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Exelon
(NASDAQ:EXC)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$46.00
â–¼(-2.17% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
EXC scores as a moderate-quality utility: solid revenue growth and stable profitability are offset by persistently negative free cash flow and high leverage. Valuation (mid-teens P/E and ~3.7% yield) is supportive, but technicals remain weak with the stock trading below major moving averages. The earnings call outlook is constructive with reaffirmed guidance and long-term growth targets, though elevated regulatory and credit-related risks keep the overall score in the middle range.
Positive Factors
Regulated revenue growth
Exelon’s core regulated distribution business delivered sustained top-line growth to $24.8B TTM with stable utility‑level margins near 11%. A rising rate base and regulated tariffs underpin predictable cash flows and earnings durability, supporting multi-year revenue visibility.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Material leverage (debt >$50B; D/E ~1.7) constrains financial flexibility and heightens sensitivity to interest rates and credit-rating actions. With large ongoing capex, elevated debt limits downside resilience and raises refinancing and covenant risk over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated revenue growth
Exelon’s core regulated distribution business delivered sustained top-line growth to $24.8B TTM with stable utility‑level margins near 11%. A rising rate base and regulated tariffs underpin predictable cash flows and earnings durability, supporting multi-year revenue visibility.
Read all positive factors
Exelon Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Natural Gas Customers
Indicates the number of customers using natural gas services, reflecting market penetration and potential for revenue growth in this segment.
Indicates the number of customers using natural gas services, reflecting market penetration and potential for revenue growth in this segment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyExelon (EXC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$47.33B
Dividend Yield3.68%
Average Volume (3M)7.92M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.9
Beta (1Y)-0.12
Revenue Growth4.58%
EPS Growth1.43%
CountryUS
Employees20,000
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.74
Shares Outstanding1,023,208,100
10 Day Avg. Volume8,164,830
30 Day Avg. Volume7,921,854
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.34
Price to Book (P/B)1.53
Price to Sales (P/S)1.82
P/FCF Ratio-19.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.20
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$48.93Price Target Upside4.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)2.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$25.27B
Exelon Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Exelon Corporation, a utility holding company established in 1999 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, operates across the United States and Canada. The company primarily focuses on the generation, delivery, and marketing of energy. It maintain...
How the Company Makes Money
Exelon makes money primarily through regulated utility operations. Its utilities earn revenue by charging customers for electric delivery service (distribution), which is generally set under state regulatory frameworks via approved tariffs and rat...
Exelon Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced concrete operational and financial strengths—reaffirmed guidance, strong reliability, disciplined capital rebalancing, meaningful transmission growth opportunities, progress on financing, and targeted cost savings—against notable regulatory and market risks, primarily the withdrawal of the Pennsylvania rate cases, PICO credit pressure, and an industry-wide generation shortfall/PJM reliability concerns. Management presented proactive mitigation steps (capital reprioritization, $350M O&M savings, active transmission bids, and customer relief measures) and maintained guidance and credit targets, implying confidence in execution despite heightened regulatory uncertainty.Positive Updates
Adjusted Operating Earnings and Guidance Reaffirmed
Reported adjusted operating earnings of $0.91 per share in Q1 2026 (vs. $0.92 in Q1 2025, down ~1.1% year-over-year) and management affirmed full-year 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance of $2.81 to $2.91 per share and long-term operating earnings growth outlook near the top end of the 5%–7% range.
Negative Updates
Withdrawal of Pennsylvania (PICO) Rate Cases and Political/Regulatory Risk
PICO withdrew recently filed electric and gas rate cases citing customer affordability and stakeholder feedback; decision introduces timing uncertainty, highlights heightened regulatory scrutiny (governor's letter on returns/transparency), and increases near-term regulatory risk in Pennsylvania.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted Operating Earnings and Guidance Reaffirmed
Reported adjusted operating earnings of $0.91 per share in Q1 2026 (vs. $0.92 in Q1 2025, down ~1.1% year-over-year) and management affirmed full-year 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance of $2.81 to $2.91 per share and long-term operating earnings growth outlook near the top end of the 5%–7% range.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Exelon reaffirmed 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance of $2.81–$2.91 per share (Q1 was $0.91), expects Q2 to be ~15% of the midpoint and the first half to represent ~47% of full‑year earnings, and reiterated long‑term operating earnings growth from 2025–2029 near the top of a 5%–7% range; the company plans to deploy ~ $10 billion of capital in 2026 and $41.7 billion over the next four years (part of a revised $47.17 billion plan through 2029), targeting ~7.9% annualized rate base growth and 16% transmission rate base growth through 2029, a 2026 consolidated ROE of 9%–10%, funding the plan with ~$21.8B internal cash, $13.1B utility debt, $3.4B holding‑co debt and ~$3.4B equity (with $850M equity for 2026 already priced via ATM), having completed ~43% ($2.3B) of planned long‑term debt financing, maintaining expense discipline (nearly flat 2024–2026, ≤2% adjusted O&M growth through 2029), delivering $350M incremental O&M savings in 2027, preserving $12B–$17B of upside opportunities, and targeting ~14% credit metrics at Moody’s and S&P.Exelon Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
73
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 24.79B | 24.26B | 23.03B | 21.73B | 19.08B | 17.94B |
| Gross Profit | 5.98B | 6.77B | 9.40B | 8.93B | 8.03B | 7.01B |
| EBITDA | 8.92B | 9.06B | 8.18B | 7.94B | 7.17B | 9.38B |
| Net Income | 2.78B | 2.77B | 2.46B | 2.33B | 2.17B | 1.71B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 117.55B | 116.57B | 107.78B | 101.86B | 95.35B | 133.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.27B | 1.15B | 357.00M | 445.00M | 407.00M | 672.00M |
| Total Debt | 51.46B | 50.55B | 46.65B | 44.01B | 40.05B | 34.54B |
| Total Liabilities | 88.23B | 87.77B | 80.86B | 76.10B | 70.61B | 98.22B |
| Stockholders Equity | 29.32B | 28.80B | 26.92B | 25.75B | 24.74B | 34.39B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.16B | -2.27B | -1.53B | -2.71B | -2.28B | -4.97B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.78B | 6.25B | 5.57B | 4.70B | 4.87B | 3.01B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.94B | -8.53B | -7.04B | -7.38B | -6.99B | -3.32B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.88B | 2.53B | 1.31B | 2.68B | 1.59B | 758.00M |
Exelon Technical Analysis
Positive
47.02
Price Trends
45.44
Positive
46.50
Positive
45.28
Positive
Market Momentum
0.45
Negative
55.44
Neutral
80.28
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 47.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.93, above the 50-day MA of 45.44, and above the 200-day MA of 45.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.28 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EXC.
Exelon Risk Analysis
Exelon disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Exelon reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Exelon Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $180.13B | 21.87 | 15.24% | 2.84% | 11.51% | 47.33% | |
70 Outperform | $73.48B | 19.83 | 11.86% | 3.25% | 9.38% | 31.12% | |
66 Neutral | $107.23B | 24.14 | 12.28% | 3.40% | 8.33% | -6.26% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $98.05B | 19.26 | 9.85% | 3.61% | 7.21% | 8.97% | |
61 Neutral | $59.62B | 19.94 | 10.51% | 4.59% | 19.15% | 27.09% | |
59 Neutral | $47.33B | 16.88 | 9.76% | 3.68% | 4.58% | 1.43% |
* Utilities Sector Average
EXC
Exelon
46.26
4.84
11.67%
AEP
American Electric Power
135.05
34.96
34.93%
D
Dominion Energy
67.79
12.80
23.27%
DUK
Duke Energy
125.77
12.66
11.20%
NEE
NextEra Energy
86.37
15.41
21.71%
SO
Southern Co
95.12
6.86
7.77%
Exelon Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Exelon Affirms 2026 Outlook Amid Q1 Earnings Update
Positive
May 6, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Exelon reported first-quarter 2026 GAAP net income of $0.90 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $0.91 per share, slightly below the prior-year period, while affirming its full-year 2026 earnings guidance of $2.81 to $2.91 ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Exelon Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
At Exelon Corporation’s Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on April 28, 2026, investors elected all nominated directors, with each receiving strong majority support and broker non-votes recorded where applicable. The results reinforce conti...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Exelon Backs Affordability, Withdraws PECO Rate Review Petitions
Positive
Apr 16, 2026
On April 16, 2026, PECO, Exelon’s Pennsylvania utility subsidiary, withdrew its recently filed electric and natural gas distribution rate review petitions with the state regulator, citing severe cost-of-living pressures on households and bus...
Private Placements and Financing
Exelon Expands Long-Term Debt with New 2036 Notes
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
On February 20, 2026, Exelon Corporation issued and sold $775 million in aggregate principal amount of 4.950% Notes due 2036, expanding its long-term debt profile. The transaction underscores the company’s continued access to capital markets...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Exelon Posts Strong 2025 Results, Sets 2026 Earnings Outlook
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Exelon on Feb. 12, 2026 reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing GAAP net income of $0.58 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $0.59 per share for the quarter, yielding full-year GAAP earnings of $2.73 and adjusted earnin...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.