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National Grid Transco (NGG) AI Stock Analysis

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NGG

National Grid Transco

(NYSE:NGG)

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Outperform 74 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$84.00
▲(9.96% Upside)
National Grid Transco's overall score reflects strong earnings call insights and technical momentum, balanced by financial performance challenges and moderate valuation. The company's strategic investments and regulatory support are key strengths, while high capital expenditures and revenue pressures pose risks.

National Grid Transco (NGG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

National Grid Transco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNational Grid Transco (NGG) is a leading energy company focused on the transmission and distribution of natural gas and electricity across the United Kingdom and the northeastern United States. The company operates essential infrastructure, including high-voltage electricity transmission lines and extensive gas pipeline networks, ensuring reliable energy supply to millions of customers. NGG is committed to sustainability and innovation, investing in renewable energy sources and advanced technologies to improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions.
How the Company Makes MoneyNational Grid Transco generates revenue primarily through regulated energy transmission and distribution services. The company earns money by charging utility companies and consumers for the use of its infrastructure, which is regulated by government agencies to ensure fair pricing. Key revenue streams include transmission tariffs for electricity and transportation charges for natural gas, which are determined based on the volume of energy transported and the prevailing regulatory frameworks. Additionally, NGG benefits from strategic partnerships with energy producers and technology providers, which enhance its service capabilities and expand its market reach. The company's investment in renewable energy projects and energy efficiency initiatives also contributes to its revenue by aligning with growing demand for sustainable energy solutions.

National Grid Transco Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Operating Profit by Segment
Operating Profit by Segment
Reveals the profitability of each business segment, highlighting which areas are driving earnings and where there may be challenges or opportunities for growth.
Chart InsightsNational Grid's UK Electricity Transmission segment shows strong growth, reflecting a 57% investment surge, but the UK Electricity Operator faces volatility with a significant recent downturn. The 'Other' segment's losses deepen, possibly due to financial impairments like the £303 million charge on Community Offshore Wind. Despite challenges, the company remains resilient, supported by a robust capital investment plan and favorable regulatory developments. The strategic focus on pure-play networks and secured supply chain for major projects underpins future growth, although regulatory challenges persist in the UK Electricity Distribution segment.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

National Grid Transco Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
National Grid's earnings call highlights significant achievements in capital investment, regulatory approvals, and operational performance, despite facing some challenges in revenue pressures and cost management. The company's strong financial and strategic position points towards continued growth and resilience.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Capital Investment
National Grid reported a record GBP 5.1 billion of investment in the first half, up 12% year-on-year, and remains on track to deploy over GBP 11 billion of investment this year.
Strong Financial Performance
Operating profit increased by 13% to GBP 2.3 billion, and underlying earnings per share grew by 6% to 29.8p.
Progress in Strategic Infrastructure
All six Wave 1 ASTI projects are under construction, and significant progress has been made in securing the supply chain for the remaining Wave 2 projects.
Regulatory and Policy Momentum
75% of the 5-year investment plan in the U.S. is approved, and significant policy developments in New York support the Northeast Supply Enhancement pipeline.
Operational Excellence
Reliability remains strong across U.K. and U.S. networks, with a lost time injury frequency rate of 0.09, inside the group target.
Negative Updates
Pressure on U.K. Electricity Distribution Revenues
Lower revenues in U.K. Electricity Distribution due to headwinds from Ofgem's real price effects mechanism.
Challenges in U.S. Gas Availability
Adequate electricity margins are anticipated, but gas availability across the coldest days of winter remains a focus in the U.S.
Inflation and Finance Cost Pressures
Net finance costs increased by 4% due to higher average net debt and the impact of higher inflation on indexed linked debt.
Company Guidance
In the recent National Grid call, guidance was provided showcasing a strong financial outlook and continued investment in infrastructure. The company expects investment growth of around 10% per annum, with underlying earnings per share growth projected between 6% to 8%. Significant progress has been made in securing the supply chain for major projects, with over 75% of their £60 billion investment plan now underpinned by delivery mechanisms. During the first half, National Grid achieved a record capital investment of over £5 billion, aiming to deploy more than £11 billion by year-end. Additionally, an interim dividend of 16.35p per share was declared, reflecting a policy of delivering an inflation-protected dividend. The company also highlighted strong regulatory and policy support, with approximately 75% of their five-year investment plan approved within U.S. rate cases and key policy developments in both the U.K. and U.S. aimed at accelerating infrastructure delivery.

National Grid Transco Financial Statement Overview

Summary
National Grid Transco shows strong operational efficiency with high gross margins and consistent operating cash flow. However, challenges in revenue growth and high capital expenditures affect liquidity and financial flexibility. The balance sheet is stable but carries significant liabilities.
Income Statement
75
Positive
National Grid Transco shows a strong gross profit margin consistently above 75%, indicating effective management of production costs. However, net profit margin fluctuates, with a significant drop in recent years, reflecting increased expenses or reduced revenue efficiency. Revenue growth is inconsistent, peaking in 2023 but declining in 2024 and 2025, which may signal market pressures or strategic shifts impacting sales. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, suggesting operational efficiency, though EBIT margin has varied, warranting attention to operational costs.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio indicates a moderate level of leverage, typical for a regulated utility, but requires monitoring to ensure it doesn't impede future financing. The return on equity has shown variability, with a notable peak in 2023, suggesting fluctuating profitability relative to shareholder investments. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a solid asset base, but continued large liabilities could pose risks if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Operating cash flow remains strong, consistently covering net income, which is a positive sign of cash-generating capacity. However, the free cash flow is negative in most years, indicating heavy capital expenditures that exceed operating cash flow, potentially affecting liquidity. The free cash flow to net income ratio also suggests challenges in converting profits into free cash flow, highlighting a need for careful capital allocation.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue18.38B18.38B19.85B21.66B18.45B13.66B
Gross Profit18.38B14.23B14.55B13.41B11.42B8.05B
EBITDA7.17B7.63B6.83B5.59B6.04B3.93B
Net Income2.90B2.90B2.29B7.80B2.35B1.64B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets106.74B106.74B98.33B92.70B94.86B67.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments6.93B6.93B4.25B2.77B3.35B2.50B
Total Debt47.54B47.54B47.07B42.98B45.47B31.22B
Total Liabilities68.92B68.92B68.43B63.13B71.00B47.36B
Stockholders Equity37.80B37.80B29.87B29.54B23.83B19.84B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-1.97B-2.50B-514.00M573.00M-119.00M-804.00M
Operating Cash Flow6.81B6.81B6.94B6.90B5.42B3.80B
Investing Cash Flow-10.57B-10.57B-7.50B240.00M-14.22B-5.21B
Financing Cash Flow4.53B4.53B987.00M-7.17B8.82B1.50B

National Grid Transco Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price76.39
Price Trends
50DMA
73.08
Positive
100DMA
72.38
Positive
200DMA
68.72
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.67
Positive
RSI
58.97
Neutral
STOCH
43.73
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 76.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 75.79, above the 50-day MA of 73.08, and above the 200-day MA of 68.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NGG.

National Grid Transco Risk Analysis

National Grid Transco disclosed 9 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Grid Transco reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

National Grid Transco Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$96.29B20.259.60%3.39%4.07%9.94%
74
Outperform
$74.18B19.118.31%4.03%-6.02%7.24%
72
Outperform
$64.39B17.6012.85%3.20%7.66%37.42%
72
Outperform
$46.86B16.6010.31%3.36%6.07%15.20%
69
Neutral
$100.65B22.7213.06%2.99%9.40%-6.05%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
63
Neutral
$50.65B20.199.27%4.53%12.72%4.90%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NGG
National Grid Transco
76.29
15.14
24.76%
AEP
American Electric Power
119.53
25.64
27.31%
D
Dominion Energy
60.50
5.34
9.68%
DUK
Duke Energy
124.00
14.81
13.56%
EXC
Exelon
45.71
8.62
23.24%
SO
Southern Co
90.90
5.13
5.98%

National Grid Transco Corporate Events

National Grid Reports Strong Half-Year Results and CEO Transition
Nov 6, 2025

On November 6, 2025, National Grid plc announced its half-year results for the period ending September 30, 2025, highlighting a strong financial performance with a 17% increase in operating profit and a 21% rise in profit before tax. The company invested a record £5 billion in the first half of the year, with plans to invest over £11 billion annually, focusing on infrastructure resilience and economic growth. Strategic initiatives include securing supply chains, expanding talent, and supporting AI Growth Zones in the UK. Key projects and regulatory approvals are progressing well, with significant investments in electricity transmission and modernization plans in the US. Zoë Yujnovich is set to succeed John Pettigrew as CEO on November 17, 2025.

National Grid Reports Strong Half-Year Results and CEO Transition
Nov 6, 2025

On November 6, 2025, National Grid announced its half-year results for the period ending September 30, 2025, highlighting a strong operational performance with a 17% increase in statutory operating profit and a 21% rise in profit before tax compared to the previous year. The company invested a record £5 billion in the first half of the year and is on track to invest over £11 billion annually, supporting strategic initiatives such as AI Growth Zones and significant infrastructure projects in the UK and US. The announcement also marked a leadership transition, with Zoë Yujnovich set to succeed John Pettigrew as CEO on November 17, 2025.

National Grid Updates Voting Rights and Executive Share Transactions in October 2025
Oct 31, 2025

On October 1, 2025, National Grid plc announced an update on its total voting rights, reporting that as of September 30, 2025, the company had 4,961,449,896 shares with voting rights. This figure is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification requirements under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules. Additionally, on October 8, 2025, the company disclosed transactions by key executives, including the Chief Financial Officer, Chief Executive, and Chief People Officer, involving the purchase of partnership shares under the Share Incentive Plan. These transactions, conducted on October 7, 2025, were part of routine monthly purchases and were reported in compliance with the Market Abuse Regulation.

National Grid Issues Pre-Close Update for Half Year 2025/26
Oct 2, 2025

National Grid plc released a pre-close update for the six months ending 30 September 2025, indicating that the group’s performance aligns with expectations. The UK Electricity Transmission and Distribution sectors are expected to have an even profit distribution across the year, while the US regulated businesses anticipate higher profits in the second half due to fewer storms and new distribution rates. The announcement suggests stable operations and potential positive impacts on profitability, maintaining National Grid’s industry position.

National Grid Announces Voting Rights Update and New CEO Appointment
Sep 30, 2025

On September 1, 2025, National Grid plc announced an update on its voting rights, reporting a total of 4,961,315,993 shares with voting rights as of August 31, 2025. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification requirements under the FCA’s rules. Additionally, the company disclosed the appointment of Zoë Yujnovich as Chief Executive Designate, effective September 1, 2025. She was granted share awards under the Long Term Performance Plan, which align with the Directors’ Remuneration Policy approved in July 2025. These developments reflect National Grid’s ongoing commitment to transparency and strategic leadership transitions, potentially impacting shareholder engagement and corporate governance.

National Grid Announces CEO Transition and New Board Role for John Pettigrew
Sep 25, 2025

On September 24, 2025, National Grid announced that John Pettigrew, the current Chief Executive, will retire on November 16, 2025. He is set to join the Board of BAE Systems plc as a Non-executive Director and member of its Audit and Risk Committee starting February 23, 2026. This leadership transition could impact National Grid’s strategic direction and stakeholder relationships.

National Grid Announces Voting Rights Update and Prospectus Publication
Aug 29, 2025

On August 1, 2025, National Grid plc announced an update on its voting rights, revealing that as of July 31, 2025, the company had 4,961,230,104 shares with voting rights. This information is significant for shareholders to determine their interests under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules. Additionally, on August 8, 2025, National Grid disclosed transactions involving its senior management under the Market Abuse Regulation, highlighting monthly purchases of securities under the Share Incentive Plan. Furthermore, on August 19, 2025, the company published a prospectus for its Euro 20 billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme, approved by the Financial Conduct Authority, which could impact its financial strategy and stakeholder interests.

National Grid Responds to Ofgem’s RIIO-ET3 Draft Determination
Aug 27, 2025

On August 27, 2025, National Grid plc responded to Ofgem’s RIIO-ET3 Draft Determination, which is part of the ongoing process to finalize the price control for their Electricity Transmission business. The company acknowledged Ofgem’s commitment to an £80 billion investment plan but expressed concerns that the draft does not fully address the practical challenges of significantly expanding the electricity system. National Grid emphasized the need for changes to ensure the framework is investable and workable, allowing for a substantial increase in investment and efficient project progression. These adjustments are crucial for meeting business plan commitments, including accelerating energy system decarbonization and achieving cost savings for consumers.

National Grid Sells Grain LNG to Centrica and Partners
Aug 14, 2025

On August 14, 2025, National Grid plc announced the sale of its Grain LNG business to a consortium consisting of Centrica plc and Energy Capital Partners LLC for approximately £1.66 billion. This move aligns with National Grid’s strategy to streamline its operations and focus on its core network businesses, following the sale of its NG Renewables business earlier in May 2025. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and is expected to conclude later this year, marking a significant step in National Grid’s strategic refocusing efforts.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 06, 2025