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Nutanix (NTNX)
NASDAQ:NTNX

Nutanix (NTNX) AI Stock Analysis

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NTNX

Nutanix

(NASDAQ:NTNX)

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Neutral 62 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$54.00
▲(6.80% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by solid operating and cash-flow performance and a generally constructive earnings update (ARR growth and higher free-cash-flow guidance). These positives are tempered by balance-sheet risk (negative equity), weak longer-term technical trend signals, and a high P/E valuation.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates strong demand for Nutanix's solutions and effective market penetration, supporting long-term business expansion.
Free Cash Flow
Rising free cash flow enhances Nutanix's financial flexibility, enabling investment in growth opportunities and shareholder returns.
Leadership Expansion
Leadership consolidation under an experienced executive can streamline operations and improve strategic execution, benefiting long-term growth.
Negative Factors
Negative Equity
Negative equity indicates financial instability, potentially limiting Nutanix's ability to raise capital and invest in growth initiatives.
Revenue Guidance Reduction
Reduced revenue guidance suggests potential challenges in demand forecasting and customer engagement, impacting future revenue visibility.
US Federal Business Variability
Variability in a key segment like US Federal can lead to unpredictable revenue streams, affecting overall business stability.

Nutanix (NTNX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Nutanix Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNutanix, Inc. provides an enterprise cloud platform in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa. The company offers Acropolis converges virtualization, enterprise storage services, and networking visualization and security services; Acropolis Hypervisor, an enterprise-grade virtualization solution; Nutanix Karbon for automated deployment and management of Kubernetes clusters to simplify the provisioning, operations, and lifecycle management of cloud-native environments; and Nutanix Clusters solution. It also offers Prism Pro; Nutanix Beam, a cloud governance; and Nutanix Calm, an application marketplace, which provides automation services that streamline application lifecycle management and deliver powerful hybrid cloud orchestration. In addition, the company provides Nutanix Files, an enterprise-grade NFS and SMB files services; Nutanix Objects, a S3-compatible object services; Nutanix Era, a database automation and database-as-a-service solution; and Nutanix Frame, a desktop-as-a-service product to deliver virtual apps or desktops to users from multiple public cloud environments and/or an enterprises private cloud datacenter. Further, it offers products support, and consulting and implementation services. It serves customers in a range of industries, including automotive, consumer goods, education, energy, financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, media, public sector, retail, technology, and telecommunications, as well as service providers. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyNutanix primarily generates revenue through the sale of its software and subscription services. The company’s revenue model includes software licenses, which are sold as perpetual licenses or as part of a subscription model, allowing customers to pay for ongoing access to their solutions. Additionally, Nutanix offers support and maintenance services, which provide a steady stream of recurring revenue. Key revenue streams include both software subscriptions and professional services, such as consulting and implementation. The company has established significant partnerships with major players in the technology sector, including Dell Technologies, IBM, and AWS, which enhance its market reach and contribute to overall earnings through collaborative offerings and integrated solutions.

Nutanix Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Geography
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Chart InsightsNutanix's revenue growth is particularly strong in the United States and EMEA regions, with recent quarters showing significant gains. This aligns with the company's robust performance in Q3 2025, where revenue exceeded guidance and ARR grew by 18%. However, despite these gains, challenges in the macro environment and flat net retention rates could impact future growth. The company is focusing on cloud platform expansion and partnerships to sustain momentum, but variability in the federal business may pose risks.
Data provided by:The Fly

Nutanix Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 25, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call showcased strong ARR growth, new customer acquisitions, increased free cash flow expectations, and industry recognition, but was tempered by challenges in revenue recognition timing and a reduction in revenue guidance due to deferred revenue and reliance on OEM partners.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
ARR Growth
Nutanix reported an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $2.28 billion, representing an 18% year-over-year growth.
Free Cash Flow Increase
The company increased its free cash flow expectations for FY26 to $800 million to $840 million, representing a margin of 28.9% at the midpoint.
New Customer Wins
Nutanix secured several significant new customers, including a European government agency and a seven-figure deal with a global 2,000 EMEA-based energy provider.
Industry Recognition
Nutanix was named a leader in the 2025 Gartner Magic Quadrant for Distributed Hybrid Infrastructure.
Negative Updates
Revenue Guidance Reduction
Full-year revenue guidance was reduced due to more revenue being deferred than planned, driven by customer demand for start dates aligned with their adoption timelines and increased reliance on third-party OEM partners.
Revenue Recognition Challenges
Revenue of $671 million was within the guided range but lower than expected due to a higher proportion of land and expand bookings with future start dates.
US Federal Business Variability
The company expects continued variability in its US Federal business due to recent personnel changes and policy shifts.
Company Guidance
During the Nutanix First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call, management provided guidance with several key metrics highlighted. The company reported quarterly revenue of $671 million, within their guidance range of $670 to $680 million, marking a year-over-year growth rate of 13%. The annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew 18% year-over-year to $2.28 billion, with a net dollar-based retention rate (NRR) of 109%, remaining flat quarter-over-quarter. Nutanix also reported a non-GAAP operating margin of 19.7% and a free cash flow of $175 million, representing a margin of 26%. Despite some revenue deferral due to evolving business mix and customer demands for flexible start dates, the company maintained its bookings growth expectations and increased its free cash flow guidance for the full fiscal year 2026 to $800-$840 million. The updated revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026 is between $2.82 billion and $2.86 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth rate of 12% at the midpoint. Nutanix emphasized that the revenue shift was solely a timing issue, with no impact on the expected total revenue recognition over time.

Nutanix Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Nutanix demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability improvements, particularly in cash flow generation. However, the negative equity and high leverage pose financial risks. Continued focus on improving operational efficiency and reducing leverage will be crucial for long-term stability.
Income Statement
Nutanix has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 3.14%. Gross profit margins are robust at 87%, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin has improved to 8.43%, reflecting enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT margin of 6.44% suggests room for improvement in operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
The company faces challenges with a negative stockholders' equity, resulting in a high debt-to-equity ratio of -2.21. This indicates potential financial instability. Despite this, the company has managed to improve its return on equity, although it remains negative.
Cash Flow
Nutanix has shown strong cash flow performance with a free cash flow growth rate of 3.01%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.61, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 0.90, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.54B2.15B1.86B1.58B1.39B
Gross Profit2.20B1.82B1.53B1.26B1.10B
EBITDA292.73M141.26M-93.08M-631.00M-842.80M
Net Income188.37M-124.78M-254.56M-797.54M-1.03B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.28B2.14B2.53B2.37B2.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.99B994.34M1.44B1.32B1.21B
Total Debt1.48B695.22M1.33B1.44B1.19B
Total Liabilities3.98B2.87B3.23B3.17B3.29B
Stockholders Equity-694.52M-728.15M-707.42M-800.50M-1.01B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow750.17M597.68M207.00M18.48M-158.46M
Operating Cash Flow821.46M672.93M272.40M67.54M-99.81M
Investing Cash Flow-951.69M529.59M-49.78M-54.19M-597.15M
Financing Cash Flow244.09M-1.06B-112.71M103.64M663.85M

Nutanix Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price50.56
Price Trends
50DMA
57.70
Negative
100DMA
64.84
Negative
200DMA
68.77
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.24
Negative
RSI
39.86
Neutral
STOCH
36.82
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTNX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 50.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.06, below the 50-day MA of 57.70, and below the 200-day MA of 68.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NTNX.

Nutanix Risk Analysis

Nutanix disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nutanix reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nutanix Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$34.25B-477.12-3.23%20.93%68.47%
62
Neutral
$13.67B67.5117.45%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
60
Neutral
$16.03B20.43369.45%8.79%-55.15%
60
Neutral
$15.54B80.532.96%12.12%
60
Neutral
$35.52B-848.93-2.41%23.24%-8.83%
50
Neutral
$14.71B-37.5448.93%69.39%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NTNX
Nutanix
50.56
-11.61
-18.67%
GDDY
GoDaddy
118.59
-76.98
-39.36%
OKTA
Okta
87.71
3.05
3.60%
MDB
MongoDB
420.82
174.86
71.09%
ZS
Zscaler
222.76
38.86
21.13%
RBRK
Rubrik, Inc. Class A
73.50
9.16
14.24%

Nutanix Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Nutanix Elevates Tarkan Maner to President Role
Positive
Dec 22, 2025

On December 18, 2025, cloud software company Nutanix appointed its Chief Commercial Officer, Tarkan Maner, as President and Chief Commercial Officer, expanding his remit to include oversight of sales, marketing and customer experience while CEO Rajiv Ramaswami remains in his role. Maner, 56, a veteran executive with prior CEO roles at Nexenta Systems and Wyse Technology and senior posts at Dell, CA Technologies, IBM and Sterling Software, takes on the enlarged portfolio without changes to his existing compensation, a move that underscores Nutanix’s emphasis on consolidating commercial leadership and customer-facing functions as it refines its go-to-market strategy, without signaling governance or related-party concerns.

The most recent analyst rating on (NTNX) stock is a Hold with a $54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nutanix stock, see the NTNX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Nutanix Announces $300M Accelerated Share Buyback Plan
Positive
Dec 17, 2025

On December 16, 2025, Nutanix entered into an accelerated share repurchase (ASR) agreement with Bank of America to buy back $300 million of its Class A common stock, funded by its available cash. This move reflects Nutanix’s confidence in its sustained revenue growth and free cash flow generation, aiming to both enhance shareholder value and maintain strategic flexibility for business innovation.

The most recent analyst rating on (NTNX) stock is a Buy with a $64.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nutanix stock, see the NTNX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Nutanix Stockholders Approve Key Equity Plan Changes
Neutral
Dec 15, 2025

On December 12, 2025, Nutanix, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where stockholders approved significant changes to the company’s 2016 Equity Incentive Plan. The amendments include extending the plan’s term, setting a new fixed maximum aggregate share reserve of 19,500,000 shares, and removing the annual evergreen feature. These changes aim to enhance governance by eliminating liberal share recycling and prohibiting dividends on unvested awards. Additionally, stockholders voted on four proposals, including the election of directors and the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor for fiscal year 2026. The approval of these proposals reflects the company’s efforts to strengthen its corporate governance and operational strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (NTNX) stock is a Buy with a $64.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nutanix stock, see the NTNX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Nutanix Grants Annual Equity Awards to Executives
Neutral
Nov 13, 2025

Nutanix, Inc.’s Compensation Committee has decided to maintain the current annual base salaries for its executive officers for fiscal year 2026. On November 10, 2025, the company granted annual equity awards to its executives, consisting of time-based and performance-based restricted stock units, which are contingent on the company’s total shareholder return relative to the NASDAQ Composite Index.

The most recent analyst rating on (NTNX) stock is a Buy with a $95.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nutanix stock, see the NTNX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 25, 2025