Casella Waste (CWST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.41B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 583.13K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 426.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.24
• Revenue Growth: 20.54%
• EPS Growth: 106.35%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,100
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Waste Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.42
• Shares Outstanding: 62,505,318
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 517,370
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 583,129
• PEG Ratio: -9.31
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.06
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.05
• P/FCF Ratio: 80.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 23.53
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.94
• 1Y Price Target: $114.33
• Price Target Upside: 13.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $115.00 ▲(14.00% Upside)

Casella Waste's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call results and positive technical indicators, despite challenges in financial performance and valuation concerns. The optimistic outlook and operational efficiency improvements are significant positives, but high valuation metrics and profitability issues temper the overall score.

Positive Factors

Diverse, recurring revenue streams

Casella's business spans collection, landfill tipping, recycling sales and long-term municipal/commercial contracts, creating durable, recurring cash flows. This diversification reduces single-market exposure and supports predictable revenue as collection and disposal demand remains steady over economic cycles.

Material improvement in leverage

Significantly reduced leverage enhances financial flexibility for capex, tuck-in acquisitions, and resilience to cyclical downturns. Lower debt servicing costs free operating cash flow for reinvestment, supporting long-term growth initiatives and reducing refinancing risk over the next several quarters.

Proven M&A program boosting revenue

A repeatable acquisition pipeline has meaningfully increased scale and revenue, contributing to record quarterly results. Successful roll-ups support faster geographic expansion and potential margin synergies, helping sustain above-organic revenue growth as acquisitions are integrated over time.

Negative Factors

Significant margin compression

A sharp drop in gross margins and near-zero net margins materially reduces profitability resilience. Persistently compressed margins constrain the firm's ability to fund investments, acquisitions, or weather pricing pressure, increasing sensitivity to cost inflation and commodity swings over the medium term.

Declining free cash flow generation

Weaker FCF limits internal funding for capex, integration costs, and acquisition funding without raising external capital. Even with good OCF conversion to net income, falling FCF and a low FCF-to-income ratio reduce financial optionality and heighten reliance on improved margins or external financing.

Commodity exposure and integration/G&A drag

Exposure to recycling commodity prices and elevated G&A from technology and integration investments create structural earnings volatility. Integration-related margin headwinds and higher fixed costs can persist through multiple quarters, limiting margin recovery unless commodity markets and integration synergies improve.

Casella Waste Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Casella Waste Systems, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a vertically integrated solid waste services company in the northeastern United States. It offers resource management services primarily in the areas of solid waste collection and disposal, transfer, recycling, and organics services to residential, commercial, municipal, institutional, and industrial customers. The company provides a range of non-hazardous solid waste services, including collections, transfer stations, and disposal facilities. It also markets recyclable metals, aluminum, plastics, and paper and corrugated cardboard that are processed at its facilities, as well as recyclables purchased from third parties. In addition, the company is involved in commodity brokerage operations. As of January 31, 2022, it owned and/or operated 50 solid waste collection operations, 65 transfer stations, 23 recycling facilities, 8 Subtitle D landfills, 3 landfill gas-to-energy facilities, and 1 landfill permitted to accept construction and demolition materials. Casella Waste Systems, Inc. was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Rutland, Vermont.

How the Company Makes Money

Casella Waste generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from its waste collection, recycling, and disposal operations. The company charges fees for its collection services based on the volume and type of waste generated by its customers, which include residential households, commercial businesses, and industrial clients. Additionally, revenue is derived from tipping fees charged at its landfills for waste disposal, as well as from the sale of recyclable materials processed at its recycling facilities. The company also benefits from long-term contracts with municipalities and businesses, providing a stable revenue base. Strategic partnerships with local governments and businesses enhance its market presence and contribute to earnings, alongside investments in technology and infrastructure aimed at improving operational efficiency and sustainability.

Casella Waste Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Casella Waste demonstrates steady revenue growth and improved leverage, but faces challenges in profitability and cash flow generation. The company needs to focus on enhancing profit margins and cash flow efficiency to strengthen its financial position further.

Income Statement

Casella Waste has shown consistent revenue growth, with a TTM growth rate of 4.28%. However, margins have been under pressure, with a declining gross profit margin from 33.36% in 2022 to 17.39% in TTM. The net profit margin is low at 0.85% TTM, indicating challenges in converting revenue into profit. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a stable EBITDA margin of 21.60% TTM, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly, from 1.68 in 2020 to 0.78 TTM, indicating better leverage management. However, the return on equity has decreased to 0.0039% TTM, suggesting limited returns on shareholder investments. The equity ratio remains stable, reflecting a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has declined by 13.97% TTM, raising concerns about cash generation. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.16 TTM, indicating good cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.23 TTM, which is moderate but shows room for improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.80B	1.56B	1.26B	1.09B	889.21M	774.58M
Gross Profit	312.16M	295.04M	261.80M	235.62M	203.22M	168.16M
EBITDA	387.82M	321.52M	274.17M	248.29M	208.78M	154.87M
Net Income	15.26M	13.54M	25.40M	53.08M	41.10M	91.11M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.29B	3.33B	2.54B	1.45B	1.28B	1.19B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	192.65M	383.30M	220.91M	71.15M	33.81M	154.34M
Total Debt	1.23B	1.21B	1.12B	665.33M	616.09M	617.72M
Total Liabilities	1.72B	1.78B	1.51B	951.32M	861.12M	831.76M
Stockholders Equity	1.57B	1.55B	1.02B	497.90M	422.46M	362.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	78.31M	78.13M	78.19M	86.35M	59.44M	31.81M
Operating Cash Flow	342.97M	281.36M	233.09M	217.31M	182.74M	139.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-690.70M	-670.61M	-1.01B	-206.92M	-293.15M	-140.03M
Financing Cash Flow	21.41M	551.64M	922.30M	26.95M	-10.12M	150.98M

Casella Waste Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 100.88
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CWST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 100.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 102.87, above the 50-day MA of 99.63, and below the 200-day MA of 102.45, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CWST.

Casella Waste Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CLH	78 Outperform	$13.89B	36.26	14.64%	―	2.85%	-6.27%
WM	74 Outperform	$89.53B	33.17	29.69%	1.50%	15.88%	-3.11%
RSG	72 Outperform	$66.58B	31.97	18.24%	1.11%	4.33%	7.59%
CWST	69 Neutral	$6.41B	426.80	0.98%	―	20.54%	106.35%
MEG	68 Neutral	$787.32M	-24.55	-4.17%	―	22.77%	44.73%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
NVRI	56 Neutral	$1.53B	-9.30	-38.53%	―	-2.91%	-67.18%