Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)
NASDAQ:UPST
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Upstart Holdings
(NASDAQ:UPST)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$28.00
▼(-19.00% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/19/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash flow versus earnings and elevated leverage, alongside bearish-to-weak technical signals. Offsetting these are a notably positive earnings-call outlook (reiterated 2026 guidance, strong origination/revenue growth and funding traction) and constructive corporate actions, but valuation remains challenged with a negative P/E and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Strong origination & revenue growth
Sustained double-digit originations and revenue growth show the platform is scaling across products and partners. Durable top-line momentum supports recurring fee income, higher absolute contribution dollars, and reinvestment capacity to expand product set and partner coverage over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated financial leverage
A highly leveraged capital structure constrains financial flexibility and heightens vulnerability to rising funding costs or credit stress. For a credit-platform whose earnings depend on loan volumes and funding access, elevated debt increases refinancing and covenant risk and limits strategic optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong origination & revenue growth
Sustained double-digit originations and revenue growth show the platform is scaling across products and partners. Durable top-line momentum supports recurring fee income, higher absolute contribution dollars, and reinvestment capacity to expand product set and partner coverage over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Upstart Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Transaction Volume
Indicates the total number of transactions processed, reflecting the company's market activity and potential revenue growth.
Indicates the total number of transactions processed, reflecting the company's market activity and potential revenue growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUpstart Holdings (UPST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.76B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.81M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.39
Revenue Growth57.69%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,193
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.51
Shares Outstanding95,711,570
10 Day Avg. Volume4,949,124
30 Day Avg. Volume4,807,348
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.56
Price to Book (P/B)5.26
Price to Sales (P/S)3.90
P/FCF Ratio-25.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.38
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.27
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.42
Enterprise Value/Ebitda51.80
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$37.75Price Target Upside9.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)2.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.41B
Upstart Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. Its platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to its network of the company's AI...
How the Company Makes Money
Upstart primarily makes money by providing its lending platform to partner financial institutions and earning fees tied to loan origination and related services rather than by acting as a traditional bank. Key revenue streams include: (1) Platform...
Upstart Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a largely positive outlook: very strong top-line growth (originations +61% YoY, revenue +44% YoY), demonstrable product momentum (auto and home rapid growth, Cashline launch), clear AI/modeling advantages, and a robust capital platform (>$4B committed capital, oversubscribed securitizations, strong vintage performance). Q1 profitability and margins were pressured by seasonality, deliberate front-loaded investments (marketing, hiring, compensation), and mix effects from newer products—resulting in a modest GAAP loss and a sequential dip in contribution margin. Management reiterated full-year guidance (revenue ~ $1.4B and adjusted EBITDA $294M) and emphasized that Q1 is expected to be the low point for contribution margin. Overall, the positive operational and capital developments outweigh the transient expense- and mix-driven headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong origination and revenue growth
Q1 originations of $3.4B, up 61% year-over-year and 8% sequentially. Total revenue ~ $308M, up 44% year-over-year and 4% sequentially; fee revenue ~ $277M, up 49% year-over-year and 4% sequentially.
Negative Updates
Q1 expense pressure and margin compression
GAAP operating expenses of $516M, up 45% year-over-year and 14% sequentially. Variable expenses rose 68% year-over-year and 12% sequentially; fixed expenses up 31% year-over-year and 15% sequentially. Contribution margin declined to 50%, down 3 percentage points sequentially.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong origination and revenue growth
Q1 originations of $3.4B, up 61% year-over-year and 8% sequentially. Total revenue ~ $308M, up 44% year-over-year and 4% sequentially; fee revenue ~ $277M, up 49% year-over-year and 4% sequentially.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Upstart reiterated its full‑year 2026 guidance and three‑year outlook, calling for total revenues of approximately $1.4 billion and fee revenues of roughly $1.3 billion in 2026, with adjusted EBITDA of about $294 million (≈21% of revenues) and a three‑year annualized revenue CAGR of 35%; the guidance assumes a stable macroeconomic backdrop and that adjusted EBITDA will be weighted to the second half of the year. Management said it expects absolute contribution profit dollars to grow within at least five percentage points of fee revenue growth, that Q1 will be the low point for contribution margin, and that marketing and OpEx growth should moderate going forward. For context, Q1 originations were $3.4 billion (+61% YoY, +8% QoQ), Q1 contribution profit was ~$137 million (+34% YoY, -2% QoQ) with a 50% contribution margin (down 3 pts QoQ), Q1 adjusted EBITDA was ~ $40 million (13% margin), GAAP net loss was ~ $7 million (EPS -$0.07), loans on balance sheet were just over $1 billion, and year‑to‑date committed capital additions exceeded $4 billion with securitizations of ~ $1 billion.Upstart Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.16B | 1.08B | 676.96M | 547.72M | 853.29M | 849.89M |
| Gross Profit | 1.11B | 1.02B | 628.83M | 508.12M | 837.76M | 846.61M |
| EBITDA | 73.52M | 79.16M | -107.85M | -215.12M | -95.56M | 141.27M |
| Net Income | 49.40M | 53.60M | -128.58M | -240.13M | -108.67M | 135.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.96B | 2.97B | 2.37B | 2.02B | 1.94B | 1.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 931.33M | 657.45M | 793.61M | 377.32M | 432.41M | 994.99M |
| Total Debt | 1.98B | 1.85B | 1.45B | 1.10B | 1.09B | 795.80M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.23B | 2.18B | 1.73B | 1.38B | 1.26B | 1.01B |
| Stockholders Equity | 733.17M | 798.82M | 633.22M | 635.30M | 672.43M | 807.08M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -286.78M | -166.13M | 176.34M | -123.80M | -680.77M | 153.24M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -267.54M | -147.72M | 186.33M | -111.71M | -657.86M | 168.35M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -97.73M | -177.17M | -237.73M | -118.45M | -114.13M | -143.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 457.07M | 405.64M | 559.87M | 165.49M | 113.21M | 855.43M |
Upstart Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
34.57
Price Trends
28.96
Negative
33.63
Negative
43.57
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.53
Positive
46.82
Neutral
53.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 34.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.03, above the 50-day MA of 28.96, and below the 200-day MA of 43.57, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UPST.
Upstart Holdings Risk Analysis
Upstart Holdings disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Upstart Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Upstart Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $3.53B | 10.41 | 90.93% | ― | 46.14% | 38.52% | |
73 Outperform | $22.35B | 37.53 | 11.17% | ― | 32.33% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $1.83B | 8.01 | 11.92% | ― | 17.38% | 237.98% | |
64 Neutral | $6.26B | 6.91 | 23.62% | 6.07% | 7.80% | 42.28% | |
53 Neutral | $781.05M | 11.43 | -2.45% | 4.95% | -20.89% | -217.55% | |
50 Neutral | $2.76B | -93.50 | 6.59% | ― | 57.69% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
UPST
Upstart Holdings
28.85
-16.41
-36.26%
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OMF
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53.75
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AFRM
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67.18
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SEZL
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105.45
0.14
0.13%
Upstart Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Upstart Appoints Veteran Banker Tim Wennes to Board
Positive
May 19, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Upstart announced that veteran banker Tim Wennes, former President and CEO of Santander Holdings USA, will join its Board of Directors as a Class I director effective May 28, 2026, receiving standard outside director compensation ...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Upstart Plans AI-Driven National Bank and Bank Holding Company
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
On March 10, 2026, Upstart announced plans to apply to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to establish an insured national bank, Upstart Bank, N.A., and to seek Federal Reserve approval to b...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Upstart Announces Major Share Repurchase Signaling Confidence
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, Upstart Holdings, Inc. announced that it had repurchased $100 million of its common stock over the prior four trading days, buying 3,193,294 shares at an average price of $31.31 per share between February 12 and February 18, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.