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Republic Services (RSG)
NYSE:RSG
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Republic Services
(NYSE:RSG)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$248.00
▲(8.30% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying business performance and supportive 2026 guidance (cash generation, pricing/yield, and margin resilience), partially offset by premium valuation. Technicals are moderately positive (near-term uptrend with positive momentum), while data-quality inconsistencies in the latest financial statement items add uncertainty and cap the score.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistent, scaling cash generation and steady free cash flow conversion (roughly 52%–56% of net income) provide durable internal funding for capex, acquisitions, dividends and buybacks. This supports financial flexibility and long‑term capital allocation even through cyclical volume dips.
Pricing power and constructive guidance
Demonstrated ability to deliver price/yield above inflation indicates durable margin protection. Management guidance shows mid-single-digit revenue and EBITDA growth, reflecting sustainable revenue yield capture that underpins margins and free cash flow over the medium term.
Sustainability & productivity investments
RNG, polymer centers, electrification and digital routing diversify revenue, lower operating cost and create incremental EBITDA. These structural investments expand higher‑margin service lines, reduce fuel exposure, and offer multi‑year productivity tailwinds and regulatory alignment.
Negative Factors
Organic volume weakness
Persistent volume declines in construction, manufacturing and residential contract shedding are structural risks that limit top‑line growth and constrain operating leverage. Lower volumes reduce fixed‑cost absorption, making margin expansion harder despite pricing and cost initiatives.
Recycling commodity cyclicality
Weak and volatile commodity prices directly depress recycling revenue and squeeze related margins. Given recycling is a meaningful adjunct revenue stream, prolonged low prices reduce predictability of adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow despite core pricing strength.
2025 reporting inconsistency and leverage clarity
Material inconsistencies in 2025 reporting obscure true debt, leverage and coverage metrics. Reduced visibility into capital structure complicates assessment of covenant risk, acquisition funding and dividend sustainability over the next several quarters until statements are reconciled.
Republic Services (RSG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$70.72B
Dividend Yield1.11%
Average Volume (3M)1.44M
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.4
Beta (1Y)0.24
Revenue Growth4.33%
EPS Growth7.59%
CountryUS
Employees42,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.76
Shares Outstanding308,804,960
10 Day Avg. Volume1,444,054
30 Day Avg. Volume1,441,258
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio5.58
Price to Book (P/B)5.52
Price to Sales (P/S)3.98
P/FCF Ratio27.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.33
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.28
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$243.54Price Target Upside6.35% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)7.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$17.13B
Republic Services Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionRepublic Services, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, offers environmental services in the United States. The company offers collection and processing of recyclable materials, collection, transfer and disposal of non-hazardous solid waste, and other environmental solutions. Its collection services include curbside collection of material for transport to transfer stations, landfills, or recycling processing centers; supply of recycling and waste containers; and renting of compactors. In addition, the company engages in the processing and sale of old corrugated containers, old newsprint, aluminum, glass, and other materials; and provision of landfill and transfer services. Further, it offers disposal of non-hazardous solid and liquid material and in-plant services, such as transportation and logistics. It serves small-container, large-container, and residential customers. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated through 356 collection operations, 239 transfer stations, 198 active landfills, 71 recycling processing centers, 6 saltwater disposal wells, and 7 deep injection wells, as well as 3 treatment, recovery, and disposal facilities in 41 states. It also operated 77 landfill gas-to-energy and renewable energy projects and had 124 closed landfills. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona.
How the Company Makes MoneyRepublic Services generates revenue primarily through its waste collection and disposal services. The company charges customers for regular waste pickup, recycling services, and landfill fees. Key revenue streams include residential collection (which encompasses households), commercial collection (serving businesses), and industrial services (providing waste management for larger operations). Additionally, the company benefits from recycling services, where it processes recyclable materials and sells them to manufacturers. Significant partnerships with municipalities and contracts with businesses also contribute to a stable revenue base. Factors such as regulatory requirements for waste disposal and the increasing emphasis on sustainability further enhance Republic Services' earnings potential.
Republic Services Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Shows how revenue is generated across different service types, highlighting key business areas and potential growth drivers within the company’s offerings.
Shows how revenue is generated across different service types, highlighting key business areas and potential growth drivers within the company’s offerings.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRepublic Services Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a solid operating and financial performance in 2025 with revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, margin expansion, strong adjusted free cash flow and disciplined capital returns. Management highlighted meaningful progress on sustainability (polymer centers, RNG), electrification and digital/AI investments that should drive multi‑year productivity and growth. Notable near-term headwinds include organic volume declines (construction/manufacturing and residential shedding), weaker recycled commodity prices, a nonrecurring environmental-services comp in 2024, weather-driven seasonality (Q1 impact) and some margin pressure from acquisitions, fuel and commodity dynamics. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance that reflects modest growth while calling out upside if nonrecurring comps are excluded. Overall, the positives — recurring cash generation, margin discipline, sustainability projects coming online, and a committed capital allocation strategy — outweigh the headwinds, though several demand and commodity risks remain in the near term.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Full-Year Financial Performance
Revenue grew 3.5% in 2025; adjusted EBITDA grew nearly 7%; full-year adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 90 basis points to 32.0%; adjusted EPS of $7.02; adjusted free cash flow of $2.43 billion (up >11% year-over-year); adjusted free cash flow conversion improved 200 basis points to 45.8%.
Strong Pricing and Yield
Fourth quarter core price on total revenue was 5.8%; core price on related revenue was 7.1% (open market pricing 8.7%, restricted 4.6%); average yield on total revenue was 3.7% and average yield on related revenue was 4.5%.
Affirmative 2026 Guidance
Guidance for 2026: revenue $17.05B–$17.15B; adjusted EBITDA $5.475B–$5.525B; adjusted EPS $7.20–$7.28; adjusted free cash flow $2.52B–$2.56B. At midpoint this implies ~3.1% revenue growth, ~3.6% adjusted EBITDA growth and ~4.4% adjusted free cash flow growth; excluding 2025 nonrecurring landfill volumes the midpoint implies nearly 4% top-line and >5% adjusted EBITDA growth.
Customer Loyalty and Digital Engagement
Customer retention remained high at 94%; Net Promoter Score improved in 2025; digital tools handled and optimized ~11 million customer calls annually and the company delivered >70 million proactive service notifications in 2025 to reduce service friction and improve retention.
Sustainability & Renewable Energy Progress
Commercial production commenced at Indianapolis polymer center and co-located Blue Polymers facility; 9 renewable natural gas (RNG) projects came online in 2025 and 4 more are expected in 2026; landfill gas program targeting ~$100M revenue / ~$120M incremental EBITDA run-rate long-term with ~ $40M of that incremental EBITDA expected by end of 2026.
Polymer Centers and RNG Financial Contributions
Polymer centers added roughly $45M of revenue and ~$10M of incremental EBITDA in 2025; polymer centers expected to add ~$30M revenue and ~$10M EBITDA in 2026. RNG and related projects are expected to add incremental revenue and EBITDA (management cited ~$10M incremental revenue and ~$10M incremental EBITDA contribution next year from RNG timing).
Fleet Electrification & Operational Investments
More than 180 electric collection vehicles in operation with 32 commercial-scale EV charging facilities at year-end 2025; company expects to add ~150 EV collection trucks in 2026. Significant investments in AI and routing (RISE platform) expected to deliver multi‑million-dollar annual productivity gains and 'nine-figure' potential efficiency opportunity over time.
Capital Allocation Discipline
Invested $1.1 billion in value-creating acquisitions in 2025 and returned $1.6 billion to shareholders (including $854 million of share repurchases). Management expects to invest approximately $1 billion in acquisitions in 2026 and has already closed >$400 million year-to-date.
People & Cost Management
Employee engagement score improved to 87 (above national benchmarks) and turnover was the best on record; management reported underlying margin expansion (core business) and expects ~60–70 basis points of underlying margin improvement in 2026 before certain headwinds.
Negative Updates
Organic Volume Declines
Organic volume was a headwind in Q4: volume decreased total revenue by 1% and related revenue by 1.2%. Large container volumes declined 3.8% (softness in construction/manufacturing) and residential volumes declined 3% due to shedding underperforming contracts. 2026 guide expects roughly a 1% organic volume decline (with a 60-basis-point headwind from 2025 nonrecurring landfill cleanup volumes).
Recycling Commodity Price Weakness
Recycling commodity prices dropped to $112/ton in Q4 from $153/ton year-ago; full-year 2025 average was $135/ton vs $164/ton prior year. Lower commodity prices were a ~20-basis-point drag on margin in Q4 and are a modeled baseline (~$115/ton) in 2026 guidance, pressuring recycling revenue and margins.
Environmental Solutions Revenue Pressure
Environmental Solutions revenue decreased by $60 million in Q4 y/y; ~ $50 million of that decline was due to an emergency response project in 2024 that did not repeat. ES adjusted EBITDA margin was 20.1% in Q4 and management expects ES to be relatively flat for 2026 with tougher comps in the first half.
Margin Headwinds from External Factors and M&A
Q4 margin performance included offsets: net fuel (-10 bps), recycled commodity prices (-20 bps) and acquisitions (-20 bps) against underlying margin gains. For 2026, acquisitions, commodity pricing and the lack of prior-year high-margin landfill volumes create a drag such that midpoint margin improvement is modest (+~20 bps at midpoint after these offsets).
Macroeconomic & End-Market Softness
Management cited persistent weakness in construction and manufacturing demand and multiple years of negative demand in recycling and waste in parts of the business, leading to a conservative posture on volume growth and guidance until stronger momentum is observed.
Near-Term Weather and Seasonality Headwinds
Winter weather impacted volumes in January (estimated ~$25M impact in January and additional early-February weather), embedded in guidance; Q1 expected to be the weakest quarter due to seasonality, weather and comparisons to 2025 landfill cleanup volumes.
Tax and Noncash Renewable Charges
Management expects an equivalent tax impact of ~24% in 2026 comprised of an adjusted effective tax rate of ~19% plus approximately $190 million of noncash charges from equity investments in renewable energy, which will weigh on GAAP-equivalent tax metrics.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity Considerations
Total debt at year-end was $13.7 billion with total liquidity of $2.0 billion and a leverage ratio of approximately 2.6x. While leverage is within target, the debt level and noncash charges are items to monitor alongside planned acquisition activity (~$1 billion expected in 2026).
Company Guidance
Republic provided 2026 guidance for revenue of $17.05–$17.15 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $5.475–$5.525 billion (midpoint implying roughly a 32.2% adjusted EBITDA margin, ~+20 bps vs. 2025), adjusted EPS of $7.20–$7.28 and adjusted free cash flow of $2.52–$2.56 billion; at the midpoint management said this equates to ~3.1% revenue growth, ~3.6% adjusted EBITDA growth, ~3.1% adjusted EPS growth and ~4.4% adjusted FCF growth (and, absent prior-year wildfire/hurricane landfill volumes, would imply nearly 4% top-line, >5% EBITDA, +50 bps EBITDA margin, ~6% EPS and ~7% FCF growth). They expect average yield on related revenue of 4.0–4.5% (total revenue yield 3.2–3.7%), organic volume to reduce total revenue by ~1% (with a ~60‑bp headwind from 2025 landfill cleanup volumes), about $1.0 billion of acquisitions (already >$400M closed and closed deals add ~70 bps to 2026 growth), ~150 incremental EV collection trucks, four more RNG projects in service (RNG expected to add roughly $10M of revenue and $10M of EBITDA in 2026), polymer centers to add about $30M of revenue and $10M of EBITDA, depreciation/amortization/accretion ~11.6% of revenue, net interest expense ~$575–$585M, an equivalent tax impact of ~24% for 2026 (adjusted tax ~19% plus ~ $190M of noncash equity charges), and a starting balance sheet of ~$13.7B debt, ~$2B liquidity and ~2.6x leverage.Republic Services Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong multi-year revenue growth and improving net margins, with healthy operating cash flow and free cash flow generation. However, multiple 2025 financial statement fields appear inconsistent or missing (e.g., margins, leverage/coverage), reducing confidence in the most recent-year read-through.Income Statement
Revenue has grown strongly over time (from ~$10.2B in 2020 to ~$16.6B in 2025), with mostly steady year-over-year gains after 2020. Profitability is solid and improving: net margin has trended up from ~9.5% (2020) to ~12.9% (2025), and EBITDA margin remains healthy (mid-to-high 20%s, ~23.1% in 2025). A key weakness is data quality in 2025 where gross profit and EBIT margin are shown as zero, which limits full margin validation and slightly tempers confidence in the trend.82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage appears manageable in the historical years, with debt-to-equity around ~1.08–1.25 from 2020–2024 and improving returns on equity (about 11% in 2020 to ~18% in 2024), indicating effective use of capital. However, 2025 balance sheet fields look inconsistent (total debt is reported at ~$0.6B and debt-to-equity at 0.0 versus ~$13B and ~1.14 in 2024), which raises reliability concerns for the most recent period and creates uncertainty around current leverage and capital structure.62
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is strong and scales with earnings: operating cash flow rose from ~$2.47B (2020) to ~$4.30B (2025), and free cash flow increased from ~$1.28B to ~$2.41B. Free cash flow conversion is steady, running at roughly ~52%–56% of net income across the period, supporting quality of earnings. The main drawback is growth volatility: free cash flow growth is negative in 2025 (-4.76%), and the 2025 operating cash flow coverage ratio is reported as 0.0, suggesting missing/invalid coverage data rather than a true deterioration.74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 16.59B | 16.03B | 14.96B | 13.51B | 11.29B |
| Gross Profit | 5.03B | 4.90B | 4.42B | 3.87B | 3.29B |
| EBITDA | 5.25B | 4.77B | 4.32B | 3.66B | 3.15B |
| Net Income | 2.14B | 2.04B | 1.73B | 1.49B | 1.29B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 34.37B | 32.40B | 31.41B | 29.05B | 24.95B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 335.00M | 74.00M | 140.00M | 143.40M | 29.00M |
| Total Debt | 596.00M | 12.96B | 13.07B | 12.08B | 9.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 22.40B | 21.00B | 20.87B | 19.37B | 15.98B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.97B | 11.40B | 10.54B | 9.69B | 8.98B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.41B | 2.08B | 1.99B | 1.74B | 1.47B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.30B | 3.94B | 3.62B | 3.19B | 2.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.31B | -2.56B | -3.67B | -4.42B | -2.47B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -938.00M | -1.40B | 61.90M | 1.34B | -329.20M |
Republic Services Technical Analysis
Positive
229.00
Price Trends
216.09
Positive
215.24
Positive
226.53
Positive
Market Momentum
2.36
Negative
65.33
Neutral
86.41
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RSG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 229 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 220.75, above the 50-day MA of 216.09, and above the 200-day MA of 226.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.41 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RSG.
Republic Services Risk Analysis
Republic Services disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Republic Services reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Republic Services Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $97.14B | 35.95 | 29.69% | 1.50% | 15.88% | -3.11% | |
74 Outperform | $15.51B | 40.28 | 14.70% | ― | 2.85% | -6.27% | |
74 Outperform | $1.05B | -107.23 | -0.17% | ― | 22.77% | 44.73% | |
72 Outperform | $70.72B | 33.42 | 18.31% | 1.11% | 4.33% | 7.59% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
52 Neutral | $5.92B | 754.33 | 0.50% | ― | 20.54% | 106.35% | |
45 Neutral | $1.54B | -8.96 | -38.53% | ― | -2.91% | -67.18% |
* Industrials Sector Average
RSG
Republic Services
229.00
-8.13
-3.43%
CWST
Casella Waste
93.16
-20.60
-18.11%
CLH
Clean Harbors
293.20
85.41
41.10%
NVRI
Enviri
18.93
12.71
204.34%
WM
Waste Management
240.84
10.49
4.55%
MEG
Montrose Environmental Group
29.22
9.35
47.06%
Republic Services Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Republic Services posts strong Q4 results, issues 2026 outlook
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
Republic Services reported on February 17, 2026, that fourth-quarter 2025 net income rose to $545 million, or $1.76 per diluted share, with adjusted earnings and margins improving despite softer volumes and lower recycled commodity prices. For full-year 2025, net income increased to $2.14 billion, adjusted EPS climbed to $7.02, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 32.0%, and the company generated $4.30 billion in operating cash flow and $2.43 billion in adjusted free cash flow while investing $1.1 billion in acquisitions, completing nine renewable natural gas projects and a Polymer Center, and returning $1.6 billion to shareholders.
Looking ahead, Republic issued 2026 guidance calling for revenue of $17.05 billion to $17.15 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $5.475 billion to $5.525 billion, adjusted EPS of $7.20 to $7.28, and adjusted free cash flow of $2.52 billion to $2.56 billion, underpinned by price-driven growth and continued cost discipline amid anticipated volume pressure. The company plans about $1 billion of acquisition spending in 2026, having already deployed roughly $400 million by mid-February, and reaffirmed its capital-return strategy with a declared quarterly dividend of $0.625 per share for payment on April 15, 2026.
The most recent analyst rating on (RSG) stock is a Hold with a $220.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Republic Services stock, see the RSG Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividends
Republic Services Appoints New Director and Declares Dividend
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Republic Services, Inc. is a leader in the environmental services industry, providing a broad suite of recycling, solid waste, special waste, hazardous waste and field services through its subsidiaries. The company focuses on advancing circularity and supporting decarbonization, positioning itself as a partner to customers seeking more sustainable waste-management and environmental solutions.
Republic Services announced that on February 10, 2026, its board appointed Ian Craig, chief executive of Coca-Cola FEMSA, to serve as a director and member of the audit and sustainability committees, expanding the board to 13 members and adding deep international, digital and sustainability expertise. On the same date, the board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.625 per share, payable April 15, 2026 to shareholders of record on April 2, 2026, underscoring the company’s continued commitment to shareholder returns alongside its strategic expansion and innovation priorities.
The most recent analyst rating on (RSG) stock is a Hold with a $220.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Republic Services stock, see the RSG Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.