Shift4 Payments (FOUR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.24B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.99M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.58
• Revenue Growth: 23.16%
• EPS Growth: 27.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,000
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 1.47
• Shares Outstanding: 67,564,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,632,466
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,989,398
• PEG Ratio: 0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.71
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.11
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.93
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.61
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.01
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.11
• 1Y Price Target: $87.69
• Price Target Upside: 49.92% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $59.00 ▲(0.87% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/04/26

The score is driven by solid underlying financial performance (strong profitability at the gross level and sharply improved free cash flow) and a positive earnings backdrop with growth targets and customer wins. This is materially tempered by weak technicals (price well below key moving averages with negative MACD) and balance-sheet leverage, while valuation is only moderately supportive and offers no dividend cushion.

Positive Factors

Free cash flow growth

A 183.5% TTM rise in free cash flow signals durable cash generation that supports reinvestment, M&A, debt reduction and the $1B buyback program. Strong FCF reduces financing risk and gives management flexibility to fund long‑term growth initiatives and margin expansion.

Revenue and gross margin improvement

Consistent revenue growth with improving gross margin indicates scalable core processing economics and operating leverage. A stable mid/high gross margin (30.6%) supports sustainable profitability as volumes and higher‑value services (software, analytics) scale over the medium term.

Strategic M&A and customer wins

Successful integration of Global Blue and recent customer contracts show the company is executing strategic acquisitions and cross‑selling at scale. These moves diversify revenue by geography and product, deepen merchant relationships, and improve long‑term market positioning across travel, hospitality and retail.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Leverage at a D/E ~2.4 leaves the company sensitive to rate moves and constrained in downturns despite recent refinancing. High debt weighting increases interest and refinancing risk, limits capital allocation optionality, and amplifies earnings volatility if volumes or spreads compress.

Net margin pressure

A lower net margin versus prior year suggests pressure from integration costs, interest expense or operational leverage limits. Sustained margin compression would weaken earnings resiliency and reduce free cash conversion over time, constraining funding for growth or debt paydown.

Leadership and governance transition

Resignation of the founder and a planned Up‑C collapse and equity conversion are material governance changes. They alter board control, voting arrangements and incentive structures during a sensitive integration/scale phase, creating execution and oversight risk while roles and incentives are rebalanced.

Shift4 Payments Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Shift4 Payments, Inc. provides integrated payment processing and technology solutions in the United States. It provides omni-channel card acceptance and processing solutions, including credit, debit, contactless card, Europay, Mastercard and visa, QR Pay, and mobile wallets, as well as alternative payment methods; merchant acquiring; proprietary omni-channel gateway; complementary software integrations; integrated and mobile point-of-sale (POS) solutions; security and risk management solutions; reporting and analytical tools; and web-store design, hosting, shopping cart management, and fulfillment integration, as well as tokenization, payment device and chargeback management, fraud prevention, and gift card solutions. The company also offers VenueNext that provides mobile ordering, countertop POS, and self-service kiosk services, as well as digital wallet to facilitate food and beverage, merchandise, and loyalty for stadium and entertainment venues; and Shift4Shop, which offers eCommerce solutions, including website builder, shopping cart, product catalog, order management, marketing, search engine optimization, secure hosting, and mobile webstores. In addition, it provides Lighthouse, a cloud-based business intelligence tool that includes customer engagement, social media management, online reputation management, scheduling, and product pricing, as well as reporting and analytics; SkyTab, a hybrid-cloud-based integrated POS solution; SkyTab Mobile, a mobile payment solution; and marketplace technology for integrations into third-party applications. Further, the company offers merchant management, training and education, marketing management, and incentives tracking solutions. Additionally, it provides merchant underwriting, onboarding and activation, training, risk management, and support services; and software integrations and compliance management, and partner support and services. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Allentown, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Shift4 Payments generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged to merchants for processing payments. The company earns a percentage of each transaction, which varies based on the payment method and volume. Additional revenue streams include subscription fees for software services, equipment sales, and value-added services such as fraud protection and analytics. Partnerships with banks, payment networks, and technology providers further enhance Shift4's offerings, allowing the company to expand its market reach and drive additional revenue. The company also benefits from a growing trend toward digital payments and e-commerce, which increases transaction volumes and, consequently, revenue.

Shift4 Payments Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength (85) is supported by solid TTM revenue growth (7.41%) and improved gross margin (30.55%), while cash flow is strong (78) with sharply higher free cash flow (+183.5%). The main offset is balance-sheet risk (70) from still-elevated leverage (debt-to-equity 2.37) despite improvement.

Income Statement

Shift4 Payments shows strong revenue growth with a TTM growth rate of 7.41%, indicating a positive trajectory. The gross profit margin has improved to 30.55% in the TTM, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin decreased slightly to 6.11% from the previous year, suggesting some pressure on net profitability. Overall, the company demonstrates robust revenue growth and improving operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 2.37 in the TTM, down from 3.57 the previous year, indicating better leverage management. Return on equity is strong at 21.96%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio remains relatively low at 18.57%, suggesting a higher reliance on debt financing. The balance sheet shows improvement in leverage but still carries some risk due to the debt levels.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has grown significantly by 183.5% in the TTM, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.38, indicating a healthy conversion of net income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.87, reflecting efficient cash management. Overall, the cash flow statement highlights strong cash generation and effective cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.88B	3.33B	2.56B	1.99B	1.37B	766.90M
Gross Profit	1.26B	973.10M	687.80M	470.20M	278.40M	177.80M
EBITDA	772.40M	356.80M	366.20M	268.50M	55.30M	10.60M
Net Income	194.80M	229.60M	86.20M	75.10M	-48.90M	-18.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.99B	5.04B	3.39B	2.55B	2.34B	1.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.51B	1.21B	455.00M	776.50M	1.23B	927.80M
Total Debt	4.79B	2.88B	1.78B	1.77B	1.76B	1.01B
Total Liabilities	6.76B	4.02B	2.52B	2.07B	1.94B	1.11B
Stockholders Equity	1.67B	806.60M	653.30M	347.30M	272.80M	459.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	499.40M	310.60M	250.70M	-104.60M	-56.30M	-9.50M
Operating Cash Flow	555.70M	500.30M	388.30M	275.40M	29.20M	23.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.04B	-691.10M	-301.90M	-516.80M	-196.70M	-102.10M
Financing Cash Flow	2.57B	929.20M	-152.20M	-214.60M	471.20M	1.00B

Shift4 Payments Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 58.49
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOUR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 58.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.88, below the 50-day MA of 62.81, and below the 200-day MA of 80.28, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FOUR.

Shift4 Payments Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DLO	73 Outperform	$3.68B	21.71	35.56%	―	22.02%	12.42%
FOUR	68 Neutral	$5.24B	27.46	15.52%	―	23.16%	27.38%
PAYO	67 Neutral	$1.97B	28.57	9.79%	―	10.58%	-45.52%
EEFT	66 Neutral	$2.99B	10.22	24.39%	―	7.25%	-1.12%
WEX	66 Neutral	$5.46B	18.19	22.33%	―	-1.15%	-2.52%
MQ	66 Neutral	$1.80B	-51.81	-4.10%	―	20.11%	-391.61%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

Shift4 Payments Corporate Events

Shift4 Payments Reprices Term Loan to Lower Interest

On January 5, 2026, Shift4 Payments, LLC and certain wholly owned subsidiaries executed a third amendment to their Second Amended and Restated First Lien Credit Agreement to reprice the company’s senior secured term loan facility. The amendment refinanced and replaced all outstanding term loans with new Amendment No. 3 Refinancing Term Loans, keeping the core terms substantially the same but reducing the interest margins on SOFR-based loans from a range of 2.50%–2.75% to 2.00%, and on alternate base rate loans from 1.50%–1.75% to 1.00%. Following the amendment, Shift4, LLC had approximately $997.5 million of outstanding refinancing term loans and no outstanding revolving loans, a move that is expected to lower interest expense and improve the company’s capital structure while leaving other material provisions of the credit agreement unchanged.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOUR) stock is a Hold with a $72.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shift4 Payments stock, see the FOUR Stock Forecast page.

Shift4 Payments Announces Leadership Change and Governance Shift

On December 18, 2025, Shift4 Payments announced that founder Jared Isaacman was sworn in as the 15th Administrator of NASA following his U.S. Senate confirmation vote on December 17, 2025, prompting his resignation as Executive Chairman, Class I director, and member of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, with Taylor Lauber simultaneously appointed as Chairman of the Board. In connection with ethics commitments tied to his new federal role, Isaacman agreed to limit and reconfigure how he votes his significant equity stake and to pursue, within 60 days of starting at NASA, the conversion of his remaining Shift4 equity interests into Class A shares and termination of a tax receivable agreement to collapse the company’s Up-C structure, a series of changes that will result in Shift4 no longer qualifying as a “controlled company” under New York Stock Exchange corporate governance standards, with implications for its board independence and oversight framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOUR) stock is a Buy with a $100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shift4 Payments stock, see the FOUR Stock Forecast page.

Shift4 Payments Issues €435M Senior Notes for Growth

On December 8, 2025, Shift4 Payments, LLC and Shift4 Payments Finance Sub, Inc., subsidiaries of Shift4 Payments, Inc., completed the issuance of €435 million in 5.500% Senior Notes due 2033, raising approximately $507 million after expenses. The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, including debt repayment, acquisitions, and growth initiatives. The issuance strengthens Shift4’s financial position and provides flexibility for strategic investments, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOUR) stock is a Buy with a $82.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shift4 Payments stock, see the FOUR Stock Forecast page.

Shift4 Payments Announces €435 Million Senior Notes Offering

On December 3, 2025, Shift4 Payments, Inc. announced the pricing of a €435 million tack-on offering of 5.500% senior notes due 2033 by its subsidiaries. The new notes, priced at 102.50%, will be treated as a single class with existing notes and are intended for qualified institutional buyers and certain persons outside the U.S. The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, including debt repayment, acquisitions, growth initiatives, and potential share repurchases.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOUR) stock is a Hold with a $74.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shift4 Payments stock, see the FOUR Stock Forecast page.