Xcel Energy Inc (XEL)
NASDAQ:XEL
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Xcel Energy
(NASDAQ:XEL)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$90.00
▲(15.25% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/04/26
The score is led by a positive earnings outlook (reaffirmed 2026 guidance and long-term growth supported by a large investment pipeline) and constructive technical trend (price above major moving averages). These positives are tempered by weaker financial quality driven by persistently negative free cash flow and elevated leverage, plus a relatively high P/E for a regulated utility despite a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Large multi-year capex pipeline
A >$60bn five-year capital plan signals durable, rate-base driven growth for a regulated utility. Sustained investment in generation, transmission and storage should expand regulated earnings capacity, create long-lived assets that earn allowed returns, and underpin multi-year EPS growth targets.
Negative Factors
Persistently negative free cash flow
Chronic negative free cash flow reflects heavy capital intensity to build renewables, storage and transmission. Over time this increases reliance on external financing, raises sensitivity to higher interest costs, and limits internal funding flexibility for dividends or unexpected liabilities.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large multi-year capex pipeline
A >$60bn five-year capital plan signals durable, rate-base driven growth for a regulated utility. Sustained investment in generation, transmission and storage should expand regulated earnings capacity, create long-lived assets that earn allowed returns, and underpin multi-year EPS growth targets.
Read all positive factors
Xcel Energy (XEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$48.72B
Dividend Yield3.09%
Average Volume (3M)4.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.5
Beta (1Y)0.18
Revenue Growth3.32%
EPS Growth-2.30%
CountryUS
Employees11,380
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.96
Shares Outstanding623,876,830
10 Day Avg. Volume4,641,177
30 Day Avg. Volume4,476,244
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)1.84
Price to Sales (P/S)2.96
P/FCF Ratio8.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.71
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit23.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.73
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$91.00Price Target Upside16.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)4.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.85B
Xcel Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Xcel Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, generates, purchases, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity. It operates through Regulated Electric Utility, Regulated Natural Gas Utility, and All Other segments. The company generates electrici...
How the Company Makes Money
Xcel Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company's revenue model is based on regulated utility operations, where it earns returns on the capit...
Xcel Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Breaks down revenue based on different types of services or products, highlighting which areas drive the most income and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Breaks down revenue based on different types of services or products, highlighting which areas drive the most income and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyXcel Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and financial story: 2025 ongoing earnings beat, record capital investment, robust renewables/transmission milestones, expanding data center contracts (now >2 GW with 3 GW by 2026 and 6 GW by 2027 targets), and strategic partnerships (NextEra, GE Vernova) to accelerate execution. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance and attractive long-term growth. Headwinds include a $300M wildfire charge (impacting GAAP), elevated O&M and insurance costs (+$190M), higher interest and depreciation that reduced EPS, outstanding wildfire liabilities (low-end estimate $430M), and timing risk that much of the data-center-driven sales/capex will flow in the 2029–2030+ timeframe. Regulatory and political timing (rate case outcomes, state elections) also present execution/timing uncertainty. Overall, positives (consistent earnings, large investment pipeline, renewables/transmission wins, data center momentum, strategic alliances) outweigh the manageable lowlights and near-term expense/headwind items.Positive Updates
Ongoing Earnings Beat and Consistency
Ongoing EPS of $3.80 for full-year 2025 vs. $3.50 in 2024 (≈+8.6%), marking the 21st consecutive year of meeting or exceeding initial ongoing earnings guidance. GAAP EPS was $3.42 after a one-time $300M (38¢/share) Marshall Wildfire charge.
Negative Updates
One-Time Marshall Wildfire Charge Impacting GAAP Results
Recorded a $300M pre-tax Marshall Wildfire charge (38¢/share) in 2025; GAAP EPS of $3.42 vs. ongoing EPS $3.80. Low-end estimated liability updated to $430M with ~$382M already committed; a few plaintiffs remain unsettled.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Ongoing Earnings Beat and Consistency
Ongoing EPS of $3.80 for full-year 2025 vs. $3.50 in 2024 (≈+8.6%), marking the 21st consecutive year of meeting or exceeding initial ongoing earnings guidance. GAAP EPS was $3.42 after a one-time $300M (38¢/share) Marshall Wildfire charge.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Xcel reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $4.04–$4.16 and full‑year weather‑adjusted electric sales growth of ~3% for 2026, reiterated long‑term ongoing earnings growth of 6%–8%+ and an average 9% EPS CAGR through 2030, and set multi‑year growth targets tied to large capital plans — investing in excess of $60 billion over the next five years, adding ~7,000 MW of company‑owned renewables/gas/storage in the 2026–2030 plan, and maintaining a $10+ billion pipeline of additional investment opportunities (including line‑of‑sight to $1.5 billion more from a newly awarded 765 kV line); on data centers they’ve signed ESAs for >2 GW, aim to add ~1 GW in 2026 to reach 3 GW by 2026 and 6 GW by 2027, have RFPs outstanding for 4,100 MW (NSP) and 1,500–3,000 MW nameplate, and have safe‑hardened equipment for ~20 GW of renewables/storage to preserve tax credits — all while maintaining a strong balance sheet funded with a mix of debt and equity.Xcel Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 14.67B | 13.44B | 14.21B | 15.31B | 13.43B |
| Gross Profit | 3.56B | 6.15B | 5.98B | 5.86B | 5.26B |
| EBITDA | 6.07B | 5.59B | 5.20B | 5.08B | 4.60B |
| Net Income | 2.02B | 1.94B | 1.77B | 1.74B | 1.60B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 81.37B | 70.03B | 64.08B | 61.19B | 57.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 274.00M | 179.00M | 129.00M | 111.00M | 166.00M |
| Total Debt | 34.78B | 30.21B | 27.51B | 26.03B | 24.74B |
| Total Liabilities | 57.76B | 50.51B | 46.46B | 44.51B | 42.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 23.61B | 19.52B | 17.62B | 16.68B | 15.61B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.25B | -2.72B | -527.00M | -706.00M | -2.06B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.08B | 4.64B | 5.33B | 3.93B | 2.19B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.97B | -7.43B | -5.93B | -4.65B | -4.29B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 6.98B | 2.84B | 617.00M | 666.00M | 2.13B |
Xcel Energy Technical Analysis
Neutral
78.09
Price Trends
78.68
Negative
77.42
Positive
74.81
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.50
Positive
42.45
Neutral
26.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XEL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 78.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 80.26, below the 50-day MA of 78.68, and above the 200-day MA of 74.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for XEL.
Xcel Energy Risk Analysis
Xcel Energy disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Xcel Energy reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Xcel Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $70.37B | 16.71 | 12.06% | 3.25% | 7.66% | 37.42% | |
71 Outperform | $101.09B | 18.33 | 9.69% | 3.61% | 4.80% | 14.44% | |
66 Neutral | $106.96B | 22.16 | 12.50% | 3.40% | 9.40% | -6.05% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $48.72B | 21.48 | 9.43% | 3.09% | 3.32% | -2.30% | |
65 Neutral | $49.43B | 15.92 | 9.87% | 3.68% | 6.07% | 15.20% | |
63 Neutral | $53.50B | 16.69 | 10.77% | 4.59% | 12.72% | 4.90% |
* Utilities Sector Average
XEL
Xcel Energy
78.09
9.47
13.80%
AEP
American Electric Power
130.10
24.36
23.04%
D
Dominion Energy
60.88
7.29
13.61%
DUK
Duke Energy
129.99
12.19
10.35%
EXC
Exelon
48.32
3.82
8.59%
SO
Southern Co
95.55
6.52
7.33%
Xcel Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Xcel Energy Issues $800 Million Junior Subordinated Notes
Positive
Mar 3, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Xcel Energy Inc. issued $800 million of 5.75% Fixed-to-Fixed Reset Rate Junior Subordinated Notes due 2056, under an underwriting agreement with a syndicate led by major investment banks and pursuant to an effective shelf registr...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Xcel Energy Secures $1.5 Billion Short-Term Loan Facility
Positive
Feb 2, 2026
On January 30, 2026, Xcel Energy Inc. entered into a $1.5 billion unsecured 364-day delayed draw term loan facility with a syndicate of lenders led by U.S. Bank National Association, and immediately drew $750 million to support general corporate o...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Xcel Energy’s Colorado utility files major natural gas rate case
Neutral
Jan 2, 2026
On Dec. 29, 2025, Public Service Company of Colorado filed a natural gas rate case with the Colorado Public Utilities Commission seeking an 11.6% revenue increase, or $190 million, for a 2025 test year built on a projected $4.7 billion rate base. ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Xcel Energy Appoints Maria Demaree to Board
Positive
Dec 17, 2025
On December 17, 2025, Xcel Energy‘s Board of Directors welcomed Maria Demaree as a new board member, expanding the board’s size from 11 to 12 members. Ms. Demaree, an experienced executive from Lockheed Martin with decades of leadershi...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Xcel Energy Announces Bond Purchase Offer
Neutral
Dec 15, 2025
On December 15, 2025, Xcel Energy announced the initiation of offers to purchase up to $345 million of outstanding first mortgage bonds from its subsidiary, Northern States Power Company. This strategic move is aimed at managing the company’...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.