Ameren (AEE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $26.64B
• Dividend Yield: 2.82%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.63M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.27
• Revenue Growth: 8.96%
• EPS Growth: 3.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 8,981
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 87
• Industry: Regulated Electric
• EPS (TTM): 1.07
• Shares Outstanding: 276,662,140
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,853,869
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,628,365
• PEG Ratio: 10.70
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -14.52
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.87
• 1Y Price Target: $104.78
• Price Target Upside: 8.81% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $107.00 ▲( 11.11% Upside)

Ameren's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, underpinned by strategic growth plans and investments. However, technical analysis suggests mixed signals, and valuation metrics hint at potential overvaluation. The positive earnings outlook and robust strategic planning are key drivers of the score.

Positive Factors

Capital Expenditure Plan

Ameren Corporation's new five-year capital expenditure plan for 2025-29 is set at $26.3 billion, which is a 20% increase from the previous plan, indicating a strong commitment to growth and investment.

Growth Strategy

The revised Preferred Resource Plan includes additional investment and generation capacity, with 1.8GW added by 2030, supporting Ameren's long-term growth strategy.

Regulatory Environment

Missouri legislative bill proposals are likely to support Ameren's initiatives, reducing regulatory lag and improving cash recovery of investments.

Negative Factors

Equity Needs

Management added +$4.4bn of capital to its plan while only adding ~$300mm of incremental equity (~7% of incremental CapEx).

Stock Valuation

Shares of AEE have been one of the best performers since the middle of 2024, re-rating nearly ~19% and now trade at ~12-13% premium on 2027 EPS.

Tariff Impact

Management expects the broader impact of tariffs to be minimal with ~2% exposure on its $26.3bn capital plan.

Ameren Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ameren Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a public utility holding company in the United States. It operates through four segments: Ameren Missouri, Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution, Ameren Illinois Natural Gas, and Ameren Transmission. The company engages in the rate-regulated electric generation, transmission, and distribution activities; and rate-regulated natural gas distribution and transmission businesses. It primarily generates electricity through coal, nuclear, and natural gas, as well as renewable sources, such as hydroelectric, wind, methane gas, and solar. The company serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Ameren Corporation was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

Ameren Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity and natural gas to its customers. The company's key revenue streams include electricity sales from its generation and distribution operations, and natural gas sales from its distribution network. Revenue is further bolstered by regulated utility rates approved by state regulatory commissions, which ensure a reasonable return on investment for infrastructure and operational costs. Ameren's earnings are influenced by factors such as energy consumption patterns, regulatory decisions, and its ability to efficiently manage operational costs. Additionally, the company may engage in partnerships or initiatives focused on sustainable energy solutions, which can contribute to its revenue through innovation and efficiency improvements.

Ameren Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ameren demonstrates strong profitability and operational efficiency, with steady revenue growth and effective cost management. The balance sheet reflects low financial leverage and solid equity utilization, although maintaining a balance between debt and equity is essential. However, challenges in generating free cash flow due to high capital expenditures need attention.

Income Statement

Ameren's income statement shows strong financial performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is 61.8%, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin has consistently improved, reaching 15.3% in TTM, reflecting solid profitability. Revenue growth is positive, with a 3.7% increase from the previous year, highlighting a steady upward trajectory. The EBIT margin stands at 19.9% and the EBITDA margin at 45.3%, both demonstrating robust operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a stable financial position with some areas of concern. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.0014 in TTM, indicating low leverage and financial stability. However, the equity ratio is moderate at 26.8%, suggesting moderate reliance on debt to finance assets. ROE is strong at 9.9% in TTM, showcasing effective utilization of equity to generate profits. While the company's equity base is strong, maintaining a balance between debt and equity is crucial.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates mixed results. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.51 in TTM, showing a solid ability to convert profits into cash. However, the free cash flow remains negative at -$1.813 billion in TTM, mainly due to high capital expenditures. Free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting challenges in generating free cash flow despite profitability, which could impact future investments.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
7.90B	7.62B	7.50B	7.96B	6.39B	5.79B
	Gross Profit
4.88B	3.65B	3.47B	3.34B	2.99B	2.86B
	EBIT
1.57B	1.52B	1.56B	1.51B	1.33B	1.30B
	EBITDA
3.58B	3.54B	3.40B	3.18B	2.81B	2.53B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.21B	1.18B	1.15B	1.07B	990.00M	871.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
23.00M	7.00M	25.00M	250.00M	8.00M	139.00M
	Total Assets
45.66B	44.60B	40.83B	37.90B	35.73B	32.03B
	Total Debt
17.00M	18.72B	16.51B	15.10B	13.61B	11.58B
	Net Debt
-6.00M	18.71B	16.48B	15.09B	13.60B	11.44B
	Total Liabilities
33.32B	32.35B	29.35B	27.27B	25.91B	22.95B
	Stockholders Equity
12.22B	12.11B	11.35B	10.51B	9.70B	8.94B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-1.81B	-1.56B	-1.21B	-1.12B	-1.86B	-1.57B
	Operating Cash Flow
1.82B	2.76B	2.56B	2.26B	1.66B	1.73B
	Investing Cash Flow
-4.64B	-4.46B	-3.80B	-3.37B	-3.53B	-3.33B
	Financing Cash Flow
1.96B	1.75B	1.29B	1.17B	1.72B	1.73B

Ameren Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 96.30
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AEE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 96.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 97.69, below the 50-day MA of 98.21, and above the 200-day MA of 91.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AEE.

Ameren Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PPL	74 Outperform	$25.63B	25.89	7.00%	3.01%	5.62%	30.02%
AEE	72 Outperform	$26.64B	21.36	10.23%	2.82%	8.96%	3.75%
DTE	72 Outperform	$28.29B	18.41	13.28%	3.10%	11.16%	20.94%
ES	71 Outperform	$23.31B	27.40	5.63%	4.57%	10.82%	―
FE	70 Neutral	$24.30B	22.40	8.69%	4.04%	7.92%	1.54%
CNP	67 Neutral	$24.52B	25.26	9.22%	2.21%	4.76%	4.08%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$8.54B	10.24	4.67%	4.36%	4.12%	-13.19%

Ameren Corporate Events

Ameren Enters Forward Sale Agreements with Major Banks

On May 12, 2025, Ameren entered into forward sale agreements with major financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Barclays, and Wells Fargo, involving the sale of Base Shares and Option Shares. These agreements, part of a broader strategy to manage stock issuance and pricing, allow Ameren to settle by issuing shares or through cash or net share settlements by January 15, 2027. The initial forward sale price is set at $91.885 per share, subject to adjustments based on interest rates and expected dividends. The agreements also include provisions for acceleration and settlement adjustments based on market conditions and corporate actions. The transactions, which were part of a registered public offering, were executed under a Registration Statement effective since October 13, 2023.

The most recent analyst rating on (AEE) stock is a Buy with a $91.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ameren stock, see the AEE Stock Forecast page.

Ameren Director Noelle K. Eder Resigns

On April 22, 2025, Noelle K. Eder informed Ameren Corporation’s Board of Directors of her resignation as a director, effective May 6, 2025. Her departure is due to personal reasons related to a change in her primary employment requiring her to live outside the United States, and not due to any disagreements with the company.