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Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR)
:FOUR
US Market
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Shift4 Payments (FOUR) AI Stock Analysis

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FOUR

Shift4 Payments

(NYSE:FOUR)

Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$96.00
▼(-6.07% Downside)
Shift4 Payments' overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, highlighting growth and strategic expansion. However, technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and valuation concerns due to a high P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield moderate the score.
Positive Factors
Growth Opportunities
The ability to sell DCC into Shift4’s installed base is considered relatively low-hanging fruit, suggesting a potential growth opportunity.
Market Valuation
The stock appears attractively valued at about 9.5x our first cut at 2026 EBITDA with the stock trading at $94.
Strategic Leadership
The roles allow the company to maintain course with Mr Lauber as CEO for relative stability, while benefiting from Mr Isaacman’s strategic expertise and involvement.
Negative Factors
Execution Risks
Amid the CEO transition, pending Global Blue integration, and an ample roster of organic initiatives, there is potential execution risk.
Integration Challenges
The greatest push back on a Shift4 investment will continue to be that the company can do M&A but has failed to demonstrate the ability to integrate and consistently operate.
Leadership Consistency
A CFO transition at this point is suboptimal and indicates a lack of consistency, as the company is now on its third CFO in five years.

Shift4 Payments (FOUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Shift4 Payments Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionShift4 Payments, Inc. provides integrated payment processing and technology solutions in the United States. It provides omni-channel card acceptance and processing solutions, including credit, debit, contactless card, Europay, Mastercard and visa, QR Pay, and mobile wallets, as well as alternative payment methods; merchant acquiring; proprietary omni-channel gateway; complementary software integrations; integrated and mobile point-of-sale (POS) solutions; security and risk management solutions; reporting and analytical tools; and web-store design, hosting, shopping cart management, and fulfillment integration, as well as tokenization, payment device and chargeback management, fraud prevention, and gift card solutions. The company also offers VenueNext that provides mobile ordering, countertop POS, and self-service kiosk services, as well as digital wallet to facilitate food and beverage, merchandise, and loyalty for stadium and entertainment venues; and Shift4Shop, which offers eCommerce solutions, including website builder, shopping cart, product catalog, order management, marketing, search engine optimization, secure hosting, and mobile webstores. In addition, it provides Lighthouse, a cloud-based business intelligence tool that includes customer engagement, social media management, online reputation management, scheduling, and product pricing, as well as reporting and analytics; SkyTab, a hybrid-cloud-based integrated POS solution; SkyTab Mobile, a mobile payment solution; and marketplace technology for integrations into third-party applications. Further, the company offers merchant management, training and education, marketing management, and incentives tracking solutions. Additionally, it provides merchant underwriting, onboarding and activation, training, risk management, and support services; and software integrations and compliance management, and partner support and services. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Allentown, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyShift4 Payments generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged to merchants for processing payments. The company earns a percentage of each transaction processed through its integrated payment platform, which includes both card-present and card-not-present transactions. Additionally, Shift4 provides value-added services such as point-of-sale hardware and software, which contribute to its revenue streams. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and integrations with various technology providers and software vendors, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base.

Shift4 Payments Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
End to End Payment Volume
End to End Payment Volume
Measures the total dollar amount processed through Shift4's payment platform, indicating the company's market reach, transaction growth, and overall business momentum.
Chart InsightsShift4 Payments continues its robust growth trajectory, with a 35% year-over-year increase in payment volumes to $45 billion in Q1 2025. This growth is fueled by successful cross-selling and international expansion, despite macroeconomic uncertainties and legacy revenue deprecation. The company’s strategic acquisitions, like Global Blue, are expected to unlock significant synergies, enhancing revenue and EBITDA margins. As Shift4 expands its global footprint, its focus on improving margins through operational efficiencies and acquisitions positions it well for sustained growth.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Shift4 Payments Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 0.00%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, successful global expansion, and strategic acquisitions, while also acknowledging challenges in integrating Global Blue and managing currency fluctuations. The positive achievements overshadowed the challenges, indicating a robust overall performance.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Payment Volumes
Shift4 reported a 25% year-over-year growth in payment volumes, reaching $50 billion, marking the first quarter to achieve this milestone.
Strong Financial Performance
The company's gross revenue less network fees grew by 29% year-over-year to $413 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 26% to $205 million with margins of 49.6%.
Global Expansion Success
Shift4 expanded its presence in European markets, onboarding over 1,000 new merchants per month, and signed a pending acquisition of Smartpay to enhance its distribution network.
Acquisition and Integration of Global Blue
The acquisition of Global Blue closed in early July, adding over 2,000 colleagues and providing strategic shareholders like Ant International and Tencent. The acquisition is expected to contribute $300 million in gross revenue less network fees and $125 million in adjusted EBITDA for the year.
Successful Capital Raise
Shift4 diversified its capital structure with a $3.3 billion raise, funding the Global Blue acquisition and retiring near-term debt maturities.
Subscription and Other Revenues Growth
Subscription and other revenues grew by 37% year-over-year to $97.7 million, setting a Q2 record.
Negative Updates
Challenges with Global Blue Integration
The integration of Global Blue presents challenges due to its size, geographic distance, and different business model, which could lead to strategic missteps if not managed carefully.
Impact of Currency Fluctuations
Currency fluctuations, particularly related to the U.S. dollar and Chinese currency, have affected spending patterns and could impact Global Blue's performance.
Operational Lowlights in Vectron Integration
The formal control of the Vectron business completed in Q2 faced slower production ramps than initially expected, highlighting operational challenges in the integration process.
Company Guidance
During Shift4's second-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance showcasing significant growth across key metrics. Payment volumes increased by 25% year-over-year to $50 billion, marking the first quarter above this threshold. Gross revenue less network fees rose 29% to $413 million, while adjusted EBITDA grew by 26% to $205 million, with an impressive adjusted EBITDA margin of 49.6%. Subscription and other revenues also saw a substantial increase, growing 37% year-over-year to $97.7 million. The company highlighted its international expansion, with a focus on Europe and a recent acquisition in Australia and New Zealand, contributing to stronger-than-expected spreads of 62.6 basis points, ahead of their full-year guidance. In addition, Shift4 raised their full-year guidance, expecting gross revenue less network fees between $1.965 billion and $2.035 billion, representing 45% to 50% growth, with adjusted EBITDA anticipated to be between $965 million and $990 million, reflecting 42% to 46% growth.

Shift4 Payments Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Shift4 Payments is experiencing strong revenue growth and robust cash flow management. The income statement reflects a significant increase in revenue, but challenges remain with negative EBITDA margins. The balance sheet shows high leverage, which poses a risk. However, cash flow performance is strong, indicating good cash generation relative to earnings.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Shift4 Payments shows strong revenue growth with a notable increase of 31.1% from 2022 to 2023. The gross profit margin for the TTM is approximately 28.2%, reflecting stable profitability. However, the negative EBITDA margin in the TTM indicates challenges in operating efficiency. Overall, the company is on a solid growth path, but profitability improvements are needed.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.58, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. The return on equity for the TTM stands at 27.1%, showcasing strong returns for shareholders. While the equity ratio is 16.1%, indicating moderate stability, the high leverage warrants careful monitoring.
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
Shift4 Payments demonstrates robust cash flow management with a free cash flow growth rate of 68.8% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.47, indicating efficient conversion of profits to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.40, suggesting healthy cash generation relative to earnings. Overall, the cash flow position is strong and supports ongoing operations.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.64B3.33B2.56B1.99B1.37B766.90M
Gross Profit810.50M973.10M687.80M470.20M278.40M177.80M
EBITDA206.00M356.80M366.20M268.50M55.30M10.60M
Net Income256.80M229.60M86.20M75.10M-48.90M-18.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.99B5.04B3.39B2.55B2.34B1.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.03B1.21B455.00M776.50M1.23B927.80M
Total Debt3.77B2.88B1.78B1.77B1.76B1.01B
Total Liabilities4.97B4.02B2.52B2.07B1.94B1.11B
Stockholders Equity1.59B806.60M653.30M347.30M272.80M459.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow591.10M310.60M250.70M-104.60M-56.30M-9.50M
Operating Cash Flow566.00M500.30M388.30M275.40M29.20M23.40M
Investing Cash Flow-441.80M-691.10M-301.90M-516.80M-196.70M-102.10M
Financing Cash Flow2.66B929.20M-152.20M-214.60M471.20M1.00B

Shift4 Payments Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price102.20
Price Trends
50DMA
98.47
Negative
100DMA
90.99
Negative
200DMA
97.52
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.06
Positive
RSI
24.76
Positive
STOCH
30.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOUR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 102.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 103.51, above the 50-day MA of 98.47, and above the 200-day MA of 97.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.76 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FOUR.

Shift4 Payments Risk Analysis

Shift4 Payments disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Shift4 Payments reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Shift4 Payments Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$5.84B21.7322.19%-1.62%36.57%
77
Outperform
$2.35B21.7413.86%13.02%-2.57%
76
Outperform
$2.93B22.9426.10%
75
Outperform
$3.78B12.6325.83%8.71%
71
Outperform
$7.56B30.4619.00%27.39%115.40%
65
Neutral
$2.62B55.735.01%-8.44%
62
Neutral
£517.09M24.54-6.45%2.78%3.08%-16.36%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
FOUR
Shift4 Payments
86.43
15.73
22.25%
EEFT
Euronet Worldwide
92.09
-5.64
-5.77%
WEX
WEX
170.45
-3.57
-2.05%
PAYO
Payoneer
6.50
-0.21
-3.13%
MQ
Marqeta
5.59
0.24
4.49%
DLO
DLocal
10.28
2.81
37.62%

Shift4 Payments Corporate Events

Delistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingM&A Transactions
Shift4 Payments Expands Credit Facility and Completes Acquisition
Positive
Jul 3, 2025

On June 30, 2025, Shift4 Payments, LLC, entered into an amendment to its credit agreement, increasing its revolving credit facility by $100 million and establishing a $1 billion term loan facility, effective July 3, 2025. These financial arrangements are aimed at enhancing Shift4’s operational flexibility and supporting its acquisition of Global Blue Group Holding AG, which was completed with a cash offer totaling approximately $2.7 billion. The acquisition, funded through a combination of cash, credit facilities, and issuance of preferred stock and senior notes, enables Shift4 to expand its market presence and streamline operations, with plans to delist Global Blue from the NYSE and integrate it into its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOUR) stock is a Buy with a $92.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shift4 Payments stock, see the FOUR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Shift4 Payments Announces CEO Transition to Taylor Lauber
Neutral
Jun 4, 2025

On June 4, 2025, Shift4 Payments announced the resignation of Jared Isaacman as CEO, effective June 5, 2025, with his transition to Executive Chairman. Taylor Lauber, the company’s President, will assume the CEO role, marking a strategic leadership transition aimed at driving the company’s next growth phase. The company also terminated a restructuring transaction agreement due to unmet conditions, maintaining Isaacman’s voting shares and previously announced structural changes.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOUR) stock is a Buy with a $90.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shift4 Payments stock, see the FOUR Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A Transactions
Shift4 Payments Completes Issuance of Senior Notes
Positive
May 16, 2025

On May 16, 2025, Shift4 Payments, LLC and its subsidiary completed the issuance and sale of €680 million in 5.500% Senior Notes due 2033 and $550 million in 6.750% Senior Notes due 2032. The proceeds will be used for the Global Blue merger, redemption of 2026 notes, and general corporate purposes. This strategic financial move is expected to support Shift4’s growth initiatives and strengthen its market position, although there are no assurances regarding the redemption of the 2026 Notes.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOUR) stock is a Buy with a $92.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shift4 Payments stock, see the FOUR Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A Transactions
Shift4 Payments Announces Senior Notes Offering for Acquisition
Positive
May 8, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Shift4 Payments, Inc. announced the pricing of €680 million in senior notes due 2033 and a $550 million tack-on offering of senior notes due 2032. The proceeds will be used for the acquisition of Global Blue Group Holding AG, redemption of existing notes, and other corporate purposes. This move is expected to enhance Shift4’s financial flexibility and support its strategic growth initiatives.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 06, 2025