Revolve Group (RVLV) AI Stock Analysis

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Revolve Group

(NYSE:RVLV)

Rating:76Outperform

Price Target:

$24.00

▲(14.50%Upside)

Revolve Group receives a strong overall score driven by its solid financial performance and impressive earnings call results, highlighting growth in sales and strategic investments in technology and international expansion. While technical analysis shows a positive trend, valuation concerns due to a high P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield temper the enthusiasm.

Positive Factors

Cost Efficiencies

EBITDA of $19.3mm was ahead of expectations due to expense savings and efficiencies within Selling & Distribution and Marketing.

Customer Growth

The company is coming off a first quarter that saw an acceleration in active customer growth.

Price Target

The price target for Revolve Group has been increased to $27.00 from a previous target of $21.00.

Negative Factors

Import Exposure

The company has mid-teens direct import exposure to China, which remains a risk due to high tariffs.

Revenue Slowdown

Revolve's internal revenue projections are being revised downwards due to a notable slowdown in customer purchases.

Tariff Impact

The company reduced its gross margin guidance due to the impact of tariffs, which could significantly erode margins.

Revolve Group (RVLV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.51B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.65M

Price to Earnings (P/E)29.8

Beta (1Y)2.02

Revenue Growth9.09%

EPS Growth106.50%

CountryUS

Employees1,632

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength57

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.16

Shares Outstanding40,370,308

10 Day Avg. Volume1,433,132

30 Day Avg. Volume1,654,162

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.66

Price to Book (P/B)4.30

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio89.33

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.65

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.22

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.63

Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.07

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$22.77

Price Target Upside8.64% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering15

Revolve Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRevolve Group, Inc. operates as an online fashion retailer for consumers in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, REVOLVE and FWRD. It operates a platform that connects consumers and global fashion influencers, as well as emerging, established, and owned brands. The company offers women's apparel, footwear, accessories, and beauty styles under established and emerging brands, as well as owned brands. It also provides various luxury brands. The company was formerly known as Advance Holdings, LLC and changed its name to Revolve Group, Inc. in October 2018. Revolve Group, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Cerritos, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyRevolve Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of its fashion and lifestyle products via its e-commerce platforms. The company's key revenue stream is direct-to-consumer sales, facilitated by its proprietary technology and data-driven approach to inventory management and customer engagement. Revolve leverages social media and influencer collaborations to enhance brand visibility and drive traffic to its online stores. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships with a variety of brands, allowing it to offer exclusive or limited-edition items that attract and retain customers. Revolve's business model emphasizes efficient inventory turnover and a high level of customer service, contributing to strong repeat purchase rates and customer loyalty.

Revolve Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Total Active Customers

Total Active Customers
Measures the number of customers who have made a purchase within a specific period, showing customer engagement and the potential for repeat business.

Chart InsightsRevolve Group's total active customers have shown consistent growth since 2021, reflecting successful customer acquisition strategies. The recent earnings call highlights a 14% increase in Q4 net sales, driven by strong international demand and operational efficiencies. Despite challenges in the luxury segment and temporary sales impacts from wildfires, Revolve's focus on AI technology and brand expansion positions it well for continued growth. The company's strategic priorities and improved margins suggest resilience and potential for further customer base expansion.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Revolve Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 10.67%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Revolve reported strong financial results with significant growth in net sales and operating cash flow. The company successfully executed marketing initiatives and improved inventory dynamics while continuing to invest in technology and AI. However, they face tariff challenges and macroeconomic uncertainties, impacting average order values and consumer sentiment. Despite these challenges, Revolve remains confident in its long-term strategies.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong First Quarter Financial Performance

Revolve reported a 10% year-over-year increase in net sales, with domestic net sales up 9% and international net sales up 12%. Operating income grew by 57% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA increased by 45%.

Increased Operating Cash Flow

The company generated $45 million in operating cash flow during the first quarter, increasing their cash position by $44 million, with cash and cash equivalents exceeding $300 million.

Successful Marketing Initiatives

REVOLVE Festival in Coachella Valley led to a 40% increase in press impressions and a 25% increase in social media impressions year-over-year with reduced spending.

Improved Inventory Dynamics

Inventory decreased by 7% compared to year-end 2024, with the net sales growth outpacing inventory growth. The mix of owned brand net sales as a percentage of REVOLVE segment net sales increased year-over-year for the first time in 2.5 years.

Continued Investment in Technology and AI

Revolve is leveraging AI for customer service improvement and product discovery, including AI algorithms for call transcriptions and a new AI-powered styling feature.

Negative Updates

Tariff and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Revolve faces challenges due to significant and broad-based tariffs, especially with 16% of inventory imported directly from China. The macro environment is uncertain with geopolitical issues.

Decrease in Average Order Value

Average order value decreased by 1% year-over-year, primarily due to a lower AOV in the FWRD segment driven by product mix.

Impact of Consumer Sentiment

U.S. consumer confidence has declined every month in 2025, reaching a 5-year low, affecting the company's internal revenue growth expectations.

Challenges in Canada

Weakness in the Canadian market due to boycotts of U.S. retailers in response to U.S. policy, impacting sales.

Company Guidance

During Revolve's First Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call, the company provided detailed guidance highlighting several key metrics. Revolve reported a 10% year-over-year increase in net sales, with domestic sales up 9% and international sales up 12%. The company's operating income rose by 57%, and adjusted EBITDA saw a 45% increase. They also achieved a significant milestone with $45 million in operating cash flow and cash and cash equivalents exceeding $300 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 160 basis points. Despite macroeconomic challenges, such as geopolitical uncertainties and tariffs, Revolve emphasized ongoing investments in AI technology, international expansion, and brand building. The company noted a decrease in product return rates by nearly 3 points year-over-year, contributing to operational efficiencies. Revolve maintains a strategic focus on expanding owned brands, with owned brand net sales increasing as a percentage of REVOLVE segment net sales for the first time in 2.5 years. Additionally, the company is advancing its physical retail strategy with a new store at The Grove in Los Angeles, slated to open in the fall. Despite a challenging environment, Revolve remains optimistic about its long-term growth opportunities.

Revolve Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revolve Group presents a solid financial profile with strong profitability, low leverage, and effective cash flow management. The company maintains healthy margins and a strong equity base, minimizing financial risk. However, slower revenue growth and pressure on net profit margins could pose challenges.

Income Statement

Positive

Revolve Group shows a strong gross profit margin of approximately 52.4% for the TTM, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin is healthy at around 4.4%, although down from previous years, suggesting some pressure on profitability. Revenue growth has been steady, with a TTM growth rate of approximately 2.3%, indicating a positive trajectory, albeit slower than in earlier years. The EBIT and EBITDA margins demonstrate stable operational efficiency, aligning with industry standards.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with an equity ratio of approximately 63.6%, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at about 0.10, demonstrating conservative leverage. Return on equity is solid at approximately 11.1% for the TTM, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. These factors indicate a robust financial position with low financial risk.

Cash Flow

Positive

The cash flow statement shows a positive free cash flow growth rate of approximately 27.4% for the TTM, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio stands at approximately 0.66, suggesting a moderate cash conversion efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly higher at around 0.53, indicating a stable cash flow relative to earnings.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.16B	1.13B	1.07B	1.10B	891.39M	580.65M
	Gross Profit
606.06M	593.27M	554.20M	592.32M	489.82M	305.28M
	EBIT
56.78M	51.42M	22.13M	73.14M	105.29M	61.07M
	EBITDA
60.69M	56.58M	27.53M	77.93M	109.80M	65.89M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
50.50M	49.56M	28.15M	58.70M	99.84M	56.79M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
300.83M	256.60M	245.45M	234.72M	218.46M	146.01M
	Total Assets
713.90M	665.55M	608.89M	579.32M	480.41M	305.75M
	Total Debt
44.57M	40.73M	40.99M	24.50M	6.94M	0.00
	Net Debt
-256.26M	-215.87M	-204.46M	-210.22M	-211.51M	-146.01M
	Total Liabilities
260.53M	227.76M	223.75M	199.75M	163.40M	105.69M
	Stockholders Equity
454.19M	438.19M	385.14M	379.57M	317.01M	200.06M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
26.82M	21.04M	39.14M	18.27M	60.12M	71.45M
	Operating Cash Flow
33.45M	26.69M	43.34M	23.44M	62.31M	73.77M
	Investing Cash Flow
-9.72M	-9.11M	-4.20M	-5.17M	-2.19M	-2.32M
	Financing Cash Flow
2.37M	-5.36M	-30.38M	887.00K	12.77M	8.66M

Revolve Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price20.96

Price Trends

50DMA

20.17

Positive

100DMA

23.60

Negative

200DMA

26.36

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.42

Negative

RSI

50.69

Neutral

STOCH

43.06

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RVLV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.91, above the 50-day MA of 20.17, and below the 200-day MA of 26.36, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RVLV.

Revolve Group Risk Analysis

Revolve Group disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Revolve Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Revolve Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VIPS	78 Outperform	$7.72B	7.81	19.00%	3.20%	-5.90%	-11.16%
MNSO	76 Outperform	$5.81B	16.96	24.98%	3.51%	9.80%	-6.33%
RVLV	76 Outperform	$1.51B	29.82	11.97%	―	9.09%	106.50%
ASO	75 Outperform	$3.01B	8.33	20.14%	1.15%	-3.57%	-17.43%
ETSY	68 Neutral	$6.45B	42.76	-39.97%	―	2.18%	-32.87%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$6.94B	11.34	2.80%	4.26%	2.68%	-24.70%
W	44 Neutral	$6.15B	―	17.86%	―	-0.89%	46.62%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

RVLV

Revolve Group

20.28

3.44

20.43%

VIPS

Vipshop

14.96

0.43

2.96%

Wayfair

47.10

-5.52

-10.49%

ETSY

Etsy

59.29

0.42

0.71%

ASO

Academy Sports and Outdoors

45.90

-5.46

-10.63%

MNSO

MINISO Group Holding

18.36

-1.94

-9.56%

Revolve Group Corporate Events

Shareholder Meetings

Revolve Group Holds 2025 Annual Stockholders Meeting

Neutral

Jun 9, 2025

On June 6, 2025, Revolve Group held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders where three proposals were presented. The stockholders elected directors to the board, ratified KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, and approved the compensation of the company’s named executive officers on a non-binding advisory basis.

The most recent analyst rating on (RVLV) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Revolve Group stock, see the RVLV Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.