Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $839.06M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.19M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 68.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.40
• Revenue Growth: -5.11%
• EPS Growth: -74.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: 231
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): <0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 665,922,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 974,993
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,194,766
• PEG Ratio: 1.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.33
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.44
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.17
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.41
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.05
• 1Y Price Target: $2.19
• Price Target Upside: 73.81% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▲(19.05%Upside)

Olaplex Holdings' overall score reflects solid technical and financial fundamentals, but challenges like declining revenues and high P/E ratio weigh down the score. The recent appointment of an experienced director is a positive development, adding strength to its governance.

Positive Factors

Brand Strategy

Retail partners are supporting Olaplex's strategic vision to transform the brand, resulting in better than expected specialty retail sales for the quarter.

Earnings

OLPX reported 4Q24 results that came in ahead of guidance and Street expectations, leading to an adjusted EBITDA beat.

Market Positioning

The prestige haircare category has a substantial runway for growth, and management believes Olaplex is well positioned to capitalize on this trend.

Negative Factors

Competition

There is fierce competition in hair care, restructuring of the international business, and a difficult pro channel, leading to a HOLD rating.

Financial Performance

EBITDA margin compression is expected to fall by ~9.5 percentage points at the mid-point as management aggressively invests in the US marketing.

International Markets

Professional channel sales declined 10.9% yoy, largely driven by continued softness in international markets.

Olaplex Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Olaplex Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hair care products. The company offers hair care shampoos and conditioners for use in treatment, maintenance, and protection of hair. It provides hair care products to professional hair salons, retailers, and everyday consumers. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Santa Barbara, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Olaplex Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of its high-performance haircare products. The company's revenue streams include direct-to-consumer sales via its e-commerce platform, wholesale distribution to salons and professional haircare providers, and partnerships with leading retailers both online and in physical stores. Olaplex's strong brand recognition and loyal customer base contribute significantly to its earnings, as does its strategic expansion into international markets. Furthermore, partnerships with beauty industry influencers and professionals help to drive brand awareness and product adoption, enhancing overall sales performance.

Olaplex Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Olaplex Holdings shows a solid financial foundation with strong margins and manageable leverage. However, declines in revenue, profitability margins, and cash flow metrics suggest challenges. The company needs to focus on reversing revenue decline and improving operational efficiency.

Income Statement

Olaplex Holdings shows a mixed income statement performance. The gross profit margin for TTM is approximately 66%, indicating strong cost management. However, revenue has decreased compared to previous years, with a notable decline from 2022 to 2025. The net profit margin has also declined, reflecting reduced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain positive but have decreased over recent periods, indicating challenges in maintaining operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects moderate stability with a debt-to-equity ratio around 0.74 for TTM, indicating a manageable level of leverage. The equity ratio is about 49.6%, showing a stable financial structure. Return on equity (ROE) has decreased over time, signaling reduced profitability relative to equity. The company maintains a strong cash position, providing liquidity to manage obligations.

Cash Flow

Olaplex’s cash flow statement shows a decline in free cash flow growth and operating cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. Operating cash flow to net income ratio also remains positive, although declining, highlighting operational cash efficiency but also pointing to potential cash flow challenges if the trend continues.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
420.74M	422.67M	458.30M	704.27M	598.37M	282.25M
	Gross Profit
277.57M	292.29M	318.63M	519.55M	473.82M	179.59M
	EBIT
55.79M	66.94M	108.22M	364.39M	334.15M	119.09M
	EBITDA
133.17M	143.39M	186.77M	398.96M	385.70M	164.97M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
12.24M	19.52M	61.59M	244.07M	220.78M	39.28M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
580.89M	585.97M	466.40M	322.81M	186.39M	10.96M
	Total Assets
1.77B	1.77B	1.74B	1.70B	1.56B	1.33B
	Total Debt
649.13M	650.46M	655.77M	662.77M	758.20M	775.48M
	Net Debt
68.24M	64.50M	189.37M	339.96M	571.81M	764.52M
	Total Liabilities
892.60M	893.32M	895.37M	916.72M	1.04B	802.16M
	Stockholders Equity
878.33M	874.40M	844.97M	780.96M	524.30M	530.67M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
94.32M	143.07M	173.92M	254.67M	198.26M	128.95M
	Operating Cash Flow
96.44M	143.07M	177.53M	255.32M	200.03M	128.97M
	Investing Cash Flow
-4.80M	-4.89M	-3.61M	-2.68M	-6.26M	-1.38B
	Financing Cash Flow
-18.25M	-18.61M	-30.33M	-116.22M	-18.34M	1.26B

Olaplex Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.26
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLPX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.30, below the 50-day MA of 1.27, and below the 200-day MA of 1.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OLPX.

Olaplex Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ULTA	78 Outperform	$20.64B	17.93	50.44%	―	1.06%	-0.29%
SBH	69 Neutral	$855.58M	4.79	29.74%	―	0.17%	20.26%
TDUP	67 Neutral	$863.20M	―	-69.51%	―	-10.55%	9.27%
OLPX	65 Neutral	$839.06M	68.85	1.41%	―	-5.11%	-74.90%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.88B	11.07	2.77%	4.28%	2.67%	-24.94%
BBWI	58 Neutral	$5.33B	6.74	-52.83%	3.17%	-0.93%	-4.07%
YSG	50 Neutral	$843.81M	―	-16.81%	―	-2.11%	-6.49%

Olaplex Holdings Corporate Events

Olaplex Holdings Announces Board Changes at Annual Meeting

On June 10, 2025, Olaplex Holdings, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where it was announced that Paula Zusi would not be re-elected to the Board of Directors, marking the end of her term. During the meeting, stockholders elected three Class I directors for a three-year term, approved executive compensation for the fiscal year 2024, and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (OLPX) stock is a Hold with a $1.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Olaplex Holdings stock, see the OLPX Stock Forecast page.

Olaplex Holdings Appoints New Interim Chief Accounting Officer

On April 23, 2025, Stephen J. Bacica resigned as Chief Accounting Officer of Olaplex Holdings, Inc. to pursue other interests, with no disagreements related to financial or operational matters. Subsequently, on April 28, 2025, Kenneth F. Egan was appointed as the Interim Chief Accounting Officer, having previously served in this role and bringing extensive experience from CrossCountry Consulting and Ernst & Young LLP.

Olaplex Holdings Appoints Pamela Edwards as Director

On March 18, 2025, Olaplex Holdings, Inc. appointed Pamela Edwards as a Class II director and a member of the Audit Committee, effective March 19, 2025. Ms. Edwards brings extensive experience in finance and operations leadership from her previous roles at Citi Trends, L Brands, and other major retail companies, potentially strengthening Olaplex’s strategic and financial oversight.