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Samsara
(NYSE:IOT)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$43.00
▲(29.87% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/24/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (positive TTM earnings and strong free cash flow, plus low leverage) and a bullish earnings-call outlook with raised guidance and profitability targets. These strengths are tempered by very expensive valuation (extremely high P/E) and only modest/soft technical momentum (below the 20DMA with mid-40s RSI).
Positive Factors
ARR Scale and Growth
Rapid, large-scale ARR growth creates durable recurring revenue that underpins predictable top-line expansion and upsell potential. A $2.0B ARR base growing ~30% and accelerating net new ARR supports multi-quarter revenue visibility, makes renewals and expansion easier, and reduces reliance on one-off deals.
Negative Factors
Gross Margin Pressure from AI/Cloud Spend
Sustained investment in AI and cloud compute can compress historically strong ~76% gross margins. If AI/cloud costs remain elevated or scale benefits lag, margin sustainability is at risk, reducing cash conversion and the runway for reinvestment until optimizations or pricing actions offset higher COGS.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
ARR Scale and Growth
Rapid, large-scale ARR growth creates durable recurring revenue that underpins predictable top-line expansion and upsell potential. A $2.0B ARR base growing ~30% and accelerating net new ARR supports multi-quarter revenue visibility, makes renewals and expansion easier, and reduces reliance on one-off deals.
Read all positive factors
Samsara Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Samsara (IOT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.65B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.61M
Price to Earnings (P/E)366.9
Beta (1Y)1.48
Revenue Growth29.60%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees4,100
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.10
Shares Outstanding372,784,500
10 Day Avg. Volume5,491,714
30 Day Avg. Volume5,610,100
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio18.70
Price to Book (P/B)11.32
Price to Sales (P/S)9.94
P/FCF Ratio77.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$44.36Price Target Upside33.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)0.71
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.01B
Samsara Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Samsara Inc. specializes in providing solutions that digitize and connect physical operations data to its centralized Connected Operations Cloud, accessible to clients across the United States and internationally. At the core of this cloud-based p...
How the Company Makes Money
Samsara primarily makes money by selling subscriptions to its Connected Operations Cloud (software) that customers pay for on a recurring basis (typically as SaaS) to access applications such as fleet tracking, safety/video analytics, compliance, ...
Samsara Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 04, 2026
(Q1-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call portrayed a strong operational and financial quarter with durable ARR and revenue growth, expanding enterprise account base, robust multiproduct adoption, meaningful contribution from emerging products, and consecutive GAAP profitability — all supporting an upgraded full-year outlook. Counterbalancing risks include near-term gross margin pressure from AI/cloud investments, supply-chain and component cost uncertainty, early-stage monetization risk for operational AI, and potential volatility from large deal timing. Overall, positives substantially outweigh the highlighted challenges.Positive Updates
Strong ARR Scale and Growth
Ending Q1 ARR approximately $2.0B, up 30% year-over-year; net new ARR of $101M in Q1, up 30% YoY (27% in constant currency); LTM net new ARR $455M, up 27% YoY (25% CC) and accelerating for the fourth consecutive quarter.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Pressure from AI and Cloud Investments
Reported gross margin declined ~200 basis points year-over-year, attributed to increased AI and cloud spending; management expects to offset some COGS increases with optimizations and keep gross margins roughly flat for FY'27, but near-term pressure exists.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong ARR Scale and Growth
Ending Q1 ARR approximately $2.0B, up 30% year-over-year; net new ARR of $101M in Q1, up 30% YoY (27% in constant currency); LTM net new ARR $455M, up 27% YoY (25% CC) and accelerating for the fourth consecutive quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management gave derisked guidance (FX as of May 2) for Q2 and FY‑2027: Q2 revenue $482–$484M (growth of 23–24% YoY, or 22–23% in constant currency), non‑GAAP operating margin of 18%, non‑GAAP EPS $0.15–$0.16, and expected GAAP profitability for the quarter; full‑year FY‑27 revenue $2.005–$2.013B (≈24% YoY, or 23–24% in constant currency), non‑GAAP operating margin of 20%, non‑GAAP EPS $0.70–$0.72, and expected GAAP profitability for the year.Samsara Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.73B | 1.62B | 1.25B | 937.38M | 652.54M | 428.35M |
| Gross Profit | 1.32B | 1.24B | 950.88M | 690.35M | 469.89M | 303.86M |
| EBITDA | 97.20M | 24.95M | -164.45M | -171.08M | -167.10M | -304.39M |
| Net Income | 57.51M | -9.12M | -154.91M | -286.73M | -247.42M | -355.02M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.61B | 2.54B | 2.02B | 1.73B | 1.62B | 1.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 804.32M | 833.79M | 694.80M | 547.66M | 689.86M | 921.22M |
| Total Debt | 69.02M | 72.77M | 80.28M | 99.49M | 122.92M | 144.96M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.11B | 1.12B | 955.11M | 819.70M | 678.99M | 578.98M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.51B | 1.42B | 1.07B | 915.15M | 938.02M | 988.95M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 234.93M | 207.44M | 111.48M | -22.77M | -136.26M | -190.83M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 265.01M | 236.21M | 131.66M | -11.81M | -103.02M | -171.48M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -320.43M | -189.53M | -66.62M | -78.69M | -631.85M | -20.04M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.15M | 29.93M | 27.10M | 21.00M | 14.21M | 701.64M |
Samsara Technical Analysis
Neutral
33.11
Price Trends
34.12
Positive
32.31
Positive
33.54
Positive
Market Momentum
0.31
Positive
44.65
Neutral
7.39
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IOT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 33.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.29, below the 50-day MA of 34.12, and below the 200-day MA of 33.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.39 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for IOT.
Samsara Risk Analysis
Samsara disclosed 84 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Samsara reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Samsara Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $256.03B | 268.07 | 6.30% | ― | 19.51% | -33.05% | |
78 Outperform | $112.26B | 57.68 | 187.95% | ― | 18.77% | 12.93% | |
75 Outperform | $182.66B | -3,827.37 | -0.58% | ― | 23.17% | 73.57% | |
71 Outperform | $22.65B | 366.93 | 4.22% | ― | 29.60% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $24.87B | -315.90 | -3.71% | ― | 24.61% | -91.58% | |
67 Neutral | $96.02B | -1,063.83 | -6.23% | ― | 31.55% | -4.50% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
IOT
Samsara
35.80
-0.21
-0.58%
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154.25
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ZS
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CRWD
CrowdStrike Holdings
185.22
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NET
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283.39
83.28
41.62%
Samsara Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Samsara Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Auditors, Executive Pay
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on July 22, 2026, Samsara Inc. shareholders elected eight directors, including CEO Sanjit Biswas and board members such as Marc Andreessen and Gary Steele, to serve until the next annual meeting. The voti...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Samsara Files Procedural Amendment to Corporate Bylaws
Neutral
Jun 1, 2026
Samsara filed a brief regulatory statement indicating that information previously disclosed under another section is being incorporated by reference into an additional section of its filing. This appears to be a procedural legal clarification with...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Samsara Shareholders Approve Reincorporation From Delaware to Nevada
Neutral
May 1, 2026
On April 29, 2026, Samsara Inc. said a group of major stockholders holding about 76.7% of the company’s voting power approved by written consent a plan to reincorporate the company from Delaware to Nevada. The move will be implemented via a ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.