Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR)
NYSE:FOUR
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Shift4 Payments
(NYSE:FOUR)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$45.00
▼(-9.38% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is primarily held back by mixed financial quality (TTM revenue contraction, thin net margins, and high leverage) and weak technicals (price below major moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by a strong earnings-call backdrop (reiterated FY26 growth outlook, strong Q1 profitability and cash generation) and a positive governance simplification event.
Positive Factors
Consistent free cash flow generation
Shift4 has transitioned to consistently positive and improving free cash flow since 2023, with TTM FCF up ~14.9% and FCF roughly matching net income. Durable FCF supports reinvestment in product, M&A integration, buybacks and gradual deleveraging, improving long-term financial flexibility.
Negative Factors
High financial leverage
Shift4 carries materially elevated leverage (debt-to-equity near 2.8–3.2x and pro forma net leverage ~3.7x). High leverage reduces flexibility to invest or absorb shocks, increases refinancing risk if rates rise, and constrains strategic optionality until substantial deleveraging occurs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent free cash flow generation
Shift4 has transitioned to consistently positive and improving free cash flow since 2023, with TTM FCF up ~14.9% and FCF roughly matching net income. Durable FCF supports reinvestment in product, M&A integration, buybacks and gradual deleveraging, improving long-term financial flexibility.
Read all positive factors
Shift4 Payments Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
End to End Payment Volume
Measures the total dollar amount processed through Shift4's payment platform, indicating the company's market reach, transaction growth, and overall business momentum.
Measures the total dollar amount processed through Shift4's payment platform, indicating the company's market reach, transaction growth, and overall business momentum.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyShift4 Payments (FOUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.37B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.70M
Price to Earnings (P/E)53.7
Beta (1Y)1.55
Revenue Growth28.28%
EPS Growth-72.43%
CountryUS
Employees4,000
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.90
Shares Outstanding79,328,926
10 Day Avg. Volume2,126,489
30 Day Avg. Volume1,704,271
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.55
Price to Book (P/B)2.97
Price to Sales (P/S)1.03
P/FCF Ratio8.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.36
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.79
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.22
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$62.22Price Target Upside25.30% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering21
EPS Forecast (FY)5.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.54B
Shift4 Payments Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Shift4 Payments, Inc. provides integrated payment processing and technology solutions in the United States. It provides omni-channel card acceptance and processing solutions, including credit, debit, contactless card, Europay, Mastercard and visa,...
How the Company Makes Money
Shift4 primarily makes money by enabling merchants to accept electronic payments and by charging fees tied to payment volume and related services. Its core revenue stream is payment processing and gateway-related economics: when a merchant process...
Shift4 Payments Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized durable, multi-dimensional growth with strong revenue, margin and cash generation metrics, notable international product and merchant wins, and disciplined capital allocation. Key near-term risks include travel-related headwinds to the tax-free shopping business, TFS seasonality affecting Q2 cash flow, modest same-store sales in SMB restaurants, and FX/regional volatility. On balance the positives (robust growth, high margins, international scaling and product traction) significantly outweigh the lowlights, although management remains appropriately cautious in guidance.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Gross revenue less network fees (GRLNF) of $549M grew 49% year-over-year, and gross revenue of $1.12B exceeded guidance.
Negative Updates
Travel Disruption Impacting Tax-Free Shopping (TFS)
TFS grew only 4% on a pro forma basis and experienced an estimated $4M–$6M headwind in March from the Middle East conflict; management embeds an approximate $20M travel disruption impact in Q2 GRLNF guidance.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Gross revenue less network fees (GRLNF) of $549M grew 49% year-over-year, and gross revenue of $1.12B exceeded guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Shift4 left its full‑year 2026 outlook unchanged, reiterating expected gross revenue less network fees (GRLNF) growth of 26%–31%; for Q2 management guided GRLNF of $615 million (including an approx. $20 million travel‑disruption headwind), gross revenue of $1.17 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $278 million and adjusted free cash flow of $10 million. (For reference, Q1 results were: GRLNF $549M, +49% YoY; gross revenue $1.12B; adjusted EBITDA $234M and a 43% margin, +39% YoY; adjusted free cash flow $88M, +26% YoY; volumes $56B, +24%, with blended spreads of 61 bps.) Q1 disaggregated metrics included payments‑based revenue less network fees of $345M (+25% YoY; Americas +15%, worldwide ex‑Americas +51%), subscription & other +11%, and tax‑free shopping (TFS) +4% pro forma (with an estimated $4M–$6M March headwind from the Middle East conflict); management also noted adjusted EPS $0.97, adjusted FCF of $0.95/share (98% conversion), repurchases of 5.5M shares ($600M of a $1B program), pro forma net leverage ~3.7x (intent not to exceed ~3.75x) and that TFS is H1 cash‑consumptive / H2 cash‑generative.Shift4 Payments Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.45B | 4.18B | 3.33B | 2.56B | 1.99B | 1.37B |
| Gross Profit | 1.56B | 1.43B | 973.10M | 687.80M | 470.20M | 278.40M |
| EBITDA | 862.40M | 817.00M | 356.80M | 366.20M | 268.50M | 55.30M |
| Net Income | 102.10M | 119.00M | 229.60M | 86.20M | 75.10M | -48.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.76B | 8.71B | 5.04B | 3.39B | 2.55B | 2.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.23B | 964.00M | 1.21B | 455.00M | 776.50M | 1.23B |
| Total Debt | 4.58B | 4.62B | 2.88B | 1.78B | 1.77B | 1.76B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.98B | 6.76B | 4.02B | 2.52B | 2.07B | 1.94B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.65B | 1.44B | 806.60M | 653.30M | 347.30M | 272.80M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 648.50M | 499.00M | 310.60M | 250.70M | -104.60M | -56.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 671.70M | 634.00M | 500.30M | 388.30M | 275.40M | 29.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.90B | -3.00B | -691.10M | -301.90M | -516.80M | -196.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.73B | 2.06B | 929.20M | -152.20M | -214.60M | 471.20M |
Shift4 Payments Technical Analysis
Negative
49.66
Price Trends
44.66
Negative
52.00
Negative
64.81
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.28
Positive
42.19
Neutral
20.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOUR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 49.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.82, above the 50-day MA of 44.66, and below the 200-day MA of 64.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FOUR.
Shift4 Payments Risk Analysis
Shift4 Payments disclosed 89 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Shift4 Payments reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Shift4 Payments Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $1.61B | 21.31 | 10.01% | ― | 7.19% | -36.03% | |
69 Neutral | $3.40B | 18.77 | 37.04% | ― | 46.60% | 66.04% | |
68 Neutral | $1.67B | 55.80 | 0.27% | ― | 23.39% | -94.62% | |
65 Neutral | $4.94B | 16.99 | 26.96% | ― | 3.29% | 14.76% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $3.37B | 53.67 | 6.42% | ― | 28.28% | -72.43% | |
60 Neutral | $2.63B | 20.79 | 24.04% | ― | 7.22% | 6.31% |
* Technology Sector Average
FOUR
Shift4 Payments
42.20
-45.14
-51.68%
EEFT
Euronet Worldwide
67.78
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-36.33%
WEX
WEX
144.24
11.24
8.45%
PAYO
Payoneer
4.96
-1.94
-28.12%
MQ
Marqeta
4.00
-1.21
-23.22%
DLO
DLocal
11.92
1.00
9.16%
Shift4 Payments Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Shift4 Payments Announces Chief Accounting Officer Transition
Neutral
Mar 9, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Shift4 Payments announced that Chief Accounting Officer James “Jay” Whalen will resign effective April 3, 2026, to take a role at a company outside the fintech industry, with the move described as amicable and unrelat...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Shift4 Simplifies Governance with New Isaacman Agreement
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
On December 18, 2025, founder Jared Isaacman was sworn in as the 15th NASA Administrator and resigned as Shift4 Payments’ executive chairman, triggering a broader equity and governance simplification that culminated in a February 7, 2026 tra...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.