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TPHD - ETF AI Analysis

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TPHD

Timothy Plan High Dividend Stock ETF (TPHD)

Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
TPHD’s rating suggests it is a solid but not outstanding high-dividend ETF, supported by strong holdings like Waste Management and CME Group, which bring resilient financial performance and positive growth outlooks. However, several utility and infrastructure names such as Evergy, CenterPoint Energy, and others face cash flow, liquidity, and bearish technical pressures, which limit the fund’s overall appeal. The main risk factor is its concentration in similar sectors with shared challenges like cash flow strain and bearish momentum, which could weigh on returns if conditions worsen across the group.
Positive Factors
Steady Recent Performance
The fund has shown steady gains over the past month, three months, and year-to-date, suggesting it has been holding up reasonably well in the current market.
Supportive Top Holdings
Most of the top holdings, many of which are utility and energy companies, have delivered positive returns so far this year, helping to support the ETF’s overall performance.
Defensive Sector Tilt
A large allocation to traditionally defensive sectors like utilities and consumer defensive stocks may help reduce volatility during market downturns.
Negative Factors
High U.S. Concentration
The ETF is invested almost entirely in U.S. stocks, offering very little geographic diversification outside the United States.
Sector Concentration in Utilities and Industrials
Heavy exposure to utilities and industrials means the fund could be more sensitive to sector-specific risks such as regulation, interest rates, or economic slowdowns.
Above-Average Expense Ratio
The fund’s expense ratio is on the higher side for an ETF, which can gradually reduce net returns for long-term investors.

TPHD vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

TPHD Summary

TPHD is the Timothy Plan High Dividend Stock ETF, which follows the Victory US Large Cap High Dividend Volatility Weighted BRI Index. It mainly holds large U.S. companies that pay relatively high dividends, with a big focus on utilities, industrials, and energy. Well-known names in the fund include Waste Management and CME Group. Someone might consider this ETF if they want regular income from dividends along with broad exposure to many U.S. companies, while also following ethical screens. A key risk is that dividend-paying stocks and the share price can still go up and down with the overall stock market.
How much will it cost me?The Timothy Plan High Dividend Stock ETF (TPHD) has an expense ratio of 0.52%, which means you’ll pay $5.20 per year for every $1,000 invested. This is slightly higher than average because it is actively managed to focus on high dividend-paying stocks while aligning with ethical investment principles.
What would affect this ETF?The ETF's focus on high-dividend-paying U.S. companies, particularly in sectors like utilities and energy, could benefit from stable demand and potential growth in renewable energy investments. However, rising interest rates or economic downturns might negatively impact dividend-paying stocks, especially in sectors sensitive to borrowing costs or consumer spending. Regulatory changes in energy or utilities could also influence the ETF's performance.

TPHD Top 10 Holdings

TPHD is leaning heavily on steady, dividend-rich utilities, with names like CenterPoint, Ameren, and WEC Energy setting the tone. Many of these power players have perked up recently but still show mixed or lagging trends over the past few months, so they’re more slow-and-steady than sprinting higher. CME Group and Waste Management add a bit of financial and industrial muscle, offering somewhat firmer footing. Overall, this is a U.S.-only, income-first portfolio where defensive utilities dominate both the risk and the reward story.
Name
Company Name
Weight %
Market Value
Market Cap
Yearly Gain
Overall Rating
Centerpoint Energy1.56%$5.44M$27.76B27.27%
63
Neutral
Evergy1.53%$5.32M$19.04B24.05%
62
Neutral
Ameren1.48%$5.15M$30.02B13.15%
72
Outperform
CME Group1.47%$5.14M$109.29B23.46%
74
Outperform
CMS Energy1.44%$5.03M$23.51B11.52%
67
Neutral
Waste Management1.44%$5.01M$94.59B2.98%
76
Outperform
Atmos Energy1.43%$4.98M$29.65B22.35%
66
Neutral
American Electric Power1.42%$4.94M$70.28B27.60%
69
Neutral
DTE Energy1.42%$4.93M$30.10B12.32%
65
Neutral
WEC Energy Group1.41%$4.90M$37.67B12.45%
67
Neutral

TPHD Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price
Price Trends
50DMA
39.78
Positive
100DMA
39.08
Positive
200DMA
38.34
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.83
Negative
RSI
76.96
Negative
STOCH
88.31
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in ETF analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPHD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of undefined is equal to the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.10, equal to the 50-day MA of 39.78, and equal to the 200-day MA of 38.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.96 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.31 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TPHD.

TPHD Peer Comparison

Comparison Results
Name
Price
Price Target
AUM
Expense Ratio
Overall Rating
$345.12M0.52%
$976.54M0.39%
$730.10M0.45%
$615.20M0.50%
$222.39M0.59%
$162.76M0.49%
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TPHD
Timothy Plan High Dividend Stock ETF
42.73
5.69
15.36%
RDIV
Invesco S&P Ultra Dividend Revenue ETF
DIV
Global X SuperDividend US ETF
FDV
Federated Hermes U.S. Strategic Dividend ETF
TBG
TBG Dividend Focus ETF
ELCV
Eventide High Dividend ETF
Glossary
BuyAn ETF rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the ETF is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other ETFs in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldAn ETF rated as a "Hold" s expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the ETF is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellAn ETF rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the ETF may deliver lower returns compared to other ETFs in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst ETF Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in ETFs carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: ―
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