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Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS)
NYSE:VIPS
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Vipshop
(NYSE:VIPS)
Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$16.50
▲( 14.90% Upside)
Positive Factors
Apparel Segment Growth
The apparel segment returned to positive growth during the quarter.
Membership Growth
A return to growth in apparel and an 18% rise in SVIP members, now driving over half of online spending.
Negative Factors
Analyst Downgrade
Analysts have downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral due to less than 15% expected total return and lack of near-term catalyst.
Lack of Growth Catalysts
There is a lack of growth catalyst for VIPS in the first half of 2025.
Revenue Decline
Revenue declined 5% year over year and active customers fell 4%.
Vipshop (VIPS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.40B
Dividend Yield3.2%
Average Volume (3M)4.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.5
Beta (1Y)0.92
Revenue Growth-5.90%
EPS Growth-11.16%
CountryUS
Employees14,966
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength76
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.62
Shares Outstanding437,081,500
10 Day Avg. Volume4,336,288
30 Day Avg. Volume4,060,469
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.32
Price to Book (P/B)7.64
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.43Price Target Upside28.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
Vipshop Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionVipshop Holdings Limited operates online platforms for various brands in the People's Republic of China. It operates in Vip.com, Shan Shan Outlets, and Others segments. The company offers women's apparel, such as casual wear, jeans, dresses, outerwear, lingerie, pajamas, and maternity clothes; men's apparel comprising casual and smart-casual T-shirts, polo shirts, jackets, pants, and underwear; and skin care and cosmetic products, including cleansers, lotions, face and body creams, face masks, sunscreen, foundations, lipsticks, eye shadows, and other cosmetics-related items. It also provides shoes and bags, which comprises casual and formal shoes, purses, satchels, luggage, duffel bags, and wallets; handbags; apparel, gears and accessories, furnishings and decor, toys, and games for boys, girls, infants, and toddlers; sportswear, sports gear, and footwear for various sporting activities; home furnishings, such as bed and bath products, home decor, kitchen and tabletop items, and home appliances; and consumer electronic products. In addition, the company offers food and snacks, beverages, fresh produce, and pet goods; beauty products; and internet finance services, including consumer and supplier financing, and microcredit. Vipshop Holdings Limited provides its branded products through its vip.com and vipshop.com online platforms, as well as through its internet website and cellular phone application. Further, it offers warehousing, logistics, product procurement, research and development, technology development, and consulting services; software development and information technology support solutions; and supply chain services. Vipshop Holdings Limited was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
How the Company Makes MoneyVipshop makes money primarily through the sale of discounted branded products on its e-commerce platform. The company operates a flash sales model, where it purchases excess inventory from brands at a discount and resells these products at competitive prices to its customers. This model allows Vipshop to offer significant discounts, attracting a large customer base. Revenue is generated from the markup on these discounted products. Additionally, Vipshop benefits from strategic partnerships with various international and domestic brands, enhancing its product offerings and expanding its customer reach. The company's logistics and supply chain efficiency also contribute to its profitability by minimizing overhead costs and ensuring timely delivery of products.
Vipshop Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Vipshop demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability and a robust balance sheet, indicative of prudent financial management. While past cash flows have been strong, recent operational cash flow issues need monitoring. Overall, the company is well-positioned for continued growth in the retail sector.Income Statement
The company exhibits strong profitability with a high gross profit margin and consistent net profit margins over the years. Revenue has shown fluctuations but remains robust, indicating resilience in a competitive retail sector. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting efficient operational management.82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
Vipshop maintains a solid balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio and strong equity ratio, showcasing financial stability and low leverage. The return on equity is impressive, reflecting efficient use of equity capital. The company's assets and equity have been growing, supporting future expansion.88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows a volatile but positive free cash flow trend, indicating good cash generation capability. However, recent operating cash flow dropped to zero, raising concerns about operational cash sustainability. Nonetheless, previous years show strong free cash flow to net income ratios, highlighting effective cash management.75
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 108.42B | 112.86B | 103.15B | 117.06B | 101.86B | Gross Profit |
| 25.47B | 25.72B | 21.62B | 23.11B | 21.29B | EBIT |
| 9.17B | 9.10B | 6.20B | 5.58B | 5.86B | EBITDA |
| 10.48B | 11.53B | 6.96B | 6.25B | 6.31B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 7.74B | 8.12B | 6.30B | 4.68B | 5.91B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 28.22B | 27.90B | 23.53B | 21.68B | 19.32B | Total Assets |
| 74.94B | 72.32B | 65.48B | 62.29B | 58.94B | Total Debt |
| 3.05B | 2.34B | 3.66B | 3.21B | 2.70B | Net Debt |
| -23.30B | -23.07B | -18.28B | -13.08B | -9.29B | Total Liabilities |
| 33.39B | 33.76B | 31.40B | 28.46B | 29.56B | Stockholders Equity |
| 39.97B | 36.96B | 32.75B | 32.63B | 28.50B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 0.00 | 9.18B | 7.42B | 3.17B | 9.55B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 0.00 | 14.41B | 10.52B | 6.74B | 11.82B | Investing Cash Flow |
| 0.00 | -5.16B | 1.05B | -2.33B | -6.70B | Financing Cash Flow |
| 0.00 | -6.15B | -5.57B | -58.79M | -20.84M |
Vipshop Technical Analysis
Positive
14.36
Price Trends
14.28
Positive
14.23
Positive
13.85
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Negative
50.92
Neutral
22.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VIPS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.36, above the 50-day MA of 14.28, and above the 200-day MA of 13.85, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VIPS.
Vipshop Risk Analysis
Vipshop disclosed 81 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vipshop reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
You must not rely on our dividend policy for return on your investment in our ADSs because the amount, timing, and whether or not we distribute dividends at all is entirely at the discretion of our board of directors. Q4, 2023
2.
There can be no assurance that we will maintain profitable or positive cash flow from operating activities in the future. Q4, 2023
Vipshop Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $7.40B | 7.47 | 19.00% | 3.20% | -5.90% | -11.16% | |
75 Outperform | $18.17B | 48.84 | 101.78% | ― | 6.40% | 891.13% | |
75 Outperform | $6.75B | 16.68 | 24.98% | 3.18% | 9.80% | -6.33% | |
72 Outperform | $1.38B | 27.53 | 11.97% | ― | 9.09% | 106.50% | |
64 Neutral | $4.96B | 33.81 | -39.97% | ― | 2.18% | -32.87% | |
62 Neutral | $6.84B | 11.22 | 2.83% | 3.93% | 2.65% | -21.93% | |
50 Neutral | $4.65B | ― | 17.86% | ― | -0.89% | 46.62% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
VIPS
Vipshop
14.36
-1.04
-6.75%
W
Wayfair
36.20
-23.38
-39.24%
ETSY
Etsy
47.60
-13.47
-22.06%
RVLV
Revolve Group
19.35
0.35
1.84%
CHWY
Chewy
43.92
27.01
159.73%
MNSO
MINISO Group Holding
18.29
-4.77
-20.69%
Vipshop Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 20, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -7.18%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 15, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment, with positive developments in SVIP membership growth and strategic initiatives like the Made for Vipshop program and AI enhancements. However, these are offset by declines in revenue and profitability, along with increased marketing expenses and projected revenue challenges in the upcoming quarter.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Super VIP Membership Growth
Active SVIP customer base increased by 18% year-over-year, accounting for 51% of online spending, with double-digit growth continuing in Q1.
Expansion of Made for Vipshop Program
Over 200 brands joined the Made for Vipshop program by the end of March, enhancing the company's unique product offerings.
Commitment to Shareholder Returns
Year-to-date returns of over $400 million to shareholders, including $250 million in dividends and $150 million in share repurchases, maintaining a commitment to return no less than 75% of the full year 2024 non-GAAP net income.
Technology and AI Enhancements
Increased use of AI for customer experience improvements, including AI-powered search and recommendations, automated customer review summaries, and AI-generated marketing creatives.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Total net revenues for Q1 2025 were RMB26.3 billion, a decrease from RMB27.6 billion in the prior year period.
Profitability Pressure
Gross profit decreased to RMB6.1 billion from RMB6.5 billion, with a slight decline in gross margin to 23.2% from 23.7% year-over-year.
Increase in Marketing Expenses
Marketing expenses increased by 6.0% year-over-year to RMB732.1 million, with marketing expenses as a percentage of total net revenues rising from 2.5% to 2.8%.
Projection of Revenue Decline in Q2
Expected Q2 2025 total net revenues forecasted to be between RMB25.5 billion and RMB26.9 billion, representing a year-over-year decrease of approximately 5% to 0%.
Company Guidance
During Vipshop Holdings Limited's first quarter 2025 earnings call, several key metrics and guidance were discussed. The company reported total net revenues of RMB26.3 billion, a decrease from RMB27.6 billion in the prior year, with a gross margin of 23.2%. Operating expenses were RMB4.0 billion, representing 15.3% of total net revenues. Non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders was RMB2.3 billion, with a non-GAAP net margin of 8.8%. The company's SVIP membership saw an 18% increase in active members, accounting for 51% of online spending. Looking ahead, Vipshop expects second-quarter revenues between RMB25.5 billion and RMB26.9 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of approximately 5% to 0%. Despite these challenges, Vipshop remains committed to returning at least 75% of its full-year 2024 non-GAAP net income to shareholders, having already returned over $400 million year-to-date.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.