Harley-Davidson (HOG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.08B
• Dividend Yield: 2.8%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.54M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: -15.99%
• EPS Growth: -6.76%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Recreational Vehicles
• EPS (TTM): 3.10
• Shares Outstanding: 121,552,830
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,211,641
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,537,367
• PEG Ratio: -0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.25
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.76
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.61
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.32
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.29
• 1Y Price Target: $32.67
• Price Target Upside: 22.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $29.00 ▲(8.70% Upside)

Harley-Davidson's overall stock score reflects a combination of strong valuation and strategic initiatives, offset by bearish technical indicators and financial challenges. The company's profitability and cash management are strengths, but high leverage and declining revenue growth pose risks. The earnings call provided a balanced view of strategic successes and ongoing challenges.

Positive Factors

Strategic Partnership

The strategic partnership transforms Harley-Davidson Financial Services into a capital-light model, enhancing cash flow and financial flexibility, which supports long-term growth and stability.

Market Share Expansion

An increase in market share within the large cruiser category indicates strong brand positioning and competitive advantage, supporting sustained revenue growth.

Cash Generation Ability

A strong cash flow relative to net income suggests effective cash generation, providing financial stability and the ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Growth

A decline in revenue growth indicates potential challenges in market demand or competitive pressures, which could impact long-term profitability and market position.

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth and manage economic downturns effectively.

Global Retail Decline

A decline in global retail sales reflects challenges in consumer demand and market conditions, which may affect the company's revenue and growth prospects.

Harley-Davidson Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is a renowned American motorcycle manufacturer established in 1903, known for its iconic heavyweight motorcycles designed for cruising on highways. The company operates primarily in two segments: Motorcycles and Related Products, which includes the manufacturing and sale of motorcycles, parts, accessories, and merchandise. Harley-Davidson's brand is synonymous with freedom and rebellion, catering to a dedicated customer base that values the lifestyle associated with motorcycle riding.

How the Company Makes Money

Harley-Davidson generates revenue through multiple streams. The primary source is the sale of motorcycles, which includes a range of models from touring to sport bikes. In addition to motorcycle sales, the company earns significant income from the sale of parts, accessories, and general merchandise, which includes clothing and collectibles that enhance the riding experience. Another key revenue stream comes from financial services, including motorcycle financing and insurance products. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with various organizations, which can lead to collaborative marketing efforts and expanded distribution channels, further bolstering its revenue. Seasonal promotions and events, such as the annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, also contribute to increased sales and brand visibility.

Harley-Davidson Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Harley-Davidson's financial statements present a mixed picture. The income statement shows strong profitability despite declining revenue growth. The balance sheet highlights high leverage, which poses a risk, but also demonstrates effective equity utilization. The cash flow statement indicates solid cash generation, although recent free cash flow growth has declined. Overall, the company exhibits strengths in profitability and cash management, but faces challenges with revenue growth and leverage.

Income Statement

Harley-Davidson's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -1.72%. However, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin of 29% and a net profit margin of 11.4% in the latest annual report. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively stable, suggesting operational efficiency. Despite the revenue decline, profitability remains a strength.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk. However, the return on equity is strong at 20.8% in the TTM period, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is low, suggesting a reliance on debt financing. Overall, the balance sheet shows potential risks due to high leverage but also highlights effective equity utilization.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals a decline in free cash flow growth, with a significant drop of -52.29% in the TTM period. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains healthy, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also strong, suggesting efficient cash management. Despite the recent decline, cash flow metrics indicate solid cash generation capabilities.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.40B	5.19B	5.84B	5.76B	5.34B	4.05B
Gross Profit	1.27B	1.81B	2.18B	2.13B	1.90B	1.37B
EBITDA	654.88M	708.56M	1.06B	1.11B	1.02B	201.11M
Net Income	501.15M	455.36M	706.59M	741.41M	650.02M	1.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.57B	11.88B	12.14B	11.49B	11.05B	12.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.83B	1.59B	1.53B	1.43B	1.87B	3.26B
Total Debt	5.16B	7.03B	7.20B	6.96B	6.94B	9.03B
Total Liabilities	7.01B	8.72B	8.89B	8.59B	8.50B	10.29B
Stockholders Equity	3.56B	3.17B	3.25B	2.90B	2.55B	1.72B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	391.85M	867.27M	547.48M	396.79M	855.52M	1.05B
Operating Cash Flow	550.08M	1.06B	754.89M	548.46M	975.70M	1.18B
Investing Cash Flow	308.32M	-383.33M	-512.30M	-773.01M	-459.45M	-66.78M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.43B	-572.32M	-174.65M	-201.97M	-1.88B	1.37B

Harley-Davidson Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 26.68
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 26.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.73, below the 50-day MA of 28.05, and above the 200-day MA of 25.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HOG.

Harley-Davidson Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LCII	74 Outperform	$2.67B	15.42	12.89%	4.16%	5.74%	39.40%
WGO	69 Neutral	$1.02B	39.79	2.06%	3.78%	-5.90%	119.79%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
HOG	61 Neutral	$3.08B	6.15	14.31%	2.80%	-15.99%	-6.76%
PII	61 Neutral	$3.60B	―	-12.15%	4.04%	-9.39%	-173.86%
THO	61 Neutral	$5.39B	21.13	6.19%	1.94%	-4.62%	-2.29%
BC	56 Neutral	$4.18B	―	-12.31%	2.63%	-4.78%	-189.89%

Harley-Davidson Corporate Events

Harley-Davidson Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

Harley-Davidson, Inc. is a renowned manufacturer of motorcycles and related products, operating primarily in the automotive sector, with a unique focus on delivering a distinctive motorcycle lifestyle and experience. The company also has a significant presence in financial services and electric motorcycles through its subsidiaries.

Harley-Davidson Updates By-Laws for Governance Modernization

On September 23, 2025, Harley-Davidson‘s Board of Directors adopted amendments to the company’s by-laws to align with the SEC’s universal proxy rules and update shareholder meeting procedures. These changes include new disclosure requirements for shareholder nominations, enhanced information for special meeting requests, and exclusive forum provisions for legal actions, reflecting a modernization of governance practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (HOG) stock is a Buy with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harley-Davidson stock, see the HOG Stock Forecast page.

Harley-Davidson Announces Strategic Partnership with KKR and PIMCO

On August 11, 2025, Harley-Davidson announced a significant transaction involving its financial services arm, Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). The company has entered into a strategic partnership with KKR and PIMCO, selling a 4.9% equity interest to each, and plans to sell two-thirds of its future retail loan originations annually for five years. This move is expected to unlock $1.25 billion in discretionary cash, reduce debt, and transform HDFS into a capital-light model. The transaction aims to enhance shareholder value, improve funding options, and maintain service levels, with the transaction expected to close in the second half of 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (HOG) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harley-Davidson stock, see the HOG Stock Forecast page.

Harley-Davidson Sells Motorcycle Notes to KKR, Cavendish

On July 30, 2025, Harley-Davidson Credit Corp., a subsidiary of Harley-Davidson, Inc., entered into agreements to sell a portion of its motorcycle promissory notes and security agreements portfolio to KKR Morrow Trust and Cavendish LLC. The transaction, expected to close by January 31, 2026, is anticipated to generate approximately $4 billion in net cash proceeds for Harley-Davidson Credit Corp. Additionally, Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Inc. agreed to issue Class A Common Stock to KKR Morrow OpCo Aggregator LLC and Cavendish, resulting in a total issuance of 9.8% of the Common Stock. These strategic moves are likely to impact Harley-Davidson’s financial operations and market positioning by providing liquidity and potentially altering its financial structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (HOG) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harley-Davidson stock, see the HOG Stock Forecast page.