Xcel Energy (XEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $40.60B
• Dividend Yield: 3.13%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.10
• Revenue Growth: -0.44%
• EPS Growth: 2.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,380
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 92
• Industry: Regulated Electric
• EPS (TTM): 3.39
• Shares Outstanding: 576,760,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,339,374
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,091,794
• PEG Ratio: 9.68
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.77
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.70
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $76.80
• Price Target Upside: 8.52% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

Xcel Energy demonstrates a stable financial position with strong operational efficiency and profitability, although challenged by recent revenue declines and high capital expenditures. The technical indicators show moderate positive momentum, supporting potential stock appreciation. Valuation metrics suggest the stock might be slightly overvalued, but the dividend yield enhances investor appeal. The earnings call underscores strategic investments and regulatory achievements, balancing concerns over declining earnings and increased liabilities. Overall, Xcel Energy presents a balanced risk-reward profile in the regulated electric industry.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Xcel Energy reaffirmed its annual EPS and growth guidance, projecting EPS growth of 6%-8% and dividend growth of 4%-6%.

Regulatory Developments

The company continues to execute on the regulatory front with the approved MN resource plan settlement providing visibility into the upside capital opportunities.

Sustainability Initiatives

Xcel's footprint gives it access to one of the most renewables-rich regions in the U.S., providing it with cost-effective de-carbonization opportunities.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Concerns

The reduction in cash flow in the interim could require incremental equity issuance or other mitigation measures to preserve credit metrics.

Litigation Risks

Wildfires are expected to be a key topic for investors on the call, indicating ongoing concern about litigation and potential financial impacts.

Operational Costs

Earnings in the quarter were negatively impacted by higher expenses, consistent with guidance suggesting an increase in operating and maintenance costs.

Xcel Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Xcel Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, generates, purchases, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity. It operates through Regulated Electric Utility, Regulated Natural Gas Utility, and All Other segments. The company generates electricity through coal, nuclear, natural gas, hydroelectric, solar, biomass, oil, wood/refuse, and wind energy sources. It also purchases, transports, distributes, and sells natural gas to retail customers, as well as transports customer-owned natural gas. In addition, the company develops and leases natural gas pipelines, and storage and compression facilities; and invests in rental housing projects, as well as procures equipment for the construction of renewable generation facilities. It serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers in the portions of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, and Wisconsin. The company sells electricity to approximately 3.7 million customers; and natural gas to approximately 2.1 million customers. Xcel Energy Inc. was incorporated in 1909 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

Xcel Energy makes money primarily through its regulated utility operations, which include the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity and natural gas. The company's revenue model is largely based on customer rates approved by state public utility commissions, which allow Xcel Energy to recover costs and earn a regulated return on its investments in infrastructure and service improvements. Key revenue streams include electricity sales to residential, commercial, and industrial customers, as well as natural gas sales and transportation services. Xcel Energy's earnings are also influenced by its ongoing investments in renewable energy projects, such as wind and solar farms, which are supported by government incentives and long-term power purchase agreements. These projects not only contribute to revenue but also help the company meet regulatory requirements for renewable energy usage. Additionally, Xcel Energy may benefit from strategic partnerships and collaborations that enhance its capacity to deliver innovative energy solutions.

Xcel Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Xcel Energy shows stable financial performance with strong operational efficiency. While revenue has declined recently, profitability remains solid. The balance sheet shows manageable leverage, and cash flow from operations is strong despite high capital expenditures leading to negative free cash flow.

Income Statement

Xcel Energy demonstrates stable profitability with a consistent gross profit margin and net profit margin over the years. The TTM data shows a gross profit margin of 50.19% and a net profit margin of 14.08%. Revenue growth is slightly negative in recent periods, with a decline of 2.17% from 2022 to 2023 and a further decline of 5.60% from 2023 to 2024. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins remain strong at 17.49% and 40.77% in the TTM, indicating efficient operational performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderately leveraged position with a TTM debt-to-equity ratio of 1.60, which is typical for the regulated electric industry. The return on equity (ROE) is healthy at 9.75%, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 27.22%, indicating a solid capital structure despite the significant debt levels.

Cash Flow

Xcel Energy's cash flow shows challenges with negative free cash flow in the TTM at -$317 million, primarily due to high capital expenditures. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.39, demonstrating robust cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting the impact of capital investment on cash flow.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
13.44B	14.21B	15.31B	13.43B	11.53B
	Gross Profit
6.15B	5.93B	5.86B	5.26B	4.96B
	EBIT
2.39B	2.48B	2.43B	2.20B	2.12B
	EBITDA
5.53B	5.20B	5.01B	4.46B	4.19B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.94B	1.77B	1.74B	1.60B	1.47B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
179.00M	129.00M	111.00M	166.00M	129.00M
	Total Assets
70.03B	64.08B	61.19B	57.85B	53.96B
	Total Debt
29.51B	27.51B	26.03B	24.74B	22.21B
	Net Debt
29.33B	27.39B	25.92B	24.57B	22.08B
	Total Liabilities
50.51B	46.46B	44.51B	42.24B	39.38B
	Stockholders Equity
19.52B	17.62B	16.68B	15.61B	14.57B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-2.72B	-527.00M	-706.00M	-2.06B	-2.52B
	Operating Cash Flow
4.64B	5.33B	3.93B	2.19B	2.85B
	Investing Cash Flow
-7.43B	-5.93B	-4.65B	-4.29B	-4.74B
	Financing Cash Flow
2.84B	617.00M	666.00M	2.13B	1.77B

Xcel Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 70.77
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 70.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 69.67, above the 50-day MA of 69.52, and above the 200-day MA of 65.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XEL.

Xcel Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WEC	75 Outperform	$34.71B	22.55	12.64%	3.10%	-3.30%	14.40%
ED	74 Outperform	$40.54B	21.48	8.44%	2.97%	4.23%	-27.02%
EXC	73 Outperform	$47.04B	19.00	10.10%	3.30%	5.98%	4.99%
XEL	69 Neutral	$40.60B	20.76	10.26%	3.13%	-0.44%	2.14%
PCG	68 Neutral	$36.31B	15.19	8.55%	0.42%	1.91%	-4.40%
PEG	65 Neutral	$39.25B	22.20	11.40%	3.09%	11.24%	1.15%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$8.48B	11.92	6.36%	4.35%	3.15%	-10.41%

Xcel Energy Corporate Events

Xcel Energy Announces Leadership Transition in 2025

On February 25, 2025, Xcel Energy announced the retirement of Timothy O’Connor, Executive Vice President, Chief Operations Officer, effective May 1, 2025. In his place, Michael Lamb will take over as Executive Vice President, Chief Delivery Officer, and Scott Sharp will assume the role of Executive Vice President, Chief Generation Officer. This leadership transition reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to operational excellence and continuity, with both Lamb and Sharp having extensive experience within the company. O’Connor will remain with Xcel Energy to assist with the transition until August 21, 2025.