Want to see XEL full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Xcel Energy
(NASDAQ:XEL)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$82.00
â–²(0.40% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/02/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash-flow quality (large, worsening negative free cash flow) and rising leverage, despite solid profitability. Offsetting factors include a constructive earnings call with reaffirmed guidance and a large investment pipeline, plus reasonable valuation supported by a ~3% dividend. Technicals are mildly negative near-term (below key short/intermediate moving averages), keeping the overall rating in the middle range.
Positive Factors
Large, predictable regulated investment pipeline
Xcel’s sizeable multi-year capital program creates durable rate base growth visibility. A $70B+ five-year plan with $10B+ incremental opportunities supports steady allowed-return earnings as new assets are placed in service, underpinning long-term regulated revenue and EPS tailwinds.
Negative Factors
Deeply negative and worsening free cash flow
The scale and trend of negative FCF signal heavy reliance on external financing to fund capital spending. Persistently large negative FCF reduces financial flexibility, increases refinancing needs, and raises the company's sensitivity to higher borrowing costs during multi-year builds.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large, predictable regulated investment pipeline
Xcel’s sizeable multi-year capital program creates durable rate base growth visibility. A $70B+ five-year plan with $10B+ incremental opportunities supports steady allowed-return earnings as new assets are placed in service, underpinning long-term regulated revenue and EPS tailwinds.
Read all positive factors
Xcel Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from various business segments, providing insight into which parts of the company are most profitable and where strategic focus might be needed.
Analyzes income from various business segments, providing insight into which parts of the company are most profitable and where strategic focus might be needed.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyXcel Energy (XEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$48.85B
Dividend Yield2.97%
Average Volume (3M)5.31M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.3
Beta (1Y)0.18
Revenue Growth4.57%
EPS Growth1.46%
CountryUS
Employees11,534
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.67
Shares Outstanding624,634,300
10 Day Avg. Volume4,830,983
30 Day Avg. Volume5,312,630
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)1.84
Price to Sales (P/S)2.96
P/FCF Ratio-6.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$93.64Price Target Upside14.65% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)4.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.81B
Xcel Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Xcel Energy Inc., through its various operating units, functions as a multifaceted energy company involved in the complete cycle of electricity – from its production and procurement to its transmission, delivery, and eventual sale. Its business is...
How the Company Makes Money
Xcel Energy makes money primarily through regulated utility operations. Its largest revenue streams come from selling electricity and delivering it over its transmission and distribution networks, and from selling and distributing natural gas to e...
Xcel Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution, meaningful year-over-year earnings growth (+24% Q2 EPS), substantial capital deployment and a large incremental project pipeline (line of sight to $10+ billion and a broader $70+ billion 5-year program). Management reaffirmed guidance, demonstrated progress on regulatory settlements and advanced customer programs, and showed substantial financing coverage (≈85% of near-term equity need). Key negatives were higher interest and financing costs that trimmed EPS, wildfire-related operational risk and some timing uncertainty for when incremental projects will hit rate base. On balance, the company presented multiple material wins and sustained momentum that outweigh manageable headwinds.Positive Updates
Quarterly Earnings Improvement
Q2 2026 GAAP EPS of $0.93 vs. $0.75 in Q2 2025, an increase of +24% year-over-year; drivers included higher electric revenues (+$0.17/share), higher AFUDC (+$0.08/share), and lower depreciation & amortization (+$0.08/share).
Negative Updates
Financing and Interest Cost Headwinds
Higher interest expense reduced EPS by $0.12/share and common equity financing reduced EPS by $0.06/share in the quarter, reflecting near-term financing costs associated with funding large infrastructure investments.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Earnings Improvement
Q2 2026 GAAP EPS of $0.93 vs. $0.75 in Q2 2025, an increase of +24% year-over-year; drivers included higher electric revenues (+$0.17/share), higher AFUDC (+$0.08/share), and lower depreciation & amortization (+$0.08/share).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Xcel reaffirmed 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04–$4.16 after reporting Q2 EPS of $0.93 (vs. $0.75 Y/Y); year‑to‑date weather‑adjusted electric sales are +2.1% with full‑year weather‑adjusted sales expected to rise ~3%. Quarter drivers included nonfuel riders and sales growth (+$0.17/share), higher AFUDC (+$0.08), lower depreciation & amortization (+$0.08) and other items (+$0.03), partially offset by higher interest expense (‑$0.12) and common equity financing (‑$0.06). The company invested $3.0B in Q2 and over $6.0B YTD, has addressed ~85% (≈$6B) of its $7B five‑year equity need, has line‑of‑sight to $10B+ of incremental opportunities beyond its base plan (adding to the prior $7B), and reiterated long‑term earnings growth of 6%–8% (with 9%+ EPS growth on average through 2030).Xcel Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.62B | 14.67B | 13.44B | 14.21B | 15.31B | 13.43B |
| Gross Profit | 7.14B | 6.92B | 6.15B | 5.98B | 5.86B | 5.26B |
| EBITDA | 6.53B | 6.20B | 5.59B | 5.20B | 5.08B | 4.60B |
| Net Income | 2.23B | 2.02B | 1.94B | 1.77B | 1.74B | 1.60B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 87.17B | 81.37B | 70.03B | 64.08B | 61.19B | 57.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.01B | 274.00M | 179.00M | 129.00M | 111.00M | 166.00M |
| Total Debt | 40.32B | 34.78B | 30.21B | 27.51B | 26.03B | 24.74B |
| Total Liabilities | 63.11B | 57.76B | 50.51B | 46.46B | 44.51B | 42.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 24.06B | 23.61B | 19.52B | 17.62B | 16.68B | 15.61B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -7.69B | -6.83B | -2.72B | -527.00M | -706.00M | -2.06B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.77B | 4.08B | 4.64B | 5.33B | 3.93B | 2.19B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -12.50B | -10.97B | -7.43B | -5.93B | -4.65B | -4.29B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 8.28B | 6.98B | 2.84B | 617.00M | 666.00M | 2.13B |
Xcel Energy Technical Analysis
Neutral
81.67
Price Trends
79.11
Negative
79.21
Negative
78.06
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.58
Positive
44.88
Neutral
17.19
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XEL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 81.67 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 79.13, above the 50-day MA of 79.11, and above the 200-day MA of 78.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.19 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for XEL.
Xcel Energy Risk Analysis
Xcel Energy disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Xcel Energy reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Xcel Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $69.60B | 21.97 | 10.01% | 2.79% | 8.68% | -14.88% | |
66 Neutral | $97.78B | 19.21 | 9.88% | 3.26% | 7.21% | 8.97% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
63 Neutral | $47.30B | 16.72 | 9.61% | 3.45% | 6.56% | 3.72% | |
62 Neutral | $108.76B | 22.67 | 12.61% | 3.06% | 6.40% | 6.90% | |
60 Neutral | $48.85B | 21.31 | 9.64% | 2.85% | 4.57% | 1.46% | |
60 Neutral | $60.84B | 27.45 | 8.89% | 3.76% | 21.98% | -0.39% |
* Utilities Sector Average
XEL
Xcel Energy
78.07
7.57
10.73%
AEP
American Electric Power
125.73
16.27
14.87%
D
Dominion Energy
67.39
8.50
14.43%
DUK
Duke Energy
124.85
3.53
2.91%
EXC
Exelon
45.61
2.07
4.76%
SO
Southern Co
92.69
1.11
1.22%
Xcel Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Xcel Energy Expands Board, Appoints Independent Director
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Xcel Energy’s Board of Directors elected Peter Carter, 63, to serve as a director for a term expiring at the 2027 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, simultaneously expanding the Board from 10 to 11 members. Carter, currently P...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Xcel Energy Subsidiary Reaches New Mexico Rate Settlement
Positive
Jun 23, 2026
Southwestern Public Service Company, a New Mexico utility and wholly owned subsidiary of Xcel Energy, filed an electric rate case with the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission in November 2025, later updating its request in March 2026 to seek a...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Xcel Energy Gains Approval for Minnesota Rate Increase
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
On June 18, 2026, the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission issued a verbal decision in Xcel Energy’s 2024 Minnesota electric rate case for Northern States Power Company, following a November 2024 filing and interim rates approved in Decembe...
Business Operations and StrategyLegal ProceedingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Regulators Challenge Xcel Energy Colorado Natural Gas Rate Hike
Negative
Jun 9, 2026
In December 2025, Public Service Company of Colorado filed a natural gas rate case with the Colorado Public Utilities Commission seeking an 11.6% revenue increase, or $190 million, based on a 10.75% return on equity, a 55% equity ratio and a 2025 ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Xcel Energy Reaches Colorado Electric Rate Case Settlement
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
In November 2025, Public Service Company of Colorado filed an electric rate case seeking a 9.9% revenue increase, which led on June 2, 2026 to a comprehensive but non-unanimous settlement with Colorado regulators and other parties. The agreement, ...
Shareholder Meetings
Xcel Energy Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 22, 2026
At Xcel Energy’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on May 20, 2026, investors elected all ten board nominees, reaffirming the company’s existing governance structure and leadership. Shareholders also approved, on an advisory bas...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Xcel Energy Reaches Partial Settlement in Minnesota Gas Case
Neutral
May 11, 2026
In October 2025, Northern States Power Company-Minnesota filed a Minnesota natural gas rate case seeking a total revenue increase of $62 million, or 8.2%, based on a 2026 forecast test year, a proposed return on equity of 10.65%, a 52.5% equity ra...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Xcel Energy Faces Challenges to New Mexico Rate Increase
Negative
May 5, 2026
In November 2025, Southwestern Public Service Company filed an electric rate case with the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission seeking a $168 million, or 16%, revenue increase, updated in March 2026, based on a future test year ending Nov. 30,...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.