Duke Energy (DUK) AI Stock Analysis

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Duke Energy

(NYSE:DUK)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:71Outperform

Price Target:

$135.00

▲(4.71% Upside)

Action:ReiteratedDate:02/11/26

DUK’s score is driven by improving profitability and a broadly positive earnings outlook with clear growth initiatives, supported by constructive technical momentum. The main constraints are rising leverage and historically inconsistent free cash flow, alongside financing and execution risks tied to the expanded capital plan.

Positive Factors

Earnings Growth

Consistent earnings growth indicates robust operational performance and effective cost management, supporting long-term financial stability.

Capital Investment Plan

The significant capital investment plan positions Duke Energy for future growth, enhancing infrastructure and expanding capacity, driving long-term earnings.

Regulatory Support

Regulatory support through settlements and rate implementations provides a stable revenue base, aiding in predictable long-term growth.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Cash Flow Challenges

Challenges in generating free cash flow may strain financial resources, affecting the ability to fund operations and future investments.

Interest Expense Impact

Rising interest expenses can erode profitability and cash flow, posing a risk to financial health and limiting investment capacity.

Duke Energy (DUK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$99.90B

Dividend Yield3.61%

Average Volume (3M)4.46M

Price to Earnings (P/E)20.3

Beta (1Y)-0.12

Revenue Growth4.80%

EPS Growth14.44%

CountryUS

Employees26,413

SectorUtilities

Sector Strength65

IndustryRegulated Electric

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.50

Shares Outstanding777,661,200

10 Day Avg. Volume4,665,599

30 Day Avg. Volume4,462,090

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio1.74

Price to Book (P/B)1.76

Price to Sales (P/S)2.83

P/FCF Ratio7.39

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.91

Enterprise Value/Revenue5.90

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.91

Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.18

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$133.64

Price Target Upside3.65% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering14

EPS Forecast (FY)6.7

Revenue Forecast (FY)$32.89B

Duke Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDuke Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, and Commercial Renewables. The Electric Utilities and Infrastructure segment generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in the Carolinas, Florida, and the Midwest; and uses coal, hydroelectric, natural gas, oil, renewable generation, and nuclear fuel to generate electricity. It also engages in the wholesale of electricity to municipalities, electric cooperative utilities, and load-serving entities. This segment serves approximately 8.2 million customers in 6 states in the Southeast and Midwest regions of the United States covering a service territory of approximately 91,000 square miles; and owns approximately 50,259 megawatts (MW) of generation capacity. The Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segment distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, industrial, and power generation natural gas customers; and owns, operates, and invests in pipeline transmission and natural gas storage facilities. It has approximately 1.6 million customers, including 1.1 million customers in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee, as well as 550,000 customers in southwestern Ohio and northern Kentucky. The Commercial Renewables segment acquires, owns, develops, builds, and operates wind and solar renewable generation projects, including nonregulated renewable energy and energy storage services to utilities, electric cooperatives, municipalities, and corporate customers. It has 23 wind, 178 solar, and 2 battery storage facilities, as well as 71 fuel cell locations with a capacity of 3,554 MW across 22 states. The company was formerly known as Duke Energy Holding Corp. and changed its name to Duke Energy Corporation in April 2005. The company was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

How the Company Makes MoneyDuke Energy makes money primarily through the sale of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company's revenue model is largely based on a regulated utility framework, where it earns a return on investment through rates set by state regulatory commissions. Key revenue streams include retail electricity sales, natural gas distribution, and infrastructure investments. Duke Energy has significant partnerships with local and state governments to develop renewable energy projects, which can enhance revenue through incentives and subsidies. Furthermore, the company is involved in various energy efficiency programs and demand response initiatives that help to stabilize revenue during periods of fluctuating energy demand, contributing to its overall financial stability.

Duke Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Electric Utilities by Segment

Electric Utilities by Segment
Details revenue and performance across various electric utility segments, indicating operational strengths, customer base diversity, and market position.

Chart InsightsDuke Energy's residential and general service segments show consistent growth, aligning with their strategic focus on expanding electric utilities. The recent earnings call highlights a robust capital investment plan, expected to drive significant capacity expansion and earnings growth. The industrial and wholesale segments are stable, but face challenges from increased interest expenses and storm recovery costs. However, the company's proactive economic development efforts, including agreements with data centers, indicate strong future demand. Regulatory support further bolsters Duke's growth trajectory, despite the financial pressures from storm-related expenses.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Duke Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call conveyed strong operational execution, above-guidance 2025 results (EPS +7%), an increased and well-articulated capital plan ($103B) designed to drive ~9.6% earnings base growth, constructive regulatory progress, and material data center contract wins (4.5 GW ESAs with a ~9 GW late-stage pipeline). These positives are balanced against execution and timing risks tied to the large buildout, near-term financing needs (including $10B equity planned), FFO-to-debt pressure into 2026 (~14%) before a 15% target, and regulatory/affordability scrutiny. Overall, the strength of results, clear growth cadence toward an EPS inflection in 2028, and steps to shore up credit and protections for customers make the call broadly positive despite notable risks.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Solid 2025 Financial Performance

Reported and adjusted EPS of $6.31 for 2025, a 7% increase year-over-year and above the guidance midpoint; 2026 EPS guidance set at $6.55 to $6.80.

Extended Long-Term Growth Outlook

Company extended its 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth target through 2030 (off the 2025 guidance midpoint) and expressed confidence in earning in the top half of that range beginning in 2028.

Largest Regulated Five-Year Capital Plan

Announced a $103 billion five-year capital plan (an increase of $6 billion, ~18% vs prior plan) expected to drive 9.6% earnings-based CAGR through 2030 (up ~150 bps vs prior plan).

Improved Balance Sheet and Cash Metrics

Recovered and securitized nearly $3 billion of storm costs; 2025 FFO to debt improved to 14.8% with a 2026 forecast of ~14% and a long-term target of 15%.

Advancing Generation and Storage

Adding ~14 GW incremental capacity over the next five years; installed a 100 MW battery (largest on system to date) and plan ~4.5 GW of battery additions through 2031; broke ground on 5 GW of new natural gas in The Carolinas and Indiana and secured long-lead equipment and workforce contracts.

Economic Development / Data Center Wins

Signed an additional 1.5 GW of electric service agreements (ESAs) since Q3; now ~4.5 GW of data center load secured under ESAs (customers include Microsoft and Compass) with a late-stage pipeline of ~9 GW, supporting an expected load-driven earnings inflection in 2028.

Constructive Regulatory Outcomes

Comprehensive settlements and South Carolina rate case orders fully approved; multiyear rate plans in multiple jurisdictions (NC, FL, IN) and grid riders support timely cost recovery and revenue visibility.

Credit and Strategic Transactions

Transactions (Brookfield minority investment in Duke Energy Florida; sale of Piedmont Tennessee to Spire) expected to strengthen credit profile, satisfy near-term equity needs and provide proceeds to support capital plan.

Operational Resilience and Customer Focus

Responded to recent winter storms with ~95% of ~200,000 outages restored within 24 hours; emphasized keeping rate changes below inflation on average over the last decade and use of affordability tools (securitization, CWIP, tax credits).

Negative Updates

Timing and Execution Risk of Large Buildout

The ambitious $103 billion capital plan and 14 GW of near-term capacity additions create execution and supply-chain risk; successful programmatic EPC execution is critical and delays in data center ramp timing could push the EPS inflection later.

Earnings and Funding Dilution

Plan assumes $10 billion of equity issuance in 2027–2030 (about 35% equity funding of the capital plan), implying dilution and financing complexity; higher financing costs expected to pressure the 'other' segment.

FFO to Debt Near-Term Pressure

FFO to debt fell from 14.8% in 2025 to a forecasted ~14% in 2026 before aiming for a 15% longer-term target, reflecting near-term pressure despite improvement.

Regulatory and Affordability Risks

Affordability concerns among policymakers and public scrutiny could complicate rate cases and settlements (notably in North Carolina), and certain regulatory changes (large-load tariffs or other measures) could affect future economics.

Storm Cost Uncertainty

Recent winter storm costs are still being compiled (200,000 outages, ~95% restored in 24 hours); while recovery mechanisms exist and guidance is not expected to be impacted, final cost recovery details remain pending.

Net Rate Base Growth Lowered by Minority Investments

The reported 9.6% rate base CAGR is gross of expected minority interest investments; after the Duke Energy Florida (DEF) minority investment, the five-year CAGR would be ~8.8% on a net basis, reducing net rate base growth.

Concentration of Load Growth on Data Centers

Data centers are an increasingly large portion of economic development load (estimated ~75% of economic development by 2030); heavy reliance on hyperscale customers increases revenue concentration and timing sensitivity.

Company Guidance

Duke gave 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55–$6.80 (after 2025 reported/adjusted EPS of $6.31, +7% y/y and above the 2025 guidance midpoint ≈$6.30) and extended its 5%–7% long‑term EPS growth target through 2030, saying it expects to earn in the top half (≈6%–7%) beginning in 2028. Management raised the five‑year capital plan by $6 billion to $103 billion (an 18% increase vs. the prior plan), which it says drives 9.6% earnings‑based growth through 2030 (≈+150 bps vs. prior), funds ~14 GW of incremental capacity over five years (including 5 GW of new gas, ~4.5 GW of battery additions through 2031 and a 100 MW battery already installed), and supports 4.5 GW of signed data‑center ESAs (≈9 GW late‑stage pipeline). Other key metrics: 2026 retail sales growth assumed at 1.5%–2% with normal weather; 2025 FFO/debt was 14.8% and 2026 is forecast ≈14% with a 15% long‑term target; financing includes $10 billion equity in 2027–2030 (~35% equity funding), nearly $3 billion of storm costs recovered/securitized, >$1 billion of capital deployed per month, and Brookfield/Tennessee/Florida transactions expected to be earnings‑neutral and strengthen the balance sheet (net five‑year rate base CAGR excluding the Florida minority investment ≈8.8%).

Duke Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement trends are solid with steady revenue growth and improved net margin in 2025, but the balance sheet is increasingly leverage-heavy (debt rising faster than equity) and free cash flow has been historically volatile with a large 2025 swing that reduces confidence in consistency.

Income Statement

Positive

Revenue has grown steadily over the last several years, reaching $32.2B in 2025 (annual) versus $23.4B in 2020, with generally stable profitability. Net margin improved versus the weaker 2020–2022 period, rising to ~15.4% in 2025 (annual) from ~8.9% in 2022, and net income increased to $5.0B. EBITDA margin remains solid and fairly consistent (~48% in 2025), supporting earnings stability typical of a regulated utility. A key weakness is that the provided 2025 EBIT margin is shown as 0.0 (likely a data issue), which reduces confidence in operating-profit trend analysis for the most recent year.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a leverage-heavy capital structure that has been rising over time: total debt increased to $90.9B in 2025 (annual) from $64.1B in 2020, with debt-to-equity moving up to ~1.75 from ~1.34. Equity has grown modestly (to $51.8B), but debt growth has outpaced it, keeping financial flexibility more constrained. Return on equity has improved versus 2020–2022 (up to ~9.6% in 2025 from ~2.9% in 2020), which is a positive, but the higher leverage is the main balance-sheet risk.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Operating cash flow has strengthened materially, reaching ~$12.33B in 2025 (annual) versus ~$5.93B in 2022, indicating improving cash generation. However, free cash flow has been volatile and often negative (2020–2023), with a near-breakeven 2024 (~$0.05B) followed by a sharp jump to $12.33B in 2025 (annual). The swing suggests cash flow is sensitive to timing and/or investment cycles. Cash generation versus accounting earnings is mixed: free cash flow relative to net income was negative in multiple years, near zero in 2024, then strong in 2025, making consistency the primary weakness.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	32.24B	30.36B	29.06B	28.77B	24.62B
Gross Profit	10.17B	15.20B	13.76B	12.98B	11.96B
EBITDA	15.67B	15.00B	13.87B	12.36B	11.86B
Net Income	4.97B	4.51B	4.30B	2.55B	3.91B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	195.74B	186.34B	176.89B	178.09B	169.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	245.00M	314.00M	253.00M	409.00M	341.00M
Total Debt	90.87B	85.23B	80.46B	74.91B	68.26B
Total Liabilities	142.72B	135.09B	126.71B	126.23B	118.45B
Stockholders Equity	51.84B	50.13B	49.11B	49.32B	49.30B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	12.33B	48.00M	-2.73B	-5.44B	-1.43B
Operating Cash Flow	12.33B	12.33B	9.88B	5.93B	8.29B
Investing Cash Flow	-14.34B	-13.12B	-12.47B	-11.97B	-10.94B
Financing Cash Flow	1.95B	859.00M	2.35B	6.13B	2.61B

Duke Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price128.93

Price Trends

50DMA

119.37

Positive

100DMA

120.58

Positive

200DMA

118.69

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

2.62

Negative

RSI

70.94

Negative

STOCH

90.49

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DUK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 128.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 123.69, above the 50-day MA of 119.37, and above the 200-day MA of 118.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.62 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.94 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.49 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DUK.

Duke Energy Risk Analysis

Duke Energy disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Duke Energy reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Duke Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (66)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AEP	80 Outperform	$71.60B	19.88	12.33%	3.25%	7.66%	37.42%
NGG	74 Outperform	$92.63B	24.54	7.53%	4.03%	-7.06%	38.21%
DUK	71 Outperform	$99.90B	20.32	9.74%	3.61%	4.80%	14.44%
SO	68 Neutral	$107.25B	24.48	12.54%	3.40%	9.40%	-6.05%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
EXC	65 Neutral	$49.70B	17.76	9.94%	3.68%	6.07%	15.20%
D	63 Neutral	$56.01B	18.46	10.63%	4.59%	12.72%	4.90%

* Utilities Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DUK

Duke Energy

128.93

17.00

15.19%

AEP

American Electric Power

132.46

30.70

30.16%

Dominion Energy

63.57

9.66

17.92%

EXC

Exelon

48.70

6.05

14.19%

NGG

National Grid Transco

93.93

35.02

59.44%

Southern Co

95.92

10.44

12.21%

Duke Energy Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes

Duke Energy Announces Leadership Transition Plans

Neutral

Dec 12, 2025

On December 12, 2025, Duke Energy announced the retirement of Cynthia S. Lee, its Senior Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer, and Controller, effective December 31, 2026. Abigail L. Motsinger has been appointed to succeed her, effective March 1, 2026. Motsinger, who has been with Duke Energy since 2010, will transition from her current role as Vice President, Investor Relations. Her new compensation package includes a base salary and incentive opportunities, reflecting her elevated responsibilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (DUK) stock is a Buy with a $126.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Duke Energy stock, see the DUK Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 11, 2026