Global-e Online (GLBE) AI Stock Analysis

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Global-e Online

(NASDAQ:GLBE)

Rating:65Neutral

Price Target:

$36.00

▲(8.17% Upside)

Global-e Online's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance in terms of revenue growth and cash flow generation, as well as positive sentiment from the latest earnings call. However, the lack of profitability and negative valuation metrics weigh down the score. Technical analysis indicates a neutral trend, with no strong bullish or bearish signals.

Positive Factors

Earnings

The company delivered solid top-to-bottom 2Q results, including an impressive +34% year-over-year GMV growth.

Growth Opportunities

Recent enterprise merchant wins, including Victoria's Secret, Harrod's, and Manchester United, provide significant growth opportunities for Global-E Online Ltd.

Partnerships

A new commercial agreement with Shopify extends Global-E Online Ltd.'s penetration potential in Managed Markets and strengthens its position with Shopify as a major shareholder.

Negative Factors

Competitive Landscape

GLBE shares seem to be weak on concerns that SHOP's Managed Markets change for GLBE is creating a greater than expected competitive dynamic.

Economic Challenges

Soft consumer demand and global trade environment challenges are creating economic uncertainty, impacting Global-E Online Ltd.'s earnings forecasts and price target.

Tariffs

Tariffs on goods from China, especially for U.S. merchants sourcing from there, are contributing to the economic challenges faced by Global-E Online Ltd.

Global-e Online (GLBE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$5.35B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.71M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.68

Revenue Growth33.30%

EPS Growth74.42%

CountryUS

Employees1,084

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength66

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.06

Shares Outstanding169,435,300

10 Day Avg. Volume2,629,384

30 Day Avg. Volume1,713,393

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97

Enterprise Value/Revenue6.17

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.68

Enterprise Value/Ebitda28.77

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$48.50

Price Target Upside45.73% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering10

Global-e Online Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGlobal-e Online Ltd. (GLBE) is a leading provider of cross-border e-commerce solutions, catering primarily to retailers and brands looking to expand their reach into international markets. The company offers a comprehensive platform that enables seamless global sales by addressing the complexities associated with international shipping, customs, local pricing, and language localization. Global-e's solutions are designed to enhance the customer experience while optimizing the efficiency of global transactions, making it easier for businesses to connect with consumers around the world.

How the Company Makes MoneyGlobal-e Online generates revenue primarily through a combination of service fees and transaction-based fees. The company charges retailers a service fee for the use of its comprehensive e-commerce platform, which includes tools for localizing content, calculating taxes and duties, and managing international shipping. Additionally, Global-e earns transaction-based fees, which are a percentage of each sale processed through its platform. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with major e-commerce platforms and marketplaces, which help drive more retailers to its services, thereby increasing transaction volume and revenue. These partnerships, along with its robust technological infrastructure, contribute significantly to Global-e's earnings.

Global-e Online Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Gross Merchandise Volume

Gross Merchandise Volume
Measures the total sales dollar value for merchandise sold through the platform, indicating the scale of the company's operations and its ability to attract and retain sellers and buyers.

Chart InsightsGlobal-e Online's Gross Merchandise Volume has been on a robust upward trajectory, with a notable 34% year-over-year increase in Q1 2025. This growth is bolstered by a strategic partnership with Shopify, enhancing their market position. However, potential challenges loom due to U.S. import tariffs affecting 12% of U.S. inbound GMV and geopolitical uncertainties. Despite these risks, the company's proactive strategies, including new offerings to offset tariff costs, suggest resilience and continued growth potential in the e-commerce space.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Global-e Online Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: -2.03%|

Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted Global-E's strong growth in GMV and revenue, sustainable GAAP profitability, and strategic expansions, both through partnerships and acquisitions. Despite uncertainties around duty tariffs and the de minimis exemption, the company remains optimistic about its growth trajectory and strategic initiatives.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong GMV and Revenue Growth

Global-E finished Q2 with GMV of $1.45 billion, up 34% year-over-year, and revenues of almost $215 million, up 28% year-over-year.

Sustainable GAAP Profitability

The company achieved GAAP profitability with a net profit of $10.5 million compared to a net loss of $22.4 million in the same quarter last year.

Strategic Partnership Extension with DHL

Global-E extended its long-term strategic partnership with DHL, entering into an additional 3-year agreement.

Acquisition of ReturnGo

Global-E acquired ReturnGo, a leading provider of AI-enabled return and exchange solutions, to enhance post-purchase solutions.

Expansion of Merchant Base

Several new brands were launched with Global-E in Q2, including SteelSeries, GANNI, and Life360, among others.

Increased Cash Flow

The company generated a strong free cash flow of $63.5 million in Q2.

Negative Updates

Uncertainty Due to Duty Tariffs

There is ongoing uncertainty around duty tariffs and their potential adverse impact on global trade in the back half of the year.

Impact of Shopify Warrant Amortization

The amortization of the Shopify warrants impacted financial results, although it is expected to be fully amortized by early 2026.

Challenges with De Minimis Exemption Changes

Expected changes to the U.S. de minimis exemption could impact trading volumes, although the company anticipates limited effects.

Weakness in U.K. Market

The U.K. market faced challenges, partly due to the impact of a cyberattack on a major merchant, M&S, affecting their trade volumes.

Company Guidance

During the Global-E Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance for the upcoming third quarter and full year 2025, illustrating a positive outlook driven by strong performance metrics. For Q3 2025, Global-E expects GMV to be between $1.455 billion and $1.495 billion, with revenue ranging from $214 million to $221 million, and an adjusted EBITDA of $37.5 million to $41.5 million, reflecting an 18.2% margin at the midpoint. For the full year, the company anticipates GMV in the range of $6.22 billion to $6.52 billion, revenue from $921.5 million to $971.5 million, and adjusted EBITDA between $180 million and $200 million. These projections indicate a 31% growth in GMV and a 26% increase in revenue at their respective midpoints. Despite potential uncertainties around global trade tariffs, the company remains confident in its ability to achieve GAAP profitability for the year, bolstered by strategic initiatives like the acquisition of ReturnGo and its partnership with Shopify.

Global-e Online Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Global-e Online demonstrates impressive revenue growth and a strong balance sheet with low leverage. However, profitability remains a key challenge, with negative margins impacting overall financial health. The company's robust cash flow generation provides a solid foundation for future growth and operational resilience.

Income Statement

Positive

Global-e Online has shown strong revenue growth with a 94% increase from 2020 to 2025, driven by expanding market presence. However, the company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by consistently negative EBIT and net income margins. The Gross Profit Margin improved to 45.2% in TTM, indicating efficient cost management. Despite these improvements, profitability remains a concern, impacting the overall income statement score.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of Global-e Online is robust, featuring a strong equity base with an Equity Ratio of 74.9% in TTM. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is low at 0.03, indicating minimal leverage and reduced financial risk. However, the Return on Equity is negative due to net losses, which highlights profitability challenges despite a strong capital structure.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow performance is a strong point for Global-e Online, with consistent positive operating cash flow and a 40.4% Free Cash Flow growth from 2020 to 2025. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is high due to negative net income, indicating good cash flow generation despite accounting losses. This strength in cash flow supports operational sustainability and future growth investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	843.64M	752.76M	569.95M	409.05M	245.27M	136.38M
Gross Profit	380.47M	339.43M	233.60M	158.18M	91.43M	43.47M
EBITDA	180.90M	101.61M	47.77M	-159.91M	-65.33M	8.65M
Net Income	-28.42M	-75.55M	-133.81M	-195.41M	-74.93M	3.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.22B	1.26B	1.20B	1.16B	846.13M	347.31M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	515.48M	474.44M	317.42M	228.20M	509.07M	91.97M
Total Debt	24.65M	24.86M	23.32M	19.82M	21.32M	4.43M
Total Liabilities	306.71M	370.05M	300.38M	234.48M	150.38M	205.81M
Stockholders Equity	909.09M	893.43M	901.98M	928.12M	695.75M	141.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	149.58M	167.06M	106.48M	73.13M	12.87M	28.89M
Operating Cash Flow	152.45M	169.39M	108.22M	81.48M	15.75M	29.35M
Investing Cash Flow	-202.08M	-105.12M	-55.04M	-330.10M	-40.49M	-24.05M
Financing Cash Flow	2.62M	3.28M	1.99M	1.24M	398.61M	59.36M

Global-e Online Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price33.28

Price Trends

50DMA

32.90

Positive

100DMA

33.52

Negative

200DMA

41.44

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.37

Positive

RSI

52.22

Neutral

STOCH

31.96

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GLBE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.82, above the 50-day MA of 32.90, and below the 200-day MA of 41.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GLBE.

Global-e Online Risk Analysis

Global-e Online disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Global-e Online reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Global-e Online Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (57)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EBAY	77 Outperform	$45.65B	22.07	42.63%	1.13%	3.05%	-10.82%
CHWY	72 Outperform	$17.00B	45.84	76.24%	―	7.64%	369.79%
GLBE	65 Neutral	$5.35B	―	-3.18%	―	33.30%	74.42%
ETSY	65 Neutral	$6.29B	51.95	-39.97%	―	2.38%	-38.88%
CPNG	61 Neutral	$52.60B	145.22	8.55%	―	18.69%	-65.55%
W	57 Neutral	$10.24B	―	17.86%	―	0.87%	54.67%
Sector *	57 Neutral	HK$25.99B	4.36	-4.73%	5.52%	-0.90%	-51.66%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GLBE

Global-e Online

33.28

-1.63

-4.67%

EBAY

eBay

99.22

41.35

71.45%

Wayfair

77.84

32.28

70.85%

ETSY

Etsy

62.66

7.26

13.10%

CHWY

Chewy

39.57

12.87

48.20%

CPNG

Coupang

28.75

5.88

25.71%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 23, 2025