Maplebear Inc. (CART)
NASDAQ:CART
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Maplebear
(NASDAQ:CART)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$50.00
▲(20.80% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/30/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (healthy margins, robust free cash flow, and very low leverage) and a positive earnings outlook with continued buybacks. These strengths are tempered by mixed technical momentum and a moderate valuation, plus ongoing risks around margin pressure, cash-flow variability, and the durability of profitability given past volatility.
Positive Factors
Low leverage / strong balance sheet
Extremely low leverage and a conservatively positioned balance sheet provide durable financial flexibility. This supports continued buybacks, a $500M revolver, and the ability to fund M&A or weather macro shocks without stressing liquidity, lowering bankruptcy and refinancing risk.
Negative Factors
Slowing revenue growth
A marked slowdown in top-line growth signals a maturing core marketplace and increases pressure to find new growth levers. Slower GTV/revenue growth can limit operating leverage gains, force heavier reliance on higher AOV, promotions, or ad monetization, and compress long-term scalability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low leverage / strong balance sheet
Extremely low leverage and a conservatively positioned balance sheet provide durable financial flexibility. This supports continued buybacks, a $500M revolver, and the ability to fund M&A or weather macro shocks without stressing liquidity, lowering bankruptcy and refinancing risk.
Read all positive factors
Maplebear Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Transaction Volume
Represents the total value of transactions processed, highlighting the scale of business operations and market reach.
Represents the total value of transactions processed, highlighting the scale of business operations and market reach.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMaplebear (CART) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.47B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.0
Beta (1Y)0.88
Revenue Growth11.84%
EPS Growth14.91%
CountryUS
Employees3,265
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.87
Shares Outstanding235,029,820
10 Day Avg. Volume4,641,877
30 Day Avg. Volume4,386,378
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio22.23
Price to Book (P/B)4.67
Price to Sales (P/S)3.14
P/FCF Ratio12.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.89
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.32
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.22
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$51.00Price Target Upside23.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)2.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.20B
Maplebear Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Maplebear Inc., known commercially as Instacart, delivers digital grocery and household item solutions to residences throughout North America. The service facilitates a connection between consumers and personal shoppers, who meticulously select an...
How the Company Makes Money
Instacart generates revenue mainly from three sources: (1) Transaction revenue tied to its marketplace operations, (2) Advertising and other revenue, and (3) Service revenue from retailer-facing technology products.
1) Transaction revenue (market...
Maplebear Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong top-line growth, milestone scale (GTV > $10B), robust advertising momentum (+16% YoY), improved profitability (net income +36%, adjusted EBITDA +23%), and strategic investments in enterprise, international expansion and AI. Management also announced sizable buybacks and maintained a constructive Q2 guide. Headwinds include modest gross margin pressure from increased publisher payments, a 10% YoY decline in free cash flow due to timing and settlements, and guidance that margin expansion will moderate in 2026. Overall, positive operational momentum and strategic positioning outweigh short-term margin and cashflow variability.Positive Updates
GTV and Revenue Milestones
GTV reached $10.29 billion, up 13% year-over-year, surpassing $10 billion for the first time; total revenue exceeded $1.02 billion, up 14% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Gross Profit Margin Compression
GAAP gross profit was $738 million (7.2% of GTV) down from 7.4% in Q1 2025, primarily due to increased payments to publishers as Carrot Ads and off-platform partnerships scale.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
GTV and Revenue Milestones
GTV reached $10.29 billion, up 13% year-over-year, surpassing $10 billion for the first time; total revenue exceeded $1.02 billion, up 14% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q2 GTV of $10.1–$10.25 billion (up 11%–13% YoY, with GTV expected to outpace orders), advertising & other revenue growth of 11%–14% YoY, and Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $290–$300 million (up ~11%–15% YoY). For the full year they expect adjusted EBITDA to grow faster than GTV while moderating the rate of expansion, to generate meaningful cash flow in 2026, and to return the majority of free cash flow via buybacks — having repurchased $349 million in Q1, adding $1 billion to the buyback authorization (≈$323 million remaining capacity), closing Q1 with about $880 million in cash, and establishing a $500 million unsecured revolver; management also reiterated long‑term ads targets of ~4%–5% of GTV and noted transaction revenue mix and payments to publishers may fluctuate or moderate in 2026.Maplebear Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.86B | 3.74B | 3.38B | 3.04B | 2.55B | 1.83B |
| Gross Profit | 2.82B | 2.76B | 2.54B | 2.28B | 1.83B | 1.23B |
| EBITDA | 708.00M | 655.00M | 619.00M | -2.00B | 118.00M | -45.00M |
| Net Income | 485.00M | 447.00M | 457.00M | -1.62B | 428.00M | -73.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.54B | 3.69B | 4.12B | 4.73B | 3.67B | 2.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 800.00M | 687.00M | 1.52B | 2.19B | 1.79B | 1.50B |
| Total Debt | 34.00M | 36.00M | 26.00M | 40.00M | 49.00M | 54.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 941.00M | 1.17B | 1.02B | 977.00M | 911.00M | 712.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.59B | 2.52B | 3.09B | 3.75B | 2.76B | 2.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 882.00M | 911.00M | 623.00M | 530.00M | 251.00M | -226.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 941.00M | 972.00M | 687.00M | 586.00M | 277.00M | -204.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -217.00M | -208.00M | -107.00M | 135.00M | 117.00M | -330.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.67B | -1.39B | -1.41B | -30.00M | 46.00M | 464.00M |
Maplebear Technical Analysis
Positive
41.39
Price Trends
41.36
Positive
39.20
Positive
40.37
Positive
Market Momentum
0.72
Negative
60.56
Neutral
73.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CART, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.52, above the 50-day MA of 41.36, and above the 200-day MA of 40.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CART.
Maplebear Risk Analysis
Maplebear disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Maplebear reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Maplebear Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $10.47B | 21.98 | 16.35% | ― | 11.84% | 14.91% | |
67 Neutral | $7.02B | 24.99 | -25.47% | ― | 1.78% | 75.71% | |
62 Neutral | $1.43B | 34.94 | -100.45% | 3.35% | 2.27% | -1.23% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $7.46B | 37.81 | 44.82% | ― | 6.14% | -32.48% | |
57 Neutral | $11.68B | -38.02 | 10.98% | ― | 6.80% | 18.24% | |
55 Neutral | $775.54M | -35.74 | -36.11% | ― | 10.25% | 70.25% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CART
Maplebear
44.55
0.69
1.57%
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Maplebear Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Maplebear Shareholders Approve Directors, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
May 29, 2026
On May 22, 2026, Maplebear Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, at which shareholders voted on board elections, auditor ratification and executive compensation matters, with each share of common stock entitled to one vote as of the A...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Maplebear Secures $500 Million Revolving Credit Facility
Positive
May 6, 2026
On May 1, 2026, Maplebear Inc. entered into an unsecured revolving credit agreement led by Morgan Stanley Senior Funding for a $500 million facility, with the potential to expand by more than $1 billion, to fund working capital and general corpora...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Maplebear Secures $500 Million Revolving Credit Facility
Positive
May 6, 2026
On May 1, 2026, Maplebear Inc. entered into an unsecured revolving credit agreement led by Morgan Stanley Senior Funding for a $500 million facility, with the potential to expand by more than $1 billion, to fund working capital and general corpora...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.