Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
NASDAQ:ULTA
Top Page
Ulta Beauty
(NASDAQ:ULTA)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$571.00
▲(9.73% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/14/26
ULTA scores as a moderately attractive setup driven by strong underlying financial quality and generally constructive FY2026 guidance (including planned buybacks). The score is held back most by very weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and by signs of slowing growth and margin pressure, with valuation appearing only fair at ~25x earnings given those trends.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow (~$1.5B) and strong free cash flow (~$1.07B) provide durable funding for capex, store growth, supply‑chain automation, and sizable share repurchases. This cash buffer supports strategic investments and cushions the business through cyclical softness.
Negative Factors
SG&A growth and deleverage
Material SG&A expansion from incentives, Space NK integration and guest investments weakens operating leverage. If revenue growth stays modest, higher fixed and recurring costs can persistently compress operating margins and reduce cash-flow conversion over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow (~$1.5B) and strong free cash flow (~$1.07B) provide durable funding for capex, store growth, supply‑chain automation, and sizable share repurchases. This cash buffer supports strategic investments and cushions the business through cyclical softness.
Read all positive factors
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.76B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)809.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.2
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth5.45%
EPS Growth4.28%
CountryUS
Employees20,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.01
Shares Outstanding43,736,630
10 Day Avg. Volume548,323
30 Day Avg. Volume809,342
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio22.87
Price to Book (P/B)10.35
Price to Sales (P/S)2.34
P/FCF Ratio27.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.03
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.64
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$712.53Price Target Upside36.92% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)28.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.22B
Ulta Beauty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a retailer of beauty products in the United States. The company's stores offer cosmetics, fragrances, skincare and haircare products, bath and body products, and salon styling tools; professional hair products; salon ...
How the Company Makes Money
Ulta Beauty primarily generates revenue from retail sales of beauty and personal care products sold through its physical stores and digital commerce platforms. Product sales span multiple categories (cosmetics, fragrance, skin care, hair care, and...
Ulta Beauty Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Store Count
Indicates the total number of retail locations, reflecting the company's physical presence and potential market reach. A growing store count can signal expansion and increased market penetration.
Indicates the total number of retail locations, reflecting the company's physical presence and potential market reach. A growing store count can signal expansion and increased market penetration.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUlta Beauty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed solid operational and top-line momentum — record holiday results, strong comp growth, market share gains, international expansion and robust cash generation — and management provided constructive FY2026 guidance with plans to return capital to shareholders. However, material SG&A growth, near-term profitability pressure from investments (including Space NK integration), higher inventory levels and a competitive promotional environment represent meaningful near-term risks. Overall the positives (revenue growth, market share gains, loyalty and digital traction, cash flow, and defined path to improved profitability) outweigh the listed challenges, while management emphasizes disciplined prioritization and productivity initiatives heading into 2026.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales grew 9.7% for fiscal 2025 to $12.4 billion; Q4 net sales rose 11.8% to $3.9 billion (from $3.5B). Comparable sales increased 5.4% for the year and 5.8% in the quarter.
Negative Updates
SG&A Growth and Deleverage
SG&A increased 17.4% for the year to $3.3 billion and rose 23% in Q4 to $1.0 billion; Q4 SG&A was 25.7% of sales (up 230 basis points). Higher incentive compensation, Space NK integration and guest-facing investments were primary drivers of expense deleverage.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales grew 9.7% for fiscal 2025 to $12.4 billion; Q4 net sales rose 11.8% to $3.9 billion (from $3.5B). Comparable sales increased 5.4% for the year and 5.8% in the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ulta guided fiscal 2026 net sales up 6%–7% to roughly $13.1–$13.2 billion with comp sales of 2.5%–3.5% (driven in part by 50–60 net new company-operated stores); gross margin is expected to be approximately flat, SG&A growth planned to be in line with to slightly below sales (though SG&A dollars will be double‑digit higher year‑over‑year as Space NK and annualized investments lap), operating profit is forecast to increase 6%–9% with operating margin flat to up ~20 bps (with stronger operating profit leverage in H2), diluted EPS of $28.05–$28.55 (+9.4%–11.4%) assuming a 24.2%–24.4% tax rate, capital expenditures of $400–$450 million, and an intention to return about $1.0 billion to shareholders via share repurchases; management also reiterated focus on inventory productivity, supply‑chain automation (new NW DC to start construction in 2026, online in 2027) and targeted investments in marketing, personalization and new channels.Ulta Beauty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12.39B | 11.30B | 11.21B | 10.21B | 8.63B |
| Gross Profit | 4.85B | 4.39B | 4.38B | 4.04B | 3.37B |
| EBITDA | 1.85B | 1.85B | 1.94B | 1.88B | 1.57B |
| Net Income | 1.15B | 1.20B | 1.29B | 1.24B | 985.84M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.00B | 6.00B | 5.71B | 5.37B | 4.76B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 494.24M | 703.20M | 766.59M | 737.88M | 431.56M |
| Total Debt | 2.18B | 1.92B | 1.91B | 1.90B | 1.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.20B | 3.51B | 3.43B | 3.41B | 3.23B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.80B | 2.49B | 2.28B | 1.96B | 1.54B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.07B | 964.15M | 1.04B | 1.17B | 887.08M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.50B | 1.34B | 1.48B | 1.48B | 1.06B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -931.35M | -383.09M | -441.43M | -314.58M | -176.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -850.67M | -1.02B | -1.01B | -861.01M | -1.50B |
Ulta Beauty Technical Analysis
Negative
520.38
Price Trends
613.16
Negative
606.71
Negative
561.76
Negative
Market Momentum
-23.31
Negative
34.27
Neutral
54.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ULTA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 520.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 525.87, below the 50-day MA of 613.16, and below the 200-day MA of 561.76, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -23.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 34.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ULTA.
Ulta Beauty Risk Analysis
Ulta Beauty disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ulta Beauty reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
An inability to execute our real estate growth and optimization strategy could affect our financial results. Q4, 2025
2.
We may not realize the anticipated benefits of acquisitions, joint ventures, and partnerships, or these benefits may take longer to realize than expected. Q4, 2025
3.
The development and use or misuse of AI or the failure to use AI present risks and challenges that may negatively affect our business. Q4, 2025
Ulta Beauty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $42.74B | 19.34 | 42.68% | 1.38% | 4.89% | 17.30% | |
64 Neutral | $1.34B | 7.65 | 23.43% | ― | -0.42% | 31.64% | |
63 Neutral | $22.76B | 25.17 | 44.07% | ― | 5.45% | 4.28% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $3.64B | 7.11 | -44.22% | 4.16% | -1.04% | -20.88% | |
56 Neutral | $10.50B | 52.77 | 51.43% | ― | 9.80% | -46.84% | |
55 Neutral | $5.07B | 33.41 | -15.36% | ― | 1.98% | -20.98% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ULTA
Ulta Beauty
520.38
162.29
45.32%
EBAY
eBay
95.40
30.81
47.70%
BBWI
Bath & Body Works
18.10
-8.57
-32.13%
SBH
Sally Beauty
13.77
5.78
72.34%
ETSY
Etsy
52.69
9.19
21.13%
CHWY
Chewy
25.21
-9.80
-27.99%
Ulta Beauty Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Ulta Beauty Adopts Standardized Executive Severance Plan Framework
Neutral
Dec 18, 2025
On December 15, 2025, Ulta Beauty, Inc. adopted a new Executive Severance Plan that standardizes severance and benefits for its executive officers in the event of an involuntary termination without cause, excluding terminations tied to a change in...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.