Jumia Technologies AG (JMIA) AI Stock Analysis

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Jumia Technologies AG

(NYSE:JMIA)

Rating:48Neutral

Price Target:

$3.00

▼(-1.64%Downside)

Jumia's overall stock score is 48, driven primarily by significant financial performance issues, including persistent losses and cash flow challenges. Technical analysis shows neutral indicators, while valuation concerns arise from a negative P/E ratio. The earnings call highlights cost management improvements but also ongoing revenue struggles, especially in Egypt, contributing to a cautious outlook.

Jumia Technologies AG (JMIA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$373.51M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)3.13M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)2.39

Revenue Growth-23.23%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees2,163

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength58

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.12

Shares Outstanding122,462,820

10 Day Avg. Volume2,664,379

30 Day Avg. Volume3,134,304

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-2.11

Price to Book (P/B)3.67

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-2.56

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.57

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.84

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.63

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.24

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$3.68

Price Target Upside20.66% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering2

Jumia Technologies AG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJumia Technologies AG is a leading pan-African e-commerce platform that connects buyers and sellers across multiple countries in Africa. The company operates in various sectors including online retail, logistics, and payment services. Jumia's core products and services include an online marketplace offering a wide range of products such as electronics, fashion, and home goods, as well as JumiaPay, a payment processing platform that facilitates transactions within its ecosystem.

How the Company Makes MoneyJumia Technologies AG primarily makes money through its online marketplace platform where it charges commissions to sellers for each successful transaction. Additionally, the company generates revenue from advertising services offered to vendors looking to increase their product visibility. Jumia also earns money through its logistics services by providing delivery solutions to sellers and buyers. Furthermore, JumiaPay plays a significant role in its revenue model by processing payments and charging transaction fees. Partnerships with third-party logistics providers and financial institutions enhance its service offerings and contribute to its earnings.

Jumia Technologies AG Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Quarterly Active Consumers

Quarterly Active Consumers
Tracks the number of unique consumers who made a purchase in a quarter, reflecting customer engagement and the platform's ability to attract and retain users.

Chart InsightsJumia's quarterly active consumers have been on a declining trend since 2023, reflecting challenges in maintaining user engagement. However, the recent earnings call highlights a 15% year-over-year growth in active customers ordering physical goods, suggesting a strategic shift towards enhancing customer engagement and order growth. Despite currency headwinds and a revenue decline, Jumia's focus on cost reduction and strategic expansions, such as increased international vendor growth and logistics services, could stabilize consumer numbers and drive future growth.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Jumia Technologies AG Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 27.08%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed picture. While there are clear improvements in cost management, customer engagement, and strategic expansions, challenges like revenue decline and significant losses in some markets, particularly Egypt, weigh on the outlook.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Improved Loss Projections

Loss before income tax guidance improved to $50 million to $55 million for 2025, down from previous guidance of $65 million to $70 million.

Physical Goods Orders Growth

Increased guidance for physical goods orders growth to 20% to 25%, up from 15% to 20%.

Cost Reduction Success

Fulfillment expense per order decreased to $2.1, a 14% reduction year-over-year.

Positive Customer Engagement

Quarterly active customers increased from 1.9 million in Q1'24 to 2.1 million in Q1'25, a 15% growth.

International Vendor Growth

International orders from Chinese vendors increased by 61% year-over-year.

Strategic Expansion

Expanding logistics services, such as Jumia Deliveries, to Nigeria after successful pilot in Ivory Coast.

Negative Updates

Decline in GMV

Overall GMV declined 11% year-over-year due to currency headwinds and lower corporate sales in Egypt.

Revenue Decline

Revenue for the quarter was $36.3 million, down 26% year-over-year and down 18% in constant currency.

Increased Loss in Adjusted EBITDA

Adjusted EBITDA loss was $15.7 million in Q1'25 compared to a loss of $4.3 million in Q1'24.

Challenges in Egypt

Physical goods orders in Egypt were down 15% year-over-year and GMV decreased 69% in USD.

Company Guidance

In the first quarter of 2025, Jumia provided updated guidance reflecting their strategic emphasis on reducing losses and enhancing financial efficiency. The company raised its full-year guidance, projecting a loss before income tax of $50 million to $55 million, an improvement from the previous range of $65 million to $70 million. For 2026, the anticipated loss before income tax is forecasted between $25 million to $30 million, with a target to achieve profitability on a loss before income tax basis by Q4 of 2026 and full-year profitability in 2027. Furthermore, Jumia increased its physical goods orders growth guidance to 20% to 25%, up from the prior 15% to 20%, driven by strong demand and strategic initiatives across logistics, fulfillment, technology, and general expenses. The company also reported a 15% year-over-year growth in quarterly active customers ordering physical goods, with a notable 21% increase in physical goods orders. Despite currency headwinds and a decline in corporate sales, particularly in Egypt, the company expected GMV to be between $795 million and $830 million in 2025, marking a 10% to 15% increase, excluding foreign exchange impacts.

Jumia Technologies AG Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Jumia Technologies AG faces significant financial challenges, with persistent net losses and negative cash flow trends. Despite a decent gross profit margin, the company struggles with ongoing losses, a declining revenue trend, and inadequate cash generation. These issues are exacerbated by a moderately leveraged balance sheet and declining equity.

Income Statement

Negative

Jumia's income statement reveals significant challenges, highlighted by persistent losses. The company's TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data shows a negative net profit margin of approximately -48.5% and a declining revenue trend, with a revenue decrease of about 7.5% from the previous annual report. Despite a consistent gross profit margin of around 57%, high operating losses reflected in negative EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate severe profitability issues.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

Jumia's balance sheet shows a moderately leveraged position with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.18. The equity ratio is around 39.4%, indicating a reliance on equity financing. However, the declining stockholders' equity over recent periods raises concerns about the company's ability to sustain its operations without additional capital.

Cash Flow

Negative

The cash flow statement highlights a worrying trend with negative operating and free cash flows, indicating that Jumia is not generating sufficient cash from its operations. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, reflecting cash flow challenges.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
154.85M	167.49M	186.40M	221.88M	177.93M	210.60M
	Gross Profit
88.25M	99.53M	107.10M	132.11M	110.55M	140.04M
	EBIT
-76.33M	-66.00M	-73.31M	-227.09M	-240.90M	-225.09M
	EBITDA
-94.67M	-85.63M	-85.98M	-191.25M	-213.36M	-167.92M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-75.15M	-99.09M	-104.16M	-237.84M	-226.79M	-242.78M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
110.70M	133.94M	120.57M	227.83M	512.80M	461.40M
	Total Assets
174.76M	192.07M	189.94M	330.07M	577.73M	536.86M
	Total Debt
12.33M	11.20M	12.15M	13.85M	12.54M	16.47M
	Net Debt
-49.31M	-44.16M	-23.33M	-58.28M	-104.55M	-443.44M
	Total Liabilities
106.44M	105.79M	121.22M	155.37M	165.14M	198.74M
	Stockholders Equity
68.83M	86.79M	69.23M	175.17M	413.04M	338.63M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-87.16M	-60.88M	-75.23M	-251.34M	-178.31M	―
	Operating Cash Flow
-82.86M	-57.20M	-72.98M	-240.18M	-171.12M	-148.53M
	Investing Cash Flow
23.82M	-10.40M	62.53M	212.82M	-404.81M	90.57M
	Financing Cash Flow
89.35M	89.46M	-7.41M	-8.76M	334.25M	282.26M

Jumia Technologies AG Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price3.05

Price Trends

50DMA

2.74

Positive

100DMA

2.90

Positive

200DMA

3.68

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.12

Positive

RSI

47.56

Neutral

STOCH

15.69

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JMIA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.25, above the 50-day MA of 2.74, and below the 200-day MA of 3.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.69 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JMIA.

Jumia Technologies AG Risk Analysis

Jumia Technologies AG disclosed 93 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Jumia Technologies AG reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Jumia Technologies AG Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CHWY	75 Outperform	$17.10B	46.67	76.24%	―	7.64%	369.79%
CPNG	74 Outperform	$51.02B	203.18	6.06%	―	20.88%	-80.08%
ETSY	68 Neutral	$5.84B	39.77	-39.97%	―	2.18%	-32.87%
HEPS	63 Neutral	$915.94M	―	-51.21%	―	22.41%	―
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.82B	11.05	2.80%	4.32%	2.67%	-24.92%
JMIA	48 Neutral	$373.51M	―	-134.38%	―	-23.23%	―
W	44 Neutral	$5.92B	―	17.86%	―	-0.89%	46.62%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JMIA

Jumia Technologies AG

3.05

-6.36

-67.59%

Wayfair

46.10

-7.19

-13.49%

ETSY

Etsy

55.99

-2.71

-4.62%

CHWY

Chewy

41.67

18.86

82.68%

CPNG

Coupang

28.10

7.56

36.81%

HEPS

D-Market

2.85

1.06

59.22%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.