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American Electric Power (AEP)
NASDAQ:AEP

American Electric Power (AEP) AI Stock Analysis

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AEP

American Electric Power

(NASDAQ:AEP)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$126.00
â–²(9.84% Upside)
American Electric Power's strong financial performance and positive earnings call outlook are significant strengths. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and valuation metrics do not indicate significant undervaluation. The strategic issuance of debentures supports long-term growth.
Positive Factors
Long-Term Earnings Growth
The increased long-term earnings growth rate reflects AEP's strategic focus on expanding its revenue base, supported by robust capital investments, which can enhance its market position and shareholder value over time.
Capital Investment Plan
AEP's substantial capital investment plan is poised to drive future growth by enhancing infrastructure, supporting load growth, and improving operational efficiency, which are critical for long-term success in the utility sector.
Regulatory and Legislative Progress
Favorable regulatory developments provide a stable environment for AEP to execute its growth strategies, ensuring better returns on investments and enhancing its competitive edge in the regulated utility market.
Negative Factors
Debt Levels
AEP's reliance on debt financing could pose risks, especially in a rising interest rate environment, potentially impacting its financial flexibility and increasing the cost of capital.
Cash Flow Volatility
Volatility in cash flow generation may challenge AEP's ability to consistently fund operations and capital projects, affecting its long-term financial stability and growth execution.
Regulatory Challenges in West Virginia
Regulatory challenges in West Virginia could hinder AEP's ability to optimize its rate base and return on equity, potentially impacting profitability and operational efficiency in that region.

American Electric Power (AEP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

American Electric Power Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc., an electric public utility holding company, engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity for sale to retail and wholesale customers in the United States. It operates through Vertically Integrated Utilities, Transmission and Distribution Utilities, AEP Transmission Holdco, and Generation & Marketing segments. The company generates electricity using coal and lignite, natural gas, nuclear, hydro, solar, wind, and other energy sources. It also supplies and markets electric power at wholesale to other electric utility companies, rural electric cooperatives, municipalities, and other market participants. American Electric Power Company, Inc. was incorporated in 1906 and is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.
How the Company Makes MoneyAEP generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity to its customers, which includes residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. The company operates regulated utility subsidiaries, which are allowed to charge rates set by state public utility commissions. These rates are typically based on the cost of providing service, including operating expenses, maintenance costs, and a reasonable return on investment. Key revenue streams include electricity sales, transmission service fees, and distribution service fees. Additionally, AEP invests in renewable energy projects and may receive incentives or tax credits that contribute to its revenue. Strategic partnerships with other energy companies and investments in energy infrastructure also enhance its earning potential.

American Electric Power Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Retail Electric
Retail Electric
Measures performance in the retail electricity market, reflecting customer base size, pricing power, and market competitiveness.
Chart InsightsAmerican Electric Power's Retail Electric segment shows consistent growth in both Vertically Integrated Utilities and Transmission and Distribution Utilities. The latest earnings call highlights a record-breaking second quarter and an increased capital investment plan, driven by transformative load growth from data centers and manufacturing reshoring. This aligns with the upward revision of the 2025 earnings forecast and a long-term growth rate of 6% to 8%. However, challenges in regulatory recovery and potential tax credit uncertainties could impact future capital allocation and growth strategies.
Data provided by:The Fly

American Electric Power Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive outlook for AEP, with significant long-term growth projections, a large capital investment plan, and strong financial performance. Although there are some challenges, particularly in West Virginia, the overall sentiment is buoyed by exceptional load growth and positive regulatory and legislative progress.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Long-Term Operating Earnings Growth Rate
AEP announced a new increased long-term operating earnings growth rate of 7% to 9% for 2026 to 2030 with an expected 9% compounded annual growth rate over the 5-year period.
Large Capital Investment Plan
AEP has introduced a $72 billion capital plan over the next 5 years, which is one of the largest in the industry and represents a more than 30% increase over the previous plan.
Strong Financial Performance
AEP reported third quarter 2025 operating earnings of $1.80 per share or $963 million and year-to-date operating earnings of $4.78 per share, up from $4.38 per share in 2024, driven by favorable rate changes and strong transmission investment execution.
Exceptional Load Growth
AEP is experiencing significant load growth, projecting a system peak demand of 65 gigawatts by 2030, driven by data centers and industrial development. The load growth is backed by 28 gigawatts of contracted load additions.
Regulatory and Legislative Progress
Positive legislative outcomes in Ohio, Oklahoma, and Texas are supporting AEP's growth and regulatory framework, including Ohio House Bill 15, Oklahoma Senate Bill 998, and Texas House Bill 5247.
Negative Updates
Impact of Prior Year Sale
Operating earnings for the third quarter decreased to $1.80 per share from $1.85 per share in the same period last year, primarily reflecting the impact of the prior year sale of the on-site partners distributed resources business.
Regulatory Challenges in West Virginia
AEP is facing challenges in West Virginia, requiring a filing for reconsideration centered around adjustments to the authorized ROE, capital structure, and rate base following a recent base case order.
Company Guidance
During the American Electric Power (AEP) Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company announced several key financial metrics and guidance for future growth. AEP reported third-quarter operating earnings of $1.80 per share or $963 million. The company reaffirmed its 2025 full-year operating earnings range of $5.75 to $5.95 per share, guiding to the upper half of this range. For 2026, AEP unveiled an operating earnings guidance range of $6.15 to $6.45 per share, representing approximately an 8% increase from the 2025 guidance range midpoint. Additionally, AEP introduced a new long-term operating earnings growth rate of 7% to 9% for 2026 to 2030, with an expected 9% compounded annual growth rate over the five-year period. This growth is supported by a $72 billion capital plan, a significant increase from previous plans, driven by strong load growth, particularly in regions with high demand from data centers and industrial development. AEP’s strategy includes leveraging its unmatched transmission infrastructure, with a focus on operational excellence and partnerships to manage costs, while targeting an improved regulatory environment to enhance return on equity (ROE) and maintain customer affordability.

American Electric Power Financial Statement Overview

Summary
American Electric Power demonstrates strong profitability with high EBIT and net profit margins. However, challenges exist in maintaining gross profit margins and managing debt levels. Cash flow generation is generally positive, but historical volatility suggests potential risks.
Income Statement
75
Positive
American Electric Power shows a stable revenue growth rate of 2.5% TTM, with strong EBIT and EBITDA margins at 70.6% and 112.7% respectively. The net profit margin is exceptionally high at 46.8% TTM, indicating robust profitability. However, the gross profit margin has decreased compared to previous years, suggesting potential cost management issues.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 1.56 TTM, indicating a moderate level of leverage. Return on equity is strong at 36.2%, reflecting efficient use of equity. However, the equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting a higher reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks in a rising interest rate environment.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Operating cash flow is healthy, with a coverage ratio of 0.57 TTM. Free cash flow growth is positive at 1.05% TTM, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.33, indicating a reasonable conversion of profits into cash. However, the company has experienced fluctuations in free cash flow in previous years, which could indicate volatility in cash generation.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue21.44B19.92B19.38B19.31B16.62B14.91B
Gross Profit7.95B6.36B5.62B4.87B4.67B4.28B
EBITDA9.08B8.09B7.21B7.10B6.75B6.21B
Net Income3.66B2.97B2.21B2.31B2.49B2.20B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets110.25B103.08B96.68B93.40B87.67B80.76B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.33B418.30M544.40M697.00M623.80M593.50M
Total Debt47.89B45.76B43.61B41.58B36.66B34.43B
Total Liabilities78.71B76.09B71.40B69.35B64.99B59.98B
Stockholders Equity30.39B26.94B25.25B23.89B22.43B20.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.17B6.66B-2.49B-1.48B-1.92B-2.48B
Operating Cash Flow6.86B6.80B5.01B5.29B3.84B3.83B
Investing Cash Flow-10.58B-7.60B-6.27B-7.75B-6.43B-6.23B
Financing Cash Flow4.53B659.20M1.08B2.57B2.61B2.41B

American Electric Power Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price114.71
Price Trends
50DMA
118.51
Negative
100DMA
114.33
Positive
200DMA
108.44
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.34
Positive
RSI
38.42
Neutral
STOCH
24.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AEP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 114.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 118.32, below the 50-day MA of 118.51, and above the 200-day MA of 108.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AEP.

American Electric Power Risk Analysis

American Electric Power disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Electric Power reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

American Electric Power Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$74.38B20.127.53%4.03%-7.06%38.21%
70
Outperform
$89.89B18.179.92%3.59%4.80%14.44%
68
Neutral
$61.19B16.7612.85%3.26%7.66%37.42%
67
Neutral
$44.21B15.6610.31%3.62%6.07%15.20%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
64
Neutral
$94.38B21.3113.06%3.38%9.40%-6.05%
63
Neutral
$50.67B20.199.27%4.44%12.72%4.90%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AEP
American Electric Power
114.71
26.54
30.10%
D
Dominion Energy
60.11
9.53
18.84%
DUK
Duke Energy
117.43
14.09
13.63%
EXC
Exelon
44.22
8.34
23.24%
NGG
National Grid Transco
77.16
21.88
39.58%
SO
Southern Co
87.03
7.25
9.09%

American Electric Power Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
American Electric Power Announces $1 Billion Debenture Sale
Neutral
Dec 5, 2025

On December 3, 2025, American Electric Power Company, Inc. announced the entry into an Underwriting Agreement for the offering and sale of $1 billion in junior subordinated debentures. This financial move, involving Series C and Series D Debentures, aims to strengthen the company’s financial position by increasing the aggregate principal amount of outstanding debentures to $1.5 billion each for both series, potentially impacting its market standing and stakeholder interests.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
American Electric Power’s New $3.5 Billion Stock Agreement
Neutral
Nov 25, 2025

On November 25, 2025, American Electric Power Company, Inc. entered into a Distribution Agreement with several financial institutions to sell up to $3.5 billion of its common stock. This agreement allows for sales through various methods, including at-the-market offerings and forward stock purchase transactions, which could impact the company’s capital structure and market positioning. The company also terminated a previous agreement from November 2023, which had a lower sales cap of $1.7 billion, indicating a strategic shift in its funding approach.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
American Electric Power Issues $2 Billion in Debentures
Positive
Sep 25, 2025

On September 23, 2025, American Electric Power Company, Inc. announced the issuance of $1.1 billion in Series C Debentures and $900 million in Series D Debentures, both due in 2056. This strategic financial move is expected to bolster the company’s capital structure and potentially enhance its market position by securing long-term funding.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 09, 2025