Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Exelon (EXC)
NASDAQ:EXC
Top Page
Exelon
(NASDAQ:EXC)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$51.00
â–²(6.72% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/21/26
EXC scores as a moderately attractive utility: positive guidance and a credible multi-year regulated growth/capex plan support the outlook, and technicals show favorable momentum. The main constraint is financial flexibility—elevated leverage and consistently negative free cash flow—while valuation is fair with a supportive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Large regulated capex & transmission pipeline
A $41.3B multi‑year utility capex program targeted at transmission creates durable, regulated rate‑base growth (~7.9% through 2029). By converting capital into rate base, Exelon can sustain earnings growth and predictable cash flows over years as transmission investments earn regulated returns.
Industry‑leading operational reliability
Consistently top‑quartile reliability is a structural competitive advantage for a utility: it reduces outage costs, supports favorable regulatory outcomes, strengthens franchise value, and underpins customer and regulator trust—factors that persistently protect earnings and enable smoother rate recovery.
O&M discipline and sustainable cost savings
Material O&M savings and a disciplined expense plan improve margin sustainability amid heavy capex. Controlling operating costs by ~$580M annually helps offset higher depreciation and interest, supporting long‑term regulated cash flow conversion and preserving room for shareholder distributions.
Negative Factors
High leverage and thinner equity base
Elevated leverage and a materially thinner equity base reduce financial flexibility and raise refinancing and rating sensitivity. With debt heavy relative to equity, higher interest rates or weaker cash conversion could force more costly financing or additional equity issuance, pressuring long‑term returns.
Persistently negative free cash flow
Ongoing negative free cash flow means internal cash generation doesn't fully fund large capex, requiring steady external financing. Over time this reliance increases refinancing risk, dilutive equity needs, and sensitivity to credit markets, constraining discretionary spending and balance‑sheet resilience.
Regulatory and timing uncertainty
Pending rate cases, partial reconciliation outcomes and jurisdictional timing risks can materially alter allowed returns and cash recovery of investments. Regulatory delays or unfavorable rulings can defer or reduce earnings from planned transmission builds, making long‑term cash flows and returns less certain.
Exelon (EXC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$48.32B
Dividend Yield3.68%
Average Volume (3M)8.72M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.3
Beta (1Y)-0.07
Revenue Growth6.07%
EPS Growth15.20%
CountryUS
Employees20,000
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.59
Shares Outstanding1,022,892,600
10 Day Avg. Volume9,856,890
30 Day Avg. Volume8,722,960
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.35
Price to Book (P/B)1.53
Price to Sales (P/S)1.82
P/FCF Ratio-19.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.19
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$49.23Price Target Upside3.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Exelon Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionExelon Corporation, a utility services holding company, engages in the energy generation, delivery, and marketing businesses in the United States and Canada. It owns nuclear, fossil, wind, hydroelectric, biomass, and solar generating facilities. The company also sells electricity to wholesale and retail customers; and sells natural gas, renewable energy, and other energy-related products and services. Additionally, it is involved in the purchase and regulated retail sale of electricity and natural gas; and transmission and distribution of electricity, and distribution of natural gas to retail customers. Further, the company offers support services, including legal, human resources, information technology, financial, supply management, accounting, engineering, customer operations, distribution and transmission planning, asset management, system operations, and power procurement services. It serves distribution utilities, municipalities, cooperatives, and financial institutions, as well as commercial, industrial, governmental, and residential customers. Exelon Corporation was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyExelon generates revenue through several key streams. The primary revenue source is the sale of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers through its utility subsidiaries. Additionally, Exelon Generation earns revenue by selling electricity in wholesale markets, derived from its extensive fleet of power generation facilities. The company also benefits from capacity payments and ancillary services provided to the grid. Significant partnerships with renewable energy developers and investments in clean technology initiatives further enhance Exelon's revenue potential. Furthermore, regulatory frameworks and incentives for clean energy projects contribute positively to Exelon's earnings, as the company continues to transition towards more sustainable energy solutions.
Exelon Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Natural Gas Customers
Indicates the number of customers using natural gas services, reflecting market penetration and potential for revenue growth in this segment.
Indicates the number of customers using natural gas services, reflecting market penetration and potential for revenue growth in this segment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyExelon Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a strong operational and financial performance with clear, actionable growth plans—notably a $41.3 billion capital program, transmission opportunity pipeline, durable cost savings, and continued top-quartile reliability. Management provided constructive regulatory wins and set 2026 guidance above the prior midpoint, while also outlining a disciplined financing and credit plan. Key risks include partial recovery at BGE, supply-side affordability pressures, regulatory timing uncertainty across jurisdictions, financing cost sensitivity, and tax/legal clarity (CAMT). Overall, positive momentum and execution credibility outweigh the manageable regulatory and market headwinds, but these risks warrant monitoring.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year and Quarterly Earnings
2025 GAAP EPS of $2.73 and adjusted (non-GAAP) operating EPS of $2.77; Q4 GAAP $0.58 and non-GAAP $0.59. Adjusted 2026 operating earnings guidance of $2.81 to $2.91 per share (midpoint-to-midpoint growth above 6% vs prior disclosures).
Consistent Multi-Year Growth Track Record
Since 2021 achieved a 7.4% annual earnings growth rate and delivered 8% rate base growth in 2025, underpinning confidence in forward guidance and long-term plan.
Large, Actionable Capital Plan with Transmission Focus
Updated four-year capital plan of $41.3 billion (a $3.3 billion or 9% increase vs prior four-year plan), with ~70% of the plan-over-plan increase (~$2.3 billion) driven by transmission. Expect to invest almost $10 billion in 2026 and project ~7.9% annualized rate base growth through 2029.
Robust Transmission Opportunity Pipeline
Line of sight to an additional $12–$17 billion of transmission opportunities over the next decade, $1.2 billion of incremental investment recommended in recent PJM window, and >$1 billion exposure in MISO Tranche 2.1; transmission rate base CAGR forecasted to grow over 15% from 2025 through guidance period.
Industry-Leading Operational Reliability
Utilities maintained top-quartile reliability (ranked 1, 2, 4 and 7 vs peers based on 2024 benchmarking), delivering top-quartile reliability for over a decade. During Winter Storm FERN fewer than 1% of customers experienced outages; nearly 11 million electric and gas customers served.
Cost Discipline and O&M Savings
Achieved approximately $580 million in annual O&M savings versus an inflation baseline, holding expense growth nearly flat from 2024 to 2026 and targeting ≤2.5% adjusted O&M growth through 2029.
Regulatory Milestones and Rate Case Outcomes
Closed final settlements: Atlantic City Electric settlement supporting recovery of ~$54 million at a 9.6% ROE (rates effective Dec 2025); Delmarva Gas settlement supporting a $21.5 million revenue requirement at 9.6% ROE (rates effective early 2026); final reconciliation orders at ComEd and BGE (partial recovery at BGE).
Customer Affordability and Economic Impact
Customers' utility portion of average bill as % of median income remained relatively flat since 2021 (up only 10 bps); customer bills 19%–20% below national averages. Since 2021: reduced annual customer interruptions by ~2 million, saved customers ~$1 billion in avoided outage costs last year, supported 20,000 jobs employed directly and sustained ~50,000 jobs, and drove nearly $60 billion in economic activity.
Balance Sheet Progress and Financing Plan
Issued $1 billion of convertible debt in December; plan to fund $41.3 billion with $22 billion internally generated cash, $13 billion utility debt, $3 billion holding company debt and modest equity. Equity policy ~40% implies $3.4 billion equity need over four years (~$850 million annually, <2% of market cap); $700 million of equity needs already priced in 2025 via ATM. Average credit metrics at year-end 2025 were 13.5%, ~150 bps above Moody’s 12% downgrade threshold, targeting ~14% over plan.
Negative Updates
Partial Recovery in BGE Reconciliation
Final BGE reconciliation resulted in roughly half of the requested recovery being granted, requiring realignment of capital spending and representing a regulatory setback in that jurisdiction.
Supply-Side Affordability and Reliability Pressure
Supply portion of average monthly residential bills in the Mid-Atlantic has increased up to ~80% over the last five years; since July 2024 PJM customers have paid >$32 billion as market supply declined by ~1.2 GW, increasing urgency for new generation and raising affordability concerns.
Regulatory and Timing Uncertainty
Several material regulatory matters remain pending (Pepco Maryland base case with final order expected August; ComEd multiyear grid plan final order expected December; decisions and timing in Pennsylvania still undecided). These timing uncertainties can affect rate case outcomes and near-term earnings.
Financing Headwinds and Sensitivity
Rising financing costs and financing lag were noted as considerations versus rate base growth; financing assumptions and the 40% equity funding policy create sensitivity that could pressure near-term EPS if costs or timing change.
Tax and Policy Execution Risk
Ongoing uncertainty around corporate alternative minimum tax (CAMT) tax repairs deduction; without tax repairs the consolidated credit metric would average closer to ~13% (vs disclosed ~13.5–14%), posing potential capital structure and credit-rating risk until clarity is achieved.
Long Lead Times for Some Transmission Projects
Several large transmission projects (e.g., MISO Tranche 2.1) have long in-service dates (MISO project noted to go into service in 2034), meaning material upside may take years to contribute to rate base and earnings.
Affordability Remains Political and Legislative Focus
Intense public and legislative pressure in states (PA, MD, NJ, DE) around resource adequacy and affordability, requiring continued engagement and potential compromise; outcomes are uncertain and could affect regulated returns or program design.
Company Guidance
Exelon initiated 2026 operating earnings guidance of $2.81–$2.91 per share (targeting midpoint or better), with Q1 expected to be ~31% of the midpoint; this follows 2025 adjusted operating EPS of $2.77 ($2.73 GAAP) and Q4 non‑GAAP $0.59/$0.58 GAAP. The company plans to deploy ~$10 billion in 2026 and $41.3 billion of utility CapEx over the next four years (a $3.3 billion, ~9% increase), driving ~7.9% annualized rate base growth (nearly $23 billion added 2025–2029), with >70% (~$2.3 billion) of the plan‑over‑plan increase in transmission and transmission rate‑base CAGR of >15%; management has line‑of‑sight to an additional $12–$17 billion of transmission opportunities. Financial targets include earned ROEs of 9%–10%, annualized EPS growth of 5%–7% through 2029 (expecting to be near the top end), dividend growth of 5% with a $1.68 dividend in 2026, adjusted O&M growth ≤2.5% through 2029 (nearly flat 2024–2026) and ~$580 million of annual O&M savings; funding is expected to be $22 billion internally generated cash, $13 billion utility debt, $3 billion holding‑co debt and modest equity (~$3.4 billion total equity over four years, ~40% of incremental funding, ≈$850M/year, $700M already priced), supported by a Dec convertible issuance of $1 billion and average credit metrics ~13.5% (target ~14%).Exelon Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability is steady for a regulated utility (net margins ~10–11%) and operating cash flow improved, but the balance sheet is pressured by materially higher leverage (debt-to-equity ~3.18 in 2025 alongside a large drop in equity) and free cash flow is persistently negative, limiting flexibility despite operational resilience.Income Statement
Revenue has generally trended upward from 2022–2024, but 2025 shows a notable decline (about -24%), creating near-term top-line volatility. Profitability is steady for a regulated utility: net margins are consistently around ~10–11% and gross margin improved in 2025 versus prior years. Net income has grown from 2020–2025 overall, but the sharp 2025 revenue contraction and mixed operating profitability signals temper the score.66
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage is the key constraint. Total debt has risen over time, and debt relative to equity increased materially in 2025 (debt-to-equity ~3.18) alongside a large drop in equity versus 2024, which reduces balance-sheet flexibility. Returns on equity improved and appear strong in 2025, but that improvement is partly occurring with higher leverage and a thinner equity base, increasing financial risk.48
Neutral
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow is positive and has improved versus 2023–2024, but free cash flow remains negative every year shown (including 2025), indicating ongoing cash needs after capital spending. Free cash flow improved in 2025 versus 2024, yet it is still meaningfully below zero and negative relative to net income, suggesting earnings are not translating into discretionary cash generation. This pattern is common in capital-intensive utilities, but it still limits financial flexibility.44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 24.26B | 23.03B | 21.73B | 19.08B | 17.94B |
| Gross Profit | 6.77B | 9.40B | 8.93B | 8.03B | 7.01B |
| EBITDA | 8.79B | 8.18B | 7.94B | 7.17B | 9.38B |
| Net Income | 2.77B | 2.46B | 2.33B | 2.17B | 1.71B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 116.57B | 107.78B | 101.86B | 95.35B | 133.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.15B | 357.00M | 445.00M | 407.00M | 672.00M |
| Total Debt | 50.55B | 46.65B | 44.01B | 40.05B | 34.54B |
| Total Liabilities | 87.77B | 80.86B | 76.10B | 70.61B | 98.22B |
| Stockholders Equity | 28.80B | 26.92B | 25.75B | 24.74B | 34.39B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.27B | -1.53B | -2.71B | -2.28B | -4.97B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.25B | 5.57B | 4.70B | 4.87B | 3.01B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.53B | -7.04B | -7.38B | -6.99B | -3.32B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.53B | 1.31B | 2.68B | 1.59B | 758.00M |
Exelon Technical Analysis
Positive
47.79
Price Trends
44.39
Positive
45.19
Positive
44.14
Positive
Market Momentum
0.93
Negative
65.75
Neutral
70.22
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 47.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.33, above the 50-day MA of 44.39, and above the 200-day MA of 44.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.93 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EXC.
Exelon Risk Analysis
Exelon disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Exelon reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Exelon Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $68.84B | 19.11 | 12.33% | 3.25% | 7.66% | 37.42% | |
71 Outperform | $97.39B | 19.81 | 9.74% | 3.61% | 4.80% | 14.44% | |
70 Outperform | $190.06B | 27.63 | 13.05% | 2.84% | 26.96% | -6.80% | |
69 Neutral | $100.24B | 23.13 | 12.54% | 3.40% | 9.40% | -6.05% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $48.32B | 17.27 | 9.94% | 3.68% | 6.07% | 15.20% | |
65 Neutral | $55.27B | 22.02 | 9.27% | 4.59% | 12.72% | 4.90% |
* Utilities Sector Average
EXC
Exelon
47.79
5.57
13.20%
AEP
American Electric Power
129.37
26.51
25.78%
D
Dominion Energy
65.96
11.68
21.51%
DUK
Duke Energy
126.78
14.83
13.24%
NEE
NextEra Energy
92.18
23.52
34.26%
SO
Southern Co
94.30
8.24
9.57%
Exelon Corporate Events
Private Placements and Financing
Exelon Expands Long-Term Debt with New 2036 Notes
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
On February 20, 2026, Exelon Corporation issued and sold $775 million in aggregate principal amount of 4.950% Notes due 2036, expanding its long-term debt profile. The transaction underscores the company’s continued access to capital markets and may support ongoing investment needs or refinancing activities, with implications for its balance sheet management and financing costs over the coming decade.
The most recent analyst rating on (EXC) stock is a Hold with a $51.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exelon stock, see the EXC Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Exelon Posts Strong 2025 Results, Sets 2026 Earnings Outlook
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Exelon on Feb. 12, 2026 reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing GAAP net income of $0.58 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $0.59 per share for the quarter, yielding full-year GAAP earnings of $2.73 and adjusted earnings of $2.77 per share, up from 2024 despite a modest year-on-year dip in quarterly profit. The company cited higher regulated utility earnings driven by distribution and transmission rate increases, favorable weather at PECO and elevated capital investment, partly offset by higher taxes, interest, depreciation and holding-company costs, including contributions to its Customer Relief Fund.
Management highlighted a $41.3 billion four-year capital expenditure plan expected to deliver 7.9% rate base growth and place operating EPS growth near the top of its 5%–7% target range through 2029, supported by an updated financing strategy that contemplates $3.4 billion of equity issuance over four years. Exelon also initiated 2026 adjusted earnings guidance of $2.81–$2.91 per share and noted that all its utilities achieved first-quartile reliability performance on industry outage metrics, reinforcing its grid-modernization narrative and signaling continued balance between shareholder returns, infrastructure spending and customer affordability.
The most recent analyst rating on (EXC) stock is a Buy with a $55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exelon stock, see the EXC Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Exelon Completes $1 Billion Convertible Notes Sale
Neutral
Dec 4, 2025
On December 4, 2025, Exelon Corporation completed the sale of $1 billion in Convertible Senior Notes due 2029, which included a $100 million option for additional Notes. These Notes, offered to qualified institutional buyers, bear a fixed interest rate of 3.25% and are convertible into cash or a combination of cash and shares of Exelon’s common stock. The proceeds, estimated at $987.5 million, will be used to repay or refinance debt or for general corporate purposes. This strategic financial move positions Exelon to manage its debt effectively while maintaining flexibility in its capital structure, potentially impacting its market standing and stakeholder interests.
The most recent analyst rating on (EXC) stock is a Sell with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exelon stock, see the EXC Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board Changes
Exelon Announces Executive Leadership Changes
Neutral
Nov 26, 2025
On November 26, 2025, Exelon Corporation announced the departure of David Glockner, Executive Vice President of Compliance, Audit, and Risk, effective January 1, 2026. Following his departure, Jeanne Jones will expand her role to include audit and risk responsibilities, while Colette Honorable will take on compliance duties, reflecting a strategic realignment of executive roles within the company.
The most recent analyst rating on (EXC) stock is a Hold with a $52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exelon stock, see the EXC Stock Forecast page.
Legal Proceedings
Exelon Reaches Settlement in Stockholder Derivative Action
Neutral
Nov 24, 2025
On November 18, 2025, the United States District Court for the Northern District of Illinois granted preliminary approval for a proposed settlement of a consolidated stockholder derivative action involving Exelon Corporation. The settlement, reached through mediation by the Special Litigation Committee and the Independent Review Committee of Exelon’s Board, aims to resolve claims related to alleged breaches of fiduciary duty and other violations by Exelon’s officers and directors. The court’s approval of this settlement could impact Exelon’s operations and its stakeholders, as it addresses past legal challenges and aims to prevent future litigation related to these claims.
The most recent analyst rating on (EXC) stock is a Hold with a $52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exelon stock, see the EXC Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.