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Chewy
(NYSE:CHWY)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$24.50
▲(17.45% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/14/26
CHWY scores highest on improving financial performance—especially strong free cash flow and expanding profitability from prior losses—supported by earnings-call evidence of margin progress and a durable Autoship-driven revenue mix. The score is capped by still-thin margins and moderate leverage for a retailer, mixed technical positioning (below key longer-term moving averages), and a high P/E that leaves less room for execution missteps amid softened sales guidance and slower customer net adds.
Positive Factors
Recurring Revenue / Autoship
Autoship represents a durable, high-share recurring revenue stream (84.4% of net sales) that smooths demand, raises customer lifetime value and reduces acquisition frequency. Over a 2-6 month horizon this predictable mix supports revenue visibility, inventory planning and margin resilience versus one-time transactional sales.
Negative Factors
Thin Overall Profitability
Despite improvement, absolute operating and net margins remain slender, leaving earnings and cash generation sensitive to input-cost shocks, fuel surcharges and promotional pressure. Small margin squeezes can materially compress net income and FCF, elevating execution risk across the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring Revenue / Autoship
Autoship represents a durable, high-share recurring revenue stream (84.4% of net sales) that smooths demand, raises customer lifetime value and reduces acquisition frequency. Over a 2-6 month horizon this predictable mix supports revenue visibility, inventory planning and margin resilience versus one-time transactional sales.
Read all positive factors
Chewy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Active Customers
Indicates the total number of customers making purchases, reflecting the company's market reach and customer base growth.
Indicates the total number of customers making purchases, reflecting the company's market reach and customer base growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyChewy (CHWY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.18B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)9.44M
Price to Earnings (P/E)47.7
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth6.14%
EPS Growth-32.48%
CountryUS
Employees18,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.47
Shares Outstanding232,945,980
10 Day Avg. Volume8,419,201
30 Day Avg. Volume9,437,369
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.25
Price to Book (P/B)23.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.93
P/FCF Ratio20.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$31.44Price Target Upside50.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)0.79
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.49B
Chewy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) is a U.S.-based e-commerce company in the pet retail sector that sells pet food, treats, supplies, and other pet-related products through its online platform. The company also offers pet health-focused services, including an onl...
How the Company Makes Money
Chewy primarily makes money by selling pet products directly to consumers online, generating revenue when customers purchase items such as pet food, treats, consumables, and hardgoods (e.g., toys, crates, accessories). A significant driver of sale...
Chewy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 10, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and financial picture: solid top-line growth, meaningful margin expansion (7.5% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q1), strong Autoship penetration, accelerating free cash flow (FCF +45% YoY), and strategic investments (SmartPak, Modern Animal, AI, Vet Care) that expand TAM and strengthen long-term economics. Offsetting these positives are near-term macro-driven pressures: softer consumer spending that is muting premiumization and attach rates, a downward revision to fiscal 2026 net sales guidance, and some margin cadence headwinds driven by prior-year comps, fuel surcharges and a modest FY2026 margin impact from Modern Animal. Overall, the company is emphasizing discipline, ongoing strategic investments, and confidence in its structural margin opportunity while prudently moderating short-term revenue assumptions.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth in Q1
Q1 net sales of approximately $3.36 billion, up 7.7% year-over-year, reflecting balanced contribution from active customer growth and NSPAC expansion.
Negative Updates
Softer Consumer Environment and Guidance Revision
Management updated fiscal 2026 net sales guidance to $13.40 billion–$13.55 billion (6.3%–7.5% YoY growth), reflecting a more conservative view due to a weakening consumer environment and slower-than-expected premiumization/attach behavior.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth in Q1
Q1 net sales of approximately $3.36 billion, up 7.7% year-over-year, reflecting balanced contribution from active customer growth and NSPAC expansion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Chewy updated its fiscal 2026 outlook with full‑year net sales of $13.40–13.55 billion (≈6.3–7.5% YoY), including about $80 million from SmartPak and $70 million from Modern Animal, and kept full‑year adjusted EBITDA margin at 6.6–6.8% (implying roughly $900 million of adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint); Q2 guidance calls for net sales of $3.30–3.33 billion (≈6–7% YoY), adjusted EBITDA margin of 6.3–6.4% (≈50 bps YoY expansion at the midpoint) and adjusted diluted EPS of about $0.36, while noting a modest Q2 gross‑margin headwind from lapping prior‑year MAP benefits and a mid‑single‑digit million fuel‑surcharge impact (assumed similarly for the year). The company said quarterly net customer additions are expected to trend toward the lower end of its prior ~150k–250k range, projects AI efficiencies to deliver a low‑tens‑of‑millions benefit in 2026 with a larger ramp in 2027, expects to exit FY26 with ~60 clinics (steady‑state clinic revenue contribution ~ $290M), and plans to end the year with ~420M diluted shares outstanding, approximately $520M cash, over $1B total liquidity, net interest expense of ~$10–15M, an effective tax rate of 24–26%, and a target to keep net leverage below 2x adjusted EBITDA.Chewy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
57
Neutral
Cash Flow
79
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.75B | 12.60B | 11.86B | 11.15B | 10.12B | 8.97B |
| Gross Profit | 3.79B | 3.75B | 3.47B | 3.16B | 2.83B | 2.39B |
| EBITDA | 368.40M | 397.20M | 271.77M | 161.50M | 138.56M | -17.72M |
| Net Income | 199.60M | 222.80M | 392.74M | 39.58M | 49.90M | -75.21M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.30B | 3.59B | 3.01B | 3.19B | 2.52B | 2.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 520.10M | 878.80M | 596.66M | 1.13B | 678.59M | 603.08M |
| Total Debt | 484.10M | 556.80M | 502.40M | 527.79M | 471.82M | 410.17M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.88B | 3.10B | 2.75B | 2.68B | 2.36B | 2.07B |
| Stockholders Equity | 424.20M | 497.90M | 261.46M | 510.24M | 160.27M | 14.74M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 584.50M | 562.40M | 452.49M | 342.93M | 119.28M | 8.55M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 713.70M | 691.60M | 596.33M | 486.21M | 349.57M | 191.74M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -339.20M | -151.80M | 394.57M | -287.36M | -615.48M | -193.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -505.80M | -276.00M | -996.74M | 71.60M | -6.73M | 41.26M |
Chewy Technical Analysis
Negative
20.86
Price Trends
20.89
Positive
22.64
Negative
26.58
Negative
Market Momentum
0.45
Positive
52.34
Neutral
18.64
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHWY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.51, below the 50-day MA of 20.89, and below the 200-day MA of 26.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.64 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CHWY.
Chewy Risk Analysis
Chewy disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Chewy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Chewy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $11.32B | 25.73 | 17.63% | ― | 12.61% | 2.28% | |
69 Neutral | $18.21B | 15.97 | 40.05% | 4.47% | 0.99% | 31.91% | |
66 Neutral | $9.18B | 47.70 | 44.82% | ― | 6.14% | -32.48% | |
63 Neutral | $3.91B | 5.59 | -52.38% | 4.02% | -1.40% | -4.34% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $18.62B | 519.35 | 0.72% | 3.37% | 5.47% | -95.54% | |
49 Neutral | $805.29M | 136.23 | 0.48% | ― | -1.91% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CHWY
Chewy
22.42
-18.53
-45.25%
BBY
Best Buy Co
86.42
18.41
27.08%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
135.03
2.63
1.99%
BBWI
Bath & Body Works
19.41
-9.59
-33.08%
WOOF
Petco Health and Wellness Company
2.82
-0.65
-18.73%
CART
Maplebear
48.88
2.96
6.45%
Chewy Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Chewy Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
Jul 13, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on July 9, 2026, Chewy, Inc. re-elected Raymond Svider, Marco Castelli, Nat Goldhaber, James Nelson, and Martin H. Nesbitt as Class I directors to serve until the 2029 annual meeting, or until successors ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Chewy Establishes New Term Loan, Extends Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 24, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Chewy, Inc. entered into a new seven-year senior secured term loan credit facility totaling $600 million with JPMorgan Chase Bank and other lenders, bearing interest at a margin over either a base rate or Term SOFR and amortizing...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.