Harley-Davidson (HOG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.49B
• Dividend Yield: 2.47%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.76M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.88
• Revenue Growth: -24.81%
• EPS Growth: -60.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Recreational Vehicles
• EPS (TTM): 0.88
• Shares Outstanding: 121,552,830
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,890,380
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,762,464
• PEG Ratio: -0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.25
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.76
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.30
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.80
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.34
• 1Y Price Target: $30.40
• Price Target Upside: 5.26% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $30.00 ▲(3.88% Upside)

Harley-Davidson's stock score reflects a balance of strong technical indicators and strategic initiatives against financial challenges. The company's efforts to manage debt and leverage partnerships are promising, but declining revenues and international market challenges remain key risks.

Positive Factors

Strategic Partnerships

The partnership with KKR and PIMCO is expected to unlock $1.25 billion in cash, reduce debt, and transform HDFS into a capital-light model, enhancing shareholder value and financial stability.

New Product Launch

The launch of a small displacement motorcycle priced below $6,000 targets the entry-level segment, potentially expanding market reach and driving future growth.

Cash Generation

Unlocking $1.25 billion in cash provides liquidity to reduce debt and fund strategic initiatives, enhancing financial flexibility and long-term growth potential.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A 19% decline in revenue indicates challenges in demand and market conditions, potentially impacting long-term profitability and market position.

High Leverage

A high debt-to-equity ratio suggests significant leverage, which can strain financial resources and limit strategic flexibility, posing a risk to financial stability.

International Market Challenges

Declining sales in Asia Pacific highlight competitive pressures and economic challenges, potentially limiting growth opportunities in key international markets.

Harley-Davidson Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is a renowned American motorcycle manufacturer established in 1903, known for its iconic heavyweight motorcycles designed for cruising on highways. The company operates primarily in two segments: Motorcycles and Related Products, which includes the manufacturing and sale of motorcycles, parts, accessories, and merchandise. Harley-Davidson's brand is synonymous with freedom and rebellion, catering to a dedicated customer base that values the lifestyle associated with motorcycle riding.

How the Company Makes Money

Harley-Davidson generates revenue through multiple streams. The primary source is the sale of motorcycles, which includes a range of models from touring to sport bikes. In addition to motorcycle sales, the company earns significant income from the sale of parts, accessories, and general merchandise, which includes clothing and collectibles that enhance the riding experience. Another key revenue stream comes from financial services, including motorcycle financing and insurance products. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with various organizations, which can lead to collaborative marketing efforts and expanded distribution channels, further bolstering its revenue. Seasonal promotions and events, such as the annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, also contribute to increased sales and brand visibility.

Harley-Davidson Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Harley-Davidson's financial performance is mixed. Strong profitability margins are offset by declining revenue growth and high leverage. Effective cash flow management provides some stability, but challenges in revenue and equity returns are concerning.

Income Statement

Harley-Davidson's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth at -6.51%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin of 65.53% and a net profit margin of 13.21% in the TTM, suggesting effective cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased compared to previous years, indicating potential operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.22 in the most recent annual report, indicating significant leverage. The return on equity has decreased to 7.42% in the TTM, reflecting reduced profitability on shareholder investments. The equity ratio is not available, but the high leverage poses a risk to financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth at -10.83% in the TTM, which is a negative indicator. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.40 and a strong free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.82 suggest that the company is generating sufficient cash relative to its net income, providing some stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.47B	5.19B	5.84B	5.76B	5.34B	4.05B
Gross Profit	1.43B	1.81B	2.18B	2.13B	1.90B	1.37B
EBITDA	464.05M	708.56M	1.06B	1.11B	1.02B	201.11M
Net Income	242.82M	455.36M	706.59M	741.41M	650.02M	1.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.05B	11.88B	12.14B	11.49B	11.05B	12.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.59B	1.59B	1.53B	1.43B	1.87B	3.26B
Total Debt	6.91B	7.03B	7.20B	6.96B	6.94B	9.03B
Total Liabilities	8.74B	8.72B	8.89B	8.59B	8.50B	10.29B
Stockholders Equity	3.31B	3.17B	3.25B	2.90B	2.55B	1.72B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	821.39M	867.27M	547.48M	396.79M	855.52M	1.05B
Operating Cash Flow	995.68M	1.06B	754.89M	548.46M	975.70M	1.18B
Investing Cash Flow	-76.16M	-383.33M	-512.30M	-773.01M	-459.45M	-66.78M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.17B	-572.32M	-174.65M	-201.97M	-1.88B	1.37B

Harley-Davidson Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 28.88
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 28.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.57, above the 50-day MA of 27.00, and above the 200-day MA of 25.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HOG.

Harley-Davidson Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BC	72 Outperform	4.09B	98.94	0.72%	2.73%	-11.58%	-87.27%
THO	67 Neutral	5.77B	24.54	6.03%	1.84%	-6.41%	-15.85%
HOG	67 Neutral	$3.49B	14.89	7.19%	2.47%	-24.81%	-60.65%
LCII	66 Neutral	2.34B	16.13	10.99%	4.76%	1.36%	25.97%
PII	60 Neutral	3.22B	-30.31	-9.10%	4.67%	-16.63%	-132.70%
WGO	53 Neutral	969.86M	-59.33	-1.41%	3.96%	-9.32%	-120.00%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

Harley-Davidson Corporate Events

Harley-Davidson Announces Strategic Partnership with KKR and PIMCO

On August 11, 2025, Harley-Davidson announced a significant transaction involving its financial services arm, Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). The company has entered into a strategic partnership with KKR and PIMCO, selling a 4.9% equity interest to each, and plans to sell two-thirds of its future retail loan originations annually for five years. This move is expected to unlock $1.25 billion in discretionary cash, reduce debt, and transform HDFS into a capital-light model. The transaction aims to enhance shareholder value, improve funding options, and maintain service levels, with the transaction expected to close in the second half of 2025.

Harley-Davidson Sells Motorcycle Notes to KKR, Cavendish

On July 30, 2025, Harley-Davidson Credit Corp., a subsidiary of Harley-Davidson, Inc., entered into agreements to sell a portion of its motorcycle promissory notes and security agreements portfolio to KKR Morrow Trust and Cavendish LLC. The transaction, expected to close by January 31, 2026, is anticipated to generate approximately $4 billion in net cash proceeds for Harley-Davidson Credit Corp. Additionally, Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Inc. agreed to issue Class A Common Stock to KKR Morrow OpCo Aggregator LLC and Cavendish, resulting in a total issuance of 9.8% of the Common Stock. These strategic moves are likely to impact Harley-Davidson’s financial operations and market positioning by providing liquidity and potentially altering its financial structure.

Harley-Davidson Reports Q2 Revenue Decline and New Partnership

On July 30, 2025, Harley-Davidson announced its second quarter financial results, revealing a challenging commercial environment with a 19% decline in consolidated revenue and a 53% drop in operating income compared to the previous year. The company also reported a strategic partnership between Harley-Davidson Financial Services and KKR and PIMCO, expected to unlock $1.25 billion in cash. This partnership aims to reduce debt and accelerate a $1 billion share buyback program, positioning HDFS to better serve its customers and dealers.