Shift4 Payments (FOUR)
NYSE:FOUR
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Shift4 Payments
(NYSE:FOUR)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$43.00
▲(6.78% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/25/26
The score is driven primarily by solid operating and cash-flow performance offset by high leverage and weaker 2025 net profitability/ROE. Technicals remain a headwind with the stock below key moving averages, while valuation is demanding at ~42.5x earnings. Guidance and recent corporate actions are constructive, but execution and leverage-related risks keep the overall score in the low 60s.
Positive Factors
Revenue scale & growth
Shift4's multi-year revenue expansion to $4.18B demonstrates durable GPV and merchant scale, which supports recurring processing spreads, cross-sell of software services, and bargaining power with partners. Scale reduces unit costs and underpins sustainable top-line growth over the medium term.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Elevated leverage constrains strategic flexibility and raises sensitivity to margin or volume shocks. Higher interest and principal commitments can reduce incremental investment capacity, slow deleveraging if growth underperforms, and amplify downside risk during cyclical softness.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue scale & growth
Shift4's multi-year revenue expansion to $4.18B demonstrates durable GPV and merchant scale, which supports recurring processing spreads, cross-sell of software services, and bargaining power with partners. Scale reduces unit costs and underpins sustainable top-line growth over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Shift4 Payments (FOUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.11B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.93M
Price to Earnings (P/E)42.5
Beta (1Y)1.54
Revenue Growth23.16%
EPS Growth27.38%
CountryUS
Employees4,000
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.60
Shares Outstanding81,239,310
10 Day Avg. Volume2,921,235
30 Day Avg. Volume2,934,090
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.55
Price to Book (P/B)2.97
Price to Sales (P/S)1.03
P/FCF Ratio8.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.89
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.72
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$68.56Price Target Upside70.25% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)5.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.53B
Shift4 Payments Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Shift4 Payments, Inc. provides integrated payment processing and technology solutions in the United States. It provides omni-channel card acceptance and processing solutions, including credit, debit, contactless card, Europay, Mastercard and visa,...
How the Company Makes Money
Shift4 primarily makes money by enabling merchants to accept electronic payments and by charging fees tied to payment volume and related services. Its core revenue stream is payment processing and gateway-related economics: when a merchant process...
Shift4 Payments Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
End to End Payment Volume
Measures the total dollar amount processed through Shift4's payment platform, indicating the company's market reach, transaction growth, and overall business momentum.
Measures the total dollar amount processed through Shift4's payment platform, indicating the company's market reach, transaction growth, and overall business momentum.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyShift4 Payments Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a broadly positive picture: management reported record full-year results with high growth, strong margins and cash generation, clear 2026 guidance, and meaningful progress on M&A, international expansion and product initiatives (all-in-one terminal, DCC, AI). Notable near-term cautions include SMB same-store softness and weather impacts, a Q4 spread dip driven by enterprise mix, FX and travel headwinds affecting the Global Blue tax-free business, integration/investment costs that moderate free cash flow conversion, and a pro forma net leverage level (3.4x) slightly above the stated sustained range. Overall, the company emphasized disciplined capital allocation and execution risk management while investing to scale internationally.Positive Updates
Record Full-Year Financial Performance
Full-year gross revenue of $4.18 billion, total volume of $209 billion, and gross revenue less network fees (GRLNF) of $1.98 billion, representing 46% year-over-year growth. Adjusted EBITDA of $970 million (49% margin) and adjusted free cash flow of $500 million; adjusted EBITDA grew ~43% YoY.
Negative Updates
SMB Same-Store Sales Softness and Weather Headwinds
Management called out continued same-store sales softness among SMBs in the Americas (Triple S: restaurants, lodging, retail), with late Q4 weather events further impacting results and contributing to cautious near-term assumptions for H1 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Full-Year Financial Performance
Full-year gross revenue of $4.18 billion, total volume of $209 billion, and gross revenue less network fees (GRLNF) of $1.98 billion, representing 46% year-over-year growth. Adjusted EBITDA of $970 million (49% margin) and adjusted free cash flow of $500 million; adjusted EBITDA grew ~43% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Shift4 guided full‑year 2026 volume of $240–$260 billion (15–24% YoY) with blended spreads expected to remain above 60 bps, GRLNF of $2.50–$2.60 billion (26–31% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $1.165–$1.215 billion (20–25% YoY) — implying roughly a 47% margin; non‑GAAP EPS is $5.50–$5.70 (assumed tax rate 26%) and adjusted free cash flow is $490–$510 million with average FCF conversion ~42% (implied incremental conversion ~59%). Q1 2026 guidance is gross revenue ~$1.05 billion, GRLNF $548 million, adjusted EBITDA $233 million and adjusted FCF $70 million. Management disaggregated growth expectations: payments‑based revenue mid‑teens in the Americas and high‑20s ex‑Americas, tax‑free shopping mid‑single‑digit pro‑forma growth and subscription/other low single‑digits; the plan includes the expected Bambora close, maintains a target that net leverage not exceed ~3.0–3.25x on a sustained basis (pro‑forma year‑end 2025 leverage 3.4x), and notes 7.7 million shares repurchased YTD with $500 million remaining on the $1 billion authorization.Shift4 Payments Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.18B | 3.33B | 2.56B | 1.99B | 1.37B |
| Gross Profit | 1.43B | 973.10M | 687.80M | 470.20M | 278.40M |
| EBITDA | 817.00M | 356.80M | 366.20M | 268.50M | 55.30M |
| Net Income | 119.00M | 229.60M | 86.20M | 75.10M | -48.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 8.71B | 5.04B | 3.39B | 2.55B | 2.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 964.00M | 1.21B | 455.00M | 776.50M | 1.23B |
| Total Debt | 4.62B | 2.88B | 1.78B | 1.77B | 1.76B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.76B | 4.02B | 2.52B | 2.07B | 1.94B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.44B | 806.60M | 653.30M | 347.30M | 272.80M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 499.00M | 310.60M | 250.70M | -104.60M | -56.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 634.00M | 500.30M | 388.30M | 275.40M | 29.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.00B | -691.10M | -301.90M | -516.80M | -196.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.06B | 929.20M | -152.20M | -214.60M | 471.20M |
Shift4 Payments Technical Analysis
Negative
40.27
Price Trends
51.66
Negative
59.40
Negative
73.66
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.32
Negative
39.53
Neutral
8.98
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOUR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 40.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.93, below the 50-day MA of 51.66, and below the 200-day MA of 73.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.98 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FOUR.
Shift4 Payments Risk Analysis
Shift4 Payments disclosed 89 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Shift4 Payments reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Shift4 Payments Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $3.76B | 18.77 | 38.09% | ― | 22.02% | 12.42% | |
71 Outperform | $1.66B | 27.73 | 9.84% | ― | 10.58% | -45.52% | |
68 Neutral | $2.61B | 11.26 | 23.78% | ― | 7.25% | -1.12% | |
66 Neutral | $5.39B | 17.39 | 29.38% | ― | -1.15% | -2.52% | |
62 Neutral | $4.11B | 42.45 | 7.54% | ― | 23.16% | 27.38% | |
62 Neutral | $1.70B | -393.70 | -1.62% | ― | 20.11% | -391.61% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
FOUR
Shift4 Payments
40.27
-33.30
-45.26%
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Shift4 Payments Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Shift4 Payments Announces Chief Accounting Officer Transition
Neutral
Mar 9, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Shift4 Payments announced that Chief Accounting Officer James “Jay” Whalen will resign effective April 3, 2026, to take a role at a company outside the fintech industry, with the move described as amicable and unrelat...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Shift4 Simplifies Governance with New Isaacman Agreement
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
On December 18, 2025, founder Jared Isaacman was sworn in as the 15th NASA Administrator and resigned as Shift4 Payments’ executive chairman, triggering a broader equity and governance simplification that culminated in a February 7, 2026 tra...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.