Harley-Davidson (HOG)
NYSE:HOG
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Harley-Davidson
(NYSE:HOG)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$19.50
▼(-8.58% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/07/26
The score is held back primarily by mixed financial performance (high historical leverage and recent profitability/cash-flow deterioration) and weak technicals (below key moving averages with bearish MACD). Valuation is a bright spot with a low P/E and ~3.8% dividend yield, but the latest earnings call reinforces near-term pressure from tariffs, lower volumes, and transition-year guidance.
Positive Factors
Brand & Dealer Network
Harley’s enduring brand equity and independent dealer network underpin recurring parts, accessories and merchandise revenue tied to an installed base. A deliberate product and brand reorientation toward customization and accessible price points supports customer retention and aftermarket margin durability across cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage & Balance-Sheet Uncertainty
Historically high leverage constrained flexibility in this cyclical industry, amplifying downside during volume declines. The anomalous 2025 debt reporting reduces confidence in balance-sheet transparency, making assessment of debt servicing capacity and long-term capital allocation more uncertain for investors and creditors.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Brand & Dealer Network
Harley’s enduring brand equity and independent dealer network underpin recurring parts, accessories and merchandise revenue tied to an installed base. A deliberate product and brand reorientation toward customization and accessible price points supports customer retention and aftermarket margin durability across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Harley-Davidson (HOG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.39B
Dividend Yield3.47%
Average Volume (3M)3.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.3
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth-15.99%
EPS Growth-6.76%
CountryUS
Employees5,900
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Recreational Vehicles
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.44
Shares Outstanding111,850,560
10 Day Avg. Volume3,236,787
30 Day Avg. Volume3,742,867
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.39
Price to Book (P/B)0.78
Price to Sales (P/S)0.55
P/FCF Ratio5.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.55
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.17
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.00Price Target Upside-6.24% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.74B
Harley-Davidson Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells Harley-Davidson ...
How the Company Makes Money
Harley-Davidson generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source is the sale of motorcycles, which includes both new and used models. The company also earns significant income from the sale of parts and accessories, apparel, and b...
Harley-Davidson Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call outlines decisive management actions and several operational positives — notably significant dealer inventory reduction, HDFS’s record full-year operating income and a stronger cash position — and a clear strategic reset with targeted cost savings. However, those positives are outweighed by substantial near-term financial deterioration: sharp revenue declines, Q4 consolidated operating losses, EPS deterioration, margin pressure from tariffs and lower volumes, and continued regional retail softness. Management expects 2026 to be a transition year with margins under pressure while inventory is rebalanced and the strategy is finalized.Positive Updates
Dealer Inventory Reduction Exceeds Target
Global dealer inventory declined 17% year-over-year (end of Q4 vs prior year), exceeding the 10% reduction target; North America dealer inventory down 16% and international dealer inventory down ~20% (regions between -19% to -23%), improving dealer health and positioning for 2026 riding season.
Negative Updates
Sharp Q4 and Full-Year Revenue Declines
Consolidated revenue in Q4 fell 28% (HDMC revenue down 10%, HDFS down 59%). Full-year consolidated revenue was $4.5 billion, down 14% versus prior year. HDMC full-year revenue fell 13% to $3.6 billion.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Dealer Inventory Reduction Exceeds Target
Global dealer inventory declined 17% year-over-year (end of Q4 vs prior year), exceeding the 10% reduction target; North America dealer inventory down 16% and international dealer inventory down ~20% (regions between -19% to -23%), improving dealer health and positioning for 2026 riding season.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Harley‑Davidson’s 2026 guidance calls for HDMC retail and wholesale shipments of 130,000–135,000 units (expected to be largely one‑for‑one), with production deliberately run below wholesale (creating near‑term operating deleverage) and a cadence of wholesale slightly down in Q1, picking up into early Q2, modestly lower in Q3 and more back‑loaded into H2/Q4; HDMC operating income guidance is +$10 million to −$40 million, HDFS operating income is $45–$60 million (with management saying long‑run HDFS earnings could be roughly 3x the 2026 midpoint over ~2.5–3 years), and LiveWire is forecast to lose $70–$80 million; tariff headwinds are expected to be $75–$105 million in 2026 (vs. $67 million in 2025), dealer inventory finished Q4 down 17% year‑over‑year (North America −16%, International −20%, regions −19% to −23%), the company shipped ~125,000 motorcycles in 2025 (−16% YoY), and management expects at least $150 million of annual run‑rate savings by 2027 while taking a measured approach to share repurchases as it finalizes its May strategic plan.Harley-Davidson Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.47B | 5.19B | 5.84B | 5.76B | 5.34B |
| Gross Profit | 1.35B | 1.81B | 2.18B | 2.13B | 1.90B |
| EBITDA | 492.18M | 708.56M | 1.06B | 1.11B | 1.02B |
| Net Income | 338.74M | 455.36M | 706.59M | 741.41M | 650.02M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 8.04B | 11.88B | 12.14B | 11.49B | 11.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.09B | 1.59B | 1.53B | 1.43B | 1.87B |
| Total Debt | 3.05B | 7.03B | 7.20B | 6.96B | 6.94B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.89B | 8.72B | 8.89B | 8.59B | 8.50B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.14B | 3.17B | 3.25B | 2.90B | 2.55B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 415.24M | 867.27M | 547.48M | 396.79M | 855.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 568.92M | 1.06B | 754.89M | 548.46M | 975.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.78B | -383.33M | -512.30M | -773.01M | -459.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.01B | -572.32M | -174.65M | -201.97M | -1.88B |
Harley-Davidson Technical Analysis
Positive
21.33
Price Trends
19.27
Positive
20.52
Positive
23.28
Negative
Market Momentum
0.58
Negative
71.37
Negative
92.25
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.98, above the 50-day MA of 19.27, and below the 200-day MA of 23.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.37 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.25 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HOG.
Harley-Davidson Risk Analysis
Harley-Davidson disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Harley-Davidson reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Harley-Davidson Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $3.07B | 15.99 | 13.76% | 3.72% | 5.74% | 39.40% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $4.99B | -35.47 | -7.80% | 2.27% | -4.78% | -189.89% | |
53 Neutral | $910.16M | 58.59 | 3.39% | 3.42% | 1.38% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $2.39B | 7.26 | 10.26% | 3.47% | -15.99% | -6.76% | |
51 Neutral | $3.04B | ― | -42.42% | 3.99% | -9.39% | -173.86% | |
51 Neutral | $4.16B | 82.80 | 7.01% | 1.94% | 1.43% | 34.76% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HOG
Harley-Davidson
21.33
-1.61
-7.01%
BC
Brunswick
77.02
30.20
64.51%
LCII
LCI Industries
126.91
48.66
62.19%
PII
Polaris
55.38
20.51
58.81%
THO
Thor Industries
79.06
8.45
11.97%
WGO
Winnebago Industries
32.20
-0.04
-0.12%
Harley-Davidson Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Harley-Davidson Plans Measured Share Repurchases Under 10b5-1
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
On its Q4 2025 earnings call held on February 10, 2026, Harley-Davidson said it would take a measured approach to share repurchases while finalizing its strategic plan. In line with that stance, the company intends to adopt a Rule 10b5-1 trading p...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Harley-Davidson Outlines 2026 Outlook Amid Operational Reset
Negative
Feb 10, 2026
Harley-Davidson reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 10, 2026, showing a sharp downturn at its core Motor Company business but record earnings at its finance arm. Consolidated 2025 revenue fell 14% and operating income de...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.