Etsy (ETSY)
NYSE:ETSY
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Etsy
(NYSE:ETSY)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$53.00
▲(0.97% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/21/26
The score is primarily driven by strong, stable cash generation and solid profitability, but is held back by balance-sheet risk (negative equity) and weak technical momentum. A relatively high P/E with no dividend and cautious growth guidance further limit upside despite strategic simplification from the planned Depop sale.
Positive Factors
Durable Free Cash Flow
Consistent, high free cash flow in the $650M–$750M range with near‑one-to-one conversion from net income provides durable internal funding for buybacks, debt reduction, and targeted product investment. This cash generation cushions the business against cyclical revenue softness and supports long-term capital allocation flexibility.
Negative Factors
Negative Shareholders' Equity
A multi-year negative equity position constrains financial flexibility and increases vulnerability to adverse shocks. Even with falling debt, the negative equity base can complicate covenant calculations, limit borrowing capacity, and raise refinancing risk, making balance sheet repair a structural priority for durable stability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Durable Free Cash Flow
Consistent, high free cash flow in the $650M–$750M range with near‑one-to-one conversion from net income provides durable internal funding for buybacks, debt reduction, and targeted product investment. This cash generation cushions the business against cyclical revenue softness and supports long-term capital allocation flexibility.
Read all positive factors
Etsy (ETSY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.76B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.87M
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.4
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth1.98%
EPS Growth-20.98%
CountryUS
Employees2,400
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.92
Shares Outstanding96,247,180
10 Day Avg. Volume2,395,368
30 Day Avg. Volume3,867,842
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.92
Price to Book (P/B)-4.96
Price to Sales (P/S)1.89
P/FCF Ratio8.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.39
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.30
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.21
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.94
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$62.63Price Target Upside19.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)3.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.75B
Etsy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Etsy, Inc. operates online marketplaces that match third‑party sellers with buyers globally, with its main platform focused on unique and creative goods and its Depop brand focused on fashion resale. The company generates revenue primarily from ma...
How the Company Makes Money
Etsy generates revenue primarily through transaction fees, listing fees, and payment processing fees. Sellers are charged a listing fee for each item they post on the platform, and Etsy takes a percentage of each sale made, known as the transactio...
Etsy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business areas, highlighting which segments are driving growth and contributing most to Etsy's financial performance.
Breaks down revenue across different business areas, highlighting which segments are driving growth and contributing most to Etsy's financial performance.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyEtsy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed cautious optimism: management reported record revenue, improving GMS momentum in Q4, stronger app engagement, improved buyer reactivation, meaningful cash generation, and a strategic $1.2B Depop sale that simplifies focus and capital allocation. However, material challenges remain — frequency and habitual buyer declines, only modest core marketplace growth (currency-neutral GMS still down), and near-term guidance that assumes only slight growth in 2026. The tone is constructive and forward-looking but balanced by explicit acknowledgment that sustained durable growth will require continued disciplined execution over multiple quarters.Positive Updates
Depop Sale Brings $1.2B Cash and Strategic Focus
Signed definitive agreement to sell Depop to eBay for $1.2 billion in cash; expected close Q2 2026 (subject to approvals). Depop FY2025 GMS $1.1B and revenue $187M; Q4 Depop GMS $300M, up ~38% YoY (U.S. GMS +60% YoY). Transaction frees capital and management focus to invest in the core Etsy marketplace and shareholder returns.
Negative Updates
Marketplace Frequency and Retention Challenges
Purchase frequency remains slightly lower than a year ago and habitual buyers declined to 5.9M, down 8.6% YoY (sequential decline -1.4%). Management acknowledged under-investment in creating reasons to return and is prioritizing loyalty efforts to address retention and frequency gaps.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Depop Sale Brings $1.2B Cash and Strategic Focus
Signed definitive agreement to sell Depop to eBay for $1.2 billion in cash; expected close Q2 2026 (subject to approvals). Depop FY2025 GMS $1.1B and revenue $187M; Q4 Depop GMS $300M, up ~38% YoY (U.S. GMS +60% YoY). Transaction frees capital and management focus to invest in the core Etsy marketplace and shareholder returns.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Etsy guided Q1 2026 GMS of $2.38–$2.43 billion (about +2% to +4% year‑over‑year), a Q1 take rate of ~25.5% and adjusted EBITDA margin of 28–30% (guidance is for continuing operations following the anticipated Depop divestiture); for full‑year 2026 they expect slight GMS growth with positive year‑over‑year comparisons in each quarter and full‑year take rate and adjusted EBITDA margin roughly consistent with the Q1 view, with management noting Q1 could be the strongest quarter due to FX tailwinds and easier comps and assuming macroeconomic conditions remain stable.Etsy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.88B | 2.81B | 2.75B | 2.57B | 2.33B |
| Gross Profit | 2.07B | 2.03B | 1.92B | 1.82B | 1.67B |
| EBITDA | 333.07M | 532.65M | 398.19M | -551.11M | 555.81M |
| Net Income | 162.98M | 303.28M | 307.57M | -694.29M | 493.51M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.83B | 2.42B | 2.69B | 2.63B | 3.83B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.62B | 1.04B | 1.15B | 1.17B | 984.61M |
| Total Debt | 742.49M | 2.39B | 2.39B | 2.39B | 2.39B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.93B | 3.18B | 3.23B | 3.18B | 3.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.10B | -758.87M | -543.72M | -547.27M | 628.62M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 678.03M | 738.26M | 665.61M | 652.87M | 623.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 693.41M | 752.47M | 705.51M | 683.61M | 651.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 32.08M | -53.10M | -73.31M | -30.02M | -1.56B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -169.88M | -787.17M | -656.53M | -506.48M | 452.75M |
Etsy Technical Analysis
Negative
52.49
Price Trends
54.85
Negative
55.85
Negative
58.64
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.12
Positive
46.07
Neutral
39.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ETSY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 52.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 54.16, below the 50-day MA of 54.85, and below the 200-day MA of 58.64, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ETSY.
Etsy Risk Analysis
Etsy disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Etsy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Etsy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $5.46B | 97.82 | 7.46% | ― | 31.57% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $40.25B | 19.34 | 42.68% | 1.38% | 4.89% | 17.30% | |
63 Neutral | $9.79B | 57.58 | 55.17% | ― | 9.80% | -46.84% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $4.76B | 33.41 | -15.36% | ― | 1.98% | -20.98% | |
53 Neutral | $440.82M | -38.47 | -34.47% | ― | -4.90% | 50.77% | |
51 Neutral | $198.69M | -15.82 | -14.44% | ― | 3.49% | -16.10% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ETSY
Etsy
49.46
1.64
3.43%
EBAY
eBay
89.10
23.72
36.28%
CHWY
Chewy
23.45
-10.16
-30.23%
TDUP
thredUP
3.46
0.72
26.28%
GLBE
Global-e Online
31.70
-6.56
-17.15%
DIBS
1stdibs.com
5.44
2.45
81.94%
Etsy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackM&A Transactions
Etsy Divests Depop to Refocus on Core Marketplace
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
On February 15, 2026, Etsy agreed to sell its U.K.-based subsidiary Depop, a fast-growing, mobile-first C2C fashion resale marketplace with about $1 billion in 2025 GMS and a predominantly Gen Z and Millennial user base, to eBay for roughly $1.2 b...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Etsy Expands Share Buybacks Amid Governance and Leadership Shift
Positive
Dec 19, 2025
On December 16, 2025, Etsy’s board amended and restated the company’s bylaws to tighten and clarify procedures and disclosure rules for shareholder director nominations in line with U.S. securities regulations, and to refine governance...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.