Ulta Beauty (ULTA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $29.51B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 751.64K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: 5.45%
• EPS Growth: 4.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 20,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 5.14
• Shares Outstanding: 44,362,170
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 525,528
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 751,637
• PEG Ratio: -5.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.82
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.72
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.18
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.87
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.21
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.66
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.75
• 1Y Price Target: $672.88
• Price Target Upside: 1.42% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20
• EPS Forecast (FY): 25.51
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $12.29B

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $758.00 ▲(14.25% Upside)

Ulta Beauty's strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights are the most significant factors driving the score. Technical indicators suggest a positive trend but caution due to overbought signals. Valuation is reasonable, though the lack of a dividend may be a drawback for some investors.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand and effective sales strategies, enhancing Ulta's market position and long-term growth prospects.

Loyalty Program Expansion

An expanding loyalty program fosters customer retention and repeat purchases, supporting sustained revenue growth and competitive advantage.

International Expansion

International expansion diversifies revenue sources and taps into new markets, providing growth opportunities and reducing reliance on domestic sales.

Negative Factors

SG&A Expense Increase

Rising SG&A expenses can pressure margins and profitability, potentially impacting financial performance if not managed effectively.

Operating Margin Decline

A decline in operating margins suggests increased costs and potential inefficiencies, which could affect long-term profitability if not addressed.

Inventory Costs

Higher inventory levels may lead to increased holding costs and potential write-downs, affecting cash flow and operational efficiency.

Ulta Beauty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a retailer of beauty products in the United States. The company's stores offer cosmetics, fragrances, skincare and haircare products, bath and body products, and salon styling tools; professional hair products; salon services, including hair, skin, makeup, and brow services; and nail services. It also provides its private label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection branded cosmetics, skincare, and bath products, as well as Ulta Beauty branded products; and the Ulta Beauty branded gifts. As of March 10, 2022, the company operated 1,308 retail stores across 50 states. It also distributes its products through its website ulta.com; and mobile applications. The company was formerly known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Ulta Beauty generates revenue primarily through the sale of beauty products and salon services. Its key revenue streams include product sales from a comprehensive assortment of brands, including exclusive lines and well-known cosmetics, skin, and hair care brands. Additionally, Ulta earns income from salon services, which include haircuts, coloring, and various beauty treatments. The company also benefits from loyalty programs, such as the Ultamate Rewards program, which encourages repeat purchases and customer retention. Significant partnerships with beauty brands and exclusive product launches further contribute to its earnings, as they enhance the product mix available to consumers and drive foot traffic to stores. The combination of retail sales and services, along with strategic marketing and partnerships, solidifies Ulta's revenue model.

Ulta Beauty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ulta Beauty shows strong revenue growth and profitability margins, but faces challenges with declining cash flow metrics and increasing debt levels. The company maintains a stable financial position, yet careful monitoring of debt and cash flow is advisable.

Income Statement

Ulta Beauty demonstrates strong revenue growth with a consistent increase in total revenue over the years, highlighted by a 2.07% growth in the TTM period. The company maintains healthy profitability margins, with a gross profit margin of approximately 39% and a net profit margin of 10.31% in the TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust, indicating efficient operational management. However, there is a slight decline in margins compared to previous years, which could be a point of concern if the trend continues.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.88 in the TTM, showing a slight increase from previous periods. The return on equity remains strong at 48.78%, indicating effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a solid asset base. However, the increasing debt levels could pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Ulta Beauty's cash flow statement shows a decrease in free cash flow growth by 8.17% in the TTM, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.59, indicating that operating cash flows are sufficient to cover net income, though this ratio has decreased from previous years. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 73.45%, reflecting good cash generation relative to net income. The decline in cash flow metrics suggests potential challenges in cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.65B	11.30B	11.21B	10.21B	8.63B	6.15B
Gross Profit	4.55B	4.39B	4.38B	4.04B	3.37B	1.95B
EBITDA	1.87B	1.85B	1.94B	1.88B	1.57B	534.59M
Net Income	1.20B	1.20B	1.29B	1.24B	985.84M	175.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.63B	6.00B	5.71B	5.37B	4.76B	5.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	242.75M	703.20M	766.59M	737.88M	431.56M	1.05B
Total Debt	2.29B	1.92B	1.91B	1.90B	1.85B	1.90B
Total Liabilities	4.03B	3.51B	3.43B	3.41B	3.23B	3.09B
Stockholders Equity	2.60B	2.49B	2.28B	1.96B	1.54B	2.00B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	952.12M	964.15M	1.04B	1.17B	887.08M	658.49M
Operating Cash Flow	1.30B	1.34B	1.48B	1.48B	1.06B	810.36M
Investing Cash Flow	-751.61M	-383.09M	-441.43M	-314.58M	-176.48M	-48.75M
Financing Cash Flow	-715.88M	-1.02B	-1.01B	-861.01M	-1.50B	-107.93M

Ulta Beauty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 663.48
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ULTA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 663.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 632.03, above the 50-day MA of 579.88, and above the 200-day MA of 502.19, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 24.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.33 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ULTA.

Ulta Beauty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ULTA	78 Outperform	$29.51B	25.43	47.97%	―	5.45%	4.28%
SBH	76 Outperform	$1.56B	8.18	27.54%	―	-0.42%	31.64%
EBAY	70 Outperform	$43.42B	20.91	42.43%	1.38%	4.89%	17.30%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
CHWY	61 Neutral	$13.60B	69.67	59.58%	―	9.80%	-46.84%
ETSY	57 Neutral	$6.28B	43.18	―	―	1.98%	-20.98%
BBWI	53 Neutral	$4.79B	7.19	―	4.16%	-1.04%	-20.88%

Ulta Beauty Corporate Events

Ulta Beauty Adopts Standardized Executive Severance Plan Framework

On December 15, 2025, Ulta Beauty, Inc. adopted a new Executive Severance Plan that standardizes severance and benefits for its executive officers in the event of an involuntary termination without cause, excluding terminations tied to a change in control, death, or disability. Under the plan, eligible executives will receive two times base salary paid over 24 months, a cash lump sum equal to one times the lower of their target or actual annual bonus for the year of termination, and up to 12 months of company-paid COBRA premiums, contingent on signing a release of claims and complying with restrictive covenants for 24 months; the plan replaces prior severance arrangements for executives but leaves intact the company’s existing change-in-control severance framework, signaling a move toward more unified and predictable executive exit terms for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ULTA) stock is a Buy with a $700.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ulta Beauty stock, see the ULTA Stock Forecast page.