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Oge Energy Corp. (OGE)
NYSE:OGE

OGE Energy (OGE) AI Stock Analysis

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OGE Energy

(NYSE:OGE)

Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$49.00
â–²(10.16%Upside)
OGE Energy's strong earnings growth and positive earnings call sentiment are the most significant factors driving the score. Financial performance is solid, although cash flow management needs attention. Technical indicators are neutral, and valuation is reasonable, making OGE a stable investment in the regulated electric industry.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
OGE has a tangible earnings revision thesis bolstered by recent legislation, positioning it as one of the few small caps with this advantage.
Legislation Impact
The recent legislation fundamentally changes OGE's ability to accelerate its CapEx program with less frequent rate filings and improved cash recovery for large gas investments.
Load Growth
OGE Energy Corp shows strong load growth momentum driven by residential and commercial classes.
Negative Factors
Credit Rating Risk
There is a potential risk of a credit rating downgrade if Moody's does not relax its downgrade threshold.
Regulatory Uncertainty
There is uncertainty and a near-term overhang on shares due to awaiting an OCC final order of the ALJ approved OK rate case settlement.

OGE Energy (OGE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

OGE Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOGE Energy Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and energy services provider that offers physical delivery and related services for electricity, natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electric energy. It provides retail electric service to approximately 879,000 customers, which covers a service area of approximately 30,000 square miles in Oklahoma and western Arkansas; and owns and operates coal-fired, natural gas-fired, wind-powered, and solar-powered generating assets. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated interconnected electric generation, transmission, and distribution systems, including 16 generating stations with an aggregate capability of 7,207 megawatts; and transmission systems comprising 54 substations and 5,122 structure miles of lines in Oklahoma, and 7 substations and 277 structure miles of lines in Arkansas. Its distribution systems included 350 substations; 29,494 structure miles of overhead lines; 3,365 miles of underground conduit; and 11,125 miles of underground conductors in Oklahoma, as well as 29 substations, 2,795 structure miles of overhead lines, 349 miles of underground conduit, and 662 miles of underground conductors in Arkansas. The company was founded in 1902 and is based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
How the Company Makes MoneyOGE Energy primarily makes money through its regulated utility operations, where it generates revenue by providing electricity to its customers. The company earns income from the sale of electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial users. Rates for these services are regulated by state and federal agencies, ensuring that pricing is fair and allows the company to recover costs and earn a reasonable return on investment. Additionally, OGE Energy may engage in infrastructure improvements and expansion projects, which can lead to increased capacity and customer base, further enhancing revenue potential. The company might also benefit from strategic partnerships and regulatory incentives aimed at promoting renewable energy and efficiency programs, contributing to its overall earnings.

OGE Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -2.69%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong financial performance with significant earnings and load growth, robust customer and economic development, and high reliability. However, some concerns were noted in the industrial sector and credit rating outlook. Overall, the positive factors outweigh the negatives.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Earnings Growth
Consolidated net income was $63 million or $0.31 per diluted share compared to $19 million or $0.09 per share in the same period last year. This represents a significant improvement in earnings performance.
Robust Load Growth
The demand for electricity grew 8% year-over-year, led by residential and commercial sectors. Residential and commercial segments grew at 3% and 28%, respectively, indicating strong underlying economic conditions.
Successful Customer and Economic Development
Customer growth is on target at 1%, with strong economic development initiatives attracting diverse industries to Oklahoma and Arkansas, contributing to long-term growth projections.
High Reliability and Low Rates
OG&E achieved an average reliability of 99.975% despite severe weather events. The company maintains some of the lowest electric rates in both Oklahoma and Arkansas.
Proactive Supply Chain Management
OG&E has secured key components like transformers, wire, and cable through 2026, ensuring minimal supply chain disruptions.
Negative Updates
Industrial and Oilfield Sector Softness
Some softness was observed in the industrial and oilfield sectors, attributed to both planned and unplanned outages in the first quarter.
Moody's Negative Outlook
Moody's placed OG&E on a negative outlook, citing the company's FFO to debt ratio target of 17%, which is below Moody's 18% downgrade threshold.
Company Guidance
During the OGE Energy Corp. 2025 First Quarter Earnings Call, the company provided guidance affirming its 2025 earnings per share target within a range of $2.21 to $2.33. OGE reported consolidated net income of $63 million, or $0.31 per diluted share, compared to $19 million or $0.09 per share in the same period in 2024. OG&E's net income was $71 million, or $0.35 per share, with a holding company loss of $0.04 per share. The company experienced an 8% year-over-year increase in demand, driven by a 1% customer growth rate and strong load growth in the residential (3%) and commercial (28%) sectors. OGE's financial plan maintains an FFO to debt ratio of approximately 17%, with a commitment to no external equity issuances beyond a modest annual dividend reinvestment plan. The company also highlighted ongoing discussions with data center projects, including Google, and plans to file for additional generation capacity in response to these developments.

OGE Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
OGE Energy demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability with well-managed costs. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage and good equity utilization. However, cash flow management poses challenges due to high capital expenditures, impacting free cash flow.
Income Statement
75
Positive
OGE Energy shows a strong performance in its income statement with a consistent increase in revenue over the years, particularly evident with a TTM revenue of $3.14 billion. The gross profit margin is robust at 46.53% for TTM, indicating efficient cost management. Net profit margin stands at 15.49%, which is strong, reflecting effective profitability strategies. The revenue growth rate from the previous year to TTM is 5.06%, suggesting steady growth. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly improved, indicating stable operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a moderate level of financial health. The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.28 for TTM indicates a balanced leverage, which is typical for the regulated electric industry. Return on equity is relatively healthy at 10.52%, showing effective utilization of equity capital. The equity ratio is at 33.08%, which shows a reasonable level of equity financing, though there is room for improvement to enhance financial stability.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The cash flow statement presents a mixed picture. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.54, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow is negative at -$367.8 million for TTM, showing challenges in covering capital expenditures. Free cash flow to net income is also negative, highlighting potential cash flow management issues. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, reflecting ongoing investment needs that may pressure cash reserves.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.14B2.99B2.67B3.38B3.65B2.12B
Gross Profit1.46B1.39B1.26B1.21B1.06B1.01B
EBITDA1.37B1.31B1.20B1.42B1.45B248.70M
Net Income485.60M441.50M416.80M665.70M737.30M-173.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets13.95B13.72B12.79B12.54B12.61B10.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments26.90M600.00K200.00K88.10M0.001.10M
Total Debt5.89B5.52B4.84B4.55B4.98B3.59B
Total Liabilities9.34B9.08B8.28B8.13B8.55B7.09B
Stockholders Equity4.62B4.64B4.51B4.41B4.06B3.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-367.80M-278.10M54.10M-207.80M-1.09B62.30M
Operating Cash Flow745.70M812.80M1.23B843.10M-313.30M712.80M
Investing Cash Flow-1.18B-1.16B-1.27B12.90M-749.10M-654.90M
Financing Cash Flow458.30M348.80M-48.10M-767.90M1.06B-56.80M

OGE Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price44.48
Price Trends
50DMA
44.36
Positive
100DMA
44.31
Positive
200DMA
42.56
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.04
Negative
RSI
52.93
Neutral
STOCH
59.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OGE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.16, above the 50-day MA of 44.36, and above the 200-day MA of 42.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OGE.

OGE Energy Risk Analysis

OGE Energy disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. OGE Energy reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

OGE Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
LNLNT
76
Outperform
$15.81B21.2310.71%3.30%2.46%5.66%
OGOGE
71
Outperform
$8.96B18.4510.72%3.79%15.56%21.90%
69
Neutral
$16.15B18.498.95%3.80%5.53%23.00%
DTDTE
68
Neutral
$27.38B17.8213.28%3.30%11.16%20.94%
PNPNW
68
Neutral
$10.80B17.969.08%3.97%10.69%12.37%
CNCNP
62
Neutral
$23.46B24.169.22%2.45%4.76%4.08%
61
Neutral
C$4.82B-11.45-12.21%4.50%11.13%-68.91%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
OGE
OGE Energy
44.48
10.41
30.55%
LNT
Alliant Energy
61.53
11.84
23.83%
CNP
Centerpoint Energy
35.94
6.43
21.79%
DTE
DTE Energy
131.94
26.50
25.13%
PNW
Pinnacle West Capital
90.42
17.06
23.26%
EVRG
Evergy
70.18
19.44
38.31%

OGE Energy Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsDividends
OGE Energy Holds Annual Shareholders Meeting, Elects Board
Neutral
May 15, 2025

At the Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on May 15, 2025, OGE Energy Corp. elected 10 board members, ratified Ernst & Young LLP as their principal independent accountants for 2025, and approved executive compensation. However, an amendment to eliminate supermajority voting provisions was not passed. Additionally, the Board of Directors declared a third quarter dividend of $0.42125 per common share, payable on July 25, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGE) stock is a Hold with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on OGE Energy stock, see the OGE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 01, 2025