Shift4 Payments (FOUR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.35B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.39M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.96
• Revenue Growth: 27.39%
• EPS Growth: 115.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,000
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 1.07
• Shares Outstanding: 67,471,350
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,575,388
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,391,404
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.25
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $115.11
• Price Target Upside: 38.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20

Shift4 Payments demonstrates robust financial growth with strong revenue and cash flow metrics. The company's strategic acquisitions and expansion efforts are positive, but high leverage and profitability challenges present risks. Technical analysis suggests caution, and the valuation is moderate. The overall stock score reflects these strengths and risks, indicating a strong but cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Earnings Report

Shift4 Payments' share price surged by 12.6% due to a strong 1Q25 report and optimistic guidance for the rest of the year.

Market Diversification

The company's increased diversification into stadiums and unified commerce has bolstered management's confidence and outlook.

Strategic Positioning

Shift4 Payments is well-positioned with a $35bn merchant volume backlog and strong market presence among larger merchants.

Negative Factors

Execution Risk

Amid the CEO transition and pending Global Blue integration, there is potential for execution risk.

Market Competition

The merchant processing market is becoming increasingly commoditized, posing challenges to differentiation.

Shift4 Payments Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Shift4 Payments (FOUR) is a leading provider of integrated payment processing and technology solutions. The company operates in the financial technology sector, offering a range of services tailored to meet the needs of various industries, including hospitality, retail, and e-commerce. Shift4 Payments provides end-to-end payment solutions that enable businesses to securely process transactions, manage point-of-sale systems, and enhance operational efficiencies.

How the Company Makes Money

Shift4 Payments generates revenue through a combination of transaction-based fees and subscription services. The company earns money primarily by charging merchants a percentage of each transaction processed through its platform. Additionally, Shift4 Payments offers value-added services such as point-of-sale software, payment terminals, and analytics tools, which contribute to its revenue. Key partnerships with banks, financial institutions, and technology providers further strengthen its market presence and enhance its service offerings, driving additional revenue streams.

Shift4 Payments Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Shift4 Payments is performing well with strong revenue growth and cash flow metrics. Despite the positive trends, the company faces profitability challenges related to negative EBITDA and high leverage, which need to be addressed to ensure long-term financial health. The balance sheet reflects significant debt, requiring strategic management to maintain stability.

Income Statement

Shift4 Payments shows strong revenue growth with a notable increase of 31.1% from 2022 to 2023. The gross profit margin for the TTM is approximately 28.2%, reflecting stable profitability. However, the negative EBITDA margin in the TTM indicates challenges in operating efficiency. Overall, the company is on a solid growth path, but profitability improvements are needed.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.58, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. The return on equity for the TTM stands at 27.1%, showcasing strong returns for shareholders. While the equity ratio is 16.1%, indicating moderate stability, the high leverage warrants careful monitoring.

Cash Flow

Shift4 Payments demonstrates robust cash flow management with a free cash flow growth rate of 68.8% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.47, indicating efficient conversion of profits to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.40, suggesting healthy cash generation relative to earnings. Overall, the cash flow position is strong and supports ongoing operations.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.33B	2.56B	1.99B	1.37B	766.90M
	Gross Profit
773.60M	687.80M	470.20M	278.40M	177.80M
	EBIT
247.00M	114.80M	58.10M	-49.00M	-63.70M
	EBITDA
356.80M	366.20M	268.50M	55.30M	10.60M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
229.60M	86.20M	75.10M	-74.00M	-111.40M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.21B	455.00M	776.50M	1.23B	927.80M
	Total Assets
5.04B	3.39B	2.55B	2.34B	1.78B
	Total Debt
2.88B	1.78B	1.77B	1.76B	1.01B
	Net Debt
1.67B	1.32B	988.80M	529.70M	78.50M
	Total Liabilities
4.02B	2.52B	2.07B	1.94B	1.11B
	Stockholders Equity
806.60M	653.30M	347.30M	272.80M	459.60M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
310.60M	250.70M	-104.60M	-56.30M	-9.50M
	Operating Cash Flow
500.30M	388.30M	275.40M	29.20M	23.40M
	Investing Cash Flow
-691.10M	-301.90M	-516.80M	-196.70M	-102.10M
	Financing Cash Flow
929.20M	-152.20M	-214.60M	471.20M	1.00B

Shift4 Payments Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 82.93
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOUR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 82.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 80.32, below the 50-day MA of 84.41, and below the 200-day MA of 92.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FOUR.

Shift4 Payments Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PAYC	78 Outperform	$13.18B	25.49	34.88%	0.66%	11.19%	51.03%
FOUR	76 Outperform	$7.35B	28.05	30.28%	―	27.39%	115.40%
PAYO	74 Outperform	$2.61B	22.10	15.97%	―	17.64%	30.75%
PAY	73 Outperform	$4.39B	87.96	10.80%	―	47.78%	74.61%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$10.77B	10.41	-6.71%	2.99%	7.69%	-13.12%
SATS	42 Neutral	$6.85B	―	-0.60%	―	-6.99%	91.98%

Shift4 Payments Corporate Events

Shift4 Payments Launches Public Offering for Expansion

On April 30, 2025, Shift4 Payments announced the launch of a public offering of 7,500,000 shares of Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, with an option for underwriters to purchase an additional 1,125,000 shares. The proceeds from this offering, along with additional financing and cash reserves, are intended to fund the acquisition of Global Blue Group Holding AG and other corporate purposes, including debt repayment and growth initiatives. This move is part of Shift4’s strategic efforts to strengthen its market position and expand its operational capabilities.

Spark’s Take on FOUR Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, FOUR is a Outperform.

Shift4 Payments is showing robust financial growth and improving profitability, which are strong positives. The earnings call provided an optimistic outlook with raised guidance and successful international expansion. However, technical indicators suggest some caution due to bearish momentum, and the valuation is moderate, lacking a dividend yield. These factors collectively result in a strong but cautious stock score.

To see Spark’s full report on FOUR stock, click here.

Shift4 Payments CEO Nominated as NASA Administrator

On March 12, 2025, Jared Isaacman, CEO of Shift4 Payments, submitted an Ethics Agreement to NASA as part of his nomination as NASA Administrator by President Trump. To avoid conflicts of interest, Isaacman will reduce his voting power in Shift4 Payments to 25% by surrendering high-vote shares but will retain his equity interests. He will resign from his positions at Shift4 Payments and its subsidiaries upon confirmation.

Shift4 Payments Announces Acquisition of Global Blue

On February 16, 2025, Shift4 Payments entered into a Transaction Agreement to acquire Global Blue, with a definitive agreement announced on February 18, 2025. The acquisition aims to enhance Shift4’s unified commerce capabilities and expand its reach in the retail and hospitality sectors by integrating Global Blue’s technology solutions, focusing on tax refund and currency conversion. The transaction, valued at approximately $2.5 billion, includes a tender offer for all outstanding shares of Global Blue at a premium to its closing share price, and is expected to close by the third quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approvals and other customary conditions.

Shift4 Payments Enhances Director Compensation Policy

On February 16, 2025, Shift4 Payments’ Board of Directors approved changes to the Non-Employee Director Compensatory Policy, increasing annual cash retainers for various board committee roles and introducing equity-based awards. These changes are effective immediately and aim to enhance the company’s governance structure. Additionally, Seth Dallaire was appointed as a Class II director effective February 20, 2025, with a term ending at the 2025 annual stockholders meeting. Dallaire will participate in the revised compensation policy, indicating a strategic focus on leadership and governance.