Wayfair (W) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.24B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.04M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.45
• Revenue Growth: 3.35%
• EPS Growth: 42.99%
• Country: US
• Employees: 12,100
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.70
• Shares Outstanding: 106,879,780
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,901,361
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,037,064
• PEG Ratio: 0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): -1.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.46
• P/FCF Ratio: 65.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.84
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 135.13
• 1Y Price Target: $115.36
• Price Target Upside: 13.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 26
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.36
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $12.41B

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $95.00 ▼(-6.50% Downside)

Wayfair's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial instability, with significant leverage and persistent losses. While the earnings call and corporate events provide a positive outlook, the technical analysis and valuation indicate caution. The company's strategic investments in technology and AI offer potential for future growth, but current financial challenges remain a significant risk.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective sales strategies, supporting long-term business expansion.

Advancements in AI and Technology

Investments in AI and technology enhance operational efficiency and customer experience, providing a competitive edge.

Improved Free Cash Flow

Improved cash flow management strengthens financial stability and supports future investments and debt reduction.

Negative Factors

Financial Instability

Negative equity and high leverage indicate financial instability, potentially limiting future growth and increasing risk.

Declining Revenue

Declining revenue trends suggest challenges in maintaining market share and could impact long-term profitability.

Regulatory Challenges

Regulatory scrutiny on pricing practices could lead to operational changes and potential fines, affecting profitability.

Wayfair Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Wayfair Inc. engages in the e-commerce business in the United States and internationally. The company provides approximately thirty-three million products for the home sector under various brands. It offers online selections of furniture, décor, housewares, and home improvement products through its sites, including Wayfair, Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, and Perigold brands. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Wayfair generates revenue primarily through the sale of home goods on its online platform. The company operates on a direct-to-consumer model, earning money from the sale of products, which includes furniture, decor, and other home-related items. Additionally, Wayfair earns revenue through shipping fees charged to customers, especially for large items that require special handling. Another significant revenue stream comes from its partnership with third-party sellers who list their products on Wayfair's marketplace, allowing the company to earn commissions on sales made through its platform. Furthermore, Wayfair invests in advertising and marketing strategies to drive traffic to its website, enhancing its sales potential. The company's extensive logistics network and focus on customer service also contribute to customer retention and repeat purchases, ultimately impacting its bottom line.

Wayfair Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Wayfair faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues, persistent losses, and a highly leveraged balance sheet with negative equity. While cash flow has shown some improvement, significant risks remain due to operational inefficiencies and financial instability.

Income Statement

The revenue has been declining over the years with a TTM revenue of $11.85 billion, down from $14.15 billion in 2020. Gross profit margin is around 29.5% in TTM, but the company remains unprofitable with a net loss of $357 million. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company has negative stockholders' equity, which is a red flag. The debt-to-equity ratio cannot be calculated due to negative equity, but total debt exceeds total assets. The equity ratio is negative, indicating financial instability and high leverage.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has improved to $175 million in TTM from a negative $2 million in 2023, indicating better cash management. Operating cash flow covers net income losses, but cash flow from operations is relatively weak compared to historical performance.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.24B	11.85B	12.00B	12.22B	13.71B	14.15B
Gross Profit	3.70B	3.57B	3.67B	3.42B	3.90B	4.11B
EBITDA	105.00M	-66.00M	-295.00M	-921.00M	224.00M	637.43M
Net Income	-325.00M	-492.00M	-738.00M	-1.33B	-131.00M	185.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.12B	3.46B	3.47B	3.58B	4.57B	4.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.23B	1.37B	1.35B	1.28B	2.40B	2.59B
Total Debt	3.60B	4.22B	4.20B	4.16B	4.05B	3.63B
Total Liabilities	5.88B	6.21B	6.18B	6.13B	6.19B	5.76B
Stockholders Equity	-2.77B	-2.75B	-2.71B	-2.55B	-1.62B	-1.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	389.00M	83.00M	-2.00M	-1.13B	130.00M	1.08B
Operating Cash Flow	494.00M	317.00M	349.00M	-674.00M	410.00M	1.42B
Investing Cash Flow	-234.00M	-262.00M	-152.00M	1.00M	-515.00M	-236.07M
Financing Cash Flow	-375.00M	-69.00M	77.00M	16.00M	-303.00M	352.59M

Wayfair Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 101.60
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For W, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 101.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 100.71, above the 50-day MA of 98.16, and above the 200-day MA of 65.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for W.

Wayfair Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WSM	75 Outperform	$22.46B	20.68	56.92%	1.37%	5.10%	7.59%
MNSO	72 Outperform	$6.01B	20.21	20.83%	3.10%	13.37%	-19.37%
BBY	62 Neutral	$14.58B	22.97	22.49%	5.46%	-0.95%	-48.28%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
ETSY	57 Neutral	$5.43B	38.48	―	―	1.98%	-20.98%
CHWY	54 Neutral	$13.28B	66.05	59.58%	―	9.80%	-46.84%
W	52 Neutral	$13.24B	-39.70	―	―	3.35%	42.99%

Wayfair Corporate Events

Wayfair Repurchases $210M Convertible Senior Notes

On November 7 and November 10, 2025, Wayfair Inc. repurchased approximately $210 million of its outstanding 3.25% convertible senior notes due 2027 for about $375 million. This move is part of Wayfair’s strategy to manage liabilities, reduce upcoming maturities, and mitigate potential equity dilution. The company aims to manage its convertible debt through various financial strategies, potentially affecting the trading liquidity of its notes and the market price of its common stock.

Wayfair Issues $700M Senior Secured Notes

On November 7, 2025, Wayfair LLC, a subsidiary of Wayfair Inc., issued $700 million in 6.75% senior secured notes due in 2032. The proceeds from this issuance are intended to repurchase portions of its outstanding convertible senior notes due in 2027 and 2028 and for general corporate purposes. This financial maneuver could affect the market price of Wayfair’s Class A common stock due to potential derivative unwinding transactions by holders of the repurchased notes. Additionally, Wayfair announced the appointment of Hal Lawton, CEO of Tractor Supply Company, to its board of directors on November 6, 2025. Lawton’s extensive experience in the retail industry is expected to provide valuable insights as Wayfair continues to expand its business.

Wayfair Announces $700 Million Private Offering

On November 4, 2025, Wayfair announced the pricing of a $700 million private offering of 6.75% senior secured notes due 2032 by its subsidiary, Wayfair LLC. The proceeds from this offering are intended to repurchase portions of Wayfair’s outstanding convertible senior notes due in 2027 and 2028, as well as for general corporate purposes. This financial maneuver could potentially impact the market price of Wayfair’s Class A common stock due to related derivative transactions by note holders.

Wayfair Announces $700M Senior Secured Notes Offering

On November 4, 2025, Wayfair announced that its subsidiary, Wayfair LLC, plans to offer $700 million in senior secured notes due 2032 in a private offering. The proceeds are intended to repurchase portions of its outstanding convertible senior notes due 2027 and 2028, and for general corporate purposes. This move could impact the market price of Wayfair’s Class A common stock due to potential derivative unwinding by note holders. The notes will be guaranteed by Wayfair and certain subsidiaries, secured by the same assets as its existing credit facilities.

Wayfair Approves Equity Award for CEO Niraj Shah

In September 2025, Wayfair‘s Board of Directors approved a significant performance-based equity award for CEO Niraj Shah, designed to retain and incentivize him through ambitious stock price targets over a ten-year period. The award aims to align leadership with long-term value creation, requiring substantial stock price increases and Shah’s continued leadership, potentially adding over $75 billion in stockholder value if fully realized.