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CME Group (CME)
NASDAQ:CME
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CME Group (CME) AI Stock Analysis

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CME

CME Group

(NASDAQ:CME)

Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$321.00
â–²(14.83%Upside)
CME Group's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call outcomes, reflecting robust operational efficiency and growth potential. Technical analysis indicates stable market conditions, while valuation metrics are reasonable. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, the company's strategic growth initiatives and international expansion provide a positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Defensive Revenue Streams
Shares are more defensive given counter-cyclical, defensive revenue streams and a strong balance sheet.
Interest Rates and Debates
Supportive tailwinds bolster the rates volumes outlook due to uncertainty around interest rates and higher debt issuances.
Retail Brokerage Growth
Strong momentum in the retail brokerage channel with retail participation growing significantly.
Negative Factors
Growth Limitations
CME lacks the secular growth characteristics of other areas of the exchange universe, limiting its growth potential.
Market Share Threats
CME faces market share threats from competitors like CBOE in equities, BGC in rates, and ICE in energy.
Volume Decline Expectation
Futures volume is expected to continue declining, showing a downward normalization in the market.

CME Group (CME) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

CME Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCME Group Inc. is a leading global derivatives marketplace headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. The company operates exchanges that offer a broad range of products across major asset classes, including futures and options contracts based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural commodities, and metals. CME Group's core services include providing a trusted and regulated platform for price discovery, risk management, and access to capital through its electronic trading platforms and clearing services.
How the Company Makes MoneyCME Group generates revenue primarily through transaction fees collected from trading and clearing activities on its exchanges. These fees are charged per contract traded and vary depending on the type of contract and the participant involved. In addition to transaction fees, CME Group earns revenue from market data and information services, which provide market participants with real-time and historical data. The company also derives income from its clearing and settlement services, which manage risk and ensure the integrity of trades. Significant partnerships, such as those with global financial institutions and other exchanges, enhance CME Group's market reach and liquidity, further contributing to its revenue streams.

CME Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Total Contract Volume
Total Contract Volume
Measures the total number of contracts traded, indicating market activity levels and the company's ability to attract traders.
Chart InsightsCME Group's total contract volume has shown a strong upward trend, culminating in record levels by early 2025. This growth is supported by a 13% increase in average daily volume and significant gains in both commodity and financial product volumes. The earnings call highlights robust international expansion and innovative product developments, which are driving this momentum. Despite increased margin requirements and challenges in specific market segments like agricultural futures, CME's strategic focus on diversification and global reach is paying off, as evidenced by record-breaking financial performance and strong open interest growth.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

CME Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 1.11%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call was dominated by highlights including record-breaking volumes, significant international and retail growth, and strong financial performance. However, uncertainties in the macro environment and potential legal risks were noted as challenges. Overall, the positive achievements significantly outweigh the lowlights.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Volume
For the first time in CME Group's history, average daily volume exceeded 30 million contracts in Q2 2025, a 16% increase compared to the same period last year.
International Business Growth
CME Group achieved its highest-ever quarterly volume from its international business, with 9.2 million contracts per day, up 18% from the prior year.
Retail Trader Expansion
Over 90,000 new retail traders participated in CME markets for the first time, a 56% increase versus the same period last year.
Revenue and Earnings Records
CME Group generated revenue of $1.7 billion, up 10% year-over-year, with record quarterly clearing and transaction fees of $1.4 billion and record adjusted net income of $1.1 billion, up 16% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Uncertain Macro Environment
Challenges include global debt levels, geopolitical unrest, and macroeconomic uncertainties, which could impact future volumes and risk management demand.
Potential Legal Risks
Ongoing litigation with former floor traders could have financial implications, though no accruals have been made to date.
Company Guidance
During the CME Group's second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported a record-breaking average daily volume exceeding 30 million contracts, marking a 16% increase from the previous year. Notably, they achieved all-time quarterly volume records in interest rates, agricultural commodities, and metals, with financial products volume growing by 17% and commodity sector volume by 15%. The international business also reached new heights, with an average daily volume of 9.2 million contracts, a rise of 18% year-over-year. Financially, CME Group generated $1.7 billion in revenue, up by 10% compared to the second quarter of 2024, and achieved a record adjusted operating income of $1.2 billion, with an operating margin of 71%. The firm's adjusted net income and diluted earnings per share were also at all-time highs, reaching $1.1 billion and $2.96, respectively, both up 16% from the previous year. Looking ahead, CME Group revised its 2025 total adjusted operating expenses guidance, excluding license fees, to approximately $1.635 billion, which is $15 million below prior guidance and reflects a 3% increase from the previous year.

CME Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
CME Group exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue and profit growth, strong profitability margins, and effective cash flow management. The balance sheet is robust, with low leverage, though the low Equity Ratio suggests some reliance on liabilities. Overall, CME's financials indicate a well-managed business with robust operational efficiency and growth potential.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
CME Group demonstrates robust financial performance with consistent revenue growth and strong profitability margins. The TTM Gross Profit Margin is high at approximately 86.5%, and the Net Profit Margin is impressive at 57.0%. Revenue growth from the previous year is notable at 12.2%, indicating a positive trajectory. Additionally, both EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 64.9% and 76.3% respectively, reflecting efficient operational management.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's balance sheet is solid with a moderate Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.13, showcasing low leverage. The Equity Ratio stands at 17.1%, indicating a reasonable proportion of equity in the asset base. Return on Equity (ROE) is strong at 13.2%, demonstrating effective use of equity to generate profits. The company's financial position is stable, but the relatively low Equity Ratio highlights some reliance on liabilities.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
CME Group's cash flow position is healthy, with a Free Cash Flow Growth Rate of 6.8% over the previous year. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.09, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. Moreover, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.07, reflecting effective cash management. The company maintains strong liquidity and demonstrates efficient cash flow management.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.13B5.58B5.02B4.69B4.88B
Gross Profit5.28B4.75B4.27B3.85B4.03B
EBITDA4.27B3.79B3.37B3.03B3.10B
Net Income3.53B3.23B2.69B2.64B2.11B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets137.45B129.71B174.18B196.78B124.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.01B3.02B2.82B2.95B1.73B
Total Debt3.43B3.88B3.95B4.03B4.07B
Total Liabilities110.96B102.97B147.44B169.56B98.31B
Stockholders Equity26.49B26.74B26.88B27.40B26.32B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow3.60B3.38B2.97B2.28B2.52B
Operating Cash Flow3.69B3.45B3.06B2.40B2.72B
Investing Cash Flow-82.60M20.90M-489.80M58.40M-175.50M
Financing Cash Flow5.08B-48.34B-25.38B69.91B-2.46B

CME Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price279.55
Price Trends
50DMA
275.78
Positive
100DMA
269.67
Positive
200DMA
248.94
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.75
Negative
RSI
58.49
Neutral
STOCH
64.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CME, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 279.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 276.37, above the 50-day MA of 275.78, and above the 200-day MA of 248.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CME.

CME Group Risk Analysis

CME Group disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CME Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

CME Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$162.81B41.2711.68%0.70%12.98%42.72%
80
Outperform
$99.88B26.7613.62%3.79%11.15%13.98%
80
Outperform
$25.75B32.2418.93%1.02%15.76%1.97%
79
Outperform
$105.31B37.4810.27%1.01%13.25%10.82%
79
Outperform
$92.30B43.1655.18%0.70%11.47%16.14%
78
Outperform
$50.68B40.0313.28%1.04%23.55%49.91%
68
Neutral
$17.10B11.199.70%3.58%11.11%-4.55%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CME
CME Group
279.55
87.66
45.68%
CBOE
Cboe Global Markets
246.51
62.23
33.77%
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange
184.44
35.12
23.52%
SPGI
S&P Global
534.95
48.66
10.01%
MCO
Moody's
512.95
67.51
15.16%
NDAQ
Nasdaq
94.84
28.73
43.46%

CME Group Corporate Events

Legal Proceedings
CME Group Wins Class Action Lawsuit Verdict
Positive
Jul 25, 2025

On July 25, 2025, a jury ruled in favor of CME Group Inc. and the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. in a class action lawsuit. The plaintiffs, Class B shareholders and members, alleged breaches of contract and good faith, but the verdict supported the defendants, potentially reinforcing their legal standing and shareholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CME) stock is a Sell with a $191.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CME Group stock, see the CME Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
CME Group Concludes 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
May 9, 2025

CME Group Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 8, 2025, where key proposals were voted on by shareholders. The election of fourteen Equity Directors was completed, with all nominees elected to serve until 2026. Additionally, the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent public accounting firm for 2025 was ratified, and the compensation of the company’s named executive officers was approved. However, no quorum was achieved for the election of Class B Directors, resulting in several directors continuing as ‘holdovers’ until the next election in 2026.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 26, 2025