Wayfair (W)
NYSE:W
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Wayfair
(NYSE:W)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$61.00
▼(-25.00% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score is held back primarily by a stressed balance sheet (negative equity, high debt) and weak price/indicator setup (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting this are improving operations and cash generation, plus supportive earnings-call guidance for higher EBITDA margins and continued cost discipline, while valuation remains difficult to justify given ongoing net losses and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation
Wayfair's TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow have turned strongly positive versus recent years, providing a durable internal source to fund growth, invest in loyalty/tech, and pay down liabilities. Reliable cash generation materially improves financial optionality even while net losses persist.
Negative Factors
Weak balance sheet
Deeply negative equity and high absolute debt constrain financial flexibility and raise refinancing and covenant risks. In a downside scenario the strained capital structure limits the company's ability to absorb shocks, increases borrowing costs, and narrows strategic options for M&A or buybacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving cash generation
Wayfair's TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow have turned strongly positive versus recent years, providing a durable internal source to fund growth, invest in loyalty/tech, and pay down liabilities. Reliable cash generation materially improves financial optionality even while net losses persist.
Read all positive factors
Wayfair Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down sales across regions (e.g., U.S., Canada, other markets) to show where Wayfair is growing or lagging. Regional splits reveal exposure to economic cycles, currency swings, shipping costs and market saturation that can affect growth prospects and margin stability.
Breaks down sales across regions (e.g., U.S., Canada, other markets) to show where Wayfair is growing or lagging. Regional splits reveal exposure to economic cycles, currency swings, shipping costs and market saturation that can affect growth prospects and margin stability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyWayfair (W) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.82B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.98M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.31
Revenue Growth6.80%
EPS Growth18.24%
CountryUS
Employees12,100
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.33
Shares Outstanding111,018,500
10 Day Avg. Volume3,988,086
30 Day Avg. Volume3,980,692
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.06
Price to Book (P/B)-4.70
Price to Sales (P/S)1.05
P/FCF Ratio28.21
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.30
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.68
Enterprise Value/Ebitda49.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$95.12Price Target Upside16.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering26
EPS Forecast (FY)2.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.14B
Wayfair Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Wayfair Inc. engages in the e-commerce business in the United States and internationally. The company provides approximately thirty-three million products for the home sector under various brands. It offers online selections of furniture, décor, h...
How the Company Makes Money
Wayfair primarily makes money by selling home goods to customers through its e-commerce platforms, recording revenue when it fulfills customer orders. Its core revenue stream is net product revenue from retail sales, which includes the sale of ite...
Wayfair Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive operational and financial story: Wayfair reported solid revenue growth (+7.4% YoY), meaningful order/AOV improvements, best-in-years Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin (5.2%) and notable international and product/service momentum. Management is prioritizing profitable share gains via loyalty, verified offerings, store expansion and tech/AI investments while continuing aggressive balance sheet management (convertible repurchases, leverage reduction). Near-term challenges include a deeply cyclical home furnishings category (down vs. peak), gross margin pressure from loyalty/customer investments, and a negative free cash flow quarter driven by normal seasonality and working-capital timing. Overall, the positive indicators — share gains, EBITDA expansion, cost efficiencies, international traction and capital-structure progress — outweigh the near-term macro and margin headwinds.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Order Metrics
Net revenue grew 7.4% year-over-year in Q1 2026 (Niraj cited ~7%). Order growth was +3% and average order value (AOV) expanded +4% year-over-year. U.S. revenue was up 7.5% and International revenue was up 6%.
Negative Updates
Category Weakness and Macroeconomic Headwinds
Home furnishings category remains in a prolonged down cycle: management estimates the category is down 25%–30% versus the 2021 peak and was down in the low single-digit range in Q1 2026. Elevated energy and fuel prices, weather disruptions and depressed consumer spending continue to pressure the category.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Order Metrics
Net revenue grew 7.4% year-over-year in Q1 2026 (Niraj cited ~7%). Order growth was +3% and average order value (AOV) expanded +4% year-over-year. U.S. revenue was up 7.5% and International revenue was up 6%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Wayfair guided Q2 to mid-single‑digit year‑over‑year net revenue growth (based on a category trending down mid-single digits with Wayfair’s share spread holding in the high single digits), gross margin of 29.5%–30.5% of revenue (they expect north of $1B of gross profit dollars), customer service & merchant fees just below 4%, advertising at 10.5%–11.5% (implying contribution margin of roughly 15%), SOTG&A of $360M–$370M, adjusted EBITDA margin of 6%–7% (versus Q1’s 5.2% and $151M adjusted EBITDA), equity‑based comp & related taxes of $70M–$90M, D&A of $63M–$69M, net interest of ~$38M, weighted average diluted shares of ~132M, and CapEx of $55M–$65M.Wayfair Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.66B | 12.46B | 11.85B | 12.00B | 12.22B | 13.71B |
| Gross Profit | 3.81B | 3.77B | 3.57B | 3.67B | 3.42B | 3.90B |
| EBITDA | 206.00M | 82.00M | -66.00M | -295.00M | -921.00M | 224.00M |
| Net Income | -305.00M | -313.00M | -492.00M | -738.00M | -1.33B | -131.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.87B | 3.44B | 3.46B | 3.47B | 3.58B | 4.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.06B | 1.54B | 1.37B | 1.35B | 1.28B | 2.40B |
| Total Debt | 3.63B | 4.07B | 4.22B | 4.20B | 4.16B | 4.05B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.71B | 6.22B | 6.21B | 6.18B | 6.13B | 6.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | -2.84B | -2.78B | -2.75B | -2.71B | -2.55B | -1.62B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 456.00M | 464.00M | 83.00M | -2.00M | -1.13B | 130.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 578.00M | 534.00M | 317.00M | 349.00M | -674.00M | 410.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -248.00M | -219.00M | -262.00M | -152.00M | 1.00M | -515.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -647.00M | -129.00M | -69.00M | 77.00M | 16.00M | -303.00M |
Wayfair Technical Analysis
Negative
81.33
Price Trends
71.84
Negative
84.11
Negative
86.92
Negative
Market Momentum
-4.41
Positive
31.87
Neutral
10.76
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For W, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 81.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.68, above the 50-day MA of 71.84, and below the 200-day MA of 86.92, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.76 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for W.
Wayfair Risk Analysis
Wayfair disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Wayfair reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Wayfair Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $4.42B | -69.24 | 11.27% | 3.10% | 26.47% | -53.64% | |
67 Neutral | $19.92B | 17.32 | 51.45% | 1.37% | 1.24% | -1.80% | |
66 Neutral | $5.58B | 17.26 | -25.47% | ― | 1.78% | 75.71% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $12.20B | 6.35 | 38.54% | 5.46% | 0.39% | 17.90% | |
52 Neutral | $7.82B | -23.46 | 10.98% | ― | 6.80% | 18.24% | |
50 Neutral | $9.01B | 75.03 | 51.43% | ― | 6.24% | -41.25% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
W
Wayfair
57.40
19.26
50.50%
BBY
Best Buy Co
59.29
-8.06
-11.97%
WSM
Williams-Sonoma
171.76
1.73
1.02%
ETSY
Etsy
57.61
10.45
22.16%
CHWY
Chewy
19.66
-24.46
-55.44%
MNSO
MINISO Group Holding
14.11
-6.07
-30.07%
Wayfair Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Wayfair Plans $400 Million Senior Secured Notes Offering
Positive
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Wayfair Inc. announced that subsidiary Wayfair LLC plans a private offering of $400 million in senior secured notes due 2034, with the proceeds earmarked to repay part of the company’s existing debt and for general corporate...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Wayfair Repurchases Convertible Notes to Optimize Capital Structure
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
Between February 25 and March 4, 2026, Wayfair used part of the proceeds from its 6.75% senior secured notes due 2032 to repurchase about $56 million in principal of its 3.50% convertible senior notes due 2028 for approximately $99 million, plus a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.