First Mid-Illinois Bancshares (FMBH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $983.96M
• Dividend Yield: 2.43%
• Average Volume (3M): 61.24K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: 3.54%
• EPS Growth: 12.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,194
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.99
• Shares Outstanding: 23,993,275
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 63,307
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 61,237
• PEG Ratio: 0.63
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.97
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.71
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.30
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.75
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.12
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.71
• 1Y Price Target: $46.00
• Price Target Upside: 12.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.15
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $418.07M

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $46.00 ▲(12.17% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (rapid revenue growth, solid margins, and improved leverage) and attractive valuation (low P/E with a moderate dividend). These positives are tempered by weaker near-term technicals (below key moving averages and soft momentum) and some uncertainty from cash-flow volatility and upcoming merger integration.

Positive Factors

Revenue acceleration & solid margins

Sustained high revenue growth alongside healthy EBIT and net margins indicates the franchise is expanding its lending and fee businesses while preserving profitability. This durable earnings strength supports reinvestment, capital build, and resilience through economic cycles over the next 2–6 months.

Improved leverage profile

A materially lower debt-to-equity ratio enhances financial flexibility, reduces interest sensitivity, and strengthens regulatory capital positions. This more conservative leverage base supports organic growth and M&A execution without immediately pressuring liquidity or capital adequacy.

Technology upgrades and regional expansion

Modern core and online platforms lower operating costs, improve customer retention and scalability, and support higher deposit/fee growth. Combined with the Two Rivers deal and regulatory approvals, the company gains durable regional scale and cross-sell opportunities in Iowa that strengthen long-term franchise value.

Negative Factors

Volatile free cash flow

Large swings in free cash flow reduce predictability for dividends, buybacks, or opportunistic investments and increase reliance on external funding in weaker years. Persistent volatility raises execution risk for growth initiatives and heightens sensitivity to credit and interest rate cycles.

Sizable absolute debt level

Even with improved leverage ratios, a large absolute debt stock can constrain strategic choices if underwriting or deposit funding tightens. Elevated debt requires steady earnings to service and limits room for aggressive capital deployment during stress or sustained higher funding costs.

Integration and execution risk from M&A

While the acquisition expands footprint, integration risk can erode projected cost saves and distract management. Cultural, systems, and credit-book alignment challenges may pressure near-term margins and ROE, making the merger a persistent execution risk over the coming months.

First Mid-Illinois Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Mid Bancshares, Inc., a financial holding company, provides community banking products and services to commercial, retail, and agricultural customers in the United States. It accepts various deposit products, such as demand deposits, savings accounts, money market deposits, and time deposits. The company's loan products include commercial real estate, commercial and industrial, agricultural and agricultural real estate, residential real estate, and consumer loans; and other loans comprising loans to municipalities to support community projects, such as infrastructure improvements or equipment purchases. It also offers wealth management services, which include estate planning, investment, and farm management and brokerage services for individuals; and employee benefit services for business enterprises. In addition, the company provides property and casualty, senior insurance products, and group medical insurance for businesses; and personal lines insurance to individuals. It operates through a network of 52 banking centers in Illinois and 14 offices in Missouri, as well as a loan production office in Indiana. The company was formerly known as First Mid-Illinois Bancshares, Inc. and changed its name to First Mid Bancshares, Inc. in April 2019. First Mid Bancshares, Inc. was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Mattoon, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

First Mid-Illinois Bancshares generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and investments, as well as non-interest income from fees associated with various banking services. Key revenue streams include interest earned on commercial and consumer loans, mortgage loans, and investment securities. Additionally, the company earns non-interest income from service fees, transaction fees, and wealth management services. Significant partnerships with local businesses and community organizations also enhance its ability to attract customers and increase its market share, contributing to overall earnings.

First Mid-Illinois Bancshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue acceleration and solid profitability (2025 net margin ~20%, EBIT margin ~25%) support a high score, and leverage has improved meaningfully (debt-to-equity down to ~0.57). Offsetting factors are cash-flow volatility (FCF down ~48% in 2025) and only steady (not standout) ROE (~9–10%).

Income Statement

Revenue has accelerated strongly in recent years (2025 up ~67% vs. 2024; 2023 up ~33%), and profitability remains solid with 2025 net margin near 20% and EBIT margin near 25%. That said, margins have compressed versus 2021–2022 levels (when net margin was ~21–25% and EBIT margin ~27–32%), suggesting some pressure from the rate/cost environment despite the higher revenue base.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks reasonable for a regional bank and has improved meaningfully since 2022: debt-to-equity declined to ~0.57 in 2025 from ~1.29 in 2022, supported by rising equity. Returns are steady rather than exceptional (ROE ~9–10% in 2024–2025), and total debt remains sizable (~$551M in 2025), which still limits flexibility if credit costs or funding pressures rise.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive, with free cash flow roughly matching net income across years, indicating earnings are largely translating to cash. However, free cash flow is volatile—down ~48% in 2025 after a strong 2024—and operating cash flow relative to revenue is low, which reduces consistency and makes funding growth less predictable year-to-year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	466.04M	447.28M	381.63M	286.27M	249.66M
Gross Profit	339.30M	313.00M	268.82M	249.85M	219.25M
EBITDA	117.05M	125.17M	103.31M	106.35M	81.24M
Net Income	91.75M	78.90M	68.94M	72.95M	51.49M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.97B	7.52B	7.59B	6.74B	5.99B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.34B	1.19B	1.31B	1.37B	1.59B
Total Debt	551.18M	572.58M	622.94M	816.44M	361.63M
Total Liabilities	7.01B	6.67B	6.79B	6.11B	5.35B
Stockholders Equity	958.69M	846.39M	793.20M	633.15M	633.89M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	63.31M	119.48M	68.78M	60.80M	65.89M
Operating Cash Flow	63.31M	124.42M	72.42M	65.82M	69.60M
Investing Cash Flow	3.65M	-7.51M	474.38M	-178.69M	-482.50M
Financing Cash Flow	-52.88M	-138.76M	-556.17M	96.69M	164.22M

First Mid-Illinois Bancshares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 41.01
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FMBH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 41.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.13, below the 50-day MA of 41.59, and above the 200-day MA of 38.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FMBH.

First Mid-Illinois Bancshares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ESQ	79 Outperform	$864.94M	17.20	19.19%	0.66%	17.98%	14.35%
FMBH	74 Outperform	$983.96M	10.72	9.74%	2.43%	3.54%	12.23%
TMP	72 Outperform	$1.11B	6.83	11.20%	3.39%	9.55%	27.32%
UVSP	70 Outperform	$942.20M	10.71	9.61%	2.59%	4.49%	20.44%
OSBC	68 Neutral	$1.03B	12.14	9.24%	1.24%	10.42%	-18.32%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
SBSI	53 Neutral	$941.67M	13.68	8.53%	4.59%	-4.08%	-16.80%

First Mid-Illinois Bancshares Corporate Events

First Mid-Illinois Moves Forward With Two Rivers Merger

First Mid Bancshares, Inc. and its wholly-owned subsidiary Star Sub LLC entered into a merger agreement on October 29, 2025, to acquire all outstanding shares of Iowa-based Two Rivers Financial Group, Inc. through a business combination in which Two Rivers will merge into Star Sub and cease to exist as a separate entity. On February 24, 2026, Two Rivers stockholders approved the transaction at a special meeting, and, subject to customary closing conditions, the merger is expected to close on February 28, 2026, positioning First Mid to broaden its regional presence and integrate Two Rivers as a wholly-owned subsidiary.

The most recent analyst rating on (FMBH) stock is a Buy with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Mid-Illinois Bancshares stock, see the FMBH Stock Forecast page.

First Mid-Illinois Bancshares Amends Credit Facility for Merger

On February 19, 2026, First Mid Bancshares, Inc. entered into a Tenth Amendment to its Sixth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with The Northern Trust Company, which evidences a $15 million revolving loan facility. Under this amendment, Northern Trust consented to certain matters related to First Mid’s pending merger acquisition of Iowa-based Two Rivers Financial Group, Inc., smoothing a key financing relationship as the transaction progresses.

The credit amendment supports the broader merger process that has been advancing through regulatory and shareholder steps, including a registration statement on Form S-4 declared effective on January 16, 2026, and a final proxy statement/prospectus mailed to Two Rivers shareholders on January 23, 2026. By securing lender consent and moving the proxy process forward, First Mid is positioning itself to integrate Two Rivers’ operations, subject to remaining approvals and closing conditions, which could expand its franchise and competitive footprint in its regional banking markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (FMBH) stock is a Buy with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Mid-Illinois Bancshares stock, see the FMBH Stock Forecast page.

First Mid-Illinois Bancshares secures approvals for Two Rivers merger

On October 29, 2025, First Mid Bancshares, Inc. entered into a merger agreement to acquire 100% of the shares of Two Rivers Financial Group, Inc. via a business combination in which Two Rivers will merge into a newly formed, wholly owned Iowa subsidiary of First Mid, with that subsidiary continuing as the surviving company. The company received regulatory approvals for the merger from the Iowa Division of Banking on December 23, 2025, and from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago on December 30, 2025, clearing key hurdles for the transaction and positioning First Mid to expand its regional banking footprint, with closing expected in the first quarter of 2026 subject to customary conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (FMBH) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Mid-Illinois Bancshares stock, see the FMBH Stock Forecast page.

First Mid-Illinois Bancshares gains key approval for Iowa acquisition

On October 29, 2025, First Mid Bancshares, Inc. entered into a merger agreement to acquire 100% of the shares of Iowa-based Two Rivers Financial Group, Inc. via a business combination in which Two Rivers will merge into a newly formed, wholly owned Iowa subsidiary of First Mid, with that subsidiary remaining as the surviving company. On December 23, 2025, First Mid secured approval for the transaction from the Iowa Division of Banking and is now awaiting approval from the Federal Reserve, with the company expecting, subject to remaining regulatory clearances and customary closing conditions, to complete the deal in the first quarter of 2026, a move that would expand its regional presence and customer base in Iowa and enhance its competitive position among Midwestern community and regional banks.

The most recent analyst rating on (FMBH) stock is a Buy with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Mid-Illinois Bancshares stock, see the FMBH Stock Forecast page.