Wayfair (W) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.65B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.16M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.45
• Revenue Growth: 3.35%
• EPS Growth: 42.99%
• Country: US
• Employees: 12,100
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.70
• Shares Outstanding: 106,879,780
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,659,224
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,157,987
• PEG Ratio: 0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): -1.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.46
• P/FCF Ratio: 65.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.05
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.17
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.86
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 136.01
• 1Y Price Target: $123.08
• Price Target Upside: 17.90% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $108.00 ▲(3.46% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by elevated financial risk (negative profitability, deeply negative equity, and sizable debt), despite improving cash generation. Offsetting this, the stock’s technical trend is strong and the latest earnings call was constructive with positive growth and EBITDA-margin guidance, while valuation remains unattractive due to losses (negative P/E) and no dividend data.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective sales strategies, supporting long-term business expansion.

Advancements in AI and Technology

Investments in AI and technology enhance operational efficiency and customer experience, providing a competitive edge.

Improved Free Cash Flow

Improved cash flow management strengthens financial stability and supports future investments and debt reduction.

Negative Factors

Financial Instability

Negative equity and high leverage indicate financial instability, potentially limiting future growth and increasing risk.

Declining Revenue

Declining revenue trends suggest challenges in maintaining market share and could impact long-term profitability.

Regulatory Challenges

Regulatory scrutiny on pricing practices could lead to operational changes and potential fines, affecting profitability.

Wayfair Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Wayfair Inc. engages in the e-commerce business in the United States and internationally. The company provides approximately thirty-three million products for the home sector under various brands. It offers online selections of furniture, décor, housewares, and home improvement products through its sites, including Wayfair, Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, and Perigold brands. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Wayfair generates revenue primarily through the sale of home goods on its online platform. The company operates on a direct-to-consumer model, earning money from the sale of products, which includes furniture, decor, and other home-related items. Additionally, Wayfair earns revenue through shipping fees charged to customers, especially for large items that require special handling. Another significant revenue stream comes from its partnership with third-party sellers who list their products on Wayfair's marketplace, allowing the company to earn commissions on sales made through its platform. Furthermore, Wayfair invests in advertising and marketing strategies to drive traffic to its website, enhancing its sales potential. The company's extensive logistics network and focus on customer service also contribute to customer retention and repeat purchases, ultimately impacting its bottom line.

Wayfair Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow is a key positive (TTM operating cash flow ~$494M and free cash flow ~$389M with strong improvement), and revenue is back to modest growth with steady ~30% gross margin. However, profitability remains negative (operating and net losses) and the balance sheet is the main risk due to deeply negative equity and sizable debt (~$3.6B), limiting financial flexibility.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is up modestly (+1.94%) and gross margin is steady around ~30%, showing resilient demand and pricing/merchandising discipline. However, profitability remains the key issue: the company is still generating operating losses (negative EBIT margin) and a negative net margin, even though results have improved meaningfully versus 2022–2024. Overall, the trajectory is better, but the business has not yet proven consistent earnings power.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is pressured by a large negative equity position (TTM stockholders’ equity is deeply negative), which limits financial flexibility and makes leverage risk harder to absorb in a downturn. Total debt remains sizeable (roughly $3.6B TTM) and, with negative equity, leverage indicators are structurally unfavorable. While losses have narrowed, the capital structure is still the primary financial risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the bright spot: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is positive (~$494M) and free cash flow is solid (~$389M), with very strong free-cash-flow growth versus the prior annual period. That said, cash flow relative to debt service requirements is not especially high, and the company has a history of volatility (including negative operating and free cash flow in 2022). Still, recent cash performance is clearly improving and supportive of liquidity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.24B	11.85B	12.00B	12.22B	13.71B	14.15B
Gross Profit	3.70B	3.57B	3.67B	3.42B	3.90B	4.11B
EBITDA	105.00M	-66.00M	-295.00M	-921.00M	224.00M	637.43M
Net Income	-325.00M	-492.00M	-738.00M	-1.33B	-131.00M	185.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.12B	3.46B	3.47B	3.58B	4.57B	4.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.23B	1.37B	1.35B	1.28B	2.40B	2.59B
Total Debt	3.60B	4.22B	4.20B	4.16B	4.05B	3.63B
Total Liabilities	5.88B	6.21B	6.18B	6.13B	6.19B	5.76B
Stockholders Equity	-2.77B	-2.75B	-2.71B	-2.55B	-1.62B	-1.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	389.00M	83.00M	-2.00M	-1.13B	130.00M	1.08B
Operating Cash Flow	494.00M	317.00M	349.00M	-674.00M	410.00M	1.42B
Investing Cash Flow	-234.00M	-262.00M	-152.00M	1.00M	-515.00M	-236.07M
Financing Cash Flow	-375.00M	-69.00M	77.00M	16.00M	-303.00M	352.59M

Wayfair Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 104.39
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For W, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 104.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 110.02, below the 50-day MA of 105.05, and above the 200-day MA of 76.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.89 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for W.

Wayfair Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WSM	75 Outperform	$25.55B	23.53	56.92%	1.37%	5.10%	7.59%
MNSO	72 Outperform	$5.61B	19.06	20.83%	3.10%	13.37%	-19.37%
BBY	62 Neutral	$13.81B	21.76	22.49%	5.46%	-0.95%	-48.28%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
CHWY	61 Neutral	$11.78B	55.94	59.58%	―	9.80%	-46.84%
W	58 Neutral	$13.65B	-40.79	―	―	3.35%	42.99%
ETSY	57 Neutral	$5.29B	37.26	―	―	1.98%	-20.98%

Wayfair Corporate Events

Wayfair Repurchases $210M Convertible Senior Notes

On November 7 and November 10, 2025, Wayfair Inc. repurchased approximately $210 million of its outstanding 3.25% convertible senior notes due 2027 for about $375 million. This move is part of Wayfair’s strategy to manage liabilities, reduce upcoming maturities, and mitigate potential equity dilution. The company aims to manage its convertible debt through various financial strategies, potentially affecting the trading liquidity of its notes and the market price of its common stock.

The most recent analyst rating on (W) stock is a Buy with a $135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Wayfair stock, see the W Stock Forecast page.

Wayfair Issues $700M Senior Secured Notes

On November 7, 2025, Wayfair LLC, a subsidiary of Wayfair Inc., issued $700 million in 6.75% senior secured notes due in 2032. The proceeds from this issuance are intended to repurchase portions of its outstanding convertible senior notes due in 2027 and 2028 and for general corporate purposes. This financial maneuver could affect the market price of Wayfair’s Class A common stock due to potential derivative unwinding transactions by holders of the repurchased notes. Additionally, Wayfair announced the appointment of Hal Lawton, CEO of Tractor Supply Company, to its board of directors on November 6, 2025. Lawton’s extensive experience in the retail industry is expected to provide valuable insights as Wayfair continues to expand its business.

The most recent analyst rating on (W) stock is a Buy with a $135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Wayfair stock, see the W Stock Forecast page.

Wayfair Announces $700 Million Private Offering

On November 4, 2025, Wayfair announced the pricing of a $700 million private offering of 6.75% senior secured notes due 2032 by its subsidiary, Wayfair LLC. The proceeds from this offering are intended to repurchase portions of Wayfair’s outstanding convertible senior notes due in 2027 and 2028, as well as for general corporate purposes. This financial maneuver could potentially impact the market price of Wayfair’s Class A common stock due to related derivative transactions by note holders.

The most recent analyst rating on (W) stock is a Buy with a $135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Wayfair stock, see the W Stock Forecast page.

Wayfair Announces $700M Senior Secured Notes Offering

On November 4, 2025, Wayfair announced that its subsidiary, Wayfair LLC, plans to offer $700 million in senior secured notes due 2032 in a private offering. The proceeds are intended to repurchase portions of its outstanding convertible senior notes due 2027 and 2028, and for general corporate purposes. This move could impact the market price of Wayfair’s Class A common stock due to potential derivative unwinding by note holders. The notes will be guaranteed by Wayfair and certain subsidiaries, secured by the same assets as its existing credit facilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (W) stock is a Buy with a $135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Wayfair stock, see the W Stock Forecast page.