Affirm Holdings (AFRM)
NASDAQ:AFRM
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Affirm Holdings
(NASDAQ:AFRM)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$48.00
▼(-0.93% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/06/26
The score is supported by improving profitability and strong recent cash generation, reinforced by a constructive earnings call highlighting product/GMV momentum and better funding execution. These positives are tempered by a weak technical setup (price below key moving averages with negative MACD), a high P/E with no dividend support, and fundamental risk factors including TTM revenue decline and elevated leverage.
Positive Factors
Profitability Inflection
Affirm has moved from multi-year losses to a positive TTM net margin and very high gross margins. That structural improvement supports durable operating leverage, enables reinvestment in product and merchant acquisition, and lowers dependence on external financing over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Top-line Volatility
A material TTM revenue decline signals unstable growth momentum. Management also guided to GMV deceleration and noted large partner transitions; persistent top-line swings can undermine predictable operating leverage and make long-term planning, hiring, and investment decisions harder.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability Inflection
Affirm has moved from multi-year losses to a positive TTM net margin and very high gross margins. That structural improvement supports durable operating leverage, enables reinvestment in product and merchant acquisition, and lowers dependence on external financing over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$16.14B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.78M
Price to Earnings (P/E)48.0
Beta (1Y)2.49
Revenue Growth37.00%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees2,006
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.37
Shares Outstanding292,409,880
10 Day Avg. Volume4,490,289
30 Day Avg. Volume5,784,216
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.90
Price to Book (P/B)7.27
Price to Sales (P/S)6.92
P/FCF Ratio37.10
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.45
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.32
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.61
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$82.16Price Target Upside69.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)1.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.14B
Affirm Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates a platform for digital and mobile-first commerce in the United States and Canada. The company's platform includes point-of-sale payment solution for consumers, merchant commerce solutions, and a consumer-focused app....
How the Company Makes Money
Affirm primarily makes money by facilitating installment-payment transactions between consumers and merchants and by funding or arranging the funding of those consumer loans. Key revenue streams include: (1) Merchant network revenue: fees paid by ...
Affirm Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Active Consumers
Tracks the number of unique users who have made a purchase using Affirm, reflecting customer engagement and growth potential.
Tracks the number of unique users who have made a purchase using Affirm, reflecting customer engagement and growth potential.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAffirm Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operational and financial positives: robust Q2 GMV growth, very strong Affirm Card adoption and GMV gains, meaningful merchant diversification (large 'other' bucket and wallet partnerships), improved funding execution with lower ABS costs, and early but promising AI-driven product wins (Boost AI). Credit performance and consumer health were described as stable. Balancing these positives, management provided guidance signaling a near-term slowdown in GMV growth (30% Q3, 25% Q4), disclosed variability driven by a large merchant transition, and noted longer‑term uncertainty around a bank charter and continued regulatory complexity. On balance, the positive growth, product momentum, diversified merchant base, and strong capital markets execution outweighed the headwinds and uncertainty discussed.Positive Updates
Strong GMV Growth in the Quarter
Q2 GMV grew ~36% year-over-year, demonstrating continued topline expansion versus the prior-year period.
Negative Updates
Guidance Indicates Near-Term GMV Deceleration
Management guided to slower GMV growth for the remainder of the year: ~30% in Q3 and ~25% in Q4, signaling a deceleration from the reported Q2 growth rate (~36% YoY).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong GMV Growth in the Quarter
Q2 GMV grew ~36% year-over-year, demonstrating continued topline expansion versus the prior-year period.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Affirm guided to a decelerating GMV cadence—roughly +30% in Q3 and +25% in Q4 (versus +36% in Q2)—and expects loan/take rates (LTC) to run slightly above 4% in both Q3 and Q4, with ROTC dynamics similar to Q2 (modest y/y revenue take-rate pressure offset by transaction-cost tailwinds from lower funding costs). Management reiterated the plan to execute to the guide and to drive continued adjusted operating-margin expansion in FY‑26, noting constructive ABS funding markets (most recent deal priced with spreads under 100 bps and a weighted‑average yield below ~4.6%).Affirm Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.72B | 3.22B | 2.32B | 1.59B | 1.35B | 870.46M |
| Gross Profit | 2.52B | 2.18B | 1.48B | 714.82M | 772.84M | 547.55M |
| EBITDA | 992.85M | 711.99M | -2.23M | -671.60M | -602.41M | -370.69M |
| Net Income | 282.33M | 52.19M | -517.76M | -985.35M | -707.42M | -441.03M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.96B | 11.15B | 9.52B | 8.16B | 6.97B | 4.87B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.25B | 2.23B | 2.14B | 2.07B | 2.85B | 1.48B |
| Total Debt | 9.18B | 7.85B | 6.61B | 5.45B | 4.14B | 1.98B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.41B | 8.09B | 6.79B | 5.62B | 4.36B | 2.29B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.55B | 3.07B | 2.73B | 2.53B | 2.62B | 2.58B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 619.13M | 601.72M | 290.84M | -108.59M | -273.90M | -213.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 833.34M | 793.91M | 450.14M | 12.18M | -162.19M | -193.13M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.92B | -1.08B | -1.33B | -1.65B | -2.01B | -1.02B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.44B | 751.42M | 913.15M | 1.35B | 2.04B | 2.58B |
Affirm Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
48.45
Price Trends
51.87
Negative
62.21
Negative
68.31
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.76
Negative
51.78
Neutral
77.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFRM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 48.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.20, below the 50-day MA of 51.87, and below the 200-day MA of 68.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AFRM.
Affirm Holdings Risk Analysis
Affirm Holdings disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Affirm Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
We are subject to both natural and man-made events that may unexpectedly disrupt our operations and adversely impact our business. Q2, 2023
Affirm Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.70B | 27.73 | 9.84% | ― | 10.58% | -45.52% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
62 Neutral | $36.35B | 30.56 | 5.91% | ― | 0.47% | 178.05% | |
62 Neutral | $4.32B | 42.45 | 7.54% | ― | 23.16% | 27.38% | |
62 Neutral | $1.71B | ― | -1.62% | ― | 20.11% | -391.61% | |
59 Neutral | $16.14B | 48.00 | 8.83% | ― | 37.00% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $9.29B | -36.59 | -12.47% | ― | ― | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
AFRM
Affirm Holdings
48.45
12.00
32.92%
XYZ
Block
60.68
11.60
23.63%
FOUR
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PAYO
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4.92
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-16.61%
MQ
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4.00
0.25
6.67%
KLAR
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13.17
-29.57
-69.19%
Affirm Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Affirm Grants New Performance-Based PSU Award to CEO
Positive
Jan 16, 2026
On January 13, 2026, Affirm Holdings’ board approved a new performance stock unit grant of 333,667 PSUs to founder and CEO Max Levchin under the company’s 2012 Stock Plan, structured to vest into Class A common shares based on a mix of...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.