Republic Services (RSG)
NYSE:RSG
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Republic Services
(NYSE:RSG)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$223.00
▲(7.39% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/12/26
Strong financial performance and a constructive earnings outlook (reaffirmed guidance, margin expansion, and strong free cash flow) drive the score. This is tempered by weak technicals (downtrend across key moving averages) and a premium valuation (high P/E with a modest dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Recurring pricing and retention
High customer retention and durable pricing execution underpin recurring revenue and protect margins across economic cycles. Multi-year contract structures and demonstrated ability to deliver core price in excess of inflation provide a steady revenue base and durable margin support over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Residential volume weakness
Sustained residential volume declines reduce utilization of collection routes and disposal volumes, pressuring revenue growth and spreading fixed costs. If persistent, this trend can compress margins and constrain free cash flow growth until volumes or pricing recover.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring pricing and retention
High customer retention and durable pricing execution underpin recurring revenue and protect margins across economic cycles. Multi-year contract structures and demonstrated ability to deliver core price in excess of inflation provide a steady revenue base and durable margin support over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
Republic Services Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Shows how revenue is generated across different service types, highlighting key business areas and potential growth drivers within the company’s offerings.
Shows how revenue is generated across different service types, highlighting key business areas and potential growth drivers within the company’s offerings.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRepublic Services (RSG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$63.26B
Dividend Yield1.11%
Average Volume (3M)1.83M
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.0
Beta (1Y)0.18
Revenue Growth3.19%
EPS Growth5.11%
CountryUS
Employees42,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.98
Shares Outstanding307,664,100
10 Day Avg. Volume1,965,506
30 Day Avg. Volume1,830,099
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio5.58
Price to Book (P/B)5.52
Price to Sales (P/S)3.98
P/FCF Ratio27.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$249.65Price Target Upside20.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)7.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)$17.19B
Republic Services Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Republic Services, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, offers environmental services in the United States. The company offers collection and processing of recyclable materials, collection, transfer and disposal of non-hazardous solid waste, and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Republic Services primarily makes money by charging recurring service fees for waste and recycling collection and by earning fees tied to the processing and disposal of materials across its owned and operated infrastructure.
Key revenue streams i...
Republic Services Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Republic Services reported a solid quarter with revenue up 2.6%, adjusted EBITDA and margins expanding, and materially stronger free cash flow (+>35%). Management highlighted durable pricing execution, strong customer retention (94%), advancing digital/AI and sustainability initiatives (polymer centers, RNG, EV deployment) and an active M&A program. Key near-term challenges include volume declines (notably residential down 5.2%), lower recycled commodity prices (from $155 to $120/ton), diesel-driven fuel cost pressure (≈$8M EBITDA headwind) and a year-over-year revenue decline in Environmental Solutions (‑$44M) partly due to a non-repeat event. Management expects fuel recovery to begin offsetting higher fuel costs in Q2 and anticipates ES and other volumes to improve in the second half. On balance, the call emphasized operational discipline, cash generation and clear multi-year growth levers while acknowledging manageable near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Revenue and Earnings Growth
Revenue grew 2.6% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA increased 4.3%; adjusted EPS of $1.70 for Q1 2026.
Negative Updates
Volume Pressure — Residential and Large Container
Organic volume decreased related revenue by 1% and reduced total revenue by 80 basis points; residential volumes down 5.2% and large container volumes down 2.5% (though large container improved sequentially by 130 basis points).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Earnings Growth
Revenue grew 2.6% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA increased 4.3%; adjusted EPS of $1.70 for Q1 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Republic reaffirmed the February full‑year guidance, saying Q1 results position the company to achieve it and highlighting numerous milestones and targets: Q1 revenue grew 2.6%, adjusted EBITDA rose 4.3% with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding 50 basis points to 32.1%, adjusted EPS was $1.70 and adjusted free cash flow was $984 million (up >35% YoY); core price on total revenue was 5.7% and 6.8% on related revenue (open market 8.4%, restricted 4.4%), average yield was 3.4% (total) and 4.1% (related) with combined yield+volume growth of 1.2% while volume reduced total revenue by 80 bps (related revenue down 1%) and severe weather cost ~ $30 million in Q1; recycling commodity prices were $120/ton in Q1 (≈$125/ton current); Q1 diesel price spikes reduced EBITDA by ~$8 million but fuel recovery fees are expected to offset higher fuel costs beginning in Q2; Environmental Solutions revenue was down $44 million with a 19.2% adjusted EBITDA margin (≈ one‑third of the decline from a ~$15 million 2025 emergency response job) and management expects ES year‑over‑year revenue growth in the second half; digital/AI investments are expected to deliver at least $100 million of annual benefit by 2028; RNG had 9 projects online in 2025 with 4 more expected in 2026 to reach 82, contributing ~$10M revenue/$10M EBITDA in 2026 and ramping toward $20M by 2030 (and ~$100M incremental revenue by decade end); fleet electrification: >200 EV collection vehicles at quarter end, >300 expected by year‑end; capital allocation: >$700M of acquisitions to date (incl. $433M in Q1) with plans to exceed $1B this year, returned $507M to shareholders in Q1 (including $314M buybacks), YTD CapEx $249M (12% of full‑year), total debt $14B, liquidity $1.8B, leverage ~2.6x, and an equivalent tax impact of 24.9%; near‑term margin outlook is expected to be flat to slightly down year‑over‑year in Q2, consistent with February guidance.Republic Services Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
83
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.70B | 16.59B | 16.03B | 14.96B | 13.51B | 11.29B |
| Gross Profit | 6.52B | 6.96B | 4.90B | 4.42B | 3.87B | 3.29B |
| EBITDA | 5.15B | 5.10B | 4.77B | 4.32B | 3.66B | 3.15B |
| Net Income | 2.17B | 2.14B | 2.04B | 1.73B | 1.49B | 1.29B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 34.60B | 34.37B | 32.40B | 31.41B | 29.05B | 24.95B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 410.00M | 335.00M | 74.00M | 140.00M | 143.40M | 29.00M |
| Total Debt | 547.00M | 596.00M | 12.96B | 13.07B | 12.08B | 9.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 22.62B | 22.40B | 21.00B | 20.87B | 19.37B | 15.98B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.98B | 11.97B | 11.40B | 10.54B | 9.69B | 8.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.59B | 2.41B | 2.08B | 1.99B | 1.74B | 1.47B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.50B | 4.30B | 3.94B | 3.62B | 3.19B | 2.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.94B | -3.31B | -2.56B | -3.67B | -4.42B | -2.47B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.46B | -938.00M | -1.40B | 61.90M | 1.34B | -329.20M |
Republic Services Technical Analysis
Negative
207.66
Price Trends
211.08
Negative
215.09
Negative
217.11
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.86
Negative
42.57
Neutral
16.05
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RSG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 207.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 206.17, below the 50-day MA of 211.08, and below the 200-day MA of 217.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.86 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.05 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RSG.
Republic Services Risk Analysis
Republic Services disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Republic Services reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
Republic Services Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $63.26B | 29.03 | 18.12% | 1.11% | 3.19% | 5.11% | |
69 Neutral | $14.94B | 37.49 | 14.37% | ― | 1.90% | 2.13% | |
67 Neutral | $86.58B | 30.94 | 28.85% | 1.50% | 10.87% | 4.11% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | $5.49B | 749.32 | 0.46% | ― | 14.92% | -48.77% | |
50 Neutral | $1.66B | -10.38 | -54.89% | ― | -2.08% | -34.89% |
* Industrials Sector Average
RSG
Republic Services
200.44
-54.06
-21.24%
CWST
Casella Waste
82.17
-35.04
-29.90%
CLH
Clean Harbors
281.03
54.24
23.92%
NVRI
Enviri
20.75
12.60
154.60%
WM
Waste Management
211.46
-25.91
-10.92%
Republic Services Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Republic Services shareholders endorse board, pay and auditors
Positive
May 11, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Republic Services, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where investors elected all nominated directors to one-year terms and approved the advisory vote on compensation for the company’s named executive officers...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Republic Services Delivers Strong First-Quarter 2026 Results
Positive
May 7, 2026
Republic Services, Inc. reported solid first‑quarter 2026 results on May 7, 2026, posting net income of $525 million, or $1.70 per diluted share, up from $495 million, or $1.58 per share, a year earlier, with adjusted figures matching report...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Republic Services posts strong Q4 results, issues 2026 outlook
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
Republic Services reported on February 17, 2026, that fourth-quarter 2025 net income rose to $545 million, or $1.76 per diluted share, with adjusted earnings and margins improving despite softer volumes and lower recycled commodity prices. For ful...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividends
Republic Services Appoints New Director and Declares Dividend
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Republic Services, Inc. is a leader in the environmental services industry, providing a broad suite of recycling, solid waste, special waste, hazardous waste and field services through its subsidiaries. The company focuses on advancing circularity...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.