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Ameren
(NYSE:AEE)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$115.00
â–²(1.07% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
The score is driven mainly by stable regulated-utility profitability but constrained by persistent negative free cash flow and elevated leverage, which increase reliance on external financing. Earnings-call signals are constructive (reaffirmed guidance and long-run growth targets backed by a sizable capital pipeline), but near-term technical momentum is weak, and valuation is only moderately supportive via a reasonable P/E and ~2.7% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Regulated utility business model
Ameren’s core earnings derive from regulated electric, gas and transmission operations where costs and returns are recovered via rates. That regulatory framework provides durable cash-flow visibility, predictable allowed returns on capital investment and structural insulation from pure merchant risk.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative free cash flow
Despite rising operating cash, Ameren’s heavy capital spending yields negative free cash flow across periods, meaning internal cash doesn't fund growth. That structural cash deficit increases dependence on external financing and heightens execution and liquidity sensitivity over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated utility business model
Ameren’s core earnings derive from regulated electric, gas and transmission operations where costs and returns are recovered via rates. That regulatory framework provides durable cash-flow visibility, predictable allowed returns on capital investment and structural insulation from pure merchant risk.
Read all positive factors
Ameren Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus.
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmeren (AEE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$30.13B
Dividend Yield2.68%
Average Volume (3M)1.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.0
Beta (1Y)0.17
Revenue Growth3.76%
EPS Growth25.15%
CountryUS
Employees8,913
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.73
Shares Outstanding276,843,260
10 Day Avg. Volume1,390,661
30 Day Avg. Volume1,712,994
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.87
Price to Book (P/B)2.02
Price to Sales (P/S)3.07
P/FCF Ratio-32.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$120.30Price Target Upside5.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)5.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.15B
Ameren Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating across the United States, Ameren Corporation functions as a utility holding company. The enterprise organizes its operations into four primary divisions: Ameren Missouri, Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution, Ameren Illinois Natural Gas...
How the Company Makes Money
Ameren makes most of its money through regulated utility operations where revenues and earnings are largely determined by approved rates and allowed returns on invested capital (rate base). The company’s key revenue streams are: (1) Regulated elec...
Ameren Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution and material near-term progress: Q1 EPS grew ~19.6% year-over-year, management reaffirmed full-year guidance, sizable infrastructure and generation projects are advancing, and a robust pipeline of large-load ESAs and a >$70 billion investment pipeline were highlighted. Offsetting these positives are weather-driven sales headwinds, ongoing elevated reliability-related costs, timing uncertainty on a portion of construction agreements, and the need for substantial future transmission investment and regulatory reconciliations. Overall, the highlights meaningfully outweigh the lowlights, reflecting a confident growth and execution narrative with manageable risks.Positive Updates
Quarterly EPS Growth
Reported first quarter 2026 earnings per share of $1.28 versus $1.07 in Q1 2025, an increase of $0.21 per share, or approximately +19.6% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Weather-Driven Sales Headwind
Ameren Missouri's Q1 electric retail sales were negatively impacted by a warmer-than-normal winter in 2026 versus a colder-than-normal winter in 2025, partially offsetting benefits from infrastructure investments.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly EPS Growth
Reported first quarter 2026 earnings per share of $1.28 versus $1.07 in Q1 2025, an increase of $0.21 per share, or approximately +19.6% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ameren reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $5.25–$5.45 after reporting Q1 EPS of $1.28 (vs. $1.07 in Q1 2025) and said it expects 2026–2030 earnings growth near the upper end of a 6%–8% CAGR driven by a 6.2% compounded annual sales growth assumption (2026–2030) and 10.6% compound annual rate-base growth; the company invested more than $1.5 billion in infrastructure in Q1, is executing a pipeline of more than $70 billion through 2035, expects to place >5 GW of new capacity into service by 2030 (including the 50 MW Bowling Green and 300 MW Split Rail projects, two 800 MW simple‑cycle plants at Castle Bluff and Big Hollow with 400 MW of battery at Big Hollow, and a 2.1 GW West Alton combined‑cycle planned for 2031), has signed 2.2 GW of ESAs (3.4 GW of Missouri construction agreements, 850 MW in Illinois, with ~1.2 GW remaining under construction agreements), plans to file ~3 GW of CCNs by Q3, and reiterated disciplined financing plans (≈$4 billion equity expected 2026–2030, $600 million sold forward representing ~6.4 million shares for 2026, ~$600 million sold forward via ATM so far in 2026) while highlighting operational metrics such as ~700 MW winter capacity gain at Audrain, avoided outage minutes (4.3 million minutes for ~20,000 customers in March; ~12 million minutes and ~43,000 customer outages mitigated across a two‑day April storm period), ~$63 million customer savings from gas storage, >$40 million in customer energy assistance, a $65 million ICC reconciliation request for Ameren Illinois (decision expected December), an Ameren Missouri rate filing planned mid‑2026, and an S&P BBB+ rating with stable outlook.Ameren Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.75B | 8.80B | 7.62B | 7.50B | 7.96B | 6.39B |
| Gross Profit | 3.59B | 2.60B | 3.65B | 3.47B | 3.34B | 2.99B |
| EBITDA | 4.18B | 4.04B | 3.54B | 3.41B | 3.18B | 2.81B |
| Net Income | 1.56B | 1.46B | 1.18B | 1.15B | 1.07B | 990.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 51.22B | 48.48B | 44.60B | 40.83B | 37.90B | 35.73B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 12.00M | 13.00M | 7.00M | 25.00M | 250.00M | 16.00M |
| Total Debt | 21.81B | 19.83B | 18.72B | 16.51B | 15.10B | 13.61B |
| Total Liabilities | 37.40B | 34.95B | 32.35B | 29.35B | 27.27B | 25.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 13.69B | 13.40B | 12.11B | 11.35B | 10.51B | 9.70B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.41B | -821.00M | -1.65B | -1.21B | -1.12B | -1.86B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.25B | 3.35B | 2.76B | 2.56B | 2.26B | 1.66B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.74B | -4.14B | -4.46B | -3.80B | -3.37B | -3.53B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.56B | 884.00M | 1.75B | 1.29B | 1.17B | 1.72B |
Ameren Technical Analysis
Positive
113.78
Price Trends
110.77
Negative
110.14
Negative
106.51
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.90
Positive
46.38
Neutral
51.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AEE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 113.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 110.08, above the 50-day MA of 110.77, and above the 200-day MA of 106.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.90 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AEE.
Ameren Risk Analysis
Ameren disclosed 20 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ameren reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ameren Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
62 Neutral | $21.96B | 20.86 | 11.02% | 2.98% | 9.93% | -1.74% | |
62 Neutral | $27.20B | 24.98 | 8.53% | 3.61% | 12.63% | -17.19% | |
62 Neutral | $26.95B | 18.71 | 8.91% | 4.11% | 7.75% | 66.25% | |
61 Neutral | $26.68B | 27.75 | 8.53% | 3.08% | 6.73% | 26.95% | |
60 Neutral | $30.13B | 19.04 | 11.70% | 2.57% | 3.76% | 25.15% | |
60 Neutral | $28.86B | 21.90 | 10.78% | 3.07% | 17.53% | -8.86% |
* Utilities Sector Average
AEE
Ameren
109.12
10.50
10.65%
CMS
CMS Energy
70.51
0.12
0.17%
DTE
DTE Energy
139.53
4.11
3.04%
FE
FirstEnergy
46.84
4.87
11.60%
ES
Eversource Energy
72.22
9.58
15.29%
PPL
PPL
35.68
-0.26
-0.72%
Ameren Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Ameren Expands Equity Distribution Program for Future Financing
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
On July 31, 2026, Ameren Corporation expanded its existing equity distribution program, increasing the aggregate gross sales price authorized for offerings of common stock by $2 billion. After this change, common stock with an aggregate gross sale...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ameren posts stronger second-quarter 2026 earnings growth
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Ameren reported second-quarter 2026 net income attributable to common shareholders of $314 million, or $1.13 per diluted share, up from $275 million, or $1.01 per diluted share, in the prior-year quarter. For the first six months...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ameren Posts Strong Q1 2026 Results, Reaffirms Guidance
Positive
May 5, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Ameren reported first-quarter 2026 net income attributable to common shareholders of $357 million, or $1.28 per diluted share, up from $289 million, or $1.07 per diluted share, a year earlier, driven primarily by earnings on increa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.