Maplebear Inc. (CART)
NASDAQ:CART
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Maplebear
(NASDAQ:CART)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$46.00
▲(11.14% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
Score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, strong free cash flow, and very low leverage) and supportive guidance/sentiment from the latest earnings call. This is partially offset by weak technicals (price below key moving averages and negative MACD) and only mid-range valuation support at a ~22.7 P/E with no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Sustained free cash flow ($911M in 2025) and strong operating cash flow support durable capital allocation: funds growth investments, product development, buybacks, and provide a cushion versus cyclical earnings swings while enabling continued reinvestment.
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth Deceleration
A sharp slowdown in top-line growth (11% to 3%) reduces operating leverage and the pace at which scale can translate to margin expansion. Sustained deceleration would heighten pressure on re-investment tradeoffs and EBITDA-outpacing-GTV targets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Sustained free cash flow ($911M in 2025) and strong operating cash flow support durable capital allocation: funds growth investments, product development, buybacks, and provide a cushion versus cyclical earnings swings while enabling continued reinvestment.
Read all positive factors
Maplebear (CART) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.93B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.70M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.3
Beta (1Y)0.94
Revenue Growth10.16%
EPS Growth18.29%
CountryUS
Employees3,265
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.30
Shares Outstanding240,615,070
10 Day Avg. Volume3,591,856
30 Day Avg. Volume3,703,288
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio22.22
Price to Book (P/B)4.67
Price to Sales (P/S)3.14
P/FCF Ratio12.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.40
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.05
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$50.06Price Target Upside20.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering21
EPS Forecast (FY)2.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.16B
Maplebear Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Maplebear Inc., doing business as Instacart, provides online grocery shopping services to households in North America. The company connects the consumer with a personal shopper to shop and deliver a range of products, such as food, alcohol, consum...
How the Company Makes Money
Instacart generates revenue primarily from (1) transaction-related fees tied to orders placed on its platform and (2) advertising sold to CPG brands and, in some cases, retailers. Transaction revenue includes consumer-facing fees (such as delivery...
Maplebear Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Transaction Volume
Represents the total value of transactions processed, highlighting the scale of business operations and market reach.
Represents the total value of transactions processed, highlighting the scale of business operations and market reach.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMaplebear Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed clear momentum across marketplace, enterprise and advertising engines with strong Q4 operational metrics (GTV +14%, orders +16%), meaningful profitability expansion (adjusted EBITDA +20%) and aggressive capital returns. Management emphasized AI-driven productivity gains, enterprise expansions (380+ storefronts) and in-store monetization traction (Caper), while acknowledging one-time legal costs (including a $60M FTC settlement), incremental publisher payments that raised cost of revenue in 2025, and continued macro/advertiser uncertainty. Guidance for Q1 and commitment to adjusted EBITDA growth that outpaces GTV reinforce a constructive outlook despite some near-term margin moderation and early-stage initiatives.Positive Updates
Strong GTV and Order Growth
Q4 GTV of $9.85 billion, up 14% year-over-year (strongest GTV growth in 3 years); quarterly orders reached 89.5 million, up 16% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
GAAP Net Income Decline Due to Nonrecurring Charges
Q4 GAAP net income was $81 million, down 46% year-over-year, primarily driven by higher G&A related to nonrecurring legal and regulatory matters including a $60 million settlement with the FTC.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong GTV and Order Growth
Q4 GTV of $9.85 billion, up 14% year-over-year (strongest GTV growth in 3 years); quarterly orders reached 89.5 million, up 16% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Instacart guided Q1 FY2026 GTV of $10.25–$10.275 billion (implying 11–13% YoY growth), noting GTV should outpace orders growth as it laps last year’s $10 Instacart+ minimum; Q1 advertising and other revenue is expected to grow 11–14% YoY; and Q1 adjusted EBITDA is guided to $280–$290 million (up 15–19% YoY, but down sequentially due to advertising seasonality). For fiscal 2026 the company expects adjusted EBITDA to continue growing YoY at a pace that outpaces GTV growth, though the rate of EBITDA expansion will moderate as they reinvest and lap prior efficiency gains, and management expects payments‑to‑publishers growth to moderate. For context, Q4 2025 results included GTV $9.85B (+14% YoY), orders 89.5M (+16%), AOV −1%, transaction revenue +13% (7.1% of GTV), ads & other +10%, adjusted EBITDA $303M (+20%), operating cash flow $184M (+20%), ~$1B cash and $671M remaining buyback capacity after $1.4B repurchases in 2025.Maplebear Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
73
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.74B | 3.38B | 3.04B | 2.55B | 1.83B |
| Gross Profit | 2.75B | 2.54B | 2.28B | 1.83B | 1.23B |
| EBITDA | 655.00M | 556.00M | -2.08B | 109.00M | -59.00M |
| Net Income | 447.00M | 457.00M | -1.62B | 428.00M | -73.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.69B | 4.12B | 4.73B | 3.67B | 2.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 687.00M | 1.52B | 2.19B | 1.79B | 1.50B |
| Total Debt | 36.00M | 26.00M | 40.00M | 49.00M | 54.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.17B | 1.02B | 977.00M | 911.00M | 712.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.52B | 3.09B | 3.75B | 2.76B | 2.25B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 911.00M | 623.00M | 530.00M | 251.00M | -226.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 972.00M | 687.00M | 586.00M | 277.00M | -204.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -208.00M | -107.00M | 135.00M | 117.00M | -330.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.39B | -1.41B | -30.00M | 46.00M | 464.00M |
Maplebear Technical Analysis
Positive
41.39
Price Trends
37.51
Positive
39.86
Positive
41.59
Negative
Market Momentum
0.98
Negative
60.94
Neutral
87.51
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CART, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.85, above the 50-day MA of 37.51, and below the 200-day MA of 41.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CART.
Maplebear Risk Analysis
Maplebear disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Maplebear reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Maplebear Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $9.93B | 26.30 | 14.36% | ― | 10.16% | 18.29% | |
67 Neutral | $1.35B | 40.31 | ― | 3.35% | 3.35% | 1.97% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $11.32B | 52.77 | 51.43% | ― | 9.80% | -46.84% | |
55 Neutral | $5.57B | 33.41 | -15.36% | ― | 2.68% | -36.91% | |
54 Neutral | $10.06B | -41.81 | 11.30% | ― | 3.35% | 42.99% | |
53 Neutral | $538.64M | -38.47 | -34.47% | ― | -4.90% | 50.77% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CART
Maplebear
41.39
-0.40
-0.96%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.