Ulta Beauty (ULTA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $23.80B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 560.88K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: 1.06%
• EPS Growth: -0.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 20,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 80
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 6.70
• Shares Outstanding: 44,945,606
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 579,527
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 560,880
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.82
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.71
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.41
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.54
• 1Y Price Target: $541.29
• Price Target Upside: 2.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 23

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $589.00 ▲(11.24% Upside)

Ulta Beauty's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the primary drivers of its overall score. Technical analysis supports a stable outlook, while valuation is reasonable but lacks a dividend yield. The company's cautious guidance and global trade uncertainties are notable risks.

Positive Factors

Competitive Advantage

ULTA's ability to know more about its consumers than the brands themselves, thanks to its loyalty program, is a significant advantage.

Earnings Growth

Management is expected to raise F25 EPS guidance based on comps of +1-2%, which indicates confidence in future performance.

Market Position

Ulta Beauty is well positioned with rebounding market share, stabilizing margins, and new management.

Negative Factors

Competitive Pressure

WMT is expanding into the beauty arena, adding over 60 brands and launching their own shop-in-shop pilot, positioning itself as a competitor to ULTA.

Partnership Challenges

There could be near-term headwinds in profitability as the Ulta-Target partnership winds down.

Revenue Decline

ULTA's 'Other Revenue' from TGT has declined for three straight quarters, with average sales per location declining for four straight quarters.

Ulta Beauty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a leading beauty retailer in the United States, offering a wide range of cosmetics, skincare, haircare, and fragrance products. The company operates a multi-channel business model, featuring both brick-and-mortar stores and an online shopping platform. Ulta Beauty provides a diverse selection of products from various brands, including high-end and drugstore cosmetics, as well as its proprietary brand, Ulta Beauty Collection. In addition to retail, Ulta Beauty also offers salon services in-store, enhancing the customer experience and positioning itself as a one-stop destination for beauty needs.

How the Company Makes Money

Ulta Beauty generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income comes from the sale of beauty products, which includes both third-party brands and its own private label products. The company’s extensive product range, including makeup, skincare, and haircare, attracts a wide customer base. Additionally, Ulta Beauty earns revenue from in-store salon services, such as haircuts, color treatments, and skincare services. Another significant revenue stream comes from its loyalty program, Ultamate Rewards, which encourages repeat purchases by offering points that can be redeemed for discounts and exclusive offers. Furthermore, strategic partnerships with major beauty brands and collaborations on exclusive product lines contribute to its earnings. The company's e-commerce platform also plays a crucial role, particularly as online shopping continues to grow in popularity, allowing Ulta Beauty to reach a broader audience and increase sales.

Ulta Beauty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ulta Beauty demonstrates robust financial health with consistent revenue growth, strong profitability, effective leverage management, and excellent cash flow generation. The income statement and cash flow are particularly strong, though there is room for improvement in equity strength.

Income Statement

Ulta Beauty's income statement shows strong performance with consistent revenue growth and solid profitability metrics. The TTM revenue growth rate is robust at 1.08%, indicating steady expansion. Gross profit margin is healthy at 38.81%, and net profit margin at 10.45% demonstrates efficient cost management. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong, at 13.71% and 16.23% respectively, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a solid financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.81, indicating balanced leverage. ROE is impressive at 49.10%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio of 40.59% signifies a stable asset base funded by equity, though there's room for improvement in strengthening equity further.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates a strong cash-generating capability. The free cash flow growth rate is notable at 7.56%, reflecting improved cash generation. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.17, showing efficient conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio at 0.87 suggests healthy cash retention relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.42B	11.30B	11.21B	10.21B	8.63B	6.15B
Gross Profit	4.43B	4.39B	4.38B	4.04B	3.37B	1.95B
EBITDA	1.85B	1.85B	1.94B	1.88B	1.57B	534.59M
Net Income	1.19B	1.20B	1.29B	1.24B	985.84M	175.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.99B	6.00B	5.71B	5.37B	4.76B	5.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	454.63M	703.20M	766.59M	737.88M	431.56M	1.05B
Total Debt	1.98B	1.92B	1.91B	1.90B	1.85B	1.90B
Total Liabilities	3.56B	3.51B	3.43B	3.41B	3.23B	3.09B
Stockholders Equity	2.43B	2.49B	2.28B	1.96B	1.54B	2.00B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.04B	964.15M	1.04B	1.17B	887.08M	658.49M
Operating Cash Flow	1.40B	1.34B	1.48B	1.48B	1.06B	810.36M
Investing Cash Flow	-375.88M	-383.09M	-441.43M	-314.58M	-176.48M	-48.75M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.09B	-1.02B	-1.01B	-861.01M	-1.50B	-107.93M

Ulta Beauty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 529.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ULTA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 529.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 515.66, above the 50-day MA of 493.54, and above the 200-day MA of 417.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 8.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ULTA.

Ulta Beauty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ULTA	78 Outperform	$23.80B	20.68	50.44%	―	1.06%	-0.29%
EBAY	77 Outperform	$45.34B	21.93	42.63%	1.13%	3.05%	-10.82%
SBH	72 Outperform	$1.34B	7.31	28.94%	―	-0.38%	35.78%
CHWY	72 Outperform	$16.43B	44.32	76.24%	―	7.64%	369.79%
ETSY	65 Neutral	$6.21B	50.11	-39.97%	―	2.38%	-38.88%
BBWI	65 Neutral	$6.58B	8.31	-52.83%	2.57%	-0.93%	-4.07%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.70B	12.60	-3.90%	3.04%	1.52%	-15.30%

Ulta Beauty Corporate Events

Ulta Beauty Expands Board with New Appointments

On August 20, 2025, Ulta Beauty‘s Board of Directors expanded from ten to twelve members, appointing Martin Brok and Stephenie Landry as independent directors, effective September 1, 2025. These appointments, announced on August 21, 2025, bring significant expertise to Ulta Beauty, with Brok’s extensive experience in global consumer brands and retail innovation, and Landry’s background in consumer technology and strategic transformation. This strategic move is expected to enhance Ulta Beauty’s growth trajectory and strengthen its market position, as the company continues to diversify its board with 67% women and 33% racially diverse members.

Ulta Beauty and Target to End Partnership

On August 14, 2025, Ulta Beauty and Target Corporation announced their decision not to renew the Ulta Beauty at Target shop-in-shop partnership when the current agreement ends in August 2026. This decision is not expected to significantly impact Ulta Beauty’s fiscal 2025 financial results or long-term financial targets. The partnership, which began in 2021, has been successful in expanding access to prestige beauty and offering convenience through linked rewards programs. Both companies remain committed to providing a seamless shopping experience until the partnership concludes, while Ulta Beauty continues to focus on its growth plans, including the launch of Ulta Beauty Marketplace.

Ulta Beauty CFO Departure and Severance Agreement

Paula Oyibo, the former CFO of Ulta Beauty, departed the company on June 24, 2025. As part of her exit, she entered into a Separation and Release Agreement, receiving severance benefits including two years of base salary, a lump sum cash bonus, and health care benefits, while agreeing to non-competition and non-solicitation covenants for 24 months.

Ulta Beauty Appoints Interim CFO Amid Leadership Change

On June 25, 2025, Ulta Beauty announced the appointment of Christopher Lialios as Interim Chief Financial Officer following the departure of Paula Oyibo. Lialios, who has been with the company since 1999, will lead the financial operations while an external search for a permanent CFO is conducted. The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 guidance, indicating stability in its financial outlook.

Ulta Beauty Holds Annual Stockholder Meeting June 2025

On June 11, 2025, Ulta Beauty, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders, where several key proposals were voted on. Stockholders elected ten directors to serve until the 2026 annual meeting, ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent accounting firm for fiscal year 2025, and approved the company’s executive compensation. Approximately 87.52% of shares were represented at the meeting, reflecting strong shareholder engagement.