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Harley-Davidson (HOG)
NYSE:HOG
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Harley-Davidson
(NYSE:HOG)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$23.50
▼(-11.92% Downside)
Harley-Davidson's overall stock score reflects a balance of strengths and challenges. The company's strong profitability and attractive valuation are significant positives. However, declining revenue growth, high leverage, and bearish technical indicators weigh on the score. Strategic initiatives and cash unlocking from the HDFS transaction provide some optimism, but global retail declines and tariff costs remain concerns.
Harley-Davidson (HOG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.47B
Dividend Yield3.44%
Average Volume (3M)1.54M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.0
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth-15.99%
EPS Growth-6.76%
CountryUS
Employees5,900
SectorN/A
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAuto - Recreational Vehicles
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.10
Shares Outstanding118,141,860
10 Day Avg. Volume1,211,641
30 Day Avg. Volume1,537,367
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.29
Price to Book (P/B)1.25
Price to Sales (P/S)0.76
P/FCF Ratio4.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.26
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.83
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.32
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.82
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$32.67Price Target Upside22.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Harley-Davidson Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionHarley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is an iconic American motorcycle manufacturer established in 1903, known for its heavyweight motorcycles designed for cruising on highways. The company operates primarily in the motorcycle sector and also offers a range of products and services, including parts, accessories, and apparel, as well as financial services. Harley-Davidson's core product lineup includes various models of motorcycles, such as touring bikes, cruisers, and electric bikes, appealing to a diverse customer base of motorcycle enthusiasts and riders.
How the Company Makes MoneyHarley-Davidson generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source is the sale of motorcycles, which includes both new and used models. The company also earns significant income from the sale of parts and accessories, apparel, and branded merchandise, which enhance the riding experience and promote the Harley-Davidson lifestyle. Additionally, the company offers financial services, including motorcycle financing and insurance, contributing to its revenue. Strategic partnerships with dealers and collaborations with other brands help expand its market reach. Seasonal promotions, events, and a strong brand community further drive sales and customer loyalty, impacting the overall earnings of the company.
Harley-Davidson Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted several strategic initiatives, including the successful transformation of Harley-Davidson Financial Services, which is expected to unlock significant cash. However, the call also revealed challenges such as disappointing results from the Motor Company and global retail declines. While there are positive signs in specific segments and regions, persistent issues like tariff costs and international market challenges weigh heavily.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
HDFS Transaction Success
Harley-Davidson announced a strategic partnership with KKR and PIMCO to transform Harley-Davidson Financial Services into a capital-light derisked business model. This transaction is expected to unlock $1.2 billion to $1.25 billion in discretionary cash by Q1 of 2026.
Global Revenue Growth
Consolidated revenue in the third quarter was up 17%, largely driven by a 23% increase in HDMC revenue. LiveWire revenue also saw a 16% increase.
Softail Family Growth
The Softail family delivered strong growth of 9% in North America, reflecting the strength of the revised product lineup.
Improvement in Latin America
Retail in Latin America was up 16%, with Brazil and Mexico showing significant growth.
Market Share Expansion
In the U.S., market share for Harley-Davidson in the large cruiser category expanded from 61% in Q3 of 2024 to 68% in Q3 of 2025.
Negative Updates
Disappointing Motor Company Results
Motor Company results were disappointing, with operating income down 2% relative to the prior year.
Global Retail Decline
In Q3, global retail was down 6%, with the North American market down 5% and international markets down 9%, reflecting continued soft demand amidst unfavorable consumer confidence, high relative interest rates, and inflation concerns.
Tariff Costs Impact
The cost of new or increased tariffs resulted in $27 million in Q3 and is expected to be in the range of $55 million to $75 million for the full year 2025.
Challenges in EMEA
Retail in EMEA was down 17% after a comparatively strong first half, with core families like Touring, Trike, and Softail experiencing declines.
LiveWire Operating Loss
The LiveWire segment reported an operating loss of $18 million, despite an improvement compared to the previous year.
Company Guidance
In the third quarter of 2025, Harley-Davidson provided guidance focused on several strategic initiatives aimed at improving dealer health and profitability. The company emphasized enhancing motorcycle inventory management, particularly in the touring and CVO segments, to ensure a balanced mix across the network. Harley-Davidson also announced market-responsive customer-facing promotions to drive dealer traffic and boost sales, while exploring e-commerce alternatives with the U.S. Dealer Advisory Council. Additionally, they proposed flexibility in dealer facility guidelines by suspending noncompliance penalties for 12 months. Financially, Harley-Davidson highlighted the strategic value of its Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) unit, which underwent a significant transaction with KKR and PIMCO, expected to unlock $1.2 to $1.25 billion in discretionary cash by Q1 2026. This transaction included the sale of $6 billion in existing HDFS loan receivables and the sale of a 9.8% equity interest to KKR and PIMCO. Overall, Harley-Davidson's focus remains on enhancing dealer relationships, product portfolio diversification, and maintaining strong financial health amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment.Harley-Davidson Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
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Harley-Davidson Technical Analysis
Negative
26.68
Price Trends
24.35
Negative
26.01
Negative
24.86
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.01
Positive
26.33
Positive
9.59
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 26.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.50, above the 50-day MA of 24.35, and above the 200-day MA of 24.86, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.33 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.59 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HOG.
Harley-Davidson Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (―)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ― | ― | ― | ― | ― | ― | ― | |
79 Outperform | $2.99B | 17.25 | 12.89% | 3.72% | 5.74% | 39.40% | |
75 Outperform | $1.20B | 33.19 | 2.94% | 3.42% | 1.38% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $5.60B | 20.07 | 6.75% | 1.94% | 1.43% | 34.76% | |
61 Neutral | $3.86B | -25.27 | -12.15% | 3.90% | -9.39% | -173.86% | |
60 Neutral | $2.47B | 5.03 | 14.31% | 3.44% | -15.99% | -6.76% | |
52 Neutral | $4.98B | -20.91 | -12.31% | 2.25% | -4.78% | -189.89% |
* Sector Average
HOG
Harley-Davidson
20.73
-9.24
-30.83%
BC
Brunswick
75.75
11.59
18.06%
LCII
LCI Industries
123.59
24.54
24.78%
PII
Polaris
68.65
14.55
26.89%
THO
Thor Industries
106.13
12.45
13.29%
WGO
Winnebago Industries
42.79
-3.29
-7.14%
Harley-Davidson Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Harley-Davidson Completes Stock Issuance to KKR and PIMCO
Neutral
Nov 6, 2025
On October 31, 2025, Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Inc. completed the issuance of 9.8% of its Class A Common Stock to KKR Morrow OpCo Aggregator LLC and the PIMCO Entities, marking a significant step in its financial restructuring. Additionally, Harley-Davidson Credit Corp. sold a portion of its motorcycle promissory notes and security agreements portfolio for $4.06 billion, indicating a major financial transaction aimed at optimizing the company’s asset management and financial strategy.
Shareholder MeetingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Harley-Davidson Updates By-Laws for Governance Modernization
Neutral
Sep 29, 2025
On September 23, 2025, Harley-Davidson‘s Board of Directors adopted amendments to the company’s by-laws to align with the SEC’s universal proxy rules and update shareholder meeting procedures. These changes include new disclosure requirements for shareholder nominations, enhanced information for special meeting requests, and exclusive forum provisions for legal actions, reflecting a modernization of governance practices.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.