Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.08B
• Dividend Yield: 3.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 60.99K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.78
• Revenue Growth: 9.55%
• EPS Growth: 27.32%
• Country: US
• Employees: 941
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 14,418,025
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 79,094
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 60,992
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.10
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.79
• P/FCF Ratio: 32.35
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.56
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.91
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.88
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.43
• 1Y Price Target: $87.00
• Price Target Upside: 15.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $89.00 ▲(18.51% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by improved profitability and balance-sheet metrics, tempered by weak 2025 cash flow that raises earnings-quality concerns. Valuation is a clear positive (low P/E and solid dividend), while technicals are moderately supportive but not strongly bullish.

Positive Factors

Improved capital and leverage

Tompkins materially strengthened its capitalization and returns in 2025, with lower leverage and a 17.2% ROE. That stronger capital base supports lending capacity, dividend flexibility and strategic investments over the medium term, reducing financial fragility versus prior years.

Revenue and margin expansion

The bank recorded a meaningful step-up in top-line and operating profitability driven by loan and deposit growth and a wider net interest margin. Higher underlying NII and margin expansion point to strengthened earnings power that can sustainably support core operations and shareholder distributions.

Strategic divestiture boosted liquidity

The sale of its insurance arm is a structural shift that materially increased liquidity and capital. Proceeds plus the balance-sheet reshuffle boost regulatory capital and create dedicated capital to fund bank-focused growth, strategic investments, and return-of-capital policy over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Weak cash generation in 2025

Despite higher accounting profits, cash from operations plunged and free cash flow collapsed, signaling weaker cash conversion. Persistent variability in cash generation could constrain reinvestment and make capital returns more dependent on nonrecurring items, raising long-term sustainability risks.

Earnings driven by one‑time gains

A large portion of 2025 net income came from the TIA disposal, inflating GAAP profits. Reliance on sizeable one-time gains masks core operating performance, meaning future earnings could retract if underlying loan/deposit NII and fees don't maintain the recent improvement.

Profit and leverage volatility

Tompkins has shown material swings in profitability and shifting leverage levels over several years. Such cyclicality reduces predictability of earnings and capital needs, complicating long-term planning and increasing the risk that future shocks could force defensive capital moves or cutbacks.

Tompkins Financial Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tompkins Financial Corporation, a financial holding company, provides commercial and consumer banking, leasing, trust and investment management, financial planning and wealth management, and insurance services. The company operates in three segments: Banking, Insurance, and Wealth Management. It accepts various deposit products, including checking accounts, savings accounts, time deposits, and IRA products, as well as brokered, reciprocal, and municipal money market deposits. The company also offers loans for various business purposes, including real estate financing, construction, equipment financing, accounts receivable financing, and commercial leasing; residential mortgage loans; personal loans; residential real estate loans; home equity loans; commercial and industrial loans; commercial real estate loans; agriculture loans; and consumer loans, such as personal installment loans, direct and indirect automobile financing, and overdraft lines of credit. In addition, it provides letters of credit and sweep accounts; credit and debit cards; and deposit and cash management, internet-based account, remote deposit, safe deposit, voice response, ATM, and mobile and internet banking services. Further, the company offers investment management, trust and estate, and financial and tax planning services; property and casualty, medical, life, disability, and long-term care insurance services; employee benefit consulting services; and insurance planning services. It primarily serves individuals, corporate executives, small business owners, and high net worth individuals. The company operates through a network of 63 banking offices, including 43 offices in New York and 20 offices in Pennsylvania. Tompkins Financial Corporation was founded in 1836 and is headquartered in Ithaca, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Tompkins Financial Corporation generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from interest income earned on loans and investment securities, as well as fees from financial services. The company’s banking operations, which include commercial and consumer lending, contribute significantly to its earnings through interest on loans provided to customers. Additionally, Tompkins derives income from service charges on deposit accounts and fees for wealth management and investment advisory services. Insurance services also play a crucial role in revenue generation, with premiums collected from clients. Strategic partnerships with other financial entities and service providers enhance its offerings and allow for additional revenue opportunities, enabling Tompkins to maintain a diversified income portfolio.

Tompkins Financial Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability rebound and improved leverage/ROE in 2025, but a sharp deterioration in operating and free cash flow despite higher reported profits is a key risk to earnings quality and sustainability.

Income Statement

Profitability rebounded sharply after a weak 2023. Revenue accelerated meaningfully in 2025 (+25.3% YoY) following strong 2024 growth, while net margin expanded to 27.8% in 2025 from 16.4% in 2024 and just 3.1% in 2023. Strengths include the step-up in earnings power and solid recent operating profitability; the key weakness is the clear volatility across the cycle (notably the 2023 drop), which lowers confidence in consistency.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved in 2025, with debt-to-equity falling to 0.70 from 1.11 in 2024, alongside a stronger return on equity of 17.2% in 2025 (up from 9.9% in 2024 and 1.4% in 2023). Total assets continued to grow (to $8.67B in 2025 from $8.11B in 2024). The main positives are the reduced leverage and stronger shareholder returns; the main watch-outs are that debt levels remain meaningful and leverage has been inconsistent year to year.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened materially in 2025: operating cash flow fell to $38.9M (from $95.0M in 2024) and free cash flow declined by 59.0% in 2025. While free cash flow has generally tracked net income closely in most years (roughly in the 0.92–0.96 range in 2020–2024), the sharp 2025 decline introduces concern around sustainability and variability of cash conversion.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	578.94M	431.65M	303.36M	324.74M	316.63M
Gross Profit	435.07M	288.56M	211.18M	300.90M	301.33M
EBITDA	224.86M	92.98M	12.12M	109.71M	114.57M
Net Income	161.07M	70.85M	9.51M	85.03M	89.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.67B	8.11B	7.82B	7.67B	7.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.43B	1.37B	1.50B	1.67B	2.11B
Total Debt	660.01M	790.25M	653.10M	347.58M	190.79M
Total Liabilities	7.73B	7.40B	7.15B	7.05B	7.09B
Stockholders Equity	938.38M	713.44M	668.52M	615.98M	727.53M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	31.95M	88.76M	82.24M	95.17M	116.44M
Operating Cash Flow	38.87M	94.97M	89.00M	103.34M	121.18M
Investing Cash Flow	-300.73M	-250.44M	-146.30M	-8.44M	-583.29M
Financing Cash Flow	260.28M	210.33M	59.00M	-80.17M	136.76M

Tompkins Financial Corporation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 75.10
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 75.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 80.88, below the 50-day MA of 77.64, and above the 200-day MA of 68.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TMP.

Tompkins Financial Corporation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FMBH	73 Outperform	$967.15M	9.84	9.74%	2.43%	3.54%	12.23%
TMP	72 Outperform	$1.08B	6.42	11.20%	3.39%	9.55%	27.32%
CTBI	72 Outperform	$1.08B	10.39	11.96%	3.44%	9.93%	17.67%
BHRB	71 Outperform	$953.41M	7.80	14.60%	3.49%	53.68%	290.47%
OSBC	68 Neutral	$1.03B	8.92	10.11%	1.24%	10.42%	-18.32%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
OCFC	56 Neutral	$1.04B	14.52	4.77%	4.05%	-2.15%	-25.32%

Tompkins Financial Corporation Corporate Events

Tompkins Financial Reports Record Earnings and Declares Dividend

On January 29, 2026, Tompkins Financial Corporation’s board declared a cash dividend of $0.67 per share, payable on February 22, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 13, 2026. In results reported on January 30, 2026, the company posted record fourth-quarter 2025 diluted earnings per share of $6.70 (GAAP) and record operating diluted EPS of $1.78, with quarterly net income surging to $96.2 million from $19.7 million a year earlier; for full-year 2025, diluted EPS rose to $11.24 and net income to $161.1 million, more than doubling 2024 levels. The sharp earnings increase was driven largely by the sale of its insurance subsidiary TIA for about $223 million in cash, generating a $188.2 million pre-tax gain, partly offset by a $78.7 million pre-tax loss on the sale of $564.2 million in low-yield securities that were reinvested at significantly higher yields, a balance sheet restructuring that boosted net interest margin and is expected to enhance securities income over time. Operationally, Tompkins reported solid underlying performance with net interest income up 18.3% for 2025, net interest margin improving to 3.42% in the fourth quarter, loans and deposits each growing just over 7% year-on-year, and regulatory Tier 1 capital strengthening to 10.62%, while higher salaries, benefits, and professional fees reflected deal-related costs and investments to support future growth; the combined effect is a leaner, more capitalized banking-focused franchise with improved profitability metrics and continued capacity to return capital via dividends.

The most recent analyst rating on (TMP) stock is a Buy with a $88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tompkins Financial Corporation stock, see the TMP Stock Forecast page.

Tompkins Financial Updates Executive Retirement Plans

On December 16, 2025, Tompkins Financial Corporation implemented defined contribution supplemental executive retirement plans (DC SERPs) for two executives, Matthew D. Tomazin and Stephen S. Romaine. These plans include annual contributions to their retirement accounts, with specific vesting schedules and interest rates tied to Prime plus 1%. An amendment to Mr. Romaine’s pre-existing supplemental retirement agreement (DB SERP) also adjusts how earnings calculations incorporate senior incentive payments, ensuring a higher payout benchmark. These enhancements are expected to strengthen executive retention and align leadership incentives with company sustainability goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (TMP) stock is a Buy with a $82.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tompkins Financial Corporation stock, see the TMP Stock Forecast page.