Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
NASDAQ:ULTA
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Ulta Beauty
(NASDAQ:ULTA)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$511.00
▼(-7.66% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:03/14/26
ULTA scores as a moderately attractive setup driven by strong underlying financial quality and generally constructive FY2026 guidance (including planned buybacks). The score is held back most by very weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and by signs of slowing growth and margin pressure, with valuation appearing only fair at ~25x earnings given those trends.
Positive Factors
Loyalty & Omnichannel
A 46.7M loyalty base and strong app engagement (~60% of online sales via app) create durable repeat-purchase economics. Loyalty drives higher frequency, better customer data for personalization, and resilience to competition by increasing switching costs and boosting long-term average spend per guest.
Negative Factors
Slowing Growth & Margin Pressure
Revenue growth decelerated materially to ~3.4% in 2026 from double-digit years prior, while net margin fell to ~9.3%. Sustained slower top-line growth reduces operating leverage and limits the company's ability to expand margins, making durable EPS growth more dependent on cost controls and share repurchases.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Loyalty & Omnichannel
A 46.7M loyalty base and strong app engagement (~60% of online sales via app) create durable repeat-purchase economics. Loyalty drives higher frequency, better customer data for personalization, and resilience to competition by increasing switching costs and boosting long-term average spend per guest.
Read all positive factors
Ulta Beauty Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Store Count
Indicates the total number of retail locations, reflecting the company's physical presence and potential market reach. A growing store count can signal expansion and increased market penetration.
Indicates the total number of retail locations, reflecting the company's physical presence and potential market reach. A growing store count can signal expansion and increased market penetration.
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The Fly
The FlyUlta Beauty (ULTA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.66B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)688.42K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.8
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth9.71%
EPS Growth1.00%
CountryUS
Employees20,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)25.72
Shares Outstanding43,560,417
10 Day Avg. Volume692,388
30 Day Avg. Volume688,420
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio22.87
Price to Book (P/B)10.35
Price to Sales (P/S)2.34
P/FCF Ratio27.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.94
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.03
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$695.00Price Target Upside25.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)28.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.24B
Ulta Beauty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a retailer of beauty products in the United States. The company's stores offer cosmetics, fragrances, skincare and haircare products, bath and body products, and salon styling tools; professional hair products; salon ...
How the Company Makes Money
Ulta Beauty primarily generates revenue from retail sales of beauty and personal care products sold through its physical stores and digital commerce platforms. Product sales span multiple categories (cosmetics, fragrance, skin care, hair care, and...
Ulta Beauty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed solid operational and top-line momentum — record holiday results, strong comp growth, market share gains, international expansion and robust cash generation — and management provided constructive FY2026 guidance with plans to return capital to shareholders. However, material SG&A growth, near-term profitability pressure from investments (including Space NK integration), higher inventory levels and a competitive promotional environment represent meaningful near-term risks. Overall the positives (revenue growth, market share gains, loyalty and digital traction, cash flow, and defined path to improved profitability) outweigh the listed challenges, while management emphasizes disciplined prioritization and productivity initiatives heading into 2026.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales grew 9.7% for fiscal 2025 to $12.4 billion; Q4 net sales rose 11.8% to $3.9 billion (from $3.5B). Comparable sales increased 5.4% for the year and 5.8% in the quarter.
Negative Updates
SG&A Growth and Deleverage
SG&A increased 17.4% for the year to $3.3 billion and rose 23% in Q4 to $1.0 billion; Q4 SG&A was 25.7% of sales (up 230 basis points). Higher incentive compensation, Space NK integration and guest-facing investments were primary drivers of expense deleverage.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales grew 9.7% for fiscal 2025 to $12.4 billion; Q4 net sales rose 11.8% to $3.9 billion (from $3.5B). Comparable sales increased 5.4% for the year and 5.8% in the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ulta guided fiscal 2026 net sales up 6%–7% to roughly $13.1–$13.2 billion with comp sales of 2.5%–3.5% (driven in part by 50–60 net new company-operated stores); gross margin is expected to be approximately flat, SG&A growth planned to be in line with to slightly below sales (though SG&A dollars will be double‑digit higher year‑over‑year as Space NK and annualized investments lap), operating profit is forecast to increase 6%–9% with operating margin flat to up ~20 bps (with stronger operating profit leverage in H2), diluted EPS of $28.05–$28.55 (+9.4%–11.4%) assuming a 24.2%–24.4% tax rate, capital expenditures of $400–$450 million, and an intention to return about $1.0 billion to shareholders via share repurchases; management also reiterated focus on inventory productivity, supply‑chain automation (new NW DC to start construction in 2026, online in 2027) and targeted investments in marketing, personalization and new channels.Ulta Beauty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12.39B | 11.30B | 11.21B | 10.21B | 8.63B |
| Gross Profit | 4.85B | 4.39B | 4.38B | 4.04B | 3.37B |
| EBITDA | 1.85B | 1.85B | 1.94B | 1.88B | 1.57B |
| Net Income | 1.15B | 1.20B | 1.29B | 1.24B | 985.84M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.00B | 6.00B | 5.71B | 5.37B | 4.76B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 494.24M | 703.20M | 766.59M | 737.88M | 431.56M |
| Total Debt | 2.18B | 1.92B | 1.91B | 1.90B | 1.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.20B | 3.51B | 3.43B | 3.41B | 3.23B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.80B | 2.49B | 2.28B | 1.96B | 1.54B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.07B | 964.15M | 1.04B | 1.17B | 887.08M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.50B | 1.34B | 1.48B | 1.48B | 1.06B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -931.35M | -383.09M | -441.43M | -314.58M | -176.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -850.67M | -1.02B | -1.01B | -861.01M | -1.50B |
Ulta Beauty Technical Analysis
Negative
553.36
Price Trends
525.63
Negative
591.44
Negative
567.32
Negative
Market Momentum
-7.98
Negative
46.14
Neutral
74.34
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ULTA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 553.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 509.68, above the 50-day MA of 525.63, and below the 200-day MA of 567.32, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -7.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ULTA.
Ulta Beauty Risk Analysis
Ulta Beauty disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ulta Beauty reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
An inability to execute our real estate growth and optimization strategy could affect our financial results. Q4, 2025
2.
We may not realize the anticipated benefits of acquisitions, joint ventures, and partnerships, or these benefits may take longer to realize than expected. Q4, 2025
3.
The development and use or misuse of AI or the failure to use AI present risks and challenges that may negatively affect our business. Q4, 2025
Ulta Beauty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $49.79B | 24.00 | 44.12% | 1.38% | 13.15% | 5.89% | |
66 Neutral | $6.34B | 22.95 | -25.47% | ― | 1.78% | 75.71% | |
63 Neutral | $22.66B | 19.78 | 44.07% | ― | 9.71% | 1.00% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $1.26B | 6.98 | 22.86% | ― | 0.77% | 2.73% | |
55 Neutral | $4.10B | 5.56 | -52.40% | 4.16% | -1.40% | -4.34% | |
50 Neutral | $8.74B | 41.92 | 51.43% | ― | 6.24% | -41.25% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ULTA
Ulta Beauty
508.85
33.18
6.97%
EBAY
eBay
109.27
35.69
48.49%
BBWI
Bath & Body Works
20.02
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SBH
Sally Beauty
13.28
4.48
50.91%
ETSY
Etsy
67.92
9.18
15.63%
CHWY
Chewy
22.54
-24.92
-52.51%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.