CME Group (CME) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $95.30B
• Dividend Yield: 3.98%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.81M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.09
• Revenue Growth: 11.15%
• EPS Growth: 13.98%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,760
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges
• EPS (TTM): 2.96
• Shares Outstanding: 360,377,040
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,756,971
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,811,171
• PEG Ratio: 2.56
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 13.61
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 15.67
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.11
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.88
• 1Y Price Target: $286.33
• Price Target Upside: 5.94% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $305.00 ▲(12.85% Upside)

CME Group's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call results, which highlight record-breaking achievements and strategic growth. While technical analysis presents a mixed picture, the company's reasonable valuation and attractive dividend yield provide a balanced investment opportunity. The absence of significant corporate events further solidifies the focus on core financial and operational strengths.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The consistent revenue growth reflects CME Group's strong market position and ability to capitalize on increased trading volumes across asset classes.

International Expansion

Strong international growth, particularly in EMEA and APAC, enhances CME Group's global footprint and diversifies its revenue base, reducing reliance on domestic markets.

Retail Trader Growth

The surge in retail trader participation indicates a broadening customer base, which can lead to sustained trading volume growth and increased transaction fee revenue.

Negative Factors

Collateral Volatility

Increased volatility in collateral balances can lead to unpredictability in cash flow and risk management challenges, potentially impacting financial stability.

Challenges in Physical Commodities

Market dislocations due to geopolitical tensions can create basis differentials, complicating risk management and potentially affecting trading volumes in physical commodities.

Leadership Stock Sale

Significant stock sales by leadership may signal concerns about future company performance, potentially affecting investor confidence and market perception.

CME Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CME Group Inc. is a global leader in derivatives and futures exchanges, headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. The company operates four major exchanges: the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the Chicago Board of Trade, the New York Mercantile Exchange, and the Commodity Exchange. CME Group provides a diverse range of products across various asset classes, including agricultural commodities, energy, equity indexes, interest rates, foreign exchange, and metals. Through its electronic trading platform and clearing services, CME Group facilitates price discovery and risk management for market participants worldwide.

How the Company Makes Money

CME Group primarily generates revenue through transaction fees, which are charged to market participants for executing trades on its exchanges. The company earns income from various sources, including exchange fees, clearing fees, and market data services. Key revenue streams include trading volume across different asset classes, with higher volumes leading to increased transaction fees. Additionally, CME Group provides clearing services that offer risk management and settlement solutions, further contributing to its revenue. The company also benefits from partnerships and collaborations with financial institutions, proprietary trading firms, and other market participants, which help drive trading activity and enhance its service offerings. Overall, CME Group's business model is heavily reliant on the volume of trading activities and the associated fees collected from its users.

CME Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CME Group demonstrates strong profitability with high margins and steady revenue growth. The balance sheet is solid with low debt and strong return on equity. Cash flow is positive with room for improvement in efficiency.

Income Statement

CME Group demonstrates strong profitability with a high gross profit margin of 86.53% and a net profit margin of 58.28% in the TTM period. Revenue growth is steady at 2.54% TTM, indicating consistent performance. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting efficient operations. Overall, the income statement shows a healthy financial position with consistent growth and strong profitability metrics.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is solid with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.12, indicating prudent financial leverage. Return on equity is strong at 13.72%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a stable financial structure. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability and effective management of liabilities.

Cash Flow

CME Group's cash flow statement shows positive trends with a 7.36% growth in free cash flow TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is modest, suggesting room for improvement in cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, indicating efficient conversion of income to cash. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects solid cash management with potential for further optimization.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.44B	6.13B	5.58B	5.02B	4.69B	4.88B
Gross Profit	5.58B	5.28B	4.75B	4.27B	3.85B	4.03B
EBITDA	5.35B	5.04B	4.67B	4.02B	3.93B	3.35B
Net Income	3.76B	3.53B	3.23B	2.69B	2.64B	2.11B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	179.91B	137.45B	129.71B	174.18B	196.78B	124.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.10B	3.01B	3.02B	2.82B	2.95B	1.73B
Total Debt	3.42B	3.43B	3.88B	3.44B	3.45B	3.44B
Total Liabilities	152.17B	110.96B	102.97B	147.44B	169.56B	98.31B
Stockholders Equity	27.74B	26.49B	26.74B	26.74B	27.22B	26.32B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.11B	3.60B	3.38B	2.97B	2.28B	2.52B
Operating Cash Flow	4.20B	3.69B	3.45B	3.06B	2.40B	2.72B
Investing Cash Flow	-88.80M	-82.60M	20.90M	-489.80M	58.40M	-175.50M
Financing Cash Flow	52.57B	5.08B	-48.34B	-25.38B	69.91B	-2.46B

CME Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 270.28
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CME, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 270.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 263.07, above the 50-day MA of 270.09, and above the 200-day MA of 258.99, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -1.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.22 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CME.

CME Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ICE	81 Outperform	96.01B	32.11	10.56%	1.13%	11.44%	29.10%
CBOE	77 Outperform	25.47B	28.60	19.26%	1.07%	18.99%	17.97%
CME	77 Outperform	$95.30B	25.59	13.62%	3.98%	11.15%	13.98%
TW	73 Outperform	26.24B	42.59	9.16%	0.41%	27.97%	28.39%
NDAQ	70 Outperform	50.21B	33.32	12.77%	1.17%	23.55%	49.91%
COIN	68 Neutral	80.32B	30.24	23.66%	―	57.56%	84.56%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

CME Group Corporate Events

CME Group Wins Class Action Lawsuit Verdict

On July 25, 2025, a jury ruled in favor of CME Group Inc. and the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. in a class action lawsuit. The plaintiffs, Class B shareholders and members, alleged breaches of contract and good faith, but the verdict supported the defendants, potentially reinforcing their legal standing and shareholder relations.