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Wayfair
(NYSE:W)
Select Model
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$92.00
▲(13.12% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/19/26
The score reflects improving operations and cash generation plus strong technical momentum, tempered by a highly stressed balance sheet (negative equity/high debt) and loss-driven valuation metrics. Earnings call guidance was supportive (EBITDA margin improvement, cost discipline), but macro/category weakness and margin pressure from loyalty investments remain meaningful risks.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow after prior outflows shows the business now generates meaningful internal liquidity. Durable cash conversion funds capex, loyalty and tech investments, supports debt paydown and reduces reliance on external financing across 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Weak balance sheet
Deeply negative equity and high absolute debt leave the capital structure strained, limiting flexibility for downturns or opportunistic investments. Even with improving cash flows, negative equity raises refinancing, covenant and restructuring risks in stressed scenarios.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow after prior outflows shows the business now generates meaningful internal liquidity. Durable cash conversion funds capex, loyalty and tech investments, supports debt paydown and reduces reliance on external financing across 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Wayfair Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down sales across regions (e.g., U.S., Canada, other markets) to show where Wayfair is growing or lagging. Regional splits reveal exposure to economic cycles, currency swings, shipping costs and market saturation that can affect growth prospects and margin stability.
Breaks down sales across regions (e.g., U.S., Canada, other markets) to show where Wayfair is growing or lagging. Regional splits reveal exposure to economic cycles, currency swings, shipping costs and market saturation that can affect growth prospects and margin stability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyWayfair (W) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$12.56B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.26M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.36
Revenue Growth6.80%
EPS Growth18.24%
CountryUS
Employees12,100
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.33
Shares Outstanding111,018,500
10 Day Avg. Volume3,979,925
30 Day Avg. Volume4,256,999
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.05
Price to Book (P/B)-4.70
Price to Sales (P/S)1.05
P/FCF Ratio28.21
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.52
Enterprise Value/Ebitda104.69
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$95.17Price Target Upside17.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering25
EPS Forecast (FY)2.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.16B
Wayfair Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Wayfair Inc. operates as a leading e-commerce enterprise, conducting its retail activities both across the United States and internationally. The company boasts an extensive catalog featuring approximately 33 million distinct products for the home...
How the Company Makes Money
Wayfair primarily makes money by selling home goods and furniture to customers through its e-commerce platforms, recognizing revenue from product sales when control transfers to the customer (i.e., when orders are fulfilled/shipped according to it...
Wayfair Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive operational and financial story: Wayfair reported solid revenue growth (+7.4% YoY), meaningful order/AOV improvements, best-in-years Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin (5.2%) and notable international and product/service momentum. Management is prioritizing profitable share gains via loyalty, verified offerings, store expansion and tech/AI investments while continuing aggressive balance sheet management (convertible repurchases, leverage reduction). Near-term challenges include a deeply cyclical home furnishings category (down vs. peak), gross margin pressure from loyalty/customer investments, and a negative free cash flow quarter driven by normal seasonality and working-capital timing. Overall, the positive indicators — share gains, EBITDA expansion, cost efficiencies, international traction and capital-structure progress — outweigh the near-term macro and margin headwinds.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Order Metrics
Net revenue grew 7.4% year-over-year in Q1 2026 (Niraj cited ~7%). Order growth was +3% and average order value (AOV) expanded +4% year-over-year. U.S. revenue was up 7.5% and International revenue was up 6%.
Negative Updates
Category Weakness and Macroeconomic Headwinds
Home furnishings category remains in a prolonged down cycle: management estimates the category is down 25%–30% versus the 2021 peak and was down in the low single-digit range in Q1 2026. Elevated energy and fuel prices, weather disruptions and depressed consumer spending continue to pressure the category.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Order Metrics
Net revenue grew 7.4% year-over-year in Q1 2026 (Niraj cited ~7%). Order growth was +3% and average order value (AOV) expanded +4% year-over-year. U.S. revenue was up 7.5% and International revenue was up 6%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Wayfair guided Q2 to mid-single‑digit year‑over‑year net revenue growth (based on a category trending down mid-single digits with Wayfair’s share spread holding in the high single digits), gross margin of 29.5%–30.5% of revenue (they expect north of $1B of gross profit dollars), customer service & merchant fees just below 4%, advertising at 10.5%–11.5% (implying contribution margin of roughly 15%), SOTG&A of $360M–$370M, adjusted EBITDA margin of 6%–7% (versus Q1’s 5.2% and $151M adjusted EBITDA), equity‑based comp & related taxes of $70M–$90M, D&A of $63M–$69M, net interest of ~$38M, weighted average diluted shares of ~132M, and CapEx of $55M–$65M.Wayfair Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.66B | 12.46B | 11.85B | 12.00B | 12.22B | 13.71B |
| Gross Profit | 3.81B | 3.77B | 3.57B | 3.67B | 3.42B | 3.90B |
| EBITDA | 128.00M | 82.00M | -66.00M | -295.00M | -921.00M | 224.00M |
| Net Income | -305.00M | -313.00M | -492.00M | -738.00M | -1.33B | -131.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.87B | 3.44B | 3.46B | 3.47B | 3.58B | 4.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.06B | 1.54B | 1.37B | 1.35B | 1.28B | 2.40B |
| Total Debt | 3.63B | 4.07B | 4.22B | 4.20B | 4.16B | 4.05B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.71B | 6.22B | 6.21B | 6.18B | 6.13B | 6.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | -2.84B | -2.78B | -2.75B | -2.71B | -2.55B | -1.62B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 456.00M | 464.00M | 83.00M | -2.00M | -1.13B | 130.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 578.00M | 534.00M | 317.00M | 349.00M | -674.00M | 410.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -248.00M | -219.00M | -262.00M | -152.00M | 1.00M | -515.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -647.00M | -129.00M | -69.00M | 77.00M | 16.00M | -303.00M |
Wayfair Technical Analysis
Positive
81.33
Price Trends
73.79
Positive
75.71
Positive
86.88
Positive
Market Momentum
6.52
Negative
68.76
Neutral
84.80
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For W, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 81.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 82.14, above the 50-day MA of 73.79, and below the 200-day MA of 86.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.52 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.80 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for W.
Wayfair Risk Analysis
Wayfair disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Wayfair reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Wayfair Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $26.86B | 25.18 | 53.29% | 1.37% | 1.30% | 1.14% | |
67 Neutral | $16.28B | 14.28 | 40.05% | 5.46% | 0.99% | 31.91% | |
67 Neutral | $6.91B | 25.20 | -25.47% | ― | 1.78% | 75.71% | |
62 Neutral | $8.43B | 43.83 | 44.82% | ― | 6.14% | -32.48% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $3.73B | 12.54 | 18.85% | 3.10% | 30.50% | -13.32% | |
57 Neutral | $12.56B | -40.83 | 10.98% | ― | 6.80% | 18.24% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
W
Wayfair
95.14
38.68
68.51%
BBY
Best Buy Co
77.23
9.42
13.90%
WSM
Williams-Sonoma
228.15
57.47
33.67%
ETSY
Etsy
72.83
19.87
37.52%
CHWY
Chewy
20.60
-20.38
-49.73%
MNSO
MINISO Group Holding
12.18
-5.30
-30.33%
Wayfair Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Wayfair Shareholders Approve Expanded Equity Incentive Plan
Positive
May 22, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Wayfair Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where shareholders approved an amendment to the 2023 Incentive Award Plan to add 20,000,000 additional Class A shares for equity compensation, signaling continued reliance...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Wayfair Issues New Senior Secured Notes to Refinance Debt
Neutral
May 18, 2026
On May 18, 2026, Wayfair LLC issued $400 million of 7.125% senior secured notes due 2034, with semi-annual interest and a suite of covenants limiting additional indebtedness, dividends, certain investments and asset sales, while providing various ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Wayfair Prices $400 Million Senior Secured Notes Offering
Neutral
May 14, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Wayfair announced that its subsidiary Wayfair LLC had priced a private offering of $400 million in 7.125% senior secured notes due May 31, 2034, with the deal expected to close on May 18, 2026, subject to customary conditions. The...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Wayfair Plans $400 Million Senior Secured Notes Offering
Positive
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Wayfair Inc. announced that subsidiary Wayfair LLC plans a private offering of $400 million in senior secured notes due 2034, with the proceeds earmarked to repay part of the company’s existing debt and for general corporate...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.