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Polaris
(NYSE:PII)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$78.00
▲(6.79% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/28/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened financial performance (TTM losses, negative returns, and elevated leverage), partially offset by a positive earnings-call update with raised guidance and improving leverage. Technicals are supportive with the stock above major moving averages, while valuation is mixed—an attractive dividend yield but a negative P/E tied to current losses.
Positive Factors
Raised guidance & organic growth
Management upgraded full-year sales to $7.3–$7.5B and reported ~17% organic growth ex‑Indian Motorcycle, reflecting durable end‑market demand and better alignment of shipments to retail. Sustained organic growth supports higher plant utilization, operating leverage and steadier multi‑quarter cash generation.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Leverage rising to ~2.94x debt-to-equity materially reduces balance‑sheet flexibility and increases refinancing and covenant risk if margins slip. High leverage limits capacity to invest in growth or weather prolonged demand weakness, making operational recovery more urgent to restore credit optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Raised guidance & organic growth
Management upgraded full-year sales to $7.3–$7.5B and reported ~17% organic growth ex‑Indian Motorcycle, reflecting durable end‑market demand and better alignment of shipments to retail. Sustained organic growth supports higher plant utilization, operating leverage and steadier multi‑quarter cash generation.
Read all positive factors
Polaris (PII) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.07B
Dividend Yield3.87%
Average Volume (3M)804.25K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.07
Revenue Growth8.43%
EPS Growth-143.55%
CountryUS
Employees14,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Recreational Vehicles
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.59
Shares Outstanding56,903,522
10 Day Avg. Volume676,999
30 Day Avg. Volume804,250
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)4.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.50
P/FCF Ratio6.45
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$71.75Price Target Upside-1.77% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)2.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.41B
Polaris Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Polaris Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in the design, engineering, production, and distribution of powersports vehicles. Its business is structured across three primary segments: Off-Road, On-Road, and Marine. The company's off-road line...
How the Company Makes Money
Polaris primarily makes money by selling powersports vehicles to an independent dealer network (with revenue ultimately driven by consumer retail demand). Key revenue streams include: (1) Vehicle sales: wholesale sales of off-road vehicles, snowmo...
Polaris Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed positive operational momentum: strong organic revenue growth (+17% ex-Indian Motorcycle), margin expansion on an operational basis, EPS and guidance upgrades, improving net leverage and healthier dealer metrics. These gains are reinforced by ORV market-share wins (fifth consecutive quarter), robust commercial demand (data centers/infrastructure), and tangible progress on tariff mitigation and supply-chain localization. Offsetting risks include sizable commodity cost headwinds (~$70M), ongoing tariff exposure (~$215M expected payment), reliance on a $74M one-time tariff refund booked in the quarter, and persistent softness in recreational ORV and mid-/lower-tier marine demand. Management’s decision to raise guidance while remaining cautious reflects confidence in execution but acknowledgment of macro and policy uncertainties.Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth (Reported and Organic)
Reported sales increased 9% year-over-year; excluding Indian Motorcycle (non-core divestiture), organic sales grew 17% driven by double-digit growth in Powersports and Marine.
Negative Updates
Tariff Headwinds and One-Time Refund Dependence
Q2 included a $74M tariff refund that materially boosted EPS ($0.96). Ongoing tariff expense existed ($32M headwind in the quarter). Company expects to pay ~$215M in tariffs for the year and the remaining refund opportunity (~$40M) is uncertain/timing-dependent and not included in guidance.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Growth (Reported and Organic)
Reported sales increased 9% year-over-year; excluding Indian Motorcycle (non-core divestiture), organic sales grew 17% driven by double-digit growth in Powersports and Marine.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Polaris raised full‑year 2026 guidance to $7.3–$7.5 billion in sales (up 2–5% reported; roughly +10% organic excluding Indian Motorcycle versus prior flat–+2% outlook), with adjusted EPS of $3.00–$3.10 (operational adjusted EPS $2.05–$2.15) and adjusted EBITDA margin expected to expand 50–75 basis points (operationally 145–170 bps); they also cited nearly 40% EBITDA incrementals at the high end after stripping Indian Motorcycle, tariffs and commodity effects (Q2 incrementals >32% ex‑Indian). The company booked $74 million of tariff refunds in Q2 (adding $0.96 to adjusted EPS) but did not include an estimated remaining ~$40 million of potential refunds in guidance, expects to pay approximately $215 million of tariffs this year, and is assuming a ~$70 million headwind from higher commodity costs (about 50% of commodity exposure hedged). For the back half they expect second‑half adjusted EPS close to $1.00 (evenly weighted Q3/Q4), Q3 sales up ~4–5% YoY, a flattish retail environment (could be up low‑single‑digits), continued improvement in net leverage to ~2.6x (from 3.6x) and stronger cash‑flow conversion as seasonal working capital unwinds.Polaris Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.45B | 7.15B | 7.18B | 8.93B | 8.59B | 7.44B |
| Gross Profit | 1.56B | 1.32B | 1.40B | 1.91B | 1.91B | 1.70B |
| EBITDA | 116.10M | -114.00M | 569.40M | 1.01B | 1.07B | 881.20M |
| Net Income | -260.40M | -465.50M | 110.80M | 502.80M | 589.70M | 493.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.20B | 4.89B | 5.53B | 5.52B | 5.22B | 5.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 302.10M | 138.00M | 287.80M | 367.80M | 324.50M | 502.30M |
| Total Debt | 1.95B | 1.54B | 2.20B | 2.05B | 2.17B | 1.89B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.36B | 4.05B | 4.23B | 4.10B | 4.12B | 3.82B |
| Stockholders Equity | 836.50M | 828.40M | 1.29B | 1.42B | 1.10B | 1.22B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 66.90M | 558.10M | 6.50M | 513.20M | 202.00M | -4.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 247.50M | 741.00M | 268.20M | 925.80M | 508.60M | 293.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -232.60M | -139.50M | -270.90M | -462.00M | -324.60M | -303.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -36.50M | -693.00M | -59.20M | -431.30M | -363.20M | -107.60M |
Polaris Technical Analysis
Neutral
73.04
Price Trends
69.55
Positive
64.61
Positive
64.21
Positive
Market Momentum
0.49
Positive
48.80
Neutral
42.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PII, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 73.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 71.48, above the 50-day MA of 69.55, and above the 200-day MA of 64.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PII.
Polaris Risk Analysis
Polaris disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Polaris reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Polaris Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $2.65B | 12.07 | 15.25% | 4.45% | 4.05% | 44.68% | |
62 Neutral | $909.13M | 23.57 | 3.13% | 3.41% | 3.44% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $5.28B | -62.35 | -5.32% | 2.18% | 10.46% | -305.37% | |
60 Neutral | $4.07B | -15.20 | -29.22% | 3.70% | 8.43% | -143.55% | |
56 Neutral | $2.71B | 15.72 | 6.27% | 2.88% | -5.25% | -14.29% | |
54 Neutral | $4.14B | 15.97 | 6.06% | 2.71% | 2.40% | 18.91% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
PII
Polaris
69.77
16.81
31.74%
BC
Brunswick
80.43
21.37
36.19%
LCII
LCI Industries
104.85
7.78
8.01%
HOG
Harley-Davidson
26.09
1.31
5.27%
THO
Thor Industries
79.51
-19.17
-19.42%
WGO
Winnebago Industries
32.05
0.71
2.27%
Polaris Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Polaris Appoints Sealed Air CEO Dustin Semach to Board
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
On June 19, 2026, Polaris appointed Dustin J. Semach, president and CEO of Sealed Air Corporation, to its Board of Directors, with his role announced publicly on June 22, 2026. Semach, who brings more than two decades of experience in finance, str...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Polaris Shareholders Approve Expanded Equity Incentive Plan
Positive
May 1, 2026
At its April 30, 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, Polaris Inc. secured approval to amend and restate its 2024 Omnibus Incentive Plan, nearly doubling the share pool available for equity awards to 8,905,000 shares, which enhances its capacity t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.