Shift4 Payments (FOUR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.41B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.88
• Revenue Growth: 27.39%
• EPS Growth: 115.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,000
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 79
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 1.07
• Shares Outstanding: 67,471,350
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,160,095
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,094,715
• PEG Ratio: -12.88
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.89
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.58
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.97
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -8.99
• 1Y Price Target: $113.74
• Price Target Upside: 19.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $101.00 ▲(6.11%Upside)

Shift4 Payments demonstrates strong growth in revenue and cash flow, supported by strategic acquisitions and expansion. However, high leverage and profitability challenges due to negative EBITDA need careful management. The stock's valuation is high, but the raised guidance and strategic initiatives offer potential for future growth.

Positive Factors

Financial Guidance

Management offered a couple of positive surprises by raising their full-year 2025 guidance for gross revenue less network fees and adjusted EBITDA while stating that they had yet to see any impact on the company’s payment volumes due to reduced consumer spending.

Leadership

Mr. Isaacman’s return to FOUR would be well-received by investors, as his strategic vision has fueled FOUR’s growth since he started the company in 1999.

Market Position

FOUR currently has a merchant volume backlog of more than $35bn, indicating a strong position in the market.

Negative Factors

Execution Risk

Amid the CEO transition uncertainty, pending Global Blue integration and an ample roster of organic initiatives, there is potential execution risk.

Leadership Changes

The White House unexpectedly withdrew its nomination of Jared Isaacman to lead NASA following a thorough review of prior associations.

Shift4 Payments Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Shift4 Payments, Inc. provides integrated payment processing and technology solutions in the United States. It provides omni-channel card acceptance and processing solutions, including credit, debit, contactless card, Europay, Mastercard and visa, QR Pay, and mobile wallets, as well as alternative payment methods; merchant acquiring; proprietary omni-channel gateway; complementary software integrations; integrated and mobile point-of-sale (POS) solutions; security and risk management solutions; reporting and analytical tools; and web-store design, hosting, shopping cart management, and fulfillment integration, as well as tokenization, payment device and chargeback management, fraud prevention, and gift card solutions. The company also offers VenueNext that provides mobile ordering, countertop POS, and self-service kiosk services, as well as digital wallet to facilitate food and beverage, merchandise, and loyalty for stadium and entertainment venues; and Shift4Shop, which offers eCommerce solutions, including website builder, shopping cart, product catalog, order management, marketing, search engine optimization, secure hosting, and mobile webstores. In addition, it provides Lighthouse, a cloud-based business intelligence tool that includes customer engagement, social media management, online reputation management, scheduling, and product pricing, as well as reporting and analytics; SkyTab, a hybrid-cloud-based integrated POS solution; SkyTab Mobile, a mobile payment solution; and marketplace technology for integrations into third-party applications. Further, the company offers merchant management, training and education, marketing management, and incentives tracking solutions. Additionally, it provides merchant underwriting, onboarding and activation, training, risk management, and support services; and software integrations and compliance management, and partner support and services. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Allentown, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Shift4 Payments generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged to merchants for processing payments. The company earns a percentage of each transaction processed through its integrated payment platform, which includes both card-present and card-not-present transactions. Additionally, Shift4 provides value-added services such as point-of-sale hardware and software, which contribute to its revenue streams. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and integrations with various technology providers and software vendors, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base.

Shift4 Payments Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Shift4 Payments shows strong revenue growth and cash flow metrics. Despite these positive trends, the company faces profitability challenges related to negative EBITDA and high leverage, which need to be addressed to ensure long-term financial health. The balance sheet reflects significant debt, requiring strategic management to maintain stability.

Income Statement

Shift4 Payments shows strong revenue growth with a notable increase of 31.1% from 2022 to 2023. The gross profit margin for the TTM is approximately 28.2%, reflecting stable profitability. However, the negative EBITDA margin in the TTM indicates challenges in operating efficiency. Overall, the company is on a solid growth path, but profitability improvements are needed.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.58, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. The return on equity for the TTM stands at 27.1%, showcasing strong returns for shareholders. While the equity ratio is 16.1%, indicating moderate stability, the high leverage warrants careful monitoring.

Cash Flow

Shift4 Payments demonstrates robust cash flow management with a free cash flow growth rate of 68.8% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.47, indicating efficient conversion of profits to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.40, suggesting healthy cash generation relative to earnings. Overall, the cash flow position is strong and supports ongoing operations.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.47B	3.33B	2.56B	1.99B	1.37B	766.90M
	Gross Profit
939.60M	773.60M	687.80M	470.20M	278.40M	177.80M
	EBIT
251.00M	247.00M	114.80M	58.10M	-49.00M	-63.70M
	EBITDA
-365.60M	356.80M	366.20M	268.50M	55.30M	10.60M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
218.35M	229.60M	86.20M	75.10M	-74.00M	-111.40M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
580.20M	1.21B	455.00M	776.50M	1.23B	927.80M
	Total Assets
3.41B	5.04B	3.39B	2.55B	2.34B	1.78B
	Total Debt
1.78B	2.88B	1.78B	1.77B	1.76B	1.01B
	Net Debt
1.20B	1.67B	1.32B	988.80M	529.70M	78.50M
	Total Liabilities
2.51B	4.02B	2.52B	2.07B	1.94B	1.11B
	Stockholders Equity
674.50M	806.60M	653.30M	347.30M	272.80M	459.60M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
472.50M	310.60M	250.70M	-104.60M	-56.30M	-9.50M
	Operating Cash Flow
540.20M	500.30M	388.30M	275.40M	29.20M	23.40M
	Investing Cash Flow
-736.40M	-691.10M	-301.90M	-516.80M	-196.70M	-102.10M
	Financing Cash Flow
878.30M	929.20M	-152.20M	-214.60M	471.20M	1.00B

Shift4 Payments Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 95.18
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOUR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 95.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 89.72, above the 50-day MA of 84.36, and above the 200-day MA of 94.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.93 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FOUR.

Shift4 Payments Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PAYC	80 Outperform	$15.01B	37.05	24.99%	0.58%	9.86%	-14.34%
FOUR	77 Outperform	$8.41B	32.10	30.28%	―	27.39%	115.40%
PYCR	74 Outperform	$4.09B	―	-1.66%	―	15.72%	74.59%
PAY	73 Outperform	$4.97B	97.75	10.80%	―	47.78%	74.61%
PAYO	70 Outperform	$2.45B	22.44	15.97%	―	14.86%	-0.94%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$11.55B	10.41	-6.86%	2.93%	7.50%	-8.30%
SATS	43 Neutral	$5.23B	―	-1.08%	―	-23.85%	88.39%

Shift4 Payments Corporate Events

Shift4 Payments Completes Issuance of Senior Notes

On May 16, 2025, Shift4 Payments, LLC and its subsidiary completed the issuance and sale of €680 million in 5.500% Senior Notes due 2033 and $550 million in 6.750% Senior Notes due 2032. The proceeds will be used for the Global Blue merger, redemption of 2026 notes, and general corporate purposes. This strategic financial move is expected to support Shift4’s growth initiatives and strengthen its market position, although there are no assurances regarding the redemption of the 2026 Notes.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOUR) stock is a Buy with a $92.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shift4 Payments stock, see the FOUR Stock Forecast page.

Shift4 Payments Announces Senior Notes Offering for Acquisition

On May 8, 2025, Shift4 Payments, Inc. announced the pricing of €680 million in senior notes due 2033 and a $550 million tack-on offering of senior notes due 2032. The proceeds will be used for the acquisition of Global Blue Group Holding AG, redemption of existing notes, and other corporate purposes. This move is expected to enhance Shift4’s financial flexibility and support its strategic growth initiatives.

Shift4 Payments Launches Public Offering for Expansion

On April 30, 2025, Shift4 Payments announced the launch of a public offering of 7,500,000 shares of Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, with an option for underwriters to purchase an additional 1,125,000 shares. The proceeds from this offering, along with additional financing and cash reserves, are intended to fund the acquisition of Global Blue Group Holding AG and other corporate purposes, including debt repayment and growth initiatives. This move is part of Shift4’s strategic efforts to strengthen its market position and expand its operational capabilities.

Shift4 Payments CEO Nominated as NASA Administrator

On March 12, 2025, Jared Isaacman, CEO of Shift4 Payments, submitted an Ethics Agreement to NASA as part of his nomination as NASA Administrator by President Trump. To avoid conflicts of interest, Isaacman will reduce his voting power in Shift4 Payments to 25% by surrendering high-vote shares but will retain his equity interests. He will resign from his positions at Shift4 Payments and its subsidiaries upon confirmation.