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Olaplex Holdings (OLPX)
NASDAQ:OLPX
US Market
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Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) AI Stock Analysis

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OLPX

Olaplex Holdings

(NASDAQ:OLPX)

Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▲(4.90% Upside)
Olaplex Holdings' overall stock score is primarily influenced by its mixed financial performance and high valuation. While the company maintains strong gross profit margins and a stable balance sheet, declining revenue and profitability metrics pose challenges. The technical analysis suggests a neutral to slightly bearish outlook, and the high P/E ratio indicates potential overvaluation. The recent board appointment is a positive development but does not significantly alter the stock's current outlook.
Positive Factors
Brand strategy
Retail partners are supporting Olaplex's strategic vision to transform the brand, resulting in better than expected specialty retail sales.
Financial performance
OLPX beat its own topline expectation and consensus by 3.9%, driven by strong retailer support and successful brand positioning.
Negative Factors
Competitive landscape
Fierce competition in hair care, restructuring of the international business, and a difficult professional channel lead to a HOLD rating.
Cost management
EBITDA guidance was below consensus for 2025 due to higher marketing expenses.

Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Olaplex Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOlaplex Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hair care products. The company offers hair care shampoos and conditioners for use in treatment, maintenance, and protection of hair. It provides hair care products to professional hair salons, retailers, and everyday consumers. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Santa Barbara, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyOlaplex Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of its high-performance haircare products. The company's revenue streams include direct-to-consumer sales via its e-commerce platform, wholesale distribution to salons and professional haircare providers, and partnerships with leading retailers both online and in physical stores. Olaplex's strong brand recognition and loyal customer base contribute significantly to its earnings, as does its strategic expansion into international markets. Furthermore, partnerships with beauty industry influencers and professionals help to drive brand awareness and product adoption, enhancing overall sales performance.

Olaplex Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 1.42%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Olaplex Holdings, Inc. showed strong innovation and product launch performance, particularly during the holiday season, and made significant progress in strengthening its leadership and financial discipline. However, the company faced challenges with declining sales and EBITDA, particularly in international markets and the professional channel, with marketing investments taking longer than expected to yield results.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Performance of New Product Launches
The No. 5 Leave-In Conditioner outperformed expectations and remained a top-five SKU within its subcategory at Sephora by year-end. Olaplex Holdings, Inc. also had the number one set in US prestige hair care during the 2024 holiday season according to Circana data.
Improved Holiday Season Sales
Enhanced marketing efforts led to improving sales trends across channels and regions throughout the holiday season, with olaplex.com being a bright spot. The company was the top-performing US hair care brand during Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Leadership and Team Building
Olaplex Holdings, Inc. strengthened its executive leadership with key hires such as Catherine Dunleavy as COO and CFO, Katie Goeman as Chief Marketing Officer, and Michelle Brett as Chief Revenue Officer.
Innovation in Hair Health
Launched No. 0.5 Scalp Longevity Treatment and announced plans for further innovation targeting foundational hair health, highlighting the company's focus on expanding beyond damage repair.
Financial Discipline and Strong Balance Sheet
Year-end cash and cash equivalents increased to $586 million, an improvement of $120 million from the previous year. Inventory declined by $20.7 million, showing effective working capital management.
Negative Updates
Decline in Overall Sales and EBITDA
Net sales were $422.7 million, representing a decline of 7.8% from 2023. Adjusted EBITDA was $129.7 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 30.7%, both below 2023 levels.
International Market Challenges
Faced headwinds internationally as the company focused on resetting business for the future, impacting sales performance negatively.
Professional Channel Sales Decline
Professional channel sales declined by 27.1% year over year, with a greater impact from focusing on partnering with fewer but stronger international distributors.
Delayed Impact of Marketing Investments
The investment in marketing took longer than expected to improve demand across SKUs, impacting sales performance.
Company Guidance
During the Olaplex Holdings, Inc. Fourth Quarter 2024 earnings call, the company provided guidance for fiscal 2025, indicating an expected net sales range between a 3% decline and a 2% increase compared to 2024. The adjusted gross margin is anticipated to remain strong, ranging from 70.5% to 71.5%, while the adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to be between 20% and 22%. The company emphasized its three strategic priorities for the year: generating brand demand, harnessing innovation, and executing with excellence. These priorities are expected to support the company's transformation and position it for long-term profitable growth. Additionally, Olaplex plans to continue investing in talent and marketing, particularly in the U.S. market, to reinforce its brand positioning as a leader in foundational hair health and beauty.

Olaplex Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Olaplex Holdings shows a mixed financial performance. The gross profit margin is strong at 66%, yet revenue and profitability margins have declined. Despite moderate balance sheet stability and efficient cash generation, decreasing cash flow and revenue pose challenges.
Income Statement
64
Positive
Olaplex Holdings shows a mixed income statement performance. The gross profit margin for TTM is approximately 66%, indicating strong cost management. However, revenue has decreased compared to previous years, with a notable decline from 2022 to 2025. The net profit margin has also declined, reflecting reduced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain positive but have decreased over recent periods, indicating challenges in maintaining operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects moderate stability with a debt-to-equity ratio around 0.74 for TTM, indicating a manageable level of leverage. The equity ratio is about 49.6%, showing a stable financial structure. Return on equity (ROE) has decreased over time, signaling reduced profitability relative to equity. The company maintains a strong cash position, providing liquidity to manage obligations.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Olaplex’s cash flow statement shows a decline in free cash flow growth and operating cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. Operating cash flow to net income ratio also remains positive, although declining, highlighting operational cash efficiency but also pointing to potential cash flow challenges if the trend continues.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue422.67M458.30M704.27M598.37M282.25M
Gross Profit292.29M318.63M519.55M473.82M179.59M
EBITDA143.39M186.77M398.96M385.70M164.97M
Net Income19.52M61.59M244.07M220.78M39.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.77B1.74B1.70B1.56B1.33B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments585.97M466.40M322.81M186.39M10.96M
Total Debt650.46M655.77M662.77M758.20M775.48M
Total Liabilities893.32M895.37M916.72M1.04B802.16M
Stockholders Equity874.40M844.97M780.96M524.30M530.67M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow143.07M173.92M254.67M198.26M128.95M
Operating Cash Flow143.07M177.53M255.32M200.03M128.97M
Investing Cash Flow-4.89M-3.61M-2.68M-6.26M-1.38B
Financing Cash Flow-18.61M-30.33M-116.22M-18.34M1.26B

Olaplex Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1.43
Price Trends
50DMA
1.43
Positive
100DMA
1.35
Positive
200DMA
1.54
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Positive
RSI
49.37
Neutral
STOCH
40.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLPX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.44, above the 50-day MA of 1.43, and below the 200-day MA of 1.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OLPX.

Olaplex Holdings Risk Analysis

Olaplex Holdings disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Olaplex Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Olaplex Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$22.93B20.1650.44%1.06%-0.29%
77
Outperform
$1.18B6.4928.94%-0.38%35.78%
62
Neutral
$6.12B7.73-52.83%2.77%-0.93%-4.07%
61
Neutral
$16.55B10.12-9.03%3.33%1.44%-22.51%
60
Neutral
$1.20B-58.93%-10.55%9.27%
56
Neutral
$952.27M77.051.41%-5.11%-74.90%
54
Neutral
$803.23M-16.81%0.23%26.92%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
OLPX
Olaplex Holdings
1.43
-0.53
-27.04%
BBWI
Bath & Body Works
28.93
-2.11
-6.80%
SBH
Sally Beauty
11.66
1.36
13.20%
ULTA
Ulta Beauty
510.17
183.06
55.96%
YSG
Yatsen Holding
8.71
4.93
130.42%
TDUP
thredUP
10.23
9.53
1361.43%

Olaplex Holdings Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Olaplex Holdings Appoints Jerome Griffith to Board
Positive
Jul 22, 2025

On July 20, 2025, Olaplex Holdings, Inc. announced the election of Jerome Griffith as a Class I director of its Board, with his term set to expire at the 2028 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. Griffith brings a wealth of experience from the retail and consumer goods sectors, having held prominent leadership roles at companies such as Brown Jordan Inc., Lands’ End, Inc., and Tumi Holdings, Inc. This strategic appointment is expected to strengthen Olaplex’s board with Griffith’s extensive industry expertise and leadership background.

The most recent analyst rating on (OLPX) stock is a Hold with a $1.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Olaplex Holdings stock, see the OLPX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Olaplex Holdings Announces Board Changes at Annual Meeting
Neutral
Jun 12, 2025

On June 10, 2025, Olaplex Holdings, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where it was announced that Paula Zusi would not be re-elected to the Board of Directors, marking the end of her term. During the meeting, stockholders elected three Class I directors for a three-year term, approved executive compensation for the fiscal year 2024, and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (OLPX) stock is a Hold with a $1.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Olaplex Holdings stock, see the OLPX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 08, 2025