Wayfair (W) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.56B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.60
• Revenue Growth: -0.89%
• EPS Growth: 46.62%
• Country: US
• Employees: 12,100
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 103,657,180
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,451,464
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,219,023
• PEG Ratio: -0.65
• Price to Book (P/B): -2.41
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 39.07
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.70
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -22.82
• 1Y Price Target: $55.00
• Price Target Upside: -16.21% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 25

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $63.00 ▼(-4.02%Downside)

Wayfair's overall score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and negative equity, which weigh heavily on its valuation. Despite these issues, there is positive momentum in technical analysis and strategic improvements noted in the earnings call. The bullish technical indicators and strategic growth in the U.S. market offer some optimism, though the stock remains risky due to financial instability and poor valuation metrics.

Positive Factors

Market Share

Wayfair continues to gain share as better availability and vendor-funded promotions drive trends.

Tariffs

A more benign tariff outlook with reduced tariffs on China-sourced goods positively impacts future financial estimates.

Negative Factors

Customer Base

Active customers are estimated to decline by 2.0% year over year in 2Q25.

Housing Market

Elevated interest rates and subsequent housing market softness are the main challenges facing the Home category, which continue to weigh on W's demand.

Wayfair Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Wayfair Inc. engages in the e-commerce business in the United States and internationally. The company provides approximately thirty-three million products for the home sector under various brands. It offers online selections of furniture, décor, housewares, and home improvement products through its sites, including Wayfair, Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, and Perigold brands. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Wayfair generates revenue primarily through the sale of home goods and furnishings via its e-commerce platform. The company's key revenue streams include direct sales, where Wayfair purchases products from suppliers and sells them to consumers, and a marketplace model, where third-party sellers list their products on Wayfair's platform and Wayfair earns a commission on each sale. Wayfair also invests in advertising and brand partnerships to drive traffic and sales, leveraging its logistics network to offer delivery and installation services that enhance customer satisfaction and retention. Additionally, Wayfair's data-driven approach enables personalized marketing and inventory management, further contributing to its earnings.

Wayfair Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Wayfair faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues and persistent losses. The balance sheet is highly leveraged with negative equity, and while cash flow has improved, operational inefficiencies and financial instability remain significant risks.

Income Statement

The revenue has been declining over the years with a TTM revenue of $11.85 billion, down from $14.15 billion in 2020. Gross profit margin is around 29.5% in TTM, but the company remains unprofitable with a net loss of $357 million. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company has negative stockholders' equity, which is a red flag. The debt-to-equity ratio cannot be calculated due to negative equity, but total debt exceeds total assets. The equity ratio is negative, indicating financial instability and high leverage.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has improved to $175 million in TTM from a negative $2 million in 2023, indicating better cash management. Operating cash flow covers net income losses, but cash flow from operations is relatively weak compared to historical performance.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.85B	12.00B	12.22B	13.71B	14.15B
Gross Profit	3.57B	3.67B	3.42B	3.90B	4.11B
EBITDA	-461.00M	-295.00M	-921.00M	224.00M	637.43M
Net Income	-492.00M	-738.00M	-1.33B	-131.00M	185.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.46B	3.47B	3.58B	4.57B	4.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.37B	1.35B	1.28B	2.40B	2.59B
Total Debt	4.22B	4.20B	4.16B	3.94B	3.53B
Total Liabilities	6.21B	6.18B	6.13B	6.19B	5.76B
Stockholders Equity	-2.75B	-2.71B	-2.55B	-1.62B	-1.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	83.00M	-2.00M	-1.13B	130.00M	1.08B
Operating Cash Flow	317.00M	349.00M	-674.00M	410.00M	1.42B
Investing Cash Flow	-262.00M	-152.00M	1.00M	-515.00M	-236.07M
Financing Cash Flow	-69.00M	77.00M	16.00M	-303.00M	352.59M

Wayfair Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 65.64
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For W, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 65.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 59.55, above the 50-day MA of 51.35, and above the 200-day MA of 43.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.67 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.34 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for W.

Wayfair Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EBAY	80 Outperform	$36.19B	18.76	42.63%	1.22%	2.93%	-10.82%
WSM	78 Outperform	$23.01B	21.18	51.10%	1.32%	1.64%	8.57%
CHWY	74 Outperform	$15.04B	40.27	76.24%	―	7.64%	369.79%
ETSY	63 Neutral	$6.29B	49.57	-39.97%	―	2.38%	-38.88%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$16.51B	10.46	-8.28%	3.32%	1.44%	-22.58%
RH	60 Neutral	$3.85B	48.88	-38.18%	―	8.31%	14.65%
W	52 Neutral	$8.56B	―	17.86%	―	-0.89%	46.62%

Wayfair Corporate Events

Wayfair Elects Directors at Annual Stockholders Meeting

On May 20, 2025, Wayfair Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders where all eight nominees for director were elected, and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal 2025. These decisions are expected to influence Wayfair’s governance and financial oversight, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (W) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Wayfair stock, see the W Stock Forecast page.