National Grid (NGG)
NYSE:NGG
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National Grid Transco
(NYSE:NGG)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$85.00
▲(12.57% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/16/26
Overall score reflects constrained financial fundamentals (structurally negative free cash flow and meaningful leverage) and weak technical momentum, partly offset by supportive earnings-call guidance tied to a large, regulatory-backed capex plan and a reasonable income-oriented valuation (3.87% yield).
Positive Factors
Regulatory approvals & policy support
Material regulatory approvals provide durable revenue visibility by underpinning allowed returns and cost recovery. With ~75% of the five‑year plan approved and RIIO‑T3 accepted, a large portion of future capex is linked to regulatory mechanisms, reducing execution and revenue risk across the investment cycle.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative free cash flow
Ongoing negative free cash flow despite positive operating cash shows capex outstripping internal funding. This structural cash shortfall increases reliance on external financing for growth and dividends, raising refinancing and execution risk if capital markets tighten or rates rise over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulatory approvals & policy support
Material regulatory approvals provide durable revenue visibility by underpinning allowed returns and cost recovery. With ~75% of the five‑year plan approved and RIIO‑T3 accepted, a large portion of future capex is linked to regulatory mechanisms, reducing execution and revenue risk across the investment cycle.
Read all positive factors
National Grid Transco Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Third Party Revenue by Segment
Tracks revenue generated from external customers in each segment, indicating the company's reliance on third-party sales and potential market demand.
Tracks revenue generated from external customers in each segment, indicating the company's reliance on third-party sales and potential market demand.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNational Grid Transco (NGG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$78.78B
Dividend Yield4.03%
Average Volume (3M)1.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.2
Beta (1Y)0.18
Revenue Growth1.13%
EPS Growth13.82%
CountryUS
Employees31,425
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.32
Shares Outstanding995,109,400
10 Day Avg. Volume752,857
30 Day Avg. Volume1,108,323
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.88
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)3.52
P/FCF Ratio-16.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.92
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.07
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)6.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$29.02B
National Grid Transco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National Grid plc transmits and distributes electricity and gas. The company operates through UK Electricity Transmission, UK Electricity Distribution, UK Electricity System Operator, New England, and New York segments. The UK Electricity Transmis...
How the Company Makes Money
National Grid Transco primarily makes money through regulated network revenues earned for providing electricity transmission and gas transportation services. Its core revenue model is based on earning allowed revenue under regulatory frameworks, w...
National Grid Transco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
National Grid's earnings call highlights significant achievements in capital investment, regulatory approvals, and operational performance, despite facing some challenges in revenue pressures and cost management. The company's strong financial and strategic position points towards continued growth and resilience.Positive Updates
Record Capital Investment
National Grid reported a record GBP 5.1 billion of investment in the first half, up 12% year-on-year, and remains on track to deploy over GBP 11 billion of investment this year.
Negative Updates
Pressure on U.K. Electricity Distribution Revenues
Lower revenues in U.K. Electricity Distribution due to headwinds from Ofgem's real price effects mechanism.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Capital Investment
National Grid reported a record GBP 5.1 billion of investment in the first half, up 12% year-on-year, and remains on track to deploy over GBP 11 billion of investment this year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
In the recent National Grid call, guidance was provided showcasing a strong financial outlook and continued investment in infrastructure. The company expects investment growth of around 10% per annum, with underlying earnings per share growth projected between 6% to 8%. Significant progress has been made in securing the supply chain for major projects, with over 75% of their £60 billion investment plan now underpinned by delivery mechanisms. During the first half, National Grid achieved a record capital investment of over £5 billion, aiming to deploy more than £11 billion by year-end. Additionally, an interim dividend of 16.35p per share was declared, reflecting a policy of delivering an inflation-protected dividend. The company also highlighted strong regulatory and policy support, with approximately 75% of their five-year investment plan approved within U.S. rate cases and key policy developments in both the U.K. and U.S. aimed at accelerating infrastructure delivery.National Grid Transco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
70
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 17.97B | 18.38B | 19.85B | 21.66B | 18.45B |
| Gross Profit | 5.87B | 14.23B | 14.58B | 13.04B | 12.35B |
| EBITDA | 8.15B | 7.63B | 6.83B | 7.25B | 6.43B |
| Net Income | 3.29B | 2.90B | 2.29B | 7.80B | 2.35B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 108.29B | 106.74B | 98.33B | 92.70B | 94.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.83B | 6.93B | 4.25B | 2.73B | 3.33B |
| Total Debt | 46.76B | 47.54B | 47.07B | 42.98B | 45.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 68.95B | 68.92B | 68.43B | 63.13B | 71.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 39.30B | 37.80B | 29.87B | 29.54B | 23.83B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -3.82B | -3.39B | -1.27B | -585.92M | 340.31M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.33B | 5.27B | 5.64B | 5.57B | 5.65B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.57B | -10.87B | -7.83B | -14.60M | -14.79B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.73B | 6.36B | 2.62B | -5.59B | 9.18B |
National Grid Transco Technical Analysis
Neutral
75.51
Price Trends
88.79
Negative
83.66
Positive
77.73
Positive
Market Momentum
0.21
Negative
47.31
Neutral
21.65
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 75.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 86.17, below the 50-day MA of 88.79, and below the 200-day MA of 77.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NGG.
National Grid Transco Risk Analysis
National Grid Transco disclosed 9 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Grid Transco reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
National Grid Transco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $68.09B | 20.32 | 11.86% | 3.25% | 9.38% | 31.12% | |
67 Neutral | $54.29B | 21.87 | 10.51% | 4.59% | 19.15% | 27.09% | |
66 Neutral | $104.33B | 20.00 | 12.28% | 3.40% | 8.33% | -6.26% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $94.29B | 16.43 | 9.85% | 3.61% | 7.21% | 8.97% | |
60 Neutral | $78.78B | 19.21 | 8.47% | 4.03% | 1.13% | 13.82% | |
59 Neutral | $44.39B | 13.66 | 9.76% | 3.68% | 4.58% | 1.43% |
* Utilities Sector Average
NGG
National Grid Transco
80.64
11.22
16.16%
AEP
American Electric Power
125.15
24.56
24.41%
D
Dominion Energy
61.73
8.02
14.93%
DUK
Duke Energy
120.95
7.91
7.00%
EXC
Exelon
43.38
0.13
0.31%
SO
Southern Co
92.55
5.19
5.93%
National Grid Transco Corporate Events
National Grid Unveils £70bn Investment Plan as FY2026 Profits and Payouts Rise
May 14, 2026
On 14 May 2026, National Grid reported full-year results for the period ended 31 March 2026, highlighting record capital investment of £11.6 billion, 10.9% asset growth and underlying earnings per share up 8% at constant currency to 78.0p. St...
National Grid Updates Voting Share Capital and Discloses Routine PDMR Dealings
Apr 30, 2026
National Grid plc reported that as of 31 March 2026 its registered capital comprised 5,198,968,690 ordinary shares, of which 225,541,858 were held in treasury, leaving 4,973,426,832 shares in issue with voting rights for regulatory disclosure calc...
National Grid Flags Modest EPS Impact in Pre-Close Update for 2025/26
Apr 13, 2026
National Grid said on 13 April 2026 that trading for the year to 31 March 2026 remained in line with expectations and prior guidance, ahead of publishing full-year results in May. The company flagged an estimated net 1 pence per share reduction to...
National Grid Updates Voting Rights and Discloses March Share Purchase by CFO
Mar 31, 2026
National Grid plc reported that as of 28 February 2026 its issued share capital comprised 5,198,968,690 ordinary shares, of which 227,659,512 were held in treasury, leaving 4,971,309,178 shares carrying voting rights. This voting rights figure ser...
National Grid Boosts £70bn Investment Plan and Accepts RIIO-T3 Price Control
Mar 2, 2026
On 2 March 2026, National Grid extended and upgraded its financial framework to fiscal 2031, outlining at least £70 billion of cumulative capital investment and targeting around 10% compound annual asset growth and 8–10% underlying EPS ...
National Grid Updates Voting Rights and Discloses February Executive Share Deals
Feb 27, 2026
On 2 February 2026, National Grid reported that as of 31 January 2026 it had 5,198,968,690 ordinary shares in issue, of which 227,677,364 were held in treasury, leaving 4,971,291,326 shares carrying voting rights, a key reference figure for shareh...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.