Winnebago Industries (WGO) AI Stock Analysis

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Winnebago Industries

(NYSE:WGO)

Rating:60Neutral

Price Target:

$34.00

▲(3.22%Upside)

Winnebago Industries faces a challenging environment with declining revenues and profitability impacting its financial performance. The technical analysis suggests a lack of momentum, and the valuation is weakened by a negative P/E ratio. The earnings call highlighted strategic growth areas, but also acknowledged significant economic risks. The company needs to address these challenges to improve its financial health.

Positive Factors

Market Performance

The marine segment is experiencing a better than expected early selling season, indicating strong performance in that area.

Market Position

WGO's strong market position, premium mix, and exposure to secular tailwinds support longer-term recovery.

Product Innovation

Management is focused on getting product and innovation right to maintain share and profitability.

Negative Factors

Consumer Confidence

Guidance was brought down by low single-digit to mid-single-digit figures considering dealer ordering patterns and weakening consumer confidence.

Debt Levels

Leverage ticked up to 4x.

Retail Demand

WGO decided to cut its FY25 guidance due to tepid retail demand and lean dealer inventories.

Winnebago Industries (WGO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$978.65M

Dividend Yield4.05%

Average Volume (3M)473.50K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.06

Revenue Growth-12.29%

EPS Growth-105.55%

CountryUS

Employees5,700

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength68

IndustryAuto - Recreational Vehicles

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.19

Shares Outstanding28,025,372

10 Day Avg. Volume501,420

30 Day Avg. Volume473,501

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-2.36

Price to Book (P/B)0.76

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio12.80

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$44.63

Price Target Upside35.49% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering8

Winnebago Industries Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionWinnebago Industries, Inc. manufactures and sells recreation vehicles and marine products primarily for use in leisure travel and outdoor recreation activities. The company operates in six segments: Grand Design Towables, Winnebago Towables, Winnebago Motorhomes, Newmar motorhomes, Chris-Craft Marine, and Winnebago Specialty Vehicles. It provides towable products that are non-motorized vehicles to be towed by automobiles, pickup trucks, SUVs, or vans for use as temporary living quarters for recreational travel, such as conventional travel trailers, fifth wheels, folding camper trailers, and truck campers under the Winnebago and Grand Design brand names. The company also offers motorhomes, which are self-propelled mobile dwellings used primarily as temporary living quarters during vacation and camping trips, or to support active and mobile lifestyles under the Winnebago and Newmar brand names. In addition, it offers other specialty commercial vehicles for law enforcement command centers, mobile medical clinics, and mobile office spaces; commercial vehicles as bare shells to third-party up fitters; and boats in the recreational powerboat industry under the Chris-Craft and Barletta brand names. Further, the company is involved in the original equipment manufacturing of parts for other manufacturers and commercial vehicles. The company sells its products primarily through independent dealers in the United States, Canada, and internationally. Winnebago Industries, Inc. was incorporated in 1958 and is based in Forest City, Iowa.

How the Company Makes MoneyWinnebago Industries generates revenue primarily through the design, manufacturing, and sale of recreational vehicles and marine products. The company's core revenue streams include the sale of motorhomes, travel trailers, and fifth wheels, as well as related parts and services. Winnebago also earns income from its marine segment through the sale of boats and marine accessories. Significant partnerships with dealer networks help distribute its various products across North America, facilitating sales growth. Additionally, the company invests in innovation and quality to maintain its competitive edge, thereby attracting and retaining a loyal customer base, which contributes to its earnings.

Winnebago Industries Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 27, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: -4.16%|

Next Earnings Date:Jun 18, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted successful product launches and market share gains, particularly in the motorized RV and marine segments, indicating strategic growth. However, this is tempered by a challenging sales environment and macroeconomic uncertainties that have led to a reduction in fiscal year guidance. Despite profitability improvements, elevated warranty expenses and tariff concerns pose ongoing challenges.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Successful Launch of Grand Design's Motorized Division

Grand Design's new motorized division is off to a strong start with the Series M Class C. Initial shipments of the new Lineage Series F Super C Coach are also underway, with a revenue target of $100 million plus for fiscal 2025.

Market Share Gains in Key Segments

Winnebago's market share in motorhomes rose mid-single digits in 2024 versus 2023. Barletta's market share increased 140 basis points to 9.5%, showing significant growth in the pontoon market.

Improvement in Profitability

Gross margin improved 110 basis points sequentially, driven by lower allowances and discounts.

Marine Segment Performance

Revenues for the Marine segment were up due to unit volume and operational efficiencies, despite a reduction in average selling price per unit.

Negative Updates

Challenging Sales Environment

Soft retail and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to create a challenging sales environment, with reduced consumer confidence affecting revenue projections.

Lowered Fiscal Year 2025 Guidance

Winnebago reduced its adjusted EPS guidance to $2.75 to $3.75 per diluted share, down from $3.10 to $4.40, and consolidated revenue forecast to $2.8 billion to $3 billion.

Elevated Warranty Expenses

Increased warranty expenses in the Towables segment due to historical quality issues and addressing broader quality campaigns, impacting margins.

Tariff Concerns

Potential tariff impacts could require price adjustments. The company is exploring alternative suppliers and pricing strategies to mitigate costs.

Company Guidance

During the Winnebago Industries fiscal 2025 second quarter conference call, the company provided guidance reflecting cautious optimism amidst economic challenges. For fiscal year 2025, the company revised its adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $2.75 to $3.75 per diluted share, down from the previous range of $3.10 to $4.40. Consolidated revenue projections were adjusted to between $2.8 billion and $3.0 billion, from an earlier forecast of $2.9 billion to $3.2 billion. The revision was attributed to reduced consumer confidence and sentiment impacting sales expectations. Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as consumer confidence and inflation, as well as potential tariff impacts, were highlighted as significant considerations in the updated guidance. Despite these challenges, Winnebago remains confident in its long-term strategy, supported by new product introductions and a focus on profitability over market share.

Winnebago Industries Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Winnebago Industries demonstrates resilience in a challenging market, with strong equity and cash management. However, declining revenues and profitability pose risks. The company should focus on boosting sales and enhancing operational efficiency to improve future financial performance.

Income Statement

Positive

Winnebago Industries has faced declining revenue and profit margins over the past periods. The TTM data shows a contraction in total revenue and a negative net income, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability. However, the company demonstrated resilience in gross profit margin, which remains relatively stable.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet suggests financial stability, with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio and a positive equity base. The equity ratio is strong, reflecting a solid proportion of assets financed by equity. However, the decrease in cash reserves over time is a concern.

Cash Flow

Positive

The cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow, though it remains positive, indicating efficient cash management despite decreasing revenues. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, suggesting effective operations, but the decline in free cash flow growth rate is a concern.

TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.75B	2.97B	3.49B	4.96B	3.63B	2.36B
	Gross Profit
366.70M	433.50M	586.10M	929.34M	650.36M	312.93M
	EBIT
32.60M	100.20M	300.70M	583.50M	407.42M	113.76M
	EBITDA
72.50M	118.10M	346.60M	609.69M	440.70M	152.84M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-5.70M	13.00M	215.90M	390.60M	281.90M	61.44M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
115.50M	330.90M	309.90M	282.17M	434.56M	292.57M
	Total Assets
2.19B	2.38B	2.43B	2.42B	2.06B	1.71B
	Total Debt
641.50M	741.80M	634.40M	586.28M	555.30M	539.68M
	Net Debt
526.00M	410.90M	324.50M	304.11M	120.74M	247.10M
	Total Liabilities
977.70M	1.11B	1.06B	1.15B	1.01B	886.23M
	Stockholders Equity
1.22B	1.27B	1.37B	1.26B	1.06B	827.47M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
72.30M	98.90M	211.30M	312.65M	192.39M	238.06M
	Operating Cash Flow
112.90M	143.90M	294.50M	400.62M	237.28M	270.43M
	Investing Cash Flow
-35.60M	-45.90M	-170.00M	-315.67M	-33.01M	-293.08M
	Financing Cash Flow
-227.50M	-77.00M	-96.80M	-237.34M	-62.28M	277.79M

Winnebago Industries Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price32.94

Price Trends

50DMA

33.30

Negative

100DMA

37.42

Negative

200DMA

46.38

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.13

Positive

RSI

45.14

Neutral

STOCH

60.04

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WGO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.82, below the 50-day MA of 33.30, and below the 200-day MA of 46.38, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for WGO.

Winnebago Industries Risk Analysis

Winnebago Industries disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Winnebago Industries reported the most risks in the “Production” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Winnebago Industries Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LCII	75 Outperform	$2.23B	14.49	11.44%	5.09%	1.04%	65.90%
THO	73 Outperform	$4.57B	20.63	5.42%	2.30%	-6.41%	-15.85%
HOG	71 Outperform	$2.98B	9.04	10.84%	2.88%	-17.15%	-40.76%
BC	67 Neutral	$3.59B	45.34	5.16%	3.09%	-15.42%	-77.50%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.83B	11.28	2.95%	3.88%	2.70%	-24.56%
PII	62 Neutral	$2.32B	57.42	3.09%	6.49%	-17.86%	-89.55%
WGO	60 Neutral	$978.65M	―	-0.45%	4.05%	-12.29%	-105.55%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

WGO

Winnebago Industries

32.94

-24.94

-43.09%

Brunswick

56.26

-18.95

-25.20%

LCII

LCI Industries

89.19

-10.70

-10.71%

HOG

Harley-Davidson

24.54

-9.01

-26.86%

PII

Polaris

41.05

-32.97

-44.54%

THO

Thor Industries

86.56

-9.31

-9.71%

Winnebago Industries Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Winnebago Industries Strengthens Board with New Appointment

Positive

Jan 8, 2025

Winnebago Industries announced the appointment of Mike Pack, a senior executive from Oshkosh Corporation, to its Board of Directors, following Richard Moss’s retirement. Pack’s financial and manufacturing expertise is expected to support Winnebago’s strategic goals and enhance its leadership in the outdoor recreation industry.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.