Harley-Davidson (HOG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.09B
• Dividend Yield: 2.83%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.99M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: -17.15%
• EPS Growth: -40.76%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Auto - Recreational Vehicles
• EPS (TTM): 1.07
• Shares Outstanding: 121,487,656
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,683,040
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,989,455
• PEG Ratio: 0.45
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.52
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.77
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.65
• 1Y Price Target: $29.40
• Price Target Upside: 17.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $27.00 ▲(8.09%Upside)

Harley-Davidson's overall stock score reflects a stable financial performance and attractive valuation, which are tempered by a cautious outlook from the recent earnings call and neutral technical indicators. The company's financial health is supported by strong cash management and profitability, but challenges in revenue growth and market conditions pose risks. The stock remains appealing for value investors, albeit with concerns about future sales trends and economic uncertainties.

Positive Factors

Market Position

HOG remains optimistic on the long term health of the motorcycle industry in the U.S. and has seen even recent positive signals including record attendance at Daytona.

Product Lineup

Reintroduction of entry level bikes supports 2026 outlook.

Strategy Changes

HOG making strategy changes to improve long term trajectory.

Negative Factors

Consumer Base Challenges

The overall demand environment remains relatively challenged especially with HOG’s lower income customer cohort who is more sensitive with their discretionary purchases.

Retail Performance

North America retail decreased 24.0% which was below expectations.

Sales Decline

Shipments of 38.6K declined 33% year over year.

Harley-Davidson Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, including installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale protection products comprising motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

How the Company Makes Money

Harley-Davidson makes money primarily through the sale of motorcycles, which is its largest revenue stream. The company manufactures and sells a variety of motorcycle models, catering to different market segments and riding styles. In addition to motorcycle sales, Harley-Davidson generates revenue from the sale of motorcycle parts and accessories, which includes customization options for their bikes as well as maintenance and repair components. The company also earns from the sale of branded apparel and merchandise, which enhances brand loyalty and visibility. Furthermore, Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) contributes to the company's revenue by offering financing solutions for customers purchasing motorcycles, as well as insurance products and extended service contracts. This financial arm supports both retail customers and dealers, facilitating sales and supporting the overall business model.

Harley-Davidson Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Harley-Davidson presents a stable financial performance with strong profitability margins and efficient cash management. However, the company faces challenges with declining revenue and a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating potential risks related to financial leverage. Overall, the company maintains a steady financial position, but future growth will depend on revenue stabilization and managing debt levels.

Income Statement

Harley-Davidson shows a stable income performance with a solid gross profit margin of 34.7% TTM and a net profit margin of 7.4% TTM. However, revenue has been declining in recent years, with a year-over-year decrease from 2023 to 2024. The company's EBIT and EBITDA margins stand at 8.9% and 12.7% TTM, respectively, indicating healthy operational efficiency, although there is room for improvement in revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects moderate financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.31 TTM, suggesting a significant reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio is 25.7% TTM, indicating a stronger equity base compared to previous years. Return on Equity (ROE) is 11.1% TTM, showing decent profitability relative to shareholder equity. The company's financial health is stable but could benefit from reducing its leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.1 TTM, highlighting efficient cash generation from operations. Free cash flow shows strong growth with a 6.2% increase from 2023 to 2024, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.6 TTM. These metrics underscore Harley-Davidson's solid cash management capabilities, providing a healthy buffer for investments or debt servicing.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
4.79B	5.19B	5.84B	5.76B	5.34B	4.05B
	Gross Profit
1.66B	1.81B	1.79B	1.84B	1.88B	1.19B
	EBIT
314.05M	464.06M	779.08M	909.28M	823.44M	9.68M
	EBITDA
596.43M	708.29M	1.06B	1.11B	1.02B	200.74M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
353.52M	455.36M	706.59M	741.41M	650.02M	1.30M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.93B	1.59B	1.53B	1.43B	1.87B	3.26B
	Total Assets
12.38B	11.88B	12.14B	11.49B	11.05B	12.01B
	Total Debt
7.35B	7.03B	7.20B	6.96B	6.94B	8.99B
	Net Debt
5.42B	5.44B	5.66B	5.52B	5.06B	5.73B
	Total Liabilities
9.21B	8.72B	8.89B	8.59B	8.50B	10.29B
	Stockholders Equity
3.18B	3.17B	3.25B	2.90B	2.55B	1.72B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
921.19M	867.27M	547.48M	396.79M	855.52M	1.05B
	Operating Cash Flow
1.10B	1.06B	754.89M	548.46M	975.70M	1.18B
	Investing Cash Flow
-209.44M	-383.33M	-512.30M	-773.01M	-459.45M	-66.78M
	Financing Cash Flow
-396.20M	-572.32M	-174.65M	-201.97M	-1.88B	1.37B

Harley-Davidson Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 24.98
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.58, above the 50-day MA of 23.61, and below the 200-day MA of 29.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.23 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HOG.

Harley-Davidson Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LCII	75 Outperform	$2.33B	15.13	11.44%	4.98%	1.04%	65.90%
THO	73 Outperform	$4.71B	21.27	5.42%	2.26%	-6.41%	-15.85%
HOG	71 Outperform	$3.09B	9.49	10.84%	2.83%	-17.15%	-40.76%
BC	67 Neutral	$3.83B	48.12	5.16%	2.95%	-15.42%	-77.50%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$6.98B	11.41	2.80%	4.24%	2.68%	-24.94%
PII	62 Neutral	$2.39B	59.94	3.09%	6.29%	-17.86%	-89.55%
WGO	62 Neutral	$960.15M	―	-0.45%	3.97%	-12.29%	-105.55%

Harley-Davidson Corporate Events

Harley-Davidson Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at Meeting

On May 14, 2025, Harley-Davidson, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders where several key proposals were voted on. The shareholders elected directors, approved executive compensation, ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent public accounting firm, and approved the 2025 Director Stock Plan. These decisions are pivotal for the company’s governance and financial oversight, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (HOG) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harley-Davidson stock, see the HOG Stock Forecast page.

Harley-Davidson Revises Tariff Cost Estimates After Meeting

Harley-Davidson has revised its estimated costs for incremental tariffs on products between China and the U.S. in 2025, now expecting a $45 million reduction, bringing the total estimated cost to $30-$55 million. This adjustment follows a recent U.S.-China economic meeting, with potential further reductions if tariffs remain lower throughout the year. Additionally, the company is progressing with the HDFS transaction, with plans to finalize details by the third quarter of 2025, pending Board approval.

The most recent analyst rating on (HOG) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harley-Davidson stock, see the HOG Stock Forecast page.