Old Second Bancorp (OSBC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.08B
• Dividend Yield: 1.24%
• Average Volume (3M): 338.24K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: 10.42%
• EPS Growth: -18.32%
• Country: US
• Employees: 877
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.54
• Shares Outstanding: 52,669,224
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 310,798
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 338,243
• PEG Ratio: -0.93
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.59
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.74
• 1Y Price Target: $23.50
• Price Target Upside: 14.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $21.50 ▲(4.52% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/29/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/29/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (improved leverage and continued profitability) and a favorable earnings outlook (NIM expected to stay >5% with improving capital), tempered by margin/cash-flow pressure and credit/funding headwinds. Technicals are currently weak-to-neutral, while valuation is reasonable and the buyback authorization provides an additional, smaller positive.

Positive Factors

Capital and Balance Sheet Strength

Substantial regulatory and tangible capital cushions reduce insolvency risk and support continued lending and strategic actions. Improved leverage (debt/equity down) increases financial flexibility to absorb losses, fund organic growth, and pursue buybacks or M&A without immediate capital raises.

High Net Interest Margin Sustainability

A >5% NIM is a durable earnings engine in a regional bank model, supporting core profitability even if yields normalize. Sustained margin strength allows earnings resilience, funds loan growth and provisioning, and offsets modest noninterest income volatility over the medium term.

Loan Origination Momentum and Revenue Growth

Consistent loan production and a growing pipeline signal durable organic revenue expansion driven by core franchise lending. Mid-single-digit loan growth supports interest income upside, leverages existing branch and commercial relationships, and reduces reliance on volatile non-core revenue.

Negative Factors

Credit Concentration: Powersports Portfolio

Material charge-offs concentrated in a single product vertical create sustained credit volatility and higher provisioning needs. Concentration risk can erode earnings and capital if performance remains weak, and may require tighter underwriting or higher loan-loss reserves for multiple quarters.

Wholesale/Acquisition-Era Deposit Runoff Risk

Replacing a large tranche of wholesale, brokered deposits is a multi-quarter structural funding task. If replacement favors higher-cost retail or market funding, net interest margin and liquidity buffers could be pressured, constraining loan growth or forcing asset repricing.

Weaker Cash Generation and Margin Compression

Declining FCF and compressing operating margins indicate persistent efficiency challenges that reduce reinvestment capacity. Lower ROE and cash conversion constrain ability to fund growth, absorb credit stress, or sustain buybacks/dividends without pressuring capital over the medium term.

Old Second Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Old Second Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Old Second National Bank that provides community banking services. It provides demand, NOW, money market, savings, time deposit, individual retirement, and checking accounts, as well as certificate of deposit accounts. The company also offers commercial loans; lease financing receivables; commercial real estate loans; construction loans; residential real estate loans, such as residential first mortgage and second mortgage loans; home equity line of credit; consumer loans, including motor vehicle, home improvement, and signature loans; installment and agricultural loans; residential mortgages; and overdraft checking. Further, it provides safe deposit services; trust and wealth management services; and money orders, cashier's checks, foreign currency, direct deposits, discount brokerage, debit and credit cards, and other services, as well as acquires the U.S. treasury notes and bonds. In addition, the company offers online and mobile banking; corporate cash management products, including remote and mobile deposits capture, investment sweep accounts, zero balance accounts, automated tax payments, automatic teller machines access, telephone banking, lockbox accounts, automated clearing house transactions, account reconciliation, controlled disbursement, detail and general information reporting, foreign and domestic wire transfers, and vault services for currency and coin; and investment, agency, and custodial services for individual, corporate, and not-for-profit clients. It operates through 63 banking centers in Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Kane, Kendall, LaSalle, and Will counties in Illinois. Old Second Bancorp, Inc. was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Aurora, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Old Second Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and investments, as well as non-interest income from service charges and fees. Key revenue streams include interest earned from personal loans, commercial loans, and mortgage loans, which are funded by customer deposits. The bank also earns fees from various services, such as ATM transactions, account maintenance, and wealth management services. Additionally, OSBC may generate income through investment activities and by managing assets for clients. The company's financial performance is influenced by factors such as interest rate changes, loan demand, and regulatory environment. Partnerships with local businesses and community organizations further enhance its service offerings and customer base.

Old Second Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid overall fundamentals: consistent revenue growth and improved leverage (debt-to-equity down to 0.33) support stability. Offsetting this, profitability metrics show pressure (sharp decline in gross/EBITDA margins; ROE down to 9.57%) and free cash flow declined (~9% TTM), indicating weaker operating efficiency and cash generation.

Income Statement

Old Second Bancorp has shown consistent revenue growth with a TTM revenue growth rate of 5.59%. The gross profit margin has decreased significantly from 79.47% in 2024 to 19.13% in the TTM period, indicating increased costs or reduced pricing power. However, the net profit margin remains strong at 19.81% in the TTM period, reflecting effective cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, suggesting potential challenges in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.33 in the TTM period from 0.89 in 2023, indicating a stronger equity position relative to debt. Return on equity has decreased to 9.57% in the TTM period, which is lower than previous years, suggesting a decline in profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio remains stable, reflecting a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has decreased by 9.28% in the TTM period, indicating potential challenges in generating cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.57, showing moderate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.98, suggesting efficient cash conversion from profits.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	396.97M	336.17M	321.03M	255.24M	141.89M
Gross Profit	310.20M	267.15M	264.49M	238.37M	129.11M
EBITDA	120.83M	122.12M	132.11M	98.43M	31.66M
Net Income	80.31M	85.26M	91.73M	67.41M	20.04M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.90B	5.65B	5.72B	5.89B	6.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	196.38M	1.26B	1.29B	1.65B	2.45B
Total Debt	338.92M	141.90M	516.63M	260.81M	198.88M
Total Liabilities	6.01B	4.98B	5.15B	5.43B	5.71B
Stockholders Equity	896.77M	671.03M	577.28M	461.14M	502.03M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	120.75M	104.03M	93.01M	29.01M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	131.53M	116.40M	97.34M	31.05M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	322.70M	161.56M	-432.78M	132.92M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-455.05M	-292.99M	-301.50M	258.24M

Old Second Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 20.57
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OSBC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.37, above the 50-day MA of 20.27, and above the 200-day MA of 18.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OSBC.

Old Second Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ESQ	79 Outperform	$924.56M	18.39	19.19%	0.66%	17.98%	14.35%
TMP	77 Outperform	$1.19B	7.36	11.20%	3.39%	9.55%	27.32%
FMBH	75 Outperform	$1.04B	11.35	9.74%	2.43%	3.54%	12.23%
OSBC	72 Outperform	$1.08B	12.68	9.24%	1.24%	10.42%	-18.32%
SBSI	70 Outperform	$989.18M	14.37	8.53%	4.59%	-4.08%	-16.80%
UVSP	70 Outperform	$1.00B	11.25	9.61%	2.59%	4.49%	20.44%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Old Second Bancorp Corporate Events

Old Second Bancorp Announces $43.9 Million Share Buyback

On January 27, 2026, Old Second Bancorp, Inc. reported that its Board of Directors had authorized a share repurchase program of up to $43.9 million of the company’s common stock, following a January 8, 2026 non-objection letter from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The buybacks may be executed via open market purchases, SEC-compliant trading plans, privately negotiated transactions, or other methods, and the timing, volume, and pricing will be determined by management subject to market conditions, economic factors, and legal and regulatory requirements. The company emphasized that it is not obligated to repurchase any shares, the program can be initiated, suspended, or restarted at any time, and any repurchases after December 31, 2026 would need further non-objection or approval from the Federal Reserve, underscoring its capital management flexibility and regulatory oversight considerations for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (OSBC) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old Second Bancorp stock, see the OSBC Stock Forecast page.