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CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD)
NASDAQ:CRWD
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CrowdStrike Holdings
(NASDAQ:CRWD)
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Select Model
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$429.00
▲(5.23% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/04/26
The score is led by strong financial quality in cash generation and balance sheet strength, reinforced by upbeat guidance and ARR momentum from the latest earnings call. These positives are tempered by weak technical trend signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and an unfavorable valuation signal from a negative P/E and no dividend yield support.
Positive Factors
Strong recurring ARR scale
CrowdStrike's $5.25B ARR at ~24% growth reflects a large, subscription-based revenue base that provides durable revenue visibility and predictable renewal streams. Scale reduces per-customer sales/marketing intensity, enabling sustained investment in product and go-to-market for multi-year growth.
High customer retention and upsell
115% net retention and 97% gross retention indicate strong product stickiness and effective upsell, which support long-term revenue expansion within the installed base. High retention reduces acquisition pressure and underpins margin sustainability as revenue per customer grows over time.
Robust cash generation and margins
Exceptional operating and free cash flow despite recent GAAP losses shows the business converts subscription sales to cash efficiently. Strong FCF funds R&D, acquisitions, and buybacks while supporting a conservatively improving balance sheet and long-term financial flexibility.
Negative Factors
Uneven GAAP profitability
Despite top-line scale and strong non-GAAP metrics, recurring GAAP losses and negative EBITDA in FY2026 show earnings volatility. Persistent GAAP losses can constrain returns on equity, complicate investor assessment, and make sustained margin improvement dependent on execution versus accounting adjustments.
Acquisition integration costs; low near-term ARR
Material integration expenses with minimal immediate ARR contribution highlight execution risk: acquisitions may pressure near-term operating leverage while native integration takes time. If synergies are slow, ROI on deals could erode free cash flow and margin expansion over multiple quarters.
Structural competitive risk from AI/LLMs
Rapid AI/LLM adoption is a structural industry shift that could lower barriers and commoditize certain security workflows. CrowdStrike's long-term defensibility depends on sustaining its sensor/data moat and product differentiation; failure to do so risks margin pressure and slower ARR expansion.
CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$98.68B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.90
Revenue Growth22.05%
EPS Growth-341.24%
CountryUS
Employees10,118
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.12
Shares Outstanding252,098,430
10 Day Avg. Volume6,055,198
30 Day Avg. Volume4,061,041
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.82
Price to Book (P/B)25.18
Price to Sales (P/S)23.17
P/FCF Ratio85.09
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue20.44
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit27.36
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.51K
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$481.21Price Target Upside18.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering34
EPS Forecast (FY)4.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.86B
CrowdStrike Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. provides cloud-delivered protection across endpoints and cloud workloads, identity, and data. It offers threat intelligence, managed security services, IT operations management, threat hunting, Zero Trust identity protection, and log management. The company primarily sells subscriptions to its Falcon platform and cloud modules through its direct sales team that leverages its network of channel partners. It serves customers worldwide. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Austin, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyCrowdStrike generates revenue primarily through a subscription-based model, where customers pay for access to its Falcon platform and its suite of cybersecurity services. The company offers various subscription tiers based on the level of protection and number of endpoints secured, allowing for scalability according to customer needs. Key revenue streams include the sale of endpoint protection subscriptions, managed threat hunting services, and additional modules that provide specialized capabilities such as identity protection and cloud security. Additionally, CrowdStrike has formed significant partnerships with major technology firms and cybersecurity organizations, which help expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings. The company also benefits from a growing demand for cybersecurity solutions driven by increasing cyber threats and regulatory compliance requirements across industries.
CrowdStrike Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCrowdStrike Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents strong, broad-based operational momentum: record quarterly and annual ARR growth, milestone scale (crossing $5.25B ARR), accelerating net new ARR (Q4 +47% YoY), improving margins and record free cash flow and operating income. Product and go-to-market successes — notably Falcon Flex adoption, Next-Gen SIEM/cloud/identity expansion, endpoint acceleration driven by AI, partner marketplace traction with AWS and Microsoft, and early traction for AIDR — underpin the growth thesis. Manageable near-term negatives include integration costs and limited immediate contribution from recent acquisitions, accounting changes that boost non-GAAP metrics, seasonal second-quarter weakness, and ongoing market/competitive risks from rapid AI/LLM evolution. Overall the positive operational and financial momentum significantly outweighs these manageable near-term headwinds.Q4-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Net New ARR and FY Milestone
Q4 net new ARR of $330.7M (reported as $331M), up 47% year-over-year; FY '26 net new ARR of $1.01B, up 25% year-over-year — the first year delivering over $1B of net new ARR.
ARR Scale and Growth
Ending ARR reached $5.25B, crossing the $5B milestone and accelerating to 24% year-over-year growth.
Strong Revenue and Subscription Growth
Q4 total revenue of $1.31B, up 23% year-over-year; subscription revenue $1.24B, up 23% year-over-year; professional services $63.1M, up 26% year-over-year.
Record Profitability and Cash Flow
Q4 non-GAAP operating income of $325.8M (25% operating margin) and Q4 free cash flow of $376.4M (29% of revenue). FY '26 operating income of $1.05B and record free cash flow of $1.24B (26% of revenue).
High Retention Metrics
Dollar-based net retention of 115% and gross retention of 97%, indicating durable customer stickiness at >$5B ARR scale.
Falcon Flex Adoption and Expansion
Flex cohort ending ARR $1.69B, growing >120% year-over-year; over 1,600 Flex customers (added 350+ in Q4); >380 re-Flex accounts (23% of Flex base) with an average ARR lift of 26% within ~7 months; nearly 100 multi-time re-Flex customers with an additional average 48% ARR lift.
Product Portfolio Acceleration — Cloud, Identity, SIEM
Combined Next-Gen Identity, cloud and Next-Gen SIEM ending ARR >$1.9B, growing >45% year-over-year. Next-Gen SIEM grew >75% year-over-year to ending ARR >$585M. Cloud ending ARR exceeded $800M, up >35% year-over-year. Next-Gen Identity ended FY '26 >$520M ARR, up >34% year-over-year.
Endpoint and AI-related Security Momentum
Endpoint business accelerated for the second consecutive quarter amid AI proliferation; sensors detected >1,800 distinct AI applications and ~160M unique application instances across the customer base. Newly launched AIDR grew >5x versus prior quarter in its first weeks.
Partner and Marketplace Expansion
Nearly $1.5B total contract value transacted on the AWS marketplace in the past year (≈50% year-over-year growth); CrowdStrike is now available on the Microsoft marketplace, enabling Azure consumption commitments for Falcon.
Record Gross Margins and Q4 EPS
Q4 non-GAAP gross margin at a record 79% (subscription gross margin 81%); Q4 non-GAAP net income $289.1M and non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.12, exceeding guidance. Q4 GAAP net income was $38.7M.
Strong Balance Sheet and Cash Position
Cash and cash equivalents increased to $5.23B; record operating cash flow of $497.9M in Q4; share repurchases of ~144,000 shares with ~$950M remaining authorization.
Negative Updates
Acquisition Integration Costs and Limited Near-Term Organic Contribution
Recent acquisitions (SGNL and Seraphic) are expected to contribute only $5M–$8M of acquired net new ARR in Q1 and minimal organic contribution for the remainder of FY '27 as CrowdStrike prioritizes native integration; integration-related operating expenses are expected to be $74M–$80M in FY '27.
Increased Operating Expense Push from Integrations
Company disclosed incremental acquisition/integration operating expense of $74M–$80M in FY '27 which will partially offset the benefit from sales commission amortization change and could pressure near-term operating leverage if integration synergies are slower to materialize.
Accounting and Assumption Changes
Beginning Q1, sales commission amortization is being changed from 4 to 5 years, expected to benefit non-GAAP operating income by $85M–$95M in FY '27 — an accounting change that boosts non-GAAP profitability metrics but is a non-cash timing adjustment investors should note.
Seasonality and Q2 Weakness
Company expects FY '27 net new ARR seasonality similar to FY '26 (≈41% H1 / 59% H2) with Q2 remaining the seasonally lowest quarter, indicating uneven intra-year cash flow and ARR additions.
Market & Competitive Risks Related to AI/LLMs
Management acknowledged market questions around the role of frontier LLMs and potential commoditization of certain workflows; while positioning CrowdStrike as differentiated by sensor and expert data, broader LLM adoption creates competitive uncertainty that requires continued product and data moat execution.
GAAP vs Non-GAAP Divergence
Q4 GAAP net income ($38.7M) is materially lower than non-GAAP net income ($289.1M), reflecting significant adjustments and underscoring that non-GAAP results exclude notable items that investors should consider when evaluating core earnings.
Company Guidance
CrowdStrike guided Q1 FY27 ARR of $5.502–$5.504 billion (≈24% YoY), implying net new ARR of $249–$251 million (≈29–30% YoY), total revenue of $1.360–$1.364 billion (≈23–24% YoY), non‑GAAP operating income of $308–$310 million, non‑GAAP net income attributable of $275–$277 million and diluted non‑GAAP EPS of $1.06–$1.07 (using a 21.0% tax rate and ~259M diluted shares); for full FY27 they guided ARR of $6.466–$6.516 billion (23–24% YoY), net new ARR of $1.213–$1.264 billion (20–25% YoY), total revenue of $5.868–$5.928 billion (22–23% growth), non‑GAAP operating income of $1.422–$1.462 billion, non‑GAAP net income of $1.241–$1.271 billion and non‑GAAP EPS of $4.78–$4.90 (21.0% tax rate, ~260M shares); additional assumptions include Q1 free cash flow margin ~33% and ≥30% for the year, FCF seasonal mix 43% H1/57% H2 (Q2 seasonally lowest), capex 7–8% of revenue (front‑loaded), interest income $160–$170 million, partner rebates ≈0.8% of revenue, a change in sales commission amortization to 5 years boosting FY27 non‑GAAP operating income by $85–$95 million, incremental acquisition‑related operating expenses of $74–$80 million (SGNL, Seraphic, Onum, Pangea), SGNL+Seraphic estimated to add $5–$8 million of acquired ARR in Q1, and approximately $950 million remaining on the share repurchase authorization after ~144k shares bought.CrowdStrike Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong scaling profile driven by rapid revenue growth and durable gross margins, plus standout cash generation (FY2026 operating cash flow $1.6B and free cash flow $1.3B). The main offset is uneven profitability (losses in FY2025–FY2026 and negative EBITDA in FY2026), despite an improving and conservatively levered balance sheet.Income Statement
Revenue scaled rapidly over the period, reaching $4.8B in FY2026, with consistently strong gross margins (~73–75%). However, profitability is uneven: the company swung from a modest profit in FY2024 back to losses in FY2025–FY2026, and EBITDA also turned negative in FY2026. Overall, strong top-line momentum and pricing power are clear, but the recent step-back in bottom-line performance keeps the score from being higher.63
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks conservative and improving, with debt-to-equity declining meaningfully over time (from ~0.89 in FY2021 to ~0.19 in FY2026) while equity expanded substantially. The main weakness is shareholder returns: return on equity is negative in FY2025–FY2026 due to net losses, after being positive in FY2024. Overall, the balance sheet appears well-capitalized with manageable debt, but earnings volatility is the key risk.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a standout: operating cash flow rose to $1.6B and free cash flow to $1.3B in FY2026, with free cash flow growth accelerating. Importantly, free cash flow remains strong even while net income is negative, indicating the business is converting sales into cash effectively. The primary watch item is that cash flow relative to revenue is not provided here, and net losses persisting could eventually pressure sentiment despite healthy cash generation.86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.81B | 3.95B | 3.06B | 2.24B | 1.45B |
| Gross Profit | 3.59B | 2.96B | 2.30B | 1.64B | 1.07B |
| EBITDA | -254.52M | 294.80M | 293.83M | -40.75M | -65.98M |
| Net Income | -161.16M | -19.27M | 89.33M | -183.25M | -234.80M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 11.09B | 8.70B | 6.65B | 5.03B | 3.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.23B | 4.32B | 3.47B | 2.71B | 2.00B |
| Total Debt | 820.08M | 788.90M | 792.87M | 783.62M | 774.72M |
| Total Liabilities | 6.61B | 5.38B | 4.31B | 3.54B | 2.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.43B | 3.28B | 2.30B | 1.46B | 1.03B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.31B | 1.07B | 929.10M | 674.57M | 441.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.61B | 1.38B | 1.17B | 941.01M | 574.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -764.48M | -536.59M | -340.65M | -556.66M | -564.52M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 132.45M | 107.21M | 93.16M | 77.44M | 72.53M |
CrowdStrike Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
407.68
Price Trends
436.83
Negative
476.65
Negative
469.25
Negative
Market Momentum
-18.39
Negative
44.99
Neutral
44.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CRWD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 407.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 396.11, below the 50-day MA of 436.83, and below the 200-day MA of 469.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -18.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CRWD.
CrowdStrike Holdings Risk Analysis
CrowdStrike Holdings disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CrowdStrike Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CrowdStrike Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $60.01B | 31.84 | 135.72% | ― | 14.78% | 22.52% | |
72 Outperform | $127.37B | 71.18 | 16.26% | ― | 15.30% | -60.71% | |
69 Neutral | $98.68B | -691.75 | -8.88% | ― | 22.05% | -341.24% | |
66 Neutral | $24.87B | -232.70 | -3.56% | ― | 23.24% | -8.83% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
57 Neutral | $65.43B | -671.68 | -8.16% | ― | 28.06% | -7.44% | |
57 Neutral | $4.51B | -24.63 | -25.79% | ― | 24.09% | -34.25% |
* Technology Sector Average
CRWD
CrowdStrike Holdings
391.42
25.98
7.11%
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81.10
-25.70
-24.06%
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Palo Alto Networks
156.09
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-41.78
-21.27%
NET
Cloudflare
178.91
35.16
24.46%
S
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13.27
-6.82
-33.95%
CrowdStrike Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
CrowdStrike Grants CEO New Performance-Based Equity Award
Positive
Dec 29, 2025
On December 22, 2025, CrowdStrike’s independent directors approved a new performance-based equity award for President and CEO George Kurtz under the company’s 2019 Equity Incentive Plan, granting a target of 300,000 performance stock units that may yield no shares if total shareholder return over three years ranks below the 25th percentile of the S&P 500, or up to 600,000 shares if returns reach at least the 90th percentile. The board framed the award as a long-term retention and incentive mechanism tightly linked to relative stock performance, citing Kurtz’s role in driving revenue growth from $250 million in fiscal 2019 to $3.95 billion in fiscal 2025, ARR expansion to $4.9 billion as of October 31, 2025, a non-GAAP operating margin improvement to 22.3%, and a 1,321% share price gain since the IPO, as it seeks to keep him leading CrowdStrike’s push toward $20 billion in ARR amid intensifying AI-driven cybersecurity threats and strong competition for top industry talent.
The most recent analyst rating on (CRWD) stock is a Buy with a $613.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CrowdStrike Holdings stock, see the CRWD Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.