Ulta Beauty (ULTA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $23.94B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 561.22K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: 2.94%
• EPS Growth: 4.57%
• Country: US
• Employees: 20,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 5.14
• Shares Outstanding: 44,838,364
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 707,969
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 561,216
• PEG Ratio: -5.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.82
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.72
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.18
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.00
• 1Y Price Target: $611.35
• Price Target Upside: 1.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $618.00 ▲(2.74% Upside)

Ulta Beauty's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are significant strengths, supported by robust sales growth and strategic initiatives. However, technical indicators suggest limited upside potential, and valuation metrics indicate the stock is fairly valued. The absence of a dividend yield and increased SG&A expenses are notable risks.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for Ulta's products and services, reinforcing its market position and potential for future expansion.

Loyalty Program Expansion

The expansion of the loyalty program enhances customer retention and repeat purchases, driving sustained revenue and strengthening customer relationships.

International Expansion

International expansion diversifies revenue streams and taps into new markets, providing growth opportunities and reducing reliance on the domestic market.

Negative Factors

Increasing Debt Levels

Rising debt levels could strain financial flexibility and cash flow, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

SG&A Expenses

Rising SG&A expenses can pressure operating margins, impacting profitability and potentially hindering long-term financial performance.

Operating Margin Decline

A decline in operating margins suggests increased costs or pricing pressures, which could affect profitability if not addressed through efficiency improvements.

Ulta Beauty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a leading beauty retailer in the United States, offering a wide range of cosmetics, skincare, fragrance, and haircare products, along with salon services. Established in 1990, Ulta operates over 1,200 stores across the country, providing customers with an extensive selection of both high-end and drugstore brands. The company combines retail and salon experiences, allowing shoppers to explore a diverse array of beauty products in a single destination, further enhancing its appeal to beauty enthusiasts.

How the Company Makes Money

Ulta Beauty generates revenue primarily through the sale of beauty products and salon services. Its key revenue streams include product sales from a comprehensive assortment of brands, including exclusive lines and well-known cosmetics, skin, and hair care brands. Additionally, Ulta earns income from salon services, which include haircuts, coloring, and various beauty treatments. The company also benefits from loyalty programs, such as the Ultamate Rewards program, which encourages repeat purchases and customer retention. Significant partnerships with beauty brands and exclusive product launches further contribute to its earnings, as they enhance the product mix available to consumers and drive foot traffic to stores. The combination of retail sales and services, along with strategic marketing and partnerships, solidifies Ulta's revenue model.

Ulta Beauty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ulta Beauty shows strong revenue growth and solid profitability margins, with a stable balance sheet. However, increasing debt levels and declining cash flow metrics suggest potential challenges in cash management.

Income Statement

Ulta Beauty demonstrates strong revenue growth with a consistent increase in total revenue over the years, highlighted by a 2.07% growth in the TTM period. The company maintains healthy profitability margins, with a gross profit margin of approximately 39% and a net profit margin of 10.31% in the TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust, indicating efficient operational management. However, there is a slight decline in margins compared to previous years, which could be a point of concern if the trend continues.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.88 in the TTM, showing a slight increase from previous periods. The return on equity remains strong at 48.78%, indicating effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a solid asset base. However, the increasing debt levels could pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Ulta Beauty's cash flow statement shows a decrease in free cash flow growth by 8.17% in the TTM, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.59, indicating that operating cash flows are sufficient to cover net income, though this ratio has decreased from previous years. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 73.45%, reflecting good cash generation relative to net income. The decline in cash flow metrics suggests potential challenges in cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.65B	11.30B	11.21B	10.21B	8.63B	6.15B
Gross Profit	4.55B	4.39B	4.38B	4.04B	3.37B	1.95B
EBITDA	1.87B	1.85B	1.94B	1.88B	1.57B	534.59M
Net Income	1.20B	1.20B	1.29B	1.24B	985.84M	175.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.63B	6.00B	5.71B	5.37B	4.76B	5.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	242.75M	703.20M	766.59M	737.88M	431.56M	1.05B
Total Debt	2.29B	1.92B	1.91B	1.90B	1.85B	1.90B
Total Liabilities	4.03B	3.51B	3.43B	3.41B	3.23B	3.09B
Stockholders Equity	2.60B	2.49B	2.28B	1.96B	1.54B	2.00B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	952.12M	964.15M	1.04B	1.17B	887.08M	658.49M
Operating Cash Flow	1.30B	1.34B	1.48B	1.48B	1.06B	810.36M
Investing Cash Flow	-751.61M	-383.09M	-441.43M	-314.58M	-176.48M	-48.75M
Financing Cash Flow	-715.88M	-1.02B	-1.01B	-861.01M	-1.50B	-107.93M

Ulta Beauty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 601.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ULTA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 601.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 528.37, above the 50-day MA of 532.75, and above the 200-day MA of 465.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 9.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.78 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ULTA.

Ulta Beauty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ULTA	77 Outperform	$23.94B	20.47	47.97%	―	2.94%	4.57%
SBH	73 Outperform	$1.52B	8.22	27.54%	―	-0.42%	31.64%
EBAY	70 Outperform	$37.12B	17.84	42.43%	1.41%	4.89%	17.30%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
ETSY	55 Neutral	$5.26B	37.23	―	―	1.98%	-20.98%
CHWY	54 Neutral	$13.88B	94.44	34.48%	―	9.04%	-56.79%
BBWI	53 Neutral	$3.85B	5.79	―	4.25%	-1.04%	-20.88%

Ulta Beauty Corporate Events

Ulta Beauty Appoints New Chief Financial Officer

On October 16, 2025, Ulta Beauty announced the appointment of Christopher DelOrefice as Chief Financial Officer, effective December 5, 2025. DelOrefice, who has extensive experience in financial leadership roles at Becton Dickinson & Company and Johnson & Johnson, will replace interim CFO Chris Lialios. This strategic appointment is expected to bolster Ulta Beauty’s financial operations and support its long-term growth strategy. DelOrefice’s compensation package includes a base salary, cash incentives, and equity awards, reflecting the company’s commitment to attracting top talent to drive its financial performance and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (ULTA) stock is a Sell with a $450.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ulta Beauty stock, see the ULTA Stock Forecast page.

Ulta Beauty’s Earnings Call: Strong Growth Amid Challenges

Ulta Beauty’s recent earnings call painted a picture of robust growth tempered by strategic challenges. The company reported significant sales growth and expansion in its loyalty program, alongside successful international ventures. However, it also faced a decline in operating margin and increased SG&A expenses due to strategic investments.

Ulta Beauty Reports Strong Q2 Fiscal 2025 Results

Ulta Beauty, Inc. is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the United States, offering a wide range of cosmetics, skincare, haircare, fragrance, and salon services. The company is known for its expansive product assortment and personalized shopping experiences across its physical stores and digital platforms.

Ulta Beauty Expands Board with New Appointments

On August 20, 2025, Ulta Beauty‘s Board of Directors expanded from ten to twelve members, appointing Martin Brok and Stephenie Landry as independent directors, effective September 1, 2025. These appointments, announced on August 21, 2025, bring significant expertise to Ulta Beauty, with Brok’s extensive experience in global consumer brands and retail innovation, and Landry’s background in consumer technology and strategic transformation. This strategic move is expected to enhance Ulta Beauty’s growth trajectory and strengthen its market position, as the company continues to diversify its board with 67% women and 33% racially diverse members.

The most recent analyst rating on (ULTA) stock is a Buy with a $640.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ulta Beauty stock, see the ULTA Stock Forecast page.

Ulta Beauty and Target to End Partnership

On August 14, 2025, Ulta Beauty and Target Corporation announced their decision not to renew the Ulta Beauty at Target shop-in-shop partnership when the current agreement ends in August 2026. This decision is not expected to significantly impact Ulta Beauty’s fiscal 2025 financial results or long-term financial targets. The partnership, which began in 2021, has been successful in expanding access to prestige beauty and offering convenience through linked rewards programs. Both companies remain committed to providing a seamless shopping experience until the partnership concludes, while Ulta Beauty continues to focus on its growth plans, including the launch of Ulta Beauty Marketplace.

The most recent analyst rating on (ULTA) stock is a Hold with a $395.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ulta Beauty stock, see the ULTA Stock Forecast page.