Upstart Holdings (UPST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.62B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.55M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 3.97
• Revenue Growth: 34.69%
• EPS Growth: 63.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,193
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 76
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.33
• Shares Outstanding: 95,144,860
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,944,354
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,550,900
• PEG Ratio: 0.86
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.70
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 29.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.42
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.29
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -5.14
• 1Y Price Target: $64.00
• Price Target Upside: 8.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $61.00 ▲(3.25%Upside)

Upstart Holdings demonstrates strong growth potential, driven by revenue increases and technological advancements. However, profitability challenges and high leverage present risks. The company's optimistic outlook for future profitability and growth supports a moderately favorable score.

Positive Factors

Market Position

UPST is viewed as a share gainer in the digital lending space, with improved funding stack and model improvements expected to support an acceleration in growth moving forward.

Profitability Outlook

The company did reaffirm its commitment to returning to GAAP profitability in 2H25, which is believed to be a positive catalyst.

Technological Advancements

AI-powered credit score unlocks lending opportunities, providing additional loan origination to bank partners.

Negative Factors

Credit Market Conditions

Soft 2Q25 guidance signals cautiousness, reflecting cautiousness in near-term credit appetite amid uncertainty.

Financial Guidance

2Q25 revenue guidance of USD225mn disappointed markets, as management cited potential re-inflation could make things less affordable for consumers.

Valuation Concerns

Remain Equal-weight given UPST is still trading at ~62x GAAP EPS estimate, and would look to become more constructive if durable evidence of model improvements is seen.

Upstart Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. Its platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to its network of the company's AI-enabled bank partners. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Upstart Holdings makes money by charging fees to its banking and credit union partners for originating loans through its platform. The company earns revenue from referral fees each time a loan is originated and from platform fees for loans originated by its bank partners. Additionally, Upstart generates revenue through servicing fees, which are collected for managing loans on behalf of their partners. The company's AI-driven model allows it to assess risk more accurately, potentially leading to lower default rates and better terms for borrowers, which enhances its attractiveness to lenders and helps drive its revenue streams. Upstart's significant partnerships with various financial institutions enable it to scale its operations and reach a broader consumer base.

Upstart Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Upstart Holdings is showing positive signs of revenue growth and improved cash flow management. However, it faces challenges with profitability and high financial leverage, which could pose risks in a volatile market.

Income Statement

Upstart Holdings has shown a positive revenue growth of 14.7% TTM, indicating a recovery from previous periods. However, the company continues to face profitability challenges, with a negative EBIT margin of -14.9% TTM and net profit margin of -9.2% TTM, reflecting ongoing operational losses.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 2.04, indicating leveraged financial structure which could be risky in a volatile market. However, the equity ratio of 29.5% reflects a stable asset base. Return on equity is negative due to net losses, posing a challenge to value generation for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Upstart Holdings demonstrates a substantial improvement in cash flows, with a positive operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.81 TTM. Free cash flow has also improved, suggesting efficient capital management despite negative free cash flow to net income ratio due to net losses.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
721.43M	628.83M	508.12M	837.76M	846.61M	222.05M
	Gross Profit
714.41M	628.83M	508.12M	837.76M	846.61M	222.05M
	EBIT
-107.81M	-172.86M	-256.52M	-113.86M	140.88M	11.77M
	EBITDA
-56.77M	-111.87M	-196.73M	-89.51M	152.93M	22.07M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-66.43M	-128.58M	-240.13M	-108.67M	135.44M	5.98M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
44.39M	793.61M	368.40M	422.41M	986.61M	250.82M
	Total Assets
0.00	2.37B	2.02B	1.94B	1.82B	477.25M
	Total Debt
0.00	1.45B	1.23B	1.09B	795.80M	82.06M
	Net Debt
44.39M	658.84M	860.79M	664.77M	-190.81M	-168.76M
	Total Liabilities
0.00	1.73B	1.38B	1.26B	1.01B	177.00M
	Stockholders Equity
100.86M	633.22M	635.30M	672.43M	807.08M	300.25M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
105.82M	185.49M	-172.58M	-697.59M	153.24M	10.09M
	Operating Cash Flow
120.22M	186.33M	-160.49M	-674.68M	168.35M	15.70M
	Investing Cash Flow
-278.75M	-237.73M	-118.45M	-114.13M	-143.88M	136.52M
	Financing Cash Flow
558.90M	559.87M	214.27M	130.03M	855.43M	79.05M

Upstart Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 59.08
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 59.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.99, above the 50-day MA of 48.43, and above the 200-day MA of 55.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UPST.

Upstart Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YRD	73 Outperform	$526.22M	2.86	14.69%	3.61%	12.45%	-36.64%
WRLD	68 Neutral	$846.30M	9.75	20.78%	―	-1.46%	25.24%
OMF	68 Neutral	$6.39B	11.36	17.46%	7.75%	9.07%	―
WU	66 Neutral	$2.79B	3.13	136.84%	11.14%	-5.16%	59.60%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.73B	9.92	7.90%	78.88%	12.06%	-7.95%
UPST	63 Neutral	$5.62B	―	-10.30%	―	34.69%	63.65%
LC	57 Neutral	$1.28B	24.76	3.86%	―	5.72%	31.82%

Upstart Holdings Corporate Events

Upstart Holdings Stockholders Meeting Confirms Key Decisions

Upstart Holdings, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders on May 23, 2025, where key decisions were made regarding the company’s governance and operations. The stockholders elected Class II directors to serve until 2028, ratified the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, and approved the compensation of the company’s named executive officers. These decisions are pivotal for Upstart Holdings as they ensure continuity in leadership and oversight, while also affirming the company’s financial management strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (UPST) stock is a Sell with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Upstart Holdings stock, see the UPST Stock Forecast page.

Upstart Holdings Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results

On May 6, 2025, Upstart Holdings announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, highlighting significant growth in transaction volume and revenue. The company originated 240,706 loans, marking a 102% year-over-year increase, with total originations exceeding $2.1 billion. Revenue rose by 67% year-over-year to $213 million, while the GAAP net loss improved to $2.4 million from $64.6 million in the previous year. Upstart’s positive financial outlook for the second quarter and full year of 2025 suggests continued growth, with expected revenue of approximately $1.01 billion for the year and a positive GAAP net income in the second half.