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Sportsman's Warehouse (SPWH)
NASDAQ:SPWH

Sportsman's Warehouse (SPWH) AI Stock Analysis

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Sportsman's Warehouse

(NASDAQ:SPWH)

Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
▼(-5.41%Downside)
Sportsman's Warehouse's overall stock score of 55 reflects significant financial challenges, with declining revenues, high leverage, and negative cash flows being the most impactful factors. The technical analysis provides a positive outlook, suggesting potential for price appreciation. The valuation is not attractive due to negative earnings, and the earnings call presents a mixed sentiment with both achievements and ongoing challenges.
Positive Factors
Cost Management
The solid adj. EBITDA outlook reflects a turnaround effort on cost management, with initiatives helping to keep SG&A in check and potentially increase gross margins in the future.
Earnings
SPWH reported results that were above expectations, indicating strong financial performance.
Strategy
The company's successful strategy to target value-conscious customers during the holiday season drove traffic and maintained solid margins.
Negative Factors
Consumer Environment
The consumer spending environment remains difficult, with no significant signs of positive macro trends developing.
Economic Conditions
Challenging economic conditions persist, limiting the potential for immediate growth.

Sportsman's Warehouse (SPWH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Sportsman's Warehouse Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSportsman's Warehouse (SPWH) is a prominent retailer specializing in outdoor sporting goods. The company operates in the retail sector, focusing on a wide array of products for activities such as hunting, fishing, camping, and other outdoor recreational activities. Its core offerings include firearms, ammunition, hunting gear, fishing equipment, camping supplies, and apparel, catering to outdoor enthusiasts and adventure seekers across the United States.
How the Company Makes MoneySportsman's Warehouse generates revenue primarily through the sale of its extensive range of outdoor sporting goods and related products. The company's revenue streams are largely derived from its brick-and-mortar retail locations, which provide a comprehensive shopping experience for customers seeking outdoor equipment and apparel. Additionally, Sportsman's Warehouse benefits from its e-commerce platform, which expands its reach to customers who prefer online shopping. The company often engages in strategic partnerships with well-known brands to offer exclusive products and leverage brand recognition, further enhancing its sales. Seasonal promotions, loyalty programs, and community events also contribute to driving customer engagement and boosting sales.

Sportsman's Warehouse Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 03, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 59.48%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 03, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of positive and negative aspects. The company achieved its first positive year-over-year sales comp in four years and gained market share in firearms. E-commerce also showed strong growth. However, there was a significant net loss and pressure on gross margin due to strategic inventory adjustments. The sentiment is balanced with both notable achievements and challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Positive Year-Over-Year Sales Comp
Achieved the first positive year-over-year sales comp in nearly four years, with first quarter sales up 2% compared to last year.
Firearms Market Share Gain
Firearm unit sales increased nearly 7% over last year, significantly outpacing the adjusted NICS data which declined 5.4%, suggesting market share capture.
E-commerce Growth
E-commerce business posted a positive comp, up 8% over last year, fueled by a new digital-first marketing strategy and improved omnichannel customer experience.
Fishing Category Success
Fishing sales were up 11%, with a two-year comp stack growth of 12.3%, validating the new merchandising strategy.
SG&A Leverage Improvement
SG&A expenses improved as a percentage of net sales, dropping from 38.6% to 38.2%, reflecting continued focus on expense discipline.
Negative Updates
Net Loss in Q1
Net loss for the first quarter was $21.3 million compared with a net loss of $18.1 million in the first quarter of the prior year.
Pressure on Gross Margin
Gross margin was up only 20 basis points due to offsetting increased freight expense tied to strategic inventory pull-forward in anticipation of higher tariffs.
Camping Sales Decline
Camping sales were down, attributed to a later spring and the timing of Easter, impacting the overall category performance.
Increased Inventory Levels
Inventory at the end of Q1 was $412.3 million, up from $391.6 million, due to a strategic pull-forward of approximately $20 million of inventory ahead of rising tariffs.
Adjusted EBITDA Decline
Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was negative $9 million compared with adjusted EBITDA of negative $8.7 million in the first quarter of 2024.
Company Guidance
During the Sportsman's Warehouse Q1 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance highlighting several key metrics and strategic initiatives. The company reported a 2% increase in net sales to $249.1 million compared to the previous year, marking the first positive year-over-year sales comp in nearly four years. Despite macroeconomic challenges, they achieved a 30.4% gross margin, up 20 basis points from the prior year, partly due to favorable mix and rate improvements in their fishing business. The company's firearms unit sales increased by nearly 7%, outperforming the adjusted NICS data, which declined 5.4%. Additionally, e-commerce sales rose by 8%, driven by a new digital-first marketing strategy. Looking ahead, Sportsman's Warehouse anticipates fiscal 2025 net sales to range between down 1% to up 3.5% compared to 2024, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $33 million and $45 million. The company remains focused on inventory efficiency, aiming to end the year with lower inventory levels and generate positive free cash flow to reduce debt.

Sportsman's Warehouse Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Sportsman's Warehouse is facing significant financial challenges, with declining revenues, a high debt-to-equity ratio, and negative cash flows. The negative net profit margin highlights profitability issues, although some operational efficiency is noted through positive EBITDA.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
Sportsman's Warehouse has experienced declining revenue over the years, with a decrease from $1.5 billion in 2022 to $1.2 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. Gross profit margin has also decreased, indicating a reduction in cost efficiency. The net profit margin has turned negative in recent years, reflecting losses, which is a significant concern for profitability. Despite these challenges, EBITDA margin remains positive, suggesting some operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The company's balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, increasing from 1.3 in 2022 to 2.5 in TTM 2025, indicating high leverage and potential financial risk. The equity ratio has been decreasing, showing a reduced proportion of equity to total assets. Return on equity has turned negative, reflecting recent losses impacting shareholders' returns. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial instability with increasing liabilities.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
The cash flow statement reveals fluctuating free cash flow, with a notable decline to negative in TTM 2025. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating operational cash generation, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting high capital expenditures relative to cash generation. This suggests challenges in maintaining liquidity and funding operations without external financing.
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.20B1.20B1.29B1.40B1.51B1.45B
Gross Profit372.32M370.47M383.41M460.24M490.30M476.45M
EBITDA22.13M21.65M13.67M89.84M203.38M172.10M
Net Income-36.25M-33.06M-29.00M40.52M108.47M91.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets929.67M852.10M886.21M858.96M840.58M660.82M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.56M2.83M3.14M2.39M57.02M65.53M
Total Debt528.44M477.20M481.74M393.45M343.20M264.31M
Total Liabilities714.61M616.40M621.65M565.85M526.41M456.16M
Stockholders Equity215.06M235.70M264.56M293.11M314.17M204.66M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-6.49M19.59M-27.63M-16.72M-75.08M219.06M
Operating Cash Flow8.56M34.15M52.27M46.79M-21.63M238.82M
Investing Cash Flow-15.00M-14.48M-79.89M-60.59M-53.45M-26.23M
Financing Cash Flow7.82M-19.98M28.38M-40.84M66.57M-148.75M

Sportsman's Warehouse Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price3.70
Price Trends
50DMA
2.61
Positive
100DMA
2.00
Positive
200DMA
2.22
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.25
Positive
RSI
65.36
Neutral
STOCH
81.20
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SPWH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.56, above the 50-day MA of 2.61, and above the 200-day MA of 2.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.20 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SPWH.

Sportsman's Warehouse Risk Analysis

Sportsman's Warehouse disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sportsman's Warehouse reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Sportsman's Warehouse Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
DKDKS
78
Outperform
$16.57B14.7940.22%2.35%3.33%15.47%
73
Outperform
$753.98M31.1414.01%35.78%23.49%
ASASO
70
Neutral
$3.18B8.8120.14%1.09%-3.57%-17.43%
64
Neutral
$5.60B38.13-39.97%2.18%-32.87%
60
Neutral
€5.76B12.54-11.12%4.05%3.79%-34.20%
55
Neutral
$136.41M-15.67%-4.92%-13.73%
51
Neutral
$32.58M-39.57%3.52%-8.85%-397.36%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SPWH
Sportsman's Warehouse
3.70
1.63
78.74%
BGFV
Big 5 Sporting Goods
1.41
-1.08
-43.37%
DKS
Dick's Sporting Goods
207.67
11.19
5.70%
LQDT
Liquidity Services
24.56
4.72
23.79%
ETSY
Etsy
53.46
-3.55
-6.23%
ASO
Academy Sports and Outdoors
49.16
-2.21
-4.30%

Sportsman's Warehouse Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Sportsman’s Warehouse Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 29, 2025

On May 28, 2025, Sportsman’s Warehouse held its annual stockholders meeting where key decisions were made regarding the company’s governance and financial oversight. Stockholders elected four board members, approved executive compensation, and ratified Grant Thornton LLP as the independent accounting firm for fiscal year 2025, indicating continued confidence in the company’s leadership and financial management.

The most recent analyst rating on (SPWH) stock is a Buy with a $3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sportsman’s Warehouse stock, see the SPWH Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 03, 2025