Casella Waste Systems (CWST)
NASDAQ:CWST
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Casella Waste
(NASDAQ:CWST)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$89.00
▲(2.32% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/21/26
The score is held back most by very weak technicals (price well below key moving averages with bearish momentum) and an extremely high P/E. Financial performance is mixed—strong revenue and cash flow but pressured profitability and some recent data-quality flags—while the latest earnings call is a support, with solid 2026 growth guidance and a constructive outlook despite commodity, integration, and capex headwinds.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Operating cash flow has trended up and free cash flow is consistently positive with notable 2025 growth. Cash conversion (~0.8–1.2 OCF/net income) indicates durable internal funding capacity to support capex, acquisitions and debt service across the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Compressed profitability and data inconsistencies
Net margins and operating profitability have trended down despite revenue growth, and 2025 reporting includes anomalous/missing gross profit and balance-sheet inputs. This reduces confidence in near-term margin visibility and makes sustainable returns on capital harder to assess.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Operating cash flow has trended up and free cash flow is consistently positive with notable 2025 growth. Cash conversion (~0.8–1.2 OCF/net income) indicates durable internal funding capacity to support capex, acquisitions and debt service across the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Casella Waste (CWST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.52B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)896.29K
Price to Earnings (P/E)789.7
Beta (1Y)0.40
Revenue Growth20.54%
EPS Growth106.35%
CountryUS
Employees5,100
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.30
Shares Outstanding62,526,566
10 Day Avg. Volume902,043
30 Day Avg. Volume896,294
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-16.51
Price to Book (P/B)3.96
Price to Sales (P/S)3.38
P/FCF Ratio73.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit20.50
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.91
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$114.00Price Target Upside31.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)1.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.99B
Casella Waste Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Casella Waste Systems, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a vertically integrated solid waste services company in the northeastern United States. It offers resource management services primarily in the areas of solid waste collectio...
How the Company Makes Money
Casella makes money by charging fees for a set of integrated waste and recycling services and by monetizing the materials and environmental assets it manages.
Key revenue streams typically include:
1) Solid waste collection (hauling) services: Ca...
Casella Waste Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a constructive outlook: strong fiscal 2025 growth in revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow, margin expansion in the base business, a robust M&A pipeline and ample liquidity. Near-term headwinds include recycling commodity weakness, certain third-party volume declines, one-time closure costs and short-term integration/G&A investment that dilute margins. Management communicated confidence in operational improvements, automation savings (> $5M in 2026), permit/expansion progress and multi-year G&A leverage benefits expected to start in 2027.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Growth Across Key Financial Metrics
Fiscal 2025 revenues +18% year-over-year, Adjusted EBITDA +17% year-over-year, and adjusted free cash flow +14% year-over-year; marks fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth across these three metrics.
Negative Updates
Commodity Price Pressure in Recycling
Average recycled commodity revenue per ton down ~27% year-over-year; recycled commodity prices trading roughly 20% below 10-year averages, pressuring recycling/processing revenue despite contract protections.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Growth Across Key Financial Metrics
Fiscal 2025 revenues +18% year-over-year, Adjusted EBITDA +17% year-over-year, and adjusted free cash flow +14% year-over-year; marks fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth across these three metrics.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company provided 2026 financial guidance of revenue $1.97–$1.99 billion (≈8% growth at the midpoint), adjusted EBITDA $455–$465 million (≈9% growth at the midpoint) and adjusted free cash flow $195–$205 million (≈11% growth at the midpoint); the plan assumes ~ $60 million of revenue from acquisitions to date (≈3% of growth, including Mountain State Waste closed Jan 1) and ~4.5% organic growth at the midpoint, with solid waste pricing planned at ~5% and volumes roughly flat (±); management said the bridge from 2025 to guidance includes $10–$15 million from acquisitions and ≈$25 million (≈6%) of base organic EBITDA growth, the guidance implies approximately flat margins to +40 basis points of margin improvement (largely base business), assumes a stable economic environment and no further acquisitions, and reflects expected capital expenditures of about $260 million (including ≈$65 million of upfront acquisition spend and a small remaining McKean rail investment).Casella Waste Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.84B | 1.56B | 1.26B | 1.09B | 889.21M |
| Gross Profit | 313.40M | 295.04M | 261.80M | 235.62M | 203.22M |
| EBITDA | 393.60M | 321.52M | 274.17M | 248.29M | 208.78M |
| Net Income | 7.87M | 13.54M | 25.40M | 53.08M | 41.10M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.41B | 3.33B | 2.54B | 1.45B | 1.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 123.77M | 383.30M | 220.91M | 71.15M | 33.81M |
| Total Debt | 1.24B | 1.21B | 1.12B | 665.33M | 616.09M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.84B | 1.78B | 1.51B | 951.32M | 861.12M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.57B | 1.55B | 1.02B | 497.90M | 422.46M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 84.70M | 78.13M | 78.19M | 86.35M | 59.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 329.78M | 281.36M | 233.09M | 217.31M | 182.74M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -469.15M | -670.61M | -1.01B | -206.92M | -293.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -27.07M | 551.64M | 922.30M | 26.95M | -10.12M |
Casella Waste Technical Analysis
Neutral
86.98
Price Trends
91.85
Negative
95.48
Negative
96.46
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.39
Negative
52.26
Neutral
88.23
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CWST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 86.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 82.70, below the 50-day MA of 91.85, and below the 200-day MA of 96.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.23 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CWST.
Casella Waste Risk Analysis
Casella Waste disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Casella Waste reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Casella Waste Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $15.99B | 31.90 | 14.47% | ― | 2.85% | -6.27% | |
74 Outperform | $781.86M | -1,034.44 | -0.17% | ― | 22.77% | 44.73% | |
72 Outperform | $66.29B | 30.90 | 18.00% | 1.11% | 4.33% | 7.59% | |
68 Neutral | $92.55B | 32.67 | 28.99% | 1.50% | 15.88% | -3.11% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | $5.52B | 789.67 | 0.50% | ― | 20.54% | 106.35% | |
45 Neutral | $1.62B | -8.63 | -48.78% | ― | -2.91% | -67.18% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CWST
Casella Waste
86.98
-30.25
-25.80%
CLH
Clean Harbors
302.23
99.81
49.31%
NVRI
Enviri
19.56
13.85
242.56%
RSG
Republic Services
214.66
-28.23
-11.62%
WM
Waste Management
229.45
0.62
0.27%
MEG
Montrose Environmental Group
21.73
7.58
53.57%
Casella Waste Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Casella Waste Announces COO Resignation and Leadership Transition
Neutral
Mar 10, 2026
On March 6, 2026, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. disclosed that Sean Steves decided to resign as Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Solid Waste Operations, effective March 20, 2026, to pursue opportunities outside the waste and recy...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.