Casella Waste Systems (CWST)
NASDAQ:CWST
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Casella Waste
(NASDAQ:CWST)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$90.00
▲(10.81% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/02/26
CWST’s score is driven most by solid cash-flow performance and a constructive earnings update (raised 2026 guidance and margin/cost initiatives). These positives are tempered by materially weakened reported profitability/returns and an unfavorable valuation read from a negative P/E, while technical indicators remain mixed with negative momentum versus longer-term averages.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow growth and rising free cash flow provide durable internal funding for capex, tuck‑ins, and debt servicing. Over the next 2–6 months this cash profile supports liquidity, funds fleet refreshes and M&A integration, and reduces reliance on external financing for organic investments.
Negative Factors
Net margin compression
A sharp decline in net income and ROE reflects structural pressure below the EBITDA line (depreciation, interest, taxes or one‑offs). Even with healthy EBITDA, sustained low net margins constrain return on invested capital, limit reinvestment or shareholder returns, and increase sensitivity to cost or volume shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow growth and rising free cash flow provide durable internal funding for capex, tuck‑ins, and debt servicing. Over the next 2–6 months this cash profile supports liquidity, funds fleet refreshes and M&A integration, and reduces reliance on external financing for organic investments.
Read all positive factors
Casella Waste (CWST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.52B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)824.59K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth14.92%
EPS Growth-48.77%
CountryUS
Employees5,100
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares Outstanding62,621,635
10 Day Avg. Volume726,879
30 Day Avg. Volume824,590
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-16.51
Price to Book (P/B)3.96
Price to Sales (P/S)3.38
P/FCF Ratio73.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.19
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.47
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.89
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$115.30Price Target Upside41.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.02B
Casella Waste Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Casella Waste Systems, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a vertically integrated solid waste services company in the northeastern United States. It offers resource management services primarily in the areas of solid waste collectio...
How the Company Makes Money
Casella makes money by charging fees for a set of integrated waste and recycling services and by monetizing the materials and environmental assets it manages.
Key revenue streams typically include:
1) Solid waste collection (hauling) services: Ca...
Casella Waste Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Casella Waste Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive operational and financial performance: strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, margin expansion in the base business, effective fuel recovery and cost programs, active M&A adding scale, safety and technology investments, and constructive permitting and rail-transfer progress. Headwinds included transient volume softness (weather-driven), meaningful pressure in recycled commodity pricing (though largely contract-mitigated), initial margin dilution from acquisitions and some near-term uncertainty around RNG monetization and base-business guidance updates. Overall, the company positioned itself as executing well operationally while remaining cautious about some cyclical and integration-related risks.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $457.3M in Q1 2026, up 9.6% year-over-year (+$40.2M), driven by acquisitions ($23.9M) and same-store growth ($16.2M, 3.9%). Company raised 2026 revenue guidance to $2.06B–$2.08B (+$90M).
Negative Updates
Volume Softness and Weather Impact
Total solid waste volume down 2.5% YoY (collection volume down 2.1%), with roll-off volumes notably weaker (roll-off down ~3%+). Management attributed part of the softness to challenging winter weather.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $457.3M in Q1 2026, up 9.6% year-over-year (+$40.2M), driven by acquisitions ($23.9M) and same-store growth ($16.2M, 3.9%). Company raised 2026 revenue guidance to $2.06B–$2.08B (+$90M).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Casella raised 2026 guidance to revenue of $2.06–2.08 billion (up ~$90M), adjusted EBITDA of $473–483 million (up ~$18M) and adjusted free cash flow of $200–210 million (up ~$5M), which implies roughly 14% adjusted FCF growth at the midpoint and assumes an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~20%; the revision reflects ~ $120M of new annualized revenue for nine months from recent acquisitions (four closed YTD, including Star Waste ~ $100M). Quarterly context: Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $97.1M (up 12.3% YoY) with a 21.2% adjusted EBITDA margin (base business margin expansion of 65 bps, overall +50 bps). Balance sheet and liquidity assumptions: March 31 debt $1.16B, cash $127M, consolidated net leverage 2.29x (pro forma ~2.75x after April 1 deals) and ~ $500M available liquidity to fund tuck‑ins; guidance also reflects operating cost savings targets ($5M in 2026 and another $10M over the next two years) and $15M of targeted G&A savings over three years (first phase delivering in H2 2026), with typical FCF conversion from EBITDA and incremental net interest impact assumed for deal financing.Casella Waste Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
48
Neutral
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.88B | 1.84B | 1.56B | 1.26B | 1.09B | 889.21M |
| Gross Profit | 397.45M | 313.40M | 295.04M | 261.80M | 235.62M | 203.22M |
| EBITDA | 412.00M | 393.60M | 321.52M | 274.17M | 248.29M | 208.78M |
| Net Income | 7.14M | 7.87M | 13.54M | 25.40M | 53.08M | 41.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.27B | 3.41B | 3.33B | 2.54B | 1.45B | 1.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 126.90M | 123.77M | 383.30M | 220.91M | 71.15M | 33.81M |
| Total Debt | 1.24B | 1.24B | 1.21B | 1.12B | 665.33M | 616.09M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.70B | 1.84B | 1.78B | 1.51B | 951.32M | 861.12M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.57B | 1.57B | 1.55B | 1.02B | 497.90M | 422.46M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 102.33M | 84.70M | 78.13M | 78.19M | 86.35M | 59.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 341.91M | 329.78M | 281.36M | 233.09M | 217.31M | 182.74M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -454.51M | -469.15M | -670.61M | -1.01B | -206.92M | -293.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -30.39M | -27.07M | 551.64M | 922.30M | 26.95M | -10.12M |
Casella Waste Technical Analysis
Negative
81.22
Price Trends
89.85
Negative
95.07
Negative
95.64
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.51
Negative
40.81
Neutral
10.48
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CWST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 81.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 81.60, below the 50-day MA of 89.85, and below the 200-day MA of 95.64, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.48 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CWST.
Casella Waste Risk Analysis
Casella Waste disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Casella Waste reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Casella Waste Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $16.60B | 31.90 | 14.47% | ― | 2.39% | -2.06% | |
73 Outperform | $91.87B | 32.04 | 28.85% | 1.50% | 10.87% | 4.11% | |
72 Outperform | $63.82B | 30.90 | 18.00% | 1.11% | 3.49% | 5.61% | |
65 Neutral | $800.80M | -1,034.44 | -0.17% | ― | 19.26% | 93.06% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | $5.52B | -227.55 | 0.50% | ― | 14.92% | -48.77% | |
45 Neutral | $1.63B | -4.15 | -48.78% | ― | -4.29% | -32.32% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CWST
Casella Waste
86.83
-31.41
-26.56%
CLH
Clean Harbors
311.43
88.64
39.79%
NVRI
Enviri
19.66
12.76
184.93%
RSG
Republic Services
206.56
-41.45
-16.71%
WM
Waste Management
228.77
-2.51
-1.09%
MEG
Montrose Environmental Group
22.14
6.96
45.85%
Casella Waste Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Casella Waste Expands Equipment Leasing and Financing Capacity
Positive
Apr 22, 2026
On April 20, 2026, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. and several subsidiaries entered into a new master lease arrangement with Huntington National Bank to lease or finance motor vehicles and other equipment on an ongoing, uncommitted basis, supported by...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Casella Waste Announces COO Resignation and Leadership Transition
Neutral
Mar 10, 2026
On March 6, 2026, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. disclosed that Sean Steves decided to resign as Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Solid Waste Operations, effective March 20, 2026, to pursue opportunities outside the waste and recy...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.