Upstart Holdings (UPST)
NASDAQ:UPST
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Upstart Holdings
(NASDAQ:UPST)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$28.00
▲(2.53% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/11/26
The score is held back primarily by weak technicals (stock well below key moving averages with negative MACD) and stretched valuation (high P/E with no dividend). Financials show an improving earnings picture in 2025, but the return to negative operating/free cash flow and balance-sheet reporting uncertainty limit confidence; earnings-call commentary and recent corporate actions are constructive but not yet sufficiently quantified to offset these risks.
Positive Factors
AI-driven underwriting platform
Upstart’s AI-first underwriting and decisioning is a durable competitive advantage: ongoing model improvements and proprietary data can reduce default rates, automate scoring and scale across partners. Over months this supports higher throughput, lower unit costs and persistent differentiation versus legacy credit models.
Negative Factors
Volatile cash generation
Sharp swings in operating and free cash flow undermine durable self-funding capacity and increase reliance on external capital or partner funding. Persistent cash volatility complicates investment planning, buybacks, and capital buffers, raising liquidity and execution risk over the coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
AI-driven underwriting platform
Upstart’s AI-first underwriting and decisioning is a durable competitive advantage: ongoing model improvements and proprietary data can reduce default rates, automate scoring and scale across partners. Over months this supports higher throughput, lower unit costs and persistent differentiation versus legacy credit models.
Read all positive factors
Upstart Holdings (UPST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.69B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)78.3
Beta (1Y)3.37
Revenue Growth73.29%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,193
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.46
Shares Outstanding98,061,280
10 Day Avg. Volume3,566,525
30 Day Avg. Volume4,742,589
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.56
Price to Book (P/B)5.26
Price to Sales (P/S)3.90
P/FCF Ratio-25.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.61
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda49.02
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.27Price Target Upside65.76% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)1.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.41B
Upstart Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. Its platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to its network of the company's AI...
How the Company Makes Money
Upstart primarily makes money by providing its lending platform to partner financial institutions and earning fees tied to loan origination and related services rather than by acting as a traditional bank. Key revenue streams include: (1) Platform...
Upstart Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Transaction Volume
Indicates the total number of transactions processed, reflecting the company's market activity and potential revenue growth.
Indicates the total number of transactions processed, reflecting the company's market activity and potential revenue growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUpstart Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed optimism about improved unit economics driven by larger loan sizes and lower acquisition costs across diverse partner channels, but this optimism is tempered by uncertainty and a lack of quantitative measurement of channel-level contribution. Overall, the messaging is forward-looking and positive in tone, though reliant on assumptions yet to be validated.Positive Updates
Diverse Partner Channels
Management noted a diverse mix of partner channels for the business, comparable to the company's personal loan partner channels, indicating broad distribution and potential reach. No specific channel mix percentages were provided in the transcript.
Negative Updates
Uncertain Channel Contribution Dynamics
Company stated it has not yet observed specific dynamics measuring how contribution margins will vary across different sales and delivery channels, reflecting uncertainty about exact profitability by channel.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Diverse Partner Channels
Management noted a diverse mix of partner channels for the business, comparable to the company's personal loan partner channels, indicating broad distribution and potential reach. No specific channel mix percentages were provided in the transcript.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the 2026-02-10 call (FY2025, Period 4), management guided that using partner channels—comparable to its personal loan partner channels—creates a diverse mix with generally lower acquisition costs and an expected positive net upfront economic impact; specifically, they said substantially larger loan sizes should produce more dollars of margin even at a moderate percentage take rate. They noted that a mix of sales and delivery channels could drive higher dollar contribution despite potentially lower percentage economics, but they have not yet quantified contribution impacts by channel, and emphasized that at a given contribution margin the absolute dollar contribution from these larger loans can be materially attractive.Upstart Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
55
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.08B | 676.96M | 547.72M | 853.29M | 849.89M |
| Gross Profit | 1.02B | 628.83M | 508.12M | 837.76M | 846.61M |
| EBITDA | 79.16M | -107.85M | -215.12M | -95.56M | 141.27M |
| Net Income | 53.60M | -128.58M | -240.13M | -108.67M | 135.44M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.97B | 2.37B | 2.02B | 1.94B | 1.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 657.45M | 793.61M | 377.32M | 432.41M | 994.99M |
| Total Debt | 1.85B | 1.45B | 1.10B | 1.09B | 795.80M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.18B | 1.73B | 1.38B | 1.26B | 1.01B |
| Stockholders Equity | 798.82M | 633.22M | 635.30M | 672.43M | 807.08M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -166.13M | 176.34M | -123.80M | -680.77M | 153.24M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -147.72M | 186.33M | -111.71M | -657.86M | 168.35M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -177.17M | -237.73M | -118.45M | -114.13M | -143.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 405.64M | 559.87M | 165.49M | 113.21M | 855.43M |
Upstart Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
27.31
Price Trends
29.99
Negative
37.61
Negative
50.37
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.96
Negative
49.40
Neutral
69.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 27.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.30, below the 50-day MA of 29.99, and below the 200-day MA of 50.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for UPST.
Upstart Holdings Risk Analysis
Upstart Holdings disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Upstart Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Upstart Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $2.34B | 16.17 | 91.62% | ― | 88.74% | 106.14% | |
68 Neutral | $6.64B | 10.25 | 23.40% | 6.07% | 9.51% | 29.38% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
61 Neutral | $1.72B | 16.10 | 9.47% | ― | 9.68% | 94.85% | |
59 Neutral | $16.33B | 48.00 | 8.83% | ― | 37.00% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $789.24M | -54.17 | -3.16% | 4.95% | -25.22% | -174.34% | |
49 Neutral | $2.69B | 78.35 | 7.29% | ― | 73.29% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
UPST
Upstart Holdings
27.41
-11.14
-28.90%
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-23.18%
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AFRM
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49.01
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SEZL
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69.12
32.70
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Upstart Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Upstart Plans AI-Driven National Bank and Bank Holding Company
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
On March 10, 2026, Upstart announced plans to apply to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to establish an insured national bank, Upstart Bank, N.A., and to seek Federal Reserve approval to b...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Upstart Announces Major Share Repurchase Signaling Confidence
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, Upstart Holdings, Inc. announced that it had repurchased $100 million of its common stock over the prior four trading days, buying 3,193,294 shares at an average price of $31.31 per share between February 12 and February 18, ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Upstart Announces CEO Transition and Broader Leadership Reshuffle
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, Upstart announced a major leadership reshuffle, naming co-founder and current Chief Technology Officer Paul Gu as Chief Executive Officer effective May 1, 2026, with outgoing CEO Dave Girouard shifting to Executive Chairman a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.