Oceanfirst Financial (OCFC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.06B
• Dividend Yield: 4.05%
• Average Volume (3M): 329.98K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.05
• Revenue Growth: -2.15%
• EPS Growth: -25.32%
• Country: US
• Employees: 975
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.41
• Shares Outstanding: 57,402,016
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 457,239
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 329,978
• PEG Ratio: -0.50
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.57
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.49
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.98
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.26
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 25.44
• 1Y Price Target: $21.00
• Price Target Upside: 14.25% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.96
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $589.34M

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $18.50 ▲(0.65% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

OCFC scores in the mid-range driven primarily by moderate financial performance—steady profitability and cash generation but weakening growth, margins, and ROE with higher leverage. Technical signals are currently weak (below key moving averages with low RSI/Stoch), while valuation is a relative support via a mid-teens P/E and a ~4.4% dividend yield. Earnings-call commentary adds a modest positive tilt due to reiterated growth/NIM guidance and strong asset quality, tempered by margin and fee-income pressure plus one-time costs.

Positive Factors

Sustained loan growth and NII expansion

Consistent, large-scale loan originations and consecutive NII growth establish a durable core earnings driver. Higher average loans expand interest-earning assets, supporting structural net interest income growth and room for margin improvement as loan mix shifts toward higher-yielding C&I and commercial lending.

Very low credit losses and strong asset quality

Extremely low NPLs and charge-off metrics indicate a high-quality loan portfolio that reduces the need for recurring provisioning. Sustained asset quality preserves capital, supports dividend continuity and enables continued credit growth with lower earnings volatility over multiple quarters.

Merger and $225M Warburg investment to boost scale

A strategic acquisition plus a sizable private-equity capital infusion materially increases scale, geographic footprint and capital flexibility. If executed and integrated well, the deal should improve deposit diversification, operating leverage and long-term profitability potential across markets.

Negative Factors

Revenue decline and margin compression

A multi-year shift from prior expansion to contracting revenue and falling margins erodes core earnings capacity. Persistent margin pressure lowers operating leverage and ROE, constraining the bank's ability to reinvest, grow capital organically, or absorb cyclical stress without external capital or cost actions.

Rising leverage and weaker capital efficiency

Higher leverage for a regional bank increases funding and interest obligations and may reduce capital cushions. Combined with falling ROE, this weakens capital efficiency, could limit discretionary capital uses like buybacks, and raises sensitivity to funding stress or higher loss-absorbing demands over the medium term.

Declining fee income and restructuring costs

Reduced noninterest income and costs tied to outsourcing and transaction activity weaken revenue diversification and temporarily elevate expense ratios. Structural loss of fee streams makes earnings more dependent on interest margin, increasing vulnerability if NIM or loan growth slows during integration or rate normalization.

Oceanfirst Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

OceanFirst Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for OceanFirst Bank N.A. that provides community banking services. It accepts money market accounts, savings accounts, interest-bearing checking accounts, non-interest-bearing demand deposits, and time deposits to retail, government, and business customers. The company also offers commercial real estate, multi-family, land loans, construction, and commercial and industrial loans; fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage loans that are secured by one-to-four family residences; and consumer loans, such as home equity loans and lines of credit, student loans, overdraft line of credit, loans on savings accounts, and other consumer loans. In addition, it invests in mortgage-backed securities, securities issued by the U.S. Government and agencies, corporate securities, and other investments. Further, the company offers bankcard, wealth management, and trust and asset management services; and sells alternative investment products and life insurance products. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through its branch office in Toms River; administrative office located in Red Bank and Mount Laurel; 46 additional branch offices and four deposit production facilities located throughout central and southern New Jersey; and commercial loan production offices in New Jersey, New York City, the Philadelphia area, Baltimore, and Boston. The company was founded in 1902 and is based in Red Bank, New Jersey.

How the Company Makes Money

OceanFirst Financial generates revenue primarily through net interest income, which is the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. Key revenue streams include residential and commercial mortgage loans, consumer loans, and business banking services. The bank also earns non-interest income from fees associated with deposit accounts, wealth management services, and transaction services. Additionally, OceanFirst has strategic partnerships with various financial service providers to enhance its offerings and increase customer engagement. The company may also benefit from economic factors such as interest rate changes and community growth, which can impact lending demand and deposit levels.

Oceanfirst Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moderate financial quality: the company remains consistently profitable with positive free cash flow, but momentum has weakened with 2025 revenue contracting, margin/ROE compression, and a recent uptick in leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.03).

Income Statement

Revenue growth has cooled materially, moving from strong expansion in 2022–2023 to modest growth in 2024 and a decline in 2025. Profitability also compressed: net margin fell from 16.3% (2023) and 14.5% (2024) to 10.8% (2025), alongside lower operating margins, indicating weaker earnings power versus prior years. Offsetting this, the company remains solidly profitable with consistent positive earnings across the full period.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows moderate leverage for a regional bank, but leverage has risen recently as debt-to-equity increased to ~1.03 in 2025 from ~0.74 in 2024. Equity has been relatively stable while assets have grown, supporting scale, but returns on equity have drifted down (from 6.3% in 2023 to 4.3% in 2025), suggesting pressure on capital efficiency. Overall, the balance sheet looks workable, though the recent leverage uptick and lower returns are notable watch items.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains positive, with free cash flow consistently positive and generally tracking net income well (about 0.92–1.00x in 2023–2025). However, free cash flow has been trending down (negative growth in each of the last three years), and operating cash flow has declined from 2022 levels, pointing to weaker underlying cash momentum. The cash profile is stable, but not improving.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	655.60M	687.95M	636.96M	485.30M	388.84M
Gross Profit	357.19M	372.12M	381.04M	423.83M	363.92M
EBITDA	93.27M	145.20M	153.17M	210.40M	157.12M
Net Income	70.98M	100.06M	104.03M	146.60M	110.08M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.56B	13.42B	13.54B	13.10B	11.74B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.37B	951.12M	907.61M	625.59M	773.20M
Total Debt	1.71B	1.26B	1.05B	1.48B	349.81M
Total Liabilities	12.90B	11.72B	11.88B	11.52B	10.22B
Stockholders Equity	1.66B	1.70B	1.66B	1.58B	1.52B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	75.97M	84.68M	116.55M	229.55M	117.93M
Operating Cash Flow	75.97M	92.24M	124.26M	250.45M	159.97M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.64M	106.40M	-488.00M	-1.32B	-1.48B
Financing Cash Flow	-73.28M	-228.75M	349.47M	1.01B	223.99M

Oceanfirst Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 18.38
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OCFC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.10, below the 50-day MA of 18.66, and above the 200-day MA of 17.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OCFC.

Oceanfirst Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PEBO	74 Outperform	$1.16B	9.84	9.13%	5.30%	0.11%	-18.63%
TMP	72 Outperform	$1.12B	6.42	11.20%	3.39%	9.55%	27.32%
CTBI	72 Outperform	$1.09B	9.33	12.15%	3.44%	9.93%	17.67%
FSUN	72 Outperform	$1.04B	10.56	8.28%	―	4.44%	3.19%
OSBC	68 Neutral	$1.04B	8.92	9.24%	1.24%	10.42%	-18.32%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
OCFC	56 Neutral	$1.06B	19.52	4.77%	4.05%	-2.15%	-25.32%

Oceanfirst Financial Corporate Events

OceanFirst updates investors amid proposed Flushing merger risks

In January 2026, OceanFirst Financial Corp. prepared an investor presentation, tied to its fourth-quarter 2025 results, to be used in meetings with current and prospective investors after January 29, 2026 and to be posted on its website, offering an updated view of its balance sheet, profitability metrics and market footprint. The materials, which include detailed discussion of risks and non-GAAP financial measures, underscore both the bank’s relatively strong asset quality and capital position and the uncertainties surrounding its proposed merger with Flushing Financial Corporation, highlighting potential regulatory, integration, market and operational risks that could influence future performance and outcomes for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (OCFC) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oceanfirst Financial stock, see the OCFC Stock Forecast page.

OceanFirst Financial Reports Mixed Earnings, Declares Quarterly Dividend

On January 22, 2026, OceanFirst Financial Corp. reported that net income available to common stockholders fell to $13.1 million, or $0.23 per diluted share, for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, down from $20.9 million a year earlier and $17.3 million in the prior quarter, while full-year 2025 net income declined to $67.1 million, or $1.17 per diluted share, from $96.0 million, or $1.65 per diluted share, in 2024. Despite weaker GAAP earnings and higher efficiency ratios, core earnings for the fourth quarter rose to $23.5 million, or $0.41 per diluted share, from $22.1 million in the prior-year quarter, supported by a $4.6 million, or 5%, increase in net interest income to $95.3 million and 9% growth in pre-tax, pre-provision income to $33.2 million, indicating that underlying operating performance and balance-sheet-driven income, including loan growth, remain more resilient than headline profit figures suggest. The Board of Directors also declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share, payable on February 13, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 2, 2026, underscoring the company’s commitment to returning capital to investors even as reported profitability moderates year over year.

The most recent analyst rating on (OCFC) stock is a Hold with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oceanfirst Financial stock, see the OCFC Stock Forecast page.

OceanFirst Financial Announces Merger and Capital Investment

On December 29, 2025, OceanFirst Financial Corp., Flushing Financial Corporation and a wholly owned OceanFirst merger subsidiary signed a definitive merger agreement that will combine the two banking organizations in a multi-step transaction, with Flushing first merging into the merger subsidiary, then into OceanFirst, followed by the merger of Flushing Bank into OceanFirst Bank. Each outstanding Flushing common share will be exchanged for 0.85 shares of OceanFirst common stock, subject to customary conditions including regulatory and shareholder approvals, with closing targeted for the second quarter of 2026; governance of the combined company will feature a 17-member board with representation from both institutions, Flushing CEO John R. Buran serving as non‑executive chairman for two years, and OceanFirst retaining Flushing’s Uniondale headquarters as a regional operational hub. Concurrent with the merger agreement, OceanFirst also entered into an investment agreement under which affiliates of Warburg Pincus will inject $225 million through a mix of OceanFirst common stock and a new non‑voting, common‑equivalent stock class, alongside a sizable warrant for additional NVCE shares, providing growth capital, board representation for Warburg, and structured ownership and transfer limitations that are expected to support the balance sheet and capital structure of the enlarged institution.

The most recent analyst rating on (OCFC) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oceanfirst Financial stock, see the OCFC Stock Forecast page.

OceanFirst Announces Flushing Merger and Warburg Capital Investment

On December 29, 2025, OceanFirst Financial Corp. and Flushing Financial Corporation announced they had entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger under which a newly formed OceanFirst subsidiary will merge into Flushing, followed by Flushing’s merger into OceanFirst and, subsequently, the merger of Flushing Bank into OceanFirst Bank, leaving OceanFirst and its national bank as the surviving entities. Concurrently, OceanFirst agreed to a $225 million equity investment from affiliates of Warburg Pincus, involving the issuance of OceanFirst common stock, a new non‑voting, common‑equivalent class of stock, and a seven‑year warrant tied to OceanFirst’s share price, a capital infusion that is expected to support the financing of the Flushing acquisition and could strengthen OceanFirst’s capital base and strategic position in its regional banking markets, with ownership and dilution implications for existing shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (OCFC) stock is a Buy with a $21.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oceanfirst Financial stock, see the OCFC Stock Forecast page.