Olaplex Holdings (OLPX)
NASDAQ:OLPX
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Olaplex Holdings
(NASDAQ:OLPX)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▼(-23.08% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
Overall score reflects weakened financial performance (return to net losses, margin compression, and declining free cash flow) as the primary drag. Technicals add near-term caution with the stock below key short-term moving averages. The earnings call provides some support via steady gross margins, liquidity, and guidance pointing to stabilization later in FY2026, but modest sales guidance and near-term EBITDA pressure keep the risk profile elevated.
Positive Factors
High gross margins
Sustained ~71% adjusted gross margins provide structural pricing/production advantage in prestige haircare. That margin buffer supports reinvestment in marketing, R&D and channel initiatives while insulating the business from some top‑line softness, improving odds of profitable recovery over several quarters.
Negative Factors
Profitability deterioration
A move to negative net margins signals structural pressure on operating profitability and reduces internal funding for growth. Reversing this decline requires sustained revenue improvement or durable cost reductions; absent that, the company risks prolonged earnings weakness and reduced return on invested capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High gross margins
Sustained ~71% adjusted gross margins provide structural pricing/production advantage in prestige haircare. That margin buffer supports reinvestment in marketing, R&D and channel initiatives while insulating the business from some top‑line softness, improving odds of profitable recovery over several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$876.92M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.38
Revenue Growth-3.47%
EPS Growth-111.68%
CountryUS
Employees231
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.01
Shares Outstanding669,402,650
10 Day Avg. Volume754,587
30 Day Avg. Volume1,146,334
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.66
Price to Book (P/B)1.02
Price to Sales (P/S)2.11
P/FCF Ratio15.31
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.40
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$1.83Price Target Upside40.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$427.18M
Olaplex Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Olaplex Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hair care products. The company offers hair care shampoos and conditioners for use in treatment, maintenance, and protection of hair. It provides hair care products to professional hair salons, retaile...
How the Company Makes Money
Olaplex makes money primarily by selling branded haircare products. Its revenue model is centered on product sales through two main channels: (1) Professional (sales to salons, stylists, and professional distributors), where products are used in-s...
Olaplex Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Sales by Geography
Examines revenue distribution across various regions, providing insight into market strength, potential growth areas, and exposure to regional economic fluctuations.
Examines revenue distribution across various regions, providing insight into market strength, potential growth areas, and exposure to regional economic fluctuations.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyOlaplex Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlights meaningful progress in brand relaunch, professional channel reengagement, a robust innovation pipeline (including the No. 3+ launch), improved gross margins, and positive operating cash flow. However, these achievements are tempered by notable margin compression versus prior year, a flat full‑year top line, continuing annual sell‑through weakness, specialty retail declines, and near‑term EBITDA pressure due to front‑loaded marketing and elevated operating spend. Management frames the moves as deliberate investments to stabilize and accelerate long‑term growth, while 2026 guidance is cautious and front‑weighted toward second‑half improvement.Positive Updates
Full-Year Net Sales and Stability
Net sales were flat at $423.0M for fiscal 2025, stabilizing after declines of 35% in 2023 and 8% in 2024; company exited the year with improving sell-through trends and positive December sell-through in key accounts.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Margin Compression YoY
Adjusted EBITDA margin declined materially to 22.2% for the year from 30.7% in the prior year; Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin was 12.2% (vs. 17.4% in Q4 2024), reflecting increased marketing and people investments.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Net Sales and Stability
Net sales were flat at $423.0M for fiscal 2025, stabilizing after declines of 35% in 2023 and 8% in 2024; company exited the year with improving sell-through trends and positive December sell-through in key accounts.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided fiscal 2026 net sales of approximately -2% to +3% versus fiscal 2025 (FY‑2025 net sales $423.0M), adjusted gross profit margin of 71%–72% (FY‑2025 adj. gross margin 71.8%; Q4 70.6%, +200 bps YoY), and adjusted EBITDA margin of 21%–22% (FY‑2025 adj. EBITDA $93.9M, 22.2%; Q4 adj. EBITDA $12.9M, 12.2%); they expect sell‑through to improve sequentially and turn positive for the year but caution Q1 sales will be below the full‑year cadence and Q1 EBITDA will be “significantly pressured” due to front‑loaded marketing supporting the No. 3+ launch, with marketing efficiency improving later in the year, non‑S&M operating expense rising as 2025 investments annualize, and the outlook assuming no material tariff impact (cash $318.7M, debt $352.3M, inventory $60.2M).Olaplex Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 422.96M | 422.67M | 458.30M | 704.27M | 598.37M |
| Gross Profit | 250.06M | 292.29M | 318.63M | 519.55M | 473.82M |
| EBITDA | 70.16M | 143.39M | 186.77M | 398.34M | 385.70M |
| Net Income | -9.25M | 19.52M | 61.59M | 244.07M | 220.78M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.50B | 1.77B | 1.74B | 1.70B | 1.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 318.73M | 585.97M | 466.40M | 322.81M | 186.39M |
| Total Debt | 352.29M | 650.46M | 655.77M | 662.77M | 758.20M |
| Total Liabilities | 618.10M | 893.32M | 895.37M | 916.72M | 1.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 879.39M | 874.40M | 844.97M | 780.96M | 524.30M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 58.33M | 138.18M | 173.92M | 254.67M | 198.26M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 58.66M | 143.07M | 177.53M | 255.32M | 200.03M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -12.61M | -4.89M | -3.61M | -2.68M | -6.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -313.29M | -18.61M | -30.33M | -116.22M | -18.34M |
Olaplex Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
1.30
Price Trends
1.50
Negative
1.36
Negative
1.37
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Positive
42.86
Neutral
46.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLPX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.39, below the 50-day MA of 1.50, and below the 200-day MA of 1.37, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OLPX.
Olaplex Holdings Risk Analysis
Olaplex Holdings disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Olaplex Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Olaplex Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $1.34B | 7.65 | 23.43% | ― | -0.42% | 31.64% | |
63 Neutral | $22.90B | 20.35 | 44.07% | ― | 5.45% | 4.28% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $3.74B | 7.11 | -44.22% | 4.16% | -1.04% | -20.88% | |
55 Neutral | $4.76B | 33.41 | -15.36% | ― | 1.98% | -20.98% | |
55 Neutral | $9.73B | 57.58 | 55.17% | ― | 9.80% | -46.84% | |
46 Neutral | $876.92M | -96.53 | -1.05% | ― | -3.47% | -111.68% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
OLPX
Olaplex Holdings
1.30
0.02
1.56%
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38.54%
ETSY
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CHWY
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.