Academy Sports And Outdoors, Inc. (ASO)
NASDAQ:ASO
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Academy Sports and Outdoors
(NASDAQ:ASO)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$53.00
▲(4.85% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
ASO scores as a balanced setup: fundamentals are supported by revenue momentum and a healthier balance sheet, and valuation is compelling with a low P/E. This is tempered by weak technicals (clear downtrend) and fundamental watch items around margin pressure, softer cash conversion, and near-term consumer/inventory risks despite constructive FY2026 guidance.
Positive Factors
Store Expansion
A meaningful new-store program increases long-term sales capacity and creates a multi-year comp tailwind as recent cohorts lap. Strong early cohort performance implies management can scale brick-and-mortar growth profitably and supports durable footprint-driven revenue growth.
Negative Factors
SG&A Deleverage
Sustained SG&A pressure from store growth and technology investments compresses operating leverage and delays margin normalization. If revenue or transaction trends weaken, elevated fixed and semi‑fixed expenses could structurally constrain operating margin recovery for multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Store Expansion
A meaningful new-store program increases long-term sales capacity and creates a multi-year comp tailwind as recent cohorts lap. Strong early cohort performance implies management can scale brick-and-mortar growth profitably and supports durable footprint-driven revenue growth.
Read all positive factors
Academy Sports and Outdoors Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Stores
Indicates the number of retail locations, providing insight into the company's market presence and expansion strategy. More stores can signal growth and increased customer reach.
Indicates the number of retail locations, providing insight into the company's market presence and expansion strategy. More stores can signal growth and increased customer reach.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAcademy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.39B
Dividend Yield1.04%
Average Volume (3M)1.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.8
Beta (1Y)1.25
Revenue Growth2.02%
EPS Growth-3.69%
CountryUS
Employees9,900
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.67
Shares Outstanding64,508,130
10 Day Avg. Volume1,341,484
30 Day Avg. Volume1,166,596
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.72
Price to Book (P/B)1.69
Price to Sales (P/S)0.61
P/FCF Ratio16.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.32
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.74
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.96
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$61.46Price Target Upside21.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)6.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.31B
Academy Sports and Outdoors Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a sporting goods and outdoor recreational products retailer in the United States. The company sells coolers and drinkware, camping accessories, camping equipment, sunglasses,...
How the Company Makes Money
Academy Sports and Outdoors makes money primarily by selling merchandise to consumers through two main channels: (1) its physical retail stores and (2) its e-commerce site. Its revenue is generated from retail sales across key merchandise categori...
Academy Sports and Outdoors Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted multiple concrete operational and financial wins: top-line growth for the year, solid margin expansion, strong e-commerce momentum, successful RFID-driven in-stock improvements, meaningful cash generation and shareholder returns, and scalable loyalty and store expansion initiatives. These positives are balanced against near-term headwinds: a modest comp sales decline, traffic/transaction weakness (particularly among lower-income cohorts), elevated inventory levels, SG&A pressure from growth investments, and external macro risks (tariffs, inflation, gas prices). Management believes self-help initiatives (digital, loyalty relaunch, new-store comp waterfall, brand expansions) provide a path to positive comps and margin expansion in 2026, though results remain contingent on macro outcomes.Positive Updates
Quarterly and Full-Year Revenue Growth
Q4 net sales of $1.70B, up 2.5% year-over-year; full-year sales of $6.05B, up 2% vs prior year — first full-year top-line growth since 2021 and market share gains across the footprint.
Negative Updates
Comparable Store Sales Pressure
Q4 comp sales declined -1.6% year-over-year; guidance for 2026 comp range includes potential negative comps (-1% to +2%), reflecting ongoing consumer pressure.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly and Full-Year Revenue Growth
Q4 net sales of $1.70B, up 2.5% year-over-year; full-year sales of $6.05B, up 2% vs prior year — first full-year top-line growth since 2021 and market share gains across the footprint.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s FY2026 guidance called for net sales of $6.18B–$6.36B (up 2%–5%), comparable sales down 1% to up 2% (midpoint +0.5%), gross margin of 34.5%–35.0%, GAAP net income of $380M–$415M (GAAP diluted EPS $5.65–$6.15), adjusted net income of $410M–$445M (adjusted diluted EPS $6.10–$6.60, excluding ~ $37M of stock‑based comp) on ~67.0M diluted shares, adjusted free cash flow of $250M–$300M after $200M–$240M of CapEx, 20–25 new stores planned (majority back‑half weighted), RFID tagging to cover roughly one‑third of sales by spring, Jordan shop expansion of +55 doors (to >200), a Q2 relaunch of the My Academy Rewards Mastercard, expectation that Q1 will be the strongest quarter (lapping a -3.7% Q1 ’25 comp with the first seven weeks of FY26 running positive), $437M of share‑repurchase authorization remaining, and a 15% dividend increase to $0.15 per share.Academy Sports and Outdoors Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
69
Positive
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.05B | 5.93B | 6.16B | 6.40B | 6.77B |
| Gross Profit | 2.11B | 2.01B | 2.11B | 2.21B | 2.35B |
| EBITDA | 635.05M | 693.17M | 820.14M | 971.51M | 1.00B |
| Net Income | 376.77M | 418.45M | 519.19M | 628.00M | 671.38M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.28B | 4.90B | 4.68B | 4.60B | 4.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 330.32M | 288.93M | 347.92M | 337.14M | 486.00M |
| Total Debt | 1.89B | 1.79B | 1.70B | 1.77B | 1.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.11B | 2.90B | 2.72B | 2.97B | 3.12B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.17B | 2.00B | 1.95B | 1.63B | 1.47B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 222.13M | 328.49M | 327.49M | 443.20M | 597.25M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 434.80M | 528.08M | 535.78M | 552.00M | 673.26M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -172.04M | -186.12M | -206.14M | -108.81M | -76.02M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -221.37M | -400.95M | -318.87M | -592.05M | -488.85M |
Academy Sports and Outdoors Technical Analysis
Positive
50.55
Price Trends
54.42
Negative
55.90
Negative
52.77
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.34
Negative
48.37
Neutral
57.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 50.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.32, below the 50-day MA of 54.42, and below the 200-day MA of 52.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASO.
Academy Sports and Outdoors Risk Analysis
Academy Sports and Outdoors disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Academy Sports and Outdoors reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Academy Sports and Outdoors Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $22.67B | 22.47 | 53.29% | 1.37% | 1.30% | 1.14% | |
64 Neutral | $3.39B | 6.80 | 18.07% | 1.04% | 2.02% | -3.69% | |
64 Neutral | $20.68B | 19.77 | 19.45% | 2.33% | 28.06% | -27.66% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $12.99B | 12.85 | 38.54% | 5.46% | 0.39% | 17.90% | |
46 Neutral | $50.25M | -0.61 | -24.36% | ― | 0.96% | -48.94% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ASO
Academy Sports and Outdoors
52.52
12.04
29.75%
BBY
Best Buy Co
61.63
-6.73
-9.85%
DKS
Dick's Sporting Goods
231.24
61.15
35.95%
WSM
Williams-Sonoma
192.50
28.08
17.08%
SPWH
Sportsman's Warehouse
1.29
-0.70
-35.18%
Academy Sports and Outdoors Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Academy Sports Refinances Debt and Extends Credit Facility
Positive
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Academy Sports and Outdoors’ subsidiary Academy, Ltd. issued $500 million of 5.875% senior secured notes due 2031 in a private placement, using the proceeds to redeem its senior secured notes due 2027 and fully repay a $400 ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Academy Sports Prices $500 Million Senior Secured Notes
Positive
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Academy Sports and Outdoors announced that its wholly owned subsidiary Academy, Ltd. priced a $500 million private offering of 5.875% senior secured notes due 2031. The transaction, which is exempt from U.S. Securities Act registra...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Academy Sports Announces $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Academy Sports and Outdoors said its subsidiary Academy, Ltd. plans a private placement of $500 million in senior secured notes due 2031, offered under Rule 144A and Regulation S. The notes will be guaranteed on a senior secured ba...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Academy Sports Forecasts Q1 Sales Growth, Highlights Strategy
Positive
Apr 7, 2026
On April 7, 2026, Academy Sports + Outdoors reported that it expects first quarter fiscal 2026 sales to rise 6% to 7%, with comparable sales up 2% to 3%, signalling continued demand across its sporting goods and outdoor recreation categories. The ...
Business Operations and Strategy
Academy Sports Schedules Analyst Day to Outline Strategy
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
Academy Sports + Outdoors announced on March 31, 2026, that it will hold an Analyst Day event on April 7, 2026, beginning at 9:00 a.m. Eastern, where CEO Steve Lawrence, CFO Carl Ford, and Chief Customer Officer Chad Fox will outline the company&#...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Academy Sports Reports Q4 Growth, Expands Store Footprint
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
Academy Sports and Outdoors reported that for the fourth quarter ended Jan. 31, 2026, net sales rose 2.5% to $1.72 billion while comparable sales fell 1.6%, and diluted EPS increased 4.8% to $1.98, as the retailer opened five new stores in the qua...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.