Ulta Beauty (ULTA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $18.38B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 709.39K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.66
• Revenue Growth: 0.79%
• EPS Growth: -2.70%
• Country: US
• Employees: 20,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 76
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 8.46
• Shares Outstanding: 45,147,877
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 671,974
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 709,394
• PEG Ratio: 10.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.51
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.03
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.42
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.33
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.59
• 1Y Price Target: $425.57
• Price Target Upside: 4.55% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 24

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: ―

Ulta Beauty's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and sound valuation, tempered by mixed technical indicators and cautious guidance from the earnings call. The company's strategic investments in growth and efficiency are promising, but challenges like market share loss and inflationary pressures present risks. The score indicates a stable, yet cautious outlook for Ulta Beauty in the specialty retail industry.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Analysts see a favorable risk/reward into 1Q EPS.

Market Position

ULTA is benefiting from a unique combination of mass and prestige products, leading to share gains and improved margin flowthrough.

Product Pipeline

A successful 21 Days of Beauty event and a stronger product pipeline drove upside.

Negative Factors

Competitive Environment

The competitive environment remains intense with significantly expanded distribution of key brands.

Online Competition

There is a maintained thesis for share loss to online channels in the long term.

Promotions Impact

Pressure from Amazon is expected to drive increased promotion, challenging margin expansion.

Ulta Beauty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is a leading beauty retailer in the United States, offering a comprehensive range of cosmetics, skincare, fragrance, and haircare products. The company operates a chain of retail stores and an e-commerce site, providing customers with access to over 25,000 products from approximately 500 well-established and emerging beauty brands. Ulta Beauty also offers a full-service salon in every store, featuring hair, skin, and brow services. With a focus on providing an inclusive and welcoming shopping experience, Ulta Beauty caters to a diverse customer base with varying beauty needs and preferences.

How the Company Makes Money

Ulta Beauty generates revenue primarily through the sale of beauty products across multiple categories, including cosmetics, skincare, haircare, and fragrance. The company's revenue model is centered around its retail operations, both in physical stores and online, where it sells products from a wide array of well-known brands. Additionally, Ulta Beauty earns money through its salon services, which offer hair, skin, and brow treatments to customers seeking personalized beauty services. The company's loyalty program, Ultamate Rewards, also plays a critical role in driving repeat business and customer engagement. Key revenue streams for Ulta Beauty include product sales, salon services, and membership fees from its rewards program. Strong vendor partnerships and exclusive product launches further contribute to Ulta Beauty's earnings, enhancing its appeal to a broad customer demographic.

Ulta Beauty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ulta Beauty demonstrates strong financial health characterized by consistent revenue and profit growth, efficient operations, and robust cash flow generation. The company maintains a balanced capital structure, though a moderate level of debt highlights the importance of sustaining profitability and cash flow to mitigate any potential risks. Overall, Ulta Beauty is well-positioned for continued success in the specialty retail industry.

Income Statement

Ulta Beauty has shown a strong financial performance with consistent growth in revenue and profitability. The TTM gross profit margin stands at approximately 38.83%, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin for TTM is about 10.64%, reflecting solid profitability. Revenue growth has been strong, with a 31.07% increase from 2021 to 2022, although recent growth has been moderate. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, indicating robust operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Ulta Beauty's balance sheet is relatively strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.77, suggesting moderate leverage. The return on equity for TTM is approximately 48.28%, indicating excellent efficiency in using equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is 41.45%, showing a stable capital structure. However, the company does carry a significant amount of debt, which could pose risks if profitability declines.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is robust, with a TTM operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.11, indicating strong cash conversion efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.80, suggesting that a significant portion of net income translates into free cash flow. Free cash flow growth has been positive, supporting ongoing investments and debt repayments.

Breakdown
Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
11.30B	11.21B	10.21B	8.63B	6.15B
	Gross Profit
4.39B	4.38B	4.04B	3.37B	1.95B
	EBIT
1.56B	1.68B	1.64B	1.30B	465.46M
	EBITDA
1.85B	1.94B	1.88B	1.57B	534.59M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.20B	1.29B	1.24B	985.84M	175.84M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
703.20M	766.59M	737.88M	431.56M	1.05B
	Total Assets
6.00B	5.71B	5.37B	4.76B	5.09B
	Total Debt
1.92B	1.91B	1.90B	1.85B	1.90B
	Net Debt
1.22B	1.14B	1.17B	1.42B	850.75M
	Total Liabilities
3.51B	3.43B	3.41B	3.23B	3.09B
	Stockholders Equity
2.49B	2.28B	1.96B	1.54B	2.00B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
964.15M	1.04B	1.17B	887.08M	658.49M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.34B	1.48B	1.48B	1.06B	810.36M
	Investing Cash Flow
-383.09M	-441.43M	-314.58M	-176.48M	-48.75M
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.02B	-1.01B	-861.01M	-1.50B	-107.93M

Ulta Beauty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 407.04
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ULTA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 407.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 401.15, above the 50-day MA of 377.58, and above the 200-day MA of 381.86, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 9.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ULTA.

Ulta Beauty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ULTA	71 Outperform	$18.38B	16.04	50.39%	―	0.79%	-2.70%
M	70 Neutral	$3.22B	5.60	13.40%	5.90%	-3.60%	442.87%
ELF	67 Neutral	$4.67B	49.23	14.24%	―	46.27%	-26.45%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.84B	11.22	2.83%	3.93%	2.65%	-21.93%
JWN	60 Neutral	$4.12B	14.17	29.58%	3.08%	2.20%	120.00%
COTY	60 Neutral	$4.30B	40.12	-10.58%	―	-1.68%	-302.11%
EL	56 Neutral	$23.18B	147.29	-17.27%	3.13%	-3.70%	-235.59%

Ulta Beauty Corporate Events

Ulta Beauty Announces Retirement of Key Executive

On March 13, 2025, Ulta Beauty announced that Jodi J. Caro, their General Counsel, Chief Risk & Compliance Officer, and Corporate Secretary, plans to retire later this spring. A successor will join the company next month to ensure a smooth transition, highlighting the company’s commitment to maintaining stability in its leadership team.