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Duke Energy (DUK)
NYSE:DUK
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Duke Energy (DUK) AI Stock Analysis

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DUK

Duke Energy

(NYSE:DUK)

Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$135.00
â–²(11.93% Upside)
Duke Energy's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. The company's strategic investments and legislative achievements bolster its growth outlook. However, high debt levels and mixed cash flow performance pose potential risks. The technical analysis and valuation suggest the stock is fairly valued with moderate momentum.
Positive Factors
Earnings Growth
Solid investment opportunities across Duke Energy's footprint in attractive regulatory jurisdictions are driving potential upside risk to EPS growth.
Financial Stability
Duke Energy's long-term FFO/debt target has been raised to 15%, indicating financial stability and is above Moody’s and S&P downgrade thresholds.
Negative Factors
Interest and Operational Expenses
Higher utilities interest expense, O&M, OpEx, and parent drag partially offset the positive comp.
Macroeconomic and Policy Risks
Key risks include negative rate case filing results, pushback in clean energy policies, higher interest rates, and macroeconomic risks.

Duke Energy (DUK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Duke Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDuke Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, and Commercial Renewables. The Electric Utilities and Infrastructure segment generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in the Carolinas, Florida, and the Midwest; and uses coal, hydroelectric, natural gas, oil, renewable generation, and nuclear fuel to generate electricity. It also engages in the wholesale of electricity to municipalities, electric cooperative utilities, and load-serving entities. This segment serves approximately 8.2 million customers in 6 states in the Southeast and Midwest regions of the United States covering a service territory of approximately 91,000 square miles; and owns approximately 50,259 megawatts (MW) of generation capacity. The Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segment distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, industrial, and power generation natural gas customers; and owns, operates, and invests in pipeline transmission and natural gas storage facilities. It has approximately 1.6 million customers, including 1.1 million customers in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee, as well as 550,000 customers in southwestern Ohio and northern Kentucky. The Commercial Renewables segment acquires, owns, develops, builds, and operates wind and solar renewable generation projects, including nonregulated renewable energy and energy storage services to utilities, electric cooperatives, municipalities, and corporate customers. It has 23 wind, 178 solar, and 2 battery storage facilities, as well as 71 fuel cell locations with a capacity of 3,554 MW across 22 states. The company was formerly known as Duke Energy Holding Corp. and changed its name to Duke Energy Corporation in April 2005. The company was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.
How the Company Makes MoneyDuke Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company operates regulated utility businesses, which are granted the ability to earn a return on investments in infrastructure and receive cost recovery through regulated rates approved by state regulatory commissions. Key revenue streams include residential electricity sales, commercial and industrial electricity sales, and natural gas delivery services. Additionally, Duke Energy has invested in renewable energy projects, which can provide additional revenue through power purchase agreements and subsidies. The company often engages in partnerships with local governments and private entities to expand its energy infrastructure and enhance service delivery, thereby contributing to its overall earnings.

Duke Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Electric Utilities by Segment
Electric Utilities by Segment
Details revenue and performance across various electric utility segments, indicating operational strengths, customer base diversity, and market position.
Chart InsightsDuke Energy's residential and general service segments show consistent seasonal fluctuations, with notable peaks in Q3. The industrial segment is experiencing a gradual decline, while wholesale shows volatility. The recent earnings call highlights strategic investments and legislative wins, such as Brookfield's $6 billion investment and a $4 billion increase in Florida's capital plan, which are expected to bolster growth and credit profile. However, cautious customer behavior and increased expenses could temper near-term optimism. The company's focus on operational excellence and shareholder value remains strong, supported by legislative achievements.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Duke Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights significant positive developments, including strategic investments, successful asset sales, legislative achievements, and strong earnings growth. While there are some challenges related to expenses and cautious customer behavior, the overall sentiment is positive due to the strong financial position and strategic initiatives.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Brookfield Infrastructure's $6 Billion Investment
Brookfield Infrastructure made a $6 billion minority investment in Duke Energy's Florida business, strengthening the company's credit profile and enabling a $4 billion capital expansion in Florida.
Sale of Tennessee LDC Business
The sale of Tennessee LDC business to Spire for $2.5 billion at a premium valuation of 1.8x rate base, supporting capital funding needs.
Adjusted Earnings Per Share Growth
Reported adjusted earnings per share increased to $1.25 from $1.18 in 2024, driven by growth across Electric Utilities.
Economic Development Success
North Carolina was named the top state for business by CNBC, and Amazon Web Services announced a $10 billion investment in a new data center campus in North Carolina.
Legislative and Regulatory Achievements
Significant legislative achievements include the Power Bill Reduction Act in North Carolina, Energy Security Act in South Carolina, and House Bill 15 in Ohio, supporting economic growth and regulatory efficiency.
FFO to Debt Target Increase
Duke Energy raised its long-term FFO to debt target to 15%, providing substantial cushion above downgrade thresholds.
Negative Updates
Higher Planned O&M and Interest Expense
Electric Utilities segment faced partially offsetting growth due to higher planned O&M and interest expenses.
Cautious Customer Stance
Larger customers are adopting a cautious stance due to uncertainties, such as tariffs and tax policies, affecting production levels.
Company Guidance
During the Duke Energy Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided several key metrics and guidance updates. Duke Energy announced a $6 billion minority investment in their Florida business by Brookfield Infrastructure, which will enhance their credit profile and increase their Florida capital plan by $4 billion. The company is targeting an FFO to debt ratio of 15%, up by 100 basis points from previous targets. Duke Energy also reaffirmed its 2025 earnings per share (EPS) guidance range of $6.17 to $6.42, with a long-term EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2029. The second quarter adjusted EPS was reported at $1.25, up from $1.18 in 2024. Significant legislative and regulatory developments include the North Carolina Power Bill Reduction Act and the South Carolina Energy Security Act, which are expected to support credit profiles and minimize customer costs. Additionally, Duke Energy highlighted a $10 billion investment by Amazon Web Services for a data center in North Carolina, which will contribute to future growth.

Duke Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Duke Energy demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability, supported by efficient operations. However, the balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with high debt levels, and cash flow performance is mixed, indicating potential liquidity challenges.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Duke Energy demonstrates strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 8.6% and consistent profitability, evidenced by a healthy gross profit margin of 62.5% and a net profit margin of 15.5%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, indicating efficient operations. However, the slight decline in gross profit from the previous year suggests potential cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company maintains a stable equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.87, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity is solid at 9.6%, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds. However, the high level of total debt could pose risks if interest rates rise or cash flows decrease.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Duke Energy's operating cash flow remains strong, but the negative free cash flow and its ratio to net income highlight potential liquidity concerns. Despite a significant improvement in free cash flow growth, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio suggests challenges in converting earnings into cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue31.27B30.36B29.06B28.77B24.62B23.37B
Gross Profit14.44B15.20B13.76B12.98B11.96B11.35B
EBITDA15.64B15.00B13.87B12.36B11.86B8.50B
Net Income4.84B4.51B4.30B2.55B3.91B1.38B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets189.71B186.34B176.89B178.09B169.59B162.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments344.00M314.00M253.00M409.00M341.00M259.00M
Total Debt88.45B85.23B80.46B74.91B68.26B64.08B
Total Liabilities137.68B135.09B126.71B126.23B118.45B113.20B
Stockholders Equity50.89B50.13B49.11B49.32B49.30B47.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-563.00M48.00M-2.73B-5.44B-1.43B-1.05B
Operating Cash Flow11.94B12.33B9.88B5.93B8.29B8.86B
Investing Cash Flow-12.81B-13.12B-12.47B-11.97B-10.94B-10.60B
Financing Cash Flow830.00M859.00M2.35B6.13B2.61B1.73B

Duke Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price120.61
Price Trends
50DMA
120.21
Positive
100DMA
118.31
Positive
200DMA
114.67
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.20
Positive
RSI
43.24
Neutral
STOCH
14.22
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DUK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 120.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 123.02, above the 50-day MA of 120.21, and above the 200-day MA of 114.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.22 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DUK.

Duke Energy Risk Analysis

Duke Energy disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Duke Energy reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Duke Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$50.17B20.369.29%4.59%7.60%55.99%
74
Outperform
$58.88B16.1313.03%3.44%5.84%36.33%
73
Outperform
$93.99B19.869.60%3.48%4.07%9.94%
73
Outperform
$43.80B16.469.87%3.64%4.46%8.68%
71
Outperform
$68.39B17.538.31%4.39%-6.02%7.24%
66
Neutral
$17.25B17.995.54%3.64%6.63%11.55%
65
Neutral
$101.06B23.7212.89%3.18%8.53%-7.53%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
DUK
Duke Energy
120.61
7.63
6.75%
AEP
American Electric Power
108.11
8.13
8.13%
D
Dominion Energy
58.19
3.43
6.26%
EXC
Exelon
43.43
6.11
16.37%
NGG
National Grid Transco
70.10
4.32
6.57%
SO
Southern Co
91.78
5.36
6.20%

Duke Energy Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Duke Energy Issues $300M First Mortgage Bonds
Positive
May 15, 2025

On May 15, 2025, Duke Energy Indiana successfully completed the issuance and sale of $300 million in First Mortgage Bonds, Series CCCC, with a 5.90% interest rate, due in 2055. This financial move, executed under an underwriting agreement with several major financial institutions, is part of the company’s strategy to secure long-term financing, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and market positioning positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (DUK) stock is a Buy with a $135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Duke Energy stock, see the DUK Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025