Exelon (EXC)
NASDAQ:EXC
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Exelon
(NASDAQ:EXC)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$51.00
â–²(3.39% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/21/26
EXC scores as a moderately attractive utility: positive guidance and a credible multi-year regulated growth/capex plan support the outlook, and technicals show favorable momentum. The main constraint is financial flexibility—elevated leverage and consistently negative free cash flow—while valuation is fair with a supportive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Large regulated capex & transmission pipeline
A $41.3B multi‑year utility capex program targeted at transmission creates durable, regulated rate‑base growth (~7.9% through 2029). By converting capital into rate base, Exelon can sustain earnings growth and predictable cash flows over years as transmission investments earn regulated returns.
Negative Factors
High leverage and thinner equity base
Elevated leverage and a materially thinner equity base reduce financial flexibility and raise refinancing and rating sensitivity. With debt heavy relative to equity, higher interest rates or weaker cash conversion could force more costly financing or additional equity issuance, pressuring long‑term returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large regulated capex & transmission pipeline
A $41.3B multi‑year utility capex program targeted at transmission creates durable, regulated rate‑base growth (~7.9% through 2029). By converting capital into rate base, Exelon can sustain earnings growth and predictable cash flows over years as transmission investments earn regulated returns.
Read all positive factors
Exelon (EXC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$50.46B
Dividend Yield3.68%
Average Volume (3M)9.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.9
Beta (1Y)-0.06
Revenue Growth6.07%
EPS Growth15.20%
CountryUS
Employees20,000
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.59
Shares Outstanding1,022,892,600
10 Day Avg. Volume7,665,688
30 Day Avg. Volume9,000,082
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.35
Price to Book (P/B)1.53
Price to Sales (P/S)1.82
P/FCF Ratio-19.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.69
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.32
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$52.23Price Target Upside5.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)2.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$25.16B
Exelon Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Exelon Corporation, a utility services holding company, engages in the energy generation, delivery, and marketing businesses in the United States and Canada. It owns nuclear, fossil, wind, hydroelectric, biomass, and solar generating facilities. T...
How the Company Makes Money
Exelon generates revenue through several key streams. The primary revenue source is the sale of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers through its utility subsidiaries. Additionally, Exelon Generation earn...
Exelon Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Natural Gas Customers
Indicates the number of customers using natural gas services, reflecting market penetration and potential for revenue growth in this segment.
Indicates the number of customers using natural gas services, reflecting market penetration and potential for revenue growth in this segment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyExelon Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a strong operational and financial performance with clear, actionable growth plans—notably a $41.3 billion capital program, transmission opportunity pipeline, durable cost savings, and continued top-quartile reliability. Management provided constructive regulatory wins and set 2026 guidance above the prior midpoint, while also outlining a disciplined financing and credit plan. Key risks include partial recovery at BGE, supply-side affordability pressures, regulatory timing uncertainty across jurisdictions, financing cost sensitivity, and tax/legal clarity (CAMT). Overall, positive momentum and execution credibility outweigh the manageable regulatory and market headwinds, but these risks warrant monitoring.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year and Quarterly Earnings
2025 GAAP EPS of $2.73 and adjusted (non-GAAP) operating EPS of $2.77; Q4 GAAP $0.58 and non-GAAP $0.59. Adjusted 2026 operating earnings guidance of $2.81 to $2.91 per share (midpoint-to-midpoint growth above 6% vs prior disclosures).
Negative Updates
Partial Recovery in BGE Reconciliation
Final BGE reconciliation resulted in roughly half of the requested recovery being granted, requiring realignment of capital spending and representing a regulatory setback in that jurisdiction.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year and Quarterly Earnings
2025 GAAP EPS of $2.73 and adjusted (non-GAAP) operating EPS of $2.77; Q4 GAAP $0.58 and non-GAAP $0.59. Adjusted 2026 operating earnings guidance of $2.81 to $2.91 per share (midpoint-to-midpoint growth above 6% vs prior disclosures).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Exelon initiated 2026 operating earnings guidance of $2.81–$2.91 per share (targeting midpoint or better), with Q1 expected to be ~31% of the midpoint; this follows 2025 adjusted operating EPS of $2.77 ($2.73 GAAP) and Q4 non‑GAAP $0.59/$0.58 GAAP. The company plans to deploy ~$10 billion in 2026 and $41.3 billion of utility CapEx over the next four years (a $3.3 billion, ~9% increase), driving ~7.9% annualized rate base growth (nearly $23 billion added 2025–2029), with >70% (~$2.3 billion) of the plan‑over‑plan increase in transmission and transmission rate‑base CAGR of >15%; management has line‑of‑sight to an additional $12–$17 billion of transmission opportunities. Financial targets include earned ROEs of 9%–10%, annualized EPS growth of 5%–7% through 2029 (expecting to be near the top end), dividend growth of 5% with a $1.68 dividend in 2026, adjusted O&M growth ≤2.5% through 2029 (nearly flat 2024–2026) and ~$580 million of annual O&M savings; funding is expected to be $22 billion internally generated cash, $13 billion utility debt, $3 billion holding‑co debt and modest equity (~$3.4 billion total equity over four years, ~40% of incremental funding, ≈$850M/year, $700M already priced), supported by a Dec convertible issuance of $1 billion and average credit metrics ~13.5% (target ~14%).Exelon Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 24.26B | 23.03B | 21.73B | 19.08B | 17.94B |
| Gross Profit | 6.77B | 9.40B | 8.93B | 8.03B | 7.01B |
| EBITDA | 8.79B | 8.18B | 7.94B | 7.17B | 9.38B |
| Net Income | 2.77B | 2.46B | 2.33B | 2.17B | 1.71B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 116.57B | 107.78B | 101.86B | 95.35B | 133.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.15B | 357.00M | 445.00M | 407.00M | 672.00M |
| Total Debt | 50.55B | 46.65B | 44.01B | 40.05B | 34.54B |
| Total Liabilities | 87.77B | 80.86B | 76.10B | 70.61B | 98.22B |
| Stockholders Equity | 28.80B | 26.92B | 25.75B | 24.74B | 34.39B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.27B | -1.53B | -2.71B | -2.28B | -4.97B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.25B | 5.57B | 4.70B | 4.87B | 3.01B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.53B | -7.04B | -7.38B | -6.99B | -3.32B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.53B | 1.31B | 2.68B | 1.59B | 758.00M |
Exelon Technical Analysis
Positive
49.33
Price Trends
47.12
Positive
45.61
Positive
44.66
Positive
Market Momentum
0.36
Positive
58.80
Neutral
87.67
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 49.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.74, above the 50-day MA of 47.12, and above the 200-day MA of 44.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.67 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EXC.
Exelon Risk Analysis
Exelon disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Exelon reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Exelon Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $71.76B | 16.71 | 12.06% | 3.25% | 7.66% | 37.42% | |
71 Outperform | $102.82B | 18.33 | 9.69% | 3.61% | 4.80% | 14.44% | |
67 Neutral | $194.08B | 24.54 | 13.05% | 2.84% | 26.96% | -6.80% | |
66 Neutral | $109.08B | 22.16 | 12.50% | 3.40% | 9.40% | -6.05% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $50.46B | 15.92 | 9.87% | 3.68% | 6.07% | 15.20% | |
63 Neutral | $55.16B | 16.69 | 10.77% | 4.59% | 12.72% | 4.90% |
* Utilities Sector Average
EXC
Exelon
49.33
6.18
14.31%
AEP
American Electric Power
132.68
34.39
34.99%
D
Dominion Energy
62.77
14.19
29.21%
DUK
Duke Energy
132.22
19.36
17.15%
NEE
NextEra Energy
93.15
29.97
47.43%
SO
Southern Co
97.45
13.00
15.40%
Exelon Corporate Events
Private Placements and Financing
Exelon Expands Long-Term Debt with New 2036 Notes
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
On February 20, 2026, Exelon Corporation issued and sold $775 million in aggregate principal amount of 4.950% Notes due 2036, expanding its long-term debt profile. The transaction underscores the company’s continued access to capital markets...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Exelon Posts Strong 2025 Results, Sets 2026 Earnings Outlook
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Exelon on Feb. 12, 2026 reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing GAAP net income of $0.58 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $0.59 per share for the quarter, yielding full-year GAAP earnings of $2.73 and adjusted earnin...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Exelon Completes $1 Billion Convertible Notes Sale
Neutral
Dec 4, 2025
On December 4, 2025, Exelon Corporation completed the sale of $1 billion in Convertible Senior Notes due 2029, which included a $100 million option for additional Notes. These Notes, offered to qualified institutional buyers, bear a fixed interest...
Executive/Board Changes
Exelon Announces Executive Leadership Changes
Neutral
Nov 26, 2025
On November 26, 2025, Exelon Corporation announced the departure of David Glockner, Executive Vice President of Compliance, Audit, and Risk, effective January 1, 2026. Following his departure, Jeanne Jones will expand her role to include audit and...
Legal Proceedings
Exelon Reaches Settlement in Stockholder Derivative Action
Neutral
Nov 24, 2025
On November 18, 2025, the United States District Court for the Northern District of Illinois granted preliminary approval for a proposed settlement of a consolidated stockholder derivative action involving Exelon Corporation. The settlement, reach...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.