Harley-Davidson (HOG)
NYSE:HOG
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Harley-Davidson
(NYSE:HOG)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$27.00
▲(14.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening operating trends and sharply reduced free cash flow, despite a meaningfully improved balance sheet. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above major moving averages and positive momentum indicators. Valuation is neutral (P/E ~22.4 with a ~2.9% yield), while the latest earnings call was mixed: reaffirmed guidance and a credible cost-savings roadmap, but substantial near-term profitability, cash-flow, and tariff pressure.
Positive Factors
Stronger balance sheet / lower leverage
Leverage has fallen to roughly 0.33x debt-to-equity, materially improving financial flexibility. Lower net leverage reduces interest expense sensitivity, preserves capacity for capex and strategic investment, and provides a buffer while management executes margin and restructuring plans.
Negative Factors
Weak free cash flow and cash conversion
TTM free cash flow collapsed to roughly $44M and operating cash fell to about $199M, signaling a sharp deterioration in cash conversion. Persistent weak FCF constrains reinvestment, limits capital return flexibility, and raises execution risk if margins or volumes fail to recover as planned.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stronger balance sheet / lower leverage
Leverage has fallen to roughly 0.33x debt-to-equity, materially improving financial flexibility. Lower net leverage reduces interest expense sensitivity, preserves capacity for capex and strategic investment, and provides a buffer while management executes margin and restructuring plans.
Read all positive factors
Harley-Davidson (HOG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.44B
Dividend Yield3.47%
Average Volume (3M)3.19M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.4
Beta (1Y)0.84
Revenue Growth-9.82%
EPS Growth-33.48%
CountryUS
Employees5,900
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Recreational Vehicles
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.81
Shares Outstanding105,268,300
10 Day Avg. Volume2,647,448
30 Day Avg. Volume3,191,229
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.39
Price to Book (P/B)0.78
Price to Sales (P/S)0.55
P/FCF Ratio5.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.69
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.32
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.00Price Target Upside2.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.83B
Harley-Davidson Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells Harley-Davidson ...
How the Company Makes Money
Harley-Davidson makes money primarily through (1) selling motorcycles and (2) providing financing and related financial services, with additional revenue from parts, accessories, and branded merchandise.
1) Motorcycles and related products (Harle...
Harley-Davidson Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed mixed results: operational and retail progress (notably a strong U.S. retail quarter, market-share gains, inventory reductions, a refined strategy with cost-savings targets, and ambitious medium-term financial goals) counterbalanced by meaningful near-term financial headwinds (12% consolidated revenue decline, significant drop in HDFS revenue, lower margins driven by tariffs and recalls, higher operating expenses, and negative operating cash flow). The strategic plan and early execution provide a constructive roadmap, but near-term profitability and tariff/cash-flow pressures moderate the tone.Positive Updates
North America and Global Retail Sales Growth
Q1 global retail sales of new motorcycles rose 8% year-over-year to ~34,000 units, driven by North America where retail sales increased 14% YoY (~24,000 motorcycles). U.S. retail sales were up 16% while Canada declined 8%.
Negative Updates
Consolidated Revenue and Operating Income Declines
Consolidated revenue declined 12% YoY in Q1, and consolidated operating income plunged to $23M from $160M a year ago, reflecting weaker overall profitability.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
North America and Global Retail Sales Growth
Q1 global retail sales of new motorcycles rose 8% year-over-year to ~34,000 units, driven by North America where retail sales increased 14% YoY (~24,000 motorcycles). U.S. retail sales were up 16% while Canada declined 8%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Harley‑Davidson reaffirmed 2026 guidance while outlining detailed targets: HDMC retail and wholesale shipments are each expected to be 130,000–135,000 units (largely one‑to‑one), with Q2 and Q4 shipments up vs. prior year and Q3 relatively flat; HDMC operating income guidance is +$10M to −$40M, HDFS $45M–$60M and LiveWire an operating loss of $70M–$80M; incremental tariffs are forecast at $75M–$90M for 2026. Management reiterated a multiyear plan to deliver $350M+ EBITDA in 2027 driven by at least $150M of run‑rate cost savings (vs. 2025) and medium‑term targets of mid‑single‑digit retail unit growth, mid‑single‑digit P&A/AML growth, gross margins approaching ~30%, opex <20% of sales (down from ~25% in 2025) and a 10%–12% EBITDA margin. Q1 context: consolidated revenue down 12%, consolidated operating income $23M (vs. $160M prior), EPS $0.22 (vs. $1.07), HDMC revenue $1.1B with 25.3% gross profit, global retail +8% (~34K units), North America retail +14% (~24K), dealer inventory down 22% YoY, wholesale shipments ~37.3K (−3% YoY), cash $1.8B and operating cash use of $228M.Harley-Davidson Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
42
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.32B | 4.47B | 5.19B | 5.84B | 5.76B | 5.34B |
| Gross Profit | 1.07B | 1.35B | 1.81B | 2.18B | 2.13B | 1.90B |
| EBITDA | 458.04M | 492.18M | 708.56M | 1.06B | 1.11B | 1.02B |
| Net Income | 230.41M | 338.74M | 455.36M | 706.59M | 741.41M | 650.02M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.25B | 8.04B | 11.88B | 12.14B | 11.49B | 11.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.81B | 3.09B | 1.59B | 1.53B | 1.43B | 1.87B |
| Total Debt | 2.20B | 3.05B | 7.03B | 7.20B | 6.96B | 6.94B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.17B | 4.89B | 8.72B | 8.89B | 8.59B | 8.50B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.06B | 3.14B | 3.17B | 3.25B | 2.90B | 2.55B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 43.87M | 415.24M | 867.27M | 547.48M | 396.79M | 855.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 199.37M | 568.92M | 1.06B | 754.89M | 548.46M | 975.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.63B | 3.78B | -383.33M | -512.30M | -773.01M | -459.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.12B | -3.01B | -572.32M | -174.65M | -201.97M | -1.88B |
Harley-Davidson Technical Analysis
Positive
23.49
Price Trends
22.14
Positive
20.96
Positive
23.31
Positive
Market Momentum
0.40
Positive
50.19
Neutral
26.36
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.27, above the 50-day MA of 22.14, and above the 200-day MA of 23.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HOG.
Harley-Davidson Risk Analysis
Harley-Davidson disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Harley-Davidson reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Harley-Davidson Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $2.65B | 14.80 | 14.69% | 3.72% | 9.12% | 34.38% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $5.12B | 57.24 | -8.07% | 2.27% | 8.35% | -271.39% | |
61 Neutral | $3.77B | -16.50 | -45.60% | 3.99% | 4.30% | -1186.05% | |
60 Neutral | $2.44B | 22.45 | 7.04% | 3.47% | -9.82% | -33.48% | |
55 Neutral | $829.60M | 58.59 | 3.39% | 3.42% | 5.81% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $3.97B | 82.80 | 7.01% | 1.94% | 4.59% | 49.09% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HOG
Harley-Davidson
23.73
0.19
0.81%
BC
Brunswick
80.96
32.37
66.62%
LCII
LCI Industries
111.67
27.93
33.35%
PII
Polaris
67.83
31.67
87.61%
THO
Thor Industries
77.01
-0.86
-1.11%
WGO
Winnebago Industries
29.78
-2.54
-7.87%
Harley-Davidson Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Harley-Davidson Plans Measured Share Repurchases Under 10b5-1
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
On its Q4 2025 earnings call held on February 10, 2026, Harley-Davidson said it would take a measured approach to share repurchases while finalizing its strategic plan. In line with that stance, the company intends to adopt a Rule 10b5-1 trading p...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Harley-Davidson Outlines 2026 Outlook Amid Operational Reset
Negative
Feb 10, 2026
Harley-Davidson reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 10, 2026, showing a sharp downturn at its core Motor Company business but record earnings at its finance arm. Consolidated 2025 revenue fell 14% and operating income de...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.