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MINISO Group Holding (MNSO)
NYSE:MNSO

MINISO Group Holding (MNSO) AI Stock Analysis

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MNSO

MINISO Group Holding

(NYSE:MNSO)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$21.50
▲(5.24% Upside)
MINISO Group Holding's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, highlighting robust growth and strategic achievements. However, bearish technical indicators and challenges in certain markets slightly offset these strengths.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand and effective market strategies, enhancing long-term financial stability and market position.
International Expansion
Significant growth in international markets, especially the U.S., suggests successful global expansion and diversification of revenue streams.
Store Network Expansion
Expanding store network enhances market presence and accessibility, supporting sustained revenue growth and brand recognition.
Negative Factors
Challenges in Southeast Asia
Macroeconomic and social challenges in Southeast Asia could hinder growth and profitability, impacting regional performance.
High Share-Based Compensation
Increased share-based compensation expenses may pressure margins and affect profitability, necessitating careful cost management.
Effective Tax Rate Increase
A higher effective tax rate reduces net income, impacting cash flow and financial performance, requiring strategic tax planning.

MINISO Group Holding (MNSO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

MINISO Group Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of lifestyle products in China, Asia, the Americas, and Europe. The company offers products in various categories, including home decor products, small electronics, textiles, accessories, beauty tools, toys, cosmetics, personal care products, snacks, fragrances and perfumes, and stationeries and gifts under the MINISO and WonderLife brand names; and blind boxes, toy bricks, model figures, model kits, collectible dolls, Ichiban Kuji, sculptures, and other popular toys under the TOP TOY brand. As of June 30, 2021, it operated a network of approximately 4,749 MINISO stores, as well as online sales channels. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Guangzhou, China.
How the Company Makes MoneyMINISO generates revenue primarily through the sale of its products in retail stores and online platforms. Its revenue model is built on a combination of low-cost sourcing, efficient supply chain management, and a focus on high turnover of inventory. Key revenue streams include direct sales from brick-and-mortar stores, which are complemented by e-commerce sales through its website and third-party platforms. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers that enable it to maintain competitive pricing. Additionally, MINISO's franchise model allows for rapid expansion and contributes to its earnings through franchise fees and royalties from franchisees, enhancing its global presence.

MINISO Group Holding Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 20, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong revenue and profit growth, particularly in international markets such as the U.S., and successful brand performance with MINISO and TOP TOY. However, challenges in Southeast Asia and increased SBC expenses impacted financials. The sentiment is positive due to strong growth and strategic achievements outweighing the challenges.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
The group delivered accelerated growth with revenue increased by 28.2%, supporting the high end of guidance.
Flagship Brands Performance
MINISO brand grew by 23%, while TOP TOY delivered exceptional revenue growth of 111%.
Profitability Milestone
Adjusted operating profit crossed RMB 1 billion for the first time, growing by 40.8%.
International Expansion
The U.S. market delivered revenue growth of over 65%, with same-store sales growth in a low double digit.
Store Network Expansion
International MINISO store network expanded with a net 170 stores during the quarter.
Inventory and Cash Flow Management
Inventory turnover improved, and the company maintained a strong cash reserve of RMB 7.77 billion.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Southeast Asia
Operating challenges include macroeconomic downturns and social unrest affecting performance.
High Share-Based Compensation (SBC)
SBC expenses totaled RMB 176 million, significantly increased due to the TOP TOY equity incentives plan.
Effective Tax Rate Increase
Effective tax rate was 33.9%, compared to 24.8% the same period last year, primarily due to non-deductible expenses.
Company Guidance
During the MINISO Group 2025 September Quarter Earnings Results Presentation, several key metrics were highlighted. The company reported a 28.2% increase in revenue, reaching RMB 5.8 billion, which aligned with the high end of their guidance. Same-store sales showed mid-single-digit growth, while the flagship brands MINISO and TOP TOY saw revenue growth of 23% and 111%, respectively. The group maintained a stable gross profit margin of 44.7%, with the gross profit reaching RMB 2.6 billion, a 27.6% increase. The adjusted operating profit crossed the RMB 1 billion threshold for the first time, growing by 40.8% to RMB 1.02 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 17.6%. In the international segment, revenue exceeded RMB 2.3 billion, growing by 28%, with the U.S. market showing over 65% revenue growth. The company also noted a net addition of 102 MINISO stores domestically and 170 internationally during the quarter. Looking ahead, MINISO aims for high-quality development with a focus on both scale and quality, expecting a full-year revenue growth of 25%.

MINISO Group Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary
MINISO Group Holding demonstrates strong financial health with impressive revenue and profit growth, a solid equity base, and manageable debt levels. The income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement collectively indicate robust financial performance, although there is room for improvement in cash flow efficiency.
Income Statement
MINISO Group Holding has demonstrated solid growth in its income statement. The revenue growth rate from 2023 to 2024 was impressive, illustrating a strong upward trajectory. The gross profit margin and net profit margin have shown considerable improvement, indicating enhanced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting effective cost management and operational efficiency. Overall, the company's income statement reveals strong growth and profitability, positioning it favorably in the specialty retail sector.
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of MINISO Group Holding reflects financial stability with a solid equity base and a manageable level of debt. The debt-to-equity ratio is low, suggesting conservative leverage. The return on equity has significantly improved, showcasing the company's ability to generate returns from shareholders' investments. The equity ratio indicates a healthy proportion of equity financing. While there is a strong equity position, the company should remain vigilant in managing liabilities to sustain this positive trend.
Cash Flow
The cash flow analysis of MINISO Group Holding highlights a stable cash generation capability. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating efficient conversion of earnings into cash. The free cash flow growth rate is positive, supporting future investments and debt servicing. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests room for improvement in cash flow management. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects a solid cash position, with opportunities to enhance cash flow efficiency.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue18.63B16.99B2.15B11.47B1.56B9.07B
Gross Profit8.40B7.64B914.90M4.44B475.52M2.43B
EBITDA2.48B3.23B2.16B2.16B870.01M481.17M
Net Income2.35B2.62B2.25B1.77B638.17M-1.42B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets26.65B18.12B14.49B13.45B11.28B10.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments7.46B6.70B6.63B7.28B870.63M6.87B
Total Debt10.36B3.11B1.25B892.95M658.01M825.01M
Total Liabilities15.75B7.76B5.29B4.53B4.25B4.05B
Stockholders Equity10.85B10.31B9.17B8.90B7.03B6.66B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.001.41B1.67B1.49B172.06M736.04M
Operating Cash Flow0.002.17B2.20B1.67B1.41B916.32M
Investing Cash Flow0.00-533.25M354.15M-293.41M-2.13B-518.80M
Financing Cash Flow0.00-1.72B-2.64B-325.96M-733.56M3.54B

MINISO Group Holding Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price20.43
Price Trends
50DMA
20.10
Positive
100DMA
21.69
Negative
200DMA
19.89
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.07
Negative
RSI
58.92
Neutral
STOCH
88.27
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNSO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.65, above the 50-day MA of 20.10, and above the 200-day MA of 19.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.27 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MNSO.

MINISO Group Holding Risk Analysis

MINISO Group Holding disclosed 103 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MINISO Group Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
Adverse developments affecting financial institutions or the financial services industry in general, such as actual events or concerns involving liquidity, defaults or non-performance by financial institutions or transactional counterparties, could adversely affect our current and projected business operations and our financial condition and results of operations. Q2, 2023
2.
Our business is operated globally. Global inflationary pressures could negatively affect our results of operations and cash flows. Q2, 2023

MINISO Group Holding Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$8.83B9.4017.83%2.46%-2.97%-8.57%
73
Outperform
$10.79B36.5617.27%15.78%14.99%
72
Outperform
$6.11B20.4420.83%3.10%13.37%-19.37%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
58
Neutral
$15.11B-44.883.35%42.99%
57
Neutral
$6.11B42.221.98%-20.98%
53
Neutral
$4.77B7.164.16%-1.04%-20.88%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MNSO
MINISO Group Holding
20.43
-1.66
-7.51%
BBWI
Bath & Body Works
22.57
-13.05
-36.64%
VIPS
Vipshop
18.56
6.32
51.63%
FIVE
Five Below
203.61
103.71
103.81%
W
Wayfair
114.84
71.13
162.73%
ETSY
Etsy
60.39
6.94
12.98%

MINISO Group Holding Corporate Events

MINISO Executes HKD 1.99 Million Share Buyback Under Hong Kong Repurchase Plan
Jan 8, 2026

On January 5, 2026, MINISO Group Holding Limited repurchased 52,600 ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at prices between HKD 37.16 and HKD 38 per share, for a total consideration of about HKD 1.99 million, under an automatic share repurchase plan. The repurchased shares are designated for cancellation, forming part of the company’s broader buyback program authorized by shareholders in June 2025, and a 30-day moratorium on new share issues or treasury share sales applies following this transaction, signaling continued capital-management efforts that marginally reduce share count and may support earnings per share and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNSO) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MINISO Group Holding stock, see the MNSO Stock Forecast page.

MINISO Reports Late-December 2025 Share Buybacks in Hong Kong Filing
Jan 6, 2026

On January 6, 2026, MINISO Group Holding Limited filed a Form 6-K for January 2026 reporting a series of Hong Kong regulatory “Next Day Disclosure Returns” covering equity changes and share repurchases between December 29, 2025, and January 5, 2026. The filing details that on December 29, 2025, MINISO repurchased 320,600 ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at prices between HK$36.74 and HK$38.48, for a total consideration of about HK$11.95 million, with the shares designated for cancellation and a portion executed under an automatic share repurchase plan. These transactions form part of a broader board-authorized buyback mandate approved on June 12, 2025, signaling continued capital management efforts that may support earnings per share and shareholder returns while imposing a moratorium on new share issues in Hong Kong until late January 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNSO) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MINISO Group Holding stock, see the MNSO Stock Forecast page.

MINISO Executes December Share Buyback Under Hong Kong Repurchase Mandate
Dec 30, 2025

MINISO Group Holding Limited reported in a December 30, 2025 filing that it had executed a small on-market share repurchase on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 23, 2025, buying back 52,600 ordinary shares at prices between HKD 37.64 and HKD 38.00 under its existing repurchase mandate and an automatic share repurchase plan. The repurchased shares, representing about 0.0043% of MINISO’s issued share capital, are designated for cancellation rather than treasury, signaling continued use of buybacks as a capital-management tool while triggering a 30-day moratorium, until January 22, 2026, on new share issues or transfers that could influence near-term trading dynamics for existing shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNSO) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MINISO Group Holding stock, see the MNSO Stock Forecast page.

MINISO Continues NYSE Share Buybacks Under 10b5-1 Program
Dec 23, 2025

On December 23, 2025, MINISO Group Holding filed a Form 6-K in the United States disclosing Hong Kong regulatory filings related to minor changes in its share capital structure. The company reported that on December 18, 2025, it repurchased 2,592 ordinary shares (equivalent to 648 ADSs) on the New York Stock Exchange at prices between US$4.8375 and US$4.875 per share, for a total consideration of about US$12,603, under an existing 10b5-1 share repurchase program. These shares were bought for cancellation, bringing total repurchases under a June 12, 2025 board mandate to roughly 6.2 million shares, or about 0.5% of the company’s issued share capital at the time of authorization. While the transaction is small relative to MINISO’s overall share base of more than 1.23 billion ordinary shares, it underscores ongoing capital management efforts and may provide incremental support to the stock as the company continues executing its buyback mandate, subject to a moratorium on new share issues or treasury share sales until January 17, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNSO) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MINISO Group Holding stock, see the MNSO Stock Forecast page.

MINISO Reports HK$10 Million Share Buyback Under Hong Kong Mandate
Dec 18, 2025

On December 18, 2025, MINISO Group Holding Limited, the China-based lifestyle retailer listed in Hong Kong, filed a Form 6-K reporting changes related to its Hong Kong-listed ordinary shares during December. The company disclosed that on December 15, 2025, it repurchased 256,600 ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at prices between HK$38.62 and HK$39.24 per share, for a total consideration of about HK$9.99 million, with these shares designated for cancellation. The buyback formed part of a share repurchase mandate approved on June 12, 2025, under which MINISO is authorized to repurchase up to 124,122,899 shares; following this latest transaction, the company had repurchased 5,881,424 shares, representing roughly 0.47% of its issued share capital at the time the mandate was granted. The move underscores ongoing capital management and shareholder-return efforts, while triggering a 30-day period through January 14, 2026, during which MINISO is restricted from issuing new shares or selling any treasury shares without prior exchange approval under Hong Kong listing rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNSO) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MINISO Group Holding stock, see the MNSO Stock Forecast page.

MINISO Executes Share Repurchase Program on NYSE
Dec 15, 2025

On December 10, 2025, MINISO Group Holding Limited executed a repurchase of 400 ordinary shares on the New York Stock Exchange as part of its 10b5-1 repurchase program. This move is part of the company’s strategy to manage its share capital effectively, potentially enhancing shareholder value and reflecting confidence in its financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNSO) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MINISO Group Holding stock, see the MNSO Stock Forecast page.

MINISO Executes Share Repurchase Plan on Hong Kong Exchange
Dec 11, 2025

On December 8, 2025, MINISO Group Holding Limited executed a share repurchase of 26,200 ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as part of its automatic share repurchase plan. This move, authorized by a resolution on June 12, 2025, reflects the company’s strategic financial management aimed at enhancing shareholder value. The repurchase was conducted at a price range between HKD 37.88 and HKD 38 per share, totaling HKD 995,440. This action is part of MINISO’s ongoing efforts to optimize its capital structure and indicates a positive outlook on its financial stability and market confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNSO) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MINISO Group Holding stock, see the MNSO Stock Forecast page.

MINISO Executes Share Repurchase Plan in December 2025
Dec 8, 2025

On December 3, 2025, MINISO Group Holding Limited executed a share repurchase of 52,600 ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as part of an automatic share repurchase plan. This move is part of the company’s ongoing strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value, reflecting its commitment to maintaining a balanced approach to growth and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNSO) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MINISO Group Holding stock, see the MNSO Stock Forecast page.

MINISO Reports Stable Share Capital for November 2025
Dec 3, 2025

On December 3, 2025, MINISO Group Holding Limited reported no changes in its share capital for November 2025, maintaining 10 billion authorized shares and 1.237 billion issued shares. The company also highlighted its ongoing share incentive plan, which allows for the issuance of new shares under certain conditions, though no new shares were issued in November. The report indicates stability in MINISO’s equity structure, which could reassure investors and stakeholders of the company’s steady market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNSO) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MINISO Group Holding stock, see the MNSO Stock Forecast page.

MINISO Executes Significant Share Repurchase on HKSE
Nov 28, 2025

On November 24, 2025, MINISO Group Holding Limited repurchased 866,800 ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. This move, including 52,600 shares repurchased through an automatic share repurchase plan, reflects the company’s strategic financial management and may influence its stock market performance and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNSO) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MINISO Group Holding stock, see the MNSO Stock Forecast page.

MINISO Group Reports Strong Q3 2025 Growth with 8,000 Global Stores
Nov 24, 2025

MINISO Group Holding Limited announced its unaudited financial results for the September quarter and the first nine months of 2025, highlighting a 28.2% increase in quarterly revenue to RMB5,796.6 million, surpassing previous guidance. The company achieved a milestone of 8,000 global stores, with strong growth in both the MINISO and TOP TOY brands. Despite a slight decline in gross margin, adjusted operating profit rose by 14.8% to RMB1,022.3 million. The results reflect MINISO’s robust expansion and market penetration, particularly in overseas markets, with a significant portion of new stores opening outside China.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNSO) stock is a Buy with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MINISO Group Holding stock, see the MNSO Stock Forecast page.

MINISO Schedules Board Meeting and Earnings Call for Q3 2025 Results
Nov 12, 2025

MINISO Group Holding Limited announced that its board of directors will meet on November 21, 2025, to consider and approve the unaudited financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The company will also hold an earnings conference call on the same day to discuss these results, providing stakeholders with insights into its financial performance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNSO) stock is a Buy with a $24.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MINISO Group Holding stock, see the MNSO Stock Forecast page.

MINISO Group Reports Stable Share Capital for October 2025
Nov 6, 2025

MINISO Group Holding Limited reported no changes in its share capital or issued shares for the month ending October 31, 2025. The company’s share incentive plan, adopted in September 2020, continues to allow for the potential issuance of additional shares, though no new shares were issued in October. This stability in share movements suggests a steady operational phase for the company, maintaining its current market position without immediate impacts on stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNSO) stock is a Buy with a $24.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MINISO Group Holding stock, see the MNSO Stock Forecast page.

MINISO Reports Share Capital Adjustments in September 2025
Oct 14, 2025

MINISO Group Holding Limited reported a decrease in its issued shares by 5,072,672 as of September 30, 2025, due to share repurchases and cancellations. This adjustment in share capital is part of the company’s ongoing strategy to manage its equity structure, potentially impacting shareholder value and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNSO) stock is a Buy with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MINISO Group Holding stock, see the MNSO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 23, 2025