Xcel Energy (XEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $42.98B
• Dividend Yield: 3.08%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.77M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.14
• Revenue Growth: 1.20%
• EPS Growth: 7.99%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,380
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: Regulated Electric
• EPS (TTM): 0.75
• Shares Outstanding: 591,426,150
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,696,845
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,771,990
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.67
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.21
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.22
• 1Y Price Target: $77.86
• Price Target Upside: 7.13% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $80.00 ▲(10.07% Upside)

Xcel Energy's overall stock score reflects a stable financial performance with strong profitability but high leverage and negative free cash flow. Positive technical indicators and strategic investments in infrastructure and renewable energy support a favorable outlook. However, valuation concerns and potential regulatory challenges from corporate events and earnings call risks temper the overall score.

Positive Factors

De-risking Event

The Marshall Fire litigation resolution is seen as a major de-risking event for Xcel Energy shares.

Growth Potential

Xcel Energy is expected to have the highest ratebase CAGR among large-cap utilities, enhancing its growth potential.

Risk Reduction

Reduced fire risk is anticipated to meaningfully decrease equity dilution as the Marshall Fire issue is resolved.

Negative Factors

Customer Impact Risk

Projects planned post-2029 could have an adverse impact on customers if not addressed, highlighting a potential risk.

Financial Challenges

The reduction in cash flow in the interim could require incremental equity issuance or other mitigation measures to preserve credit metrics.

Regulatory Concerns

Caution around recent regulatory developments is reflected in the rating.

Xcel Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Xcel Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, generates, purchases, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity. It operates through Regulated Electric Utility, Regulated Natural Gas Utility, and All Other segments. The company generates electricity through coal, nuclear, natural gas, hydroelectric, solar, biomass, oil, wood/refuse, and wind energy sources. It also purchases, transports, distributes, and sells natural gas to retail customers, as well as transports customer-owned natural gas. In addition, the company develops and leases natural gas pipelines, and storage and compression facilities; and invests in rental housing projects, as well as procures equipment for the construction of renewable generation facilities. It serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers in the portions of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, and Wisconsin. The company sells electricity to approximately 3.7 million customers; and natural gas to approximately 2.1 million customers. Xcel Energy Inc. was incorporated in 1909 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

Xcel Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Its revenue model is based on regulated utility rates set by state public utility commissions, which allow the company to recover its costs and earn a reasonable return on investment. Key revenue streams include electricity sales from both renewable sources (such as wind and solar) and traditional fossil fuel sources (like natural gas and coal). Additionally, Xcel Energy earns income from natural gas sales and various energy efficiency programs. Significant partnerships with state governments, renewable energy developers, and other stakeholders contribute to its growth, particularly in expanding its renewable energy portfolio and achieving sustainability goals.

Xcel Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Xcel Energy demonstrates stable revenue growth and strong profitability margins, but faces challenges with high leverage and negative free cash flow. While the company efficiently generates cash from operations, the reliance on debt and negative free cash flow growth could impact financial flexibility. Overall, the financial health is solid but requires careful management of debt and cash flow.

Income Statement

Xcel Energy's income statement shows a stable performance with a slight revenue growth of 1.79% in the TTM period. The company maintains healthy margins with a gross profit margin of 34.29% and a net profit margin of 14.85%. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong at 20.99% and 42.00%, respectively. However, the gross profit margin has decreased from previous years, indicating potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.06, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. Return on equity is moderate at 10.41%, suggesting efficient use of equity. The equity ratio stands at 27.82%, reflecting a balanced asset structure but highlighting the reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a challenging scenario with negative free cash flow and a free cash flow to net income ratio of -22.66%. Although operating cash flow is strong, the negative free cash flow growth rate suggests potential liquidity issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 5.5, indicating good cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	13.96B	13.44B	14.21B	15.31B	13.43B	11.53B
Gross Profit	6.39B	6.15B	5.98B	5.86B	5.26B	4.96B
EBITDA	5.87B	5.59B	5.20B	5.08B	4.60B	4.32B
Net Income	2.07B	1.94B	1.77B	1.74B	1.60B	1.47B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	75.34B	70.03B	64.08B	61.19B	57.85B	53.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.45B	179.00M	129.00M	111.00M	166.00M	129.00M
Total Debt	33.33B	30.21B	27.51B	26.03B	24.74B	22.21B
Total Liabilities	54.38B	50.51B	46.46B	44.51B	42.24B	39.38B
Stockholders Equity	20.96B	19.52B	17.62B	16.68B	15.61B	14.57B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.02B	-2.72B	-527.00M	-706.00M	-2.06B	-2.52B
Operating Cash Flow	4.51B	4.64B	5.33B	3.93B	2.19B	2.85B
Investing Cash Flow	-8.46B	-7.43B	-5.93B	-4.65B	-4.29B	-4.74B
Financing Cash Flow	3.80B	2.84B	617.00M	666.00M	2.13B	1.77B

Xcel Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 72.68
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 72.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 72.72, above the 50-day MA of 71.39, and above the 200-day MA of 68.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XEL.

Xcel Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
D	75 Outperform	$49.66B	20.10	9.29%	4.59%	7.60%	55.99%
AEP	74 Outperform	$57.82B	15.84	13.03%	3.44%	5.84%	36.33%
DUK	73 Outperform	$93.79B	19.72	9.60%	3.48%	4.07%	9.94%
EXC	73 Outperform	$43.86B	16.49	9.87%	3.64%	4.46%	8.68%
XEL	68 Neutral	$42.98B	20.16	10.65%	3.08%	1.20%	7.99%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.24B	18.03	5.60%	3.64%	6.63%	11.55%
SO	65 Neutral	$100.96B	23.70	12.89%	3.18%	8.53%	-7.53%

Xcel Energy Corporate Events

Xcel Energy’s Rate Increase Approved for 2025

In November 2024, Northern States Power Company, a subsidiary of Xcel Energy, filed for an electric rate increase in Minnesota, requesting a $491 million revenue boost over two years. The Minnesota Public Utilities Commission approved interim rates of $192 million for 2025. Various stakeholders, including the Minnesota Department of Commerce and Walmart, proposed adjustments to the rate request, focusing on reducing the return on equity and other expenses. A decision by the MPUC is anticipated in the third quarter of 2026.

Xcel Energy’s Rate Increase Proposal Adjustments Recommended

In March 2025, Northern States Power Company-Wisconsin, a subsidiary of Xcel Energy, filed a request with the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin for a multi-year increase in electric and natural gas rates. The request includes a $151 million electric revenue increase over 2026 and 2027, and a $24 million natural gas revenue increase over the same period. On August 8, 2025, the PSCW Staff recommended adjustments, suggesting a $115 million increase for electric and $21 million for natural gas, with a decision expected by late 2025. This rate adjustment proposal reflects NSP-Wisconsin’s strategic focus on infrastructure investments and operational cost management, impacting stakeholders by potentially altering service costs and investment returns.

Xcel Energy’s SPS Selects 3,121 MW Capacity Portfolio

In October 2023, SPS, a subsidiary of Xcel Energy, filed its Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) with the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission (NMPRC) to address projected load growth and reliability needs, securing replacement energy and capacity for retiring resources. By July 2025, SPS selected a portfolio of 3,121 MW of accredited capacity resources, including wind, solar, storage, and natural gas, and plans to make regulatory filings for asset approvals in 2025, with expectations for approval in 2026. This strategic move is expected to enhance SPS’s operational capacity and compliance with renewable standards, impacting its industry positioning and stakeholder interests.

Xcel Energy Seeks $44 Million Rate Increase

On June 30, 2025, Northern States Power Company, a subsidiary of Xcel Energy, filed for a $44 million electric rate increase with the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission, aiming for a 15% hike based on a 2024 test year. If approved, this would lead to a 3% average annual residential bill increase over 2016-2026, potentially impacting stakeholders and the company’s financial positioning.

Xcel Energy Appoints New Chief Legal Officer

On June 13, 2025, Xcel Energy announced that Rob Berntsen, Executive Vice President, Chief Legal and Compliance Officer, would be leaving the company to pursue another opportunity. Ryan Long, who has been with Xcel Energy since 2015 and served in various legal roles, was promoted to fill Berntsen’s position effective June 16, 2025. Long will also continue his role as President of Northern States Power Company while a search for his successor is conducted.