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Casella Waste
(NASDAQ:CWST)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$103.00
▲(26.82% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/01/26
The score is driven by solid cash generation and a positive earnings outlook (raised 2026 guidance), supported by an upward technical trend (price above major moving averages). Offsetting these strengths are sharply compressed GAAP profitability/returns and a very elevated P/E, which materially increases valuation risk.
Positive Factors
Cash generation strength
Consistent and improving operating cash flow and rising free cash flow provide durable internal funding for fleet refresh, tuck‑in M&A and permitting capex. Strong cash conversion reduces reliance on external financing and supports sustained investment in routes and facilities.
Negative Factors
Compressed GAAP profitability
Sharp compression in reported profitability and returns signals enduring pressure from depreciation, interest, integration costs or other items that can erode GAAP earnings. Sustained low net income limits retained earnings growth and constrains ROE recovery absent structural margin improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation strength
Consistent and improving operating cash flow and rising free cash flow provide durable internal funding for fleet refresh, tuck‑in M&A and permitting capex. Strong cash conversion reduces reliance on external financing and supports sustained investment in routes and facilities.
Read all positive factors
Casella Waste Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Shows profit generated by each business line (collection, disposal, transfer, recycling, etc.), revealing where the company earns its money and which parts are most efficient. Helps investors spot margin drivers, operational strengths, and segments that may need cost control or face margin pressure from labor, fuel, or regulation.
Shows profit generated by each business line (collection, disposal, transfer, recycling, etc.), revealing where the company earns its money and which parts are most efficient. Helps investors spot margin drivers, operational strengths, and segments that may need cost control or face margin pressure from labor, fuel, or regulation.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCasella Waste (CWST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.07B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)688.26K
Price to Earnings (P/E)837.6
Beta (1Y)0.27
Revenue Growth14.92%
EPS Growth-48.77%
CountryUS
Employees5,100
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares Outstanding62,621,742
10 Day Avg. Volume742,169
30 Day Avg. Volume688,261
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-17.07
Price to Book (P/B)3.96
Price to Sales (P/S)3.38
P/FCF Ratio73.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.46
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.36
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$117.83Price Target Upside45.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)1.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.07B
Casella Waste Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Casella Waste Systems, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, operates as a vertically integrated solid waste management firm across the northeastern United States. The company specializes in comprehensive waste and resource management solutions, enco...
How the Company Makes Money
Casella primarily makes money by charging customers and municipalities for end-to-end waste and recycling services across an integrated network of collection routes and owned/controlled facilities. Key revenue streams include: (1) Collection servi...
Casella Waste Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive operational and financial performance: strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, margin expansion in the base business, effective fuel recovery and cost programs, active M&A adding scale, safety and technology investments, and constructive permitting and rail-transfer progress. Headwinds included transient volume softness (weather-driven), meaningful pressure in recycled commodity pricing (though largely contract-mitigated), initial margin dilution from acquisitions and some near-term uncertainty around RNG monetization and base-business guidance updates. Overall, the company positioned itself as executing well operationally while remaining cautious about some cyclical and integration-related risks.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $457.3M in Q1 2026, up 9.6% year-over-year (+$40.2M), driven by acquisitions ($23.9M) and same-store growth ($16.2M, 3.9%). Company raised 2026 revenue guidance to $2.06B–$2.08B (+$90M).
Negative Updates
Volume Softness and Weather Impact
Total solid waste volume down 2.5% YoY (collection volume down 2.1%), with roll-off volumes notably weaker (roll-off down ~3%+). Management attributed part of the softness to challenging winter weather.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $457.3M in Q1 2026, up 9.6% year-over-year (+$40.2M), driven by acquisitions ($23.9M) and same-store growth ($16.2M, 3.9%). Company raised 2026 revenue guidance to $2.06B–$2.08B (+$90M).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Casella raised 2026 guidance to revenue of $2.06–2.08 billion (up ~$90M), adjusted EBITDA of $473–483 million (up ~$18M) and adjusted free cash flow of $200–210 million (up ~$5M), which implies roughly 14% adjusted FCF growth at the midpoint and assumes an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~20%; the revision reflects ~ $120M of new annualized revenue for nine months from recent acquisitions (four closed YTD, including Star Waste ~ $100M). Quarterly context: Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $97.1M (up 12.3% YoY) with a 21.2% adjusted EBITDA margin (base business margin expansion of 65 bps, overall +50 bps). Balance sheet and liquidity assumptions: March 31 debt $1.16B, cash $127M, consolidated net leverage 2.29x (pro forma ~2.75x after April 1 deals) and ~ $500M available liquidity to fund tuck‑ins; guidance also reflects operating cost savings targets ($5M in 2026 and another $10M over the next two years) and $15M of targeted G&A savings over three years (first phase delivering in H2 2026), with typical FCF conversion from EBITDA and incremental net interest impact assumed for deal financing.Casella Waste Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
48
Neutral
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.88B | 1.84B | 1.56B | 1.26B | 1.09B | 889.21M |
| Gross Profit | 397.45M | 313.40M | 295.04M | 261.80M | 235.62M | 203.22M |
| EBITDA | 406.01M | 393.60M | 321.52M | 274.17M | 248.29M | 208.78M |
| Net Income | 7.14M | 7.87M | 13.54M | 25.40M | 53.08M | 41.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.27B | 3.41B | 3.33B | 2.54B | 1.45B | 1.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 126.90M | 123.77M | 383.30M | 220.91M | 71.15M | 33.81M |
| Total Debt | 1.24B | 1.24B | 1.21B | 1.12B | 665.33M | 616.09M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.70B | 1.84B | 1.78B | 1.51B | 951.32M | 861.12M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.57B | 1.57B | 1.55B | 1.02B | 497.90M | 422.46M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 102.33M | 84.70M | 78.13M | 78.19M | 86.35M | 59.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 341.91M | 329.78M | 281.36M | 233.09M | 217.31M | 182.74M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -454.51M | -469.15M | -670.61M | -1.01B | -206.92M | -293.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -30.39M | -27.07M | 551.64M | 922.30M | 26.95M | -10.12M |
Casella Waste Technical Analysis
Positive
81.22
Price Trends
88.09
Positive
87.23
Positive
91.53
Positive
Market Momentum
3.00
Negative
60.53
Neutral
63.73
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CWST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 81.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 92.30, below the 50-day MA of 88.09, and below the 200-day MA of 91.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CWST.
Casella Waste Risk Analysis
Casella Waste disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Casella Waste reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Casella Waste Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $67.28B | 31.35 | 18.12% | 1.11% | 3.19% | 5.11% | |
69 Neutral | $15.95B | 41.01 | 14.37% | ― | 1.90% | 2.13% | |
67 Neutral | $93.94B | 33.43 | 28.85% | 1.50% | 10.87% | 4.11% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $6.07B | 837.59 | 0.46% | ― | 14.92% | -48.77% | |
50 Neutral | $644.14M | -33.33 | 2.99% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
CWST
Casella Waste
96.82
-13.77
-12.45%
CLH
Clean Harbors
304.13
71.25
30.60%
NVRI
Enviri Corporation
23.28
7.11
43.97%
RSG
Republic Services
219.20
-19.26
-8.08%
WM
Waste Management
233.33
10.89
4.89%
Casella Waste Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Casella Waste Appoints Damian Ribar as New COO
Positive
Jul 1, 2026
On June 26, 2026, Casella Waste Systems’ board appointed industry veteran Damian A. Ribar as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, with his employment expected to begin on July 20, 2026. Ribar brings extensive operating and f...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Casella Waste Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 4, 2026, Casella Waste Systems shareholders elected four Class II directors—Michael L. Battles, Edmond R. Coletta, Joseph G. Doody, and Emily Nagle Green—to terms expiring at the ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Casella Waste Remarkets Tax-Exempt New York Revenue Bonds
Positive
Jun 1, 2026
On June 1, 2026, Casella Waste Systems closed the remarketing of $15.0 million of New York State Environmental Facilities Corporation Solid Waste Disposal Revenue Bonds, originally issued in 2014 and drawn in 2016, with a final maturity of Decembe...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Casella Waste Remarkets New York Solid Waste Revenue Bonds
Neutral
May 27, 2026
On May 27, 2026, Casella Waste Systems announced it had priced the remarketing of $15 million of New York State Environmental Facilities Corporation Solid Waste Disposal Revenue Bonds, originally issued under a 2014 indenture and drawn in 2016 wit...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Casella Waste Launches Remarketing of Tax-Exempt Revenue Bonds
Neutral
May 11, 2026
On May 11, 2026, Casella Waste Systems announced it had begun remarketing $15 million of New York State Environmental Facilities Corporation Solid Waste Disposal Revenue Bonds, originally issued under a 2014 indenture and drawn in 2016, with final...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Casella Waste Expands Equipment Leasing and Financing Capacity
Positive
Apr 22, 2026
On April 20, 2026, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. and several subsidiaries entered into a new master lease arrangement with Huntington National Bank to lease or finance motor vehicles and other equipment on an ongoing, uncommitted basis, supported by...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.