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Duke Energy (DUK)
NYSE:DUK
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Duke Energy (DUK) AI Stock Analysis

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DUK

Duke Energy

(NYSE:DUK)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$136.00
â–²(9.68% Upside)
Duke Energy's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and a positive earnings call outlook. However, high debt levels and mixed technical indicators present risks. The valuation suggests potential overvaluation, balanced by a solid dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates robust demand for Duke Energy's services, supporting long-term financial stability and market position.
Capital Investment Plan
The substantial capital plan enhances infrastructure, supporting future growth and strengthening Duke Energy's competitive edge in the industry.
Regulatory Support
Positive regulatory developments ensure stable revenue streams and facilitate Duke Energy's strategic initiatives, bolstering long-term growth.
Negative Factors
High Debt Levels
High debt levels may strain financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to interest rate hikes, impacting long-term sustainability.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Challenges in converting earnings into cash could limit Duke Energy's ability to fund operations and investments, affecting growth prospects.
Interest Expenses
Rising interest expenses can erode profitability and limit Duke Energy's capacity to invest in growth initiatives, affecting long-term performance.

Duke Energy (DUK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Duke Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDuke Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, and Commercial Renewables. The Electric Utilities and Infrastructure segment generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in the Carolinas, Florida, and the Midwest; and uses coal, hydroelectric, natural gas, oil, renewable generation, and nuclear fuel to generate electricity. It also engages in the wholesale of electricity to municipalities, electric cooperative utilities, and load-serving entities. This segment serves approximately 8.2 million customers in 6 states in the Southeast and Midwest regions of the United States covering a service territory of approximately 91,000 square miles; and owns approximately 50,259 megawatts (MW) of generation capacity. The Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segment distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, industrial, and power generation natural gas customers; and owns, operates, and invests in pipeline transmission and natural gas storage facilities. It has approximately 1.6 million customers, including 1.1 million customers in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee, as well as 550,000 customers in southwestern Ohio and northern Kentucky. The Commercial Renewables segment acquires, owns, develops, builds, and operates wind and solar renewable generation projects, including nonregulated renewable energy and energy storage services to utilities, electric cooperatives, municipalities, and corporate customers. It has 23 wind, 178 solar, and 2 battery storage facilities, as well as 71 fuel cell locations with a capacity of 3,554 MW across 22 states. The company was formerly known as Duke Energy Holding Corp. and changed its name to Duke Energy Corporation in April 2005. The company was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.
How the Company Makes MoneyDuke Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company operates regulated utility businesses, which are granted the ability to earn a return on investments in infrastructure and receive cost recovery through regulated rates approved by state regulatory commissions. Key revenue streams include residential electricity sales, commercial and industrial electricity sales, and natural gas delivery services. Additionally, Duke Energy has invested in renewable energy projects, which can provide additional revenue through power purchase agreements and subsidies. The company often engages in partnerships with local governments and private entities to expand its energy infrastructure and enhance service delivery, thereby contributing to its overall earnings.

Duke Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Electric Utilities by Segment
Electric Utilities by Segment
Details revenue and performance across various electric utility segments, indicating operational strengths, customer base diversity, and market position.
Chart InsightsDuke Energy's residential and general service segments show consistent seasonal fluctuations, with notable peaks in Q3. The industrial segment is experiencing a gradual decline, while wholesale shows volatility. The recent earnings call highlights strategic investments and legislative wins, such as Brookfield's $6 billion investment and a $4 billion increase in Florida's capital plan, which are expected to bolster growth and credit profile. However, cautious customer behavior and increased expenses could temper near-term optimism. The company's focus on operational excellence and shareholder value remains strong, supported by legislative achievements.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Duke Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call provided a mostly positive outlook with significant growth in earnings and capital investment plans, strong economic contributions, and successful regulatory outcomes. However, there are challenges related to increased interest expenses and storm cost recovery.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Earnings Growth
Duke Energy reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.81 for Q3 2025, an increase of over 11% compared to $1.62 last year, driven by higher retail sales volumes and the implementation of new rates.
Record-Breaking Capital Plan
The company announced a 5-year capital plan between $95 billion and $105 billion, marking the largest investment plan in the industry, with earnings base growth expected to exceed 8.5% through 2030.
Significant Economic Impact
Duke Energy's investment plan is expected to contribute over $370 billion in economic output, support nearly 170,000 jobs annually, and add more than $200 billion to GDP for the communities served.
Large-Load Economic Development
The company signed about 3 gigawatts of electric service agreements with data centers this year, with more than $11 billion in capital commitments from other commercial and industrial customers, expected to create 25,000 jobs.
Positive Regulatory Developments
Constructive settlements in South Carolina rate cases and the expectation of implementation of new rates in North Carolina and Florida indicate regulatory support for growth.
Negative Updates
Increased Interest Expenses
Higher interest expenses have impacted the other segments, reflecting costs associated with executing growing investment plans.
Storm Cost Recovery Challenges
Despite timely recovery processes, ongoing recovery from historic storm seasons necessitates careful financial management and has influenced customer billing.
Company Guidance
During Duke Energy's Third Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided revised guidance and several key metrics. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were reported at $1.81, up from $1.62 the previous year, reflecting over 11% growth driven by electric utilities. Duke Energy narrowed its full-year EPS guidance range to $6.25 to $6.35 and reaffirmed a long-term EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2029, with confidence in achieving the top half of this range by 2028. The company outlined a new 5-year capital plan between $95 billion and $105 billion, highlighting a record generation build that will add over 13 gigawatts of capacity in the next five years. This investment is expected to drive earnings base growth of more than 8.5% through 2030. Duke Energy also discussed potential savings initiatives, including the combination of Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress utilities and storm cost securitization, which are anticipated to save customers significantly. Additionally, the company's economic development efforts have resulted in over $11 billion in capital commitments from commercial and industrial customers in 2025, which includes approximately 3 gigawatts of signed electric service agreements with data centers.

Duke Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Duke Energy demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability, supported by efficient operations. However, the balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with high debt levels, and cash flow performance is mixed, indicating potential liquidity challenges.
Income Statement
Duke Energy demonstrates strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 8.6% and consistent profitability, evidenced by a healthy gross profit margin of 62.5% and a net profit margin of 15.5%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, indicating efficient operations. However, the slight decline in gross profit from the previous year suggests potential cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a stable equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.87, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity is solid at 9.6%, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds. However, the high level of total debt could pose risks if interest rates rise or cash flows decrease.
Cash Flow
Duke Energy's operating cash flow remains strong, but the negative free cash flow and its ratio to net income highlight potential liquidity concerns. Despite a significant improvement in free cash flow growth, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio suggests challenges in converting earnings into cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue31.27B30.36B29.06B28.77B24.62B23.37B
Gross Profit14.44B15.20B13.76B12.98B11.96B11.35B
EBITDA15.64B15.00B13.87B12.36B11.86B8.50B
Net Income4.84B4.51B4.30B2.55B3.91B1.38B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets189.71B186.34B176.89B178.09B169.59B162.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments344.00M314.00M253.00M409.00M341.00M259.00M
Total Debt88.45B85.23B80.46B74.91B68.26B64.08B
Total Liabilities137.68B135.09B126.71B126.23B118.45B113.20B
Stockholders Equity50.89B50.13B49.11B49.32B49.30B47.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-563.00M48.00M-2.73B-5.44B-1.43B-1.05B
Operating Cash Flow11.94B12.33B9.88B5.93B8.29B8.86B
Investing Cash Flow-12.81B-13.12B-12.47B-11.97B-10.94B-10.60B
Financing Cash Flow830.00M859.00M2.35B6.13B2.61B1.73B

Duke Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price124.00
Price Trends
50DMA
123.94
Positive
100DMA
121.66
Positive
200DMA
118.38
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.16
Positive
RSI
44.50
Neutral
STOCH
25.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DUK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 124 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 126.43, above the 50-day MA of 123.94, and above the 200-day MA of 118.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DUK.

Duke Energy Risk Analysis

Duke Energy disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Duke Energy reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Duke Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$75.00B19.178.31%4.03%-6.02%7.24%
72
Outperform
$64.10B17.5212.85%3.20%7.66%37.42%
72
Outperform
$46.62B16.5210.31%3.36%6.07%15.20%
69
Neutral
$100.65B22.7213.06%2.99%9.40%-6.05%
69
Neutral
$96.25B20.249.60%3.39%4.07%9.94%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
63
Neutral
$50.97B20.319.27%4.53%12.72%4.90%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
DUK
Duke Energy
124.00
14.81
13.56%
AEP
American Electric Power
119.53
25.64
27.31%
D
Dominion Energy
60.50
5.34
9.68%
EXC
Exelon
45.71
8.62
23.24%
NGG
National Grid Transco
76.29
15.14
24.76%
SO
Southern Co
90.90
5.13
5.98%

Duke Energy Corporate Events

Duke Energy Reports Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Growth
Nov 8, 2025

Duke Energy, a leading energy holding company in the United States, operates in the electric and natural gas sectors, serving millions of customers across several states. The company is known for its significant energy capacity and commitment to modernizing energy infrastructure.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Duke Energy Completes $1.75 Billion Senior Notes Sale
Positive
Sep 11, 2025

On September 11, 2025, Duke Energy Corporation completed the issuance and sale of $1.75 billion in senior notes, consisting of $1 billion of 4.95% Senior Notes due 2035 and $750 million of 5.70% Senior Notes due 2055. This strategic financial move, executed with several major underwriters, is expected to bolster the company’s financial position and support its ongoing operations and growth initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (DUK) stock is a Buy with a $132.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Duke Energy stock, see the DUK Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 08, 2025