Republic Services (RSG)
NYSE:RSG
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Republic Services
(NYSE:RSG)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$248.00
▲(15.05% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying business performance and supportive 2026 guidance (cash generation, pricing/yield, and margin resilience), partially offset by premium valuation. Technicals are moderately positive (near-term uptrend with positive momentum), while data-quality inconsistencies in the latest financial statement items add uncertainty and cap the score.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistent, scaling cash generation and steady free cash flow conversion (roughly 52%–56% of net income) provide durable internal funding for capex, acquisitions, dividends and buybacks. This supports financial flexibility and long‑term capital allocation even through cyclical volume dips.
Negative Factors
Organic volume weakness
Persistent volume declines in construction, manufacturing and residential contract shedding are structural risks that limit top‑line growth and constrain operating leverage. Lower volumes reduce fixed‑cost absorption, making margin expansion harder despite pricing and cost initiatives.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Consistent, scaling cash generation and steady free cash flow conversion (roughly 52%–56% of net income) provide durable internal funding for capex, acquisitions, dividends and buybacks. This supports financial flexibility and long‑term capital allocation even through cyclical volume dips.
Read all positive factors
Republic Services (RSG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$66.56B
Dividend Yield1.11%
Average Volume (3M)1.36M
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.9
Beta (1Y)0.25
Revenue Growth4.33%
EPS Growth7.59%
CountryUS
Employees42,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.76
Shares Outstanding308,804,960
10 Day Avg. Volume1,302,570
30 Day Avg. Volume1,358,221
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio5.58
Price to Book (P/B)5.52
Price to Sales (P/S)3.98
P/FCF Ratio27.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.46
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.05
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$247.35Price Target Upside14.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)7.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$17.13B
Republic Services Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Republic Services, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, offers environmental services in the United States. The company offers collection and processing of recyclable materials, collection, transfer and disposal of non-hazardous solid waste, and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Republic Services generates revenue primarily through its waste collection and disposal services. The company charges customers for regular waste pickup, recycling services, and landfill fees. Key revenue streams include residential collection (wh...
Republic Services Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Shows how revenue is generated across different service types, highlighting key business areas and potential growth drivers within the company’s offerings.
Shows how revenue is generated across different service types, highlighting key business areas and potential growth drivers within the company’s offerings.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRepublic Services Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a solid operating and financial performance in 2025 with revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, margin expansion, strong adjusted free cash flow and disciplined capital returns. Management highlighted meaningful progress on sustainability (polymer centers, RNG), electrification and digital/AI investments that should drive multi‑year productivity and growth. Notable near-term headwinds include organic volume declines (construction/manufacturing and residential shedding), weaker recycled commodity prices, a nonrecurring environmental-services comp in 2024, weather-driven seasonality (Q1 impact) and some margin pressure from acquisitions, fuel and commodity dynamics. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance that reflects modest growth while calling out upside if nonrecurring comps are excluded. Overall, the positives — recurring cash generation, margin discipline, sustainability projects coming online, and a committed capital allocation strategy — outweigh the headwinds, though several demand and commodity risks remain in the near term.Positive Updates
Full-Year Financial Performance
Revenue grew 3.5% in 2025; adjusted EBITDA grew nearly 7%; full-year adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 90 basis points to 32.0%; adjusted EPS of $7.02; adjusted free cash flow of $2.43 billion (up >11% year-over-year); adjusted free cash flow conversion improved 200 basis points to 45.8%.
Negative Updates
Organic Volume Declines
Organic volume was a headwind in Q4: volume decreased total revenue by 1% and related revenue by 1.2%. Large container volumes declined 3.8% (softness in construction/manufacturing) and residential volumes declined 3% due to shedding underperforming contracts. 2026 guide expects roughly a 1% organic volume decline (with a 60-basis-point headwind from 2025 nonrecurring landfill cleanup volumes).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Financial Performance
Revenue grew 3.5% in 2025; adjusted EBITDA grew nearly 7%; full-year adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 90 basis points to 32.0%; adjusted EPS of $7.02; adjusted free cash flow of $2.43 billion (up >11% year-over-year); adjusted free cash flow conversion improved 200 basis points to 45.8%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Republic provided 2026 guidance for revenue of $17.05–$17.15 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $5.475–$5.525 billion (midpoint implying roughly a 32.2% adjusted EBITDA margin, ~+20 bps vs. 2025), adjusted EPS of $7.20–$7.28 and adjusted free cash flow of $2.52–$2.56 billion; at the midpoint management said this equates to ~3.1% revenue growth, ~3.6% adjusted EBITDA growth, ~3.1% adjusted EPS growth and ~4.4% adjusted FCF growth (and, absent prior-year wildfire/hurricane landfill volumes, would imply nearly 4% top-line, >5% EBITDA, +50 bps EBITDA margin, ~6% EPS and ~7% FCF growth). They expect average yield on related revenue of 4.0–4.5% (total revenue yield 3.2–3.7%), organic volume to reduce total revenue by ~1% (with a ~60‑bp headwind from 2025 landfill cleanup volumes), about $1.0 billion of acquisitions (already >$400M closed and closed deals add ~70 bps to 2026 growth), ~150 incremental EV collection trucks, four more RNG projects in service (RNG expected to add roughly $10M of revenue and $10M of EBITDA in 2026), polymer centers to add about $30M of revenue and $10M of EBITDA, depreciation/amortization/accretion ~11.6% of revenue, net interest expense ~$575–$585M, an equivalent tax impact of ~24% for 2026 (adjusted tax ~19% plus ~ $190M of noncash equity charges), and a starting balance sheet of ~$13.7B debt, ~$2B liquidity and ~2.6x leverage.Republic Services Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 16.59B | 16.03B | 14.96B | 13.51B | 11.29B |
| Gross Profit | 5.03B | 4.90B | 4.42B | 3.87B | 3.29B |
| EBITDA | 5.25B | 4.77B | 4.32B | 3.66B | 3.15B |
| Net Income | 2.14B | 2.04B | 1.73B | 1.49B | 1.29B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 34.37B | 32.40B | 31.41B | 29.05B | 24.95B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 335.00M | 74.00M | 140.00M | 143.40M | 29.00M |
| Total Debt | 596.00M | 12.96B | 13.07B | 12.08B | 9.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 22.40B | 21.00B | 20.87B | 19.37B | 15.98B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.97B | 11.40B | 10.54B | 9.69B | 8.98B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.41B | 2.08B | 1.99B | 1.74B | 1.47B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.30B | 3.94B | 3.62B | 3.19B | 2.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.31B | -2.56B | -3.67B | -4.42B | -2.47B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -938.00M | -1.40B | 61.90M | 1.34B | -329.20M |
Republic Services Technical Analysis
Negative
215.55
Price Trends
220.59
Negative
215.97
Negative
224.32
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.28
Positive
36.21
Neutral
9.98
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RSG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 215.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 224.94, below the 50-day MA of 220.59, and below the 200-day MA of 224.32, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.98 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RSG.
Republic Services Risk Analysis
Republic Services disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Republic Services reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Republic Services Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $15.25B | 31.90 | 14.47% | ― | 2.85% | -6.27% | |
74 Outperform | $820.00M | ― | -0.17% | ― | 22.77% | 44.73% | |
72 Outperform | $66.56B | 30.90 | 18.00% | 1.11% | 4.33% | 7.59% | |
68 Neutral | $90.69B | 32.67 | 28.99% | 1.50% | 15.88% | -3.11% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | $4.85B | 789.67 | 0.50% | ― | 20.54% | 106.35% | |
45 Neutral | $1.53B | -8.63 | -38.53% | ― | -2.91% | -67.18% |
* Industrials Sector Average
RSG
Republic Services
215.55
-21.72
-9.16%
CWST
Casella Waste
76.43
-34.31
-30.98%
CLH
Clean Harbors
288.29
88.86
44.56%
NVRI
Enviri
18.79
11.74
166.52%
WM
Waste Management
224.85
-0.75
-0.33%
MEG
Montrose Environmental Group
22.79
7.97
53.78%
Republic Services Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Republic Services posts strong Q4 results, issues 2026 outlook
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
Republic Services reported on February 17, 2026, that fourth-quarter 2025 net income rose to $545 million, or $1.76 per diluted share, with adjusted earnings and margins improving despite softer volumes and lower recycled commodity prices. For ful...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividends
Republic Services Appoints New Director and Declares Dividend
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Republic Services, Inc. is a leader in the environmental services industry, providing a broad suite of recycling, solid waste, special waste, hazardous waste and field services through its subsidiaries. The company focuses on advancing circularity...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.