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Shift4 Payments (FOUR)
NYSE:FOUR
US Market

Shift4 Payments (FOUR) AI Stock Analysis

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Shift4 Payments

(NYSE:FOUR)

Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$107.00
▲(9.14%Upside)
Shift4 Payments benefits from strong financial performance with notable revenue and cash flow growth, supported by a positive earnings call and strategic corporate events. However, high leverage and valuation premiums present potential risks that need careful management.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
FOUR is tracking well against its guidance and mid-term outlook, which should be well received in the current environment.
Leadership Transition
Taylor Lauber will officially assume the CEO position, while Jared Isaacman will become Executive Chairman and continue to contribute to substantial projects, capital allocation, and M&A at FOUR.
Strategic Positioning
FOUR's prospects would be enhanced significantly by Mr. Isaacman’s continued focus on its strategic positioning, especially considering the two decades during which he has led the company’s aggressive scaling and its expansion into industry verticals including restaurants, hospitality, and sports arenas.
Negative Factors
Execution Risk
Amid the CEO transition, pending Global Blue integration, and an ample roster of organic initiatives, there is potential execution risk.
Share Structure
A streamlined share class/corporate (TRA) structure will not occur for now.

Shift4 Payments (FOUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Shift4 Payments Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionShift4 Payments, Inc. provides integrated payment processing and technology solutions in the United States. It provides omni-channel card acceptance and processing solutions, including credit, debit, contactless card, Europay, Mastercard and visa, QR Pay, and mobile wallets, as well as alternative payment methods; merchant acquiring; proprietary omni-channel gateway; complementary software integrations; integrated and mobile point-of-sale (POS) solutions; security and risk management solutions; reporting and analytical tools; and web-store design, hosting, shopping cart management, and fulfillment integration, as well as tokenization, payment device and chargeback management, fraud prevention, and gift card solutions. The company also offers VenueNext that provides mobile ordering, countertop POS, and self-service kiosk services, as well as digital wallet to facilitate food and beverage, merchandise, and loyalty for stadium and entertainment venues; and Shift4Shop, which offers eCommerce solutions, including website builder, shopping cart, product catalog, order management, marketing, search engine optimization, secure hosting, and mobile webstores. In addition, it provides Lighthouse, a cloud-based business intelligence tool that includes customer engagement, social media management, online reputation management, scheduling, and product pricing, as well as reporting and analytics; SkyTab, a hybrid-cloud-based integrated POS solution; SkyTab Mobile, a mobile payment solution; and marketplace technology for integrations into third-party applications. Further, the company offers merchant management, training and education, marketing management, and incentives tracking solutions. Additionally, it provides merchant underwriting, onboarding and activation, training, risk management, and support services; and software integrations and compliance management, and partner support and services. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Allentown, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyShift4 Payments generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged to merchants for processing payments. The company earns a percentage of each transaction processed through its integrated payment platform, which includes both card-present and card-not-present transactions. Additionally, Shift4 provides value-added services such as point-of-sale hardware and software, which contribute to its revenue streams. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and integrations with various technology providers and software vendors, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base.

Shift4 Payments Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
End to End Payment Volume
End to End Payment Volume
Measures the total dollar amount processed through Shift4's payment platform, indicating the company's market reach, transaction growth, and overall business momentum.
Chart InsightsShift4 Payments continues its robust growth trajectory, with a 35% year-over-year increase in payment volumes to $45 billion in Q1 2025. This growth is fueled by successful cross-selling and international expansion, despite macroeconomic uncertainties and legacy revenue deprecation. The company’s strategic acquisitions, like Global Blue, are expected to unlock significant synergies, enhancing revenue and EBITDA margins. As Shift4 expands its global footprint, its focus on improving margins through operational efficiencies and acquisitions positions it well for sustained growth.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Shift4 Payments Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 23.07%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call showcased significant growth in volumes, revenue, and EBITDA, driven by successful cross-selling and international expansion, despite some macroeconomic uncertainties and impacts from legacy revenue deprecation.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Year-over-Year Volume Growth
Volumes increased 35% year-over-year to $45 billion, reflecting stable trends across all end markets.
Gross Revenue Growth
Gross revenue less network fees increased 40% to $369 million, with net revenue growing faster than volumes.
Adjusted EBITDA Performance
Adjusted EBITDA increased 38% to $169 million, surpassing the guidance of 45% with a 46% margin.
Successful Cross-Selling and Acquisitions
More than $20 million in EBITDA synergies achieved across recent acquisitions such as Revel, Givex, and Eigen.
Global Expansion
Operating in six continents, with over 1,000 restaurant sign-ups per month internationally, indicating strong international growth.
Negative Updates
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Despite stable consumer spending trends, there is ongoing concern about macroeconomic factors such as new tariffs and political rhetoric.
Interest Payments Impacting Free Cash Flow
First cash interest payment of $37 million on debt issued last August impacted the adjusted free cash flow conversion rate.
Legacy Revenue Deprecation
Subscription and other revenue sequentially moderated from Q4 due to ongoing deprecation of legacy revenue from recent acquisitions.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, Shift4 Payments, Inc. reported a 35% year-over-year increase in volumes to $45 billion and a 40% rise in gross revenue less network fees, reaching $369 million. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 38% to $169 million, with a margin of 46%, slightly surpassing the guidance of 45%. The company raised its full-year 2025 guidance, forecasting gross revenue less network fees between $1.66 billion and $1.73 billion, representing 23% to 28% growth, and adjusted EBITDA between $840 million and $865 million, reflecting 24% to 28% growth. They anticipate margins will improve as synergies from recent acquisitions are unlocked, expecting full-year spreads of approximately 60 basis points. Shift4 also highlighted its acquisition of Global Blue, aiming for $80 million in revenue synergies by 2027, and emphasized its strategy of cross-selling and expanding internationally, with a presence now in six continents.

Shift4 Payments Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Shift4 Payments exhibits strong revenue growth with a 31.1% increase from 2022 to 2023. While cash flow is robust with a free cash flow growth rate of 68.8%, the company faces profitability challenges due to a negative EBITDA margin and high leverage.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Shift4 Payments shows strong revenue growth with a notable increase of 31.1% from 2022 to 2023. The gross profit margin for the TTM is approximately 28.2%, reflecting stable profitability. However, the negative EBITDA margin in the TTM indicates challenges in operating efficiency. Overall, the company is on a solid growth path, but profitability improvements are needed.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.58, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. The return on equity for the TTM stands at 27.1%, showcasing strong returns for shareholders. While the equity ratio is 16.1%, indicating moderate stability, the high leverage warrants careful monitoring.
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
Shift4 Payments demonstrates robust cash flow management with a free cash flow growth rate of 68.8% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.47, indicating efficient conversion of profits to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.40, suggesting healthy cash generation relative to earnings. Overall, the cash flow position is strong and supports ongoing operations.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.47B3.33B2.56B1.99B1.37B766.90M
Gross Profit939.60M773.60M687.80M470.20M278.40M177.80M
EBITDA-365.60M356.80M366.20M268.50M55.30M10.60M
Net Income218.35M229.60M86.20M75.10M-74.00M-111.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.00B5.04B3.39B2.55B2.34B1.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.17B1.21B455.00M776.50M1.23B927.80M
Total Debt2.88B2.88B1.78B1.77B1.76B1.01B
Total Liabilities3.99B4.02B2.52B2.07B1.94B1.11B
Stockholders Equity805.20M806.60M653.30M347.30M272.80M459.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow472.50M310.60M250.70M-104.60M-56.30M-9.50M
Operating Cash Flow540.20M500.30M388.30M275.40M29.20M23.40M
Investing Cash Flow-736.40M-691.10M-301.90M-516.80M-196.70M-102.10M
Financing Cash Flow878.30M929.20M-152.20M-214.60M471.20M1.00B

Shift4 Payments Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price98.04
Price Trends
50DMA
88.43
Positive
100DMA
91.65
Positive
200DMA
95.41
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.76
Negative
RSI
64.34
Neutral
STOCH
88.19
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOUR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 98.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 94.06, above the 50-day MA of 88.43, and above the 200-day MA of 95.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.19 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FOUR.

Shift4 Payments Risk Analysis

Shift4 Payments disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Shift4 Payments reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Shift4 Payments Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$8.55B33.1630.28%27.39%115.40%
74
Outperform
$4.09B-1.66%15.72%74.59%
71
Outperform
$12.88B33.5524.99%0.67%9.86%-14.34%
69
Neutral
$2.44B22.6115.97%14.86%-0.94%
PAPAY
68
Neutral
$4.22B85.1310.80%47.78%74.61%
63
Neutral
$32.90B6.03-11.70%1.95%5.55%-19.87%
51
Neutral
$7.08B-1.08%-23.85%88.39%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
FOUR
Shift4 Payments
98.04
24.69
33.66%
SATS
Echostar
25.46
7.65
42.95%
PAYC
Paycom
225.46
83.44
58.75%
PAYO
Payoneer
6.82
1.28
23.10%
PAY
Paymentus Holdings
33.72
14.72
77.47%
PYCR
Paycor HCM, Inc.
22.49
9.79
77.09%

Shift4 Payments Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Shift4 Payments Announces CEO Transition to Taylor Lauber
Neutral
Jun 4, 2025

On June 4, 2025, Shift4 Payments announced the resignation of Jared Isaacman as CEO, effective June 5, 2025, with his transition to Executive Chairman. Taylor Lauber, the company’s President, will assume the CEO role, marking a strategic leadership transition aimed at driving the company’s next growth phase. The company also terminated a restructuring transaction agreement due to unmet conditions, maintaining Isaacman’s voting shares and previously announced structural changes.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOUR) stock is a Buy with a $90.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shift4 Payments stock, see the FOUR Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A Transactions
Shift4 Payments Completes Issuance of Senior Notes
Positive
May 16, 2025

On May 16, 2025, Shift4 Payments, LLC and its subsidiary completed the issuance and sale of €680 million in 5.500% Senior Notes due 2033 and $550 million in 6.750% Senior Notes due 2032. The proceeds will be used for the Global Blue merger, redemption of 2026 notes, and general corporate purposes. This strategic financial move is expected to support Shift4’s growth initiatives and strengthen its market position, although there are no assurances regarding the redemption of the 2026 Notes.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOUR) stock is a Buy with a $92.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shift4 Payments stock, see the FOUR Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A Transactions
Shift4 Payments Announces Senior Notes Offering for Acquisition
Positive
May 8, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Shift4 Payments, Inc. announced the pricing of €680 million in senior notes due 2033 and a $550 million tack-on offering of senior notes due 2032. The proceeds will be used for the acquisition of Global Blue Group Holding AG, redemption of existing notes, and other corporate purposes. This move is expected to enhance Shift4’s financial flexibility and support its strategic growth initiatives.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Shift4 Payments Launches Public Offering for Expansion
Positive
Apr 30, 2025

On April 30, 2025, Shift4 Payments announced the launch of a public offering of 7,500,000 shares of Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, with an option for underwriters to purchase an additional 1,125,000 shares. The proceeds from this offering, along with additional financing and cash reserves, are intended to fund the acquisition of Global Blue Group Holding AG and other corporate purposes, including debt repayment and growth initiatives. This move is part of Shift4’s strategic efforts to strengthen its market position and expand its operational capabilities.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 24, 2025