Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.09B
• Dividend Yield: 1.12%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.63M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.33
• Revenue Growth: -3.57%
• EPS Growth: -17.43%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.76
• Shares Outstanding: 66,475,746
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,701,660
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,625,843
• PEG Ratio: -1.38
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.50
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.19
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.63
• 1Y Price Target: $52.82
• Price Target Upside: 13.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 70 Neutral
• Price Target: $50.00 ▲(7.50%Upside)

Academy Sports and Outdoors shows strong operational efficiency and valuation attractiveness. However, declining revenues and profitability, coupled with mixed technical indicators and external challenges like tariffs, weigh on the overall score. The company's strategic growth efforts, particularly in eCommerce and store expansion, are positive but need to be sustained to counteract financial headwinds.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Valuation stands at a relatively inexpensive ~7.6x NTM P/E, the balance sheet is clean, and cash generation remains strong (~$268m in the last 12 months), allowing ASO to pursue a long-term investment cycle to improve its fundamentals.

Loyalty Program

ASO enrolled 11M members shortly after launching its loyalty program, and there's potential for increased frequency and spending among the bottom 90% of customers.

Product Expansion

ASO has expanded its depth and breadth of Nike apparel by an average of ~20% in store, which could support ASO’s ability to receive more premium allocations from new and existing brands.

Negative Factors

Comparable Sales

A sustained inflection into positive comps proves elusive as May comps decelerate to -LSD% again, despite the Jordan brand launch and new store expansion.

Consumer Traffic

Overall traffic is down by 5.2%, with traffic outside of Quintiles 4 & 5 falling significantly, indicating potential challenges with the core customer.

Earnings

ASO reported 1Q25 adj. EPS of $0.76, below the consensus estimate of $0.90, and the company lowered FY25 guidance at the midpoint.

Academy Sports and Outdoors Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) is a leading full-line sporting goods and outdoor recreation retailer in the United States. The company offers a wide assortment of products in categories such as sports equipment, outdoor gear, footwear, apparel, and fitness equipment. With a focus on delivering high-quality products at competitive prices, Academy Sports and Outdoors caters to a broad range of customers, from novice sports enthusiasts to experienced outdoor adventurers. The company's retail footprint includes both physical stores and an online presence, providing convenient shopping options for consumers.

How the Company Makes Money

Academy Sports and Outdoors generates revenue primarily through the sale of sporting goods, outdoor products, and related apparel and footwear. The company's key revenue streams include in-store sales from its network of retail locations and e-commerce sales through its website. Academy Sports and Outdoors leverages strategic partnerships with well-known brands and suppliers to offer a diverse product selection, which attracts a wide customer base. Additionally, the company benefits from private label brands that contribute to higher profit margins. Seasonal promotions, merchandising strategies, and customer loyalty programs further enhance sales and drive revenue growth.

Academy Sports and Outdoors Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Academy Sports and Outdoors is experiencing declining revenues and profitability, which are affecting net margins and cash flows. However, the company maintains strong operational efficiency and a stable balance sheet with moderate leverage. Improving revenue growth and profitability is crucial for sustaining financial health.

Income Statement

The company shows a stable gross profit margin of approximately 34% over the TTM period. However, the net profit margin decreased from 7.05% last year to 6.55% in the TTM, indicating some pressure on profitability. Revenue growth has been negative, with a decline of 7.24% from 2022 to 2023 and a continuing downtrend to 2024. Nonetheless, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 8.54% and 11.13%, respectively, suggesting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio in the TTM is 0.94, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity (ROE) has decreased to 19.93% in the TTM from 27.06% in 2023, reflecting reduced profitability. The equity ratio is stable at 37.59%, providing a solid financial foundation. Overall, the company's balance sheet remains robust but shows signs of declining profitability.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow in the TTM has decreased from $528 million to $486 million, translating to a reduction in free cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.69, indicating a lower conversion of earnings into cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio stands at 1.25, suggesting efficient cash generation despite declining net income. The cash flow situation requires close monitoring due to the downward trend.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.92B	5.93B	6.16B	6.40B	6.77B	5.69B
Gross Profit	2.01B	2.01B	2.11B	2.21B	2.35B	1.73B
EBITDA	659.40M	693.17M	820.14M	971.51M	1.00B	534.95M
Net Income	388.07M	418.45M	519.19M	628.00M	671.38M	308.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.18B	4.90B	4.68B	4.60B	4.58B	4.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	285.10M	288.93M	347.92M	337.14M	486.00M	377.60M
Total Debt	1.83B	1.79B	1.70B	1.77B	1.85B	2.02B
Total Liabilities	3.23B	2.90B	2.72B	2.97B	3.12B	3.27B
Stockholders Equity	1.95B	2.00B	1.95B	1.63B	1.47B	1.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	266.88M	328.49M	327.49M	443.20M	597.25M	970.33M
Operating Cash Flow	485.88M	528.08M	535.78M	552.00M	673.26M	1.01B
Investing Cash Flow	-204.75M	-186.12M	-206.14M	-108.81M	-76.02M	-33.14M
Financing Cash Flow	-374.17M	-400.95M	-318.87M	-592.05M	-488.85M	-750.23M

Academy Sports and Outdoors Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 46.51
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 46.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.00, above the 50-day MA of 41.80, and below the 200-day MA of 49.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASO.

Academy Sports and Outdoors Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DKS	78 Outperform	$16.24B	14.49	40.22%	2.39%	3.33%	15.47%
BBY	71 Outperform	$14.42B	16.67	30.21%	5.57%	-3.23%	-28.11%
ASO	70 Neutral	$3.09B	8.57	20.14%	1.12%	-3.57%	-17.43%
Sector *	61 Neutral	C$5.16B	10.92	18.94%	4.26%	5.08%	6.52%
ETSY	57 Neutral	$5.28B	35.97	-39.97%	―	2.18%	-32.87%
SPWH	54 Neutral	$135.26M	―	-15.67%	―	-4.92%	-13.73%
BGFV	46 Neutral	$27.20M	―	-39.57%	4.20%	-8.85%	-397.36%

Academy Sports and Outdoors Corporate Events

Academy Sports Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results

On June 10, 2025, Academy Sports and Outdoors reported its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, ending May 3, 2025. The company experienced a 0.9% decline in net sales and a 3.7% drop in comparable sales, although eCommerce sales grew by 10.2%. Academy opened five new stores and launched the Jordan Brand, contributing to sequential monthly improvements despite economic challenges. The company revised its annual sales guidance to account for potential inflationary impacts, while continuing to focus on tariff mitigation and market share growth through its value-oriented strategy. The company returned $108 million to shareholders and plans to open 20 to 25 new stores in fiscal 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASO) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Academy Sports and Outdoors stock, see the ASO Stock Forecast page.

Academy Sports Approves Governance Changes at Annual Meeting

On June 5, 2025, Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting where stockholders approved significant amendments to the company’s governance structure. These included removing supermajority voting requirements, declassifying the board for annual director elections starting in 2026, and adding a provision to exculpate certain officers from liability under specific circumstances. Additionally, the stockholders elected three Class II directors, ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor, and approved executive compensation for fiscal year 2024. Monique Picou was appointed to the Nominating and Governance Committee of the Board.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASO) stock is a Buy with a $72.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Academy Sports and Outdoors stock, see the ASO Stock Forecast page.

Academy Sports and Outdoors Board Member Resigns

On May 5, 2025, Scott Boatwright resigned from his position as an independent Class III member of the Board of Directors at Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc., effective immediately. Following his resignation, the Board reduced its size from eleven to ten members. The resignation was not due to any disagreements with the company’s operations or policies.