tiprankstipranks
Polaris (PII)
NYSE:PII
Want to see PII full AI Analyst Report?

Polaris (PII) AI Stock Analysis

1,019 Followers

Top Page

PII

Polaris

(NYSE:PII)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$78.00
▲(6.79% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/28/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened financial performance (TTM losses, negative returns, and elevated leverage), partially offset by a positive earnings-call update with raised guidance and improving leverage. Technicals are supportive with the stock above major moving averages, while valuation is mixed—an attractive dividend yield but a negative P/E tied to current losses.
Positive Factors
Raised guidance & organic growth
Management upgraded full-year sales to $7.3–$7.5B and reported ~17% organic growth ex‑Indian Motorcycle, reflecting durable end‑market demand and better alignment of shipments to retail. Sustained organic growth supports higher plant utilization, operating leverage and steadier multi‑quarter cash generation.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Leverage rising to ~2.94x debt-to-equity materially reduces balance‑sheet flexibility and increases refinancing and covenant risk if margins slip. High leverage limits capacity to invest in growth or weather prolonged demand weakness, making operational recovery more urgent to restore credit optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Raised guidance & organic growth
Management upgraded full-year sales to $7.3–$7.5B and reported ~17% organic growth ex‑Indian Motorcycle, reflecting durable end‑market demand and better alignment of shipments to retail. Sustained organic growth supports higher plant utilization, operating leverage and steadier multi‑quarter cash generation.
Read all positive factors

Polaris (PII) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Polaris Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Polaris Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in the design, engineering, production, and distribution of powersports vehicles. Its business is structured across three primary segments: Off-Road, On-Road, and Marine. The company's off-road line...
How the Company Makes Money
Polaris primarily makes money by selling powersports vehicles to an independent dealer network (with revenue ultimately driven by consumer retail demand). Key revenue streams include: (1) Vehicle sales: wholesale sales of off-road vehicles, snowmo...

Polaris Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed positive operational momentum: strong organic revenue growth (+17% ex-Indian Motorcycle), margin expansion on an operational basis, EPS and guidance upgrades, improving net leverage and healthier dealer metrics. These gains are reinforced by ORV market-share wins (fifth consecutive quarter), robust commercial demand (data centers/infrastructure), and tangible progress on tariff mitigation and supply-chain localization. Offsetting risks include sizable commodity cost headwinds (~$70M), ongoing tariff exposure (~$215M expected payment), reliance on a $74M one-time tariff refund booked in the quarter, and persistent softness in recreational ORV and mid-/lower-tier marine demand. Management’s decision to raise guidance while remaining cautious reflects confidence in execution but acknowledgment of macro and policy uncertainties.
Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth (Reported and Organic)
Reported sales increased 9% year-over-year; excluding Indian Motorcycle (non-core divestiture), organic sales grew 17% driven by double-digit growth in Powersports and Marine.
Negative Updates
Tariff Headwinds and One-Time Refund Dependence
Q2 included a $74M tariff refund that materially boosted EPS ($0.96). Ongoing tariff expense existed ($32M headwind in the quarter). Company expects to pay ~$215M in tariffs for the year and the remaining refund opportunity (~$40M) is uncertain/timing-dependent and not included in guidance.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Top-Line Growth (Reported and Organic)
Reported sales increased 9% year-over-year; excluding Indian Motorcycle (non-core divestiture), organic sales grew 17% driven by double-digit growth in Powersports and Marine.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Polaris raised full‑year 2026 guidance to $7.3–$7.5 billion in sales (up 2–5% reported; roughly +10% organic excluding Indian Motorcycle versus prior flat–+2% outlook), with adjusted EPS of $3.00–$3.10 (operational adjusted EPS $2.05–$2.15) and adjusted EBITDA margin expected to expand 50–75 basis points (operationally 145–170 bps); they also cited nearly 40% EBITDA incrementals at the high end after stripping Indian Motorcycle, tariffs and commodity effects (Q2 incrementals >32% ex‑Indian). The company booked $74 million of tariff refunds in Q2 (adding $0.96 to adjusted EPS) but did not include an estimated remaining ~$40 million of potential refunds in guidance, expects to pay approximately $215 million of tariffs this year, and is assuming a ~$70 million headwind from higher commodity costs (about 50% of commodity exposure hedged). For the back half they expect second‑half adjusted EPS close to $1.00 (evenly weighted Q3/Q4), Q3 sales up ~4–5% YoY, a flattish retail environment (could be up low‑single‑digits), continued improvement in net leverage to ~2.6x (from 3.6x) and stronger cash‑flow conversion as seasonal working capital unwinds.

Polaris Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financial quality is pressured: profitability deteriorated to a TTM net loss with negative EBITDA margin despite strong TTM revenue growth. Leverage is elevated (debt-to-equity ~2.94) and returns are deeply negative (ROE around -46%), increasing balance-sheet risk. Cash flow remains a relative positive (TTM OCF ~$248M; FCF ~$67M) but has weakened sharply versus 2025 and has been volatile across years.
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue7.45B7.15B7.18B8.93B8.59B7.44B
Gross Profit1.56B1.32B1.40B1.91B1.91B1.70B
EBITDA116.10M-114.00M569.40M1.01B1.07B881.20M
Net Income-260.40M-465.50M110.80M502.80M589.70M493.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.20B4.89B5.53B5.52B5.22B5.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments302.10M138.00M287.80M367.80M324.50M502.30M
Total Debt1.95B1.54B2.20B2.05B2.17B1.89B
Total Liabilities4.36B4.05B4.23B4.10B4.12B3.82B
Stockholders Equity836.50M828.40M1.29B1.42B1.10B1.22B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow66.90M558.10M6.50M513.20M202.00M-4.60M
Operating Cash Flow247.50M741.00M268.20M925.80M508.60M293.70M
Investing Cash Flow-232.60M-139.50M-270.90M-462.00M-324.60M-303.90M
Financing Cash Flow-36.50M-693.00M-59.20M-431.30M-363.20M-107.60M

Polaris Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price73.04
Price Trends
50DMA
69.55
Positive
100DMA
64.61
Positive
200DMA
64.21
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.49
Positive
RSI
48.80
Neutral
STOCH
42.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PII, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 73.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 71.48, above the 50-day MA of 69.55, and above the 200-day MA of 64.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PII.

Polaris Risk Analysis

Polaris disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Polaris reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Polaris Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
67
Neutral
$2.65B12.0715.25%4.45%4.05%44.68%
62
Neutral
$909.13M23.573.13%3.41%3.44%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
61
Neutral
$5.28B-62.35-5.32%2.18%10.46%-305.37%
60
Neutral
$4.07B-15.20-29.22%3.70%8.43%-143.55%
56
Neutral
$2.71B15.726.27%2.88%-5.25%-14.29%
54
Neutral
$4.14B15.976.06%2.71%2.40%18.91%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PII
Polaris
69.77
16.81
31.74%
BC
Brunswick
80.43
21.37
36.19%
LCII
LCI Industries
104.85
7.78
8.01%
HOG
Harley-Davidson
26.09
1.31
5.27%
THO
Thor Industries
79.51
-19.17
-19.42%
WGO
Winnebago Industries
32.05
0.71
2.27%

Polaris Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Polaris Appoints Sealed Air CEO Dustin Semach to Board
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
On June 19, 2026, Polaris appointed Dustin J. Semach, president and CEO of Sealed Air Corporation, to its Board of Directors, with his role announced publicly on June 22, 2026. Semach, who brings more than two decades of experience in finance, str...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Polaris Shareholders Approve Expanded Equity Incentive Plan
Positive
May 1, 2026
At its April 30, 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, Polaris Inc. secured approval to amend and restate its 2024 Omnibus Incentive Plan, nearly doubling the share pool available for equity awards to 8,905,000 shares, which enhances its capacity t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 28, 2026