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CME Group
(NASDAQ:CME)
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Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$292.00
▲(14.37% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/27/26
CME scores well primarily on high-quality financial performance (exceptional margins, strong TTM growth, low leverage) and a positive operating update from the earnings call. The main constraint on the score is mixed technical positioning versus the 50/100/200-day averages, with valuation supported by a solid dividend yield and moderate P/E.
Positive Factors
High Profitability
Sustained ~63% net margins reflect durable platform economics: low incremental costs to serve additional contracts, high fixed-cost leverage, and pricing power across clearing, trading and data. This supports strong cash generation, reinvestment capacity and ongoing shareholder returns over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Regulatory Uncertainty
Regulatory holds and CFTC scrutiny can delay or block product rollouts, compress near-term revenue from new offerings, and force product redesigns. Persistent regulatory uncertainty raises execution risk, increases compliance costs, and can slow monetization of innovation over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Profitability
Sustained ~63% net margins reflect durable platform economics: low incremental costs to serve additional contracts, high fixed-cost leverage, and pricing power across clearing, trading and data. This supports strong cash generation, reinvestment capacity and ongoing shareholder returns over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
CME Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business unit generates, highlighting which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Shows how much revenue each business unit generates, highlighting which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCME Group (CME) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$96.29B
Dividend Yield4.2%
Average Volume (3M)3.57M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.6
Beta (1Y)0.13
Revenue Growth5.10%
EPS Growth14.78%
CountryUS
Employees3,875
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.85
Shares Outstanding359,576,100
10 Day Avg. Volume2,751,237
30 Day Avg. Volume3,570,892
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.59
Price to Book (P/B)3.42
Price to Sales (P/S)15.06
P/FCF Ratio23.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$278.27Price Target Upside8.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)12.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.01B
CME Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CME Group Inc., through its various subsidiaries, manages international marketplaces for the exchange of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. Its extensive array of product offerings includes futures and options linked to a broad sp...
How the Company Makes Money
CME Group primarily makes money by charging fees and selling services tied to derivatives trading and post-trade processing.
1) Transaction and clearing fees (core revenue driver)
- Trading fees: CME charges fees when market participants execute ...
CME Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial performance: record Q2 revenue for the quarter, robust ADV and open interest growth, healthy margins, sizeable shareholder returns, and a clear pipeline of product innovation (24/7 trading, Single Stock futures, Compute Futures, Treasury Link). The principal negatives were regulatory uncertainty (CFTC stay and pending litigation), strategic caution and market-risk concerns around perpetual futures, and early-stage monetization for prediction markets. On balance, the positive execution, growth trends and product roadmap materially outweigh the regulatory and product-structure headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Volume and Open Interest Growth
Average daily volume of 29.8M contracts in Q2 (second-highest Q2 ever, within 1% of prior-year record). Open interest up 8% year-over-year and up 16% since the start of the year. First-half volume 10% ahead of prior year; July-to-date volume tracking ~18% ahead of last year.
Negative Updates
Regulatory Stay on 24/7 Crude Launch and CFTC Uncertainty
CFTC stayed the self-certified 24/7 small crude oil contract (40.2 filing) the day before launch while allowing 24/7 gold, creating regulatory uncertainty and timing risk for product rollouts. Litigation timeline: agency has 60 days to respond (expected end of August), with additional potential delays.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Volume and Open Interest Growth
Average daily volume of 29.8M contracts in Q2 (second-highest Q2 ever, within 1% of prior-year record). Open interest up 8% year-over-year and up 16% since the start of the year. First-half volume 10% ahead of prior year; July-to-date volume tracking ~18% ahead of last year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that CME Group is tracking strong momentum and rolling out multiple product launches, citing Q2 average daily volume of 29.8 million contracts (second‑highest Q2, within 1% of last year), open interest +8% YoY and +16% YTD, and record capital efficiencies saving customers an average of >$95 billion in margin per day; financials included revenue >$1.7 billion (+1% YoY, record Q2), average rate/contract $0.678 (+$0.026 QoQ), market data revenue $238 million (+20%, 33 consecutive quarters YoY growth), adjusted expenses $521 million ($412M ex‑license), adjusted operating income $1.2 billion (69.5% adjusted operating margin), adjusted net income $1.1 billion and adjusted diluted EPS $2.99 (+1% YoY), and $1.2 billion returned to shareholders ($468M dividends, $695M buybacks). For the first half, volume was +10% YoY, open interest +8%, revenue +8% and adjusted diluted EPS +10%; July‑to‑date volumes are tracking +18% YoY. Crypto and retail metrics showed the crypto suite +32% YoY, crypto futures & options +44% H1 vs H1 2025 (June +76% YoY), ~$4.5–$6.5B/day trading in CME crypto vs ~$270M at a new perp in July, crypto open interest ~$9–$10B vs $10M in that perp, and >$1.5B traded over the first eight weekends of 24/7 crypto; other highlights: equity complex Q2 ADV 8.6M (+13% YoY), June 10.1M (+54% YoY), July ~7.8M (+40–50% YoY), copper volumes +4% YTD with ~700k short tons in COMEX warehouses, prediction markets 525M event contracts since launch (48M market events, 140k accounts, ADV >4M/day), and announced product timing—24/7 gold this weekend, Single Stock futures next week, Treasury Link in Q4, and Compute Futures later this year.CME Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.77B | 6.52B | 6.13B | 5.58B | 5.02B | 4.69B |
| Gross Profit | 5.55B | 5.61B | 5.28B | 4.75B | 4.27B | 3.85B |
| EBITDA | 5.37B | 5.72B | 5.04B | 4.67B | 4.02B | 3.93B |
| Net Income | 4.27B | 4.04B | 3.53B | 3.23B | 2.69B | 2.64B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 194.68B | 198.55B | 137.45B | 129.71B | 174.18B | 196.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.28B | 4.55B | 3.01B | 3.02B | 2.82B | 2.95B |
| Total Debt | 3.42B | 3.76B | 3.43B | 3.43B | 3.44B | 3.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 168.22B | 169.82B | 110.96B | 102.97B | 147.30B | 169.38B |
| Stockholders Equity | 26.52B | 28.73B | 26.49B | 26.74B | 26.88B | 27.40B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.21B | 4.19B | 3.60B | 3.38B | 2.97B | 2.28B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.31B | 4.28B | 3.69B | 3.45B | 3.06B | 2.40B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.48B | 1.50B | -82.60M | 20.90M | -489.80M | 58.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 10.32B | 56.51B | 5.08B | -48.34B | -25.38B | 69.91B |
CME Group Risk Analysis
CME Group disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CME Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CME Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $32.47B | 24.10 | 25.75% | 1.01% | 11.68% | 50.39% | |
79 Outperform | $96.29B | 22.60 | 15.53% | 4.41% | 5.10% | 14.78% | |
78 Outperform | $23.52B | 23.93 | 13.78% | 0.52% | 14.04% | 60.95% | |
77 Outperform | $52.65B | 27.14 | 16.31% | 1.22% | 7.35% | 31.93% | |
76 Outperform | $85.60B | 21.45 | 13.81% | 1.37% | 12.60% | 35.84% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
59 Neutral | $38.53B | -39.64 | -6.89% | ― | -43.42% | -132.70% |
* Financial Sector Average
CME
CME Group
262.63
-11.32
-4.13%
CBOE
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288.42
42.21
17.14%
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange
149.20
-35.83
-19.37%
NDAQ
Nasdaq
93.62
-1.52
-1.59%
TW
Tradeweb Markets
100.48
-39.41
-28.17%
COIN
Coinbase Global
150.73
-147.26
-49.42%
CME Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
CME Group Announces CEO Succession and Leadership Transition
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
CME Group announced on June 17, 2026 that longtime Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy will step down as chief executive and become Executive Chairman on the later of March 1, 2027 or the filing date of its 2026 Form 10-K, while President and CFO Lynne F...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
CME Group Shareholders Maintain Class B Governance Structure
Neutral
Jun 10, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, reconvened on June 9 following an adjournment on May 14 due to lack of quorum among certain Class B shareholders, CME Group secured overall quorum for most share classes but again fell short for Class B-...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
CME Group Adjourns Class B Proposals After Quorum Shortfall
Neutral
May 19, 2026
CME Group Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 14, 2026, with 87.78% of its combined Class A and Class B common stock represented, but none of the four Class B series achieved the required 33.3% quorum. Due to low participation...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.