Olaplex Holdings (OLPX)
NASDAQ:OLPX
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Olaplex Holdings
(NASDAQ:OLPX)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▼(-1.48% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score is most constrained by weak profitability despite a revenue rebound and improved leverage, with valuation also limited by losses (negative P/E). Technicals are supportive but look extended, while earnings-call guidance implies near-term margin pressure despite longer-term improvement initiatives. The pending all-cash acquisition provides incremental support but remains subject to closing conditions.
Positive Factors
Professional channel recovery
Sustained professional-channel growth is a durable competitive advantage: salon adoption drives recurring bulk purchases, brand credibility, and backbar usage that support higher lifetime unit volumes. Reengagement through education and activations reduces customer acquisition costs and strengthens wholesale distribution over quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak profitability and negative earnings
Ongoing negative net income and a negative EBIT indicate earnings quality remains impaired. Even with revenue recovery, persistent losses limit retained earnings and the company’s ability to self-fund growth or absorb setbacks, making durable margin improvement critical to long-term value creation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Professional channel recovery
Sustained professional-channel growth is a durable competitive advantage: salon adoption drives recurring bulk purchases, brand credibility, and backbar usage that support higher lifetime unit volumes. Reengagement through education and activations reduces customer acquisition costs and strengthens wholesale distribution over quarters.
Read all positive factors
Olaplex Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Sales by Geography
Examines revenue distribution across various regions, providing insight into market strength, potential growth areas, and exposure to regional economic fluctuations.
Examines revenue distribution across various regions, providing insight into market strength, potential growth areas, and exposure to regional economic fluctuations.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyOlaplex Holdings (OLPX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.36B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue Growth1.10%
EPS Growth-221.08%
CountryUS
Employees231
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.02
Shares Outstanding672,042,200
10 Day Avg. Volume754,587
30 Day Avg. Volume1,146,334
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.66
Price to Book (P/B)1.02
Price to Sales (P/S)2.11
P/FCF Ratio15.31
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.29
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.91
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.09Price Target Upside2.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$426.84M
Olaplex Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Olaplex Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hair care products. The company offers hair care shampoos and conditioners for use in treatment, maintenance, and protection of hair. It provides hair care products to professional hair salons, retaile...
How the Company Makes Money
Olaplex makes money by selling its branded haircare products. Revenue is primarily generated through product sales across multiple channels: (1) professional distribution, where products are sold for use in salons and by hair professionals; (2) sp...
Olaplex Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlights meaningful progress in brand relaunch, professional channel reengagement, a robust innovation pipeline (including the No. 3+ launch), improved gross margins, and positive operating cash flow. However, these achievements are tempered by notable margin compression versus prior year, a flat full‑year top line, continuing annual sell‑through weakness, specialty retail declines, and near‑term EBITDA pressure due to front‑loaded marketing and elevated operating spend. Management frames the moves as deliberate investments to stabilize and accelerate long‑term growth, while 2026 guidance is cautious and front‑weighted toward second‑half improvement.Positive Updates
Full-Year Net Sales and Stability
Net sales were flat at $423.0M for fiscal 2025, stabilizing after declines of 35% in 2023 and 8% in 2024; company exited the year with improving sell-through trends and positive December sell-through in key accounts.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Margin Compression YoY
Adjusted EBITDA margin declined materially to 22.2% for the year from 30.7% in the prior year; Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin was 12.2% (vs. 17.4% in Q4 2024), reflecting increased marketing and people investments.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Net Sales and Stability
Net sales were flat at $423.0M for fiscal 2025, stabilizing after declines of 35% in 2023 and 8% in 2024; company exited the year with improving sell-through trends and positive December sell-through in key accounts.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided fiscal 2026 net sales of approximately -2% to +3% versus fiscal 2025 (FY‑2025 net sales $423.0M), adjusted gross profit margin of 71%–72% (FY‑2025 adj. gross margin 71.8%; Q4 70.6%, +200 bps YoY), and adjusted EBITDA margin of 21%–22% (FY‑2025 adj. EBITDA $93.9M, 22.2%; Q4 adj. EBITDA $12.9M, 12.2%); they expect sell‑through to improve sequentially and turn positive for the year but caution Q1 sales will be below the full‑year cadence and Q1 EBITDA will be “significantly pressured” due to front‑loaded marketing supporting the No. 3+ launch, with marketing efficiency improving later in the year, non‑S&M operating expense rising as 2025 investments annualize, and the outlook assuming no material tariff impact (cash $318.7M, debt $352.3M, inventory $60.2M).Olaplex Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 425.35M | 422.96M | 422.67M | 458.30M | 704.27M | 598.37M |
| Gross Profit | 276.19M | 250.06M | 292.29M | 318.63M | 519.55M | 473.82M |
| EBITDA | 63.94M | 70.16M | 143.39M | 186.77M | 398.34M | 385.70M |
| Net Income | -15.00M | -9.25M | 19.52M | 61.59M | 244.07M | 220.78M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.46B | 1.50B | 1.77B | 1.74B | 1.70B | 1.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 326.17M | 318.73M | 585.97M | 466.40M | 322.81M | 186.39M |
| Total Debt | 352.48M | 352.29M | 650.46M | 655.77M | 662.77M | 758.20M |
| Total Liabilities | 582.21M | 618.10M | 893.32M | 895.37M | 916.72M | 1.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 877.99M | 879.39M | 874.40M | 844.97M | 780.96M | 524.30M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 68.12M | 58.33M | 138.18M | 173.92M | 254.67M | 198.26M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 69.08M | 58.66M | 143.07M | 177.53M | 255.32M | 200.03M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.90M | -12.61M | -4.89M | -3.61M | -2.68M | -6.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -311.90M | -313.29M | -18.61M | -30.33M | -116.22M | -18.34M |
Olaplex Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
2.03
Price Trends
1.64
Positive
1.52
Positive
1.42
Positive
Market Momentum
0.14
Positive
71.87
Negative
83.33
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLPX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.89, above the 50-day MA of 1.64, and above the 200-day MA of 1.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 71.87 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OLPX.
Olaplex Holdings Risk Analysis
Olaplex Holdings disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Olaplex Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Olaplex Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $5.54B | 17.26 | -25.47% | ― | 1.78% | 75.71% | |
63 Neutral | $21.79B | 20.35 | 44.07% | ― | 9.71% | 1.00% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $1.13B | 7.84 | 23.43% | ― | 0.77% | 2.73% | |
56 Neutral | $1.36B | -64.31 | -1.05% | ― | 1.10% | -221.08% | |
56 Neutral | $3.61B | 2.86 | -44.22% | 4.16% | -0.23% | -13.10% | |
52 Neutral | $8.95B | 75.03 | 51.43% | ― | 6.24% | -41.25% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
OLPX
Olaplex Holdings
2.03
0.74
57.36%
BBWI
Bath & Body Works
17.95
-14.84
-45.25%
SBH
Sally Beauty
11.83
2.74
30.14%
ULTA
Ulta Beauty
498.28
86.54
21.02%
ETSY
Etsy
58.41
11.41
24.28%
CHWY
Chewy
21.48
-19.99
-48.20%
Olaplex Holdings Corporate Events
Delistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Olaplex to Be Acquired by Henkel in Cash Deal
Positive
Mar 26, 2026
On March 26, 2026, Olaplex Holdings agreed to be acquired by Henkel US Operations Corporation in an all-cash merger that will see Olaplex become a wholly owned subsidiary and be delisted from Nasdaq, with stockholders receiving $2.06 per share, im...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.