Casella Waste (CWST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.95B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 870.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 789.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.31
• Revenue Growth: 20.54%
• EPS Growth: 106.35%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,100
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Waste Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.30
• Shares Outstanding: 62,526,566
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 868,946
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 870,476
• PEG Ratio: -16.51
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.96
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.38
• P/FCF Ratio: 73.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.21
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.26
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 19.12
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.84
• 1Y Price Target: $114.70
• Price Target Upside: 47.60% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.34
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.98B

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $79.00 ▲(1.66% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/21/26

The score is held back most by very weak technicals (price well below key moving averages with bearish momentum) and an extremely high P/E. Financial performance is mixed—strong revenue and cash flow but pressured profitability and some recent data-quality flags—while the latest earnings call is a support, with solid 2026 growth guidance and a constructive outlook despite commodity, integration, and capex headwinds.

Positive Factors

Cash Generation

Casella has demonstrated durable operating cash flow improvement and consistently positive free cash flow, with strong FCF growth in 2025. This cash generation supports ongoing capex, rail and automation investments, and funds an active M&A strategy without relying solely on new debt issuance.

Vertical Integration & Margin Leverage

Ownership of landfills, transfer stations and processing facilities enables internalization of disposal tons, improving per-ton economics and pricing power. Structural margin gains from higher landfill volumes and operational efficiencies are durable benefits that enhance cash conversion as route density and disposal capture increase.

M&A-Driven Scale

A proven, active M&A program is expanding route density and geographic scale, which drives long-term unit-cost improvements, cross-sell and disposal capture. The large pipeline and recent accretive deals provide a durable growth lever beyond organic pricing and volume.

Negative Factors

Profitability & Data Quality

Net and operating margins have fallen meaningfully despite top-line growth, and missing or inconsistent 2025 gross-profit and balance-sheet inputs impair visibility into returns. Persistent margin compression or unclear margin trends would limit long-term return on capital and weaken reinvestment economics.

Capital Intensity

Sustained, elevated capex needs for fleet, landfill expansions, rail upgrades and acquisition-related upfront spend increase reinvestment requirements. High structural capex can constrain free cash flow conversion and lengthen payback periods, pressuring flexibility for non-organic growth or balance-sheet repair.

Recycling Commodity & Volume Pressure

Material weakness in commodity prices materially reduces recycling revenue and can depress segment margins even with contract protections. Coupled with third-party disposal and roll-off volume declines in parts of the portfolio, this structural exposure creates revenue and margin variability over the medium term.

Casella Waste Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Casella Waste Systems, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a vertically integrated solid waste services company in the northeastern United States. It offers resource management services primarily in the areas of solid waste collection and disposal, transfer, recycling, and organics services to residential, commercial, municipal, institutional, and industrial customers. The company provides a range of non-hazardous solid waste services, including collections, transfer stations, and disposal facilities. It also markets recyclable metals, aluminum, plastics, and paper and corrugated cardboard that are processed at its facilities, as well as recyclables purchased from third parties. In addition, the company is involved in commodity brokerage operations. As of January 31, 2022, it owned and/or operated 50 solid waste collection operations, 65 transfer stations, 23 recycling facilities, 8 Subtitle D landfills, 3 landfill gas-to-energy facilities, and 1 landfill permitted to accept construction and demolition materials. Casella Waste Systems, Inc. was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Rutland, Vermont.

How the Company Makes Money

Casella makes money by charging fees for a set of integrated waste and recycling services and by monetizing the materials and environmental assets it manages. Key revenue streams typically include: 1) Solid waste collection (hauling) services: Casella earns recurring service revenue by collecting waste from residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers under contractual arrangements (including municipal franchise/contract and private commercial service). Pricing is generally based on service frequency, container size, volume/weight, and contract terms, often with fuel or cost-recovery adjustments. 2) Disposal (landfill) and transfer/transport: Casella generates revenue by charging tipping fees when waste is delivered to its landfills or when waste is processed through its transfer stations. Owned disposal capacity can capture margin not only from Casella-collected waste but also from third-party haulers who pay to dispose at Casella facilities. Transfer operations also support long-haul transport economics by consolidating waste for shipment to final disposal. 3) Recycling and resource solutions: The company earns revenue from recycling collection and processing services and, where applicable, from selling recovered commodities (e.g., paper, metals, plastics) into end markets. Revenue and profitability in this area can be influenced by commodity price movements and contract structures (such as revenue-sharing or pass-through mechanisms). Casella also provides related services such as organics/food waste programs and other resource management offerings where customers pay service fees. 4) Other related fees and services: Casella may earn additional revenue from special waste handling, roll-off containers, construction and demolition-related services, and other ancillary environmental and logistics services tied to its waste network. Important factors that contribute to earnings include: (a) route density and scale in collection operations, which can lower per-stop costs; (b) ownership of disposal and processing infrastructure (landfills, transfer stations, recycling facilities), enabling vertical integration and internalization of disposal costs; (c) long-term municipal and commercial contracts that support recurring revenue; and (d) acquisition-driven expansion, where acquired hauling routes and facilities are integrated into Casella’s network. Specific named partnerships: null.

Casella Waste Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth and operating/free cash flow are solid (cash flow is the clearest strength), but profitability has compressed materially in recent periods. In addition, anomalies/inconsistencies in 2025 gross profit and balance sheet fields reduce confidence in latest-period margin/leverage signals.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown consistently from 2020 to 2025, with especially strong growth in 2025 versus 2024. However, profitability has weakened materially: net margin declined steadily from 2020 levels to very low levels in 2024 and 2025, and operating profitability (as reflected in EBIT/EBITDA trends) has been choppy despite revenue growth. 2025 also shows missing/zero gross profit and margin fields, which reduces confidence in the quality of the margin picture for that year.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved versus the more debt-heavy 2020–2023 period (debt-to-equity moved down sharply in 2024). That said, 2025 balance sheet inputs look inconsistent (equity is extraordinarily high relative to assets and debt), which makes leverage and returns hard to interpret for the latest period. Historically, returns on equity have fallen meaningfully from 2020–2022 to low levels in 2023–2024, pointing to weaker profitability relative to the capital base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength: operating cash flow has trended up over time and remained solid in 2024–2025, and free cash flow is consistently positive with strong growth reported in 2025. A key watch-out is conversion versus earnings—free cash flow is only a fraction of net income in each year shown, implying heavier reinvestment and/or working-capital needs. Operating cash flow relative to net income is around ~0.8–1.2 across years, indicating generally reasonable (but not consistently strong) cash earnings quality.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.84B	1.56B	1.26B	1.09B	889.21M
Gross Profit	313.40M	295.04M	261.80M	235.62M	203.22M
EBITDA	393.60M	321.52M	274.17M	248.29M	208.78M
Net Income	7.87M	13.54M	25.40M	53.08M	41.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.41B	3.33B	2.54B	1.45B	1.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	123.77M	383.30M	220.91M	71.15M	33.81M
Total Debt	1.24B	1.21B	1.12B	665.33M	616.09M
Total Liabilities	1.84B	1.78B	1.51B	951.32M	861.12M
Stockholders Equity	1.57B	1.55B	1.02B	497.90M	422.46M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	84.70M	78.13M	78.19M	86.35M	59.44M
Operating Cash Flow	329.78M	281.36M	233.09M	217.31M	182.74M
Investing Cash Flow	-469.15M	-670.61M	-1.01B	-206.92M	-293.15M
Financing Cash Flow	-27.07M	551.64M	922.30M	26.95M	-10.12M

Casella Waste Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 77.71
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CWST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 77.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 89.48, below the 50-day MA of 97.61, and below the 200-day MA of 98.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.73 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.48 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CWST.

Casella Waste Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CLH	74 Outperform	$15.14B	31.90	14.47%	―	2.85%	-6.27%
MEG	74 Outperform	$812.44M	-1,034.44	-0.17%	―	22.77%	44.73%
WM	73 Outperform	$91.77B	32.67	28.99%	1.50%	15.88%	-3.11%
RSG	72 Outperform	$66.93B	30.90	18.00%	1.11%	4.33%	7.59%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
CWST	54 Neutral	$4.95B	789.67	0.50%	―	20.54%	106.35%
NVRI	45 Neutral	$1.50B	-8.63	-38.53%	―	-2.91%	-67.18%

Casella Waste Corporate Events

Casella Waste Announces COO Resignation and Leadership Transition

On March 6, 2026, Casella Waste Systems, Inc. disclosed that Sean Steves decided to resign as Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Solid Waste Operations, effective March 20, 2026, to pursue opportunities outside the waste and recycling sector. The company emphasized that his departure was not due to any disagreement over operations, policies, or practices, and it has begun a formal process to identify his successor, signaling an orderly leadership transition in its core solid waste business.

The announced leadership change in a key operating role may have operational and strategic implications as Casella Waste navigates continuity in its solid waste segment. By clarifying that Steves’s resignation was amicable and unrelated to disputes, the company aims to reassure investors and other stakeholders about stability while it searches for a new chief operating officer.

The most recent analyst rating on (CWST) stock is a Buy with a $130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Casella Waste stock, see the CWST Stock Forecast page.