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Eversource Energy (ES)
NYSE:ES
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Eversource Energy
(NYSE:ES)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$79.00
▲(7.40% Upside)
The score is driven by improving earnings and supportive guidance, plus strong technical uptrend and a solid dividend yield. Offsetting these positives are elevated leverage and historically weak/volatile free cash flow, along with sizable future financing needs and regulatory timing uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Rate-base growth & regulated model
Eversource's regulated business and targeted 8.3% rate‑base growth through 2030 underpin durable, allowed-return earnings. Consistent infrastructure investment in distribution/transmission expands the regulatory asset base, supporting steady revenue and long-term return on invested capital.
Operational reliability
Top‑decile reliability metrics reduce outage costs, regulatory penalties and customer friction, strengthening regulatory goodwill. High operational performance is a structural competitive advantage for retaining favorable rate treatment and enabling smoother approval of grid modernization investments.
Clear multi‑year earnings plan
Management's explicit 5%–7% EPS CAGR target and near‑term guidance provide a credible framework for multi‑year cash flow planning. Coupled with a sizable, articulated capital program, this clarity supports modest but predictable earnings growth and more effective financing and regulatory engagement.
Negative Factors
Large multi‑year financing need
The business is capital intensive and requires substantial external financing over 2026–2030. Dependence on debt, securitization timing and modest equity issuance increases refinancing and execution risk, potentially pressuring credit metrics and constraining financial flexibility over multiple years.
Elevated leverage
Although improving, high absolute debt relative to equity means returns are levered and vulnerable to interest cost increases. Elevated leverage limits room for incremental investment without dilutive equity or higher debt, making capital allocation and credit profiles more sensitive to economic and regulatory shocks.
Volatile cash generation
Historically weak and volatile free cash flow forces reliance on external funding and securitizations. Low operating cash flow relative to debt reduces self‑funding capacity, raising execution risk for the capital plan and increasing sensitivity to timing of regulatory recoveries like storm securitization or Aquarion proceeds.
Eversource Energy (ES) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$26.93B
Dividend Yield4.54%
Average Volume (3M)2.54M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.7
Beta (1Y)0.18
Revenue Growth13.12%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees10,000
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.12
Shares Outstanding375,496,600
10 Day Avg. Volume2,682,255
30 Day Avg. Volume2,537,932
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.15
Price to Book (P/B)<0.01
Price to Sales (P/S)1.84
P/FCF Ratio0.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10K
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.26K
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.64K
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.79K
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$75.67Price Target Upside2.87% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)4.92
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.99B
Eversource Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionEversource Energy, a public utility holding company, engages in the energy delivery business. The company operates through Electric Distribution, Electric Transmission, Natural Gas Distribution, and Water Distribution segments. It is involved in the transmission and distribution of electricity; solar power facilities; and distribution of natural gas. The company operates regulated water utilities that provide water services to approximately 226,000 customers. It serves residential, commercial, industrial, municipal and fire protection, and other customers in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. The company was formerly known as Northeast Utilities and changed its name to Eversource Energy in April 2015. Eversource Energy is based in Springfield, Massachusetts.
How the Company Makes MoneyEversource Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company operates on a regulated utility model, which allows it to earn a return on its investments in infrastructure, such as power lines and gas pipelines. Key revenue streams include charges for electricity distribution, natural gas delivery, and related services. Additionally, Eversource benefits from various regulatory mechanisms that allow for cost recovery and investment in renewable energy projects. The company also engages in energy efficiency programs, which not only enhance customer satisfaction but can lead to additional revenue through incentives and rebates from state and federal programs. Strategic partnerships with local governments and organizations further bolster its initiatives in renewable energy and sustainability.
Eversource Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution, reliable earnings growth, meaningful capital deployment, and tangible balance sheet improvement, balanced against identifiable near-term challenges including segment-specific pressures, regulatory timing risks (Aquarion sale and storm cost prudency), settlement charges, and substantial multi-year financing needs. Management presented clear mitigation plans (securitization, alternative financings, targeted equity issuance) and reiterated long-term growth targets and regulatory engagement to derisk the plan.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong recurring non-GAAP and GAAP earnings
Full-year 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $4.76 vs $4.57 in 2024, an increase of ~4.2%. Full-year GAAP EPS of $4.05 vs $2.27 in 2024, a notable increase (~78%). Q4 EPS of $1.12 (GAAP and non-GAAP) vs GAAP $0.20 and non-GAAP $1.01 for Q4 2024, demonstrating quarter-over-quarter improvement.
Dividend increase
Paid dividends of $3.01 per share in 2025, representing a 5.2% increase year-over-year, supporting shareholder yield continuity.
Operational reliability and customer service
Top-decile MAIFI and SAIDI performance; customers experience an outage on average only once in nearly two years. Responded effectively to major weather events and maintained high system reliability.
Large capital deployment and expanded five-year plan
Deployed over $4.0B of capital in 2025. Announced a 2026–2030 capital plan of $26.5B (up $2.3B vs prior plan), including >$11B electric distribution, nearly $7B gas distribution, and >$7B transmission; overlapping 2026–2029 increase of $1.5B.
Rate base growth and targeted investments
Customer-focused investments drive an 8.3% growth in rate base from 2024 through 2030; major projects include the $1.8B Cambridge underground substation and continued investment in grid modernization and resiliency.
AMI and grid modernization milestones
Advanced Metering Infrastructure in Massachusetts surpassed 100,000 smart meter installations; remaining AMI investment in MA and potential CT AMI upside remains part of the capital plan.
Progress on offshore wind and related projects
Revolution Wind onshore substation complete, project 87% complete, first power expected in weeks; company states no change to the contingent liability recorded in 2025 based on current construction updates and cost estimates.
Regulatory wins supporting recovery and affordability
Obtained several constructive regulatory outcomes in 2025: PBR adjustments in MA (NSTAR Electric +$55M, NSTAR Gas +$10M), recovery mechanisms advanced (98% of $2.0B deferred storm costs in current rates or pending reviews), and MA rate relief plan implemented to assist customers during peak winter usage.
Balance sheet and credit metric improvements
Improved FFO-to-debt metrics by >400 basis points at Moody's and ~300 basis points at S&P over the prior 12 months (ending Sept 30), reflecting cash flow and balance sheet enhancements.
Clear long-term growth guidance
2026 EPS guidance of $4.80–$4.95 with a stated long-term EPS CAGR target of 5%–7% and a plan to reach the upper half of that range by 2028 (off 2027 base), indicating confidence in multi-year growth despite near-term headwinds.
Negative Updates
Transmission segment earnings decline
Electric transmission earnings decreased to $2.09 per share in 2025 from $2.30 in 2024, a decline of ~9.1%, partially offset by other segment gains.
Higher operating and financing costs
Increased O&M, interest expense, depreciation, and property taxes weighed on results. Parent and Other experienced a higher non-GAAP loss ($0.22 per share in 2025 vs $0.16 in 2024) driven primarily by higher interest costs.
One-time charges and settlement impacts
Recorded a $12.2M charge as part of NSTAR Gas' settlement with the Massachusetts Attorney General, and recognized a $75M net loss (GAAP, $0.20/sh) related to an increase in liability for expected future obligations to Global Infrastructure Partners from the sale of offshore wind interests.
Material near-term financing needs and uncertainty
Five-year cash need of $34.5B–$35.0B (including $27.8B infrastructure + $6.7B–$7.2B dividends). Expected cash from operations of $24.2B–$24.7B (~70% of needs) leaves incremental financing of $8.5B–$9.0B plus $800M–$1.1B equity issuance. Outcomes depend on securitization timing and the potential Aquarion sale.
Aquarion sale regulatory uncertainty
Sale of Aquarion Water remains uncertain (PURA remand; revised procedural schedule with a proposed decision and final decision due March 25). If the sale does not close, management plans to pursue alternative financing and a rate case; assumed equity portion from Aquarion in models was ~$1.6B.
Timing risk for storm cost recovery and securitization
Decision on Connecticut storm cost prudency expected in July; securitization proceeds (up to $1.5B) may not be available until ~Q3 2027, delaying cash collection and balance sheet relief.
2026 guidance reflects moderation and transitory headwinds
2026 EPS guidance ($4.80–$4.95) is modestly higher but characterized as a transitional year due to timing of regulatory outcomes, higher depreciation/property taxes, interest costs, and share dilution before anticipated 2027 inflection.
Company Guidance
Eversource guided 2026 EPS of $4.80–$4.95 and reiterated five‑year non‑GAAP EPS growth of 5%–7% off 2025 non‑GAAP EPS of $4.76 (2025 GAAP EPS $4.05), targeting the upper half of that range (implying >~6% growth) by 2028 measured off 2027 results. The company updated its 2026–2030 capital plan to $26.5 billion (up $2.3 billion vs. prior plan and $1.5 billion for the 2026–29 overlap), excluding Aquarion which would add $1.3 billion; electric distribution is the largest incremental driver (+$696 million, now >$11 billion), gas distribution +$523 million (nearly $7 billion), transmission +$233 million (over $7 billion), technology & facilities $1.2 billion (+$75 million), and rate base is expected to grow 8.3% from 2024–2030. Financing needs total $34.5–$35.0 billion (infrastructure $27.8 billion plus dividends $6.7–$7.2 billion), with projected operating cash flows of $24.2–$24.7 billion (~70% funding), $8.5–$9.0 billion from incremental debt/other financing (equity‑like content $1.3–$2.5 billion), securitization proceeds up to $1.5 billion (~3% of inflows), and equity issuance of $800–$1,100 million (unchanged by Aquarion); Eversource reported >400 bps improvement in FFO‑to‑debt at Moody’s (300 bps at S&P). Key timing and other metrics noted: 2026 moderate near‑term headwinds (higher depreciation, property tax, interest, share dilution, tax rate), dividends paid $3.01 in 2025 (+5.2%), >$4.0 billion deployed in 2025 capital, AMI >100,000 MA meters installed, PURA Aquarion remand decision due March 25, Connecticut storm prudency decision expected July (enabling securitization cash likely by Q3 2027), and Revolution Wind first power in weeks with COD targeted H2 2026.Eversource Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability rebounded strongly in 2024–2025 with improved net and operating margins, but the balance sheet remains leveraged and cash flow quality is weak: multi-year negative free cash flow and low operating cash flow-to-debt coverage indicate ongoing funding dependence despite recent improvement.Income Statement
Revenue has been relatively steady with modest growth in 2025 (+3.0%) after being flat-to-down in 2023–2024. Profitability recovered meaningfully: net margin improved from a loss in 2023 (-3.7%) to 6.8% in 2024 and 12.5% in 2025, with solid 2025 operating margin (22.1%) and EBITDA margin (39.8%). Offsetting this, gross margin has trended down versus 2020–2022 levels, and earnings have shown volatility (notably the 2023 loss).67
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage remains elevated for the period shown: debt-to-equity was ~1.89–1.94 in 2023–2024 before improving to ~1.27 in 2025, indicating some balance-sheet repair. However, absolute debt is very large relative to equity and assets, and returns on equity are inconsistent (negative in 2023; modest in 2024; 2025 ROE appears extremely low based on the provided figure), which suggests earnings power relative to the capital base is not consistently strong.54
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation quality is mixed. Operating cash flow covered only a modest portion of debt (coverage ~0.26–0.35 in 2020–2024, falling to ~0.15 in 2025). Free cash flow was negative in 2020–2024, indicating heavy ongoing investment needs, then turned positive in 2025; however the 2025 free-cash-flow growth figure is sharply negative, signaling high volatility in cash outcomes. Overall, the business has relied on funding capacity rather than consistently self-funding through free cash flow.41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.15B | 13.55B | 11.90B | 11.91B | 12.29B | 9.86B |
| Gross Profit | 6.40B | 4.08B | 3.70B | 4.85B | 5.41B | 4.75B |
| EBITDA | 5.13B | 5.39B | 4.13B | 1.40B | 4.19B | 3.49B |
| Net Income | 1.34B | 1.69B | 811.65M | -442.24M | 1.40B | 1.22B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 61.70B | 63.79T | 59.59B | 55.61B | 53.23B | 48.49B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 259.34M | 135.35B | 26.66M | 53.87M | 374.60M | 66.77M |
| Total Debt | 29.84B | 29.79T | 29.11B | 26.75B | 22.94B | 20.22B |
| Total Liabilities | 45.52B | 40.33T | 44.40B | 41.28B | 37.60B | 33.74B |
| Stockholders Equity | 16.03B | 23.46T | 15.04B | 14.17B | 15.47B | 14.60B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -524.39M | 1.18T | -2.32B | -2.69B | -1.04B | -1.21B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.84B | 1.18T | 2.16B | 1.65B | 2.40B | 1.96B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.50B | -284.70B | -4.54B | -4.87B | -4.13B | -3.45B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 829.27M | -891.94B | 2.34B | 2.87B | 2.03B | 1.44B |
Eversource Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
73.56
Price Trends
68.77
Positive
69.56
Positive
66.43
Positive
Market Momentum
1.14
Negative
65.15
Neutral
75.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 73.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 70.05, above the 50-day MA of 68.77, and above the 200-day MA of 66.43, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ES.
Eversource Energy Risk Analysis
Eversource Energy disclosed 20 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Eversource Energy reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Eversource Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $26.82B | 6.03 | 27.88% | 5.68% | 4.43% | 123.35% | |
68 Neutral | $29.30B | 20.25 | 11.41% | 2.86% | 22.71% | 22.86% | |
68 Neutral | $27.23B | 25.05 | 7.65% | 3.13% | 8.42% | 32.48% | |
66 Neutral | $26.93B | 15.72 | 10.84% | 4.54% | 13.12% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $23.02B | 21.31 | 12.33% | 3.10% | 10.96% | -0.77% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
64 Neutral | $28.27B | 27.73 | 8.17% | 3.94% | 7.64% | 48.61% |
* Utilities Sector Average
ES
Eversource Energy
73.56
13.41
22.30%
AEE
Ameren
110.05
14.03
14.61%
CMS
CMS Energy
75.86
5.86
8.37%
EIX
Edison International
73.74
24.60
50.05%
FE
FirstEnergy
50.20
9.00
21.84%
PPL
PPL
37.44
3.65
10.82%
Eversource Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Eversource Energy Projects Strong Growth With 2026 Outlook
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Eversource Energy reported sharply higher results for 2025 on February 12, 2026, with GAAP earnings rising to $1.69 billion, or $4.56 per share, from $811.7 million, or $2.27 per share, in 2024, while non-GAAP recurring earnings improved to $1.77 billion, or $4.76 per share, from $1.63 billion, or $4.57 per share. The rebound reflects the absence of large 2024 losses tied to offshore wind divestitures and the pending Aquarion Water sale, alongside solid segment performance led by transmission, higher electric and gas distribution revenues from base rate increases, and stable water earnings.
Fourth-quarter 2025 earnings climbed to $421.3 million, or $1.12 per share, compared with $72.5 million, or $0.20 per share, a year earlier, with non-GAAP fourth-quarter earnings also up, highlighting improved operations across the utility portfolio despite customer credits, penalties and higher costs. Management outlined a more growth-oriented profile as a pure-play regulated utility, issuing 2026 earnings guidance of $4.80–$4.95 per share, projecting 5–7 percent annual EPS growth through 2030, unveiling a larger $26.5 billion five-year capital plan focused on electric and gas networks, and signaling $800 million to $1.1 billion of equity issuance over 2026–2030 to support the expanded investment program and balance sheet strength.
The most recent analyst rating on (ES) stock is a Hold with a $74.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Eversource Energy stock, see the ES Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Eversource Energy Elects W. Robert Mudge to Board
Positive
Dec 5, 2025
On December 3, 2025, Eversource Energy announced the election of W. Robert Mudge to its Board of Trustees, effective January 1, 2026. Mudge, who has extensive experience in network infrastructure and corporate governance, will also serve on the Audit Committee and Finance and Risk Management Committee. His appointment is expected to enhance Eversource’s efforts to modernize its energy delivery systems and improve service reliability. Additionally, the Board appointed David H. Long as the Chair of the Governance, Environmental and Sustainability Committee and approved updates to its Corporate Governance Guidelines.
The most recent analyst rating on (ES) stock is a Buy with a $75.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Eversource Energy stock, see the ES Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyLegal ProceedingsM&A Transactions
Eversource Energy’s Aquarion Sale Rejected by Regulators
Negative
Nov 24, 2025
On November 21, 2025, Eversource Energy announced that the Connecticut Public Utilities Regulatory Authority rejected the proposed sale of the Aquarion Water Company to the South Central Connecticut Regional Water Authority. In response, Eversource emphasized its strong financial position and strategic planning, including issuing common equity and $600 million in parent company debt earlier in the year. The company plans to submit an Aquarion rate case in early 2026 and remains focused on maintaining operational excellence and exploring regulatory and legal remedies following the decision.
The most recent analyst rating on (ES) stock is a Buy with a $79.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Eversource Energy stock, see the ES Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.