Xcel Energy Inc (XEL)
NASDAQ:XEL
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Xcel Energy
(NASDAQ:XEL)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$87.00
â–²(7.30% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/06/26
The score is driven primarily by stable utility profitability but constrained by elevated/rising leverage and volatile cash generation (including a sharp TTM operating cash flow drop). Technicals are mildly supportive with the stock above key moving averages, while valuation looks somewhat rich for the profile despite a moderate dividend. The latest earnings call reinforces the growth/investment runway and reaffirmed guidance, but meaningful regulatory and wildfire-related risks remain.
Positive Factors
Regulated, rate‑base business model
Xcel's core regulated model yields durable revenue and earnings tied to an expanding rate base and commission‑approved cost recovery. This reduces commodity exposure, stabilizes margins over time, and makes earnings largely a function of prudently incurred capital and approved returns.
Negative Factors
Elevated and rising leverage
Material debt accumulation to fund capex elevates financial leverage and interest‑cost sensitivity. Higher leverage constrains flexibility for future investments, increases rating and refinancing risk, and can amplify earnings pressure if allowed returns or rate recovery timing is unfavorable.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated, rate‑base business model
Xcel's core regulated model yields durable revenue and earnings tied to an expanding rate base and commission‑approved cost recovery. This reduces commodity exposure, stabilizes margins over time, and makes earnings largely a function of prudently incurred capital and approved returns.
Read all positive factors
Xcel Energy (XEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$49.56B
Dividend Yield3.09%
Average Volume (3M)4.27M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.3
Beta (1Y)0.19
Revenue Growth7.57%
EPS Growth2.60%
CountryUS
Employees11,380
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.50
Shares Outstanding624,269,530
10 Day Avg. Volume4,430,261
30 Day Avg. Volume4,265,951
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)1.84
Price to Sales (P/S)2.96
P/FCF Ratio8.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.73
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit30.60
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.10
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$92.93Price Target Upside14.61% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)4.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.93B
Xcel Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Xcel Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, generates, purchases, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity. It operates through Regulated Electric Utility, Regulated Natural Gas Utility, and All Other segments. The company generates electrici...
How the Company Makes Money
Xcel Energy primarily makes money through regulated utility operations. The bulk of its revenue comes from selling electricity and natural gas to end-use customers under retail tariffs approved by state public utility commissions. In these framewo...
Xcel Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from various business segments, providing insight into which parts of the company are most profitable and where strategic focus might be needed.
Analyzes income from various business segments, providing insight into which parts of the company are most profitable and where strategic focus might be needed.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyXcel Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call balances meaningful near-term challenges (regulatory disallowance, wildfire liabilities, weather effects, and higher financing/depreciation pressures) with stronger positives: sequential and year-over-year ongoing earnings growth, aggressive infrastructure investment (>$3B in Q1; $14B plan for 2026), a sizable and actionable data center pipeline highlighted by the Google ESA (1,900 MW + long-duration storage) and JDA with NextEra, substantial tax-credit benefits, proactive financing that already covers over half of five-year equity needs, and reaffirmed guidance and long-term growth targets. Management framed regulatory items as manageable and emphasized execution partnerships to mitigate supply-chain/labor risks.Positive Updates
Ongoing Earnings Growth
Ongoing EPS of $0.91 in Q1 2026 vs $0.84 in Q1 2025 (increase of $0.07 or ~8.3% year-over-year). GAAP EPS was $0.89; ongoing earnings exclude nonrecurring items.
Negative Updates
Prairie Island ALJ Replacement Power Disallowance
An ALJ recommended an additional $4.241 billion disallowance related to replacement power costs from an extended Prairie Island outage; Xcel recorded a $37 million charge (4¢/share) in Q1 2026 tied to this matter (excluded from ongoing earnings).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Ongoing Earnings Growth
Ongoing EPS of $0.91 in Q1 2026 vs $0.84 in Q1 2025 (increase of $0.07 or ~8.3% year-over-year). GAAP EPS was $0.89; ongoing earnings exclude nonrecurring items.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Xcel reaffirmed 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04–$4.16 per share, reiterated a long‑term earnings growth target of 6%–8%+ and an expected ~9% average EPS growth through 2030, and guided 2026 full‑year weather‑adjusted electric sales growth of ~3%. Management expects to execute a $14 billion 2026 capital plan (the largest in company history), invested >$3 billion in Q1, sees line‑of‑sight to $7+ billion of the previously disclosed $10+ billion incremental investment opportunity, and reiterated plans to secure ~6 GW of data center load by year‑end 2027 (including ~2 GW with NextEra), noting an incremental investment opportunity of roughly $6–$8 billion to serve each GW. On financing, the company has addressed over half of its ~ $7 billion five‑year base equity need (issued >$1 billion of forwards and an $800 million junior subordinated note) and continues to target ~40% equity funding; tax incentives are expected to deliver >$7 billion of aggregate PTC/ITC benefits for 2026–2030 (with $425 million of tax‑credit benefits from recent projects). Finally, Xcel updated Smokehouse Creek exposure with a low‑end liability of $460 million, $397 million in committed settlements, and $525 million of insurance coverage.Xcel Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.78B | 14.67B | 13.44B | 14.21B | 15.31B | 13.43B |
| Gross Profit | 2.79B | 3.56B | 6.15B | 5.98B | 5.86B | 5.26B |
| EBITDA | 6.07B | 6.07B | 5.59B | 5.20B | 5.08B | 4.60B |
| Net Income | 2.09B | 2.02B | 1.94B | 1.77B | 1.74B | 1.60B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 84.83B | 81.37B | 70.03B | 64.08B | 61.19B | 57.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.76B | 274.00M | 179.00M | 129.00M | 111.00M | 166.00M |
| Total Debt | 37.72B | 34.78B | 30.21B | 27.51B | 26.03B | 24.74B |
| Total Liabilities | 61.02B | 57.76B | 50.51B | 46.46B | 44.51B | 42.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 23.81B | 23.61B | 19.52B | 17.62B | 16.68B | 15.61B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -3.24B | 5.25B | -2.72B | -527.00M | -706.00M | -2.06B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 669.00M | 4.08B | 4.64B | 5.33B | 3.93B | 2.19B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.03B | -10.97B | -7.43B | -5.93B | -4.65B | -4.29B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 901.00M | 6.98B | 2.84B | 617.00M | 666.00M | 2.13B |
Xcel Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
81.08
Price Trends
80.17
Positive
77.56
Positive
75.83
Positive
Market Momentum
0.28
Negative
54.24
Neutral
37.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 81.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 79.65, above the 50-day MA of 80.17, and above the 200-day MA of 75.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XEL.
Xcel Energy Risk Analysis
Xcel Energy disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Xcel Energy reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Xcel Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $70.82B | 20.32 | 11.86% | 3.25% | 9.38% | 31.12% | |
67 Neutral | $54.43B | 21.87 | 10.77% | 4.59% | 19.15% | 27.09% | |
66 Neutral | $103.49B | 20.00 | 12.28% | 3.40% | 8.33% | -6.26% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $49.56B | 22.29 | 9.34% | 3.09% | 7.57% | 2.60% | |
65 Neutral | $96.80B | 16.43 | 9.85% | 3.61% | 7.21% | 8.97% | |
59 Neutral | $44.93B | 13.66 | 9.76% | 3.68% | 4.58% | 1.43% |
* Utilities Sector Average
XEL
Xcel Energy
79.39
13.69
20.83%
AEP
American Electric Power
130.16
32.27
32.97%
D
Dominion Energy
61.89
9.47
18.06%
DUK
Duke Energy
124.17
12.28
10.98%
EXC
Exelon
43.91
1.42
3.35%
SO
Southern Co
91.80
6.81
8.01%
Xcel Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Xcel Energy Faces Challenges to New Mexico Rate Increase
Negative
May 5, 2026
In November 2025, Southwestern Public Service Company filed an electric rate case with the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission seeking a $168 million, or 16%, revenue increase, updated in March 2026, based on a future test year ending Nov. 30,...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Xcel Energy Establishes $4.3 Billion Equity Distribution Program
Neutral
May 1, 2026
On May 1, 2026, Xcel Energy entered into an equity distribution agreement enabling it to offer and sell up to $4.3 billion of common stock from time to time through a syndicate of major investment banks acting as sales agents. The stock may be iss...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Xcel Energy Issues $800 Million Junior Subordinated Notes
Positive
Mar 3, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Xcel Energy Inc. issued $800 million of 5.75% Fixed-to-Fixed Reset Rate Junior Subordinated Notes due 2056, under an underwriting agreement with a syndicate led by major investment banks and pursuant to an effective shelf registr...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.