National Grid Transco (NGG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $93.02B
• Dividend Yield: 4.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.07M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.13
• Revenue Growth: -7.06%
• EPS Growth: 38.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 31,425
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Regulated Electric
• EPS (TTM): 1.95
• Shares Outstanding: 994,258,240
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,219,881
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,073,120
• PEG Ratio: 2.52
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.60
• P/FCF Ratio: -14.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.23
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.61
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 22.38
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.76
• 1Y Price Target: $85.50
• Price Target Upside: 13.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.24
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $26.64B

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $105.00 ▲(39.05% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 11/06/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 11/06/25

National Grid Transco's overall score reflects strong earnings call insights and technical momentum, balanced by financial performance challenges and moderate valuation. The company's strategic investments and regulatory support are key strengths, while high capital expenditures and revenue pressures pose risks.

Positive Factors

Regulated, predictable revenue

Regulated transportation and distribution fees provide durable, predictable cash flows that underpin capital planning and dividend policy. For a network utility like National Grid, regulatory frameworks reduce revenue volatility and support long-term investment in grid resilience and decarbonisation projects.

High gross margins and strong operating cash flow

Sustained gross margins above 75% and consistent operating cash generation indicate structural operational efficiency. Strong operating cash flow supports funding of maintenance and expansion capex, helping the company sustain network reliability and finance long-term infrastructure without solely relying on external funding.

Regulatory approvals and large investment pipeline

Substantial regulatory backing and a mostly-approved investment plan de-risk future capex delivery and revenue recognition. With a large, underpinned pipeline and rapid recent deployment, National Grid secures long-term demand for its transmission assets and potential regulated returns over multi-year horizons.

Negative Factors

Heavy capital expenditure burden

Persistent negative free cash flow from large capex programs constrains balance sheet flexibility and elevates reliance on external financing. Over multiple years, high capex can pressure liquidity, limit opportunistic investments, and increase sensitivity to interest rate and market funding conditions despite operating cash generation.

Recent revenue decline

A material negative revenue growth rate signals weakening top-line momentum that could reflect regulatory headwinds or lower demand in key segments. Continued revenue contraction would limit margin expansion opportunities and raise scrutiny on management's ability to translate sizeable investments into sustained sales growth.

Moderate leverage and rising finance costs

Typical utility leverage is evident but rising indexed-linked debt and higher average net debt have increased finance costs. Moderate leverage combined with inflation-linked obligations may amplify funding costs and refinancing risk over time, reducing financial flexibility for future investments or dividend maintenance.

National Grid Transco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National Grid plc transmits and distributes electricity and gas. The company operates through UK Electricity Transmission, UK Electricity Distribution, UK Electricity System Operator, New England, and New York segments. The UK Electricity Transmission segment provides electricity transmission and construction work services in England and Wales. The UK Electricity Distribution segment offers electricity distribution services in Midlands, and South West of England and South Wales. The UK Electricity System Operator segment provides balancing services for supply and demand of electricity on Great Britain's electricity transmission system; and acts as an agent on behalf of transmission operators. The New England segment offers electricity and gas distribution, and electricity transmission services in New England. The New York segment provides electricity and gas distribution, and electricity transmission services in New York. It also engages in the provision of transmission services through electricity interconnectors and LNG importation at the Isle of Grain; sale of renewables projects; and leasing and sale of commercial property, as well as insurance activities in the United Kingdom. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

National Grid Transco generates revenue primarily through the transportation and distribution of natural gas. The company earns money by charging transportation fees to gas suppliers and consumers who use its pipeline network. These fees are often regulated by government authorities, allowing NGG to earn a stable and predictable income stream. In addition to transportation services, NGG may also engage in ancillary services such as storage and balancing of gas supplies, which can provide additional revenue. Significant partnerships with energy suppliers and regulatory bodies play a crucial role in its operations, as they ensure access to vital energy markets and compliance with industry regulations. Furthermore, investments in renewable energy infrastructure and potential carbon management services could provide new revenue opportunities as the energy landscape evolves.

National Grid Transco Financial Statement Overview

Summary

National Grid Transco shows strong operational efficiency with high gross margins and consistent operating cash flow. However, challenges in revenue growth and high capital expenditures affect liquidity and financial flexibility. The balance sheet is stable but carries significant liabilities.

Income Statement

National Grid Transco shows a strong gross profit margin consistently above 75%, indicating effective management of production costs. However, net profit margin fluctuates, with a significant drop in recent years, reflecting increased expenses or reduced revenue efficiency. Revenue growth is inconsistent, peaking in 2023 but declining in 2024 and 2025, which may signal market pressures or strategic shifts impacting sales. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, suggesting operational efficiency, though EBIT margin has varied, warranting attention to operational costs.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio indicates a moderate level of leverage, typical for a regulated utility, but requires monitoring to ensure it doesn't impede future financing. The return on equity has shown variability, with a notable peak in 2023, suggesting fluctuating profitability relative to shareholder investments. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a solid asset base, but continued large liabilities could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong, consistently covering net income, which is a positive sign of cash-generating capacity. However, the free cash flow is negative in most years, indicating heavy capital expenditures that exceed operating cash flow, potentially affecting liquidity. The free cash flow to net income ratio also suggests challenges in converting profits into free cash flow, highlighting a need for careful capital allocation.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.28B	18.38B	19.85B	21.66B	18.45B	18.45B
Gross Profit	5.10B	14.23B	14.58B	13.04B	12.35B	12.35B
EBITDA	7.25B	7.63B	6.83B	7.25B	6.43B	6.43B
Net Income	2.83B	2.90B	2.29B	7.80B	2.35B	2.35B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	103.76B	106.74B	98.33B	92.70B	94.86B	67.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.06B	6.93B	4.25B	2.73B	3.33B	2.49B
Total Debt	45.91B	47.54B	47.07B	42.98B	45.47B	31.22B
Total Liabilities	66.54B	68.92B	68.43B	63.13B	71.00B	47.36B
Stockholders Equity	37.19B	37.80B	29.87B	29.54B	23.83B	19.84B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.87B	-3.39B	-1.27B	-585.92M	340.31M	-382.67M
Operating Cash Flow	6.24B	5.27B	5.64B	5.57B	5.65B	3.59B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.99B	-10.87B	-7.83B	-14.60M	-14.79B	-4.92B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.60B	6.36B	2.62B	-5.59B	9.18B	1.42B

National Grid Transco Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 75.51
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 75.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 89.96, below the 50-day MA of 83.55, and above the 200-day MA of 74.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.90 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.07 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.79 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NGG.

National Grid Transco Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AEP	80 Outperform	$72.38B	20.09	12.33%	3.25%	7.66%	37.42%
NGG	74 Outperform	$93.02B	24.90	7.53%	4.03%	-7.06%	38.21%
DUK	71 Outperform	$101.76B	20.72	9.74%	3.61%	4.80%	14.44%
SO	68 Neutral	$109.01B	24.88	12.54%	3.40%	9.40%	-6.05%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
EXC	65 Neutral	$50.60B	18.09	9.94%	3.68%	6.07%	15.20%
D	63 Neutral	$55.49B	18.28	10.63%	4.59%	12.72%	4.90%

National Grid Transco Corporate Events

National Grid Updates Voting Rights and Discloses February Executive Share Deals

On 2 February 2026, National Grid reported that as of 31 January 2026 it had 5,198,968,690 ordinary shares in issue, of which 227,677,364 were held in treasury, leaving 4,971,291,326 shares carrying voting rights, a key reference figure for shareholders monitoring disclosure thresholds. The update provides clarity on the company’s free float and voting base, underpinning transparency for institutional holders and any investors tracking their obligations under UK disclosure rules.

The company also disclosed routine dealings by senior executives under employee share plans in early February 2026, signalling continued alignment of top management with shareholder interests. Chief executive Zoë Yujnovich received a five-year Sharesave option granted on 30 January 2026, while chief financial officer Andy Agg and chief people officer Will Serle made small monthly share purchases on 9 February 2026 via the Share Incentive Plan on the London Stock Exchange.

The most recent analyst rating on (NGG) stock is a Buy with a $105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Grid Transco stock, see the NGG Stock Forecast page.

National Grid Updates Voting Rights and Reports January Executive Share Dealings

On 2 January 2026, National Grid plc reported that as of 31 December 2025 its issued share capital comprised 5,191,884,002 ordinary shares, of which 230,310,720 were held in treasury, leaving 4,961,573,282 shares carrying voting rights; this figure serves as the reference denominator for investors assessing disclosure thresholds under UK transparency rules. Subsequent disclosures on 8 January and 16 January 2026 detailed routine share transactions by senior executives under the company’s Share Incentive Plan and interim dividend scrip arrangements, including small monthly partnership share purchases on 7 January by Chief Financial Officer Andy Agg and Chief People Officer Will Serle, and a further acquisition of dividend shares by Agg on 13 January; these moves signal ongoing alignment of management with shareholders but do not materially alter National Grid’s capital structure or governance dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (NGG) stock is a Buy with a $93.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Grid Transco stock, see the NGG Stock Forecast page.

National Grid Publishes FCA-Approved Supplementary Prospectus for €20bn EMTN Programme

On 23 January 2026, National Grid plc and its subsidiary National Grid Electricity Transmission plc announced the publication of a supplementary prospectus approved by the UK Financial Conduct Authority for their €20 billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme, originally established under a prospectus dated 19 August 2025. The supplementary document, now available via the London Stock Exchange and the FCA’s National Storage Mechanism, updates the existing debt issuance framework under which National Grid can continue to access European capital markets, supporting its ongoing financing needs for network investment and reinforcing its position as a frequent issuer in the euro-denominated bond market.

The most recent analyst rating on (NGG) stock is a Buy with a $85.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Grid Transco stock, see the NGG Stock Forecast page.

National Grid Updates Voting Share Capital After Scrip Dividend Share Issue

On 13 January 2026, National Grid plc reported a change in its share capital following the issue of 7,084,688 ordinary shares under its Scrip Dividend Scheme for the 2025/26 interim dividend. As a result, the company’s registered capital now comprises 5,198,968,690 ordinary shares, of which 230,306,051 are held in treasury, leaving 4,968,662,639 shares carrying voting rights. This updated voting share total is to be used by investors when calculating whether they must disclose new or amended holdings under UK Financial Conduct Authority disclosure and transparency rules, underscoring ongoing adjustments to National Grid’s capital base driven by shareholder participation in its scrip dividend programme.

The most recent analyst rating on (NGG) stock is a Buy with a $85.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Grid Transco stock, see the NGG Stock Forecast page.

National Grid Issues New Shares Under 2025/26 Scrip Dividend Scheme

On 12 January 2026, National Grid plc announced that it has applied to the UK Financial Conduct Authority and the London Stock Exchange for the admission to listing and trading of 7,084,688 new ordinary shares in connection with the operation of its Scrip Dividend Scheme for the 2025/26 interim dividend, payable on 13 January 2026. Under the scheme, 6,613,638 ordinary shares will be issued at 1,130.40 pence per share, while a further 94,210 American Depositary Receipts—equivalent to 471,050 ordinary shares—will be issued to US ADR holders at US$74.2334 per ADR; dealings in the new shares are expected to begin on 13 January 2026, with the new stock ranking pari passu with existing ordinary shares, modestly expanding the company’s equity base and offering shareholders a share-based alternative to cash dividends.

The most recent analyst rating on (NGG) stock is a Buy with a $85.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Grid Transco stock, see the NGG Stock Forecast page.

National Grid Issues New Shares Under 2025/26 Interim Scrip Dividend Scheme

On 12 January 2026, National Grid plc announced that it has applied to the UK Financial Conduct Authority and the London Stock Exchange for the admission to listing and trading of 7,084,688 new ordinary shares in connection with its Scrip Dividend Scheme for the 2025/26 interim dividend, payable on 13 January 2026. Under the scheme, 6,613,638 new ordinary shares will be issued at 1,130.40 pence per share, while for US investors holding American Depositary Receipts, 94,210 new ADRs representing 471,050 ordinary shares will be issued at US$74.2334 per ADR, with dealings in the new stock expected to begin on 13 January 2026 and the shares ranking pari passu with existing ordinary shares, modestly increasing the company’s equity base and offering shareholders an alternative to cash dividends.

The most recent analyst rating on (NGG) stock is a Buy with a $85.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Grid Transco stock, see the NGG Stock Forecast page.

National Grid Updates Voting Rights and Reports December Executive Share Transactions

On 1 December 2025, National Grid reported that its registered capital as of 30 November 2025 comprised 5,191,884,002 ordinary shares, of which 230,339,116 were held in treasury, leaving 4,961,544,886 shares carrying voting rights to be used by investors in calculating disclosure thresholds under UK transparency rules. During December 2025 the company also disclosed routine insider dealing notifications: on 1 December 2025 Chief Information and Digital Officer Talvis Love received 14,147 American Depositary Shares at nil cost under a 3 June 2024 Retention Award Plan vesting, with 6,865 ADSs automatically sold on the NYSE to cover tax, and on 8 December 2025 Chief Financial Officer Andy Agg made a small monthly purchase of 13 ordinary shares under the Share Incentive Plan on the London Stock Exchange, highlighting ongoing use of share-based remuneration and modest executive equity participation rather than any change in corporate strategy or capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (NGG) stock is a Buy with a $85.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Grid Transco stock, see the NGG Stock Forecast page.

National Grid Re-Appoints Deloitte as External Auditor Following Audit Tender

On December 11, 2025, National Grid plc announced the outcome of its audit tender process, resulting in the re-appointment of Deloitte LLP as its external auditor. This decision, pending shareholder approval, will see Deloitte continue in this role until the financial year ending March 2028. The process aligns with UK regulations requiring audit tenders every 10 years and rotations every 20 years, with Deloitte initially appointed in 2018. This strategic move ensures compliance and continuity in National Grid’s financial oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (NGG) stock is a Buy with a $84.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Grid Transco stock, see the NGG Stock Forecast page.

National Grid Responds to Ofgem’s RIIO-T3 Determination

On December 4, 2025, National Grid plc announced that Ofgem has published its Final Determination for the RIIO-T3 framework, which will guide the company’s electricity transmission operations from April 2026 to March 2031. The determination includes a real allowed cost of equity of 6.12% at 60% gearing, recognizing the need for significant investment to enhance power transfer capabilities. National Grid will review the determination to assess its viability and workability, with a focus on the incentive framework and cost recovery mechanisms. The company anticipates further consultation on proposed licence modifications and plans to announce its response in early March 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (NGG) stock is a Buy with a $84.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Grid Transco stock, see the NGG Stock Forecast page.