Casella Waste (CWST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.08B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 378.44K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 508.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.45
• Revenue Growth: 21.63%
• EPS Growth: -30.27%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,100
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 86
• Industry: Waste Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.19
• Shares Outstanding: 62,475,240
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 421,214
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 378,436
• PEG Ratio: 2.68
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 47.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.79
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.77
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.27
• 1Y Price Target: $130.75
• Price Target Upside: 17.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $128.00 ▲(14.71%Upside)

Casella Waste's strong financial performance and promising earnings call drive its positive outlook, despite challenges in valuation due to an excessively high P/E ratio. Technical indicators suggest neutral momentum, but the company's strategic M&A activities and operational efficiency position it well for future growth.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Casella's revenue and adjusted EBITDA surpassed consensus estimates, and adjusted EPS significantly exceeded expectations.

Market Position

Casella's status as a 100% domestic, pure-play solid waste and recycling company is particularly appealing in the current market environment.

Operational Efficiency

The switch to automated trucks is anticipated to bring approximately $5 million in EBITDA benefits due to increased efficiency.

Negative Factors

Growth Concerns

M&A accounts for a significant portion of growth, implying only 2% organic growth in the solid waste business.

Market Challenges

First-quarter volumes were negatively affected by soft cyclical roll-off volumes and challenging winter weather conditions.

Casella Waste Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) is an integrated solid waste services company that operates predominantly in the Northeastern United States. The company provides a range of waste management services, including collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services. Casella Waste serves both residential, commercial, municipal, and industrial customers, focusing on sustainable waste management practices and resource renewal.

How the Company Makes Money

Casella Waste Systems primarily generates revenue through its comprehensive waste management services. The key revenue streams include collection services, where the company charges fees for picking up waste and recyclables from residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Another significant revenue stream is disposal, which involves tipping fees collected at landfills and transfer stations owned or operated by Casella. Additionally, the company earns from recycling services by processing and selling recyclable materials. Partnerships with municipalities and businesses, along with long-term contracts, contribute to stable revenue generation, while Casella's focus on sustainability and resource management enhances its competitive advantage in the waste services sector.

Casella Waste Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Casella Waste shows strong revenue growth and cash flow generation, supported by a stable balance sheet with low leverage. The company is financially stable with a solid equity base, though profitability pressures are evident in the low net profit margin and ROE. The company maintains strong operational efficiency and cash flow generation, positioning it well for future growth, albeit with some cost management challenges.

Income Statement

Casella Waste exhibits strong revenue growth, with a notable increase from $1.55 billion in 2024 to $1.63 billion in TTM. The gross profit margin is robust at 44.21% for TTM, while the net profit margin stands at a modest 0.79%, reflecting challenges in controlling costs or expenses. EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively stable, indicating operational efficiency. However, the slight decline in net income from 2023 to TTM suggests potential profitability pressure.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is marked by a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07 in TTM, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The equity ratio of 48.26% suggests a solid equity base relative to total assets, while ROE is low at 0.83%, reflecting moderate efficiency in generating returns on equity investments. A potential risk is the high total liabilities compared to stockholders' equity, indicating heavy reliance on liabilities.

Cash Flow

Casella Waste demonstrates healthy cash flow generation, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 25.21 in TTM, illustrating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 7.40, emphasizing sufficient free cash flow. The free cash flow growth rate from 2024 to TTM is 22.11%, indicating positive cash flow trends, though capital expenditures remain significant.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.63B	1.56B	1.26B	1.09B	889.21M	774.58M
Gross Profit	722.33M	529.95M	261.80M	361.97M	306.81M	258.94M
EBITDA	337.60M	318.37M	274.17M	248.29M	208.78M	151.46M
Net Income	12.84M	13.54M	25.40M	53.08M	41.10M	91.11M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.21B	3.23B	2.54B	1.45B	1.28B	1.19B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	267.71M	383.30M	220.91M	71.15M	33.81M	154.34M
Total Debt	104.33M	1.21B	1.12B	658.33M	616.09M	609.18M
Total Liabilities	1.66B	1.68B	1.51B	951.32M	861.12M	831.76M
Stockholders Equity	1.55B	1.55T	1.02B	497.90M	422.46M	362.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	95.07M	77.85M	78.19M	86.35M	59.44M	31.81M
Operating Cash Flow	323.80M	281.36M	233.09M	217.31M	182.74M	139.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-799.37M	-670.61M	-1.01B	-206.92M	-293.15M	-140.03M
Financing Cash Flow	556.01M	551.64M	922.30M	26.95M	-10.12M	150.98M

Casella Waste Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 111.59
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CWST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 111.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 116.27, below the 50-day MA of 116.11, and above the 200-day MA of 109.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.12 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CWST.

Casella Waste Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CLH	77 Outperform	$12.34B	31.91	16.02%	―	8.52%	4.51%
WM	72 Outperform	$89.89B	33.69	34.01%	1.48%	10.77%	8.38%
CWST	72 Outperform	$7.08B	508.85	1.00%	―	21.63%	-30.27%
RSG	70 Outperform	$76.46B	36.89	18.54%	0.98%	6.13%	16.45%
MEG	68 Neutral	$766.44M	―	-14.32%	―	10.92%	-57.13%
Sector *	64 Neutral	kr64.07B	12.51	1.54%	9.83%	0.04%	-3.90%
NVRI	60 Neutral	$705.96M	―	-26.25%	―	5.42%	-29.97%

Casella Waste Corporate Events

Casella Waste Elects Directors and Approves Compensation

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 5, 2025, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. elected three Class I directors, approved executive compensation, and ratified the appointment of RSM US LLP as independent auditors for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. The election and approvals reflect the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategies, impacting its leadership structure and financial oversight, which are crucial for maintaining stakeholder confidence and supporting its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (CWST) stock is a Buy with a $135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Casella Waste stock, see the CWST Stock Forecast page.