Maplebear (CART) AI Stock Analysis

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Maplebear

(NASDAQ:CART)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:72Outperform

Price Target:

$40.00

▲(6.64% Upside)

Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26

Score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, strong free cash flow, and very low leverage) and supportive guidance/sentiment from the latest earnings call. This is partially offset by weak technicals (price below key moving averages and negative MACD) and only mid-range valuation support at a ~22.7 P/E with no dividend yield provided.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow generation

Consistent, large free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: it funds reinvestment in product and enterprise expansion, supports sizeable buybacks and cushions the business through demand cycles. FCF tracking >90% of net income signals earnings quality and cash-driven optionality.

Conservatively capitalized balance sheet

Very low leverage reduces refinancing and solvency risk and preserves capacity for strategic investments or shareholder returns. With minimal debt and mid-teens ROE recently, the company can absorb shocks, fund enterprise rollouts, and maintain operational runway without relying on external borrowing.

Large marketplace and advertising scale

A broad advertiser base and growing on-platform reach create durable monetization and network effects: as retailer and brand scale rises, ad inventory and targeting improve, diversifying revenue beyond transactions and enhancing margins over time as ad yield and enterprise offerings mature.

Negative Factors

Top-line growth moderation

Slowing revenue growth reduces the natural leverage to margins and the pace at which operating scale converts into higher profitability. As growth decelerates, management must rely more on higher-margin ad and enterprise revenue to sustain margin expansion, raising execution demands over the medium term.

Historical earnings volatility / 2023 swing

Material past swings in profitability make forward earnings less predictable and increase sensitivity of equity value to shocks. Even with low leverage, volatility complicates planning, capital allocation and investor confidence, requiring robust margin and revenue diversification to reduce recurrence risk.

Rising cost of revenue from publisher payments

If monetization increasingly depends on paying publishers or third parties, gross and net margins face sustained pressure. Structural increases in pass-through ad costs limit the profit capture from ad revenue growth and force either higher prices to brands or margin compression if ad demand softens.

Maplebear (CART) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$9.85B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)5.65M

Price to Earnings (P/E)23.6

Beta (1Y)0.93

Revenue Growth10.16%

EPS Growth18.29%

CountryUS

Employees3,265

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength84

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.30

Shares Outstanding262,532,960

10 Day Avg. Volume6,183,191

30 Day Avg. Volume5,652,450

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio22.22

Price to Book (P/B)4.33

Price to Sales (P/S)3.14

P/FCF Ratio12.90

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.92

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.43

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.31

Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.64

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$49.74

Price Target Upside32.60% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering23

EPS Forecast (FY)2.38

Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.15B

Maplebear Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMaplebear Inc., doing business as Instacart, provides online grocery shopping services to households in North America. The company connects the consumer with a personal shopper to shop and deliver a range of products, such as food, alcohol, consumer health, pet care, ready-made meals, and others. The company offers its services through a mobile application or website. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyMaplebear generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by charging delivery fees for its services. Customers pay a service charge for each order, which varies based on distance and delivery speed. Additionally, the company partners with local retailers and brands, offering them a platform to reach consumers through Maplebear's delivery network for a fee or commission on sales made through the platform. Subscription models for frequent users who wish to enjoy lower delivery fees or unlimited deliveries also contribute to the revenue. Moreover, advertising partnerships with brands looking to promote their products within the Maplebear app add an additional layer of income. Overall, the combination of delivery fees, commissions from retailers, subscription services, and advertising partnerships forms the core of Maplebear's revenue model.

Maplebear Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Gross Transaction Volume

Gross Transaction Volume
Represents the total value of transactions processed, highlighting the scale of business operations and market reach.

Chart InsightsMaplebear's Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) has shown a steady upward trajectory, with a notable 10% year-over-year increase in Q3 2025, reaching $9.17 billion. This growth aligns with strong order volume and positive unit economics. However, challenges like a 4% decrease in average order value and regulatory hurdles in New York could pose risks. The company's confidence is reflected in an expanded share repurchase program, signaling optimism about future growth despite potential advertising revenue impacts from macroeconomic uncertainties.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Maplebear Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call conveyed clear momentum across marketplace, enterprise and advertising engines with strong Q4 operational metrics (GTV +14%, orders +16%), meaningful profitability expansion (adjusted EBITDA +20%) and aggressive capital returns. Management emphasized AI-driven productivity gains, enterprise expansions (380+ storefronts) and in-store monetization traction (Caper), while acknowledging one-time legal costs (including a $60M FTC settlement), incremental publisher payments that raised cost of revenue in 2025, and continued macro/advertiser uncertainty. Guidance for Q1 and commitment to adjusted EBITDA growth that outpaces GTV reinforce a constructive outlook despite some near-term margin moderation and early-stage initiatives.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong GTV and Order Growth

Q4 GTV of $9.85 billion, up 14% year-over-year (strongest GTV growth in 3 years); quarterly orders reached 89.5 million, up 16% year-over-year.

Adjusted EBITDA and Cash Flow Expansion

Adjusted EBITDA grew 20% year-over-year to $303 million. Operating cash flow increased 20% year-over-year to $184 million.

Aggressive Share Repurchases and Solid Liquidity

Repurchased $1.1 billion of shares in Q4 and $1.4 billion in 2025 overall; ended 2025 with approximately $1 billion in cash and similar assets and $671 million remaining buyback capacity.

Advertising and Other Revenue Growth

Advertising and other revenue grew 10% year-over-year in Q4; advertiser base expanded to more than 9,000 brands (up from 7,000 a year ago). Carrot Ads reach expanded to 310+ retailer-owned sites (up from 220 a year ago).

Guidance: Strong Q1 and Continued EBITDA Focus

Q1 2026 guidance: GTV $10.25B–$10.275B (11%–13% year-over-year growth); advertising and other revenue guide +11% to +14% YoY; Q1 adjusted EBITDA guided to $280M–$290M (up 15%–19% YoY). Company reiterates target of adjusted EBITDA growth that outpaces GTV for fiscal 2026.

Enterprise and Marketplace Scale

Marketplace accessibility: 2,200+ retail banners across ~100,000 locations. Enterprise: powering 380+ grocery e-commerce sites, with strong 'land-and-expand' examples (Costco, Sprouts) demonstrating multi-product adoption and international rollouts.

AI-Driven Productivity and Product Acceleration

Engineering productivity: average output per engineer up nearly 40% year-over-year, with 10% of the team increasing output by ~80%. Management reports AI enabling new projects to be built >4x faster and improved system reliability while increasing throughput.

Customer and Cohort Momentum

2025: more than 26 million customers used Instacart; December saw ~10 million unique customers place at least one order (company high). GTV from the 2025 new-customer cohort was the largest added since 2022 and retention improved year-over-year.

In-Store Technology Traction (Caper Carts)

Thousands of Caper cart commitments, live in nearly 100 cities across 15 states; pilots with Sprouts, Wegmans, Wakefern (live in ~20% of their stores); shoppable display prompts delivering ~1 percentage point lift in basket size on average.

International Expansion Wins

Launched Costco same-day sites in France and Spain; pilots/rollouts planned or underway with other international retailers (Coles in Australia, Morrisons pilot in U.K.), leveraging existing enterprise products rather than building new tech stacks.

Instacart+ Performance

Instacart+ represents the majority of GTV and orders; paid membership base growing with higher engagement and retention versus nonmembers; lowered $0 delivery minimum to $10 to capture smaller baskets and broaden use cases.

Negative Updates

GAAP Net Income Decline Due to Nonrecurring Charges

Q4 GAAP net income was $81 million, down 46% year-over-year, primarily driven by higher G&A related to nonrecurring legal and regulatory matters including a $60 million settlement with the FTC.

Increase in Cost of Revenue from Publisher Payments

Some advertising growth led to higher payments to publishers (what the company pays certain Carrot Ads partners and ad budgets deployed on behalf of brands), increasing cost of revenue in 2025; management expects year-over-year growth of these payments to moderate in 2026.

Average Order Value Slight Decline

Average order value decreased by 1% year-over-year in Q4, attributed to growth in restaurant orders (smaller baskets relative to grocery weekly shops).

Macro Uncertainty Impacting Some Large Brand Advertisers

Management noted that certain large brand partners continue to navigate macro uncertainty, which tempered some advertising demand even though overall ads performance exceeded expectations.

Moderation in EBITDA Expansion Pace Expected

While adjusted EBITDA is expected to continue growing faster than GTV in 2026, management expects the rate of EBITDA expansion to moderate as the company reinvests to accelerate growth and laps prior expense efficiencies.

Off-Platform Ads and Some Initiatives Still Early-Stage

Off-platform advertising and data solutions are in early phases: off-platform is a smaller contributor today, consumer-agentic (AI) channels and external integrations show promise but currently represent a nascent portion of demand and monetization.

Competitive Intensity in Market

Competitive activity from Amazon, DoorDash and others expanding same-day or grocery offerings remains a market risk; management asserts impact on Instacart has been limited so far but acknowledges competition could influence retailer strategies and customer behaviors.

Company Guidance

Instacart guided Q1 FY2026 GTV of $10.25–$10.275 billion (implying 11–13% YoY growth), noting GTV should outpace orders growth as it laps last year’s $10 Instacart+ minimum; Q1 advertising and other revenue is expected to grow 11–14% YoY; and Q1 adjusted EBITDA is guided to $280–$290 million (up 15–19% YoY, but down sequentially due to advertising seasonality). For fiscal 2026 the company expects adjusted EBITDA to continue growing YoY at a pace that outpaces GTV growth, though the rate of EBITDA expansion will moderate as they reinvest and lap prior efficiency gains, and management expects payments‑to‑publishers growth to moderate. For context, Q4 2025 results included GTV $9.85B (+14% YoY), orders 89.5M (+16%), AOV −1%, transaction revenue +13% (7.1% of GTV), ads & other +10%, adjusted EBITDA $303M (+20%), operating cash flow $184M (+20%), ~$1B cash and $671M remaining buyback capacity after $1.4B repurchases in 2025.

Maplebear Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals: scaled revenue meaningfully and now posts strong gross/operating margins, robust free cash flow ($911M in 2025), and an exceptionally low-debt balance sheet. Score is tempered by decelerating 2025 revenue growth and historical profitability volatility (notably the 2023 drawdown) plus some margin compression versus 2024.

Income Statement

Positive

Revenue has scaled meaningfully over the period, rising from $1.48B (2020) to $3.74B (2025), showing strong expansion even as growth moderated to 3% in 2025 after 11% in 2024. Profitability improved sharply versus the large 2023 loss, with 2024–2025 delivering solid net margins (~12–14%) and healthy operating profitability (2025 operating margin ~15%). Gross margins remain very strong (~74% in 2025), but net margin compression in 2025 versus 2024 and the history of material earnings volatility (notably 2023) temper the score.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The balance sheet is conservatively positioned with very low leverage: debt-to-equity stayed minimal (~0.8%–3.2% historically; ~2.5% in 2025) and total debt is only $69M against $2.71B of equity in 2025. Returns on equity are attractive in the most recent years (mid-teens in 2024–2025), indicating efficient use of capital during profitable periods. The key drawback is the sharp swing in profitability in 2023 (negative return on equity that year), which highlights that equity value can still be sensitive to earnings shocks even with low debt.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow rose to $972M in 2025 and free cash flow reached $911M, up from $623M in 2024. Free cash flow closely tracks earnings (free cash flow is roughly 90%+ of net income in 2022–2025), supporting earnings quality. However, cash flow has shown some variability (including negative operating cash flow in 2020–2021), and cash conversion relative to net income remains only slightly above 1x in 2025, suggesting less cushion if profitability weakens.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.74B	3.38B	3.04B	2.55B	1.83B
Gross Profit	2.75B	2.54B	2.28B	1.83B	1.23B
EBITDA	655.00M	556.00M	-2.08B	109.00M	-59.00M
Net Income	447.00M	457.00M	-1.62B	428.00M	-73.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.69B	4.12B	4.73B	3.67B	2.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	859.00M	1.52B	2.19B	1.79B	1.50B
Total Debt	69.00M	26.00M	40.00M	49.00M	54.00M
Total Liabilities	974.00M	1.02B	977.00M	911.00M	712.00M
Stockholders Equity	2.71B	3.09B	3.75B	2.76B	2.25B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	911.00M	623.00M	530.00M	251.00M	-226.00M
Operating Cash Flow	972.00M	687.00M	586.00M	277.00M	-204.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-208.00M	-107.00M	135.00M	117.00M	-330.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.39B	-1.41B	-30.00M	46.00M	464.00M

Maplebear Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price37.51

Price Trends

50DMA

39.82

Negative

100DMA

39.97

Negative

200DMA

42.75

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.56

Negative

RSI

51.33

Neutral

STOCH

67.83

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CART, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 37.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.93, below the 50-day MA of 39.82, and below the 200-day MA of 42.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CART.

Maplebear Risk Analysis

Maplebear disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Maplebear reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Maplebear Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CART	72 Outperform	$9.85B	23.59	14.92%	―	10.16%	18.29%
WINA	71 Outperform	$1.63B	40.37	―	3.35%	3.35%	1.97%
CHWY	63 Neutral	$11.38B	56.62	59.58%	―	9.80%	-46.84%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
W	55 Neutral	$9.98B	-31.45	―	―	3.35%	42.99%
ETSY	55 Neutral	$5.28B	40.44	―	―	1.98%	-20.98%
TDUP	51 Neutral	$610.69M	-15.68	-35.37%	―	-4.90%	50.77%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CART

Maplebear

37.51

-1.39

-3.57%

WINA

Winmark

456.24

142.39

45.37%

Wayfair

76.33

39.71

108.44%

ETSY

Etsy

54.88

5.83

11.89%

CHWY

Chewy

27.42

-8.48

-23.62%

TDUP

thredUP

4.88

2.65

118.83%

Maplebear Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes

Maplebear Appoints Chris Rogers as New Chair

Neutral

Nov 25, 2025

On November 21, 2025, Fidji Simo resigned as Chair and member of the Board of Maplebear Inc., following her resignation as CEO and President, to ensure a smooth leadership transition. Chris Rogers was appointed as the new Chair on November 24, 2025, and the Board size was reduced from ten to nine directors, as the company continues to operate from a position of strength and aims to redefine possibilities in the grocery industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (CART) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Maplebear stock, see the CART Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 19, 2026