CME Group (CME) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $96.38B
• Dividend Yield: 3.96%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.01M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.11
• Revenue Growth: 11.15%
• EPS Growth: 13.98%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,760
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 77
• Industry: Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges
• EPS (TTM): 2.96
• Shares Outstanding: 360,377,040
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,961,489
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,013,596
• PEG Ratio: 2.56
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 13.61
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.05
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 15.67
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.11
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.88
• 1Y Price Target: $285.33
• Price Target Upside: 8.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $306.00 ▲(16.82% Upside)

CME Group's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the most significant factors driving the score. While technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, the company's robust profitability and attractive dividend yield provide a solid foundation for long-term growth. The favorable legal outcome further supports its market position.

Positive Factors

Interest Rates

Supportive tailwinds bolster the rates volumes outlook due to uncertainty around interest rates and higher debt issuances.

Retail Participation

Strong momentum in the retail brokerage channel with retail participation growing significantly.

Risk Management

CME's suite of risk management tools positions the firm well in a volatile global macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop, as reflected in strong quarter-to-date trading volumes.

Negative Factors

Growth Limitations

CME lacks the secular growth characteristics of other areas of the exchange universe, limiting its growth potential.

Market Share Threats

CME faces market share threats from competitors like CBOE in equities, BGC in rates, and ICE in energy.

Volume Decline

Futures volume is expected to continue declining, showing a downward normalization in the market.

CME Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy, and metals, as well as fixed income products. The company also provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges; and trade processing and risk mitigation services. In addition, the company offers a range of market data services, including real-time and historical data services. It serves professional traders, financial institutions, institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks. The company was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. and changed its name to CME Group Inc. in July 2007. CME Group Inc. was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

CME Group primarily generates revenue through transaction fees, which are charged to market participants for executing trades on its exchanges. The company earns income from various sources, including exchange fees, clearing fees, and market data services. Key revenue streams include trading volume across different asset classes, with higher volumes leading to increased transaction fees. Additionally, CME Group provides clearing services that offer risk management and settlement solutions, further contributing to its revenue. The company also benefits from partnerships and collaborations with financial institutions, proprietary trading firms, and other market participants, which help drive trading activity and enhance its service offerings. Overall, CME Group's business model is heavily reliant on the volume of trading activities and the associated fees collected from its users.

CME Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CME Group exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue and profit growth, strong profitability margins, and effective cash flow management. The balance sheet is robust, with low leverage, though the low Equity Ratio suggests some reliance on liabilities. Overall, CME's financials indicate a well-managed business with robust operational efficiency and growth potential.

Income Statement

CME Group demonstrates robust financial performance with consistent revenue growth and strong profitability margins. The TTM Gross Profit Margin is high at approximately 86.5%, and the Net Profit Margin is impressive at 57.0%. Revenue growth from the previous year is notable at 12.2%, indicating a positive trajectory. Additionally, both EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 64.9% and 76.3% respectively, reflecting efficient operational management.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is solid with a moderate Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.13, showcasing low leverage. The Equity Ratio stands at 17.1%, indicating a reasonable proportion of equity in the asset base. Return on Equity (ROE) is strong at 13.2%, demonstrating effective use of equity to generate profits. The company's financial position is stable, but the relatively low Equity Ratio highlights some reliance on liabilities.

Cash Flow

CME Group's cash flow position is healthy, with a Free Cash Flow Growth Rate of 6.8% over the previous year. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.09, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. Moreover, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.07, reflecting effective cash management. The company maintains strong liquidity and demonstrates efficient cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.44B	6.13B	5.58B	5.02B	4.69B	4.88B
Gross Profit	5.58B	5.28B	4.75B	4.27B	3.85B	4.03B
EBITDA	5.35B	5.04B	4.67B	4.02B	3.93B	3.35B
Net Income	3.76B	3.53B	3.23B	2.69B	2.64B	2.11B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	179.91B	137.45B	129.71B	174.18B	196.78B	124.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.10B	3.01B	3.02B	2.82B	2.95B	1.73B
Total Debt	3.42B	3.43B	3.88B	3.44B	3.45B	3.44B
Total Liabilities	152.17B	110.96B	102.97B	147.44B	169.56B	98.31B
Stockholders Equity	27.74B	26.49B	26.74B	26.74B	27.22B	26.32B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.11B	3.60B	3.38B	2.97B	2.28B	2.52B
Operating Cash Flow	4.20B	3.69B	3.45B	3.06B	2.40B	2.72B
Investing Cash Flow	-88.80M	-82.60M	20.90M	-489.80M	58.40M	-175.50M
Financing Cash Flow	52.57B	5.08B	-48.34B	-25.38B	69.91B	-2.46B

CME Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 261.94
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CME, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 261.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 272.76, below the 50-day MA of 275.34, and above the 200-day MA of 257.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.65 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CME.

CME Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ICE	81 Outperform	$100.23B	33.61	10.89%	1.07%	11.44%	29.10%
NDAQ	78 Outperform	$53.70B	35.96	13.28%	1.05%	23.55%	49.91%
CME	77 Outperform	$96.38B	26.07	13.62%	3.96%	11.15%	13.98%
TW	73 Outperform	$29.55B	48.17	9.51%	0.37%	27.97%	28.39%
CBOE	70 Outperform	$24.25B	27.18	20.64%	1.11%	18.99%	17.97%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.05B	11.73	10.24%	3.73%	9.66%	1.70%
COIN	68 Neutral	$78.83B	29.68	27.96%	―	57.56%	84.56%

CME Group Corporate Events

CME Group Wins Class Action Lawsuit Verdict

On July 25, 2025, a jury ruled in favor of CME Group Inc. and the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. in a class action lawsuit. The plaintiffs, Class B shareholders and members, alleged breaches of contract and good faith, but the verdict supported the defendants, potentially reinforcing their legal standing and shareholder relations.