Affirm Holdings (AFRM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $19.63B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 7.93M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.90
• Revenue Growth: 42.54%
• EPS Growth: 91.01%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,006
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 281,825,620
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,317,330
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,931,230
• PEG Ratio: -0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -41.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.46
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.22
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.86
• 1Y Price Target: $67.53
• Price Target Upside: 10.98% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 23

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $57.00 ▼(-6.33%Downside)

Affirm Holdings shows robust revenue growth and positive market momentum, supported by strategic partnerships and a positive earnings call sentiment. However, significant concerns remain due to profitability challenges, high negative P/E, and valuation pressures. A balanced approach to growth and profitability, along with strategic initiatives, provide a moderately positive outlook with room for improvement.

Positive Factors

Growth Opportunities

Affirm Card traction continues to be a bright spot, up 115% year-over-year and representing 9% of total company GMV.

Market Position

Affirm is considered the best-positioned BNPL provider in a burgeoning market aimed at revolutionizing consumer credit.

Partnerships

Affirm has substantially broadened its distribution, reaching more customers and improving transaction frequency thanks to partnerships with high-profile merchants such as Amazon and Walmart.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

Revenue and RL TC underperformance versus investor expectations and F4Q25 GMV outlook deceleration are key drivers of the ~8% after-hours decline.

Margin Concerns

An increasing mix towards 0% APR due to increased promotion from partners led to lower-than-expected margins.

Regulatory and Credit Risks

Downside risks include deterioration of customer credit profile, stricter regulatory supervision, and loss of major enterprise merchant partners.

Affirm Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates a platform for digital and mobile-first commerce in the United States and Canada. The company's platform includes point-of-sale payment solution for consumers, merchant commerce solutions, and a consumer-focused app. Its payments network and partnership with an originating bank, enables consumers to pay for a purchase over time with terms ranging from one to forty-eight months. As of June 30, 2021, the company had approximately 29,000 merchants integrated on its platform covering small businesses, large enterprises, direct-to-consumer brands, brick-and-mortar stores, and companies. Its merchants represent a range of industries, including sporting goods and outdoors, furniture and homewares, travel, apparel, accessories, consumer electronics, and jewelry. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Affirm makes money primarily through merchant fees and interest income. When consumers use Affirm to finance purchases, merchants pay Affirm a fee for facilitating the transaction, which is typically a percentage of the purchase amount. This fee compensates Affirm for the increased conversion rates and higher average order values that merchants experience by offering flexible payment options. Additionally, Affirm earns interest income by charging consumers who choose longer-term financing options. These consumers may incur interest charges, depending on the terms of the installment loan. Furthermore, partnerships with major retailers like Amazon and Shopify have expanded Affirm's reach and contributed significantly to its earnings by integrating Affirm's services into their platforms, thus increasing transaction volumes. Affirm also benefits from strategic partnerships with financial institutions and technology platforms, further enhancing its revenue streams.

Affirm Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Affirm Holdings shows strong revenue growth, with significant increases in TTM revenue. However, persistent challenges with profitability and high operating expenses leading to net losses, along with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, affect the stability. Improved cash flow management supports future prospects, but leveraging and profitability remain key issues.

Income Statement

Affirm Holdings has shown a significant increase in revenue over the years, with the TTM revenue at $2.18 billion compared to $1.35 billion in 2022, indicating strong growth. However, the company is struggling with negative profitability metrics, such as a negative net profit margin and EBIT margin, primarily due to its high operating expenses, which has led to net losses over the observed periods.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.41 for the TTM period, suggesting reasonable leverage, but it is important to note the substantial total liabilities compared to equity. The equity ratio is improving, indicating a strengthening financial position, but the overall stability is impacted by the ongoing losses.

Cash Flow

Affirm Holdings has shown improvement in its cash flow management, with positive operating cash flow and free cash flow in the TTM period. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive due to better cash flow management, though the company has experienced fluctuations in cash flow from financing and investing activities.

Breakdown
TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.01B	2.32B	1.59B	1.35B	870.46M	509.53M
	Gross Profit
2.15B	1.48B	714.82M	772.84M	540.62M	337.32M
	EBIT
-75.94M	-615.85M	-1.20B	-796.35M	-326.49M	-75.47M
	EBITDA
304.17M	0.00	-671.60M	-602.41M	-370.69M	-70.51M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-62.19M	-517.76M	-985.35M	-707.42M	-430.92M	-112.60M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
2.13B	2.14B	2.07B	2.85B	1.47B	267.06M
	Total Assets
10.44B	9.52B	8.16B	6.97B	4.87B	1.40B
	Total Debt
7.36B	6.61B	5.45B	4.08B	1.91B	917.15M
	Net Debt
6.01B	5.60B	4.56B	2.82B	440.80M	650.09M
	Total Liabilities
7.56B	6.79B	5.62B	4.36B	2.29B	1.77B
	Stockholders Equity
2.87B	2.73B	2.53B	2.62B	2.58B	-367.10M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
608.71M	290.84M	-108.59M	-225.50M	-213.38M	-92.32M
	Operating Cash Flow
788.03M	450.14M	12.18M	-113.80M	-193.13M	-71.30M
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.17B	-1.33B	-1.65B	-2.03B	-1.02B	-253.07M
	Financing Cash Flow
510.13M	913.15M	1.35B	2.00B	2.58B	294.73M

Affirm Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 60.85
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFRM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 60.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 54.82, above the 50-day MA of 50.02, and above the 200-day MA of 53.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AFRM.

Affirm Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TOST	76 Outperform	$24.03B	177.14	11.06%	―	26.72%	―
FOUR	74 Outperform	$8.11B	30.94	30.28%	―	27.39%	115.40%
PAYO	73 Outperform	$2.41B	22.27	15.97%	―	14.86%	-0.94%
DLO	72 Outperform	$2.94B	22.48	26.10%	―	33.84%	0.29%
MQ	68 Neutral	$2.61B	55.53	5.01%	―	-8.44%	―
Sector *	62 Neutral	$11.97B	10.29	-7.47%	2.99%	7.32%	-8.06%
AFRM	61 Neutral	$19.63B	―	-2.26%	―	42.54%	91.01%

Affirm Holdings Corporate Events

Affirm Holdings Signs New Agreement with Shopify

On February 14, 2025, Affirm, Inc., a subsidiary of Affirm Holdings, Inc., entered into a new Global Customer Installment Program Agreement with Shopify Inc., replacing the previous agreement. This partnership makes Affirm the exclusive provider of Shop Pay Installments in the U.S. and Canada and aims to expand into new markets, including the U.K. The agreement, effective for an initial three-year term, enhances Affirm’s market positioning by broadening its reach and maintaining exclusivity with Shopify, impacting stakeholders by potentially increasing merchant adoption and consumer usage globally.