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OGE Energy Corp (OGE)
NYSE:OGE
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OGE Energy
(NYSE:OGE)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$50.00
â–²(1.75% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by solid but constrained financial fundamentals (good profitability offset by rising leverage, volatile/negative free cash flow, and incomplete latest-year financial data). Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend, though overbought signals elevate near-term downside risk. Valuation is reasonable with a supportive dividend, and the earnings call added a positive boost via upgraded guidance and a clearer multi-year growth plan, tempered by execution and regulatory uncertainties tied to transmission and large capex.
Positive Factors
Stable regulated margins
OGE’s consistent mid-to-high single-digit net margins and very strong EBITDA margins reflect the protective nature of regulated utility economics. Stable allowed returns and rate recovery mechanisms underpin durable cash generation and support capex recovery over multi-year horizons.
Durable load & customer growth
Sustained weather-normalized load expansion and steady customer adds drive structural revenue and justified rate base growth. Higher load, including large data-center demand, supports multi-year investments and recurring returns through regulated tariffs, reducing reliance on spot market swings.
Financing committed for capex
Proactive equity issuance and planned utility debt demonstrate a financed-capital plan that reduces execution funding risk. Clear funding cadence and FFO/debt targets provide a durable framework to support the 5–10 year investment program without immediate reliance on ad-hoc financings.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
An increasing debt-to-equity ratio reflects heavier reliance on balance-sheet financing for capital projects. Over time this narrows financial flexibility, raises interest burden and could limit future investment capacity or necessitate more equity issuance if credit metrics weaken under large incremental capex.
Volatile/negative free cash flow
Repeated negative free cash flow in capex-heavy years indicates cash generation lags investment needs. This pattern increases reliance on external financing, elevates execution risk, and can pressure dividend sustainability or credit ratios if prolonged beyond planned financing windows.
SPP transmission & regulatory risk
Potentially large, SPP-assigned transmission obligations create structural uncertainty: final cost allocation, routing, and regulatory approvals may materially change the capital plan, deferring ratemaking recovery and producing lumpy rate impacts that could strain affordability and approval timing.
OGE Energy (OGE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.14B
Dividend Yield3.82%
Average Volume (3M)1.57M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.1
Beta (1Y)0.26
Revenue Growth18.03%
EPS Growth29.46%
CountryUS
Employees2,291
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.34
Shares Outstanding206,259,020
10 Day Avg. Volume1,473,174
30 Day Avg. Volume1,574,669
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.10
Price to Book (P/B)1.73
Price to Sales (P/S)2.64
P/FCF Ratio104.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.56
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.85
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.95
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$46.50Price Target Upside-5.37% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)2.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.29B
OGE Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOGE Energy Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and energy services provider that offers physical delivery and related services for electricity, natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electric energy. It provides retail electric service to approximately 879,000 customers, which covers a service area of approximately 30,000 square miles in Oklahoma and western Arkansas; and owns and operates coal-fired, natural gas-fired, wind-powered, and solar-powered generating assets. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated interconnected electric generation, transmission, and distribution systems, including 16 generating stations with an aggregate capability of 7,207 megawatts; and transmission systems comprising 54 substations and 5,122 structure miles of lines in Oklahoma, and 7 substations and 277 structure miles of lines in Arkansas. Its distribution systems included 350 substations; 29,494 structure miles of overhead lines; 3,365 miles of underground conduit; and 11,125 miles of underground conductors in Oklahoma, as well as 29 substations, 2,795 structure miles of overhead lines, 349 miles of underground conduit, and 662 miles of underground conductors in Arkansas. The company was founded in 1902 and is based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
How the Company Makes MoneyOGE Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company operates under regulated utility rates, which allows it to earn a return on its investments in infrastructure and energy generation. Key revenue streams include retail sales of electricity, transmission and distribution services, and natural gas sales. OGE also invests in renewable energy projects, which can provide additional revenue through federal incentives and renewable energy credits. Partnerships with government entities and participation in regional energy markets further enhance its earnings potential, while cost management and operational efficiency efforts help to maintain profitability.
OGE Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive picture: 2025 results exceeded guidance midpoints with solid EPS growth, upgraded 2026 guidance, explicit multi‑year growth targets, a robust IRP identifying significant capacity needs, and financing actions (equity issuance, planned debt) that support the capital plan through 2030. Operational strengths include strong load/customer growth, disciplined cost control (O&M per growth <1%), and recognition for safety and workplace performance. Key risks highlighted include material transmission obligations from SPP with remaining cost/timing uncertainty, the need for multiple regulatory approvals for generation and storage projects, a terminated third‑party storage PPA underscoring counterparty risk, and potential rate/affordability pressure from large incremental CapEx. Overall, the favorable financial results, clear growth plan, and secured financing outweigh the execution and regulatory uncertainties.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Earnings and Net Income Growth
Consolidated net income of ~$471 million, or $2.32 per diluted share for 2025, versus $442 million, or $2.19 per share in 2024 (EPS increase ~6%). Electric company net income rose to $500 million, or $2.47 per share, from $470 million, or $2.33 per share (~6% increase). Results finished at the upper end of original guidance and $0.05 above the midpoint.
Upgraded 2026 Guidance and Multi-Year Growth Targets
2026 consolidated EPS guidance of $2.43 (range $2.38–$2.48); midpoint represents a ~7% increase from the 2025 midpoint. Long-term EPS growth target set at 5%–7% off the higher starting point, with track record of ~6% EPS CAGR over ten years and ~7% over five years.
Robust Load and Customer Growth
Customer count growth just under 1% and weather-normalized load growth of ~7% in 2025. Guidance for 2026: customer count +1% and weather-normalized load growth of 4%–6%. Total retail weather-normalized load up >24% since 2021.
Capital and Financing Progress
Executed a well-subscribed equity offering in November to support roughly $1 billion of incremental CapEx through 2030; forward satisfies equity needs through 2030. Expect to issue ~$300 million of electric utility debt in 2026 and no long-term holding company debt. Target FFO-to-debt ~17% through 2030 and dividend payout ratio targeted at 60%–70% with dividends stable and growing.
Clear Project Pipeline for Generation and Storage
Filed for preapproval of the 300 MW Frontier Energy Storage Project and issued two RFPs (bridge capacity 2027–2032 and All-Source for accredited capacity in 2032). Draft 2026 IRP identifies ~1.9 GW of capacity needs by 2031 (incremental to the 300 MW Frontier project). Management expects to add ~1.3 GW of generation before decade end (in addition to prior ~1 GW over last ten years).
Transmission Opportunity from SPP and Proactive IRP Process
SPP ITP-2025 allocated OG&E a significant portion of the Seminole–Shreveport 765 kV line and additional transmission/substation projects. Management anticipates refining estimates/schedules, accepting NTCs in H2, and layering projects into the investment plan, viewing transmission as a compelling long-duration investment opportunity.
Operational and Cost Discipline
Company emphasizes affordability and low operating costs: O&M per growth over the last decade is <1%. Recognitions include Oklahoma Top Workplace and top-ranked safety performance by Southeast Electric Exchange. Recent investments include new combustion turbines at Tinker AFB.
Large-Load Customer Momentum
Disclosed a near-finalized ~1 GW agreement with a data center customer (Customer X) incorporated in the IRP; management plans to file the large load tariff and related filings by midyear and expects to finalize related agreements and protections (collateral, minimum terms) to protect existing customers.
Negative Updates
Holding Company Loss and Rising Interest Expense
Holding company reported a loss of ~$29 million, or $0.15 per share, slightly higher year-over-year primarily due to increased interest expense (partially offset by a one-time legacy midstream benefit).
Transmission Cost and Timing Uncertainty
SPP designation of the Seminole–Shreveport 765 kV line creates material uncertainty: SPP estimated ~$2.4 billion for that line and OG&E preliminarily indicated the allocation could be on the order of ~20% of the current capital plan. Routing, final cost allocation, timing, and financing remain uncertain until refined estimates and NTCs are received (expected H2).
Project and Regulatory Approval Risks
Several growth initiatives (Frontier Energy Storage preapprovals, RFP results, generation preapproval filings, and transmission NTC acceptance) require regulatory approvals. Timing and approvals will drive capital/financing updates and could create lumpy rate/recovery dynamics.
Termination of Storage PPA Highlights Counterparty Risk
Reference to the terminated Black Kettle energy storage capacity PPA (event default) underscores execution and counterparty risks in third-party supply arrangements and supports management's preference for utility ownership, but highlights risks in relying on third-party contracts.
Moderation and Variability of Near-Term Load Growth
2026 weather-normalized load guidance of 4%–6% moderates versus ~7% in 2025. Management notes variability in large loads (ebb and flow), and key large customers (other than Customer X) remain in various pipeline stages without inclusion in the IRP—creating potential volatility in future capacity needs and timing.
Potential Rate / Affordability Pressure from Large CapEx
Significant incremental capital needs (generation, storage, and assigned transmission) could pressure rates if recovery timing is uneven. Management emphasizes balancing affordability, but the investment scale (including potential SPP-assigned projects) poses risk to the affordability narrative if not carefully phased and financed.
Company Guidance
OGE guided 2026 consolidated EPS of $2.43 (range $2.38–$2.48), with the midpoint ~7% above 2025’s midpoint and a new long‑term EPS growth target of 5%–7% off that higher base (with management expecting to deliver in the top half of the range in 2027–28); for context, 2025 consolidated EPS was $2.32 (net income ~$471M), electric company net income $500M ($2.47/share) and holding company loss $29M ($0.15/share). Near‑term operating and financial drivers include customer growth ~1% and weather‑normalized load guidance of 4%–6% for 2026 (after ~7% weather‑normalized load growth in 2025 and retail load up >24% since 2021), an IRP‑identified ~1.9 GW capacity need by 2031 (≈800 MW driven by SPP policy changes) plus the 300 MW Frontier storage preapproval, two RFPs with bid selection expected in Q3 and preapproval filings by year‑end, planned issuance of ~ $300M utility debt this year (no long‑term holding company debt), equity raised last November to fund roughly $1B of incremental CapEx through 2030, an indicated rate base growth of ~9% under the current plan, FFO/debt near 17% through 2030, a target dividend payout ratio of 60%–70%, and preliminary SPP ITP assignment (Seminole–Shreveport 765 kV and related projects) that could represent on the order of 20% of the current capital plan as estimates are refined.OGE Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability is solid for a regulated utility (healthy net and EBITDA margins), but leverage is rising and free cash flow has been frequently negative/volatile due to heavy investment needs. Missing/zero 2025 line items in the provided financial dataset reduce confidence in the latest-year trend.Income Statement
Profitability is generally solid for a regulated utility, with healthy margins in 2022–2024 (net margin ~15–20% and EBITDA margin ~42–45%). Revenue growth has been inconsistent (declines in 2022 and 2023 followed by a rebound in 2024), and earnings have trended lower versus the 2021–2022 peak. 2025 shows missing/zero revenue and profit line items in the dataset, which reduces confidence in the latest-year trend.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage is meaningful and rising, with debt-to-equity moving from ~1.03 (2022) to ~1.19 (2024), consistent with capital-intensive utility operations but still a constraint. Equity has grown gradually, supporting the balance sheet, while returns on equity have moderated from stronger 2021–2022 levels to ~9–10% in 2023–2024. 2025 total assets are not provided (shown as zero), limiting visibility into the most recent balance-sheet scale.58
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is volatile: operating cash flow was negative in 2021, improved strongly in 2022–2024, but free cash flow has been frequently negative (notably 2021, 2022, and 2024), suggesting heavy capital spending and/or working-capital swings. Free cash flow relative to earnings is weak in down years and inconsistent overall. 2025 cash flow line items are missing/zero, adding uncertainty around the latest run-rate.45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.26B | 2.99B | 2.67B | 3.38B | 3.65B |
| Gross Profit | 1.44B | 1.39B | 1.26B | 1.21B | 1.06B |
| EBITDA | 1.36B | 1.31B | 1.20B | 1.42B | 1.46B |
| Net Income | 470.70M | 441.50M | 416.80M | 665.70M | 737.30M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 14.37B | 13.72B | 12.79B | 12.54B | 12.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 200.00K | 600.00K | 200.00K | 88.10M | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 5.66B | 5.52B | 4.84B | 4.55B | 4.98B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.39B | 9.08B | 8.28B | 8.13B | 8.55B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.98B | 4.64B | 4.51B | 4.41B | 4.06B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 82.70M | -278.10M | 54.10M | -98.50M | -1.01B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.14B | 812.80M | 1.23B | 952.40M | -229.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.13B | -1.16B | -1.27B | -96.40M | -832.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -10.90M | 348.80M | -48.10M | -767.90M | 1.06B |
OGE Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
49.14
Price Trends
44.11
Positive
44.29
Positive
43.93
Positive
Market Momentum
1.38
Negative
82.63
Negative
94.86
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OGE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 49.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.97, above the 50-day MA of 44.11, and above the 200-day MA of 43.93, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 82.63 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.86 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OGE.
OGE Energy Risk Analysis
OGE Energy disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. OGE Energy reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
OGE Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $6.82B | 19.53 | 7.72% | 4.38% | 7.53% | -17.59% | |
67 Neutral | $19.27B | 22.84 | 8.48% | 3.72% | 0.11% | -0.52% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $18.60B | 23.02 | 11.30% | 3.11% | 7.76% | 23.48% | |
65 Neutral | $12.13B | 19.84 | 8.93% | 4.15% | 5.70% | -8.25% | |
64 Neutral | $10.14B | 21.14 | 9.79% | 3.82% | 18.03% | 29.46% | |
62 Neutral | $7.90B | 24.39 | 9.37% | 2.72% | -1.58% | 8.49% |
* Utilities Sector Average
OGE
OGE Energy
49.14
4.57
10.25%
LNT
Alliant Energy
72.34
8.36
13.07%
IDA
IdaCorp
143.97
28.17
24.32%
PNW
Pinnacle West Capital
100.30
9.77
10.80%
POR
Portland GE
53.96
10.82
25.08%
EVRG
Evergy
83.66
16.79
25.11%
OGE Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
OGE Energy Announces Leadership Transition Plans
Neutral
Dec 8, 2025
On December 3, 2025, OGE Energy announced that Donnie O. Jones, Vice President of Utility Operations at Oklahoma Gas and Electric Company, plans to retire at the end of 2026. This retirement marks a significant transition in the company’s leadership, potentially impacting its operational strategies and stakeholder relations.
The most recent analyst rating on (OGE) stock is a Buy with a $51.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on OGE Energy stock, see the OGE Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
OGE Energy Announces Public Offering to Fund Capital Plan
Neutral
Nov 24, 2025
On November 20, 2025, OGE Energy Corp. announced the pricing of its public offering of 8,023,256 shares of common stock, with an additional 1,203,488 shares purchased by underwriters the following day. The proceeds from this offering are intended to finance the company’s updated $7.285 billion five-year capital plan through 2030. The company also entered into forward sale agreements to manage the issuance of shares, which could impact earnings per share depending on market conditions and settlement choices. This strategic financial maneuver aims to support OGE Energy’s growth and operational goals, although it may lead to dilution of earnings per share if certain settlement options are chosen.
The most recent analyst rating on (OGE) stock is a Hold with a $47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on OGE Energy stock, see the OGE Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.