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Chewy Inc (CHWY)
NYSE:CHWY

Chewy (CHWY) AI Stock Analysis

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CHWY

Chewy

(NYSE:CHWY)

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Neutral 63 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$26.00
▼(-3.95% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance and strong cash generation, reinforced by a constructive earnings call with continued growth in Autoship and expanding profitability. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (price below major moving averages, negative MACD) and a demanding valuation (high P/E with no dividend support).
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sustained TTM operating cash flow (~$636M) and FCF (~$487M) create durable internal funding for reinvestment, working capital and buybacks. Strong cash conversion improves financial flexibility, lowers reliance on external capital, and underpins long-term strategic initiatives.
Recurring revenue (Autoship)
Robust Autoship growth (13.6%, $2.61B) strengthens recurring revenue mix and customer retention. Predictable repeat purchases raise lifetime value, smooth demand, and support margin stability versus one‑time transactions, reinforcing a durable competitive advantage in e‑commerce pet retail.
Completed CFO succession
Formalizing a permanent CFO with internal finance and operations experience reduces execution risk and signals board confidence. Deppe's institutional knowledge and performance‑linked incentives can sharpen capital allocation, margin discipline, and multi‑year delivery on the 10% adjusted EBITDA target.
Negative Factors
Thin net margins
A TTM net margin near 1.6% leaves a narrow earnings cushion versus cost shocks or promotional cycles. Even with improving operating profit, thin bottom‑line profitability constrains internal reinvestment, limits shock absorption, and makes sustainable earnings progress sensitive to modest margin setbacks.
SG&A and margin pressure risk
Elevated SG&A and explicit guidance for sequential margin compression from promotions and rising media costs indicate structural cost volatility. Persistent promotional intensity or higher marketing expenses could erode margin gains and require ongoing discipline to sustain long‑term profitability targets.
Balance sheet sensitivity
Although absolute debt is moderate (~$523M), a relatively small and volatile equity base produces elevated leverage ratios. That sensitivity magnifies downside risk in adverse conditions, reduces financial flexibility, and can raise funding costs or constrain strategic capital deployment.

Chewy (CHWY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Chewy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionChewy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the pure play e-commerce business in the United States. The company provides pet food and treats, pet supplies and pet medications, and other pet-health products, as well as pet services for dogs, cats, fish, birds, small pets, horses, and reptiles through its www.chewy.com retail Website, as well as its mobile applications. It offers approximately 100,000 products from 3,000 partner brands. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Dania Beach, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyChewy generates revenue primarily through the sale of pet food and supplies via its online platform. The company's key revenue streams include direct product sales, subscription services through autoship, and various promotional partnerships with pet brands and manufacturers. Autoship subscriptions provide a predictable revenue stream, as customers can set up recurring orders for their pet essentials, often at discounted prices. Additionally, Chewy has established partnerships with leading pet product manufacturers, enabling it to offer exclusive products and promotions, which further enhance its sales. The company also invests in customer engagement strategies, such as personalized recommendations and loyalty programs, to increase repeat purchases and drive overall revenue growth.

Chewy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Active Customers
Active Customers
Indicates the total number of customers making purchases, reflecting the company's market reach and customer base growth.
Chart InsightsChewy's active customer base has rebounded after a period of stagnation, reaching 20.9 million by mid-2025, a 4.5% increase. This growth aligns with strategic initiatives like the Chewy Vet Care network and Chewy+ membership program, which are enhancing customer engagement. The earnings call highlighted a record 83% of sales from Autoship customers, underscoring loyalty and recurring revenue. Despite some cost challenges, Chewy's focus on expanding market share and customer experience positions it well for sustained growth.
Data provided by:The Fly

Chewy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Dec 10, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call was largely positive, with significant revenue growth, improved profitability, and strong performance of strategic initiatives like Chewy+ and health services. However, some challenges remain with SG&A costs and expected margin pressures in Q4.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Q3 net sales grew over 8% year-over-year to $3.12 billion, exceeding the high end of guidance. Autoship customer sales increased by 13.6% to $2.61 billion.
Improved Profitability
Adjusted EBITDA reached $181 million, up 30% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 100 basis points to 5.8%.
Free Cash Flow Surge
Generated approximately $176 million of free cash flow in the quarter, up nearly $70 million sequentially.
Chewy+ Membership Program Success
Chewy+ continues to outperform expectations, driving higher order frequency and category engagement. Raised annual fee from $49 to $79, with strong conversion retention.
Expansion of Health Services
Chewy Vet Care (CVC) continues to exceed expectations, with two additional practices opened, bringing the total to 14 locations.
Negative Updates
SG&A Challenges
SG&A, excluding share-based compensation and related taxes, was $588.6 million or 18.9% of net sales, including $2.7 million of onetime transaction costs.
Q4 Margins Forecasted to Decline
Guidance implies Q4 EBITDA margins will take a step down on a sequential basis due to higher promotional levels and increased media rates.
Company Guidance
During the Chewy Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company reported a strong financial performance, with net sales growing by 8.3% year-over-year to $3.12 billion, surpassing their Q3 guidance. Chewy's Autoship program saw a 13.6% increase in sales, reaching $2.61 billion, and active customers grew by nearly 5% to 21.2 million. The firm achieved a gross margin expansion of 50 basis points to 29.8% and a significant rise in adjusted EBITDA by 30% year-over-year to $181 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.8%. Free cash flow generation was robust at $176 million, enabling a $55 million share repurchase. Chewy narrowed its full-year 2025 net sales outlook to between $12.58 billion and $12.6 billion, reflecting an 8% year-over-year growth, and adjusted its EBITDA margin outlook to 5.6% to 5.7%. The company continues to focus on expanding its health offerings, with Chewy Vet Care growing to 14 locations and the acquisition of Smart Equine expected to bolster its premium health segment.

Chewy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Improving fundamentals supported by stronger gross margin (~29.6% TTM), a shift to positive operating profit/net income, and notably strong operating cash flow (~$636M TTM) and free cash flow (~$487M TTM). Offsets are still-thin net margin (~1.6% TTM) and a modest/volatile equity base that makes leverage metrics less comfortable despite manageable absolute debt.
Income Statement
68
Positive
CHWY’s profitability trajectory has improved meaningfully versus earlier years, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) showing positive operating profit and net income. Gross margin has gradually strengthened over time (roughly mid‑20%s in 2021 to ~29.6% TTM), signaling better unit economics and/or pricing discipline. The key weakness is that bottom-line profitability remains thin (TTM net margin ~1.6%), and growth is inconsistent—annual revenue growth slowed in 2025 versus prior years despite the strong TTM growth figure, suggesting momentum may be uneven.
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Leverage looks manageable in absolute dollars (TTM debt of ~$523M against ~$3.29B in assets), but equity has been volatile and relatively low, which keeps leverage metrics elevated (debt-to-equity ~1.11 TTM and materially higher in some prior years). Return on equity is very high in recent periods, but this is amplified by a smaller equity base, so it’s less “clean” as a quality signal. Overall, the balance sheet is improved from earlier stress points, but still carries sensitivity due to modest equity cushion.
Cash Flow
74
Positive
Cash generation is a clear positive: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow (~$636M) and free cash flow (~$487M) are strong and have grown versus prior years. Free cash flow conversion is solid but not exceptional (TTM free cash flow is ~76% of net income), implying some working-capital and/or reinvestment needs. While operating cash flow strength supports flexibility, the data also implies cash flow is not dramatically outpacing accounting earnings, which modestly tempers the score.
BreakdownTTMJan 2025Jan 2024Jan 2023Jan 2022Jan 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue12.58B11.86B11.15B10.12B8.97B7.15B
Gross Profit3.72B3.47B3.16B2.83B2.39B1.82B
EBITDA338.25M271.77M161.50M138.56M-17.72M-54.80M
Net Income206.39M392.74M39.58M49.90M-75.21M-92.49M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.29B3.01B3.19B2.52B2.09B1.74B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments701.50M596.66M1.13B678.59M603.08M563.35M
Total Debt523.00M502.40M527.79M471.82M410.17M328.23M
Total Liabilities2.83B2.75B2.68B2.36B2.07B1.74B
Stockholders Equity469.40M261.46M510.24M160.27M14.74M-2.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow487.00M452.49M342.93M119.28M8.55M2.01M
Operating Cash Flow635.72M596.33M486.21M349.57M191.74M132.75M
Investing Cash Flow-178.81M394.57M-287.36M-615.48M-193.27M-123.69M
Financing Cash Flow-288.00M-996.74M71.60M-6.73M41.26M342.20M

Chewy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price27.07
Price Trends
50DMA
29.85
Negative
100DMA
32.35
Negative
200DMA
36.29
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.99
Negative
RSI
47.70
Neutral
STOCH
85.11
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHWY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 27.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.25, below the 50-day MA of 29.85, and below the 200-day MA of 36.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.11 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CHWY.

Chewy Risk Analysis

Chewy disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Chewy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Chewy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$9.10B23.8014.92%10.16%18.29%
63
Neutral
$11.23B55.9059.58%9.80%-46.84%
63
Neutral
$16.32B251.821.51%3.33%3.26%-25.41%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
55
Neutral
$4.51B7.004.16%-1.04%-20.88%
51
Neutral
$12.91B20.4622.49%5.46%-0.95%-48.28%
51
Neutral
$739.67M-243.52-0.19%-3.85%97.87%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CHWY
Chewy
27.07
-7.25
-21.12%
BBY
Best Buy Co
61.59
-9.77
-13.69%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
118.55
-0.49
-0.41%
BBWI
Bath & Body Works
22.04
-11.02
-33.33%
WOOF
Petco Health and Wellness Company
2.63
0.17
6.91%
CART
Maplebear
37.84
-0.60
-1.56%

Chewy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Chewy Finalizes CFO Succession, Reaffirms Profitability Targets
Positive
Feb 24, 2026

On February 23, 2026, Chewy’s board appointed Christopher S. “Chris” Deppe as Chief Financial Officer and principal financial officer, ending the interim tenure of Chief Accounting Officer William Billings in that role, while Billings remains CAO. Deppe, a veteran finance leader who joined Chewy in 2022 after more than 16 years at Amazon and earlier roles at Intel, receives a compensation package centered on salary, bonus eligibility, and substantial multi-year, performance-linked equity grants approved in connection with his promotion.

In a February 24, 2026 press release, Chewy highlighted Deppe’s role in sharpening its financial strategy and operational rigor and reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 guidance and long-term plan to reach a 10% adjusted EBITDA margin. The move signals a completed CFO succession process after a competitive search involving external candidates and underscores the board’s confidence that Deppe’s institutional knowledge and disciplined execution will support durable, profitable, capital-efficient growth for customers, partners, and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CHWY) stock is a Hold with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chewy stock, see the CHWY Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Chewy announces upcoming retirement of Chief Technology Officer
Neutral
Jan 20, 2026

On January 13, 2026, Chewy, Inc. announced that its Chief Technology Officer, Satish Mehta, had notified the company of his intention to retire, with his departure effective February 6, 2026. The company said it will begin a search for his successor, signaling an upcoming leadership transition in its technology organization that could influence Chewy’s long-term digital and operational strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (CHWY) stock is a Buy with a $52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chewy stock, see the CHWY Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 25, 2026