Samsara, Inc. Class A (IOT)
NYSE:IOT
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Samsara
(NYSE:IOT)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$35.00
▲(14.87% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/07/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial momentum (high margins, rapidly improving profitability, and meaningful positive free cash flow) and constructive earnings-call guidance toward sustained profitability. Technicals are supportive but look overextended, while valuation remains a clear weak point due to negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
ARR Growth & Scale
Sustained ARR growth to $1.9B (+30% YoY) shows scalable demand for the platform and larger enterprise adoption. Durable ARR growth supports predictable recurring revenue, fuels product investment, and amplifies network effects that make cross-sell and retention easier over the next several years.
Negative Factors
Growth Deceleration
Management's guidance implies a material slowdown from prior-year 30% growth to ~21–22%. At a larger scale, slower top-line growth can reduce future operating leverage and extend time to steady-state margin targets, making sustained high returns harder absent faster international or product-led expansion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
ARR Growth & Scale
Sustained ARR growth to $1.9B (+30% YoY) shows scalable demand for the platform and larger enterprise adoption. Durable ARR growth supports predictable recurring revenue, fuels product investment, and amplifies network effects that make cross-sell and retention easier over the next several years.
Read all positive factors
Samsara (IOT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.69B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)7.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.66
Revenue Growth28.96%
EPS Growth84.06%
CountryUS
Employees3,500
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.18
Shares Outstanding368,421,330
10 Day Avg. Volume4,442,788
30 Day Avg. Volume7,895,415
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio18.71
Price to Book (P/B)11.32
Price to Sales (P/S)9.94
P/FCF Ratio77.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.23
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-4.04K
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$42.29Price Target Upside38.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)0.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.97B
Samsara Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Samsara Inc. provides solutions that connect physical operations data to its Connected Operations Cloud in the United States and internationally. The company's Connected Operations Cloud includes Data Platform, which ingests, aggregates, and enric...
How the Company Makes Money
Samsara primarily makes money by selling subscriptions to its cloud-based software platform (software-as-a-service), typically contracted on a recurring basis, and by selling or bundling the associated connected hardware devices that generate and ...
Samsara Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized durable, accelerating growth at scale with significant product momentum (ending ARR $1.9B, +30% YoY; FY '26 net new ARR $432M; emerging products now >$100M ARR and 23% of Q4 net new ACV), margin expansion, GAAP profitability, and a clear AI/data-driven strategy. Headwinds noted include guidance showing slower growth rates for FY '27 compared with FY '26, component cost pressure (storage/NAND), concentration in larger customers, and ongoing change-management challenges in customer adoption. Overall, positives (strong growth, expanding margins, product/AI traction, large deal wins and conservative yet profitable guidance) materially outweigh the listed lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong ARR and Net New ARR Growth
Ending ARR of $1.9B, up 30% year-over-year; FY '26 net new ARR of $432M, up 21% year-over-year; Q4 net new ARR of $145M, up 33% year-over-year (31% in constant currency) and the highest net new ARR growth in the past 8 quarters.
Negative Updates
Decelerating Growth Rate in Guidance
FY '27 revenue growth guide of 21–22% represents a material deceleration from FY '26's 30% ARR and revenue growth, signaling a slower top-line growth trajectory at the new scale.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong ARR and Net New ARR Growth
Ending ARR of $1.9B, up 30% year-over-year; FY '26 net new ARR of $432M, up 21% year-over-year; Q4 net new ARR of $145M, up 33% year-over-year (31% in constant currency) and the highest net new ARR growth in the past 8 quarters.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Samsara guided Q1 FY‑27 revenue of $454–456 million (≈24% YoY growth; 22–23% in constant currency), non‑GAAP operating margin of 15%, and non‑GAAP EPS of $0.12–0.13 (guidance uses FX as of Jan 31 and is deliberately de‑risked); for full‑year FY‑27 it expects revenue of $1.965–1.975 billion (21–22% YoY; ~21% constant currency), non‑GAAP operating margin of 19%, non‑GAAP EPS of $0.65–0.69, and to be GAAP profitable for the full year (management noted Q1 may be slightly GAAP negative as seasonal OpEx exits).Samsara Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.62B | 1.25B | 937.38M | 652.54M | 428.35M |
| Gross Profit | 1.24B | 950.88M | 690.35M | 469.89M | 303.86M |
| EBITDA | -28.53M | -164.45M | -171.08M | -167.10M | -304.39M |
| Net Income | -9.12M | -154.91M | -286.73M | -247.42M | -355.02M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.54B | 2.02B | 1.73B | 1.62B | 1.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 833.79M | 694.80M | 547.66M | 689.86M | 921.22M |
| Total Debt | 72.77M | 80.28M | 99.49M | 122.92M | 144.96M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.12B | 955.11M | 819.70M | 678.99M | 578.98M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.42B | 1.07B | 915.15M | 938.02M | 988.95M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 207.44M | 111.48M | -22.77M | -136.26M | -190.83M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 236.21M | 131.66M | -11.81M | -103.02M | -171.48M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -189.53M | -66.62M | -78.69M | -631.85M | -20.04M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 29.93M | 27.10M | 21.00M | 14.21M | 701.64M |
Samsara Technical Analysis
Negative
30.47
Price Trends
29.68
Positive
33.42
Negative
35.60
Negative
Market Momentum
0.20
Positive
45.76
Neutral
46.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IOT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 30.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.12, above the 50-day MA of 29.68, and below the 200-day MA of 35.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IOT.
Samsara Risk Analysis
Samsara disclosed 84 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Samsara reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Samsara Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $17.69B | -1,764.42 | -0.72% | ― | 28.96% | 84.06% | |
74 Outperform | $138.61B | 71.18 | 15.49% | ― | 15.30% | -60.71% | |
72 Outperform | $61.95B | 31.84 | 123.64% | ― | 14.78% | 22.52% | |
70 Outperform | $107.34B | -686.05 | -4.68% | ― | 22.05% | -341.24% | |
66 Neutral | $22.85B | -232.70 | -3.48% | ― | 23.24% | -8.83% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
57 Neutral | $76.13B | -671.68 | -7.48% | ― | 28.06% | -7.44% |
* Technology Sector Average
IOT
Samsara
30.47
-8.99
-22.78%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.