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Wayfair (W)
NYSE:W
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Wayfair
(NYSE:W)
Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$46.00
▼(-0.22%Downside)
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Wayfair reported solid Q1 results relative to expectations, with total revenue and profitability coming in ahead of consensus.
Market Share
Wayfair has been adding to its market share over the past few quarters, though picking up on an acceleration.
Negative Factors
Leadership Changes
Perigold's Chief Marketing Officer has departed, which may impact the leadership in the short term.
Revenue Guidance
The second-quarter outlook lacked revenue details, which could be challenged as tariff headwinds increase.
Wayfair (W) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.92B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.95M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.64
Revenue Growth-0.89%
EPS Growth46.62%
CountryUS
Employees12,100
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength58
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.10
Shares Outstanding103,657,180
10 Day Avg. Volume4,261,395
30 Day Avg. Volume4,953,698
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-1.37
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-3.08
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.70
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.21
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.87
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-24.28
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$44.92Price Target Upside-2.56% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering29
Wayfair Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionWayfair Inc. engages in the e-commerce business in the United States and internationally. The company provides approximately thirty-three million products for the home sector under various brands. It offers online selections of furniture, décor, housewares, and home improvement products through its sites, including Wayfair, Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, and Perigold brands. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
How the Company Makes MoneyWayfair generates revenue primarily through the sale of home goods and furnishings via its e-commerce platform. The company's key revenue streams include direct sales, where Wayfair purchases products from suppliers and sells them to consumers, and a marketplace model, where third-party sellers list their products on Wayfair's platform and Wayfair earns a commission on each sale. Wayfair also invests in advertising and brand partnerships to drive traffic and sales, leveraging its logistics network to offer delivery and installation services that enhance customer satisfaction and retention. Additionally, Wayfair's data-driven approach enables personalized marketing and inventory management, further contributing to its earnings.
Wayfair Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Active Customers
Counts the number of unique customers who have made a purchase over a specific period, reflecting the company’s market reach and customer retention success.
Counts the number of unique customers who have made a purchase over a specific period, reflecting the company’s market reach and customer retention success.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataWayfair Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 52.85%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted Wayfair's strategic growth in the U.S. market, significant improvements in supplier advertising and cost efficiency, and a solid financial position. However, challenges remain with flat revenue growth, negative free cash flow, and temporary margin pressures from CastleGate. The company's strategic initiatives and strong financial footing suggest resilience in navigating current market conditions.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
U.S. Business Growth Amidst Market Contraction
Year-over-year growth, excluding Germany, came in positively at 1%, driven by the U.S. business up 1.6% against a contracting market.
Supplier Advertising Business Expansion
Supplier advertising business grew by more than 50% in 2024 to over 150 basis points of revenue penetration, with a roadmap to reach 300 to 400 basis points.
Strong Financial Position
Wayfair issued a $700 million high-yield bond and refinanced its revolving credit facility, reducing 2025 and 2026 maturities and maintaining a healthy cash position with $1.4 billion in cash and $1.8 billion in total liquidity.
Significant Cost Efficiency Improvements
SOTG&A expenses were down by $50 million compared to the previous year, reflecting the company's cost efficiency efforts.
Positive Adjusted EBITDA
Generated $106 million of adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter, with a 3.9% margin on net revenue.
Negative Updates
Flat Revenue Growth
Net revenue was flat year over year, with a 10.9% decline in the international segment due to the exit of the German business.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow was negative $139 million for Q1, although it was an improvement of nearly $60 million compared to the first quarter of 2024.
CastleGate Margin Pressure
Temporary impact on gross margin due to accelerated inventory imports by suppliers leaning into CastleGate, increasing upfront costs.
Company Guidance
During the Wayfair First Quarter 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call, the company provided guidance for the second quarter of 2025, indicating an expected gross margin range of 30% to 31%, customer service and merchant fees just below 4%, and advertising expenses between 12% and 13%. Selling, operations, technology, general, and administrative expenses are projected to be between $360 million and $370 million. With an assumption of flat net revenue year-over-year, Wayfair anticipates an adjusted EBITDA margin of 4% to 5%. The company also expects equity-based compensation and related taxes of approximately $70 million to $90 million, depreciation and amortization of $75 million to $80 million, net interest expense of around $30 million, and capital expenditures in the range of $60 million to $70 million.Wayfair Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Wayfair faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues, persistent losses, and a highly leveraged balance sheet with negative equity. While cash flow has shown some improvement, significant risks remain due to operational inefficiencies and financial instability.Income Statement
The revenue has been declining over the years with a TTM revenue of $11.85 billion, down from $14.15 billion in 2020. Gross profit margin is around 29.5% in TTM, but the company remains unprofitable with a net loss of $357 million. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating operational challenges.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company has negative stockholders' equity, which is a red flag. The debt-to-equity ratio cannot be calculated due to negative equity, but total debt exceeds total assets. The equity ratio is negative, indicating financial instability and high leverage.30
Negative
Cash Flow
Free cash flow has improved to $175 million in TTM from a negative $2 million in 2023, indicating better cash management. Operating cash flow covers net income losses, but cash flow from operations is relatively weak compared to historical performance.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 11.85B | 11.85B | 12.00B | 12.22B | 13.71B | 14.15B |
| Gross Profit | |||||
| 3.49B | 3.57B | 3.67B | 3.42B | 3.90B | 4.11B |
| EBIT | |||||
| -347.00M | -461.00M | -813.00M | -1.31B | -86.00M | 360.35M |
| EBITDA | |||||
| -53.00M | -461.00M | -295.00M | -921.00M | 224.00M | 637.43M |
| Net Income Common Stockholders | |||||
| -357.00M | -492.00M | -738.00M | -1.33B | -131.00M | 185.00M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 1.37B | 1.37B | 1.35B | 1.28B | 2.40B | 2.59B |
| Total Assets | |||||
| 3.42B | 3.46B | 3.47B | 3.58B | 4.57B | 4.57B |
| Total Debt | |||||
| 3.91B | 4.22B | 4.20B | 4.16B | 3.94B | 3.53B |
| Net Debt | |||||
| 2.58B | 2.90B | 2.88B | 3.10B | 2.24B | 1.40B |
| Total Liabilities | |||||
| 6.23B | 6.21B | 6.18B | 6.13B | 6.19B | 5.76B |
| Stockholders Equity | |||||
| -2.81B | -2.75B | -2.71B | -2.55B | -1.62B | -1.19B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 175.00M | 83.00M | -2.00M | -1.13B | 130.00M | 1.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | |||||
| 360.00M | 317.00M | 349.00M | -674.00M | 410.00M | 1.42B |
| Investing Cash Flow | |||||
| -204.00M | -262.00M | -152.00M | 1.00M | -515.00M | -236.07M |
| Financing Cash Flow | |||||
| 71.00M | -69.00M | 77.00M | 16.00M | -303.00M | 352.59M |
Wayfair Technical Analysis
Positive
46.10
Price Trends
35.01
Positive
37.69
Positive
42.37
Positive
Market Momentum
3.35
Negative
65.72
Neutral
71.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For W, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 46.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.42, above the 50-day MA of 35.01, and above the 200-day MA of 42.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for W.
Wayfair Risk Analysis
Wayfair disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Wayfair reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Wayfair Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $35.66B | 18.49 | 36.48% | 1.50% | 2.04% | -15.61% | |
75 Outperform | $18.94B | 17.43 | 51.10% | 1.71% | 1.64% | 8.57% | |
75 Outperform | $17.30B | 46.67 | 76.24% | ― | 7.64% | 369.79% | |
68 Neutral | $5.84B | 39.77 | -39.97% | ― | 2.18% | -32.87% | |
62 Neutral | $6.82B | 11.05 | 2.80% | 4.32% | 2.67% | -24.92% | |
56 Neutral | $3.54B | 44.95 | -38.18% | ― | 8.31% | 14.65% | |
44 Neutral | $5.92B | ― | 17.86% | ― | -0.89% | 46.62% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
W
Wayfair
46.10
-7.19
-13.49%
EBAY
eBay
77.36
25.13
48.11%
WSM
Williams-Sonoma
153.96
3.74
2.49%
RH
RH
189.12
-42.36
-18.30%
ETSY
Etsy
55.99
-2.71
-4.62%
CHWY
Chewy
41.67
18.86
82.68%
Wayfair Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Wayfair Elects Directors at Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 22, 2025
On May 20, 2025, Wayfair Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders where all eight nominees for director were elected, and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal 2025. These decisions are expected to influence Wayfair’s governance and financial oversight, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder confidence.
The most recent analyst rating on (W) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Wayfair stock, see the W Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.