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Waste Management (WM)
NYSE:WM

Waste Management (WM) AI Stock Analysis

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WM

Waste Management

(NYSE:WM)

79Outperform
Waste Management's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment drive a favorable score. The company's robust cash flow and operational efficiencies are significant strengths. However, high leverage and a relatively high P/E ratio present challenges. Technical indicators suggest a moderate bullish trend, though valuation concerns could limit further stock price appreciation.
Positive Factors
Business Improvement
There is faith in WM's ability to dramatically improve the business with significant upside potential to the $250MM synergy target.
Guidance Achievability
The company is well positioned to achieve the midpoint if not the high-end of their 2025 EBITDA guidance driven from favorable price/cost spread, volume improvement, SRCL value capture, and sustainability investments.
M&A Prospects
Increased optimism for near-term M&A activity with a well-developed acquisition pipeline.
Negative Factors
Commodity Challenges
The SID division was challenged by reduced commodity values and less event-driven work.
Revenue Performance
Revenues were light and free cash flow was significantly below expectations.
Startup Costs
Startup costs on new RNG projects were a drag on margins.

Waste Management (WM) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Waste Management Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionWaste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides waste management environmental services to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in North America. It offers collection services, including picking up and transporting waste and recyclable materials from where it was generated to a transfer station, material recovery facility (MRF), or disposal site; and owns, develops, and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities in the United States, as well as owns and operates transfer stations. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned or operated 255 solid waste landfills; 5 secure hazardous waste landfills; 96 MRFs; and 340 transfer stations. It also provides materials processing and commodities recycling services; recycling brokerage services, such as managing the marketing of recyclable materials for third parties; and other strategic business solutions. In addition, the company offers construction and remediation services; services related with the disposal of fly ash, and residue generated from the combustion of coal and other fuel stocks; in-plant services comprising full-service waste management solutions and consulting services; and specialized disposal services for oil and gas exploration and production operations. The company was formerly known as USA Waste Services, Inc. and changed its name to Waste Management, Inc. in 1998. Waste Management, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyWaste Management, Inc. generates revenue primarily through its various waste management services. The company's key revenue streams include collection services, where it charges fees for picking up waste from residential, commercial, and industrial clients. Additionally, WM earns from its landfill operations by charging tipping fees for waste disposal at its sites. Recycling services provide another revenue stream, where WM processes recyclable materials and sells them to manufacturers. The company also invests in renewable energy projects, such as landfill gas-to-energy initiatives, which contribute to its earnings. Strategic partnerships with municipalities and businesses, along with long-term contracts, play a significant role in ensuring stable revenue streams for Waste Management.

Waste Management Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Collection Revenue by Type
Collection Revenue by Type
Analyzes revenue generated from different waste collection services, highlighting which segments are driving growth and how shifts in demand or pricing strategies impact overall financial performance.
Chart InsightsWaste Management's Collection revenue shows robust growth across all segments, with Commercial and Residential leading the charge. The recent earnings call highlights strategic acquisitions and sustainability investments as key drivers of this growth. Despite challenges in industrial volume and commodity price pressures, the company remains optimistic about 2025, projecting significant EBITDA growth and enhanced cash flow. The acquisition of Stericycle is expected to further bolster revenue through synergies. Investors should note the potential headwind from expiring tax credits, which may impact future profitability.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Waste Management Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Waste Management demonstrates consistent revenue and profit growth, supported by strong operational performance and efficient cost management. While the balance sheet shows a robust equity position, high leverage poses potential risks. Strong cash flow generation enhances the company's financial flexibility.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Waste Management has showcased strong revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase from $15.22 billion in 2020 to $22.06 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin remains healthy, with the latest figures indicating efficiency in cost management. Net profit margin has improved considerably, reflecting enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins also show robust operational performance, indicating a well-managed cost structure and efficient operations.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's balance sheet reflects a solid equity base with stockholders' equity increasing over time. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is high, indicating potential leverage risks. Return on equity has been strong, illustrating efficient use of shareholder funds. The company's equity ratio has improved, suggesting a stronger financial position, although the absence of total asset figures for 2024 limits the full analysis.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Operating cash flow has steadily increased, supporting the company's liquidity and operational efficiency. Free cash flow growth has been consistent, indicating positive cash generation beyond capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio highlights robust cash earnings quality, while the free cash flow to net income ratio emphasizes strong conversion of profits into cash.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
22.06B20.43B19.70B17.93B15.22B
Gross Profit
8.68B7.82B7.40B6.82B5.88B
EBIT
4.06B3.58B3.37B2.96B2.43B
EBITDA
6.42B5.59B5.47B4.96B4.15B
Net Income Common Stockholders
2.75B2.30B2.24B1.82B1.50B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
414.00M458.00M351.00M118.00M553.00M
Total Assets
44.57B32.82B31.37B29.10B29.34B
Total Debt
23.90B16.23B14.98B13.40B13.81B
Net Debt
23.49B15.77B14.63B13.29B13.26B
Total Liabilities
36.31B25.93B24.50B21.97B21.89B
Stockholders Equity
8.25B6.90B6.85B7.12B7.45B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
2.16B1.82B1.95B2.43B1.77B
Operating Cash Flow
5.39B4.72B4.54B4.34B3.40B
Investing Cash Flow
-10.60B-3.09B-3.06B-1.89B-4.85B
Financing Cash Flow
5.16B-1.52B-1.22B-2.90B-1.56B

Waste Management Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price233.94
Price Trends
50DMA
228.32
Positive
100DMA
220.66
Positive
200DMA
215.47
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.32
Negative
RSI
58.99
Neutral
STOCH
91.39
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 233.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 228.36, above the 50-day MA of 228.32, and above the 200-day MA of 215.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for WM.

Waste Management Risk Analysis

Waste Management disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Waste Management reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Waste Management Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
WMWM
79
Outperform
$93.92B35.2034.01%1.32%10.77%8.38%
CLCLH
78
Outperform
$11.90B30.7716.02%8.52%4.51%
RSRSG
76
Outperform
$78.29B37.7718.54%0.91%6.13%16.44%
75
Outperform
$7.41B520.741.05%23.15%-50.55%
64
Neutral
$4.28B11.805.30%250.74%4.12%-9.02%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
WM
Waste Management
233.94
29.03
14.17%
CWST
Casella Waste
116.75
25.13
27.43%
CLH
Clean Harbors
222.11
14.76
7.12%
RSG
Republic Services
250.52
67.03
36.53%

Waste Management Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 2.12%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected strong operational performance, with significant EBITDA growth and successful integration of sustainability initiatives. However, challenges such as weather impacts and integration hurdles in the healthcare segment were noted. Overall, the positive aspects, particularly in growth and strategic investments, outweigh the negatives.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Operating EBITDA Growth
Total company operating EBITDA grew by more than 12% year-over-year, driven by strong operational performance and contributions from WM Healthcare Solutions.
Sustainability Business Success
Combined operating EBITDA from recycling and renewable energy grew by over 20% year-over-year, with significant contributions from automated recycling facilities.
Improved Residential Line of Business
Operating EBITDA margin for the residential line of business grew by more than 130 basis points, reaching 20% for the first time in six years.
Successful Cost Management
Operating expenses as a percentage of revenue improved to 60.5%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter below 61%.
Increased Acquisition Pipeline
WM expects to close more than $500 million in solid waste acquisitions in 2025, up from the typical $100 million to $200 million range.
Negative Updates
Impact of Winter Weather
The first quarter was affected by tough winter weather in the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions, impacting volume and revenue.
Expiration of Alternative Fuel Tax Credits
A 30 basis point headwind from the expiration of alternative fuel tax credits impacted margins.
Challenges in Healthcare Solutions Integration
While there was progress in integrating WM Healthcare Solutions, challenges remain, particularly with ERP system optimization.
Temporary Softness in Industrial Volumes
The industrial business experienced softness, which was partly weather-related and impacted volumes negatively.
Company Guidance
In the WM First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported strong financial performance, with total company operating EBITDA growing over 12% compared to the same period in 2024. This growth was driven by solid performance in the collection and disposal business, significant contributions from WM Healthcare Solutions, and increases in sustainability businesses. The company also highlighted a 20% year-over-year increase in combined operating EBITDA from recycling and renewable energy. In the collection and disposal business, operating EBITDA rose nearly 5%, and margins expanded by 10 basis points. WM's legacy business achieved a 30% margin for the fourth consecutive quarter, supported by a 50 basis point contribution from favorable price-cost spread and a 20 basis point contribution from recycling automation projects. The company remains confident in meeting its full-year financial guidance, including an operating EBITDA target between $7.45 billion and $7.65 billion, and a free cash flow outlook of $2.675 billion to $2.775 billion.

Waste Management Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Waste Management Grants Executive Incentive Awards for 2025
Neutral
Feb 28, 2025

On February 25, 2025, Waste Management, Inc. granted annual incentive awards to its executive officers, including performance share units (PSUs) and stock options under the 2023 Stock Incentive Plan. The PSUs are linked to cash flow generation and total shareholder return relative to the S&P 500, with payouts ranging from 0 to 200% of the target amount. Stock options have a 10-year term and vest over three years. Additionally, annual cash incentive awards were granted, based on performance measures like operating EBITDA and internal revenue growth, with potential adjustments for sustainability scores and individual performance. These incentives aim to align executive compensation with company performance and shareholder value, impacting the company’s operational focus and stakeholder interests.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.