Waste Management (WM)
NYSE:WM
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Waste Management
(NYSE:WM)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$245.00
▲(6.78% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial performance and a constructive earnings outlook featuring margin expansion, higher free cash flow, and shareholder returns. These positives are tempered by weak near-term technical momentum and a premium valuation, with leverage and integration/commodity-related risks remaining key watch items.
Positive Factors
Scale and recurring revenue
WM’s large, integrated collection and disposal footprint with municipal franchises and long-term commercial contracts produces stable, recurring cash flows. Scale and route density raise barriers to entry, supporting steady revenue and pricing power over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Material leverage limits financial flexibility, raising interest expense and sensitivity to higher rates. It constrains opportunistic M&A or cyclical cushioning, and necessitates continued strong FCF conversion to meet buybacks/dividends while reducing leverage toward targets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale and recurring revenue
WM’s large, integrated collection and disposal footprint with municipal franchises and long-term commercial contracts produces stable, recurring cash flows. Scale and route density raise barriers to entry, supporting steady revenue and pricing power over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Waste Management (WM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$92.55B
Dividend Yield1.5%
Average Volume (3M)1.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.7
Beta (1Y)0.12
Revenue Growth15.88%
EPS Growth-3.11%
CountryUS
Employees61,700
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.93
Shares Outstanding403,335,800
10 Day Avg. Volume1,457,770
30 Day Avg. Volume1,990,157
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-18.62
Price to Book (P/B)8.86
Price to Sales (P/S)3.51
P/FCF Ratio31.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit15.81
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.93
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$255.56Price Target Upside11.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)8.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$26.49B
Waste Management Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides waste management environmental services to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in North America. It offers collection services, including picking up and transporti...
How the Company Makes Money
WM primarily makes money by charging customers recurring service fees for collecting, transporting, processing, and disposing of waste and recyclables. A major revenue stream comes from collection contracts and subscriptions (e.g., residential rou...
Waste Management Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, providing a clear picture of the company's diverse operations and which areas are driving growth or facing challenges.
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, providing a clear picture of the company's diverse operations and which areas are driving growth or facing challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyWaste Management Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple clear operational wins — record cost and margin performance, strong cash flow and free cash flow growth, tangible fleet and labor improvements, and meaningful progress scaling sustainability and recycling initiatives. Management acknowledged integration-related challenges in Healthcare Solutions (lost accounts, credit memos and elevated SG&A) and external headwinds (lower commodity prices and wildfire comparability). However, the breadth and magnitude of positive operational and financial metrics, combined with strong cash generation and a shareholder-friendly capital allocation plan, outweigh the identifiable near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Record Margin and Cost Performance
Full-year operating EBITDA margin reached 30.1% (up 40 bps year-over-year). Legacy Business normalized margin expanded ~180 bps for the year, and collection & disposal operating EBITDA margin expanded 160 bps in Q4. Operating expenses as a percent of revenue improved to 58.5% in Q4 (improving 180 bps) and finished the year at 59.5% — the first full year below 60% in company history.
Negative Updates
Healthcare Solutions Integration and Revenue Dilution
Healthcare Solutions experienced integration headwinds (lost accounts and credit memos) that diluted revenue. Management expects Healthcare Solutions revenue growth of 3.0% in 2026 with price at 4.2%, reflecting near-term volume pressure from accounts that will anniversary in the back half of the year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Margin and Cost Performance
Full-year operating EBITDA margin reached 30.1% (up 40 bps year-over-year). Legacy Business normalized margin expanded ~180 bps for the year, and collection & disposal operating EBITDA margin expanded 160 bps in Q4. Operating expenses as a percent of revenue improved to 58.5% in Q4 (improving 180 bps) and finished the year at 59.5% — the first full year below 60% in company history.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
WM guided 2026 operating EBITDA of $8.15–$8.25 billion (excludes ~ $150M of projected accretion expense), implying ~6.2% growth at the midpoint (7.4% normalizing for 2025 wildfire cleanup), and called for ~30 bps of EBITDA margin expansion at the midpoint (≈50 bps on an adjusted basis ex-wildfires). Free cash flow is expected to grow nearly 30% to about $3.8 billion (driving EBITDA→FCF conversion above 46%), with capex of $2.65–$2.75 billion (≈$200M for sustainability projects and roughly $85M for two RNG facilities plus one recycling project); sustainability growth EBITDA contribution is projected at $235–$255M. The outlook assumes an effective tax rate of ~24%, year-end diluted share count ≈402 million, an investment tax credit benefit of ≈$110M (a ~$75M headwind vs. prior year), and a target leverage range of 2.5–3.0x (currently 3.1x) as the company plans roughly $3.5 billion of shareholder returns in 2026 (including a new $3.0B repurchase authorization and a 14.5% planned quarterly dividend rate increase).Waste Management Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 25.20B | 22.06B | 20.43B | 19.70B | 17.93B |
| Gross Profit | 7.33B | 6.41B | 5.75B | 5.37B | 4.82B |
| EBITDA | 7.20B | 6.46B | 5.72B | 5.45B | 4.82B |
| Net Income | 2.71B | 2.75B | 2.30B | 2.24B | 1.82B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 45.84B | 44.57B | 32.82B | 31.37B | 29.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 201.00M | 414.00M | 458.00M | 351.00M | 118.00M |
| Total Debt | 22.91B | 23.90B | 16.23B | 14.98B | 13.40B |
| Total Liabilities | 35.84B | 36.31B | 25.93B | 24.50B | 21.97B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.99B | 8.25B | 6.90B | 6.85B | 7.12B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.82B | 2.16B | 1.82B | 1.95B | 2.43B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.04B | 5.39B | 4.72B | 4.54B | 4.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.57B | -10.60B | -3.09B | -3.06B | -1.89B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.67B | 5.16B | -1.52B | -1.22B | -2.90B |
Waste Management Technical Analysis
Negative
229.45
Price Trends
232.21
Negative
224.71
Positive
221.55
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.41
Negative
45.45
Neutral
58.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 229.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 231.33, below the 50-day MA of 232.21, and above the 200-day MA of 221.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for WM.
Waste Management Risk Analysis
Waste Management disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Waste Management reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Waste Management Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $15.99B | 31.90 | 14.47% | ― | 2.85% | -6.27% | |
74 Outperform | $781.86M | -1,034.44 | -0.17% | ― | 22.77% | 44.73% | |
72 Outperform | $66.29B | 30.90 | 18.00% | 1.11% | 4.33% | 7.59% | |
68 Neutral | $92.55B | 32.67 | 28.99% | 1.50% | 15.88% | -3.11% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | $5.52B | 789.67 | 0.50% | ― | 20.54% | 106.35% | |
45 Neutral | $1.62B | -8.63 | -48.78% | ― | -2.91% | -67.18% |
* Industrials Sector Average
WM
Waste Management
229.45
0.62
0.27%
CWST
Casella Waste
86.98
-30.25
-25.80%
CLH
Clean Harbors
302.23
99.81
49.31%
NVRI
Enviri
19.56
13.85
242.56%
RSG
Republic Services
214.66
-28.23
-11.62%
MEG
Montrose Environmental Group
21.73
7.58
53.57%
Waste Management Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Waste Management Amends Revolving Credit Agreement Covenants
Positive
Mar 25, 2026
On March 20, 2026, Waste Management, Inc. amended its Seventh Amended and Restated Revolving Credit Agreement, originally dated May 8, 2024, with its Canadian borrowers and Bank of America, N.A. as administrative agent. The change revises the defi...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Waste Management Awards Bonus Amid CFO Transition Support
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
Waste Management, Inc. detailed the departure of Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Devina Rankin, who voluntarily resigned from her CFO role effective November 1, 2025, after a 23‑year tenure that included nearly nine year...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Waste Management Updates Executive Performance-Based Compensation Programs
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Waste Management’s compensation committee granted its senior executives a new package of performance share units and stock options under the 2023 Stock Incentive Plan, tying half of the equity awards to cash flow generation...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.