Ulta Beauty (ULTA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $20.64B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 844.68K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.71
• Revenue Growth: 1.06%
• EPS Growth: -0.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 20,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 6.70
• Shares Outstanding: 44,945,606
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 720,071
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 844,676
• PEG Ratio: 0.62
• Price to Book (P/B): 13.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.22
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.83
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.38
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.31
• 1Y Price Target: $480.05
• Price Target Upside: 4.55% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 24

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $521.00 ▲(13.47%Upside)

Ulta Beauty's overall score reflects its strong financial health and positive earnings call outcomes, despite some technical overbought signals and valuation concerns. The company's expansion strategy and digital initiatives provide a favorable long-term outlook, but near-term economic uncertainties and margin pressures present risks.

Positive Factors

Earnings

ULTA's results were well-above expectations in terms of comparable sales and margins, leading to a significant EPS upside.

Market Position

ULTA is the only national beauty retailer to offer both prestige and mass products, as well as services and a market-leading hair care assortment.

Strategy Execution

Strong execution by Ulta Beauty is driving better-than-expected financial performance, with competitive pressures decreasing.

Negative Factors

Consumer Spending

A pullback in consumer spending presents a greater risk to sales and margins than tariffs.

Margin Pressure

Sales opportunities are balanced by near-term margin pressure as management reinvests in the business.

Retail Channel Risk

The primary risk as seen is the risk of cannibalization of the retail channel, which could hit margins harder moving through the year and into 2026.

Ulta Beauty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is a leading beauty retailer in the United States, offering a comprehensive range of cosmetics, skincare, fragrance, and haircare products. The company operates a chain of retail stores and an e-commerce site, providing customers with access to over 25,000 products from approximately 500 well-established and emerging beauty brands. Ulta Beauty also offers a full-service salon in every store, featuring hair, skin, and brow services. With a focus on providing an inclusive and welcoming shopping experience, Ulta Beauty caters to a diverse customer base with varying beauty needs and preferences.

How the Company Makes Money

Ulta Beauty generates revenue primarily through the sale of beauty products across multiple categories, including cosmetics, skincare, haircare, and fragrance. The company's revenue model is centered around its retail operations, both in physical stores and online, where it sells products from a wide array of well-known brands. Additionally, Ulta Beauty earns money through its salon services, which offer hair, skin, and brow treatments to customers seeking personalized beauty services. The company's loyalty program, Ultamate Rewards, also plays a critical role in driving repeat business and customer engagement. Key revenue streams for Ulta Beauty include product sales, salon services, and membership fees from its rewards program. Strong vendor partnerships and exclusive product launches further contribute to Ulta Beauty's earnings, enhancing its appeal to a broad customer demographic.

Ulta Beauty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ulta Beauty demonstrates strong revenue growth, profitability, and cash flow generation. The income statement and cash flow metrics are robust, although there's room for improvement in equity strength on the balance sheet.

Income Statement

Ulta Beauty's income statement shows strong performance with consistent revenue growth and solid profitability metrics. The TTM revenue growth rate is robust at 1.08%, indicating steady expansion. Gross profit margin is healthy at 38.81%, and net profit margin at 10.45% demonstrates efficient cost management. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong, at 13.71% and 16.23% respectively, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a solid financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.81, indicating balanced leverage. ROE is impressive at 49.10%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio of 40.59% signifies a stable asset base funded by equity, though there's room for improvement in strengthening equity further.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates a strong cash-generating capability. The free cash flow growth rate is notable at 7.56%, reflecting improved cash generation. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.17, showing efficient conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio at 0.87 suggests healthy cash retention relative to earnings.

Breakdown
TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
11.42B	11.30B	11.21B	10.21B	8.63B	6.15B
	Gross Profit
4.43B	4.39B	4.38B	4.04B	3.37B	1.95B
	EBIT
1.57B	1.56B	1.68B	1.64B	1.30B	465.46M
	EBITDA
1.85B	1.85B	1.94B	1.88B	1.57B	534.59M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.19B	1.20B	1.29B	1.24B	985.84M	175.84M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
454.63M	703.20M	766.59M	737.88M	431.56M	1.05B
	Total Assets
5.99B	6.00B	5.71B	5.37B	4.76B	5.09B
	Total Debt
1.98B	1.92B	1.91B	1.90B	1.85B	1.90B
	Net Debt
1.52B	1.22B	1.14B	1.17B	1.42B	850.75M
	Total Liabilities
3.56B	3.51B	3.43B	3.41B	3.23B	3.09B
	Stockholders Equity
2.43B	2.49B	2.28B	1.96B	1.54B	2.00B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.04B	964.15M	1.04B	1.17B	887.08M	658.49M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.40B	1.34B	1.48B	1.48B	1.06B	810.36M
	Investing Cash Flow
-375.88M	-383.09M	-441.43M	-314.58M	-176.48M	-48.75M
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.09B	-1.02B	-1.01B	-861.01M	-1.50B	-107.93M

Ulta Beauty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 459.17
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ULTA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 459.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 442.37, above the 50-day MA of 404.24, and above the 200-day MA of 389.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 17.88 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ULTA.

Ulta Beauty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ULTA	78 Outperform	$20.64B	17.93	50.44%	―	1.06%	-0.29%
ELF	75 Outperform	$7.06B	65.22	15.97%	―	28.28%	-14.79%
M	73 Outperform	$3.05B	5.68	12.92%	6.49%	-3.77%	4607.98%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.82B	11.05	2.80%	4.32%	2.67%	-24.92%
COTY	61 Neutral	$4.13B	40.12	-10.58%	―	-1.68%	-302.11%
EL	59 Neutral	$24.21B	147.29	-17.27%	2.08%	-3.70%	-235.59%

Ulta Beauty Corporate Events

Ulta Beauty Holds Annual Stockholder Meeting June 2025

On June 11, 2025, Ulta Beauty, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders, where several key proposals were voted on. Stockholders elected ten directors to serve until the 2026 annual meeting, ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent accounting firm for fiscal year 2025, and approved the company’s executive compensation. Approximately 87.52% of shares were represented at the meeting, reflecting strong shareholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (ULTA) stock is a Hold with a $395.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ulta Beauty stock, see the ULTA Stock Forecast page.