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Revolve Group (RVLV)
NYSE:RVLV
US Market

Revolve Group (RVLV) AI Stock Analysis

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Revolve Group

(NYSE:RVLV)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$24.00
▲(13.37%Upside)
Revolve Group receives a strong overall score driven by its solid financial performance and impressive earnings call results, highlighting growth in sales and strategic investments in technology and international expansion. While technical analysis shows a positive trend, valuation concerns due to a high P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield temper the enthusiasm.
Positive Factors
Cost Efficiencies
EBITDA of $19.3mm was ahead of expectations due to expense savings and efficiencies within Selling & Distribution and Marketing.
Customer Growth
The company is coming off a first quarter that saw an acceleration in active customer growth.
Price Target
The price target for Revolve Group has been increased to $27.00 from a previous target of $21.00.
Negative Factors
Import Exposure
The company has mid-teens direct import exposure to China, which remains a risk due to high tariffs.
Revenue Slowdown
Revolve's internal revenue projections are being revised downwards due to a notable slowdown in customer purchases.
Tariff Impact
The company reduced its gross margin guidance due to the impact of tariffs, which could significantly erode margins.

Revolve Group (RVLV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Revolve Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRevolve Group (RVLV) is a leading online fashion retailer that primarily targets millennial and Gen Z consumers. Based in the United States, the company offers a curated selection of apparel, footwear, accessories, and beauty products from a wide array of established and emerging brands. Revolve is known for its trend-focused offerings and innovative digital marketing strategies, including influencer partnerships and social media engagement, which resonate strongly with its target demographic.
How the Company Makes MoneyRevolve Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of its fashion and lifestyle products via its e-commerce platforms. The company's key revenue stream is direct-to-consumer sales, facilitated by its proprietary technology and data-driven approach to inventory management and customer engagement. Revolve leverages social media and influencer collaborations to enhance brand visibility and drive traffic to its online stores. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships with a variety of brands, allowing it to offer exclusive or limited-edition items that attract and retain customers. Revolve's business model emphasizes efficient inventory turnover and a high level of customer service, contributing to strong repeat purchase rates and customer loyalty.

Revolve Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Total Active Customers
Total Active Customers
Measures the number of customers who have made a purchase within a specific period, showing customer engagement and the potential for repeat business.
Chart InsightsRevolve Group's total active customers have shown consistent growth since 2021, reflecting successful customer acquisition strategies. The recent earnings call highlights a 14% increase in Q4 net sales, driven by strong international demand and operational efficiencies. Despite challenges in the luxury segment and temporary sales impacts from wildfires, Revolve's focus on AI technology and brand expansion positions it well for continued growth. The company's strategic priorities and improved margins suggest resilience and potential for further customer base expansion.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Revolve Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 11.77%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Revolve reported strong financial results with significant growth in net sales and operating cash flow. The company successfully executed marketing initiatives and improved inventory dynamics while continuing to invest in technology and AI. However, they face tariff challenges and macroeconomic uncertainties, impacting average order values and consumer sentiment. Despite these challenges, Revolve remains confident in its long-term strategies.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong First Quarter Financial Performance
Revolve reported a 10% year-over-year increase in net sales, with domestic net sales up 9% and international net sales up 12%. Operating income grew by 57% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA increased by 45%.
Increased Operating Cash Flow
The company generated $45 million in operating cash flow during the first quarter, increasing their cash position by $44 million, with cash and cash equivalents exceeding $300 million.
Successful Marketing Initiatives
REVOLVE Festival in Coachella Valley led to a 40% increase in press impressions and a 25% increase in social media impressions year-over-year with reduced spending.
Improved Inventory Dynamics
Inventory decreased by 7% compared to year-end 2024, with the net sales growth outpacing inventory growth. The mix of owned brand net sales as a percentage of REVOLVE segment net sales increased year-over-year for the first time in 2.5 years.
Continued Investment in Technology and AI
Revolve is leveraging AI for customer service improvement and product discovery, including AI algorithms for call transcriptions and a new AI-powered styling feature.
Negative Updates
Tariff and Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Revolve faces challenges due to significant and broad-based tariffs, especially with 16% of inventory imported directly from China. The macro environment is uncertain with geopolitical issues.
Decrease in Average Order Value
Average order value decreased by 1% year-over-year, primarily due to a lower AOV in the FWRD segment driven by product mix.
Impact of Consumer Sentiment
U.S. consumer confidence has declined every month in 2025, reaching a 5-year low, affecting the company's internal revenue growth expectations.
Challenges in Canada
Weakness in the Canadian market due to boycotts of U.S. retailers in response to U.S. policy, impacting sales.
Company Guidance
During Revolve's First Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call, the company provided detailed guidance highlighting several key metrics. Revolve reported a 10% year-over-year increase in net sales, with domestic sales up 9% and international sales up 12%. The company's operating income rose by 57%, and adjusted EBITDA saw a 45% increase. They also achieved a significant milestone with $45 million in operating cash flow and cash and cash equivalents exceeding $300 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 160 basis points. Despite macroeconomic challenges, such as geopolitical uncertainties and tariffs, Revolve emphasized ongoing investments in AI technology, international expansion, and brand building. The company noted a decrease in product return rates by nearly 3 points year-over-year, contributing to operational efficiencies. Revolve maintains a strategic focus on expanding owned brands, with owned brand net sales increasing as a percentage of REVOLVE segment net sales for the first time in 2.5 years. Additionally, the company is advancing its physical retail strategy with a new store at The Grove in Los Angeles, slated to open in the fall. Despite a challenging environment, Revolve remains optimistic about its long-term growth opportunities.

Revolve Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Revolve Group presents a solid financial profile with strong profitability, low leverage, and effective cash flow management. The company maintains healthy margins and a strong equity base, minimizing financial risk. However, slower revenue growth and pressure on net profit margins could pose challenges.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Revolve Group shows a strong gross profit margin of approximately 52.4% for the TTM, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin is healthy at around 4.4%, although down from previous years, suggesting some pressure on profitability. Revenue growth has been steady, with a TTM growth rate of approximately 2.3%, indicating a positive trajectory, albeit slower than in earlier years. The EBIT and EBITDA margins demonstrate stable operational efficiency, aligning with industry standards.
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with an equity ratio of approximately 63.6%, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at about 0.10, demonstrating conservative leverage. Return on equity is solid at approximately 11.1% for the TTM, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. These factors indicate a robust financial position with low financial risk.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
The cash flow statement shows a positive free cash flow growth rate of approximately 27.4% for the TTM, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio stands at approximately 0.66, suggesting a moderate cash conversion efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly higher at around 0.53, indicating a stable cash flow relative to earnings.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.16B1.13B1.07B1.10B891.39M580.65M
Gross Profit
606.06M593.27M554.20M592.32M489.82M305.28M
EBIT
56.78M51.42M22.13M73.14M105.29M61.07M
EBITDA
60.69M56.58M27.53M77.93M109.80M65.89M
Net Income Common Stockholders
50.50M49.56M28.15M58.70M99.84M56.79M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
300.83M256.60M245.45M234.72M218.46M146.01M
Total Assets
713.90M665.55M608.89M579.32M480.41M305.75M
Total Debt
44.57M40.73M40.99M24.50M6.94M0.00
Net Debt
-256.26M-215.87M-204.46M-210.22M-211.51M-146.01M
Total Liabilities
260.53M227.76M223.75M199.75M163.40M105.69M
Stockholders Equity
454.19M438.19M385.14M379.57M317.01M200.06M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
26.82M21.04M39.14M18.27M60.12M71.45M
Operating Cash Flow
33.45M26.69M43.34M23.44M62.31M73.77M
Investing Cash Flow
-9.72M-9.11M-4.20M-5.17M-2.19M-2.32M
Financing Cash Flow
2.37M-5.36M-30.38M887.00K12.77M8.66M

Revolve Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price21.17
Price Trends
50DMA
20.19
Positive
100DMA
23.69
Negative
200DMA
26.38
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.49
Negative
RSI
52.26
Neutral
STOCH
59.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RVLV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.85, above the 50-day MA of 20.19, and below the 200-day MA of 26.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RVLV.

Revolve Group Risk Analysis

Revolve Group disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Revolve Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Revolve Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$5.79B17.0824.98%3.49%9.80%-6.33%
78
Outperform
$7.75B7.8319.00%3.19%-5.90%-11.16%
76
Outperform
$1.56B31.0411.97%9.09%106.50%
ASASO
75
Outperform
$2.97B8.2220.14%1.17%-3.57%-17.43%
68
Neutral
$6.45B43.92-39.97%2.18%-32.87%
63
Neutral
$6.98B11.412.80%4.24%2.68%-24.94%
WW
44
Neutral
$6.18B17.86%-0.89%46.62%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
RVLV
Revolve Group
21.17
3.10
17.16%
VIPS
Vipshop
15.00
-0.59
-3.78%
W
Wayfair
47.96
-11.49
-19.33%
ETSY
Etsy
60.20
-3.07
-4.85%
ASO
Academy Sports and Outdoors
45.22
-7.23
-13.78%
MNSO
MINISO Group Holding
18.60
-2.52
-11.93%

Revolve Group Corporate Events

Shareholder Meetings
Revolve Group Holds 2025 Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
Jun 9, 2025

On June 6, 2025, Revolve Group held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders where three proposals were presented. The stockholders elected directors to the board, ratified KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, and approved the compensation of the company’s named executive officers on a non-binding advisory basis.

The most recent analyst rating on (RVLV) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Revolve Group stock, see the RVLV Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.