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Upstart Holdings
(NASDAQ:UPST)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$31.00
▼(-10.33% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/29/26
The score is held back primarily by weak and inconsistent cash generation and a highly leveraged balance sheet, despite improving profitability and TTM revenue growth. The latest earnings call was a meaningful positive (reiterated guidance, strong growth metrics, and funding/partner momentum), while technicals are mixed with longer-term trend pressure. Valuation is also a drag given a negative P/E and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
AI and Modeling Leadership
Upstart's measurable AI/model advantage (material accuracy gains and recovery forecasting) is a durable competitive moat. Better risk prediction supports higher risk-adjusted originations, attracts funding, and enables safer product expansion, sustaining long-term fee revenue and returns.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage and Capital Structure
High leverage (debt materially exceeding equity) constrains flexibility and raises refinancing and regulatory risk for a credit-services platform. In stressed markets this capital structure could amplify funding costs or force deleveraging, limiting durable growth options and strategic maneuvering.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
AI and Modeling Leadership
Upstart's measurable AI/model advantage (material accuracy gains and recovery forecasting) is a durable competitive moat. Better risk prediction supports higher risk-adjusted originations, attracts funding, and enables safer product expansion, sustaining long-term fee revenue and returns.
Read all positive factors
Upstart Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Transaction Volume
Indicates the total number of transactions processed, reflecting the company's market activity and potential revenue growth.
Indicates the total number of transactions processed, reflecting the company's market activity and potential revenue growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUpstart Holdings (UPST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.33B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.86M
Price to Earnings (P/E)68.2
Beta (1Y)3.46
Revenue Growth57.69%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,405
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.51
Shares Outstanding95,711,570
10 Day Avg. Volume4,905,994
30 Day Avg. Volume4,855,894
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.56
Price to Book (P/B)5.26
Price to Sales (P/S)3.90
P/FCF Ratio-25.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.19
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.41
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.56
Enterprise Value/Ebitda53.89
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$37.00Price Target Upside7.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.92
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.41B
Upstart Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other. Its platform...
How the Company Makes Money
Upstart primarily makes money by providing its lending platform to partner financial institutions and earning fees tied to loan origination and related services rather than by acting as a traditional bank. Key revenue streams include: (1) Platform...
Upstart Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a largely positive outlook: very strong top-line growth (originations +61% YoY, revenue +44% YoY), demonstrable product momentum (auto and home rapid growth, Cashline launch), clear AI/modeling advantages, and a robust capital platform (>$4B committed capital, oversubscribed securitizations, strong vintage performance). Q1 profitability and margins were pressured by seasonality, deliberate front-loaded investments (marketing, hiring, compensation), and mix effects from newer products—resulting in a modest GAAP loss and a sequential dip in contribution margin. Management reiterated full-year guidance (revenue ~ $1.4B and adjusted EBITDA $294M) and emphasized that Q1 is expected to be the low point for contribution margin. Overall, the positive operational and capital developments outweigh the transient expense- and mix-driven headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong origination and revenue growth
Q1 originations of $3.4B, up 61% year-over-year and 8% sequentially. Total revenue ~ $308M, up 44% year-over-year and 4% sequentially; fee revenue ~ $277M, up 49% year-over-year and 4% sequentially.
Negative Updates
Q1 expense pressure and margin compression
GAAP operating expenses of $516M, up 45% year-over-year and 14% sequentially. Variable expenses rose 68% year-over-year and 12% sequentially; fixed expenses up 31% year-over-year and 15% sequentially. Contribution margin declined to 50%, down 3 percentage points sequentially.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong origination and revenue growth
Q1 originations of $3.4B, up 61% year-over-year and 8% sequentially. Total revenue ~ $308M, up 44% year-over-year and 4% sequentially; fee revenue ~ $277M, up 49% year-over-year and 4% sequentially.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Upstart reiterated its full‑year 2026 guidance and three‑year outlook, calling for total revenues of approximately $1.4 billion and fee revenues of roughly $1.3 billion in 2026, with adjusted EBITDA of about $294 million (≈21% of revenues) and a three‑year annualized revenue CAGR of 35%; the guidance assumes a stable macroeconomic backdrop and that adjusted EBITDA will be weighted to the second half of the year. Management said it expects absolute contribution profit dollars to grow within at least five percentage points of fee revenue growth, that Q1 will be the low point for contribution margin, and that marketing and OpEx growth should moderate going forward. For context, Q1 originations were $3.4 billion (+61% YoY, +8% QoQ), Q1 contribution profit was ~$137 million (+34% YoY, -2% QoQ) with a 50% contribution margin (down 3 pts QoQ), Q1 adjusted EBITDA was ~ $40 million (13% margin), GAAP net loss was ~ $7 million (EPS -$0.07), loans on balance sheet were just over $1 billion, and year‑to‑date committed capital additions exceeded $4 billion with securitizations of ~ $1 billion.Upstart Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.16B | 1.08B | 676.96M | 547.72M | 853.29M | 849.89M |
| Gross Profit | 1.11B | 1.02B | 628.83M | 508.12M | 837.76M | 846.61M |
| EBITDA | 73.52M | 79.16M | -107.85M | -215.12M | -95.56M | 141.27M |
| Net Income | 49.40M | 53.60M | -128.58M | -240.13M | -108.67M | 135.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.96B | 2.97B | 2.37B | 2.02B | 1.94B | 1.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 931.33M | 657.45M | 793.61M | 377.32M | 432.41M | 994.99M |
| Total Debt | 1.98B | 1.85B | 1.45B | 1.10B | 1.09B | 795.80M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.23B | 2.18B | 1.73B | 1.38B | 1.26B | 1.01B |
| Stockholders Equity | 733.17M | 798.82M | 633.22M | 635.30M | 672.43M | 807.08M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -286.78M | -166.13M | 176.34M | -123.80M | -680.77M | 153.24M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -267.54M | -147.72M | 186.33M | -111.71M | -657.86M | 168.35M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -97.73M | -177.17M | -237.73M | -118.45M | -114.13M | -143.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 457.07M | 405.64M | 559.87M | 165.49M | 113.21M | 855.43M |
Upstart Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
34.57
Price Trends
31.36
Positive
30.09
Positive
38.75
Negative
Market Momentum
1.13
Negative
59.30
Neutral
79.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.36, above the 50-day MA of 31.36, and below the 200-day MA of 38.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UPST.
Upstart Holdings Risk Analysis
Upstart Holdings disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Upstart Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Upstart Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $6.16B | 42.42 | 90.93% | ― | 46.14% | 38.52% | |
72 Outperform | $28.33B | 73.55 | 11.17% | ― | 32.33% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $6.87B | 8.81 | 23.62% | 6.07% | 7.80% | 42.28% | |
56 Neutral | $3.33B | 68.18 | 6.59% | ― | 57.69% | ― | |
48 Neutral | $809.25M | -14.11 | -2.45% | 4.95% | -20.89% | -217.55% |
* Financial Sector Average
UPST
Upstart Holdings
34.78
-39.04
-52.89%
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Upstart Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Upstart Holdings Shareholders Approve Directors and Governance Matters
Positive
May 28, 2026
Upstart Holdings, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders on May 28, 2026, at which shareholders elected Kerry Cooper, Mary Hentges and Ciaran O’Kelly as Class III directors to serve until the 2029 annual meeting or until successors are...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Upstart Appoints Veteran Banker Tim Wennes to Board
Positive
May 19, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Upstart announced that veteran banker Tim Wennes, former President and CEO of Santander Holdings USA, will join its Board of Directors as a Class I director effective May 28, 2026, receiving standard outside director compensation ...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Upstart Plans AI-Driven National Bank and Bank Holding Company
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
On March 10, 2026, Upstart announced plans to apply to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to establish an insured national bank, Upstart Bank, N.A., and to seek Federal Reserve approval to b...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.