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Xcel Energy
(NASDAQ:XEL)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$84.00
â–²(3.60% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/24/26
The score is driven primarily by stable regulated profitability but moderated by elevated leverage and notably volatile cash generation (including a sharp TTM operating cash flow drop). Technicals point to a neutral/sideways setup with soft momentum, while valuation is fair rather than cheap. The earnings call adds support through reaffirmed guidance and a large, visible investment and data-center growth pipeline, tempered by regulatory, financing-cost, and wildfire-liability risks.
Positive Factors
Regulated rate‑base model
Xcel’s core earnings derive from regulated returns on invested utility infrastructure. As new generation, transmission and distribution assets are placed in service they expand rate base, creating predictable, commission‑backed cash flow and durable earnings visibility over multi‑year capital cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Interest‑bearing debt near $38B and a high debt/equity ratio limit financial flexibility. Sustained large capex increases leverage sensitivity to rising rates and regulatory timing, increasing refinancing risk and the potential need for dilutive equity or higher financing costs ahead of future rate recoveries.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated rate‑base model
Xcel’s core earnings derive from regulated returns on invested utility infrastructure. As new generation, transmission and distribution assets are placed in service they expand rate base, creating predictable, commission‑backed cash flow and durable earnings visibility over multi‑year capital cycles.
Read all positive factors
Xcel Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from various business segments, providing insight into which parts of the company are most profitable and where strategic focus might be needed.
Analyzes income from various business segments, providing insight into which parts of the company are most profitable and where strategic focus might be needed.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyXcel Energy (XEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$49.33B
Dividend Yield3.09%
Average Volume (3M)6.10M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.8
Beta (1Y)0.17
Revenue Growth7.57%
EPS Growth2.60%
CountryUS
Employees11,380
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.50
Shares Outstanding624,269,530
10 Day Avg. Volume4,958,266
30 Day Avg. Volume6,097,090
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)1.84
Price to Sales (P/S)2.96
P/FCF Ratio8.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.74
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.80
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit30.70
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$92.25Price Target Upside13.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)4.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.83B
Xcel Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Xcel Energy Inc., through its various operating units, functions as a multifaceted energy company involved in the complete cycle of electricity – from its production and procurement to its transmission, delivery, and eventual sale. Its business is...
How the Company Makes Money
Xcel Energy makes money primarily through regulated utility operations. Its largest revenue streams come from selling electricity and delivering it over its transmission and distribution networks, and from selling and distributing natural gas to e...
Xcel Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call balances meaningful near-term challenges (regulatory disallowance, wildfire liabilities, weather effects, and higher financing/depreciation pressures) with stronger positives: sequential and year-over-year ongoing earnings growth, aggressive infrastructure investment (>$3B in Q1; $14B plan for 2026), a sizable and actionable data center pipeline highlighted by the Google ESA (1,900 MW + long-duration storage) and JDA with NextEra, substantial tax-credit benefits, proactive financing that already covers over half of five-year equity needs, and reaffirmed guidance and long-term growth targets. Management framed regulatory items as manageable and emphasized execution partnerships to mitigate supply-chain/labor risks.Positive Updates
Ongoing Earnings Growth
Ongoing EPS of $0.91 in Q1 2026 vs $0.84 in Q1 2025 (increase of $0.07 or ~8.3% year-over-year). GAAP EPS was $0.89; ongoing earnings exclude nonrecurring items.
Negative Updates
Prairie Island ALJ Replacement Power Disallowance
An ALJ recommended an additional $4.241 billion disallowance related to replacement power costs from an extended Prairie Island outage; Xcel recorded a $37 million charge (4¢/share) in Q1 2026 tied to this matter (excluded from ongoing earnings).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Ongoing Earnings Growth
Ongoing EPS of $0.91 in Q1 2026 vs $0.84 in Q1 2025 (increase of $0.07 or ~8.3% year-over-year). GAAP EPS was $0.89; ongoing earnings exclude nonrecurring items.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Xcel reaffirmed 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04–$4.16 per share, reiterated a long‑term earnings growth target of 6%–8%+ and an expected ~9% average EPS growth through 2030, and guided 2026 full‑year weather‑adjusted electric sales growth of ~3%. Management expects to execute a $14 billion 2026 capital plan (the largest in company history), invested >$3 billion in Q1, sees line‑of‑sight to $7+ billion of the previously disclosed $10+ billion incremental investment opportunity, and reiterated plans to secure ~6 GW of data center load by year‑end 2027 (including ~2 GW with NextEra), noting an incremental investment opportunity of roughly $6–$8 billion to serve each GW. On financing, the company has addressed over half of its ~ $7 billion five‑year base equity need (issued >$1 billion of forwards and an $800 million junior subordinated note) and continues to target ~40% equity funding; tax incentives are expected to deliver >$7 billion of aggregate PTC/ITC benefits for 2026–2030 (with $425 million of tax‑credit benefits from recent projects). Finally, Xcel updated Smokehouse Creek exposure with a low‑end liability of $460 million, $397 million in committed settlements, and $525 million of insurance coverage.Xcel Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.78B | 14.67B | 13.44B | 14.21B | 15.31B | 13.43B |
| Gross Profit | 2.79B | 3.56B | 6.15B | 5.98B | 5.86B | 5.26B |
| EBITDA | 6.21B | 6.07B | 5.59B | 5.20B | 5.08B | 4.60B |
| Net Income | 2.09B | 2.02B | 1.94B | 1.77B | 1.74B | 1.60B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 84.83B | 81.37B | 70.03B | 64.08B | 61.19B | 57.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.76B | 274.00M | 179.00M | 129.00M | 111.00M | 166.00M |
| Total Debt | 39.20B | 34.78B | 30.21B | 27.51B | 26.03B | 24.74B |
| Total Liabilities | 61.02B | 57.76B | 50.51B | 46.46B | 44.51B | 42.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 23.81B | 23.61B | 19.52B | 17.62B | 16.68B | 15.61B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -3.24B | 5.25B | -2.72B | -527.00M | -706.00M | -2.06B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 669.00M | 4.08B | 4.64B | 5.33B | 3.93B | 2.19B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.03B | -10.97B | -7.43B | -5.93B | -4.65B | -4.29B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 901.00M | 6.98B | 2.84B | 617.00M | 666.00M | 2.13B |
Xcel Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
81.08
Price Trends
79.34
Positive
79.60
Positive
77.98
Positive
Market Momentum
0.35
Positive
51.37
Neutral
16.95
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 81.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 79.89, above the 50-day MA of 79.34, and above the 200-day MA of 77.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.95 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XEL.
Xcel Energy Risk Analysis
Xcel Energy disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Xcel Energy reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Xcel Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $72.83B | 19.84 | 11.86% | 3.25% | 9.38% | 31.12% | |
66 Neutral | $107.29B | 24.26 | 12.28% | 3.40% | 8.33% | -6.26% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $97.65B | 19.21 | 9.85% | 3.61% | 7.21% | 8.97% | |
63 Neutral | $49.33B | 22.82 | 9.34% | 3.09% | 7.57% | 2.60% | |
61 Neutral | $61.08B | 20.61 | 10.51% | 4.59% | 19.15% | 27.09% | |
59 Neutral | $47.46B | 17.06 | 9.76% | 3.68% | 4.58% | 1.43% |
* Utilities Sector Average
XEL
Xcel Energy
80.06
12.96
19.31%
AEP
American Electric Power
135.43
33.63
33.04%
D
Dominion Energy
70.08
15.30
27.93%
DUK
Duke Energy
125.48
11.53
10.12%
EXC
Exelon
46.80
4.88
11.65%
SO
Southern Co
95.61
5.86
6.53%
Xcel Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Xcel Energy Subsidiary Reaches New Mexico Rate Settlement
Positive
Jun 23, 2026
Southwestern Public Service Company, a New Mexico utility and wholly owned subsidiary of Xcel Energy, filed an electric rate case with the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission in November 2025, later updating its request in March 2026 to seek a...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Xcel Energy Gains Approval for Minnesota Rate Increase
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
On June 18, 2026, the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission issued a verbal decision in Xcel Energy’s 2024 Minnesota electric rate case for Northern States Power Company, following a November 2024 filing and interim rates approved in Decembe...
Business Operations and StrategyLegal ProceedingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Regulators Challenge Xcel Energy Colorado Natural Gas Rate Hike
Negative
Jun 9, 2026
In December 2025, Public Service Company of Colorado filed a natural gas rate case with the Colorado Public Utilities Commission seeking an 11.6% revenue increase, or $190 million, based on a 10.75% return on equity, a 55% equity ratio and a 2025 ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Xcel Energy Reaches Colorado Electric Rate Case Settlement
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
In November 2025, Public Service Company of Colorado filed an electric rate case seeking a 9.9% revenue increase, which led on June 2, 2026 to a comprehensive but non-unanimous settlement with Colorado regulators and other parties. The agreement, ...
Shareholder Meetings
Xcel Energy Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 22, 2026
At Xcel Energy’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on May 20, 2026, investors elected all ten board nominees, reaffirming the company’s existing governance structure and leadership. Shareholders also approved, on an advisory bas...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Xcel Energy Reaches Partial Settlement in Minnesota Gas Case
Neutral
May 11, 2026
In October 2025, Northern States Power Company-Minnesota filed a Minnesota natural gas rate case seeking a total revenue increase of $62 million, or 8.2%, based on a 2026 forecast test year, a proposed return on equity of 10.65%, a 52.5% equity ra...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Xcel Energy Faces Challenges to New Mexico Rate Increase
Negative
May 5, 2026
In November 2025, Southwestern Public Service Company filed an electric rate case with the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission seeking a $168 million, or 16%, revenue increase, updated in March 2026, based on a future test year ending Nov. 30,...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Xcel Energy Establishes $4.3 Billion Equity Distribution Program
Neutral
May 1, 2026
On May 1, 2026, Xcel Energy entered into an equity distribution agreement enabling it to offer and sell up to $4.3 billion of common stock from time to time through a syndicate of major investment banks acting as sales agents. The stock may be iss...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.