Upstart Holdings (UPST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.56B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 6.24M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 204.1
• Beta (1Y): 3.56
• Revenue Growth: 73.29%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,193
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.52
• Shares Outstanding: 97,286,480
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,631,747
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,240,356
• PEG Ratio: 0.86
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.70
• Price to Sales (P/S): 8.14
• P/FCF Ratio: 29.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.47
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.76
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.33
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 119.17
• 1Y Price Target: $56.45
• Price Target Upside: 15.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.68
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.04B

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $46.00 ▼(-5.78% Downside)

Upstart Holdings' overall stock score is primarily influenced by its strong earnings call performance, which highlights significant revenue growth and strategic advancements. However, this is offset by financial performance challenges, including high leverage and negative operating cash flow, as well as technical indicators suggesting bearish momentum. The high P/E ratio further indicates overvaluation concerns.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for Upstart's services, reflecting successful market penetration and product adoption, which supports long-term business expansion.

Product Diversification

Diversification into new product segments reduces reliance on a single revenue stream, enhancing resilience against market fluctuations and supporting sustainable growth.

Partnership Expansion

Expanding partnerships with financial institutions strengthens Upstart's market position and increases its funding capacity, supporting long-term scalability and operational efficiency.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses a risk to financial stability, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.

Negative Operating Cash Flow

Negative operating cash flow suggests challenges in covering operational expenses, which could strain liquidity and impact the company's ability to sustain growth and innovation.

Profitability Concerns

Low profitability margins indicate operational inefficiencies, which may hinder the company's ability to reinvest in its business and compete effectively in the long term.

Upstart Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a technology-driven lending platform that aims to improve access to affordable credit. Founded in 2012 and headquartered in San Mateo, California, the company leverages artificial intelligence and machine learning to evaluate creditworthiness, enabling personal loans for consumers who may not qualify through traditional methods. Upstart operates primarily in the financial technology sector, providing services that facilitate personal loans, and partnering with banks and credit unions to enhance their lending capabilities.

How the Company Makes Money

Upstart generates revenue primarily through fees charged to its lending partners, which include banks and credit unions. The company earns a percentage of the loan amounts it facilitates, typically ranging from 1% to 6% of the loan value. Additionally, Upstart collects interest from borrowers on the loans it issues, although the majority of its revenue comes from fees rather than interest income. The company also benefits from its proprietary technology, which helps partners optimize their lending processes and reduce default rates. Significant partnerships with financial institutions enhance Upstart's reach and contribute to its earnings, as these collaborations allow for a broader distribution of its loan offerings.

Upstart Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Upstart Holdings shows moderate revenue growth and strong gross margins, but faces challenges with profitability and high leverage. While free cash flow growth is positive, negative operating cash flow highlights cash management issues. The company shows potential for recovery but must address profitability and leverage concerns to improve financial health.

Income Statement

Upstart Holdings shows a positive revenue growth rate of 12.88% TTM, indicating a recovery from previous declines. The gross profit margin remains strong at 65.66%, but the net profit margin is low at 3.28%, reflecting limited profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also low, suggesting operational challenges. Overall, the income statement reflects moderate growth with profitability concerns.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 2.43 from higher levels, indicating a reduction in leverage, but it remains high. Return on equity is positive at 4.64% TTM, showing some profitability. However, the high debt levels pose a risk to financial stability. The balance sheet reflects a mixed picture with high leverage and moderate equity returns.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow growth is strong at 66% TTM, but operating cash flow is negative, indicating cash management issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, showing efficient cash conversion, but the negative operating cash flow is a concern. Overall, cash flow performance is mixed with growth in free cash flow but challenges in operating cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	989.98M	676.96M	547.72M	853.29M	849.89M	230.08M
Gross Profit	912.20M	628.83M	508.12M	837.76M	846.61M	222.05M
EBITDA	56.13M	-107.85M	-215.12M	-95.56M	141.27M	8.23M
Net Income	32.21M	-128.58M	-240.13M	-108.67M	135.44M	5.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.90B	2.37B	2.02B	1.94B	1.82B	477.25M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	494.89M	793.61M	377.32M	432.41M	994.99M	258.77M
Total Debt	1.90B	1.45B	1.10B	1.09B	795.80M	82.06M
Total Liabilities	2.16B	1.73B	1.38B	1.26B	1.01B	177.00M
Stockholders Equity	743.72M	633.22M	635.30M	672.43M	807.08M	300.25M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-373.55M	185.49M	-162.02M	-697.59M	153.24M	10.09M
Operating Cash Flow	-367.20M	186.33M	-160.49M	-674.68M	168.35M	15.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-386.82M	-237.73M	-118.45M	-114.13M	-143.88M	136.52M
Financing Cash Flow	935.16M	559.87M	214.27M	130.03M	855.43M	79.05M

Upstart Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 48.82
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 48.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.79, above the 50-day MA of 45.74, and below the 200-day MA of 55.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.11 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for UPST.

Upstart Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OMF	81 Outperform	$7.58B	10.92	21.41%	6.20%	9.51%	29.38%
SEZL	76 Outperform	$2.37B	22.17	107.03%	―	88.74%	106.14%
LC	70 Outperform	$2.21B	21.62	7.40%	―	9.68%	94.85%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
AFRM	66 Neutral	$22.48B	101.39	7.60%	―	37.00%	―
UPST	55 Neutral	$4.56B	204.13	4.81%	―	73.29%	―
NAVI	55 Neutral	$1.21B	―	-1.95%	5.14%	-25.22%	-174.34%

Upstart Holdings Corporate Events

Upstart Holdings Q3 Earnings: Robust Growth Amid Caution

Upstart Holdings, Inc.’s recent Q3 earnings call painted a picture of robust financial health and strategic growth, tempered by cautious adjustments in response to macroeconomic conditions. The company demonstrated strong financial performance and significant growth in transaction volume, alongside progress in new product segments. However, conservative model adjustments led to reduced conversion rates and a slight shortfall in transaction revenue expectations.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. Reports Strong Revenue Growth and Profitability

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that leverages artificial intelligence to enhance the consumer lending process, primarily operating within the financial services sector. The company provides a cloud-based AI lending platform that connects borrowers with lending partners, aiming to improve access to affordable credit.

Upstart Holdings Issues $690M Convertible Notes

On August 14, 2025, Upstart Holdings issued $690 million in 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032. The issuance aims to manage existing debt and fund general corporate purposes. The company also engaged in capped call transactions to mitigate potential stock dilution. The notes, which are senior unsecured obligations, offer conversion options under specific conditions and have implications for the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (UPST) stock is a Hold with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Upstart Holdings stock, see the UPST Stock Forecast page.