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MINISO Group Holding (MNSO)
NYSE:MNSO
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MINISO Group Holding
(NYSE:MNSO)
Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$20.50
▲(13.26%Upside)
Positive Factors
Market Opportunities
Catalysts for improving earnings visibility include the growing popularity of pop toys globally, which represent opportunities for Miniso.
Overseas Expansion
Overseas MINISO revenue increased by 30% YoY, contributing 36% of the total revenue.
Revenue Growth
Revenue rose 19% YoY, slightly above expectation, amid faster overseas growth.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
The reported non-IFRS NPAT fell 5% YoY to RMB587mn, 11% below expectation on higher DTC-related expenses.
Market Challenges
Concerns about impact from US tariffs and macroeconomic slowdown.
Profitability Concerns
Higher net finance expense related to CB and rising debt further weighed on the financial performance.
MINISO Group Holding (MNSO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.67B
Dividend Yield3.55%
Average Volume (3M)1.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.8
Beta (1Y)0.74
Revenue Growth9.80%
EPS Growth-6.33%
CountryUS
Employees7,003
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength57
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.19
Shares Outstanding312,834,350
10 Day Avg. Volume620,158
30 Day Avg. Volume1,222,338
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.52
Price to Book (P/B)17.24
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio102.87
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.83Price Target Upside9.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
MINISO Group Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of lifestyle products in China, Asia, the Americas, and Europe. The company offers products in various categories, including home decor products, small electronics, textiles, accessories, beauty tools, toys, cosmetics, personal care products, snacks, fragrances and perfumes, and stationeries and gifts under the MINISO and WonderLife brand names; and blind boxes, toy bricks, model figures, model kits, collectible dolls, Ichiban Kuji, sculptures, and other popular toys under the TOP TOY brand. As of June 30, 2021, it operated a network of approximately 4,749 MINISO stores, as well as online sales channels. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Guangzhou, China.
How the Company Makes MoneyMINISO makes money primarily through the retail sale of its vast array of products across its global store network. The company generates revenue by directly operating stores and through franchising, where it partners with local businesses to expand its presence in various markets. Additionally, MINISO benefits from economies of scale in product sourcing and manufacturing, allowing it to offer competitive pricing while maintaining healthy profit margins. The company also engages in brand collaborations and partnerships, which can enhance its product offerings and attract a wider customer base, contributing to increased sales and revenue.
MINISO Group Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 23, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -18.43%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong overall performance with significant revenue growth and successful international expansion. However, challenges remain with same-store sales declines and increased expenses impacting profit margins. The company is making strategic adjustments to address these issues.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue Growth
MINISO Group's total revenue reached RMB 4.43 billion, representing a 90% year-over-year increase, exceeding the upper limit of their 50% to 80% growth guidance.
Strong Overseas Performance
Overseas revenue was RMB 1.59 billion, a 30% increase year-over-year, exceeding the upper limit of their 20% to 25% guidance.
IP Strategy Success
The ChiiKawa New Year collection, ChiiKawa Cherry Blossoms series, and Stitch collections received outstanding market response and sales performance.
Expansion of Large Store Strategy
Opened 5 new MINISO locations and established 43 flagship stores, with new stores achieving 27% higher average efficiency compared to stores from the same period of 2024.
Adjusted EBITDA Margin Improvement
Adjusted EBITDA margin for Q1 2025 was 23.4%, up by 7.5%.
Negative Updates
Same-Store Sales Decline
Domestic same-store sales declined by a mid-single-digit, although the rate of decline has narrowed.
Increased Expenses Impacting Profit Margin
Combined selling and administrative expenses grew by 45%, resulting in a 5 percentage-point increase in the expense ratio compared to the same period last year.
Challenges in Northern China
Same-store improvement faced pressure in Northern China, particularly in the Northeast and Northwest regions.
High Tax Rate
Effective tax rate was 26.6%, higher than expected, primarily due to convertible bonds and related financial expenses.
Company Guidance
During the MINISO 2025 Q1 earnings call, the company reported a robust revenue growth of 90% year-over-year, reaching RMB 4.43 billion, surpassing their guidance range of 50% to 80%. The growth was driven by a 16.5% increase in the MINISO brand revenue and a 59% rise in the Top Toy brand revenue. Domestically, MINISO China achieved a 9% revenue growth, while overseas revenue surged by 30%, exceeding their upper guidance limit of 20% to 25%. The company's gross margin improved by nearly 1 percentage point to 44.2%, attributed to a higher proportion of overseas revenue and an effective IP strategy. Despite a 5% increase in the expense ratio due to new store openings, adjusted EBITDA margin climbed to 23.4%. The company remains optimistic about future performance, focusing on same-store growth, store expansion strategies, and strengthening their IP partnerships to sustain high-quality growth. Additionally, MINISO maintained a strong focus on cost control, supply chain optimization, and shareholder returns, with a commitment to combining dividends and share repurchases.MINISO Group Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
MINISO Group Holding shows strong financial health with impressive revenue and profit growth, supported by a solid equity base and manageable debt levels. The income statement and balance sheet are robust, though there is room to enhance cash flow efficiency.Income Statement
MINISO Group Holding has demonstrated solid growth in its income statement. The revenue growth rate from 2023 to 2024 was impressive, illustrating a strong upward trajectory. The gross profit margin and net profit margin have shown considerable improvement, indicating enhanced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting effective cost management and operational efficiency. Overall, the company's income statement reveals strong growth and profitability, positioning it favorably in the specialty retail sector.83
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of MINISO Group Holding reflects financial stability with a solid equity base and a manageable level of debt. The debt-to-equity ratio is low, suggesting conservative leverage. The return on equity has significantly improved, showcasing the company's ability to generate returns from shareholders' investments. The equity ratio indicates a healthy proportion of equity financing. While there is a strong equity position, the company should remain vigilant in managing liabilities to sustain this positive trend.79
Positive
Cash Flow
The cash flow analysis of MINISO Group Holding highlights a stable cash generation capability. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating efficient conversion of earnings into cash. The free cash flow growth rate is positive, supporting future investments and debt servicing. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests room for improvement in cash flow management. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects a solid cash position, with opportunities to enhance cash flow efficiency.76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 17.70B | 16.99B | 11.47B | 11.47B | 10.09B | 9.07B |
| Gross Profit | 7.98B | 7.64B | 4.44B | 4.44B | 3.07B | 2.43B |
| EBITDA | 3.07B | 3.23B | 2.16B | 2.16B | 870.01M | 481.17M |
| Net Income | 2.45B | 2.62B | 1.77B | 1.77B | 638.17M | -1.42B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 26.19B | 18.12B | 14.49B | 13.45B | 11.28B | 10.71B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.25B | 6.70B | 6.88B | 7.28B | 5.80B | 6.87B |
| Total Debt | 9.21B | 3.11B | 805.25M | 892.95M | 658.01M | 825.01M |
| Total Liabilities | 15.51B | 7.76B | 5.29B | 4.53B | 4.25B | 4.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.63B | 10.31B | 9.17B | 8.90B | 7.03B | 6.66B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.41B | 1.41B | 1.67B | 1.49B | 1.12B | 736.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.17B | 2.17B | 2.20B | 1.67B | 1.41B | 916.32M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -533.25M | -533.25M | 354.15M | -293.41M | -2.13B | -518.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.72B | -1.72B | -2.64B | -325.96M | -733.56M | 3.54B |
MINISO Group Holding Technical Analysis
Neutral
18.10
Price Trends
18.38
Negative
18.92
Negative
19.68
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.10
Negative
49.84
Neutral
86.69
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNSO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.03, below the 50-day MA of 18.38, and below the 200-day MA of 19.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.69 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MNSO.
MINISO Group Holding Risk Analysis
MINISO Group Holding disclosed 103 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MINISO Group Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MINISO Group Holding Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $7.33B | 27.54 | 15.30% | ― | 10.71% | -10.36% | |
78 Outperform | $7.78B | 7.86 | 19.00% | 3.18% | -5.90% | -11.16% | |
76 Outperform | $5.67B | 16.79 | 24.98% | 3.55% | 9.80% | -6.33% | |
75 Outperform | $1.52B | 30.66 | 11.97% | ― | 9.09% | 106.50% | |
67 Neutral | ¥251.03B | 13.17 | 6.57% | 2.80% | 5.06% | -11.36% | |
64 Neutral | $6.80B | 8.59 | -52.83% | 2.49% | -0.93% | -4.07% | |
64 Neutral | $5.36B | 37.62 | -39.97% | ― | 2.18% | -32.87% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
MNSO
MINISO Group Holding
18.10
0.22
1.23%
BBWI
Bath & Body Works
32.78
-3.30
-9.15%
VIPS
Vipshop
15.07
2.29
17.92%
FIVE
Five Below
131.39
25.22
23.75%
ETSY
Etsy
52.96
-5.49
-9.39%
RVLV
Revolve Group
21.55
6.17
40.12%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.