Jumia Technologies AG (JMIA)
NYSE:JMIA
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Jumia Technologies AG
(NYSE:JMIA)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▼(-2.55% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/12/26
The score is constrained mainly by weak financial performance—ongoing losses, persistent cash burn, and equity erosion—despite low leverage. The latest earnings call improves the outlook with strong GMV momentum and a clearer path toward breakeven and positive cash flow by late 2026, but near-term losses and execution risks remain. Technical indicators are mixed-to-weak, and valuation cannot be meaningfully supported due to missing P/E and dividend yield.
Positive Factors
GMV and Revenue Growth
Sustained double‑digit GMV and revenue growth through Q4 2025 indicates expanding customer adoption and deeper market penetration across core African markets. Durable GMV expansion supports network effects (more sellers, assortment and frequency), enabling scale benefits that can improve long‑term take rates and seller economics.
Negative Factors
Persistent Negative Cash Flow
Consistent negative operating and free cash flows create a structural funding requirement; even with reduced burn, deteriorating FCF in 2025 elevates refinancing risk. Ongoing cash consumption constrains discretionary investment, limits margin improvement initiatives, and could necessitate dilutive or costly financing if progress stalls.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
GMV and Revenue Growth
Sustained double‑digit GMV and revenue growth through Q4 2025 indicates expanding customer adoption and deeper market penetration across core African markets. Durable GMV expansion supports network effects (more sellers, assortment and frequency), enabling scale benefits that can improve long‑term take rates and seller economics.
Read all positive factors
Jumia Technologies AG (JMIA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$826.10M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.56M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.89
Revenue Growth-4.62%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees2,163
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.10
Shares Outstanding122,462,820
10 Day Avg. Volume1,266,654
30 Day Avg. Volume1,562,150
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.34
Price to Book (P/B)29.11
Price to Sales (P/S)4.05
P/FCF Ratio-14.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.42
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-7.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.50Price Target Upside132.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)$238.32M
Jumia Technologies AG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Jumia Technologies AG operates an e-commerce platform in West Africa, North Africa, East and South Africa, Europe, the United Arab Emirates, and internationally. The company's platform consists of marketplace that connects sellers with consumers; ...
How the Company Makes Money
Jumia primarily makes money from services tied to transactions on its platform rather than only from selling goods.
Key revenue streams include:
1) Marketplace revenue (commissions and seller services): Jumia earns fees from third-party sellers f...
Jumia Technologies AG Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Payment Volume
Measures the total value of payments processed through Jumia's platform, indicating the scale of transactions and the platform's growth in financial services.
Measures the total value of payments processed through Jumia's platform, indicating the scale of transactions and the platform's growth in financial services.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyJumia Technologies AG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented materially positive operational momentum: strong GMV and customer growth, improved unit economics and clear targets to reach adjusted EBITDA breakeven in Q4 2026 and full-year profitability in 2027. Management highlighted multiple efficiency gains (fulfillment unit cost, headcount reductions, lower tech spend) and country-level breakout performances (notably Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana). Remaining concerns include advertising monetization that lagged expectations, elevated sales & marketing expense, short-term one-time costs from the Algeria exit, regulatory/tax developments in some markets, and a projected full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss (negative USD 25–30M) before the targeted Q4 breakeven. On balance, the positives around growth, improving margins and a credible path to profitability outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong GMV and Orders Growth
Physical goods GMV grew 38% year-over-year (adjusted for perimeter effects) and physical goods orders grew 32% year-over-year (adjusted for perimeter effects), with growth accelerating through Q4 including seasonal uplift from Black Friday.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Still Negative and 2026 Loss Runway
Adjusted EBITDA remained negative at USD 7.3M for the quarter and management projects negative USD 25M to USD 30M for full-year 2026 before achieving the targeted Q4 '26 breakeven.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong GMV and Orders Growth
Physical goods GMV grew 38% year-over-year (adjusted for perimeter effects) and physical goods orders grew 32% year-over-year (adjusted for perimeter effects), with growth accelerating through Q4 including seasonal uplift from Black Friday.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Jumia guided to full‑year 2026 GMV growth of 27–32% year‑over‑year (adjusted for perimeter) and expects adjusted EBITDA to be a loss of $25–30 million, while targeting adjusted EBITDA breakeven and positive cash flow in Q4 2026 and full‑year profitability and positive cash flow in 2027; Q1 2026 GMV is also projected to grow 27–32% y/y (adj.) with higher cash outflows in Q1 due to seasonality and annual tech/insurance renewals, the company reiterated it does not assume FX improvement in the outlook, flagged one‑time Algeria exit costs (Algeria ≈2% of 2025 GMV), and said existing liquidity of $77.8 million (including $76.7M cash) is sufficient to reach profitability without raising capital—building on recent progress such as Q4 ’25 adjusted EBITDA loss of $7.3M, quarterly cash burn of $4.7M (vs $15.8M in Q3 ’25), and Q4 ’25 GMV and orders momentum.Jumia Technologies AG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 188.88M | 167.49M | 186.40M | 203.30M | 167.62M |
| Gross Profit | 99.69M | 99.53M | 107.10M | 118.17M | 101.47M |
| EBITDA | -46.08M | -86.39M | -86.59M | -192.80M | -195.86M |
| Net Income | -61.53M | -99.09M | -104.16M | -238.23M | -226.87M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 133.55M | 192.07M | 189.94M | 330.22M | 578.11M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 77.83M | 133.94M | 120.57M | 227.43M | 512.80M |
| Total Debt | 11.72M | 11.20M | 12.15M | 13.85M | 12.54M |
| Total Liabilities | 107.82M | 105.79M | 121.22M | 155.97M | 165.53M |
| Stockholders Equity | 26.27M | 86.79M | 69.23M | 174.72M | 413.04M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -52.59M | -60.88M | -75.23M | -251.32M | -178.31M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -47.92M | -57.20M | -72.98M | -240.18M | -171.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 75.64M | -10.40M | 62.53M | 212.25M | -404.81M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.44M | 89.46M | -7.41M | -8.76M | 334.25M |
Jumia Technologies AG Technical Analysis
Negative
6.67
Price Trends
9.53
Negative
10.75
Negative
9.26
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.73
Negative
31.91
Neutral
29.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JMIA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.34, below the 50-day MA of 9.53, and below the 200-day MA of 9.26, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.73 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 31.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JMIA.
Jumia Technologies AG Risk Analysis
Jumia Technologies AG disclosed 90 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Jumia Technologies AG reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Our reliance on standardized contracts compounds risks if provisions are held void. Q4, 2025
Jumia Technologies AG Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $8.59B | 26.30 | 14.36% | ― | 10.16% | 18.29% | |
69 Neutral | $5.03B | 28.32 | 25.85% | 3.10% | 13.37% | -19.37% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $4.55B | 33.41 | -15.36% | ― | 1.98% | -20.98% | |
53 Neutral | $33.07B | 206.19 | 4.52% | ― | 16.63% | -62.54% | |
53 Neutral | $403.98M | -36.04 | -34.47% | ― | -4.90% | 50.77% | |
50 Neutral | $826.10M | -12.43 | -133.66% | ― | -4.62% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
JMIA
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Jumia Technologies AG Corporate Events
Jumia Files 2025 Annual Report on Form 20-F with U.S. SEC
Feb 24, 2026
Jumia Technologies AG, the leading pan-African e-commerce platform operating across eight African countries, runs a marketplace linking over 70,000 sellers with customers, supported by a proprietary logistics network and integrated payment gateway...
Jumia Posts Strong Q4 2025 Growth and Sharply Lower Cash Burn
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, Jumia Technologies AG reported its unaudited fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting a sharp acceleration in growth and a marked improvement in cash discipline. Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue rose 34% year-over-y...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.