Harley-Davidson (HOG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.30B
• Dividend Yield: 3.47%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: -15.99%
• EPS Growth: -6.76%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Recreational Vehicles
• EPS (TTM): -2.44
• Shares Outstanding: 118,141,860
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,110,718
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,282,729
• PEG Ratio: -0.39
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.55
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.92
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.93
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.79
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.78
• 1Y Price Target: $22.17
• Price Target Upside: 13.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.94
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.73B

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $20.50 ▲(5.34% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/11/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/11/26

The score is held back primarily by weakening near-term financial performance and cautious 2026 guidance, reinforced by bearish technical trends. These risks are partly offset by attractive valuation (low P/E) and a solid dividend yield, but the near-term reset and margin headwinds keep the overall rating near the middle of the range.

Positive Factors

Margin Sustainability

Sustained gross and net margins indicate durable pricing power and operational efficiency in Harley-Davidson's core motorcycle business. High margins provide recurring cash to fund R&D, product refreshes, and dealer support, helping protect profitability through cyclical demand shifts.

HDFS Strategic Cash Unlock

The HDFS transaction materially derisks the balance sheet and generates significant discretionary cash. This structural cash inflow enhances liquidity, enables debt reduction or strategic investments, and improves financial flexibility over the next 2–6 months and beyond.

U.S. Market Share Leadership

Share gains in the large cruiser segment demonstrate durable brand strength, dealer network effectiveness, and customer loyalty. Leading share in a core, high-margin category supports pricing power, parts and accessory sales, and long-term competitive advantage.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Elevated leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises interest exposure, constraining capital allocation and cushioning against demand shocks. Even with solid ROE, a low equity ratio heightens refinancing and operational risk during prolonged softness or rising rates.

Declining Revenue Trends

Material year-over-year revenue declines reflect softer retail demand and pose a challenge to sustaining scale. Persistent top-line contraction can pressure dealer economics, reduce leverage benefits in fixed-cost recovery, and limit reinvestment capacity over the medium term.

Tariff and Cost Headwinds

Ongoing tariff costs are a structural margin headwind that can persist until resolved by policy or supply-chain shifts. These incremental costs erode gross margins or force higher retail prices, reducing competitiveness and complicating long-term margin planning.

Harley-Davidson Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, including installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale protection products comprising motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

How the Company Makes Money

Harley-Davidson generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source is the sale of motorcycles, which includes both new and used models. The company also earns significant income from the sale of parts and accessories, apparel, and branded merchandise, which enhance the riding experience and promote the Harley-Davidson lifestyle. Additionally, the company offers financial services, including motorcycle financing and insurance, contributing to its revenue. Strategic partnerships with dealers and collaborations with other brands help expand its market reach. Seasonal promotions, events, and a strong brand community further drive sales and customer loyalty, impacting the overall earnings of the company.

Harley-Davidson Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and free cash flow have been generally solid historically, but results are cyclical and the balance sheet has carried meaningful leverage. The latest annual snapshot shows weaker revenue/earnings, a sharp drop in operating cash flow vs. the prior year, and an unusual negative EBITDA reading despite positive net income—raising near-term stability and quality-of-earnings concerns.

Income Statement

Profitability was solid from 2021–2024, with healthy gross and net margins and strong earnings power in 2022–2023. However, revenue has been choppy (down in 2020 and 2024, modest growth in 2022–2023) and the 2025 annual data shows a notable step-down in revenue and earnings versus 2024. Also, the 2025 annual EBITDA is negative despite positive EBIT and net income, which raises a quality/consistency flag in the reported figures and adds uncertainty around underlying operating performance.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains the key constraint: debt-to-equity stayed elevated around ~2.2–2.7 in 2021–2024 (and was very high in 2020), which limits flexibility in a cyclical industry. Returns on equity were strong in 2021–2024, indicating the company has been able to generate attractive profits on its capital base, but that return profile is supported by meaningful leverage. The 2025 annual debt level is dramatically lower than prior years, suggesting either a major balance-sheet change or reporting inconsistency versus 2024; until that is reconciled, balance-sheet risk is harder to underwrite confidently.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has generally been a strength, with operating cash flow consistently positive and free cash flow positive every year shown. Free cash flow has typically covered a large portion of net income (roughly ~0.72–0.89 in 2020–2024), supporting earnings quality. That said, cash flow has been volatile (free cash flow declined in 2021 and 2022, rebounded in 2023–2024, then dropped sharply in 2025 versus 2024), and cash flow relative to debt service needs can be pressured given the historically high leverage.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.47B	5.19B	5.84B	5.76B	5.34B
Gross Profit	1.35B	1.81B	2.18B	2.13B	1.90B
EBITDA	492.18M	708.56M	1.06B	1.11B	1.02B
Net Income	338.74M	455.36M	706.59M	741.41M	650.02M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.04B	11.88B	12.14B	11.49B	11.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.09B	1.59B	1.53B	1.43B	1.87B
Total Debt	2.97B	7.03B	7.20B	6.96B	6.94B
Total Liabilities	4.89B	8.72B	8.89B	8.59B	8.50B
Stockholders Equity	3.16B	3.17B	3.25B	2.90B	2.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	415.24M	867.27M	547.48M	396.79M	855.52M
Operating Cash Flow	568.92M	1.06B	754.89M	548.46M	975.70M
Investing Cash Flow	3.78B	-383.33M	-512.30M	-773.01M	-459.45M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.01B	-572.32M	-174.65M	-201.97M	-1.88B

Harley-Davidson Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 19.46
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.46 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.09, below the 50-day MA of 20.60, and below the 200-day MA of 24.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HOG.

Harley-Davidson Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WGO	72 Outperform	$1.24B	34.15	2.94%	3.42%	1.38%	―
THO	69 Neutral	$5.73B	20.43	6.75%	1.94%	1.43%	34.76%
LCII	68 Neutral	$3.42B	18.75	13.70%	3.72%	5.74%	39.40%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
BC	58 Neutral	$5.43B	-39.95	-7.73%	2.27%	-4.78%	-189.89%
HOG	54 Neutral	$2.30B	6.97	10.71%	3.47%	-15.99%	-6.76%
PII	51 Neutral	$3.63B	-7.82	-43.95%	3.99%	-9.39%	-173.86%

Harley-Davidson Corporate Events

Harley-Davidson Outlines 2026 Outlook Amid Operational Reset

Harley-Davidson reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 10, 2026, showing a sharp downturn at its core Motor Company business but record earnings at its finance arm. Consolidated 2025 revenue fell 14% and operating income declined 7%, as HDMC swung to a $29 million operating loss on lower shipments, weaker gross margins driven by tariffs and negative operating leverage, and slightly higher operating expenses.

Fourth-quarter 2025 underscored the pressure on the business, with consolidated revenue down 28%, a deeper $361 million operating loss and a diluted EPS loss of $2.44. Global retail motorcycle sales for 2025 fell 12% to 132,535 units and shipments dropped 16%, though North American retail sales grew 5% in the quarter as management moved to reduce dealer inventory, which ended the year 17% lower than late 2024.

Harley-Davidson Financial Services was a bright spot, delivering record 2025 operating income of $490 million, aided by a strategic transaction with KKR and PIMCO that reduced HDFS debt, lowered capital needs and enabled a $1 billion dividend to the parent. The group returned $434 million to shareholders via buybacks and dividends in 2025, while LiveWire posted a $75 million operating loss in line with expectations.

For 2026, Harley-Davidson projected HDMC retail and wholesale volumes of 130,000 to 135,000 units and an HDMC operating result ranging from a $40 million loss to a $10 million profit, alongside sharply lower HDFS operating income and a LiveWire loss of $70 million to $80 million. The company, which plans $175 million to $200 million in capital investments, framed these targets as part of a broader effort to stabilize operations, realign wholesale with retail demand and reset long-term earnings power ahead of a new strategic plan expected in May 2026.

Separately, on February 9, 2026, board member James Duncan Farley, Jr. informed the company he would not stand for re-election at the upcoming annual meeting, a decision not tied to any dispute over company matters. The board is expected to reduce its size from nine to eight directors following the meeting, signaling a modest governance shift as Harley-Davidson navigates its operational reset.

The most recent analyst rating on (HOG) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harley-Davidson stock, see the HOG Stock Forecast page.