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Waste Management
(NYSE:WM)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$235.00
▲(4.93% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/14/26
WM’s score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (steady growth, resilient margins, and improving cash generation) and a constructive earnings outlook with reiterated guidance and strong free-cash-flow performance. Offsetting these strengths are weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a premium valuation (P/E ~32) that reduces near-term risk/reward despite the dividend.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, growing operating cash flow and rising free cash flow provide durable funding for capex, dividend payments, share buybacks and sustainability projects. This cash conversion supports reinvestment and debt servicing capacity, improving resilience through economic cycles and funding strategic growth.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Material leverage constrains financial flexibility, limiting capacity for large tuck-in M&A and increasing sensitivity to higher interest rates or cash-flow interruptions. While manageable today, sustained leverage near the target range reduces margin for error during cyclical slowdowns or capital-intensive sustainability rollouts.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, growing operating cash flow and rising free cash flow provide durable funding for capex, dividend payments, share buybacks and sustainability projects. This cash conversion supports reinvestment and debt servicing capacity, improving resilience through economic cycles and funding strategic growth.
Read all positive factors
Waste Management Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, providing a clear picture of the company's diverse operations and which areas are driving growth or facing challenges.
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, providing a clear picture of the company's diverse operations and which areas are driving growth or facing challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyWaste Management (WM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$93.94B
Dividend Yield1.5%
Average Volume (3M)2.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.4
Beta (1Y)0.02
Revenue Growth10.87%
EPS Growth4.11%
CountryUS
Employees61,700
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.93
Shares Outstanding401,575,740
10 Day Avg. Volume2,354,085
30 Day Avg. Volume2,326,047
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-18.64
Price to Book (P/B)8.86
Price to Sales (P/S)3.51
P/FCF Ratio31.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.43
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.77
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$259.15Price Target Upside15.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)8.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$26.52B
Waste Management Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Waste Management, Inc. (WM) functions as a premier provider of environmental waste solutions across North America, serving a diverse client base that includes residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers. The company's core operati...
How the Company Makes Money
WM primarily makes money by charging customers recurring service fees for collecting, transporting, processing, and disposing of waste and recyclables. A major revenue stream comes from collection contracts and subscriptions (e.g., residential rou...
Waste Management Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong financial and operational execution: mid-single-digit operating EBITDA growth, robust cash generation (free cash flow nearly doubled to $920M), effective pricing and margin expansion in collection & disposal, meaningful sustainability and renewable natural gas progress, and notable improvement in health care solutions' profitability and receivables. Offsetting headwinds included softer volumes driven by extreme winter weather and the absence of prior-year wildfire volumes, commodity price pressure in recycling, elevated corporate/technology and compensation costs, and some timing/interconnect risks for RNG projects. On balance, the company presented multiple durable operational improvements and strong cash returns to shareholders while acknowledging manageable near-term volume and timing challenges.Positive Updates
Overall Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA grew nearly 6% year-over-year in Q1 2026, driven by strong performance across collection & disposal, sustainability, and health care solutions.
Negative Updates
Volume Softness and Weather Headwinds
Overall volumes were softer in Q1 (roughly a 1.5% decline year-over-year), with about half of the shortfall attributed to severe winter weather (east coast storms and facility shutdowns); management flagged Q2 comps will be challenging due to prior-year wildfire volumes (~$85 million revenue impact in Q2 2025).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Overall Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA grew nearly 6% year-over-year in Q1 2026, driven by strong performance across collection & disposal, sustainability, and health care solutions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated it is on track to achieve full‑year financial guidance, pointing to Q1 results that underpin that view: operating EBITDA was up nearly 6% (collection & disposal EBITDA +6.4% with a +110 bps margin expansion), Q1 free cash flow nearly doubled to $920M (operating cash flow $1.5B, capex $650M including $61M of sustainability spend), and the company returned about $730M to shareholders in Q1 ($385M dividends, $344M buybacks) while resuming a $2.0B buyback program for 2026 (weighted ~55–60% to 2H). Key forward metrics include an expected full‑year effective tax rate of ~23% (benefitting from production tax credits of $27M for 2025 and $30–35M annually 2026–2029), a target leverage range of 2.5–3.0x (Q1 2.94x), sustainability EBITDA contribution of ~$240–250M (renewable energy EBITDA more than doubled; recycling EBITDA +18% on +9% volume despite a -27% commodity price move), health care EBITDA growth of ~12% with a $300M synergy run‑rate by 2027 (potentially up to $325M), ~80% of RNG volume forward‑sold for 2026, and commodity/recycling guidance near $70/ton and an RNG investment thesis of ~$26/MMBtu; management cautioned Q2 comps will be tough due to prior‑year wildfire volumes but expects margin uplift in 2H similar to 2025.Waste Management Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 25.41B | 25.20B | 22.06B | 20.43B | 19.70B | 17.93B |
| Gross Profit | 8.15B | 7.33B | 6.41B | 5.75B | 5.37B | 4.82B |
| EBITDA | 7.41B | 7.20B | 6.46B | 5.72B | 5.45B | 4.82B |
| Net Income | 2.79B | 2.71B | 2.75B | 2.30B | 2.24B | 1.82B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 45.70B | 45.84B | 44.57B | 32.82B | 31.37B | 29.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 158.00M | 201.00M | 414.00M | 458.00M | 351.00M | 118.00M |
| Total Debt | 22.89B | 22.91B | 23.90B | 16.23B | 14.98B | 13.40B |
| Total Liabilities | 35.68B | 35.84B | 36.31B | 25.93B | 24.50B | 21.97B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.02B | 9.99B | 8.25B | 6.90B | 6.85B | 7.12B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.29B | 2.82B | 2.16B | 1.82B | 1.95B | 2.43B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.34B | 6.04B | 5.39B | 4.72B | 4.54B | 4.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.47B | -3.57B | -10.60B | -3.09B | -3.06B | -1.89B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.96B | -2.67B | 5.16B | -1.52B | -1.22B | -2.90B |
Waste Management Technical Analysis
Positive
223.95
Price Trends
220.63
Positive
225.91
Positive
220.24
Positive
Market Momentum
3.68
Negative
60.42
Neutral
78.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 223.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 223.25, above the 50-day MA of 220.63, and above the 200-day MA of 220.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.68 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for WM.
Waste Management Risk Analysis
Waste Management disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Waste Management reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Waste Management Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $67.83B | 31.33 | 18.12% | 1.11% | 3.19% | 5.11% | |
69 Neutral | $15.90B | 40.69 | 14.37% | ― | 1.90% | 2.13% | |
67 Neutral | $93.94B | 33.43 | 28.85% | 1.50% | 10.87% | 4.11% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $6.29B | 827.15 | 0.46% | ― | 14.92% | -48.77% | |
50 Neutral | $641.05M | -32.74 | 2.99% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
WM
Waste Management
231.67
9.58
4.31%
CWST
Casella Waste
95.37
-15.73
-14.16%
CLH
Clean Harbors
301.91
70.66
30.56%
NVRI
Enviri Corporation
22.92
6.75
41.74%
RSG
Republic Services
218.69
-18.66
-7.86%
Waste Management Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Waste Management Shareholders Back Board, Pay and ESPP Plan
Positive
May 14, 2026
At Waste Management, Inc.’s annual stockholders meeting held on May 12, 2026, shareholders representing a strong majority of outstanding shares elected nine director nominees to the board, signaling continued support for the company’s ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Waste Management Promotes Tara Hemmer to Chief Operating Officer
Positive
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, WM announced that its board promoted longtime executive Tara Hemmer to executive vice president and chief operating officer, succeeding John Morris in the COO role while she continues to oversee recycling, renewable energy and oth...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Waste Management Amends Revolving Credit Agreement Covenants
Positive
Mar 25, 2026
On March 20, 2026, Waste Management, Inc. amended its Seventh Amended and Restated Revolving Credit Agreement, originally dated May 8, 2024, with its Canadian borrowers and Bank of America, N.A. as administrative agent. The change revises the defi...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Waste Management Awards Bonus Amid CFO Transition Support
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
Waste Management, Inc. detailed the departure of Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Devina Rankin, who voluntarily resigned from her CFO role effective November 1, 2025, after a 23‑year tenure that included nearly nine year...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Waste Management Updates Executive Performance-Based Compensation Programs
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Waste Management’s compensation committee granted its senior executives a new package of performance share units and stock options under the 2023 Stock Incentive Plan, tying half of the equity awards to cash flow generation...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.