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Maplebear (CART)
NASDAQ:CART
US Market
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Maplebear (CART) AI Stock Analysis

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CART

Maplebear

(NASDAQ:CART)

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Outperform 70 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$46.00
▲(20.48% Upside)
Maplebear's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, indicating robust growth potential. However, technical analysis suggests bearish momentum, and valuation metrics are moderate, which tempers the overall score.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Sustained growth in gross transaction value and order volume indicates strong demand and effective market penetration, supporting long-term revenue expansion.
Advertising Revenue
Growth in advertising revenue highlights the strength of the ads platform, providing a diversified and resilient revenue stream that enhances financial stability.
AI Integration
AI integration enhances operational efficiency and productivity, positioning the company for scalable growth and competitive advantage in logistics technology.
Negative Factors
Decrease in Average Order Value
A decline in average order value may pressure margins and revenue per transaction, potentially impacting profitability if not offset by volume growth.
Challenges with CPG Brand Spend
Reduced spending by major CPG brands could affect advertising revenue growth, highlighting vulnerability to macroeconomic factors and partner decisions.
Stock-Based Compensation Increase
Rising stock-based compensation increases operational costs, potentially diluting shareholder value and impacting net profitability if not managed effectively.

Maplebear (CART) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Maplebear Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMaplebear (CART) is a technology-driven logistics company specializing in on-demand delivery services. Operating primarily in the e-commerce sector, Maplebear focuses on providing fast and efficient delivery solutions for various products, including groceries, household items, and personal care products. The company leverages a network of local couriers and advanced routing algorithms to ensure timely deliveries, catering to both consumers and businesses seeking quick fulfillment options.
How the Company Makes MoneyMaplebear generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by charging delivery fees for its services. Customers pay a service charge for each order, which varies based on distance and delivery speed. Additionally, the company partners with local retailers and brands, offering them a platform to reach consumers through Maplebear's delivery network for a fee or commission on sales made through the platform. Subscription models for frequent users who wish to enjoy lower delivery fees or unlimited deliveries also contribute to the revenue. Moreover, advertising partnerships with brands looking to promote their products within the Maplebear app add an additional layer of income. Overall, the combination of delivery fees, commissions from retailers, subscription services, and advertising partnerships forms the core of Maplebear's revenue model.

Maplebear Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Gross Transaction Volume
Gross Transaction Volume
Represents the total value of transactions processed, highlighting the scale of business operations and market reach.
Chart InsightsMaplebear's Gross Transaction Volume has shown consistent growth, with a notable 10% year-over-year increase in the latest quarter, driven by a 14% rise in orders. Despite a decrease in average order value due to strategic changes, the company is leveraging AI and strategic acquisitions to enhance efficiency and market presence. Advertising revenue is outpacing GTV growth, indicating strong brand partnerships. While macroeconomic uncertainties pose risks, the company's robust cash position and strategic initiatives suggest resilience and potential for continued growth.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Maplebear Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Instacart exhibited strong growth across GTV, advertising revenue, and gross profit per order, supported by strategic investments in AI and technology. Despite some challenges with large CPG brand spending and a decrease in average order value, the company's overall financial health and continued enhancement of its platform suggest positive momentum.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Growth in Gross Transaction Value (GTV)
Instacart grew GTV by 11% year-over-year, driven by a 17% increase in orders.
Strong Advertising and Other Revenue Growth
Advertising and other revenue grew 12% year-over-year, demonstrating increased resiliency of the ads platform.
Record High Gross Profit Per Order
Gross profit per order grew to over $8 in Q2 due to focus on scale and efficiency.
Scaling of Instacart Ads Platform
The ads platform now exceeds $1 billion in annual run rate revenue, with active brand partners growing from over 4,000 to over 7,500.
AI Integration and Efficiency
More than 80% of code deployed in Q2 was AI-assisted, improving productivity and efficiency across operations.
Share Buybacks and Financial Health
Instacart has repurchased over $1.6 billion worth of shares and has approximately $1.7 billion in cash and similar assets.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Average Order Value
Average order value decreased by 5% year-over-year due to restaurant orders and a lower basket minimum for Instacart+ members.
Challenges with Large CPG Brand Spend
A large CPG brand pulled back on ad spend due to macro uncertainty, which could have impacted revenue growth if not offset by other partners.
Stock-Based Compensation Increase
Stock-based compensation rose to $105 million in Q2, up $39 million quarter-over-quarter.
Company Guidance
In the recent conference call, Instacart provided strong guidance for the future, highlighting several key metrics. The company reported an 11% year-over-year growth in gross transaction value (GTV) for Q2 2025, driven by a 17% increase in orders. The average order value decreased by 5% year-over-year, influenced by the inclusion of restaurant orders and the introduction of a lower basket minimum of $10 for Instacart+ members. Transaction revenue grew by 11% year-over-year, maintaining a consistent rate of 7.3% of GTV. Advertising and other revenue also rose by 12% year-over-year, demonstrating the resilience of Instacart's ads platform despite macroeconomic pressures. For Q3, Instacart projects GTV to range between $9 billion and $9.15 billion, reflecting an 8% to 10% growth, and anticipates adjusted EBITDA between $260 million and $270 million, showcasing the company's strategic growth and operational efficiency.

Maplebear Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Maplebear demonstrates strong financial performance with robust profitability and revenue growth. The balance sheet is solid with minimal leverage, and cash flow generation remains strong despite recent challenges. The company has effectively turned around from past financial difficulties.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Maplebear's income statement shows strong profitability with a gross profit margin of 74.8% and a net profit margin of 13.8% for the TTM. The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a 2.6% increase in the TTM period. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 15.3% and 17.9%, respectively, indicating efficient operations. The company has successfully turned around from previous losses, showcasing robust financial health.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.011, indicating minimal leverage. The return on equity is strong at 15.5%, suggesting effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 78.8%, highlighting a stable capital structure. However, past negative equity and ROE figures indicate previous financial instability, which has been addressed in recent periods.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a slight decline in free cash flow growth at -4.2% for the TTM, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 0.96, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also healthy at 0.93, reflecting efficient cash management. Despite the recent decline in free cash flow growth, the company has shown improvement from previous negative cash flow periods.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.55B3.38B3.04B2.55B1.83B1.48B
Gross Profit2.65B2.54B2.28B1.83B1.23B879.00M
EBITDA637.00M556.00M-2.08B109.00M-45.00M-50.00M
Net Income488.00M457.00M-1.62B428.00M-73.00M-70.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.43B4.12B4.73B3.67B2.96B2.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.72B1.52B2.19B1.71B1.49B1.43B
Total Debt37.00M26.00M40.00M49.00M54.00M51.00M
Total Liabilities942.00M1.02B800.00M911.00M712.00M520.00M
Stockholders Equity3.49B3.09B3.93B-64.00M-573.00M1.58B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow779.00M623.00M530.00M251.00M-226.00M-98.00M
Operating Cash Flow839.00M687.00M586.00M277.00M-204.00M-91.00M
Investing Cash Flow-263.00M-107.00M135.00M117.00M-330.00M301.00M
Financing Cash Flow-533.00M-1.41B-30.00M46.00M464.00M671.00M

Maplebear Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price38.18
Price Trends
50DMA
44.81
Negative
100DMA
45.54
Negative
200DMA
44.45
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.93
Positive
RSI
34.25
Neutral
STOCH
41.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CART, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 38.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.77, below the 50-day MA of 44.81, and below the 200-day MA of 44.45, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.93 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CART.

Maplebear Risk Analysis

Maplebear disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Maplebear reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Maplebear Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
$10.06B22.0414.54%10.47%
66
Neutral
$15.57B105.9034.48%9.04%-56.79%
63
Neutral
$1.16B-58.93%-10.39%14.92%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
61
Neutral
$1.82B45.62-118.80%2.19%0.98%1.84%
59
Neutral
$7.17B57.89-39.97%2.38%-38.88%
57
Neutral
$11.48B17.86%0.87%54.67%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CART
Maplebear
38.18
-3.77
-8.99%
WINA
Winmark
512.35
161.56
46.06%
W
Wayfair
88.53
32.21
57.19%
ETSY
Etsy
72.38
21.19
41.39%
CHWY
Chewy
37.53
9.51
33.94%
TDUP
thredUP
9.43
8.63
1078.75%

Maplebear Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Instacart Appoints New CEO and Board Member
Neutral
Aug 15, 2025

On August 15, 2025, Instacart announced the appointment of Josh Silverman, CEO of Etsy, to its Board of Directors, expanding the board to ten members. Silverman’s extensive experience in consumer technology and marketplaces is expected to enhance Instacart’s strategic direction and growth in the grocery technology sector. Concurrently, Chris Rogers assumed the roles of CEO and President, following Fidji Simo’s resignation from these positions, though she continues as Chair of the Board.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 20, 2025