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Shift4 Payments (FOUR)
NYSE:FOUR
US Market

Shift4 Payments (FOUR) AI Stock Analysis

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Shift4 Payments

(NYSE:FOUR)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$101.00
▲(6.11%Upside)
Shift4 Payments demonstrates strong growth in revenue and cash flow, supported by strategic acquisitions and expansion. However, high leverage and profitability challenges due to negative EBITDA need careful management. The stock's valuation is high, but the raised guidance and strategic initiatives offer potential for future growth.
Positive Factors
Financial Guidance
Management offered a couple of positive surprises by raising their full-year 2025 guidance for gross revenue less network fees and adjusted EBITDA while stating that they had yet to see any impact on the company’s payment volumes due to reduced consumer spending.
Leadership
Mr. Isaacman’s return to FOUR would be well-received by investors, as his strategic vision has fueled FOUR’s growth since he started the company in 1999.
Market Position
FOUR currently has a merchant volume backlog of more than $35bn, indicating a strong position in the market.
Negative Factors
Execution Risk
Amid the CEO transition uncertainty, pending Global Blue integration and an ample roster of organic initiatives, there is potential execution risk.
Leadership Changes
The White House unexpectedly withdrew its nomination of Jared Isaacman to lead NASA following a thorough review of prior associations.

Shift4 Payments (FOUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Shift4 Payments Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionShift4 Payments, Inc. provides integrated payment processing and technology solutions in the United States. It provides omni-channel card acceptance and processing solutions, including credit, debit, contactless card, Europay, Mastercard and visa, QR Pay, and mobile wallets, as well as alternative payment methods; merchant acquiring; proprietary omni-channel gateway; complementary software integrations; integrated and mobile point-of-sale (POS) solutions; security and risk management solutions; reporting and analytical tools; and web-store design, hosting, shopping cart management, and fulfillment integration, as well as tokenization, payment device and chargeback management, fraud prevention, and gift card solutions. The company also offers VenueNext that provides mobile ordering, countertop POS, and self-service kiosk services, as well as digital wallet to facilitate food and beverage, merchandise, and loyalty for stadium and entertainment venues; and Shift4Shop, which offers eCommerce solutions, including website builder, shopping cart, product catalog, order management, marketing, search engine optimization, secure hosting, and mobile webstores. In addition, it provides Lighthouse, a cloud-based business intelligence tool that includes customer engagement, social media management, online reputation management, scheduling, and product pricing, as well as reporting and analytics; SkyTab, a hybrid-cloud-based integrated POS solution; SkyTab Mobile, a mobile payment solution; and marketplace technology for integrations into third-party applications. Further, the company offers merchant management, training and education, marketing management, and incentives tracking solutions. Additionally, it provides merchant underwriting, onboarding and activation, training, risk management, and support services; and software integrations and compliance management, and partner support and services. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Allentown, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyShift4 Payments generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged to merchants for processing payments. The company earns a percentage of each transaction processed through its integrated payment platform, which includes both card-present and card-not-present transactions. Additionally, Shift4 provides value-added services such as point-of-sale hardware and software, which contribute to its revenue streams. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and integrations with various technology providers and software vendors, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base.

Shift4 Payments Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
End to End Payment Volume
End to End Payment Volume
Measures the total dollar amount processed through Shift4's payment platform, indicating the company's market reach, transaction growth, and overall business momentum.
Chart InsightsShift4 Payments continues its robust growth trajectory, with a 35% year-over-year increase in payment volumes to $45 billion in Q1 2025. This growth is fueled by successful cross-selling and international expansion, despite macroeconomic uncertainties and legacy revenue deprecation. The company’s strategic acquisitions, like Global Blue, are expected to unlock significant synergies, enhancing revenue and EBITDA margins. As Shift4 expands its global footprint, its focus on improving margins through operational efficiencies and acquisitions positions it well for sustained growth.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Shift4 Payments Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 19.48%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call showcased significant growth in volumes, revenue, and EBITDA, driven by successful cross-selling and international expansion, despite some macroeconomic uncertainties and impacts from legacy revenue deprecation.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Year-over-Year Volume Growth
Volumes increased 35% year-over-year to $45 billion, reflecting stable trends across all end markets.
Gross Revenue Growth
Gross revenue less network fees increased 40% to $369 million, with net revenue growing faster than volumes.
Adjusted EBITDA Performance
Adjusted EBITDA increased 38% to $169 million, surpassing the guidance of 45% with a 46% margin.
Successful Cross-Selling and Acquisitions
More than $20 million in EBITDA synergies achieved across recent acquisitions such as Revel, Givex, and Eigen.
Global Expansion
Operating in six continents, with over 1,000 restaurant sign-ups per month internationally, indicating strong international growth.
Negative Updates
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Despite stable consumer spending trends, there is ongoing concern about macroeconomic factors such as new tariffs and political rhetoric.
Interest Payments Impacting Free Cash Flow
First cash interest payment of $37 million on debt issued last August impacted the adjusted free cash flow conversion rate.
Legacy Revenue Deprecation
Subscription and other revenue sequentially moderated from Q4 due to ongoing deprecation of legacy revenue from recent acquisitions.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, Shift4 Payments, Inc. reported a 35% year-over-year increase in volumes to $45 billion and a 40% rise in gross revenue less network fees, reaching $369 million. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 38% to $169 million, with a margin of 46%, slightly surpassing the guidance of 45%. The company raised its full-year 2025 guidance, forecasting gross revenue less network fees between $1.66 billion and $1.73 billion, representing 23% to 28% growth, and adjusted EBITDA between $840 million and $865 million, reflecting 24% to 28% growth. They anticipate margins will improve as synergies from recent acquisitions are unlocked, expecting full-year spreads of approximately 60 basis points. Shift4 also highlighted its acquisition of Global Blue, aiming for $80 million in revenue synergies by 2027, and emphasized its strategy of cross-selling and expanding internationally, with a presence now in six continents.

Shift4 Payments Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Shift4 Payments shows strong revenue growth and cash flow metrics. Despite these positive trends, the company faces profitability challenges related to negative EBITDA and high leverage, which need to be addressed to ensure long-term financial health. The balance sheet reflects significant debt, requiring strategic management to maintain stability.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Shift4 Payments shows strong revenue growth with a notable increase of 31.1% from 2022 to 2023. The gross profit margin for the TTM is approximately 28.2%, reflecting stable profitability. However, the negative EBITDA margin in the TTM indicates challenges in operating efficiency. Overall, the company is on a solid growth path, but profitability improvements are needed.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.58, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. The return on equity for the TTM stands at 27.1%, showcasing strong returns for shareholders. While the equity ratio is 16.1%, indicating moderate stability, the high leverage warrants careful monitoring.
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
Shift4 Payments demonstrates robust cash flow management with a free cash flow growth rate of 68.8% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.47, indicating efficient conversion of profits to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.40, suggesting healthy cash generation relative to earnings. Overall, the cash flow position is strong and supports ongoing operations.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
3.47B3.33B2.56B1.99B1.37B766.90M
Gross Profit
939.60M773.60M687.80M470.20M278.40M177.80M
EBIT
251.00M247.00M114.80M58.10M-49.00M-63.70M
EBITDA
-365.60M356.80M366.20M268.50M55.30M10.60M
Net Income Common Stockholders
218.35M229.60M86.20M75.10M-74.00M-111.40M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
580.20M1.21B455.00M776.50M1.23B927.80M
Total Assets
3.41B5.04B3.39B2.55B2.34B1.78B
Total Debt
1.78B2.88B1.78B1.77B1.76B1.01B
Net Debt
1.20B1.67B1.32B988.80M529.70M78.50M
Total Liabilities
2.51B4.02B2.52B2.07B1.94B1.11B
Stockholders Equity
674.50M806.60M653.30M347.30M272.80M459.60M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
472.50M310.60M250.70M-104.60M-56.30M-9.50M
Operating Cash Flow
540.20M500.30M388.30M275.40M29.20M23.40M
Investing Cash Flow
-736.40M-691.10M-301.90M-516.80M-196.70M-102.10M
Financing Cash Flow
878.30M929.20M-152.20M-214.60M471.20M1.00B

Shift4 Payments Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price95.18
Price Trends
50DMA
84.36
Positive
100DMA
94.57
Positive
200DMA
94.30
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.64
Negative
RSI
65.78
Neutral
STOCH
84.93
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOUR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 95.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 89.72, above the 50-day MA of 84.36, and above the 200-day MA of 94.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.93 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FOUR.

Shift4 Payments Risk Analysis

Shift4 Payments disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Shift4 Payments reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
The market price of our common stock may decline as a result of the completion of the Transactions. Q4, 2024
2.
If Shift4 enters into a DPLTA with Vectron, the Company may be subject to certain risks that could adversely affect its business, financial condition or results of operations. Q4, 2024
3.
The announcement and pendency of the Offer and the Merger may have an adverse effect on our business and results of operations, and our failure to complete the transactions completed by the Transaction Agreement could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations, and stock price. Q4, 2024

Shift4 Payments Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$15.01B37.0524.99%0.58%9.86%-14.34%
77
Outperform
$8.41B32.1030.28%27.39%115.40%
74
Outperform
$4.09B-1.66%15.72%74.59%
PAPAY
73
Outperform
$4.97B97.7510.80%47.78%74.61%
70
Outperform
$2.45B22.4415.97%14.86%-0.94%
61
Neutral
$11.55B10.41-6.86%2.93%7.50%-8.30%
43
Neutral
$5.23B-1.08%-23.85%88.39%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
FOUR
Shift4 Payments
95.18
24.38
34.44%
SATS
Echostar
16.15
-3.69
-18.60%
PAYC
Paycom
263.80
120.51
84.10%
PAYO
Payoneer
6.71
0.78
13.15%
PAY
Paymentus Holdings
38.72
19.45
100.93%
PYCR
Paycor HCM
22.49
10.49
87.42%

Shift4 Payments Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingM&A Transactions
Shift4 Payments Completes Issuance of Senior Notes
Positive
May 16, 2025

On May 16, 2025, Shift4 Payments, LLC and its subsidiary completed the issuance and sale of €680 million in 5.500% Senior Notes due 2033 and $550 million in 6.750% Senior Notes due 2032. The proceeds will be used for the Global Blue merger, redemption of 2026 notes, and general corporate purposes. This strategic financial move is expected to support Shift4’s growth initiatives and strengthen its market position, although there are no assurances regarding the redemption of the 2026 Notes.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOUR) stock is a Buy with a $92.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shift4 Payments stock, see the FOUR Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A Transactions
Shift4 Payments Announces Senior Notes Offering for Acquisition
Positive
May 8, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Shift4 Payments, Inc. announced the pricing of €680 million in senior notes due 2033 and a $550 million tack-on offering of senior notes due 2032. The proceeds will be used for the acquisition of Global Blue Group Holding AG, redemption of existing notes, and other corporate purposes. This move is expected to enhance Shift4’s financial flexibility and support its strategic growth initiatives.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Shift4 Payments Launches Public Offering for Expansion
Positive
Apr 30, 2025

On April 30, 2025, Shift4 Payments announced the launch of a public offering of 7,500,000 shares of Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, with an option for underwriters to purchase an additional 1,125,000 shares. The proceeds from this offering, along with additional financing and cash reserves, are intended to fund the acquisition of Global Blue Group Holding AG and other corporate purposes, including debt repayment and growth initiatives. This move is part of Shift4’s strategic efforts to strengthen its market position and expand its operational capabilities.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Shift4 Payments CEO Nominated as NASA Administrator
Neutral
Mar 18, 2025

On March 12, 2025, Jared Isaacman, CEO of Shift4 Payments, submitted an Ethics Agreement to NASA as part of his nomination as NASA Administrator by President Trump. To avoid conflicts of interest, Isaacman will reduce his voting power in Shift4 Payments to 25% by surrendering high-vote shares but will retain his equity interests. He will resign from his positions at Shift4 Payments and its subsidiaries upon confirmation.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.