Ulta Beauty (ULTA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $23.73B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 515.64K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.71
• Revenue Growth: 2.94%
• EPS Growth: 4.57%
• Country: US
• Employees: 20,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 5.78
• Shares Outstanding: 44,838,364
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 470,832
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 515,639
• PEG Ratio: -5.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.82
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.72
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.18
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.05
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.31
• 1Y Price Target: $589.11
• Price Target Upside: 11.29% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 21
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $562.00 ▲(6.17% Upside)

Ulta Beauty's strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights are the main contributors to its score. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, but oversold conditions suggest potential for recovery. Valuation is fair, though the lack of a dividend yield may deter some investors.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Ulta Beauty's robust revenue growth indicates strong demand across its product categories and channels, supporting its market position and future expansion.

Loyalty Program Expansion

The growth of Ulta's loyalty program enhances customer retention and repeat purchases, contributing to sustained revenue and competitive advantage.

International Expansion

International expansion into new markets like the U.K. and Mexico diversifies revenue streams and reduces dependency on the U.S. market.

Negative Factors

Operating Margin Decline

A decline in operating margin could signal cost pressures or inefficiencies, potentially impacting profitability if the trend continues.

Increased SG&A Expenses

Rising SG&A expenses may pressure margins and reduce operational efficiency, affecting long-term profitability if not managed effectively.

Leadership Change

A new CFO could bring changes in financial strategy and management, impacting the company's financial health and strategic direction over time.

Ulta Beauty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a retailer of beauty products in the United States. The company's stores offer cosmetics, fragrances, skincare and haircare products, bath and body products, and salon styling tools; professional hair products; salon services, including hair, skin, makeup, and brow services; and nail services. It also provides its private label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection branded cosmetics, skincare, and bath products, as well as Ulta Beauty branded products; and the Ulta Beauty branded gifts. As of March 10, 2022, the company operated 1,308 retail stores across 50 states. It also distributes its products through its website ulta.com; and mobile applications. The company was formerly known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Ulta Beauty generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income comes from the sale of beauty products, which includes both third-party brands and its own private label products. The company’s extensive product range, including makeup, skincare, and haircare, attracts a wide customer base. Additionally, Ulta Beauty earns revenue from in-store salon services, such as haircuts, color treatments, and skincare services. Another significant revenue stream comes from its loyalty program, Ultamate Rewards, which encourages repeat purchases by offering points that can be redeemed for discounts and exclusive offers. Furthermore, strategic partnerships with major beauty brands and collaborations on exclusive product lines contribute to its earnings. The company's e-commerce platform also plays a crucial role, particularly as online shopping continues to grow in popularity, allowing Ulta Beauty to reach a broader audience and increase sales.

Ulta Beauty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ulta Beauty shows strong revenue growth and profitability margins, with a stable balance sheet. However, increasing debt levels and declining cash flow metrics suggest potential risks in financial management.

Income Statement

Ulta Beauty demonstrates strong revenue growth with a consistent increase in total revenue over the years, highlighted by a 2.07% growth in the TTM period. The company maintains healthy profitability margins, with a gross profit margin of approximately 39% and a net profit margin of 10.31% in the TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust, indicating efficient operational management. However, there is a slight decline in margins compared to previous years, which could be a point of concern if the trend continues.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.88 in the TTM, showing a slight increase from previous periods. The return on equity remains strong at 48.78%, indicating effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a solid asset base. However, the increasing debt levels could pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Ulta Beauty's cash flow statement shows a decrease in free cash flow growth by 8.17% in the TTM, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.59, indicating that operating cash flows are sufficient to cover net income, though this ratio has decreased from previous years. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 73.45%, reflecting good cash generation relative to net income. The decline in cash flow metrics suggests potential challenges in cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.65B	11.30B	11.21B	10.21B	8.63B	6.15B
Gross Profit	4.55B	4.39B	4.38B	4.04B	3.37B	1.95B
EBITDA	1.88B	1.85B	1.94B	1.88B	1.58B	534.59M
Net Income	1.20B	1.20B	1.29B	1.24B	985.84M	175.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.63B	6.00B	5.71B	5.37B	4.76B	5.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	242.75M	703.20M	766.59M	737.88M	431.56M	1.05B
Total Debt	2.29B	1.92B	1.91B	1.90B	1.85B	1.90B
Total Liabilities	4.03B	3.51B	3.43B	3.41B	3.23B	3.09B
Stockholders Equity	2.60B	2.49B	2.28B	1.96B	1.54B	2.00B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	952.12M	964.15M	1.04B	1.17B	887.08M	658.49M
Operating Cash Flow	1.30B	1.34B	1.48B	1.48B	1.06B	810.36M
Investing Cash Flow	-751.61M	-383.09M	-441.43M	-314.58M	-176.48M	-48.75M
Financing Cash Flow	-715.88M	-1.02B	-1.01B	-861.01M	-1.50B	-107.93M

Ulta Beauty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 529.34
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ULTA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 529.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 520.49, below the 50-day MA of 531.31, and above the 200-day MA of 454.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ULTA.

Ulta Beauty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ULTA	72 Outperform	$23.73B	20.29	48.52%	―	2.94%	4.57%
SBH	71 Outperform	$1.38B	7.50	27.54%	―	-0.38%	35.78%
EBAY	70 Outperform	$37.90B	18.25	42.43%	1.40%	4.89%	17.30%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
BBWI	59 Neutral	$4.54B	6.54	―	3.49%	-0.18%	-18.95%
CHWY	54 Neutral	$13.91B	94.61	34.48%	―	9.04%	-56.79%
ETSY	53 Neutral	$6.31B	40.88	―	―	1.98%	-20.98%

Ulta Beauty Corporate Events

Ulta Beauty Appoints New Chief Financial Officer

On October 16, 2025, Ulta Beauty announced the appointment of Christopher DelOrefice as Chief Financial Officer, effective December 5, 2025. DelOrefice, who has extensive experience in financial leadership roles at Becton Dickinson & Company and Johnson & Johnson, will replace interim CFO Chris Lialios. This strategic appointment is expected to bolster Ulta Beauty’s financial operations and support its long-term growth strategy. DelOrefice’s compensation package includes a base salary, cash incentives, and equity awards, reflecting the company’s commitment to attracting top talent to drive its financial performance and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (ULTA) stock is a Sell with a $450.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ulta Beauty stock, see the ULTA Stock Forecast page.

Ulta Beauty’s Earnings Call: Strong Growth Amid Challenges

Ulta Beauty’s recent earnings call painted a picture of robust growth tempered by strategic challenges. The company reported significant sales growth and expansion in its loyalty program, alongside successful international ventures. However, it also faced a decline in operating margin and increased SG&A expenses due to strategic investments.

Ulta Beauty Reports Strong Q2 Fiscal 2025 Results

Ulta Beauty, Inc. is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the United States, offering a wide range of cosmetics, skincare, haircare, fragrance, and salon services. The company is known for its expansive product assortment and personalized shopping experiences across its physical stores and digital platforms.

Ulta Beauty Expands Board with New Appointments

On August 20, 2025, Ulta Beauty‘s Board of Directors expanded from ten to twelve members, appointing Martin Brok and Stephenie Landry as independent directors, effective September 1, 2025. These appointments, announced on August 21, 2025, bring significant expertise to Ulta Beauty, with Brok’s extensive experience in global consumer brands and retail innovation, and Landry’s background in consumer technology and strategic transformation. This strategic move is expected to enhance Ulta Beauty’s growth trajectory and strengthen its market position, as the company continues to diversify its board with 67% women and 33% racially diverse members.

The most recent analyst rating on (ULTA) stock is a Buy with a $640.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ulta Beauty stock, see the ULTA Stock Forecast page.

Ulta Beauty and Target to End Partnership

On August 14, 2025, Ulta Beauty and Target Corporation announced their decision not to renew the Ulta Beauty at Target shop-in-shop partnership when the current agreement ends in August 2026. This decision is not expected to significantly impact Ulta Beauty’s fiscal 2025 financial results or long-term financial targets. The partnership, which began in 2021, has been successful in expanding access to prestige beauty and offering convenience through linked rewards programs. Both companies remain committed to providing a seamless shopping experience until the partnership concludes, while Ulta Beauty continues to focus on its growth plans, including the launch of Ulta Beauty Marketplace.

The most recent analyst rating on (ULTA) stock is a Hold with a $395.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ulta Beauty stock, see the ULTA Stock Forecast page.