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Republic Services
(NYSE:RSG)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$240.00
▲(10.64% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/09/26
The score is supported primarily by strong financial performance (consistent growth and expanding cash flow) and a positive earnings update with raised 2026 guidance and sustained high margins. Offsetting factors are mixed near-term technical momentum and a relatively expensive valuation (P/E ~30) with only a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Operating cash flow and free cash flow have scaled materially over 2021–TTM, producing durable internal funding. Sustained FCF supports the dividend track record, disciplined buybacks and multi-hundred‑million dollar annual M&A without sole reliance on capital markets, bolstering long-term financial flexibility.
Negative Factors
Leverage reporting inconsistency
Material swings in reported debt and leverage metrics hamper clear assessment of balance sheet strength. Uncertainty around true leverage complicates evaluation of covenant headroom, refinancing risk and the company's capacity to fund large M&A or absorb shocks without raising costly external capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Operating cash flow and free cash flow have scaled materially over 2021–TTM, producing durable internal funding. Sustained FCF supports the dividend track record, disciplined buybacks and multi-hundred‑million dollar annual M&A without sole reliance on capital markets, bolstering long-term financial flexibility.
Read all positive factors
Republic Services Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Shows how revenue is generated across different service types, highlighting key business areas and potential growth drivers within the company’s offerings.
Shows how revenue is generated across different service types, highlighting key business areas and potential growth drivers within the company’s offerings.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRepublic Services (RSG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$66.01B
Dividend Yield1.16%
Average Volume (3M)1.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.4
Beta (1Y)0.13
Revenue Growth3.21%
EPS Growth4.30%
CountryUS
Employees42,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.06
Shares Outstanding306,212,980
10 Day Avg. Volume1,299,173
30 Day Avg. Volume1,386,165
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio5.58
Price to Book (P/B)5.52
Price to Sales (P/S)3.98
P/FCF Ratio27.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$245.56Price Target Upside13.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)7.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)$17.28B
Republic Services Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Republic Services, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, delivers comprehensive environmental services across the United States. The company specializes in the collection and processing of recyclable materials, alongside the gathering, transfer, and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Republic Services primarily makes money by charging recurring service fees for collecting and processing customers’ waste and recyclable materials, along with fees for disposing of waste at landfills and handling material through transfer and proc...
Republic Services Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed solid operational and financial performance with multiple constructive developments: top- and bottom-line growth, maintained high margins (32.1%), strong pricing, raised full-year guidance, robust cash generation YTD, accelerating sustainability projects (Polymer Centers, RNG, EV fleet), active M&A and clear digital/AI roadmaps. Offsetting these positives were volume headwinds (notably residential and large container), recycled commodity price weakness, prior-year landfill event comps that pressured margins, and normal seasonality/CapEx timing that will weigh on H2 cash conversion. On balance, management appears confident in mid-to-long-term prospects and has actionable plans to drive margin and growth, while near-term volume and commodity/fuel timing create manageable headwinds.Positive Updates
Top- and Bottom-Line Growth
Revenue increased 4.6% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA grew 4.5% in Q2 2026; adjusted EBITDA margin was maintained at 32.1%.
Negative Updates
Volume Softness — Residential and Large Container
Organic volume declined 1.9% on related revenue (1.6% on total revenue). Residential volume decreased 4.3% (driven by known contract losses) and large container volumes declined 2.2% primarily due to continued softness in construction-related activity.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top- and Bottom-Line Growth
Revenue increased 4.6% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA grew 4.5% in Q2 2026; adjusted EBITDA margin was maintained at 32.1%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Republic raised full-year 2026 guidance to revenue of $17.2–$17.3 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $5.525–$5.55 billion, adjusted EPS of $7.23–$7.28 and adjusted free cash flow of $2.54–$2.575 billion; the update reflects higher-than-expected fuel recovery fee revenue through July, stronger recycling commodity prices (current ~ $140/ton, implying a full-year average of ~ $135/ton) and the contribution of acquisitions. Management noted H1 strategic acquisitions of about $860 million, expects to invest more than $1.2 billion in acquisitions in 2026 (roughly $1.2 billion closed and included in the guide), and reported YTD adjusted free cash flow of $1.58 billion. Key operating and balance-sheet metrics cited alongside the guidance: Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin of 32.1%, total debt of $14.2 billion, total liquidity of $2.8 billion, leverage of ~2.6x, and an expected equivalent tax impact of ~24.5% for the year.Republic Services Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.89B | 16.59B | 16.03B | 14.96B | 13.51B | 11.29B |
| Gross Profit | 6.60B | 6.96B | 4.90B | 4.42B | 3.87B | 3.29B |
| EBITDA | 5.63B | 5.10B | 4.77B | 4.32B | 3.66B | 3.15B |
| Net Income | 2.19B | 2.14B | 2.04B | 1.73B | 1.49B | 1.29B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 35.16B | 34.37B | 32.40B | 31.41B | 29.05B | 24.95B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 107.00M | 335.00M | 74.00M | 140.00M | 143.40M | 29.00M |
| Total Debt | 14.07B | 596.00M | 12.96B | 13.07B | 12.08B | 9.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 23.13B | 22.40B | 21.00B | 20.87B | 19.37B | 15.98B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.03B | 11.97B | 11.40B | 10.54B | 9.69B | 8.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.40B | 2.41B | 2.08B | 1.99B | 1.74B | 1.47B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.77B | 4.30B | 3.94B | 3.62B | 3.19B | 2.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.13B | -3.31B | -2.56B | -3.67B | -4.42B | -2.47B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.51B | -938.00M | -1.40B | 61.90M | 1.34B | -329.20M |
Republic Services Technical Analysis
Positive
216.91
Price Trends
212.36
Positive
211.62
Positive
213.17
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.18
Positive
51.17
Neutral
31.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RSG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 216.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 215.82, above the 50-day MA of 212.36, and above the 200-day MA of 213.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RSG.
Republic Services Risk Analysis
Republic Services disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Republic Services reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
Republic Services Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $66.01B | 30.40 | 18.12% | 1.15% | 3.21% | 4.30% | |
74 Outperform | $16.27B | 37.48 | 15.64% | ― | 5.07% | 15.63% | |
74 Outperform | $91.01B | 31.96 | 28.92% | 1.48% | 7.17% | 4.68% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $5.69B | 965.56 | 0.36% | ― | 13.59% | -50.47% | |
52 Neutral | $383.36M | -18.51 | -34.48% | ― | -0.91% | 23.41% | |
46 Neutral | $31.61M | -1.80 | -17.78% | ― | -8.37% | 32.03% |
* Industrials Sector Average
RSG
Republic Services
214.62
-19.71
-8.41%
CWST
Casella Waste
89.99
-9.96
-9.96%
CLH
Clean Harbors
310.00
71.97
30.24%
PESI
Perma-Fix
17.77
6.09
52.14%
WM
Waste Management
226.60
-6.76
-2.90%
QRHC
Quest Resource
1.48
-0.48
-24.49%
Republic Services Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Republic Services Raises 2026 Guidance and Dividend Payout
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
On August 6, 2026, Republic Services reported second-quarter net income of $566 million, or $1.84 per diluted share, up from $550 million and $1.75 a year earlier, with adjusted EPS rising to $1.85. Revenue grew 4.6% on strong pricing and discipli...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Republic Services Boosts Quarterly Dividend for Shareholders
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 28, 2026, Republic Services, Inc.’s board approved a 4.5 cent increase in the company’s regular quarterly dividend, lifting it to $0.670 per share. The dividend will be paid on October 15, 2026 to shareholders of record as of O...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Republic Services Prices New Investment-Grade Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 24, 2026
On June 22, 2026, Republic Services, Inc. agreed to sell $700 million of 4.750% notes due 2031 and $500 million of 5.000% notes due 2036 under an underwriting agreement with BofA Securities, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, with the offering ...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Republic Services shareholders endorse board, pay and auditors
Positive
May 11, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Republic Services, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where investors elected all nominated directors to one-year terms and approved the advisory vote on compensation for the company’s named executive officers...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.