Shift4 Payments (FOUR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.91B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.03M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 33.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.77
• Revenue Growth: 23.86%
• EPS Growth: 79.35%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,000
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 83
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 1.10
• Shares Outstanding: 67,291,180
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,781,756
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,032,629
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.96
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.68
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 24.78
• 1Y Price Target: $108.37
• Price Target Upside: 21.12% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 21

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $100.00 ▲(11.77% Upside)

Shift4 Payments' strong financial performance and positive earnings call outlook are the most significant factors driving the score. However, the stock's bearish technical indicators and high valuation relative to earnings limit its overall attractiveness. The company's strategic expansions and robust growth projections provide a positive long-term outlook, but current market conditions suggest caution.

Positive Factors

Growth Opportunities

Shift4 has ample opportunity to monetize its greater-than-$1-trillion potential processing base, which is only about 20% penetrated.

Leadership Stability

Executive role announcements at Shift4 are a logical positive as the roles allow the company to maintain course with Mr Lauber as CEO for relative stability, while benefiting from Mr Isaacman’s strategic expertise and involvement.

Strategic Acquisitions

The acquisition of Global Blue is seen as a positive factor for Shift4.

Negative Factors

Execution Risks

Amid the CEO transition, pending Global Blue integration, and an ample roster of organic initiatives, there is potential execution risk.

Integration Concerns

Global Blue synergies will take time to materialize and have yet to be satisfactorily quantified, which may cause concern among investors.

Leadership Changes

A CFO transition at this point is suboptimal and indicates a lack of consistency, as the company is now on its third CFO in five years.

Shift4 Payments Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Shift4 Payments, Inc. provides integrated payment processing and technology solutions in the United States. It provides omni-channel card acceptance and processing solutions, including credit, debit, contactless card, Europay, Mastercard and visa, QR Pay, and mobile wallets, as well as alternative payment methods; merchant acquiring; proprietary omni-channel gateway; complementary software integrations; integrated and mobile point-of-sale (POS) solutions; security and risk management solutions; reporting and analytical tools; and web-store design, hosting, shopping cart management, and fulfillment integration, as well as tokenization, payment device and chargeback management, fraud prevention, and gift card solutions. The company also offers VenueNext that provides mobile ordering, countertop POS, and self-service kiosk services, as well as digital wallet to facilitate food and beverage, merchandise, and loyalty for stadium and entertainment venues; and Shift4Shop, which offers eCommerce solutions, including website builder, shopping cart, product catalog, order management, marketing, search engine optimization, secure hosting, and mobile webstores. In addition, it provides Lighthouse, a cloud-based business intelligence tool that includes customer engagement, social media management, online reputation management, scheduling, and product pricing, as well as reporting and analytics; SkyTab, a hybrid-cloud-based integrated POS solution; SkyTab Mobile, a mobile payment solution; and marketplace technology for integrations into third-party applications. Further, the company offers merchant management, training and education, marketing management, and incentives tracking solutions. Additionally, it provides merchant underwriting, onboarding and activation, training, risk management, and support services; and software integrations and compliance management, and partner support and services. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Allentown, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Shift4 Payments generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged to merchants for processing payments. The company earns a percentage of each transaction processed through its integrated payment platform, which includes both card-present and card-not-present transactions. Additionally, Shift4 provides value-added services such as point-of-sale hardware and software, which contribute to its revenue streams. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and integrations with various technology providers and software vendors, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base.

Shift4 Payments Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Shift4 Payments shows strong revenue growth and robust cash flow management, with a free cash flow growth rate of 68.8%. However, the company faces challenges with a negative EBITDA margin and high leverage, which require strategic management to ensure long-term financial health.

Income Statement

Shift4 Payments shows strong revenue growth with a notable increase of 31.1% from 2022 to 2023. The gross profit margin for the TTM is approximately 28.2%, reflecting stable profitability. However, the negative EBITDA margin in the TTM indicates challenges in operating efficiency. Overall, the company is on a solid growth path, but profitability improvements are needed.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.58, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. The return on equity for the TTM stands at 27.1%, showcasing strong returns for shareholders. While the equity ratio is 16.1%, indicating moderate stability, the high leverage warrants careful monitoring.

Cash Flow

Shift4 Payments demonstrates robust cash flow management with a free cash flow growth rate of 68.8% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.47, indicating efficient conversion of profits to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.40, suggesting healthy cash generation relative to earnings. Overall, the cash flow position is strong and supports ongoing operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.61B	3.33B	2.56B	1.99B	1.37B	766.90M
Gross Profit	1.10B	973.10M	687.80M	470.20M	278.40M	177.80M
EBITDA	430.80M	356.80M	366.20M	268.50M	55.30M	10.60M
Net Income	220.50M	229.60M	86.20M	75.10M	-48.90M	-18.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.99B	5.04B	3.39B	2.55B	2.34B	1.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.03B	1.21B	455.00M	776.50M	1.23B	927.80M
Total Debt	3.77B	2.88B	1.78B	1.77B	1.76B	1.01B
Total Liabilities	5.00B	4.02B	2.52B	2.07B	1.94B	1.11B
Stockholders Equity	1.59B	806.60M	653.30M	347.30M	272.80M	459.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	490.40M	310.60M	250.70M	-104.60M	-56.30M	-9.50M
Operating Cash Flow	566.00M	500.30M	388.30M	275.40M	29.20M	23.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-441.80M	-691.10M	-301.90M	-516.80M	-196.70M	-102.10M
Financing Cash Flow	2.66B	929.20M	-152.20M	-214.60M	471.20M	1.00B

Shift4 Payments Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 89.47
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOUR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 89.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 90.09, below the 50-day MA of 96.82, and below the 200-day MA of 97.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FOUR.

Shift4 Payments Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PAYO	78 Outperform	$2.44B	25.67	13.86%	―	13.02%	-2.57%
DLO	77 Outperform	$4.17B	35.08	26.10%	―	14.70%	-18.45%
WEX	77 Outperform	$5.87B	21.64	22.19%	―	-1.62%	36.57%
EEFT	75 Outperform	$3.88B	12.95	25.94%	―	8.71%	25.75%
FOUR	73 Outperform	$7.91B	33.15	19.00%	―	23.86%	79.35%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$35.62B	7.50	-10.94%	1.87%	8.86%	-10.27%
MQ	61 Neutral	$2.80B	56.63	-6.51%	―	17.47%	-544.72%

Shift4 Payments Corporate Events

Shift4 Payments Completes Merger with Global Blue

On August 18, 2025, Shift4 Payments completed a squeeze-out merger with Global Blue, following a successful tender offer on July 3, 2025, where Shift4 acquired 97.37% of Global Blue’s shares. The merger resulted in Global Blue delisting from the NYSE and becoming a wholly-owned subsidiary of Shift4, impacting its market presence and shareholder structure.

Shift4 Payments Expands Credit Facility and Completes Acquisition

On June 30, 2025, Shift4 Payments, LLC, entered into an amendment to its credit agreement, increasing its revolving credit facility by $100 million and establishing a $1 billion term loan facility, effective July 3, 2025. These financial arrangements are aimed at enhancing Shift4’s operational flexibility and supporting its acquisition of Global Blue Group Holding AG, which was completed with a cash offer totaling approximately $2.7 billion. The acquisition, funded through a combination of cash, credit facilities, and issuance of preferred stock and senior notes, enables Shift4 to expand its market presence and streamline operations, with plans to delist Global Blue from the NYSE and integrate it into its operations.

Shift4 Payments Announces CEO Transition to Taylor Lauber

On June 4, 2025, Shift4 Payments announced the resignation of Jared Isaacman as CEO, effective June 5, 2025, with his transition to Executive Chairman. Taylor Lauber, the company’s President, will assume the CEO role, marking a strategic leadership transition aimed at driving the company’s next growth phase. The company also terminated a restructuring transaction agreement due to unmet conditions, maintaining Isaacman’s voting shares and previously announced structural changes.