Wayfair (W) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.69B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.92M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.69
• Revenue Growth: 0.87%
• EPS Growth: 54.67%
• Country: US
• Employees: 12,100
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 75
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.87
• Shares Outstanding: 105,002,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,724,101
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,923,733
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.78
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.76
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.57
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.14K
• 1Y Price Target: $80.35
• Price Target Upside: -10.89% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 27

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $82.00 ▼(-9.06% Downside)

Wayfair's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial instability and negative valuation metrics. However, strong technical indicators and positive earnings call sentiment provide some optimism. The company's strategic initiatives in logistics and customer engagement are promising, but significant financial risks remain.

Positive Factors

Revenue and Profitability Growth

Wayfair's revenue growth indicates successful strategic initiatives and market penetration, suggesting potential for sustained profitability improvements.

Tech Replatforming and GenAI Initiatives

Investment in technology and AI enhances customer experience and operational efficiency, providing a competitive edge and supporting long-term growth.

CastleGate Logistics Expansion

Expansion of logistics capabilities strengthens supply chain efficiency and customer satisfaction, crucial for sustaining market position and growth.

Negative Factors

Financial Instability

Ongoing financial instability and high leverage pose risks to Wayfair's long-term viability, potentially limiting strategic flexibility and investment capacity.

Negative Stockholders' Equity

Negative equity indicates financial distress and potential solvency issues, undermining investor confidence and posing long-term operational risks.

Tariff Investigation on Furniture

Potential tariffs on furniture imports could increase costs and disrupt supply chains, impacting Wayfair's pricing strategy and market competitiveness.

Wayfair Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Wayfair Inc. engages in the e-commerce business in the United States and internationally. The company provides approximately thirty-three million products for the home sector under various brands. It offers online selections of furniture, décor, housewares, and home improvement products through its sites, including Wayfair, Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, and Perigold brands. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Wayfair generates revenue primarily through the sale of home goods on its e-commerce platforms. The company employs a marketplace model, where it lists products both from its own inventory and from third-party suppliers. Revenue is earned through direct sales and by charging suppliers a commission on sales made through the platform. Additionally, Wayfair offers a range of services such as shipping and delivery, which may also contribute to its revenue. The company invests in marketing and customer acquisition to drive traffic to its websites, and it has established partnerships with various manufacturers and brands to expand its product offerings. Factors contributing to its earnings include seasonal promotions, loyalty programs, and the ability to leverage data analytics to optimize inventory and personalize the shopping experience.

Wayfair Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Wayfair faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues, persistent losses, and a highly leveraged balance sheet with negative equity. While cash flow has shown some improvement, significant risks remain due to operational inefficiencies and financial instability.

Income Statement

The revenue has been declining over the years with a TTM revenue of $11.85 billion, down from $14.15 billion in 2020. Gross profit margin is around 29.5% in TTM, but the company remains unprofitable with a net loss of $357 million. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company has negative stockholders' equity, which is a red flag. The debt-to-equity ratio cannot be calculated due to negative equity, but total debt exceeds total assets. The equity ratio is negative, indicating financial instability and high leverage.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has improved to $175 million in TTM from a negative $2 million in 2023, indicating better cash management. Operating cash flow covers net income losses, but cash flow from operations is relatively weak compared to historical performance.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.01B	11.85B	12.00B	12.22B	13.71B	14.15B
Gross Profit	3.56B	3.57B	3.67B	3.42B	3.90B	4.11B
EBITDA	8.00M	-461.00M	-295.00M	-921.00M	224.00M	637.43M
Net Income	-300.00M	-492.00M	-738.00M	-1.33B	-131.00M	185.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.28B	3.46B	3.47B	3.58B	4.57B	4.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.38B	1.37B	1.35B	1.28B	2.40B	2.59B
Total Debt	3.75B	4.22B	4.20B	4.16B	4.05B	3.63B
Total Liabilities	6.00B	6.21B	6.18B	6.13B	6.19B	5.76B
Stockholders Equity	-2.72B	-2.75B	-2.71B	-2.55B	-1.62B	-1.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	252.00M	83.00M	-2.00M	-1.13B	130.00M	1.08B
Operating Cash Flow	388.00M	317.00M	349.00M	-674.00M	410.00M	1.42B
Investing Cash Flow	-218.00M	-262.00M	-152.00M	1.00M	-515.00M	-236.07M
Financing Cash Flow	-132.00M	-69.00M	77.00M	16.00M	-303.00M	352.59M

Wayfair Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 90.17
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For W, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 90.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 80.04, above the 50-day MA of 70.16, and above the 200-day MA of 48.32, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.18 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.12 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for W.

Wayfair Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EBAY	77 Outperform	$42.25B	20.17	42.63%	1.23%	3.05%	-10.82%
WSM	76 Outperform	$24.68B	22.28	51.75%	1.21%	3.28%	9.29%
CHWY	68 Neutral	$14.94B	101.64	34.48%	―	9.04%	-56.79%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.09B	12.97	-1.60%	2.98%	1.42%	-15.92%
RH	59 Neutral	$4.27B	54.23	-38.18%	―	8.31%	14.65%
ETSY	59 Neutral	$5.91B	47.66	-39.97%	―	2.38%	-38.88%
W	57 Neutral	$11.69B	―	17.86%	―	0.87%	54.67%

Wayfair Corporate Events

Wayfair Repurchases $101M Convertible Senior Notes

On August 20, 2025, Wayfair Inc. repurchased approximately $101 million of its 3.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2028 for about $199 million, as part of its liability management strategy. This move aims to reduce upcoming maturities and manage potential dilution, impacting the trading liquidity of outstanding convertible notes and potentially affecting the market price of Wayfair’s common stock.