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Waste Management
(NYSE:WM)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$268.00
▲(12.25% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
WM scores well on fundamentals, led by strong and rising operating/free cash flow and a supportive earnings update featuring margin-guidance uplift and solid execution. The technical setup is positive with price above major moving averages. The score is held back primarily by a premium P/E and flagged margin/leverage data concerns (TTM margin compression and leverage metric inconsistency) plus near-term volume and RNG timing headwinds discussed on the call.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
WM shows durable cash generation with operating cash flow rising to ~$6.5B TTM and free cash flow near ~$3.6B TTM (H1 FCF +56%). This persistent cash conversion funds dividends, buybacks, tuck‑ins and capex, supports debt paydown and enables multi‑year reinvestment without relying on external financing.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage & reporting inconsistency
Annual balance sheets show material leverage (~1.9x–2.9x 2021–2025) that constrains flexibility in a downturn and increases interest‑rate sensitivity. A conflicting TTM leverage reading (~0.11x) requires reconciliation before concluding leverage has structurally improved, leaving balance‑sheet risk unresolved.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow generation
WM shows durable cash generation with operating cash flow rising to ~$6.5B TTM and free cash flow near ~$3.6B TTM (H1 FCF +56%). This persistent cash conversion funds dividends, buybacks, tuck‑ins and capex, supports debt paydown and enables multi‑year reinvestment without relying on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Waste Management Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, providing a clear picture of the company's diverse operations and which areas are driving growth or facing challenges.
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, providing a clear picture of the company's diverse operations and which areas are driving growth or facing challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyWaste Management (WM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$90.56B
Dividend Yield1.56%
Average Volume (3M)2.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.0
Beta (1Y)>-0.01
Revenue Growth7.17%
EPS Growth4.68%
CountryUS
Employees60,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.09
Shares Outstanding399,715,180
10 Day Avg. Volume1,604,116
30 Day Avg. Volume2,058,475
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-18.64
Price to Book (P/B)8.86
Price to Sales (P/S)3.51
P/FCF Ratio31.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$258.60Price Target Upside8.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)8.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$26.40B
Waste Management Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Waste Management, Inc. (WM) functions as a premier provider of environmental waste solutions across North America, serving a diverse client base that includes residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers. The company's core operati...
How the Company Makes Money
WM primarily makes money by charging fees for waste-related services across the waste value chain, with a business model that benefits from controlling key infrastructure (collection fleets, transfer stations, recycling facilities, and especially ...
Waste Management Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong execution across margins, cash generation and cost discipline, including notable free cash flow growth (+56% YTD), operating EBITDA expansion (5.5% / 9.1% excl. wildfire), recycling and Healthcare Solutions momentum, and continued technology-driven productivity gains. The primary near-term negatives were softer-than-expected volumes (commercial and residential), timing delays in RNG pipeline interconnects and some recycling operating disruptions, which together led to a modest revenue guide narrowing. Overall, management communicated confidence in maintaining EBITDA and free cash flow targets and returning leverage to target ranges, suggesting the positives (earnings quality, margins, cash flow, integration successes) meaningfully outweigh the temporary volume and timing headwinds.Positive Updates
Operating EBITDA Growth and Margin Expansion
Operating EBITDA grew 5.5% year-over-year in the quarter (9.1% excluding prior-year wildfire cleanup contributions) and operating EBITDA margin expanded by 40 basis points in Q2 to 30.9%, driven by price-to-cost spread, technology and automation gains.
Negative Updates
Revenue Guide Narrowing and Volume Headwinds
Full-year revenue outlook was narrowed by ~0.5% to a range of $26.275 billion–$26.475 billion, primarily reflecting softer-than-expected solid-waste volumes. Collection & Disposal volumes are expected to be relatively flat in H2, with full-year Collection & Disposal volume decline approaching ~1% (approximately -0.8% to -1.0% excluding 2025 wildfire cleanup impacts).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Operating EBITDA Growth and Margin Expansion
Operating EBITDA grew 5.5% year-over-year in the quarter (9.1% excluding prior-year wildfire cleanup contributions) and operating EBITDA margin expanded by 40 basis points in Q2 to 30.9%, driven by price-to-cost spread, technology and automation gains.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
WM narrowed 2026 revenue guidance to $26.275–$26.475 billion (≈‑0.5% change), said it remains on track for full‑year operating EBITDA and free cash flow, and raised full‑year operating EBITDA margin guidance by 20 bps to 31.0–31.2%; management expects Collection & Disposal volumes roughly flat in H2 (full‑year C&D volumes ≈‑1% or ~50 bps ex‑2025 wildfire cleanup), about $175M of incremental energy‑surcharge revenue for 2026 (≈$100M realized in Q2), and described a ~$250M volume headwind in Collection & Disposal partly offset by surcharges (net ≈$75M) plus ~ $75M of sustainability/timing impacts (brokerage/RNG). Q2 metrics included a 40‑bp margin expansion (Q2 margin 30.9%), SmartTruck >$300M run‑rate EBITDA, recycling processed +12% tons YoY, +1.6M MMBtu RNG in Q2 (recycling+RNG EBITDA ≈+33% and ~30 bps contribution to company margin), Healthcare Solutions EBITDA margin +200 bps to 19% with $32M cross‑sell EBITDA to date and >$300M synergies targeted by end‑2027, SG&A improved to 9.9% (full year ≈10%; WM HS SG&A to 15–16% run‑rate from >24%), H1 operating cash flow $3.23B (+17% YoY), H1 free cash flow $2.02B (+56% YoY) with conversion ≈52%, capex >18% below prior year, closed $235M of tuck‑ins, finished the quarter at 2.96x leverage (target 2.5–3.0x) and returned $1.764B to shareholders in H1 ($1.0B buybacks, $764M dividends).Waste Management Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 25.67B | 25.20B | 22.06B | 20.43B | 19.70B | 17.93B |
| Gross Profit | 8.99B | 7.33B | 6.41B | 5.75B | 5.37B | 4.82B |
| EBITDA | 7.54B | 7.20B | 6.46B | 5.72B | 5.45B | 4.82B |
| Net Income | 2.85B | 2.71B | 2.75B | 2.30B | 2.24B | 1.82B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 46.44B | 45.84B | 44.57B | 32.82B | 31.37B | 29.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 557.00M | 201.00M | 414.00M | 458.00M | 351.00M | 118.00M |
| Total Debt | 23.36B | 22.91B | 23.90B | 16.23B | 14.98B | 13.40B |
| Total Liabilities | 36.52B | 35.84B | 36.31B | 25.93B | 24.50B | 21.97B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.93B | 9.99B | 8.25B | 6.90B | 6.85B | 7.12B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.57B | 2.82B | 2.16B | 1.82B | 1.95B | 2.43B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.52B | 6.04B | 5.39B | 4.72B | 4.54B | 4.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.08B | -3.57B | -10.60B | -3.09B | -3.06B | -1.89B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.34B | -2.67B | 5.16B | -1.52B | -1.22B | -2.90B |
Waste Management Technical Analysis
Neutral
238.75
Price Trends
225.13
Positive
225.93
Positive
221.82
Positive
Market Momentum
1.81
Positive
43.45
Neutral
15.30
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 238.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 235.09, above the 50-day MA of 225.13, and above the 200-day MA of 221.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.30 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for WM.
Waste Management Risk Analysis
Waste Management disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Waste Management reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Waste Management Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $64.78B | 30.16 | 18.12% | 1.15% | 3.19% | 5.11% | |
74 Outperform | $90.56B | 31.95 | 28.92% | 1.48% | 7.17% | 4.68% | |
72 Outperform | $16.52B | 37.83 | 15.64% | ― | 5.07% | 15.63% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $5.71B | 778.06 | 0.46% | ― | 14.92% | -48.77% | |
52 Neutral | $351.98M | -17.29 | -34.48% | ― | -0.91% | 23.41% | |
48 Neutral | $26.76M | -3.66 | -17.78% | ― | -14.35% | 70.98% |
* Industrials Sector Average
WM
Waste Management
226.43
-0.47
-0.21%
CWST
Casella Waste
91.99
-10.55
-10.29%
CLH
Clean Harbors
310.98
74.55
31.53%
PESI
Perma-Fix
16.78
5.38
47.19%
RSG
Republic Services
209.62
-19.45
-8.49%
QRHC
Quest Resource
1.29
-0.77
-37.38%
Waste Management Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Waste Management Shareholders Back Board, Pay and ESPP Plan
Positive
May 14, 2026
At Waste Management, Inc.’s annual stockholders meeting held on May 12, 2026, shareholders representing a strong majority of outstanding shares elected nine director nominees to the board, signaling continued support for the company’s ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Waste Management Promotes Tara Hemmer to Chief Operating Officer
Positive
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, WM announced that its board promoted longtime executive Tara Hemmer to executive vice president and chief operating officer, succeeding John Morris in the COO role while she continues to oversee recycling, renewable energy and oth...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.