Harley-Davidson (HOG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.49B
• Dividend Yield: 3.47%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.70M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.82
• Revenue Growth: -15.99%
• EPS Growth: -6.76%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Recreational Vehicles
• EPS (TTM): 3.10
• Shares Outstanding: 118,141,860
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,619,872
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,696,691
• PEG Ratio: -0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.25
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.76
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.24
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.32
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.82
• 1Y Price Target: $27.00
• Price Target Upside: 28.27% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.02
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.83B

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $23.50 ▲(11.64% Upside)

Harley-Davidson's overall stock score reflects a balance of strengths and challenges. The company's strong profitability and attractive valuation are significant positives. However, declining revenue growth, high leverage, and bearish technical indicators weigh on the score. Strategic initiatives and cash unlocking from the HDFS transaction provide some optimism, but global retail declines and tariff costs remain concerns.

Positive Factors

Strategic Partnership

The strategic partnership transforms Harley-Davidson Financial Services into a capital-light model, enhancing cash flow and financial flexibility, which supports long-term growth and stability.

Market Share Expansion

An increase in market share within the large cruiser category indicates strong brand positioning and competitive advantage, supporting sustained revenue growth.

Cash Generation Ability

A strong cash flow relative to net income suggests effective cash generation, providing financial stability and the ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Growth

A decline in revenue growth indicates potential challenges in market demand or competitive pressures, which could impact long-term profitability and market position.

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth and manage economic downturns effectively.

Global Retail Decline

A decline in global retail sales reflects challenges in consumer demand and market conditions, which may affect the company's revenue and growth prospects.

Harley-Davidson Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, including installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale protection products comprising motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

How the Company Makes Money

Harley-Davidson generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source is the sale of motorcycles, which includes both new and used models. The company also earns significant income from the sale of parts and accessories, apparel, and branded merchandise, which enhance the riding experience and promote the Harley-Davidson lifestyle. Additionally, the company offers financial services, including motorcycle financing and insurance, contributing to its revenue. Strategic partnerships with dealers and collaborations with other brands help expand its market reach. Seasonal promotions, events, and a strong brand community further drive sales and customer loyalty, impacting the overall earnings of the company.

Harley-Davidson Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Harley-Davidson's financial performance is mixed. Strong profitability is evident with a solid gross profit margin and net profit margin. However, revenue growth is declining, and the balance sheet shows high leverage, posing risks. Cash flow metrics indicate good cash generation, despite a recent decline in free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Harley-Davidson's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -1.72%. However, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin of 29% and a net profit margin of 11.4% in the latest annual report. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively stable, suggesting operational efficiency. Despite the revenue decline, profitability remains a strength.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk. However, the return on equity is strong at 20.8% in the TTM period, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is low, suggesting a reliance on debt financing. Overall, the balance sheet shows potential risks due to high leverage but also highlights effective equity utilization.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals a decline in free cash flow growth, with a significant drop of -52.29% in the TTM period. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains healthy, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also strong, suggesting efficient cash management. Despite the recent decline, cash flow metrics indicate solid cash generation capabilities.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.40B	5.19B	5.84B	5.76B	5.34B	4.05B
Gross Profit	1.27B	1.81B	2.18B	2.13B	1.90B	1.37B
EBITDA	912.27M	708.56M	1.06B	1.11B	1.02B	201.11M
Net Income	501.15M	455.36M	706.59M	741.41M	650.02M	1.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.57B	11.88B	12.14B	11.49B	11.05B	12.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.83B	1.59B	1.53B	1.43B	1.87B	3.26B
Total Debt	5.21B	7.03B	7.20B	6.96B	6.94B	9.03B
Total Liabilities	7.01B	8.72B	8.89B	8.59B	8.50B	10.29B
Stockholders Equity	3.57B	3.17B	3.25B	2.90B	2.55B	1.72B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	391.85M	867.27M	547.48M	396.79M	855.52M	1.05B
Operating Cash Flow	550.08M	1.06B	754.89M	548.46M	975.70M	1.18B
Investing Cash Flow	308.32M	-383.33M	-512.30M	-773.01M	-459.45M	-66.78M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.43B	-572.32M	-174.65M	-201.97M	-1.88B	1.37B

Harley-Davidson Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 21.05
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.97, below the 50-day MA of 22.56, and below the 200-day MA of 24.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HOG.

Harley-Davidson Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LCII	79 Outperform	$3.21B	18.54	12.89%	3.72%	5.74%	39.40%
WGO	75 Outperform	$1.30B	35.75	2.94%	3.42%	1.38%	―
THO	69 Neutral	$6.05B	21.65	6.75%	1.94%	1.43%	34.76%
BC	62 Neutral	$5.73B	-24.50	-12.31%	2.27%	-4.78%	-189.89%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
PII	61 Neutral	$3.97B	-26.66	-12.15%	3.99%	-9.39%	-173.86%
HOG	60 Neutral	$2.49B	5.11	14.31%	3.47%	-15.99%	-6.76%

Harley-Davidson Corporate Events

Harley-Davidson Completes Stock Issuance to KKR and PIMCO

On October 31, 2025, Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Inc. completed the issuance of 9.8% of its Class A Common Stock to KKR Morrow OpCo Aggregator LLC and the PIMCO Entities, marking a significant step in its financial restructuring. Additionally, Harley-Davidson Credit Corp. sold a portion of its motorcycle promissory notes and security agreements portfolio for $4.06 billion, indicating a major financial transaction aimed at optimizing the company’s asset management and financial strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (HOG) stock is a Buy with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harley-Davidson stock, see the HOG Stock Forecast page.