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Etsy
(NYSE:ETSY)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$89.00
▲(10.39% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
ETSY scores as a moderate-quality opportunity driven by strong free cash flow and improved operating performance, supported by constructive (but not euphoric) technical momentum. The score is held back by elevated balance-sheet risk (negative equity and sizable debt) and only average valuation support at a ~28x P/E with no dividend, despite upbeat guidance and aggressive capital returns highlighted on the earnings call.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Consistent high FCF provides a durable internal funding source for debt service, reinvestment and buybacks. Strong cash conversion also cushions the business through demand cycles, enabling strategic flexibility without immediate reliance on external capital markets.
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Weakness
Negative equity and sizable net debt materially weaken the capital cushion and constrain financial flexibility. In a downturn this elevates refinancing and solvency risk, limits strategic optionality, and makes the business more sensitive to cash‑flow volatility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Consistent high FCF provides a durable internal funding source for debt service, reinvestment and buybacks. Strong cash conversion also cushions the business through demand cycles, enabling strategic flexibility without immediate reliance on external capital markets.
Read all positive factors
Etsy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Active Buyers
Tracks the number of unique buyers who have made purchases over a specific period, indicating Etsy's customer base size, engagement level, and potential for future sales growth.
Tracks the number of unique buyers who have made purchases over a specific period, indicating Etsy's customer base size, engagement level, and potential for future sales growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyEtsy (ETSY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.75B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.3
Beta (1Y)1.07
Revenue Growth1.78%
EPS Growth75.71%
CountryUS
Employees2,375
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.12
Shares Outstanding94,896,230
10 Day Avg. Volume2,523,959
30 Day Avg. Volume2,736,158
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.91
Price to Book (P/B)-4.96
Price to Sales (P/S)1.89
P/FCF Ratio8.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$85.61Price Target Upside6.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering21
EPS Forecast (FY)3.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.79B
Etsy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Etsy, Inc. oversees online retail platforms designed to link independent merchants with a global customer base. Its primary marketplace is dedicated to unique and handcrafted items, while its Depop division focuses on the resale of apparel. The co...
How the Company Makes Money
Etsy primarily makes money by charging fees to sellers for using its marketplace and related services. Key revenue streams include: (1) Marketplace revenue: Etsy charges sellers listing fees to post items for sale and transaction fees when items s...
Etsy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed improving marketplace fundamentals: sequential and year-over-year acceleration in GMS, revenue growth, strong adjusted EBITDA margin and cash generation, meaningful app-led engagement gains, and a substantial $2 billion buyback authorization. Management also announced a targeted restructuring (≈12% headcount reduction) to streamline product and engineering and to concentrate machine-learning talent, incurring ~$35 million in charges. Purchase frequency still lags prior-year levels and AI/agentic channels remain nascent, but these lowlights are outweighed by the stronger top-line momentum, profitability, balance sheet flexibility and capital returns outlined on the call.Positive Updates
Accelerating GMS Growth
Etsy marketplace GMS was $2.6 billion, growing 7.5% year-over-year and marking the third consecutive quarter of YoY GMS growth; Q3 GMS guidance of $2.53B–$2.58B implies ~4%–6% YoY growth and the company now expects mid-single-digit GMS growth for full-year 2026.
Negative Updates
Workforce Reduction and Restructuring Costs
Etsy announced a restructuring concentrated in product and engineering that will reduce headcount by ~220 employees (~12%), with expected charges of approximately $35 million (primarily cash severance), to be substantially complete by end of Q3 2026 — risk of execution disruption and morale impact acknowledged.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Accelerating GMS Growth
Etsy marketplace GMS was $2.6 billion, growing 7.5% year-over-year and marking the third consecutive quarter of YoY GMS growth; Q3 GMS guidance of $2.53B–$2.58B implies ~4%–6% YoY growth and the company now expects mid-single-digit GMS growth for full-year 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q3 2026 Etsy marketplace GMS of $2.53–$2.58 billion (≈+4%–6% YoY), a Q3 take rate of ~26% and adjusted EBITDA margin of 28%–30%; for full‑year 2026 they now expect mid‑single‑digit GMS growth, a full‑year take rate roughly in line with the first half (Q2 take rate was 25.9%) and tightened adjusted EBITDA margin of 29%–30%. They highlighted strong cash generation — $1.3 billion in cash and investments as of 6/30/26, 81% conversion of adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow in Q2, and $1.4 billion of cash proceeds from the sale of Depop — and stepped up buybacks (≈$250 million repurchased in Q2, ~3.9 million shares; $578 million remaining on the prior program and a new $2 billion authorization). They also announced a restructuring reducing roughly 220 roles (~12%) to an expected ~1,600 headcount with approximately $35 million of primarily cash charges to be incurred and substantially complete by end‑Q3.Etsy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.86B | 2.88B | 2.81B | 2.75B | 2.57B | 2.33B |
| Gross Profit | 2.07B | 2.07B | 2.03B | 1.92B | 1.82B | 1.67B |
| EBITDA | 559.07M | 367.02M | 532.65M | 398.19M | -551.11M | 555.81M |
| Net Income | 209.49M | 162.98M | 303.28M | 307.57M | -694.29M | 493.51M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.44B | 2.83B | 2.42B | 2.69B | 2.63B | 3.83B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.12B | 1.62B | 1.04B | 1.15B | 1.17B | 984.61M |
| Total Debt | 3.08B | 3.08B | 2.39B | 2.39B | 2.39B | 2.39B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.83B | 3.93B | 3.18B | 3.23B | 3.18B | 3.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.40B | -1.10B | -758.87M | -543.72M | -547.27M | 628.62M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 849.61M | 638.75M | 708.97M | 665.61M | 646.41M | 621.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 885.28M | 693.41M | 752.47M | 705.51M | 683.61M | 651.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -70.51M | 32.08M | -53.10M | -73.31M | -30.02M | -1.56B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -879.70M | -169.88M | -787.17M | -656.53M | -506.48M | 452.75M |
Etsy Technical Analysis
Positive
80.62
Price Trends
77.10
Positive
67.63
Positive
62.24
Positive
Market Momentum
2.19
Positive
58.30
Neutral
64.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ETSY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 80.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 83.43, above the 50-day MA of 77.10, and above the 200-day MA of 62.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ETSY.
Etsy Risk Analysis
Etsy disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Etsy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Etsy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $2.92T | 21.55 | 30.50% | ― | 15.77% | 88.63% | |
77 Outperform | $95.21B | 49.58 | 26.54% | ― | 42.11% | -6.84% | |
76 Outperform | $26.92B | 25.24 | 53.29% | 1.25% | 1.30% | 1.14% | |
72 Outperform | $50.62B | 25.34 | 48.28% | 1.10% | 13.15% | 5.89% | |
66 Neutral | $7.75B | 28.26 | -17.67% | ― | 1.78% | 75.71% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $745.86M | -33.68 | -37.30% | ― | 10.25% | 70.25% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ETSY
Etsy
85.55
23.78
38.50%
AMZN
Amazon
274.48
53.18
24.03%
EBAY
eBay
111.98
17.89
19.01%
MELI
Mercadolibre
1,820.69
-471.35
-20.56%
WSM
Williams-Sonoma
251.78
54.56
27.66%
TDUP
thredUP
3.21
-6.63
-67.38%
Etsy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Etsy Announces Restructuring Plan and Buyback Authorization
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 3, 2026, Etsy’s audit committee approved a restructuring plan aimed at simplifying the organization to better align with long-term strategic priorities and speed decision-making. The plan includes cutting about 220 roles, or roughl...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackM&A Transactions
Etsy sells Depop to refocus on core marketplace
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Etsy completed the sale of Depop, its community-powered fashion resale marketplace, to eBay for approximately $1.4 billion in cash, including net purchase price adjustments and interest. The deal closed after required regulatory ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Etsy amends Depop sale agreement with eBay
Neutral
Jul 17, 2026
On July 12, 2026, Etsy and eBay agreed a second amendment to their February 15, 2026 sale and purchase agreement under which eBay will acquire all of the outstanding equity of Depop from Etsy. Following clearance of the deal by the U.K. Competitio...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Etsy Shareholders Endorse Governance and Executive Pay Structure
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
At Etsy’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 9, 2026, shareholders re-elected Class II directors M. Michele Burns, Josh Silverman, and Fred Wilson to serve until the 2029 annual meeting, and approved on an advisory basis the co...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.