Jumia Technologies AG (JMIA) AI Stock Analysis

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Jumia Technologies AG

(NYSE:JMIA)

Select Model

Neutral 45 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:45Neutral

Price Target:

$11.00

▼(-7.95% Downside)

Jumia Technologies AG's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, with ongoing losses and declining cash reserves being major concerns. While technical indicators show some neutral momentum, the valuation remains unattractive due to a negative P/E ratio. The company's strategic initiatives and growth in physical goods GMV provide some optimism, but profitability remains a distant goal.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The 25% increase in revenue reflects strong consumer demand and effective execution, indicating potential for sustained growth.

Operational Efficiency

Reduced fulfillment costs demonstrate improved operational efficiency, enhancing profitability prospects and competitive positioning.

Strategic Expansion

Expansion into secondary cities unlocks new growth opportunities, diversifying revenue streams and strengthening market presence.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Ongoing negative net profit margins highlight persistent profitability challenges, potentially impacting long-term financial health.

Cash Flow Issues

Declining cash reserves and negative free cash flow growth indicate potential liquidity issues, affecting operational sustainability.

Gross Profit Margin Decline

A declining gross profit margin suggests pressure on cost management, which could hinder profitability improvements over time.

Jumia Technologies AG (JMIA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.46B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)3.15M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)2.57

Revenue Growth-4.62%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees2,163

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength84

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.10

Shares Outstanding122,462,820

10 Day Avg. Volume3,181,706

30 Day Avg. Volume3,145,002

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.04

Price to Book (P/B)2.69

Price to Sales (P/S)1.40

P/FCF Ratio-3.84

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.00

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.00

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.00

Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.00

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$14.63

Price Target Upside22.43% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering4

EPS Forecast (FY)-0.35

Revenue Forecast (FY)$196.85M

Jumia Technologies AG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJumia Technologies AG operates an e-commerce platform in West Africa, North Africa, East and South Africa, Europe, the United Arab Emirates, and internationally. The company's platform consists of marketplace that connects sellers with consumers; logistics service that enables the shipment and delivery of packages from sellers to consumers; and payment service, which facilitates transactions to participants active on the company's platform in selected markets. Its marketplace offers various products in a range of categories, such as fashion and apparel, beauty and personal care, home and living, fast moving consumer goods, smartphones, and other electronics, as well as access to various services, including restaurant food delivery, airtime recharge, and utility bills payment services. The company was formerly known as Africa Internet Holding GmbH and changed its name to Jumia Technologies AG in January 2019. Jumia Technologies AG was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Berlin, Germany.

How the Company Makes MoneyJumia generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from its marketplace and logistics services. The marketplace segment earns money by charging sellers commissions on sales made through its platform, which can vary depending on the product category. Additionally, Jumia offers advertising services, allowing brands to promote their products directly on the platform for a fee. Jumia's logistics services, which include warehousing and delivery, also contribute to revenue as they charge merchants for these services. Furthermore, JumiaPay, its payment processing platform, generates income through transaction fees. Key partnerships with local and international brands enhance product offerings, driving sales and increasing overall revenue.

Jumia Technologies AG Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Total Payment Volume

Total Payment Volume
Measures the total value of payments processed through Jumia's platform, indicating the scale of transactions and the platform's growth in financial services.

Chart InsightsJumia's Total Payment Volume has faced volatility, with recent declines reflecting broader challenges. Despite a strategic focus on cost efficiency and customer growth, currency headwinds and a significant drop in corporate sales, especially in Egypt, have impacted performance. The company’s improved loss projections and increased physical goods orders guidance suggest a strategic pivot towards profitability, but persistent revenue declines and market-specific issues, such as those in Egypt, remain hurdles. Investors should watch for how these strategic shifts translate into financial recovery amid ongoing economic pressures.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Jumia Technologies AG Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 12, 2025

(Q3-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted strong growth in physical goods GMV, revenue, and operational efficiencies, particularly in expansion into secondary cities and international seller partnerships. However, challenges persist with declining gross profit margins and continued losses before income tax.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Growth in Physical Goods GMV

Physical goods GMV grew by 26% year-over-year in reported currency and 37% excluding corporate sales, reflecting strong consumer demand and order growth.

Revenue Increase

Revenue reached $45.6 million, up 25% year-over-year, driven by a combination of strong consumer demand and ongoing execution.

Improved Fulfillment Costs

Fulfillment cost per order decreased 22% year-over-year to $1.86, demonstrating structural efficiencies across the logistics network.

Significant Growth in Ghana

Ghana delivered outstanding performance with physical goods orders up 94% year-over-year and physical goods GMV increasing 157% in reported currency.

International Seller Partnerships

Sourced 3.4 million items from international sellers, representing a 52% year-over-year increase, enhancing product selection and competitive pricing.

Expansion into Secondary Cities

Orders from upcountry regions represented 60% of total volumes, up from 54% last year, unlocking growth opportunities beyond major urban centers.

Negative Updates

Gross Profit Margin Decline

Gross profit margin as a percentage of GMV was 12%, down from 14% in Q3 2024, primarily due to reduced corporate sales in Egypt.

Loss Before Income Tax

Loss before income tax was $17.7 million, a 1% decrease year-over-year, reflecting ongoing financial challenges despite operational improvements.

Decline in Marketing and Advertising Revenue

Marketing and advertising revenue totaled $1.3 million, down 24% year-over-year, indicating reduced spending from large sellers.

Company Guidance

During the third quarter of 2025, Jumia provided updated guidance and metrics reflecting significant growth and strategic progress. The company reported a 22% year-over-year increase in quarterly active customers and a notable rise in customer loyalty, evidenced by an NPS score improvement from 63 to 64. Physical goods GMV saw a 26% year-over-year increase, or 37% when excluding corporate sales, demonstrating strong customer demand and operational execution. The average order value decreased to $35 from $38, attributed to reduced corporate sales in Egypt. Jumia's revenue increased by 25% year-over-year, reaching $45.6 million, with advertising revenue constituting 1% of GMV. The company is focused on maintaining its strategic goal of achieving full-year profitability by 2027. To support this, Jumia has reduced fulfillment costs by 22% year-over-year and improved adjusted EBITDA loss to $14 million from $17 million. The call also highlighted strong country-specific performances, with Nigeria's physical goods orders up 30% and Ghana's GMV increasing by 157%. The company's focus on expanding into secondary cities and improving international seller partnerships, particularly with Chinese suppliers, is expected to drive sustained growth and competitive advantage.

Jumia Technologies AG Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Jumia Technologies AG faces significant financial challenges. Despite a strong gross profit margin, the company struggles with profitability and cash flow generation. The balance sheet shows manageable leverage but poor returns on equity. The cash flow statement highlights declining cash reserves, posing risks if not addressed.

Income Statement

Neutral

Jumia Technologies AG shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has a positive gross profit margin of 55.2% TTM, indicating efficient cost management relative to revenue. However, the net profit margin is negative at -42.5% TTM, reflecting ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. Revenue growth is modest at 5.61% TTM, suggesting some improvement but not enough to offset losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain negative, highlighting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The balance sheet of Jumia Technologies AG reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.24 TTM, indicating manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is significantly negative at -89.4% TTM, suggesting that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholder investments. The equity ratio stands at 24.6% TTM, showing a reasonable level of equity financing but also indicating potential risks if asset values decline.

Cash Flow

Negative

Jumia Technologies AG's cash flow statement indicates challenges in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative at -0.89 TTM, reflecting insufficient cash flow to cover net losses. Free cash flow growth is negative at -15.2% TTM, highlighting declining cash reserves. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly positive at 1.05 TTM, suggesting some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	173.22M	167.49M	186.40M	203.30M	167.62M	195.44M
Gross Profit	91.50M	99.53M	107.10M	118.17M	101.47M	132.26M
EBITDA	-87.62M	-86.39M	-86.59M	-192.80M	-195.86M	-208.32M
Net Income	-70.77M	-99.09M	-104.16M	-238.23M	-226.87M	-225.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	144.26M	192.07M	189.94M	330.22M	578.11M	436.50M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	82.53M	133.94M	120.57M	227.43M	512.80M	375.15M
Total Debt	12.53M	11.20M	12.15M	13.85M	12.54M	13.39M
Total Liabilities	109.32M	105.79M	121.22M	155.97M	165.53M	161.60M
Stockholders Equity	35.48M	86.79M	69.23M	174.72M	413.04M	275.34M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-77.59M	-60.88M	-75.23M	-251.32M	-178.31M	-115.26M
Operating Cash Flow	-72.73M	-57.20M	-72.98M	-240.18M	-171.12M	-112.39M
Investing Cash Flow	76.51M	-10.40M	62.53M	212.25M	-404.81M	66.95M
Financing Cash Flow	-8.26M	89.46M	-7.41M	-8.76M	334.25M	225.04M

Jumia Technologies AG Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price11.95

Price Trends

50DMA

11.40

Positive

100DMA

10.57

Positive

200DMA

6.89

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.36

Positive

RSI

49.17

Neutral

STOCH

54.34

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JMIA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.35, above the 50-day MA of 11.40, and above the 200-day MA of 6.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JMIA.

Jumia Technologies AG Risk Analysis

Jumia Technologies AG disclosed 93 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Jumia Technologies AG reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Jumia Technologies AG Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CART	79 Outperform	$12.04B	25.18	15.33%	―	10.16%	18.29%
MNSO	72 Outperform	$5.92B	20.26	20.83%	3.10%	13.37%	-19.37%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
CPNG	60 Neutral	$44.33B	114.86	8.73%	―	16.63%	-62.54%
ETSY	57 Neutral	$5.50B	38.98	―	―	1.98%	-20.98%
TDUP	55 Neutral	$779.64M	-20.01	-35.37%	―	-4.90%	50.77%
JMIA	45 Neutral	$1.46B	-11.70	-102.27%	―	-4.62%	―

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JMIA

Jumia Technologies AG

11.95

8.03

204.85%

ETSY

Etsy

55.75

1.92

3.57%

MNSO

MINISO Group Holding

19.63

-3.51

-15.17%

CPNG

Coupang

24.27

2.05

9.23%

TDUP

thredUP

6.23

4.77

326.71%

CART

Maplebear

45.85

3.78

8.99%

Jumia Technologies AG Corporate Events

Jumia Technologies AG Reports Strong Q3 2025 Growth with 25% Revenue Increase

Nov 12, 2025

On November 12, 2025, Jumia Technologies AG announced its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. The company reported a 25% increase in revenue and a 21% growth in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) compared to the same period in 2024. Jumia also highlighted a significant increase in orders and active customers, demonstrating strong market demand and consumer trust. The company has made strides in operational efficiency, reducing its operating loss by 13% year-over-year. Jumia’s strategic focus on execution and customer engagement is positioning it for sustainable growth, with expectations to reach breakeven in Q4 2026 and full-year profitability by 2027.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 26, 2025