Harley-Davidson (HOG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.67B
• Dividend Yield: 2.33%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.36M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: -24.81%
• EPS Growth: -60.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 83
• Industry: Auto - Recreational Vehicles
• EPS (TTM): 0.88
• Shares Outstanding: 121,552,830
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,557,837
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,361,623
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.19
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.80
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.00
• 1Y Price Target: $29.83
• Price Target Upside: -1.23% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $30.00 ▼(-0.66% Downside)

Harley-Davidson's stock score reflects a balance of strong technical indicators and strategic initiatives against financial challenges. The company's efforts to manage debt and leverage partnerships are promising, but declining revenues and international market challenges remain key risks.

Positive Factors

Financial Strategy

The HDFS transaction unlocks $1.25bn in cash to be used for reducing debt and accelerating its share buyback program.

Long-term Growth

The new HDFS transaction is expected to provide a recurring income stream from serving and origination fees that can grow operating income longer term.

Negative Factors

Earnings Decline

Overall operating income declined 69% driven by declines at HDMC and HDFS.

Leadership Uncertainty

The announced retirement of CEO Jochen Zeitz adds to the uncertainty regarding leadership and future strategic direction.

Market Challenges

Demand trends remain underwater, indicating ongoing challenges for Harley-Davidson.

Harley-Davidson Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, including installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale protection products comprising motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

How the Company Makes Money

Harley-Davidson generates revenue through multiple streams. The primary source is the sale of motorcycles, which includes a range of models from touring to sport bikes. In addition to motorcycle sales, the company earns significant income from the sale of parts, accessories, and general merchandise, which includes clothing and collectibles that enhance the riding experience. Another key revenue stream comes from financial services, including motorcycle financing and insurance products. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with various organizations, which can lead to collaborative marketing efforts and expanded distribution channels, further bolstering its revenue. Seasonal promotions and events, such as the annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, also contribute to increased sales and brand visibility.

Harley-Davidson Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Harley-Davidson's financial performance is mixed. Strong profitability margins are offset by declining revenue growth and high leverage. Effective cash flow management provides stability, but challenges in revenue and equity returns are concerning.

Income Statement

Harley-Davidson's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth at -6.51%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin of 65.53% and a net profit margin of 13.21% in the TTM, suggesting effective cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased compared to previous years, indicating potential operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.22 in the most recent annual report, indicating significant leverage. The return on equity has decreased to 7.42% in the TTM, reflecting reduced profitability on shareholder investments. The equity ratio is not available, but the high leverage poses a risk to financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth at -10.83% in the TTM, which is a negative indicator. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.40 and a strong free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.82 suggest that the company is generating sufficient cash relative to its net income, providing some stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.47B	5.19B	5.84B	5.76B	5.34B	4.05B
Gross Profit	1.43B	1.81B	2.18B	2.13B	1.90B	1.37B
EBITDA	423.63M	708.56M	1.06B	1.11B	1.02B	201.11M
Net Income	242.82M	455.36M	706.59M	741.41M	650.02M	1.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.05B	11.88B	12.14B	11.49B	11.05B	12.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.74B	1.59B	1.53B	1.43B	1.87B	3.26B
Total Debt	6.85B	7.03B	7.20B	6.96B	6.94B	9.03B
Total Liabilities	8.74B	8.72B	8.89B	8.59B	8.50B	10.29B
Stockholders Equity	3.31B	3.17B	3.25B	2.90B	2.55B	1.72B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	821.39M	867.27M	547.48M	396.79M	855.52M	1.05B
Operating Cash Flow	995.68M	1.06B	754.89M	548.46M	975.70M	1.18B
Investing Cash Flow	-76.16M	-383.33M	-512.30M	-773.01M	-459.45M	-66.78M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.17B	-572.32M	-174.65M	-201.97M	-1.88B	1.37B

Harley-Davidson Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 30.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.94, above the 50-day MA of 25.76, and above the 200-day MA of 26.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.16 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.21 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HOG.

Harley-Davidson Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LCII	73 Outperform	$2.56B	17.61	10.95%	4.34%	1.36%	25.97%
BC	72 Outperform	$4.28B	103.51	2.85%	2.57%	-11.58%	-87.27%
THO	69 Neutral	$5.94B	26.81	5.42%	1.78%	-6.41%	-15.85%
HOG	67 Neutral	$3.67B	15.64	7.19%	2.33%	-24.81%	-60.65%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.97B	12.87	-5.29%	2.97%	1.26%	-14.45%
PII	60 Neutral	$3.26B	69.60	-8.54%	4.51%	-16.63%	-132.70%
WGO	54 Neutral	$1.02B	―	-1.35%	3.70%	-9.32%	-120.00%

Harley-Davidson Corporate Events

Harley-Davidson Announces Strategic Partnership with KKR and PIMCO

On August 11, 2025, Harley-Davidson announced a significant transaction involving its financial services arm, Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). The company has entered into a strategic partnership with KKR and PIMCO, selling a 4.9% equity interest to each, and plans to sell two-thirds of its future retail loan originations annually for five years. This move is expected to unlock $1.25 billion in discretionary cash, reduce debt, and transform HDFS into a capital-light model. The transaction aims to enhance shareholder value, improve funding options, and maintain service levels, with the transaction expected to close in the second half of 2025.

Harley-Davidson Sells Motorcycle Notes to KKR, Cavendish

On July 30, 2025, Harley-Davidson Credit Corp., a subsidiary of Harley-Davidson, Inc., entered into agreements to sell a portion of its motorcycle promissory notes and security agreements portfolio to KKR Morrow Trust and Cavendish LLC. The transaction, expected to close by January 31, 2026, is anticipated to generate approximately $4 billion in net cash proceeds for Harley-Davidson Credit Corp. Additionally, Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Inc. agreed to issue Class A Common Stock to KKR Morrow OpCo Aggregator LLC and Cavendish, resulting in a total issuance of 9.8% of the Common Stock. These strategic moves are likely to impact Harley-Davidson’s financial operations and market positioning by providing liquidity and potentially altering its financial structure.

Harley-Davidson Reports Q2 Revenue Decline and New Partnership

On July 30, 2025, Harley-Davidson announced its second quarter financial results, revealing a challenging commercial environment with a 19% decline in consolidated revenue and a 53% drop in operating income compared to the previous year. The company also reported a strategic partnership between Harley-Davidson Financial Services and KKR and PIMCO, expected to unlock $1.25 billion in cash. This partnership aims to reduce debt and accelerate a $1 billion share buyback program, positioning HDFS to better serve its customers and dealers.

Harley-Davidson Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at Meeting

On May 14, 2025, Harley-Davidson, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders where several key proposals were voted on. The shareholders elected directors, approved executive compensation, ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent public accounting firm, and approved the 2025 Director Stock Plan. These decisions are pivotal for the company’s governance and financial oversight, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder confidence.