Toast Inc (TOST)
NYSE:TOST
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Toast Inc
(NYSE:TOST)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$34.00
▲(33.86% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/14/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals—stronger profitability, robust free cash flow, and a low-leverage balance sheet—reinforced by confident 2026 growth/EBITDA guidance. These positives are tempered by weak technicals (price well below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a relatively expensive valuation (high P/E with no dividend).
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
Very low leverage and steadily growing equity materially improve solvency and financial flexibility. This durable capital structure reduces refinancing and distress risk, supports ongoing buybacks and investments, and gives management room to fund growth or absorb cyclical shocks without relying on new debt.
Negative Factors
Sharply decelerating revenue growth
The multi-year slowdown in top-line growth reduces operating leverage and raises the bar for margin expansion to sustain returns. Durable growth compression makes the business more dependent on upsells, cross-sell and new TAM execution; failure to reaccelerate risks reduced long-term profitability expansion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength
Very low leverage and steadily growing equity materially improve solvency and financial flexibility. This durable capital structure reduces refinancing and distress risk, supports ongoing buybacks and investments, and gives management room to fund growth or absorb cyclical shocks without relying on new debt.
Read all positive factors
Toast Inc (TOST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.96B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)10.27M
Price to Earnings (P/E)60.4
Beta (1Y)1.34
Revenue Growth25.76%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,700
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.25
Shares Outstanding524,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume8,420,636
30 Day Avg. Volume10,266,441
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)9.73
Price to Sales (P/S)3.36
P/FCF Ratio33.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.39
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.23
Enterprise Value/Ebitda37.73
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$38.61Price Target Upside52.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)1.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.40B
Toast Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Toast, Inc. operates a cloud-based and digital technology platform for the restaurant industry in the United States and Ireland. The company offers Toast Point of Sale (POS), a hardware product; Toast Order & Pay, which allows guests to order and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Toast Inc generates revenue primarily through its subscription-based model, where restaurants pay for access to its POS software and additional services on a monthly basis. Key revenue streams include software subscriptions, hardware sales (such a...
Toast Inc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business units, revealing which areas are driving growth and where the company might be exposed to risk or opportunity.
Breaks down revenue by different business units, revealing which areas are driving growth and where the company might be exposed to risk or opportunity.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyToast Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong top-line and recurring gross profit growth, record net location additions, improved margins and robust cash generation, driven by product innovation (notably AI) and expansion into enterprise, international and retail. Key challenges include hardware cost headwinds (memory chips and tariffs), a negative contribution from hardware/professional services to gross profit, early-stage economics in new TAMs, and modest per-location GPV pressure. Management provided confident guidance for continued growth in 2026 while noting near-term hardware cost impacts and continued investments in R&D and go-to-market.Positive Updates
Strong recurring gross profit and ARR growth
Recurring gross profit streams increased 33% for full-year 2025 (28% in Q4). Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew 26%, with ARR above $2.0 billion.
Negative Updates
Hardware cost headwinds (memory chips and tariffs)
Guidance for 2026 includes an estimated ~150 basis point negative impact from higher memory chip costs, plus elevated tariff costs. Management expects the cost pressure to be weighted toward the second half of 2026 as higher-cost inventory rolls out.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong recurring gross profit and ARR growth
Recurring gross profit streams increased 33% for full-year 2025 (28% in Q4). Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew 26%, with ARR above $2.0 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to full-year 2026 recurring gross profit stream growth of 20–22% and adjusted EBITDA of $775–795 million (implying margins slightly up year‑over‑year), while reiterating confidence that net location adds will increase versus the ~30,000 net locations added in 2025 (ending the year at 164,000 locations) and that SaaS ARPU will sustain mid‑single‑digit ARR growth; Q1 guidance reflects seasonality with total fintech and subscription gross profit growth of 22–24% year‑over‑year and adjusted EBITDA of $160–170 million. Management noted a ~150 basis‑point headwind to 2026 guidance from higher memory chip costs (weighted to H2 as higher‑cost inventory rolls out), expects payback periods in the mid‑teens months company‑wide and a sub‑20‑month path for new TAMs as they scale, and reiterated a long‑term target of 40%+ margins while reserving the option to reinvest upside into growth initiatives.Toast Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
87
Very Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.15B | 4.96B | 3.87B | 2.73B | 1.71B |
| Gross Profit | 1.58B | 1.19B | 834.00M | 511.00M | 314.00M |
| EBITDA | 372.00M | 108.00M | -255.00M | -360.00M | -207.00M |
| Net Income | 342.00M | 19.00M | -246.00M | -275.00M | -487.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.15B | 2.46B | 1.96B | 1.76B | 1.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.99B | 1.42B | 1.12B | 1.02B | 1.27B |
| Total Debt | 40.00M | 34.00M | 44.00M | 94.00M | 99.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.02B | 918.00M | 764.00M | 663.00M | 644.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.12B | 1.54B | 1.19B | 1.10B | 1.09B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 608.00M | 306.00M | 93.00M | -189.00M | -17.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 661.00M | 360.00M | 135.00M | -156.00M | 2.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -172.00M | -39.00M | -86.00M | -98.00M | -503.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 7.00M | 18.00M | 63.00M | 38.00M | 759.00M |
Toast Inc Technical Analysis
Negative
25.40
Price Trends
27.69
Negative
31.25
Negative
36.31
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.69
Positive
37.85
Neutral
31.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TOST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.77, below the 50-day MA of 27.69, and below the 200-day MA of 36.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TOST.
Toast Inc Risk Analysis
Toast Inc disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Toast Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Toast Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $16.38B | 20.43 | 20.29% | ― | 9.66% | 23.87% | |
72 Outperform | $14.96B | 60.43 | 17.93% | ― | 25.76% | ― | |
71 Outperform | $1.60B | 27.73 | 9.84% | ― | 10.58% | -45.52% | |
63 Neutral | $9.13B | 25.68 | -36.77% | ― | 17.45% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $4.51B | 42.45 | 7.54% | ― | 23.16% | 27.38% | |
62 Neutral | $1.64B | -393.70 | -1.62% | ― | 20.11% | -391.61% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
TOST
Toast Inc
25.40
-9.22
-26.63%
FFIV
F5, Inc.
289.81
27.12
10.32%
NTNX
Nutanix
34.41
-25.98
-43.02%
FOUR
Shift4 Payments
44.18
-32.32
-42.25%
PAYO
Payoneer
4.64
-1.77
-27.61%
MQ
Marqeta
3.85
-0.07
-1.79%
Toast Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Toast boosts buybacks after strong 2025 results
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Toast on Feb. 12, 2026 reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighted by a record 30,000 net new locations in 2025 and annualized recurring run-rate surpassing $2.0 billion. Revenue drivers included a 22% year-over-year inc...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Toast appoints Rossana Niola as new Chief Accounting Officer
Positive
Jan 15, 2026
On January 13, 2026, Toast, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors appointed former Mastercard executive Rossana Niola as Chief Accounting Officer effective upon her expected start date of January 26, 2026, and as principal accounting officer ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.