Xcel Energy (XEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $42.99B
• Dividend Yield: 3.09%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.14M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.11
• Revenue Growth: 3.32%
• EPS Growth: -2.30%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,380
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Regulated Electric
• EPS (TTM): 1.24
• Shares Outstanding: 591,539,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,323,261
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,140,778
• PEG Ratio: 2.74
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.95
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.83
• P/FCF Ratio: -13.96
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.91
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.78
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.48
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.14
• 1Y Price Target: $88.31
• Price Target Upside: 19.58% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.82
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $14.82B

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $78.00 ▲(5.62% Upside)

Xcel Energy's overall score reflects strong earnings guidance and strategic investments in renewable energy, offset by financial risks from high leverage and cash flow challenges. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and valuation metrics do not strongly favor buying at current levels.

Positive Factors

Renewable Energy Expansion

Xcel Energy's commitment to expanding renewable energy positions it well for future growth in sustainable energy markets, aligning with global trends toward decarbonization.

Strategic Investments

Significant investment in infrastructure and clean energy projects supports long-term growth and enhances system reliability, fostering a competitive advantage in the utility sector.

Operational Efficiency

Continued focus on operational efficiency through programs like Steel For Fuel enhances cost management and customer satisfaction, supporting sustainable financial performance.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Increased leverage poses financial risks, potentially limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns, impacting long-term financial health.

Cash Flow Challenges

Persistent negative free cash flow indicates ongoing challenges in cash generation, which could constrain future investments and shareholder returns.

Legal Risks

The lawsuit represents a significant legal risk, potentially leading to financial liabilities and reputational damage, affecting long-term operational stability.

Xcel Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Xcel Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, generates, purchases, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity. It operates through Regulated Electric Utility, Regulated Natural Gas Utility, and All Other segments. The company generates electricity through coal, nuclear, natural gas, hydroelectric, solar, biomass, oil, wood/refuse, and wind energy sources. It also purchases, transports, distributes, and sells natural gas to retail customers, as well as transports customer-owned natural gas. In addition, the company develops and leases natural gas pipelines, and storage and compression facilities; and invests in rental housing projects, as well as procures equipment for the construction of renewable generation facilities. It serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers in the portions of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, and Wisconsin. The company sells electricity to approximately 3.7 million customers; and natural gas to approximately 2.1 million customers. Xcel Energy Inc. was incorporated in 1909 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

Xcel Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company's revenue model is based on regulated utility operations, where it earns returns on the capital investments made in infrastructure, such as power plants, transmission lines, and distribution networks. Key revenue streams include residential and commercial electricity sales, natural gas sales, and ancillary services related to energy management. Additionally, Xcel Energy benefits from renewable energy credits and incentives associated with its investments in renewable energy projects. The company also engages in partnerships with other energy developers and participates in state and federal programs aimed at enhancing energy efficiency and sustainability, which further contribute to its earnings.

Xcel Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Xcel Energy demonstrates strong revenue growth but faces challenges with declining profit margins and increased leverage. Operational efficiency is solid, but cash flow issues and high leverage pose risks to long-term financial stability.

Income Statement

Xcel Energy shows a strong revenue growth rate of 24.63% in the TTM, indicating robust top-line expansion. However, the gross profit margin has decreased from 45.74% in 2024 to 32.49% in the TTM, suggesting increased cost pressures. The net profit margin also declined from 14.40% in 2024 to 9.97% in the TTM, reflecting reduced profitability. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a healthy EBIT margin of 13.63% and EBITDA margin of 29.76% in the TTM, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio has significantly increased to 3.15 in the TTM from 1.55 in 2024, indicating higher leverage and potential financial risk. Return on equity has decreased to 6.83% in the TTM from 9.92% in 2024, reflecting reduced shareholder returns. The equity ratio stands at 26.76% in the TTM, suggesting a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Xcel Energy's free cash flow remains negative, although it has improved from -$2.72 billion in 2024 to -$2.27 billion in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has decreased to 0.39 in the TTM from 0.72 in 2024, indicating weaker cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains negative, highlighting ongoing cash flow challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	14.23B	13.44B	14.21B	15.31B	13.43B	11.53B
Gross Profit	6.59B	6.15B	5.98B	5.86B	5.26B	4.96B
EBITDA	5.82B	5.59B	5.20B	5.08B	4.60B	4.32B
Net Income	1.92B	1.94B	1.77B	1.74B	1.60B	1.47B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	79.15B	70.03B	64.08B	61.19B	57.85B	53.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.05B	179.00M	129.00M	111.00M	166.00M	129.00M
Total Debt	34.64B	30.21B	27.51B	26.03B	24.74B	22.21B
Total Liabilities	57.97B	50.51B	46.46B	44.51B	42.24B	39.38B
Stockholders Equity	21.18B	19.52B	17.62B	16.68B	15.61B	14.57B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.27B	-2.72B	-527.00M	-706.00M	-2.06B	-2.52B
Operating Cash Flow	4.54B	4.64B	5.33B	3.93B	2.19B	2.85B
Investing Cash Flow	-9.72B	-7.43B	-5.93B	-4.65B	-4.29B	-4.74B
Financing Cash Flow	4.69B	2.84B	617.00M	666.00M	2.13B	1.77B

Xcel Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 73.85
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 73.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 76.74, below the 50-day MA of 79.12, and above the 200-day MA of 72.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XEL.

Xcel Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DUK	70 Outperform	$89.87B	18.17	9.92%	3.63%	4.80%	14.44%
AEP	69 Neutral	$61.15B	16.75	12.85%	3.26%	7.66%	37.42%
SO	68 Neutral	$93.90B	21.20	13.06%	3.43%	9.40%	-6.05%
EXC	67 Neutral	$44.11B	15.63	10.31%	3.67%	6.07%	15.20%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
D	63 Neutral	$50.75B	20.22	9.27%	4.67%	12.72%	4.90%
XEL	61 Neutral	$42.99B	22.17	9.45%	3.09%	3.32%	-2.30%

Xcel Energy Corporate Events

Xcel Energy Appoints Maria Demaree to Board

On December 17, 2025, Xcel Energy‘s Board of Directors welcomed Maria Demaree as a new board member, expanding the board’s size from 11 to 12 members. Ms. Demaree, an experienced executive from Lockheed Martin with decades of leadership in national security and digital transformation, was appointed to the Audit Committee and the Operations, Nuclear, Environmental, and Safety Committee, reinforcing Xcel Energy’s commitment to strategic oversight in key areas.

Xcel Energy Announces Bond Purchase Offer

On December 15, 2025, Xcel Energy announced the initiation of offers to purchase up to $345 million of outstanding first mortgage bonds from its subsidiary, Northern States Power Company. This strategic move is aimed at managing the company’s debt portfolio and could impact its financial stability and market positioning.

Xcel Energy’s PSCo Seeks Electric Rate Increase

On November 21, 2025, Public Service Company of Colorado (PSCo), a subsidiary of Xcel Energy Inc., filed for an electric rate increase with the Colorado Public Utilities Commission, seeking an additional $356 million in revenue. This request, which includes a 9.8% return on equity and a projected rate base of $13 billion, aims to cover investments and operational costs, with a decision expected by the third quarter of 2026.

Xcel Energy Subsidiary Seeks $175M Rate Increase

On November 20, 2025, Southwestern Public Service Company, a subsidiary of Xcel Energy, filed for a $175 million increase in base rate revenue with the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission. This request, driven by retail revenue growth and capital investment for clean energy, is expected to impact stakeholders with a decision anticipated by the fourth quarter of 2026.

Xcel Energy’s Rate Increase Approved by Wisconsin Commission

In March 2025, Northern States Power Company-Wisconsin, a subsidiary of Xcel Energy, filed for a multi-year rate increase with the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin. On November 6, 2025, the Commission verbally approved a rate increase, resulting in an estimated $126 million rise for electric utilities and $22 million for natural gas utilities over the next two years. The final decision is expected in December 2025, with new rates effective January 2026.

Xcel Energy Issues $900M Junior Subordinated Notes

On October 7, 2025, Xcel Energy Inc. issued $900 million in 6.25% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2085, under an agreement with major financial institutions including BofA Securities and J.P. Morgan. This move is part of their financial strategy to strengthen their capital structure and support long-term growth, impacting their operational capabilities and market positioning.

Xcel Energy Settles Marshall Fire Claims for $640M

Xcel Energy has reached settlement agreements related to the Marshall Fire that occurred in Boulder County, Colorado, in December 2021. The settlements, which involve multiple parties, will see Xcel Energy’s subsidiary, Public Service Company of Colorado, pay approximately $640 million, with $350 million covered by insurance. Despite the financial impact, Xcel Energy reaffirms its 2025 earnings guidance, indicating confidence in its financial stability and ongoing operations.