Upstart Holdings (UPST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.88B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 7.40M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 3.59
• Revenue Growth: 60.62%
• EPS Growth: 96.91%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,193
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.36
• Shares Outstanding: 96,217,740
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,014,158
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,403,920
• PEG Ratio: 0.86
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.70
• Price to Sales (P/S): 8.76
• P/FCF Ratio: 29.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.54
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.23K
• 1Y Price Target: $64.86
• Price Target Upside: 27.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $50.00 ▼(-1.38% Downside)

Upstart Holdings' overall stock score is primarily influenced by its strong earnings call performance, showcasing significant revenue growth and a return to profitability. However, financial performance remains a concern due to high leverage and negative profitability metrics. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, and valuation metrics are weak due to the negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant revenue growth reflects Upstart's expanding market presence and successful execution of its business model, indicating strong demand for its AI-driven lending platform.

Return to Profitability

Achieving profitability ahead of schedule demonstrates effective cost management and operational efficiency, enhancing long-term financial stability and investor confidence.

Loan Origination Growth

Record loan originations indicate robust demand for Upstart's services, supporting sustained revenue growth and reinforcing its competitive position in the lending market.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can increase financial risk, potentially limiting Upstart's ability to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns, affecting long-term viability.

Profitability Challenges

Struggles with profitability highlight inefficiencies in translating revenue into net income, which could hinder Upstart's ability to reinvest in its business and sustain growth.

Cash Flow Weakness

Weak cash flow performance indicates potential liquidity issues, which could constrain Upstart's operational flexibility and capacity to fund strategic initiatives.

Upstart Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a technology-driven lending platform that utilizes artificial intelligence and machine learning to streamline the loan origination process. Founded in 2012, the company primarily operates in the financial services sector, focusing on personal loans and offering its services through partnerships with banks and credit unions. Upstart aims to provide access to affordable credit for consumers who may be underserved by traditional lending institutions, leveraging non-traditional data points to assess creditworthiness.

How the Company Makes Money

Upstart generates revenue primarily through its loan origination fees and interest income. The company partners with banks to fund loans and earns a percentage of the loan amount as a fee for connecting borrowers with lenders. Additionally, Upstart retains a portion of the interest earned on the loans it originates. The company also offers ancillary services such as credit report access and financial education tools, contributing to its revenue streams. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions enhance its market reach and operational efficiency, while its proprietary technology allows for lower default rates and improved loan performance, further driving profitability.

Upstart Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Upstart Holdings shows strong revenue growth but struggles with profitability and cash flow management. High leverage and negative returns on equity highlight financial risks, necessitating improvements in profitability and cash flow generation.

Income Statement

Upstart Holdings has shown a significant revenue growth rate of 17.97% in the TTM, indicating strong top-line growth. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin remains high, but the inability to translate this into net profits is concerning.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.04 in the TTM, indicating a leveraged position which could pose risks if not managed properly. Return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's challenges in generating profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is relatively stable, suggesting some balance in asset financing.

Cash Flow

Upstart Holdings is facing challenges with cash flow, as indicated by negative operating cash flow and free cash flow in the TTM. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some efficiency in converting net income to cash, but overall cash flow performance is weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	877.03M	628.83M	508.12M	837.76M	846.61M	222.05M
Gross Profit	777.87M	628.83M	508.12M	837.76M	846.61M	222.05M
EBITDA	-6.08M	-111.87M	-196.73M	-89.51M	152.93M	22.07M
Net Income	-6.35M	-128.58M	-240.13M	-108.67M	135.44M	5.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.48B	2.37B	2.02B	1.94B	1.82B	477.25M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	400.56M	793.61M	368.40M	422.41M	986.61M	250.82M
Total Debt	1.47B	1.54B	1.23B	1.09B	795.80M	82.06M
Total Liabilities	1.76B	1.73B	1.38B	1.26B	1.01B	177.00M
Stockholders Equity	722.01M	633.22M	635.30M	672.43M	807.08M	300.25M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-68.88M	185.49M	-172.58M	-697.59M	153.24M	10.09M
Operating Cash Flow	-65.23M	186.33M	-160.49M	-674.68M	168.35M	15.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-312.48M	-237.73M	-118.45M	-114.13M	-143.88M	136.52M
Financing Cash Flow	518.56M	559.87M	214.27M	130.03M	855.43M	79.05M

Upstart Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 50.70
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 50.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.86, below the 50-day MA of 59.11, and below the 200-day MA of 59.60, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UPST.

Upstart Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OMF	―	$6.66B	10.46	20.47%	7.43%	9.41%	13.98%
SEZL	―	$2.39B	24.13	115.73%	―	92.95%	151.46%
Sector *	―	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
CACC	―	$5.16B	13.24	27.30%	―	12.63%	149.03%
LC	―	$1.98B	19.48	7.40%	―	9.68%	94.85%
NAVI	―	$1.16B	39.84	1.28%	5.48%	-25.37%	-75.77%
UPST	―	$4.88B	―	-0.96%	―	60.62%	96.91%

Upstart Holdings Corporate Events

Upstart Holdings Issues $690M Convertible Notes

On August 14, 2025, Upstart Holdings issued $690 million in 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032. The issuance aims to manage existing debt and fund general corporate purposes. The company also engaged in capped call transactions to mitigate potential stock dilution. The notes, which are senior unsecured obligations, offer conversion options under specific conditions and have implications for the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (UPST) stock is a Hold with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Upstart Holdings stock, see the UPST Stock Forecast page.

Upstart Holdings Reports Strong Q2 Earnings

The recent earnings call of Upstart Holdings, Inc. was marked by an overwhelmingly positive sentiment, highlighting the company’s impressive achievements in revenue growth, profitability, and performance in new product segments. Despite facing challenges such as increased loan balances and a competitive market environment, the positive developments and advancements were emphasized as outweighing these concerns.

Upstart Holdings Reports Strong Q2 2025 Growth

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a leading AI lending marketplace that connects consumers with banks and credit unions to offer superior credit products through advanced AI models, primarily operating in the financial technology sector.