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Duke Energy (DUK)
NYSE:DUK
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Duke Energy (DUK) AI Stock Analysis

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DUK

Duke Energy

(NYSE:DUK)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$131.00
â–²(9.39%Upside)
Duke Energy's strong financial performance and strategic initiatives highlight its solid position in the regulated electric industry. While technical analysis and valuation suggest stability, high leverage and cash flow challenges warrant attention. The positive earnings call and strategic partnerships provide a strong growth outlook, contributing to the overall score.
Positive Factors
Grid Infrastructure
Rising national focus on grid infrastructure and government support are positive tailwinds for Duke.
Investment and Growth
Duke Energy offers impressive growth potential with 5-year projected EPS growth of 6.8% and management has indicated the possibility of achieving the higher end of its 5-7% range.
Regulatory Progress
Duke Energy has been upgraded from Neutral to Buy as the stock has lagged more defensive peers and is making regulatory progress towards building significant generation.
Negative Factors
Economic Activity
Potential slowdown in industrial activity due to a slowing economy as well as supply chain cost implications from the trade tariffs implemented by the new administration.
Interest Rates and Expenses
Higher net electric interest expense, higher O&M, higher OpEx, and higher parent drag largely driven by higher debt/interest and share dilution.
Macroeconomic Risks
Key risks include negative rate case filing results, pushback in clean energy policies, higher interest rates, and macroeconomic risks.

Duke Energy (DUK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Duke Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDuke Energy Corporation (DUK) is one of the largest energy holding companies in the United States, headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina. The company operates primarily through its electric utilities and infrastructure segment, serving approximately 7.9 million retail electric customers in six states in the Southeast and Midwest. Duke Energy is involved in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity, with a diverse portfolio of power generation assets, including coal, natural gas, nuclear, and renewables. Additionally, the company engages in natural gas distribution services in select regions.
How the Company Makes MoneyDuke Energy generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income is from the sale of electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. This includes charges for energy usage, delivery, and related services. The company also earns revenue from its natural gas operations, which involve the distribution and sale of natural gas. Duke Energy's power generation assets, including its investments in renewable energy like wind and solar, contribute to its earnings by selling power to the grid or through power purchase agreements. The company benefits from regulated utility operations, which provide stable and predictable revenue through rates approved by state utility commissions. Additionally, Duke Energy engages in strategic partnerships and investments in infrastructure projects that support long-term growth and sustainability initiatives.

Duke Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Electric Utilities by Segment
Electric Utilities by Segment
Details revenue and performance across various electric utility segments, indicating operational strengths, customer base diversity, and market position.
Chart InsightsDuke Energy's residential and general service segments show consistent seasonal peaks, with recent data indicating a strong uptick in residential volumes, aligning with the company's reported customer growth in the Southeast and Indiana. The industrial segment remains stable, while wholesale sees fluctuations. The earnings call highlights Duke's strategic focus on infrastructure and partnerships, such as the Oconee nuclear station extension and GE turbine deal, positioning the company to meet future demand despite challenges like tariffs and interest expenses. This strategic positioning supports Duke's long-term growth outlook.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Duke Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 0.08%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Duke Energy's earnings call highlighted a strong start to the year with significant growth in earnings and strategic advancements in infrastructure and partnerships. While there are challenges related to tariffs and interest expenses, the company's robust pipeline and regulatory progress indicate a positive outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Start to 2025
Duke Energy announced first quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.76, a 22% increase over the first quarter of 2024, driven by top line growth in electric and gas utilities.
Nuclear Regulatory Approval
Received approval to extend the operating license for the Oconee nuclear station for an additional 20 years, securing over 2,600 megawatts of capacity into the 2050s.
Robust Economic Development Pipeline
Signed new letter agreements for nearly 1 gigawatt of data center projects, with continued growth in advanced manufacturing projects.
Strategic Partnership with GE
Announced a partnership with GE Vernova to secure up to 19 natural gas turbines, ensuring timely delivery of infrastructure to meet growing demand.
Positive Regulatory and Legislative Moves
Ongoing discussions and potential merger of DEC and DEP utilities expected to generate over $1 billion in savings for customers.
Negative Updates
Higher Interest Expense
The first quarter results were partially offset by higher interest expenses and depreciation.
Tariff Impact on Capital Plan
Tariffs estimated to impact 1% to 3% of the 5-year capital plan, though measures are being taken to minimize the effect.
Company Guidance
During Duke Energy's First Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reaffirmed its 2025 earnings guidance of $6.17 to $6.42 per share and projected a long-term EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2029. The first quarter adjusted earnings per share were reported at $1.76, marking an increase of $0.32 from the previous year, primarily due to top-line growth across electric and gas utilities. Duke Energy highlighted significant customer growth, particularly in the Southeast and Indiana, with residential volumes up by over 3%. The company anticipates load growth to accelerate beginning in 2027, driven by a robust pipeline of economic development projects, including advanced manufacturing and data centers. Duke Energy also emphasized its commitment to maintaining a strong credit profile, aiming for 14% FFO to debt in 2025. Additionally, strategic initiatives such as the extension of the Oconee nuclear station's operating license and partnerships to secure natural gas turbines underscore its focus on meeting future energy demands.

Duke Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Duke Energy exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue and profit growth, reflected by high profit margins and operational efficiency. However, high leverage and negative free cash flow pose potential risks that need careful management.
Income Statement
80
Positive
Duke Energy has shown consistent revenue growth with a TTM revenue of $30.94B, a 2.74% increase from 2024. The gross profit margin is robust at 66.07%, and the net profit margin stands at 15.40%, indicating strong profitability. The EBIT margin is 26.84%, and the EBITDA margin is 48.90%, reflecting efficient operational performance. Overall, the company exhibits strong financial health with steady revenue and profit growth.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio is 1.73, indicating a high leverage but manageable given the industry context. The return on equity (ROE) is 9.40%, showing a reasonable return on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio is 27.02%, suggesting a moderate level of stability. While the company has a strong asset base, the high debt level poses potential risks if not managed effectively.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
The free cash flow has decreased significantly, resulting in a negative free cash flow of -$208M in the TTM period, highlighting potential challenges in generating cash after capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.76 indicates a decent conversion of net income into operating cash flow. However, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio suggests room for improvement in cash generation.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue30.36B29.06B28.77B24.62B23.37B
Gross Profit15.20B13.76B12.98B11.96B11.35B
EBITDA15.00B13.29B12.40B11.63B8.01B
Net Income4.52B2.84B2.55B3.91B1.38B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets186.34B176.89B178.09B169.59B162.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments314.00M253.00M409.00M341.00M259.00M
Total Debt85.23B80.46B74.91B68.26B64.08B
Total Liabilities135.09B126.71B126.23B118.45B113.20B
Stockholders Equity50.13B49.11B49.32B49.30B47.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow48.00M-2.73B-5.44B-1.43B-1.05B
Operating Cash Flow12.35B9.88B5.93B8.29B8.86B
Investing Cash Flow-13.12B-12.47B-11.97B-10.94B-10.60B
Financing Cash Flow859.00M2.35B6.13B2.61B1.73B

Duke Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price119.75
Price Trends
50DMA
116.68
Positive
100DMA
117.51
Positive
200DMA
113.91
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.78
Negative
RSI
58.94
Neutral
STOCH
67.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DUK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 119.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 117.97, above the 50-day MA of 116.68, and above the 200-day MA of 113.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DUK.

Duke Energy Risk Analysis

Duke Energy disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Duke Energy reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Duke Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$93.08B19.939.48%3.49%5.02%45.08%
73
Outperform
$43.90B16.1310.10%3.57%6.71%16.09%
71
Outperform
$41.82B21.3710.26%3.08%-0.44%2.14%
70
Outperform
$104.55B22.8114.01%3.05%9.58%8.02%
69
Neutral
$49.71B21.878.22%4.54%3.62%40.33%
68
Neutral
$58.17B21.0110.41%3.37%4.20%-3.64%
67
Neutral
$16.88B17.114.48%3.27%4.75%6.12%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
DUK
Duke Energy
119.75
16.10
15.53%
AEP
American Electric Power
108.97
16.60
17.97%
D
Dominion Energy
58.75
8.86
17.76%
EXC
Exelon
43.74
8.63
24.58%
SO
Southern Co
95.00
16.02
20.28%
XEL
Xcel Energy
72.78
17.78
32.33%

Duke Energy Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Duke Energy Issues $300M First Mortgage Bonds
Positive
May 15, 2025

On May 15, 2025, Duke Energy Indiana successfully completed the issuance and sale of $300 million in First Mortgage Bonds, Series CCCC, with a 5.90% interest rate, due in 2055. This financial move, executed under an underwriting agreement with several major financial institutions, is part of the company’s strategy to secure long-term financing, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and market positioning positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (DUK) stock is a Buy with a $135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Duke Energy stock, see the DUK Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 10, 2025