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CME Group
(NASDAQ:CME)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$249.00
▼(-13.44% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/17/26
The score is driven primarily by excellent financial performance (strong margins, cash generation, and conservative leverage) and a very positive latest earnings call with record results and clear 2026 execution milestones. These strengths are tempered by weak current technical momentum (trading below major moving averages with negative MACD) despite supportive valuation via a reasonable P/E and attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Profitability & Margins
CME’s exceptionally high and stable gross and net margins reflect a scalable, low-variable-cost exchange model. Durable margins support cash returns, reinvestment in technology, and resilience to cyclical volume swings, underpinning long-term earnings power.
Negative Factors
Rate‑per‑Contract Compression
Structural shifts toward micro contracts, higher member activity and volume tiering reduce realized fee per contract. Sustained RPC compression would force larger volumes to sustain revenue, pressuring margins if pricing or mix cannot be restored.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability & Margins
CME’s exceptionally high and stable gross and net margins reflect a scalable, low-variable-cost exchange model. Durable margins support cash returns, reinvestment in technology, and resilience to cyclical volume swings, underpinning long-term earnings power.
Read all positive factors
CME Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Contract Volume
Measures the total number of contracts traded, indicating market activity levels and the company's ability to attract traders.
Measures the total number of contracts traded, indicating market activity levels and the company's ability to attract traders.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCME Group (CME) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$85.73B
Dividend Yield3.92%
Average Volume (3M)3.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.1
Beta (1Y)0.12
Revenue Growth7.54%
EPS Growth18.50%
CountryUS
Employees3,760
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.80
Shares Outstanding362,356,200
10 Day Avg. Volume4,074,835
30 Day Avg. Volume3,477,786
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.59
Price to Book (P/B)3.42
Price to Sales (P/S)15.06
P/FCF Ratio23.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue13.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit15.86
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$298.27Price Target Upside3.69% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)12.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.03B
CME Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CME Group Inc., through its various subsidiaries, manages international marketplaces for the exchange of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. Its extensive array of product offerings includes futures and options linked to a broad sp...
How the Company Makes Money
CME Group primarily makes money by charging fees and selling services tied to derivatives trading and post-trade processing.
1) Transaction and clearing fees (core revenue driver)
- Trading fees: CME charges fees when market participants execute ...
CME Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strongly positive operational and financial performance with numerous record metrics (highest ADV, record revenue, margins, adjusted net income and EPS), broad-based global adoption across asset classes, and tangible strategic progress (cross-margin approval, cloud testing, product innovations, prediction markets and tokenization pilots). Headwinds were identified — chiefly rate per contract compression due to mix and tiering, higher operating expenses related to technology and facilities, regulatory uncertainty around tokenization/stablecoin and competition from non-U.S. perpetual platforms — but management characterized these as manageable and emphasized continued investment and disciplined capital allocation. Overall, the highlights substantially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Volume
Average daily volume (ADV) of 36.2 million contracts in Q1 — the highest quarterly ADV in CME Group history — up 22% year-over-year and ~6 million contracts/day higher than any prior quarter.
Negative Updates
Compression of Rate per Contract (RPC)
Weighted average RPC declined, particularly in energy, driven by volume tiering at record volumes, a mix shift toward lower‑priced crude versus natural gas, a surge in micro contracts (micro energy ADV of ~315K/day vs ~80K/day last year at ~$0.52/contract) and increased member trading — creating downward pressure on realized RPC.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Volume
Average daily volume (ADV) of 36.2 million contracts in Q1 — the highest quarterly ADV in CME Group history — up 22% year-over-year and ~6 million contracts/day higher than any prior quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to continued strong growth and product rollouts for 2026, reiterating full‑year adjusted expense guidance of $1.695 billion and confidence in sustaining the momentum behind Q1 record results (Q1 ADV 36.2M contracts, +22% YoY; international ADV 11.4M, +30%; commodity volume +38%, financials +18%; open interest +11% YoY and U.S. Treasury OI at an all‑time 36.3M). Near‑term operational milestones include FICC cross‑margining for end‑user clients launching April 30 (expected client savings up to ~80% similar to the House program, which has produced max savings of ~$1.5B and average daily savings just over $1B), 24/7 crypto trading going live May 29, the Dallas testing environment opening this summer, tokenized cash testing and go‑live targets with Google and partner banks by year‑end, pursuit of a stablecoin license, and migration of two agricultural products to the cloud by year‑end. Financially, management expects continued revenue and margin strength off the Q1 base ($1.9B revenue, +14% YoY; clearing & transaction fees +15%; market data $224M, +15%; adjusted operating income $1.4B and a 72.8% margin; adjusted net income $1.2B and EPS $3.36, +20% YoY) while remaining opportunistic on share repurchases and M&A (Q1 returned $3.2B to shareholders, including $2.7B dividends and $536M repurchases; OSTTRA proceeds of $1.55B with ~$758M remaining).CME Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
85
Very Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.76B | 6.52B | 6.13B | 5.58B | 5.02B | 4.69B |
| Gross Profit | 5.84B | 5.61B | 5.28B | 4.75B | 4.27B | 3.85B |
| EBITDA | 5.99B | 5.72B | 5.04B | 4.67B | 4.02B | 3.93B |
| Net Income | 4.24B | 4.04B | 3.53B | 3.23B | 2.69B | 2.64B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 201.99B | 198.55B | 137.45B | 129.71B | 174.18B | 196.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.52B | 4.55B | 3.01B | 3.02B | 2.82B | 2.95B |
| Total Debt | 3.42B | 3.76B | 3.43B | 3.43B | 3.44B | 3.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 175.38B | 169.82B | 110.96B | 102.97B | 147.30B | 169.38B |
| Stockholders Equity | 26.62B | 28.73B | 26.49B | 26.74B | 26.88B | 27.40B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.33B | 4.19B | 3.60B | 3.38B | 2.97B | 2.28B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.42B | 4.28B | 3.69B | 3.45B | 3.06B | 2.40B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.49B | 1.50B | -82.60M | 20.90M | -489.80M | 58.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 39.41B | 56.51B | 5.08B | -48.34B | -25.38B | 69.91B |
CME Group Technical Analysis
Negative
287.65
Price Trends
268.05
Negative
284.61
Negative
274.60
Negative
Market Momentum
-12.57
Positive
40.43
Neutral
32.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CME, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 287.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 245.59, above the 50-day MA of 268.05, and above the 200-day MA of 274.60, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -12.57 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CME.
CME Group Risk Analysis
CME Group disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CME Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CME Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $24.26B | 25.26 | 13.64% | 0.45% | 18.26% | 66.10% | |
78 Outperform | $85.73B | 20.05 | 15.25% | 3.92% | 7.54% | 18.50% | |
77 Outperform | $75.71B | 19.36 | 13.57% | 1.19% | 14.25% | 42.14% | |
71 Outperform | $26.06B | 21.21 | 24.63% | 1.06% | 10.61% | 53.46% | |
71 Outperform | $46.51B | 24.37 | 15.91% | 1.07% | 5.79% | 50.79% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
61 Neutral | $43.01B | 53.99 | 5.68% | ― | -4.24% | -43.98% |
* Financial Sector Average
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CME Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
CME Group Announces CEO Succession and Leadership Transition
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
CME Group announced on June 17, 2026 that longtime Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy will step down as chief executive and become Executive Chairman on the later of March 1, 2027 or the filing date of its 2026 Form 10-K, while President and CFO Lynne F...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
CME Group Shareholders Maintain Class B Governance Structure
Neutral
Jun 10, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, reconvened on June 9 following an adjournment on May 14 due to lack of quorum among certain Class B shareholders, CME Group secured overall quorum for most share classes but again fell short for Class B-...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
CME Group Adjourns Class B Proposals After Quorum Shortfall
Neutral
May 19, 2026
CME Group Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 14, 2026, with 87.78% of its combined Class A and Class B common stock represented, but none of the four Class B series achieved the required 33.3% quorum. Due to low participation...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
CME Group Amends Multi-Currency Secured Credit Facility
Positive
Apr 27, 2026
Effective April 22, 2026, Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. amended its existing 364-day multi-currency revolving secured credit facility with a syndicate of banks led by Bank of America and Citibank, maintaining a $7 billion capacity that can be i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.