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Ulta Beauty
(NASDAQ:ULTA)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$588.00
▲(22.37% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:07/16/26
Overall score reflects strong recent operating execution and confident forward posture from management (raised EPS guidance and larger buyback), balanced against only mid-tier underlying financial statement quality due to margin compression, modest longer-term revenue growth, and imperfect cash conversion. Technicals are a secondary drag given the stock remains below key longer-term moving averages, while valuation appears reasonable at a mid-teens P/E.
Positive Factors
Loyalty & First‑Party Data
A ~47M-member loyalty base is a durable competitive asset: it supports repeat purchase behavior, higher basket economics, and targeted personalization. First‑party data underpins AI-driven merchandising and marketing that can sustainably raise retention, margin mix, and lifetime value across channels.
Negative Factors
Margin Compression
A multi‑point decline in net margin versus peak indicates structural margin pressure from higher SG&A, promotional activity, and cost inflation. If investments and mix shifts persist, margin recovery may be muted, constraining sustainable operating profit growth despite revenue gains.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Loyalty & First‑Party Data
A ~47M-member loyalty base is a durable competitive asset: it supports repeat purchase behavior, higher basket economics, and targeted personalization. First‑party data underpins AI-driven merchandising and marketing that can sustainably raise retention, margin mix, and lifetime value across channels.
Read all positive factors
Ulta Beauty Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Store Count
Indicates the total number of retail locations, reflecting the company's physical presence and potential market reach. A growing store count can signal expansion and increased market penetration.
Indicates the total number of retail locations, reflecting the company's physical presence and potential market reach. A growing store count can signal expansion and increased market penetration.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUlta Beauty (ULTA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.05B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)675.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.1
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth11.30%
EPS Growth4.23%
CountryUS
Employees65,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)26.78
Shares Outstanding42,989,310
10 Day Avg. Volume579,987
30 Day Avg. Volume675,823
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio22.87
Price to Book (P/B)10.35
Price to Sales (P/S)2.34
P/FCF Ratio27.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$623.00Price Target Upside29.65% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)28.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.24B
Ulta Beauty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ulta Beauty, Inc. functions as a prominent beauty product retailer throughout the United States. Its physical locations feature a broad assortment of goods, including cosmetics, perfumes, skincare, haircare items, bath and body essentials, and pro...
How the Company Makes Money
Ulta Beauty primarily makes money by selling beauty products and providing beauty services across an omnichannel model (physical stores and e-commerce). The company’s largest revenue stream is retail product sales, which include both mass-market a...
Ulta Beauty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 02, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong execution and profitable top-line growth: double-digit net sales growth (11.1%), mid-teens e-commerce growth, meaningful gross margin expansion (+100 bps to 40.1%), and a sizable increase in EPS (+15.5%). Management maintained full-year guidance, raised EPS guidance and increased the share buyback program, reflecting confidence. Key risks highlighted were elevated SG&A from strategic investments, inventory buildup, transportation/fuel cost pressures, and tougher near-term comp compares. New channels and exclusive brand building (TikTok Shop, marketplace, NOYZ, Space NK) showed early traction but are still scaling. Overall, positives (robust sales, margin improvement, EPS and buyback acceleration, loyalty scale and e-commerce momentum) outweigh the headwinds (investment-driven SG&A, inventory and macro/cost uncertainty), leading to a constructive outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales increased 11.1% year-over-year to $3.2 billion (from $2.8 billion). Total sales growth excluding Space NK was in the high single-digit range.
Negative Updates
SG&A Increase and Ongoing Investment Spend
SG&A rose 14.6% to $815 million, driven by the impact of Space NK and continued investments to support Ulta Beauty Unleashed (wellness, marketplace, media and other initiatives).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales increased 11.1% year-over-year to $3.2 billion (from $2.8 billion). Total sales growth excluding Space NK was in the high single-digit range.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ulta maintained fiscal 2026 guidance with net sales growth of 6–7% (stronger in H1), comparable sales of 2.5–3.5% (implying a high‑single‑digit 2‑year stacked comp), operating profit growth of 6.5–9% (operating margin flat to up ~20 bps) and gross margin roughly flat for the year, while planning SG&A growth in line to slightly below sales; diluted EPS is guided to $28.36–$28.80 (up ~10.6–12.3% vs. prior expectations) assuming ~43 million weighted average shares and a ~24.5% tax rate. Management said they will fund disciplined investments (Q1 capex $58M), expect strong operating cash flow, increased the buyback target from $1.0B to $1.5B (with $555M repurchased in Q1), and noted supporting Q1 results of net sales +11.1% to $3.2B, comp sales +5.3% and EPS of $7.74 (+15.5%).Ulta Beauty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.71B | 12.39B | 11.30B | 11.21B | 10.21B | 8.63B |
| Gross Profit | 5.00B | 4.85B | 4.39B | 4.38B | 4.04B | 3.37B |
| EBITDA | 1.89B | 1.83B | 1.85B | 1.94B | 1.88B | 1.57B |
| Net Income | 1.19B | 1.15B | 1.20B | 1.29B | 1.24B | 985.84M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.90B | 7.00B | 6.00B | 5.71B | 5.37B | 4.76B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 221.30M | 494.24M | 703.20M | 766.59M | 737.88M | 431.56M |
| Total Debt | 2.30B | 2.18B | 1.92B | 1.91B | 1.90B | 1.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.31B | 4.20B | 3.51B | 3.43B | 3.41B | 3.23B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.58B | 2.80B | 2.49B | 2.28B | 1.96B | 1.54B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.05B | 1.07B | 964.15M | 1.04B | 1.17B | 887.08M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.55B | 1.50B | 1.34B | 1.48B | 1.48B | 1.06B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -988.78M | -931.35M | -383.09M | -441.43M | -314.58M | -176.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -886.98M | -850.67M | -1.02B | -1.01B | -861.01M | -1.50B |
Ulta Beauty Technical Analysis
Positive
480.51
Price Trends
480.71
Positive
504.70
Positive
554.75
Negative
Market Momentum
14.13
Negative
74.31
Negative
95.28
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ULTA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 480.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 488.20, below the 50-day MA of 480.71, and below the 200-day MA of 554.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 14.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.31 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.28 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ULTA.
Ulta Beauty Risk Analysis
Ulta Beauty disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ulta Beauty reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ulta Beauty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $2.92T | 21.55 | 23.34% | ― | 15.77% | 88.63% | |
74 Outperform | $1.80B | 27.90 | 12.85% | ― | 10.02% | 26.46% | |
70 Outperform | $22.05B | 19.15 | 44.77% | ― | 11.30% | 4.23% | |
70 Outperform | $1.43B | 7.96 | 23.11% | ― | 0.77% | 2.73% | |
64 Neutral | $4.05B | 13.29 | 18.85% | 5.35% | 30.50% | -13.32% | |
63 Neutral | $4.06B | 5.80 | -52.38% | 4.02% | -1.40% | -4.34% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ULTA
Ulta Beauty
543.86
33.69
6.60%
AMZN
Amazon
277.42
63.67
29.79%
BBWI
Bath & Body Works
21.06
-6.76
-24.30%
SBH
Sally Beauty
16.56
4.90
42.02%
RVLV
Revolve Group
26.37
5.67
27.39%
MNSO
MINISO Group Holding
12.39
-6.55
-34.59%
Ulta Beauty Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Ulta Beauty Appoints Kelly Garcia as Chief Technology Officer
Positive
Jul 15, 2026
On July 14, 2026, Ulta Beauty announced that board member Kelly E. Garcia will transition to the role of Chief Technology Officer, with his appointment effective August 31, 2026, at which time he will resign from the board. Garcia brings more than...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Ulta Beauty Shareholders Approve Governance and Incentive Changes
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
On June 9, 2026, Ulta Beauty stockholders approved amendments to the company’s certificate of incorporation to add officer exculpation consistent with Delaware law and to adopt exclusive forum provisions, centralizing certain corporate and s...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.