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Evergy (EVRG)
NASDAQ:EVRG

Evergy (EVRG) AI Stock Analysis

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EVRG

Evergy

(NASDAQ:EVRG)

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Neutral 67 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$86.00
â–²(4.24% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
EVRG scores mid-to-upper range: strong forward outlook from improved guidance and multi-year load/rate-base growth catalysts supports the score, while the financial profile is held back by negative free cash flow and leverage tied to elevated capital intensity. Technicals are supportive, and valuation is fair but not clearly cheap given the P/E despite a healthy dividend.
Positive Factors
Contracted large-load agreements
The 1.9 GW of signed ESAs provide multi-year revenue visibility tied to minimum-bill protections and ramp schedules, materially reducing merchant demand risk. For a regulated utility this underpins predictable cash flows, supports discrete rate-base additions, and strengthens long-term investment planning.
Regulatory and tariff wins
LLPS tariffs and Missouri SB 4 establish premium demand rates and supportive policy for infrastructure recovery. This structural regulatory support improves cost recovery, enhances returns on new large-customer investments, and reduces regulatory execution risk across the multi-year capital cycle.
Rate-base growth and growth targets
An accelerated $21.6B capital program driving ~11.5% annualized rate-base growth creates a durable earnings growth runway. With management-stated long-term EPS targets and explicit financing plans, the business shifts toward structural growth rather than pure maintenance spending, supporting returns over 2026–2030.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative free cash flow
Consistently negative free cash flow reflects heavy ongoing capital intensity; despite rising operating cash flow, FCF deficits necessitate external financing and limit internal funding capacity. Over time this constrains flexibility for discretionary investments, dividends, or balance-sheet de‑risking.
Elevated leverage
Leverage running above equity is typical for utilities but increases sensitivity to interest rates and refinancing cycles. Elevated debt levels reduce margin for error on credit metrics, limit capacity for incremental borrowing, and raise the stakes on execution of the large capex plan.
Large financing and execution risk
The $21.6B capex program requires substantial debt and equity issuance, exposing the company to execution, timing and market-access risks. Failure to secure cost-effective financing or schedule projects efficiently could elevate interest expense, dilute shareholders, and pressure credit metrics and rates.

Evergy (EVRG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Evergy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEvergy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity in Kansas and Missouri, the United States. It generates electricity through coal, hydroelectric, landfill gas, uranium, and natural gas and oil sources, as well as solar, wind, other renewable sources. The company has approximately 10,100 circuit miles of transmission lines; 39,800 circuit miles of overhead distribution lines; and 13,000 circuit miles of underground distribution lines. It serves approximately 1,620,400 customers, including residences, commercial firms, industrials, municipalities, and other electric utilities. Evergy, Inc. was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.
How the Company Makes MoneyEvergy generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity to its customers. The company operates under a regulated business model, where it earns a return on investment based on the rates approved by state utility commissions. Key revenue streams include residential, commercial, and industrial electricity sales, which are influenced by customer demand, energy consumption patterns, and seasonal fluctuations. Additionally, Evergy may generate income from ancillary services, such as energy efficiency programs and renewable energy credits. Partnerships with renewable energy developers and investments in infrastructure enhancements also contribute to its earnings. Regulatory frameworks and rate adjustments play a significant role in determining Evergy's profitability, alongside its strategic initiatives to optimize operational efficiency and expand its clean energy portfolio.

Evergy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus or potential vulnerabilities.
Chart InsightsEvergy's revenue from the Residential and Commercial segments shows consistent growth, reflecting strong customer demand and strategic rate adjustments. The latest earnings call highlights regulatory wins and a robust economic development pipeline, which could further enhance future revenue streams. However, the Industrial and Wholesale segments face volatility, potentially due to market fluctuations and operational challenges. The company's decision to exit nonregulated ventures aims to streamline operations and reduce debt, aligning with its long-term growth strategy despite short-term earnings impacts from unfavorable weather and increased O&M costs.
Data provided by:The Fly

Evergy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call portrayed a transformative, growth-oriented company narrative: management secured binding ESAs for 1.9 GW, advanced supportive tariffs and legislation, expanded a deep 15+ GW pipeline, and raised multi-year EPS targets while outlining a funded $21.6B capital program. Near-term challenges include 2025 weather and industrial demand headwinds, higher O&M and financing costs compressing near-term EPS, and sizable financing needs that increase execution and credit sensitivity. Overall, the long-term growth and contractual protections (LLPS/ESAs) appear to materially outweigh the near-term operational and financing headwinds, giving management confidence in accelerated EPS growth beginning in 2028.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Signed Electric Service Agreements (ESAs) for Major Data Centers
Executed 4 ESAs representing 1.9 GW of steady-state peak demand (nearly a 20% increase in total peak system demand). Included 1,300 MW in the 2030 retail load growth forecast; contracts include year-by-year ramp schedules and minimum-bill protections (80% of contracted capacity) that underpin long-term revenue visibility.
Large Customer Pipeline and Load Growth Visibility
Pipeline grown to over 15 GW with Tier 1 demand of ~2.4 GW (includes the 4 ESAs and customers already in service). Management forecasts consolidated retail load growth CAGR of ~6% through 2030, with 3%–4% in 2026 and an average ~7% p.a. from 2027–2030.
Upgraded Long-Term EPS Growth Outlook
Raised long-term adjusted EPS growth target to 6%–8%+ through 2030 off a 2026 guidance midpoint of $4.24; management expects EPS growth to exceed 8% annually beginning in 2028 through 2030.
Regulatory and Policy Wins (LLPS Tariffs and Missouri SB 4)
Approved Large Load Power Service (LLPS) tariffs in Kansas and Missouri establishing premium demand rates (15%–20% higher than standard industrial demand rates) and strong customer protections (minimum bills, credit/collateral, termination fees). Missouri SB 4 passed to support infrastructure investment and extend PISA sunset to 2035.
Ambitious Capital Plan and Rate Base Growth
Rolling 5-year capital plan of ~$21.6 billion (2026–2030), a $4.1 billion increase (+24% vs prior plan), including >$3 billion of new generation investment. Plan implies 11.5% annualized rate base growth through 2030 (up from prior 8.5%).
2025 Financials — Modest Year-over-Year Earnings Improvement
Full-year 2025 adjusted earnings of $894 million ($3.83/share) vs $878 million ($3.81/share) in 2024 (+~1.8% in dollars, EPS ≈ +0.5%).
Reliability and Safety Improvements
Invested $2.8 billion in 2025 to modernize the grid; reported the strongest SAIDI performance in company history and a significant reduction in injury rate, demonstrating operational execution on reliability and safety.
Dividend and Capital Allocation Updates
Raised dividend by 4% to an annualized $2.78; board targets a lower payout ratio of 50%–60% (recently ~65%–70%) to retain earnings and support elevated investment needs.
Negative Updates
2025 Weather and Industrial Demand Headwinds
2025 results were negatively impacted by adverse weather and weak industrial demand (including volatile Q4 industrial performance), which contributed to 2025 adjusted EPS falling short of prior guidance.
Higher Operating Costs and Financing Drag on EPS
Unfavorable variances from higher O&M and increased depreciation and interest expense due to elevated infrastructure investment drove a $0.43 per share decrease in 2025 EPS. Other items reduced EPS by $0.10 and convertible-note dilution cost $0.05.
Large Capital Requirements and Financing Needs
Five‑year CapEx of $21.6B requires financing: plan assumes ~$8.4B incremental debt/hybrids and ~ $3.3B common equity needs (2026–2030) — roughly $700M–$900M equity annually 2026–2029. This elevated CapEx increases execution and financing risk.
Near-Term Rate Pressure in Missouri West
Missouri West customers may face rate increases above inflation over the next five years due to necessary dispatchable baseload generation investment, even though the company expects broader residential rates to be in line with or below inflation over time.
Credit Sensitivity / Moody's Downgrade Threshold
Management targets FFO-to-debt of ~14% through the forecast period; Moody's previously lowered the downgrade threshold from 15% to 14%, indicating tighter credit metric sensitivity amid the elevated investment cycle.
Short-Term Load Uncertainty in 2026 Forecast Inputs
Management embedded weaker 2025 industrial/residential trends into 2026 guidance; while January 2026 showed improvement, early-year load normalization remains an uncertainty that could affect near-term results.
Company Guidance
Evergy guided to a 2026 adjusted EPS midpoint of $4.24 (up from 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.83, $894M), and raised its long‑term adjusted EPS growth target to 6%–8%+ through 2030 off the $4.24 midpoint, with growth expected to exceed 8% annually beginning in 2028; 2026 guidance drivers include +$0.13 for normal weather, +$0.26 from demand growth (3%–4% weather‑normalized retail sales), +$0.35 from recovery/return on regulated investments, offset by –$0.20 for higher O&M/depreciation/interest and –$0.08 of dilution from convertibles/equity. That outlook is supported by a ~6% consolidated retail load CAGR through 2030 (3%–4% in 2026, ~7% average 2027–2030), four new ESAs totaling 1.9 GW steady‑state (1,300 MW included in 2030), a pipeline >15 GW (Tier‑1 = 2.4 GW; 2–3.5 GW in advanced talks), a $21.6B 2026–2030 capital plan (11.5% annualized rate‑base growth vs prior 8.5%), and a financing plan targeting ~14% FFO/debt, ~$13.5B cash from operations, ~$8.4B incremental debt/hybrids, ~$3.3B common equity (≈$700–$900M/year 2026–29, none assumed in 2030), a $2.78 annualized dividend (raised 4%) and a revised payout ratio target of 50%–60%.

Evergy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Steady regulated-utility revenue and solid profitability are positives, but persistent negative free cash flow from heavy CapEx and meaningfully leveraged capital structure temper the score. Reported data anomalies (notably in 2025 margins and debt) also reduce confidence in the trend quality.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Revenue has been relatively steady with modest growth most years, though the trajectory has had a couple of down years (2020 and 2023). Profitability looks solid for a regulated utility, with net margins generally in the low-to-mid teens and improving earnings versus 2023. A notable data inconsistency appears in 2025 (gross margin spikes and EBIT margin is shown as 0), which reduces confidence in that period’s margin quality and tempers the score.
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Leverage appears elevated and fairly consistent from 2020–2024, with debt running above equity (debt-to-equity ~1.18–1.41), which is common in regulated utilities but still increases sensitivity to rates and refinancing. Equity returns are steady (roughly mid-to-high single digits), indicating stable profitability on the capital base. 2025 shows an unusually low debt figure versus prior years, suggesting either a one-time change or a data issue, so the balance sheet strength is scored as moderate rather than high.
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
Operating cash flow is consistently strong and generally rising, supporting the core earnings profile. However, free cash flow is negative in most years (2021–2025) and has been meaningfully negative recently, implying heavy capital spending and/or investment needs typical of utilities. While 2025 shows stronger cash generation relative to net income, the persistent free-cash-flow deficits remain the key weakness.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.92B5.82B5.49B5.86B5.59B
Gross Profit1.91B1.90B1.67B1.70B1.74B
EBITDA2.71B2.64B2.42B2.19B2.32B
Net Income855.60M873.50M731.30M752.70M879.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets35.44B32.28B30.98B29.49B28.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments25.40M22.00M27.70M25.20M26.20M
Total Debt15.44B14.07B13.15B12.04B11.17B
Total Liabilities25.17B22.29B21.29B20.00B19.28B
Stockholders Equity10.22B9.96B9.66B9.48B9.24B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-751.70M-352.90M-353.80M-364.60M-620.80M
Operating Cash Flow2.05B1.98B1.98B1.80B1.35B
Investing Cash Flow-2.57B-2.26B-2.47B-2.15B-1.91B
Financing Cash Flow522.00M280.30M494.00M349.30M443.40M

Evergy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price82.50
Price Trends
50DMA
75.87
Positive
100DMA
75.99
Positive
200DMA
72.23
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.67
Negative
RSI
67.31
Neutral
STOCH
74.87
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EVRG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 82.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 78.85, above the 50-day MA of 75.87, and above the 200-day MA of 72.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EVRG.

Evergy Risk Analysis

Evergy disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Evergy reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Evergy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$28.64B23.498.15%3.13%8.42%32.48%
67
Neutral
$19.00B22.428.48%3.72%0.11%-0.52%
66
Neutral
$23.53B21.6512.33%3.10%10.96%-0.77%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
65
Neutral
$18.42B22.8911.30%3.11%7.76%23.48%
65
Neutral
$11.68B20.038.62%4.15%5.70%-8.25%
64
Neutral
$9.98B20.719.79%3.82%18.03%29.46%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
EVRG
Evergy
82.50
16.31
24.64%
LNT
Alliant Energy
71.63
9.87
15.98%
CMS
CMS Energy
76.78
5.84
8.24%
OGE
OGE Energy
48.39
4.84
11.11%
PNW
Pinnacle West Capital
100.05
10.50
11.73%
PPL
PPL
38.12
4.24
12.50%

Evergy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Evergy Outlines 2026 Guidance and Long-Term Growth Plan
Positive
Feb 19, 2026

On February 19, 2026, Evergy reported full-year 2025 GAAP earnings of $855.6 million, or $3.66 per share, down from $3.79 in 2024, while adjusted EPS edged up to $3.83 from $3.81 as regulated investment recovery and weather-normalized demand growth offset higher depreciation, operations, maintenance and interest costs amid milder weather. The utility declared a quarterly dividend of $0.695 per share, highlighted approval of new large load power service tariffs in Kansas and Missouri, announced electric service agreements for four major customer projects, and unveiled a $21.6 billion 2026-2030 capital plan alongside 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.14-$4.34 and a 6%-8%+ long-term earnings growth target through 2030, underscoring expectations for stronger growth, increased large-customer load and potential affordability benefits for existing customers.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVRG) stock is a Hold with a $88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evergy stock, see the EVRG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Evergy Secures New $500 Million Term Loan Facility
Positive
Feb 11, 2026

On February 11, 2026, Evergy, Inc. entered into a new $500 million unsecured term loan credit agreement with a syndicate of lenders led by Wells Fargo Bank, replacing a smaller $55 million unsecured term loan arranged in January 2026. The new facility, which matures on February 10, 2027, includes customary covenants capping the ratio of total indebtedness to total capitalization at 0.65 to 1.00 on a consolidated basis.

Evergy plans to use the proceeds for working capital, capital expenditures, permitted acquisitions and other general corporate purposes, including repaying the prior term loan in full. Concurrent with the new agreement on February 11, 2026, Evergy terminated the earlier facility, which carried no early termination penalties, signaling a refinancing that increases available liquidity and extends near-term financing flexibility without immediate added cost from the prior credit line.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVRG) stock is a Buy with a $82.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evergy stock, see the EVRG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Evergy Enters New Term Loan and Repurchases Convertible Notes
Positive
Jan 7, 2026

On January 7, 2026, Evergy entered into a $55 million unsecured term loan facility with Bank of America that matures on January 6, 2027, providing additional liquidity for working capital, capital expenditures, permitted acquisitions and other general corporate purposes under customary leverage covenants. On the same date, the utility agreed to repurchase approximately $244.1 million in principal amount of its 4.50% convertible notes due 2027 for about $302.5 million in cash, a transaction that will modestly reduce its outstanding convertible debt to roughly $1.16 billion and could influence trading dynamics in Evergy’s common stock as noteholders adjust associated hedging and arbitrage positions.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVRG) stock is a Hold with a $76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evergy stock, see the EVRG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Evergy Issues $300M First Mortgage Bonds
Positive
Dec 5, 2025

On December 5, 2025, Evergy Kansas Central issued $300 million of its First Mortgage Bonds, 5.25% Series due 2035, expanding on a previous issuance from March 2025. This move, facilitated by major financial institutions, signifies a strategic financial maneuver to consolidate its bond series, potentially enhancing its financial stability and market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVRG) stock is a Hold with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evergy stock, see the EVRG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Evergy Amends Mortgage for Greater Financial Flexibility
Neutral
Nov 25, 2025

On November 25, 2025, Evergy Kansas Central executed a Supplemental Indenture with The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company, which amends the original Mortgage and Deed of Trust from 1939. This amendment allows for the release of mortgaged property under specific conditions, the issuance of new first mortgage bonds up to 70% of the net bondable value of property additions, and the removal of several financial tests and requirements previously in place. These changes are designed to provide greater flexibility in managing the company’s financial and operational strategies, potentially impacting stakeholders by altering the company’s debt management and property release capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVRG) stock is a Buy with a $89.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evergy stock, see the EVRG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 20, 2026