Wayfair (W)
NYSE:W
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Wayfair
(NYSE:W)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$80.00
▲(11.19% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/07/26
The score is driven by improving operating results and sharply better free cash flow, reinforced by constructive earnings-call guidance and deleveraging progress. Offsetting these positives are a weak capital structure (negative equity and sizable debt) and bearish technical signals, with valuation support limited by ongoing net losses and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation
Substantially higher operating and free cash flow shows the business is generating material internal funding, reducing near-term reliance on external financing. Sustained FCF provides ammunition for deleveraging, liability management, and disciplined reinvestment in rewards, stores, and tech, improving resilience across cycles.
Negative Factors
Negative shareholders' equity
Persistently negative equity and sizable absolute debt limit financial flexibility and increase dependency on capital markets or operating cash to meet obligations. In downturns this capital-structure profile raises refinancing and covenant risks and constrains strategic options despite improving cash flow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation
Substantially higher operating and free cash flow shows the business is generating material internal funding, reducing near-term reliance on external financing. Sustained FCF provides ammunition for deleveraging, liability management, and disciplined reinvestment in rewards, stores, and tech, improving resilience across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Wayfair (W) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.41B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.76M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.41
Revenue Growth3.35%
EPS Growth42.99%
CountryUS
Employees12,100
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.85
Shares Outstanding108,769,570
10 Day Avg. Volume3,666,185
30 Day Avg. Volume3,764,007
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.06
Price to Book (P/B)-4.70
Price to Sales (P/S)1.05
P/FCF Ratio28.21
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.94
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.11
Enterprise Value/Ebitda97.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$107.18Price Target Upside48.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering23
EPS Forecast (FY)2.92
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.11B
Wayfair Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Wayfair Inc. engages in the e-commerce business in the United States and internationally. The company provides approximately thirty-three million products for the home sector under various brands. It offers online selections of furniture, décor, h...
How the Company Makes Money
Wayfair generates revenue primarily through the sale of home goods on its online platform. The company operates on a direct-to-consumer model, earning money from the sale of products, which includes furniture, decor, and other home-related items. ...
Wayfair Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyWayfair Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong operational and financial wins: revenue growth (7.8% ex-Germany), sustained customer acquisition, meaningful margin expansion (contribution margin +250 bps YoY), large adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow improvements, significant deleveraging (net leverage <2.5x), and early success scaling strategic initiatives such as Wayfair Rewards and physical stores. Management acknowledged macro/category softness, near-term gross margin headwinds from strategic investments (tens of basis points), and seasonal working capital outflows in Q1, but framed these as intentional, accretive investments aimed at durable, compounding share gains and faster profit-dollar growth. On balance, the highlights (profitability, cash flow, deleveraging, program traction, and clear strategy with measurable guidance) materially outweigh the modest and largely strategic lowlights.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Net revenue grew 6.9% year-over-year on a reported basis and 7.8% year-over-year excluding the Germany exit; U.S. revenue was up >7% and international revenue grew ~4%.
Negative Updates
Macroeconomic / Category Weakness
Core home category contracted in the low single digits in Q4 and is starting the year with negative comps; management acknowledges category recovery timing is uncertain and may be a slow burn.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Net revenue grew 6.9% year-over-year on a reported basis and 7.8% year-over-year excluding the Germany exit; U.S. revenue was up >7% and international revenue grew ~4%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q1 2026 Wayfair guided to mid‑single‑digit year‑over‑year net revenue growth, adjusted gross margin in the 30–31% range (likely the low end), customer service and merchant fees just under 4% of revenue, advertising at 11–12% of revenue, and a contribution margin of roughly 15%; S,G&A is expected to be $360M–$370M (likely the lower end) and adjusted EBITDA is guided to 4.5%–5.5% of net revenue (with the first quarter a cash‑outflow period due to working capital). Additional Q1 parameters: equity‑based compensation and related taxes ~$70M–$90M, depreciation & amortization ~$67M–$73M, net interest expense ~$37M, weighted average shares ~132M, and CapEx $55M–$65M.Wayfair Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12.46B | 11.85B | 12.00B | 12.22B | 13.71B |
| Gross Profit | 3.77B | 3.57B | 3.67B | 3.42B | 3.90B |
| EBITDA | 82.00M | -66.00M | -295.00M | -921.00M | 224.00M |
| Net Income | -313.00M | -492.00M | -738.00M | -1.33B | -131.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.44B | 3.46B | 3.47B | 3.58B | 4.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.54B | 1.37B | 1.35B | 1.28B | 2.40B |
| Total Debt | 4.07B | 4.22B | 4.20B | 4.16B | 4.05B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.22B | 6.21B | 6.18B | 6.13B | 6.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | -2.78B | -2.75B | -2.71B | -2.55B | -1.62B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 464.00M | 83.00M | -2.00M | -1.13B | 130.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 534.00M | 317.00M | 349.00M | -674.00M | 410.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -219.00M | -262.00M | -152.00M | 1.00M | -515.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -129.00M | -69.00M | 77.00M | 16.00M | -303.00M |
Wayfair Technical Analysis
Negative
71.95
Price Trends
83.35
Negative
94.03
Negative
84.91
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.65
Negative
42.41
Neutral
40.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For W, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 71.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 75.05, below the 50-day MA of 83.35, and below the 200-day MA of 84.91, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for W.
Wayfair Risk Analysis
Wayfair disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Wayfair reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Wayfair Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $5.07B | 28.32 | 25.85% | 3.10% | 13.37% | -19.37% | |
67 Neutral | $21.73B | 23.88 | 51.45% | 1.37% | 5.10% | 7.59% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $5.24B | 33.41 | -15.36% | ― | 1.98% | -20.98% | |
54 Neutral | $9.41B | -41.81 | 11.30% | ― | 3.35% | 42.99% | |
52 Neutral | $11.06B | 52.77 | 51.43% | ― | 9.80% | -46.84% | |
51 Neutral | $13.43B | 12.85 | 38.54% | 5.46% | -0.95% | -48.28% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
W
Wayfair
71.95
47.81
198.05%
BBY
Best Buy Co
64.20
11.03
20.74%
WSM
Williams-Sonoma
182.62
45.53
33.21%
ETSY
Etsy
54.40
13.60
33.33%
CHWY
Chewy
26.54
-4.67
-14.96%
MNSO
MINISO Group Holding
16.22
2.07
14.67%
Wayfair Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Wayfair Repurchases Convertible Notes to Optimize Capital Structure
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
Between February 25 and March 4, 2026, Wayfair used part of the proceeds from its 6.75% senior secured notes due 2032 to repurchase about $56 million in principal of its 3.50% convertible senior notes due 2028 for approximately $99 million, plus a...
Business Operations and Strategy
Wayfair Announces Redemption of 2027 Convertible Senior Notes
Neutral
Feb 6, 2026
On February 6, 2026, Wayfair announced it had issued a redemption notice for $250 million in principal amount of its 3.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027, setting March 23, 2026 as the redemption date, when any notes not converted by holders wi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.