Upstart Holdings (UPST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.76B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.96M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 65.4
• Beta (1Y): 3.51
• Revenue Growth: 73.29%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,193
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.46
• Shares Outstanding: 98,061,280
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,459,193
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,961,426
• PEG Ratio: -0.56
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.90
• P/FCF Ratio: -25.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.44
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.70
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.89
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 50.30
• 1Y Price Target: $49.70
• Price Target Upside: 76.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.14
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.41B

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $27.00 ▼(-4.05% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/19/26

The score is held back primarily by inconsistent cash generation (negative 2025 operating/free cash flow) and clearly bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting these are improving profitability and constructive forward commentary on partner-channel economics, plus supportive corporate actions (buyback and leadership changes), though valuation remains rich and the partner-channel upside is not yet well-quantified.

Positive Factors

AI-driven underwriting and partner model

Upstart’s AI-based credit models and partner-focused distribution create a durable competitive advantage: improved credit assessment can expand borrower access while lowering default risk. The fee-based partner revenue model scales without proportional balance-sheet growth, supporting sustainable margins as integrations deepen.

Diverse partner channels with lower acquisition costs

Management cites lower acquisition costs and larger loan sizes in partner channels, which structurally improve unit economics. Lower customer acquisition expense plus higher absolute dollar margins per larger loan support durable per-loan profitability and scalable distribution if Upstart converts partners at scale.

Share repurchase and meaningful equity cushion

The $100M buyback (with $122M left under the program) coupled with a sizable equity base noted in 2025 provides capital-allocation optionality and balance-sheet resilience. This supports long-term flexibility to withstand credit cycles, invest in product development, or return capital when organic cash generation is weak.

Negative Factors

Inconsistent cash generation and negative free cash flow

Upstart’s operating and free cash flow turned roughly -$148M in 2025 after positive cash in 2024, highlighting persistent cash volatility. Weak or inconsistent cash conversion limits the company’s ability to self-fund loan growth, increases dependence on external funding, and raises execution risk for scaling partner channels over the medium term.

Multi-year earnings and margin volatility

Earnings have swung materially across cycles—strong in 2021, deep losses in 2022–2023, and a rebound in 2025—while ROE remained negative through 2024. This multi-year volatility signals sensitivity to credit and funding conditions and undermines predictability of long-term margins and partner economics.

Leverage reporting and classification uncertainty

The abrupt drop to zero reported debt in 2025 after elevated leverage in prior years creates interpretive risk: it may reflect classification changes, asset sales, or other one-offs. That ambiguity clouds true leverage and funding stability, complicating partner and investor assessment of long-term capitalization and credit exposure.

Upstart Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. Its platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to its network of the company's AI-enabled bank partners. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Upstart generates revenue primarily through fees charged to its lending partners, which include banks and credit unions. The company earns a percentage of the loan amounts it facilitates, typically ranging from 1% to 6% of the loan value. Additionally, Upstart collects interest from borrowers on the loans it issues, although the majority of its revenue comes from fees rather than interest income. The company also benefits from its proprietary technology, which helps partners optimize their lending processes and reduce default rates. Significant partnerships with financial institutions enhance Upstart's reach and contribute to its earnings, as these collaborations allow for a broader distribution of its loan offerings.

Upstart Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

2025 shows a meaningful earnings rebound (positive EBIT and net income) and revenue stabilization, but durability is still in question due to high multi-year volatility. The biggest near-term concern is the swing back to negative operating/free cash flow in 2025, and the sharp reported change in total debt to 0 in 2025 adds interpretive risk around leverage trends.

Income Statement

Revenue has recovered from the 2023 downturn, rising again in 2024 and reaching $1.04B in 2025 (+5.4%). Profitability also improved materially: the company moved from sizable losses in 2022–2024 to positive EBIT and net income in 2025. The main weakness is volatility—results swung from strong profitability in 2021 to deep losses in 2022–2023—suggesting earnings are still sensitive to the operating environment and business mix. (Note: 2025 gross profit is not provided, limiting margin trend assessment for the latest year.)

Balance Sheet

Equity and asset base are meaningful ($799M equity on $3.0B assets in 2025), which supports resilience. However, leverage was elevated in prior years (debt-to-equity above 1.6x in 2022–2023 and 2.3x in 2024), and returns on equity were negative in 2022–2024, reflecting weak profitability through that period. A key uncertainty is that 2025 shows total debt as 0, which is a very large year-over-year change versus 2024 and could reflect reporting/classification differences—so leverage improvement should be interpreted cautiously.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has been inconsistent. After positive operating and free cash flow in 2024 (~$186M and ~$185M), 2025 swung back to negative operating and free cash flow (both about -$148M). Earlier years also showed pressure, with notably large cash outflow in 2022 and negative cash flow again in 2023, highlighting volatility in working capital and/or funding dynamics. While free cash flow tracked net income closely in 2023–2024, the 2025 reversal is a clear near-term concern for liquidity and self-funding capacity.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.08B	676.96M	547.72M	853.29M	849.89M
Gross Profit	1.02B	628.83M	508.12M	837.76M	846.61M
EBITDA	79.16M	-107.85M	-215.12M	-95.56M	141.27M
Net Income	53.60M	-128.58M	-240.13M	-108.67M	135.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.97B	2.37B	2.02B	1.94B	1.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	657.45M	793.61M	377.32M	432.41M	994.99M
Total Debt	1.85B	1.45B	1.10B	1.09B	795.80M
Total Liabilities	2.18B	1.73B	1.38B	1.26B	1.01B
Stockholders Equity	798.82M	633.22M	635.30M	672.43M	807.08M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-166.13M	176.34M	-123.80M	-680.77M	153.24M
Operating Cash Flow	-147.72M	186.33M	-111.71M	-657.86M	168.35M
Investing Cash Flow	-177.17M	-237.73M	-118.45M	-114.13M	-143.88M
Financing Cash Flow	405.64M	559.87M	165.49M	113.21M	855.43M

Upstart Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 28.14
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 28.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.44, below the 50-day MA of 42.58, and below the 200-day MA of 54.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.04 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.12 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UPST.

Upstart Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SEZL	72 Outperform	$2.07B	18.80	107.03%	―	88.74%	106.14%
OMF	68 Neutral	$6.47B	8.25	23.76%	6.07%	9.51%	29.38%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
LC	61 Neutral	$1.73B	13.01	9.55%	―	9.68%	94.85%
AFRM	59 Neutral	$15.95B	58.89	8.92%	―	37.00%	―
UPST	50 Neutral	$2.76B	65.44	7.49%	―	73.29%	―
NAVI	47 Neutral	$850.26M	-10.65	-1.95%	4.95%	-25.22%	-174.34%

Upstart Holdings Corporate Events

Upstart Announces Major Share Repurchase Signaling Confidence

On February 19, 2026, Upstart Holdings, Inc. announced that it had repurchased $100 million of its common stock over the prior four trading days, buying 3,193,294 shares at an average price of $31.31 per share between February 12 and February 18, 2026. The buyback, executed via open market transactions under a previously authorized $400 million repurchase program, leaves $122 million still available and signals management’s willingness to deploy capital toward share repurchases, potentially supporting the stock and reflecting confidence in the company’s valuation and long-term prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (UPST) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Upstart Holdings stock, see the UPST Stock Forecast page.

Upstart Announces CEO Transition and Broader Leadership Reshuffle

On February 10, 2026, Upstart announced a major leadership reshuffle, naming co-founder and current Chief Technology Officer Paul Gu as Chief Executive Officer effective May 1, 2026, with outgoing CEO Dave Girouard shifting to Executive Chairman and receiving a sharply reduced salary. Gu’s compensation package includes a significant grant of performance-based restricted stock units tied to Upstart’s relative total shareholder return over a four-year period against peers in the F-Prime Fintech Index, underscoring the board’s emphasis on long-term, market-based performance alignment.

The company also elevated Sanjay Datta to President and Chief Capital Officer effective immediately, while appointing former Cityblock Health CFO Andrea Blankmeyer as Chief Financial Officer starting March 16, 2026, with Datta retaining CFO duties until that date. Both Datta and Blankmeyer received substantial equity awards and performance-linked incentives, signaling Upstart’s effort to strengthen its finance and capital markets bench as it navigates a competitive fintech landscape and seeks to tie executive rewards more tightly to shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (UPST) stock is a Hold with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Upstart Holdings stock, see the UPST Stock Forecast page.