Duke Energy (DUK)
NYSE:DUK
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Duke Energy
(NYSE:DUK)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$145.00
â–²(11.20% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is supported by improving earnings and a generally positive outlook from the latest earnings call, plus constructive price momentum and a solid dividend. The main constraints are rising leverage and historically inconsistent free cash flow, which increase sensitivity to financing conditions as the large capital plan ramps.
Positive Factors
Regulated rate-base model
Duke’s regulated, multi-state utility model creates durable revenue and margin predictability: approved rate bases and riders allow recovery of capital and many costs, supporting steady cash flow and earnings as long-lived infrastructure is added to rate base, reducing cyclicality versus merchant generation.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
Rapid debt growth materially constrains financial flexibility and increases interest‑rate and refinancing sensitivity across the multi‑year buildout. Higher leverage limits cushion for setbacks, may pressure ratings and raises the effective cost of capital for remaining project financings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated rate-base model
Duke’s regulated, multi-state utility model creates durable revenue and margin predictability: approved rate bases and riders allow recovery of capital and many costs, supporting steady cash flow and earnings as long-lived infrastructure is added to rate base, reducing cyclicality versus merchant generation.
Read all positive factors
Duke Energy (DUK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$102.55B
Dividend Yield3.61%
Average Volume (3M)4.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.3
Beta (1Y)-0.10
Revenue Growth4.80%
EPS Growth14.44%
CountryUS
Employees26,413
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.50
Shares Outstanding778,117,600
10 Day Avg. Volume3,235,708
30 Day Avg. Volume4,341,561
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.74
Price to Book (P/B)1.76
Price to Sales (P/S)2.83
P/FCF Ratio-54.47
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.87
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.92
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.23
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$139.64Price Target Upside7.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)6.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$33.01B
Duke Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Duke Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, and Commercial Renewables. Th...
How the Company Makes Money
Duke Energy primarily makes money through regulated utility operations. Most revenue comes from selling electricity to end-use customers within state-regulated service territories via retail rates set (or periodically reset) through public utility...
Duke Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Electric Utilities by Segment
Details revenue and performance across various electric utility segments, indicating operational strengths, customer base diversity, and market position.
Details revenue and performance across various electric utility segments, indicating operational strengths, customer base diversity, and market position.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDuke Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational execution, above-guidance 2025 results (EPS +7%), an increased and well-articulated capital plan ($103B) designed to drive ~9.6% earnings base growth, constructive regulatory progress, and material data center contract wins (4.5 GW ESAs with a ~9 GW late-stage pipeline). These positives are balanced against execution and timing risks tied to the large buildout, near-term financing needs (including $10B equity planned), FFO-to-debt pressure into 2026 (~14%) before a 15% target, and regulatory/affordability scrutiny. Overall, the strength of results, clear growth cadence toward an EPS inflection in 2028, and steps to shore up credit and protections for customers make the call broadly positive despite notable risks.Positive Updates
Solid 2025 Financial Performance
Reported and adjusted EPS of $6.31 for 2025, a 7% increase year-over-year and above the guidance midpoint; 2026 EPS guidance set at $6.55 to $6.80.
Negative Updates
Timing and Execution Risk of Large Buildout
The ambitious $103 billion capital plan and 14 GW of near-term capacity additions create execution and supply-chain risk; successful programmatic EPC execution is critical and delays in data center ramp timing could push the EPS inflection later.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid 2025 Financial Performance
Reported and adjusted EPS of $6.31 for 2025, a 7% increase year-over-year and above the guidance midpoint; 2026 EPS guidance set at $6.55 to $6.80.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Duke gave 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55–$6.80 (after 2025 reported/adjusted EPS of $6.31, +7% y/y and above the 2025 guidance midpoint ≈$6.30) and extended its 5%–7% long‑term EPS growth target through 2030, saying it expects to earn in the top half (≈6%–7%) beginning in 2028. Management raised the five‑year capital plan by $6 billion to $103 billion (an 18% increase vs. the prior plan), which it says drives 9.6% earnings‑based growth through 2030 (≈+150 bps vs. prior), funds ~14 GW of incremental capacity over five years (including 5 GW of new gas, ~4.5 GW of battery additions through 2031 and a 100 MW battery already installed), and supports 4.5 GW of signed data‑center ESAs (≈9 GW late‑stage pipeline). Other key metrics: 2026 retail sales growth assumed at 1.5%–2% with normal weather; 2025 FFO/debt was 14.8% and 2026 is forecast ≈14% with a 15% long‑term target; financing includes $10 billion equity in 2027–2030 (~35% equity funding), nearly $3 billion of storm costs recovered/securitized, >$1 billion of capital deployed per month, and Brookfield/Tennessee/Florida transactions expected to be earnings‑neutral and strengthen the balance sheet (net five‑year rate base CAGR excluding the Florida minority investment ≈8.8%).Duke Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 32.24B | 30.36B | 29.06B | 28.77B | 24.62B |
| Gross Profit | 10.17B | 15.20B | 13.76B | 12.98B | 11.96B |
| EBITDA | 15.67B | 15.00B | 13.87B | 12.36B | 11.86B |
| Net Income | 4.97B | 4.51B | 4.30B | 2.55B | 3.91B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 195.74B | 186.34B | 176.89B | 178.09B | 169.59B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 245.00M | 314.00M | 253.00M | 409.00M | 341.00M |
| Total Debt | 90.87B | 85.23B | 80.46B | 74.91B | 68.26B |
| Total Liabilities | 142.72B | 135.09B | 126.71B | 126.23B | 118.45B |
| Stockholders Equity | 51.84B | 50.13B | 49.11B | 49.32B | 49.30B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.67B | 48.00M | -2.73B | -5.44B | -1.43B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 12.35B | 12.33B | 9.88B | 5.93B | 8.29B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.36B | -13.12B | -12.47B | -11.97B | -10.94B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.95B | 859.00M | 2.35B | 6.13B | 2.61B |
Duke Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
130.40
Price Trends
128.43
Positive
122.97
Positive
121.55
Positive
Market Momentum
0.88
Positive
50.73
Neutral
49.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DUK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 130.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 130.59, above the 50-day MA of 128.43, and above the 200-day MA of 121.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.88 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DUK.
Duke Energy Risk Analysis
Duke Energy disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Duke Energy reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Duke Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $74.09B | 16.71 | 12.06% | 3.25% | 7.66% | 37.42% | |
74 Outperform | $90.53B | 21.62 | 7.66% | 4.03% | -7.06% | 38.21% | |
71 Outperform | $102.55B | 18.33 | 9.69% | 3.61% | 4.80% | 14.44% | |
66 Neutral | $108.75B | 22.16 | 12.50% | 3.40% | 9.40% | -6.05% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $49.68B | 15.92 | 9.87% | 3.68% | 6.07% | 15.20% | |
56 Neutral | $56.46B | 21.35 | 10.77% | 4.59% | 12.72% | 4.90% |
* Utilities Sector Average
DUK
Duke Energy
130.40
14.03
12.06%
AEP
American Electric Power
134.46
31.23
30.25%
D
Dominion Energy
62.97
11.67
22.76%
EXC
Exelon
48.15
3.02
6.68%
NGG
National Grid Transco
88.95
20.92
30.75%
SO
Southern Co
95.93
7.80
8.85%
Duke Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Duke Energy Subsidiary Completes Tennessee Gas Business Sale
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
Piedmont Natural Gas, a wholly owned Duke Energy subsidiary, completed the sale of its Tennessee natural gas local distribution company business to Spire Tennessee Inc. for $2.48 billion in cash on March 31, 2026, following a purchase agreement si...
Private Placements and Financing
Duke Energy Completes $1.5 Billion Convertible Notes Offering
Neutral
Mar 12, 2026
On March 12, 2026, Duke Energy completed a $1.5 billion private offering of 3.000% Convertible Senior Notes due 2029 to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A. The senior unsecured notes, which cannot be redeemed early by the company, pay ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Duke Energy Upsizes Convertible Notes Offering to Refinance Debt
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
On March 10, 2026, Duke Energy priced an upsized private offering of $1.3 billion of 3.000% convertible senior notes due 2029, increased from a previously planned $1 billion, and granted initial purchasers an option for an additional $200 million....
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Duke Energy Announces $1 Billion Convertible Notes Offering
Neutral
Mar 9, 2026
On March 9, 2026, Duke Energy announced a proposed private offering of $1 billion in convertible senior notes due 2029, with an option for initial purchasers to buy an additional $150 million, targeting qualified institutional buyers under Rule 14...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Duke Energy Indiana Completes $500 Million Bond Issuance
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
On March 6, 2026, Duke Energy Indiana completed a $500 million issuance and sale of First Mortgage Bonds, Series DDDD, carrying a 4.95% coupon and maturing March 15, 2036, under an underwriting agreement signed March 4, 2026. The bonds, issued at ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Duke Energy Launches $6 Billion At-The-Market Equity Program
Neutral
Mar 6, 2026
On March 6, 2026, Duke Energy Corporation established a new at-the-market equity distribution program, entering into an Equity Distribution Agreement with a syndicate of banks and broker-dealers that will act as sales agents to sell up to $6 billi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.