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Wayfair
(NYSE:W)
Select Model
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$109.00
▲(29.48% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
The score is driven primarily by improving operations and notably strong free cash flow, reinforced by a positive earnings outlook for continued growth and expanding adjusted EBITDA. These positives are tempered by elevated balance-sheet risk (negative equity and meaningful debt) and weaker valuation support due to ongoing GAAP losses and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Wayfair's transformation to consistently positive and materially improved free cash flow is a durable fundamental change. Strong OCF and rising FCF increase liquidity to fund ops, capex, loyalty programs, and debt paydown, reducing refinancing risk and enabling strategic investments without relying on equity markets.
Negative Factors
Weak balance sheet
Persistently negative equity and sizable debt constitute a structural constraint on flexibility. Even with recent debt reductions, leverage and past convertible activity raise refinancing and covenant risk, limiting capacity for large acquisitions or prolonged margin pressure without dilutive or costly financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Wayfair's transformation to consistently positive and materially improved free cash flow is a durable fundamental change. Strong OCF and rising FCF increase liquidity to fund ops, capex, loyalty programs, and debt paydown, reducing refinancing risk and enabling strategic investments without relying on equity markets.
Read all positive factors
Wayfair Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down sales across regions (e.g., U.S., Canada, other markets) to show where Wayfair is growing or lagging. Regional splits reveal exposure to economic cycles, currency swings, shipping costs and market saturation that can affect growth prospects and margin stability.
Breaks down sales across regions (e.g., U.S., Canada, other markets) to show where Wayfair is growing or lagging. Regional splits reveal exposure to economic cycles, currency swings, shipping costs and market saturation that can affect growth prospects and margin stability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyWayfair (W) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.14B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.39
Revenue Growth7.46%
EPS Growth-2.70%
CountryUS
Employees11,800
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.46
Shares Outstanding115,990,166
10 Day Avg. Volume2,847,603
30 Day Avg. Volume3,107,442
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.05
Price to Book (P/B)-4.70
Price to Sales (P/S)1.05
P/FCF Ratio39.78
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$126.45Price Target Upside50.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering24
EPS Forecast (FY)2.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.37B
Wayfair Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Wayfair Inc. operates as a leading e-commerce enterprise, conducting its retail activities both across the United States and internationally. The company boasts an extensive catalog featuring approximately 33 million distinct products for the home...
How the Company Makes Money
Wayfair primarily makes money by selling home goods and furniture to customers through its e-commerce platforms, recognizing revenue from product sales when control transfers to the customer (i.e., when orders are fulfilled/shipped according to it...
Wayfair Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed clear, broadbased operational and financial progress: accelerating top-line growth (7.5% YoY), improving order momentum, expanding adjusted EBITDA (6.9%) and strong free cash flow ($301M, +30% YoY). U.S. share gains, outsized luxury/specialty growth (Perigold +35%+), improving unit economics and balance-sheet repairs (convert retirements and a Fitch upgrade) are major positives. Challenges are concentrated in international markets, a still-promotional mass environment, and near-term gross margin reinvestments tied to loyalty and CX that intentionally trade some margin for durable growth. Overall, the highlights meaningfully outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Top-line Growth and Order Momentum
Net revenue grew 7.5% year-over-year in Q2 2026; orders were up 6% YoY and rose over 12% sequentially versus Q1 (best Q2 sequential growth since 2020). Average order value (AOV) increased 1.2% YoY and active customers grew >3% YoY.
Negative Updates
International Weakness
International revenue declined 1.3% YoY in Q2; Canada and the U.K. continue to face pressure on consumer sentiment and discretionary spending, dampening international performance.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-line Growth and Order Momentum
Net revenue grew 7.5% year-over-year in Q2 2026; orders were up 6% YoY and rose over 12% sequentially versus Q1 (best Q2 sequential growth since 2020). Average order value (AOV) increased 1.2% YoY and active customers grew >3% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Wayfair guided Q3 to high single‑digit revenue growth (following Q2’s 7.5% y/y), with gross margin pegged at 29.5%–30.5% of net revenue (they expect to land at the lower end), customer service and merchant fees just below 4%, and advertising in a 10.5%–11.5% range (also expected toward the low end); the net result should be a contribution margin roughly in line with or slightly above Q2’s 15.3%. They expect SOTG&A to hold in the $360–$370 million range, implying an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 6%–7% of net revenue. Other Q3 assumptions include equity‑based comp and related taxes of $65–$75 million, depreciation & amortization of $64–$70 million (roughly 1%–2% of revenue), net interest of ~$42 million, weighted average shares of ~137 million, and capital expenditures of $60–$70 million, with management reiterating that free cash flow and adjusted EBITDA should continue to expand.Wayfair Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
26
Negative
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.90B | 12.46B | 11.85B | 12.00B | 12.22B | 13.71B |
| Gross Profit | 3.88B | 3.77B | 3.57B | 3.67B | 3.42B | 3.90B |
| EBITDA | 109.00M | 82.00M | -66.00M | -295.00M | -921.00M | 224.00M |
| Net Income | -321.00M | -313.00M | -492.00M | -738.00M | -1.33B | -131.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.98B | 3.44B | 3.46B | 3.47B | 3.58B | 4.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.14B | 1.54B | 1.37B | 1.35B | 1.28B | 2.40B |
| Total Debt | 3.48B | 4.07B | 4.22B | 4.20B | 4.16B | 4.05B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.77B | 6.22B | 6.21B | 6.18B | 6.13B | 6.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | -2.79B | -2.78B | -2.75B | -2.71B | -2.55B | -1.62B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 495.00M | 329.00M | 83.00M | -2.00M | -1.13B | 130.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 665.00M | 534.00M | 317.00M | 349.00M | -674.00M | 410.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -261.00M | -219.00M | -262.00M | -152.00M | 1.00M | -515.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -668.00M | -129.00M | -69.00M | 77.00M | 16.00M | -303.00M |
Wayfair Technical Analysis
Positive
84.18
Price Trends
88.39
Positive
79.61
Positive
88.22
Positive
Market Momentum
4.91
Negative
57.93
Neutral
54.75
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For W, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 84.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 94.52, below the 50-day MA of 88.39, and below the 200-day MA of 88.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.91 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for W.
Wayfair Risk Analysis
Wayfair disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Wayfair reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Wayfair Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $29.51B | 27.06 | 53.29% | 1.25% | 1.30% | 1.14% | |
69 Neutral | $17.55B | 15.34 | 40.05% | 4.47% | 0.99% | 31.91% | |
66 Neutral | $7.29B | 37.56 | -17.67% | ― | 0.73% | 44.07% | |
66 Neutral | $9.20B | 47.55 | 44.82% | ― | 6.14% | -32.48% | |
64 Neutral | $3.75B | 12.15 | 18.85% | 5.35% | 30.50% | -13.32% | |
62 Neutral | $14.14B | -41.83 | 11.48% | ― | 7.46% | -2.70% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
* General Sector Average
W
Wayfair
102.94
23.89
30.22%
BBY
Best Buy Co
83.00
15.05
22.15%
WSM
Williams-Sonoma
245.15
42.56
21.01%
ETSY
Etsy
79.63
11.42
16.74%
CHWY
Chewy
22.35
-16.59
-42.60%
MNSO
MINISO Group Holding
11.90
-6.95
-36.88%
Wayfair Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Wayfair Shareholders Approve Expanded Equity Incentive Plan
Positive
May 22, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Wayfair Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where shareholders approved an amendment to the 2023 Incentive Award Plan to add 20,000,000 additional Class A shares for equity compensation, signaling continued reliance...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Wayfair Issues New Senior Secured Notes to Refinance Debt
Neutral
May 18, 2026
On May 18, 2026, Wayfair LLC issued $400 million of 7.125% senior secured notes due 2034, with semi-annual interest and a suite of covenants limiting additional indebtedness, dividends, certain investments and asset sales, while providing various ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Wayfair Prices $400 Million Senior Secured Notes Offering
Neutral
May 14, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Wayfair announced that its subsidiary Wayfair LLC had priced a private offering of $400 million in 7.125% senior secured notes due May 31, 2034, with the deal expected to close on May 18, 2026, subject to customary conditions. The...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Wayfair Plans $400 Million Senior Secured Notes Offering
Positive
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Wayfair Inc. announced that subsidiary Wayfair LLC plans a private offering of $400 million in senior secured notes due 2034, with the proceeds earmarked to repay part of the company’s existing debt and for general corporate...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.