Casella Waste (CWST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.26B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 569.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 545.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.47
• Revenue Growth: 20.35%
• EPS Growth: -45.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,100
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 80
• Industry: Waste Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.36
• Shares Outstanding: 62,502,262
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 505,426
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 569,480
• PEG Ratio: -9.31
• Price to Book (P/B): <0.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.05
• P/FCF Ratio: 80.97
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 27.27
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 23.32
• 1Y Price Target: $121.70
• Price Target Upside: 23.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $101.00 ▲(2.48% Upside)

Casella Waste's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its stable financial position and strong earnings call performance. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and the high P/E ratio indicates potential overvaluation. The successful bond remarketing is a positive corporate event, but the overall score is moderated by the need for improved profitability and cash flow stability.

Positive Factors

Leadership

Coletta has been a key executive and driver of the company’s performance for well over a decade, positioning Casella to further build shareholder value and profitably grow the business.

Revenue

Casella’s revenue nicely beat consensus on strong organic performance, primarily resource solutions and improving landfill volumes.

Negative Factors

Integration Challenges

The stock weakness is largely related to margin headwinds driven by integration challenges in the Mid-Atlantic region.

Margins

Margins were down 80 basis points year-over-year and missed by 100 basis points, with a noted dilutive impact from recent acquisitions and slower synergy capture.

Casella Waste Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Casella Waste Systems, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a vertically integrated solid waste services company in the northeastern United States. It offers resource management services primarily in the areas of solid waste collection and disposal, transfer, recycling, and organics services to residential, commercial, municipal, institutional, and industrial customers. The company provides a range of non-hazardous solid waste services, including collections, transfer stations, and disposal facilities. It also markets recyclable metals, aluminum, plastics, and paper and corrugated cardboard that are processed at its facilities, as well as recyclables purchased from third parties. In addition, the company is involved in commodity brokerage operations. As of January 31, 2022, it owned and/or operated 50 solid waste collection operations, 65 transfer stations, 23 recycling facilities, 8 Subtitle D landfills, 3 landfill gas-to-energy facilities, and 1 landfill permitted to accept construction and demolition materials. Casella Waste Systems, Inc. was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Rutland, Vermont.

How the Company Makes Money

Casella Waste generates revenue primarily through its waste collection and disposal services, which include residential, commercial, and industrial waste management. The company's revenue model is based on service contracts and fee structures that vary by customer type and service level. Key revenue streams include tipping fees from landfills, revenue from recycling operations, and collection fees from waste management services. Casella also benefits from partnerships with municipalities and businesses, providing them with tailored waste solutions that contribute to the company's earnings. Additionally, the company's focus on sustainability and environmental compliance enhances its market position and attracts clients looking for eco-friendly waste management options.

Casella Waste Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Casella Waste demonstrates strong revenue growth and cash flow generation, supported by a stable balance sheet with low leverage and financial stability. However, profitability pressures are evident in the low net profit margin and ROE, indicating challenges in cost management.

Income Statement

Casella Waste exhibits strong revenue growth, with a notable increase from $1.55 billion in 2024 to $1.63 billion in TTM. The gross profit margin is robust at 44.21% for TTM, while the net profit margin stands at a modest 0.79%, reflecting challenges in controlling costs or expenses. EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively stable, indicating operational efficiency. However, the slight decline in net income from 2023 to TTM suggests potential profitability pressure.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is marked by a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07 in TTM, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The equity ratio of 48.26% suggests a solid equity base relative to total assets, while ROE is low at 0.83%, reflecting moderate efficiency in generating returns on equity investments. A potential risk is the high total liabilities compared to stockholders' equity, indicating heavy reliance on liabilities.

Cash Flow

Casella Waste demonstrates healthy cash flow generation, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 25.21 in TTM, illustrating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 7.40, emphasizing sufficient free cash flow. The free cash flow growth rate from 2024 to TTM is 22.11%, indicating positive cash flow trends, though capital expenditures remain significant.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.72B	1.56B	1.26B	1.09B	889.21M	774.58M
Gross Profit	306.24M	295.04M	261.80M	235.62M	203.22M	168.16M
EBITDA	358.11M	321.52M	274.17M	248.29M	208.78M	154.87M
Net Income	11.04M	13.54M	25.40M	53.08M	41.10M	91.11M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.26B	3.33B	2.54B	1.45B	1.28B	1.19B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	217.77M	383.30M	220.91M	71.15M	33.81M	154.34M
Total Debt	1.23B	1.21B	1.12B	658.33M	616.09M	609.18M
Total Liabilities	1.70B	1.78B	1.51B	951.32M	861.12M	831.76M
Stockholders Equity	1.55B	1.55B	1.02B	497.90M	422.46M	362.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	91.02M	78.13M	78.19M	86.35M	59.44M	31.81M
Operating Cash Flow	341.22M	281.36M	233.09M	217.31M	182.74M	139.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-894.03M	-670.61M	-1.01B	-206.92M	-293.15M	-140.03M
Financing Cash Flow	561.13M	551.64M	922.30M	26.95M	-10.12M	150.98M

Casella Waste Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 98.56
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CWST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 98.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 99.75, below the 50-day MA of 106.76, and below the 200-day MA of 110.32, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CWST.

Casella Waste Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CLH	78 Outperform	$12.99B	34.02	14.93%	―	5.49%	-1.66%
RSG	73 Outperform	$73.05B	34.58	18.41%	0.99%	5.13%	13.29%
MEG	70 Outperform	$1.10B	―	-7.61%	―	17.78%	2.57%
WM	69 Neutral	$91.20B	33.59	32.67%	1.39%	14.18%	7.02%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$10.74B	15.86	8.15%	2.00%	2.70%	-15.17%
CWST	58 Neutral	$6.26B	545.13	0.85%	―	20.35%	-45.38%
NVRI	56 Neutral	$911.32M	―	-35.66%	―	-0.83%	-61.90%

Casella Waste Corporate Events

Casella Waste Remarkets $37.5M Bonds at New Rate

On August 28, 2025, Casella Waste Systems announced the pricing of the remarketing of $37.5 million in New York State Environmental Facilities Corporation Solid Waste Disposal Revenue Bonds, originally issued in 2020. The remarketing, set for September 2, 2025, involves a new interest rate of 4.250% per annum and is aimed at qualified institutional buyers, with the bonds guaranteed by Casella’s subsidiaries.

Casella Waste Begins Remarketing $37.5M Bonds

On August 18, 2025, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. announced the commencement of remarketing $37.5 million of New York State Environmental Facilities Corporation Solid Waste Disposal Revenue Bonds, originally issued in 2020. The remarketing, expected to be effective on September 2, 2025, involves a mandatory tender and a new interest rate period, impacting the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

Casella Waste Announces Leadership Transition with New CEO

On August 1, 2025, Casella Waste Systems announced a leadership transition with John W. Casella stepping down as CEO to become Executive Chairman, effective January 1, 2026. Edmond R. Coletta, the current President, will succeed him as CEO and join the Board as a Class II director. This transition marks a significant change in the company’s leadership, with Mr. Casella having been a pivotal figure in the company’s growth over the past 50 years. The appointment of Mr. Coletta, who has been with the company since 2004 and held various leadership roles, is expected to continue the company’s strategic development and commitment to sustainability and innovation.

Casella Waste Completes Remarketing of Revenue Bonds

On August 1, 2025, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. successfully completed the remarketing of $29.0 million in Solid Waste Disposal Revenue Bonds, initially issued in 2015 and 2018, as a single series with a 5% interest rate, maturing in 2035. This financial maneuver, which included redeeming $1.0 million of the bonds, is backed by the company’s subsidiaries and aims to support its operational financing in Maine, while maintaining tax-exempt status contingent on compliance with specific covenants.

Casella Waste Announces Remarketing of Revenue Bonds

On July 31, 2025, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. announced the pricing of its remarketed $29.0 million Finance Authority of Maine Solid Waste Disposal Revenue Bonds. The bonds, originally issued in 2015 and 2018, are set for remarketing on August 1, 2025, with a new interest rate of 5.000% per annum, maturing on July 31, 2035. The remarketing involves redeeming $1.0 million of the bonds with cash on hand and offering the remaining amount to qualified institutional buyers. The bonds are guaranteed by Casella’s subsidiaries and are not obligations of the Issuer or the State of Maine, being payable solely from amounts received from Casella.

Casella Waste Announces Bond Remarketing Initiative

On July 17, 2025, Casella Waste Systems announced the commencement of remarketing $29.0 million of its Solid Waste Disposal Revenue Bonds, originally issued by the Finance Authority of Maine. The remarketing, set for August 1, 2025, involves a mandatory tender and a new interest rate period for the bonds, which are guaranteed by Casella’s subsidiaries. This move reflects Casella’s strategic financial management, impacting its debt structure and offering potential implications for institutional investors.

Casella Waste Elects Directors and Approves Compensation

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 5, 2025, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. elected three Class I directors, approved executive compensation, and ratified the appointment of RSM US LLP as independent auditors for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. The election and approvals reflect the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategies, impacting its leadership structure and financial oversight, which are crucial for maintaining stakeholder confidence and supporting its market position.