CME Group (CME) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $99.00B
• Dividend Yield: 3.86%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.02M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.11
• Revenue Growth: 11.15%
• EPS Growth: 13.98%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,760
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges
• EPS (TTM): 2.96
• Shares Outstanding: 360,377,040
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,982,015
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,018,493
• PEG Ratio: 2.56
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 13.61
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 15.67
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.11
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.88
• 1Y Price Target: $287.46
• Price Target Upside: 4.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $313.00 ▲(13.94% Upside)

CME Group's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the most significant factors driving the score. The company's robust profitability, record-breaking volumes, and strategic growth in international and retail segments underscore its resilience and market leadership. While the technical analysis and valuation present some concerns, the overall outlook remains positive.

Positive Factors

Resilience in Uncertain Times

CME is seen as best placed in a period of prolonged uncertainty, with 80% of revenues derived from clearing and transaction fees, and a strong moat around futures and options complex.

Retail Brokerage Growth

Strong momentum in the retail brokerage channel with retail participation growing significantly.

Volumes and Revenue Growth

Analyst sees more levers to drive volumes and revenue growth better than expectations.

Negative Factors

Competitive Risks

CME faces market share threats from competitors like CBOE in equities, BGC in rates, and ICE in energy.

Declining Futures Volume

Futures volume is expected to continue declining, showing a downward normalization in the market.

Growth Potential Limitations

CME lacks the secular growth characteristics of other areas of the exchange universe, limiting its growth potential.

CME Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CME Group Inc. is a global leader in derivatives and futures exchanges, headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. The company operates four major exchanges: the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the Chicago Board of Trade, the New York Mercantile Exchange, and the Commodity Exchange. CME Group provides a diverse range of products across various asset classes, including agricultural commodities, energy, equity indexes, interest rates, foreign exchange, and metals. Through its electronic trading platform and clearing services, CME Group facilitates price discovery and risk management for market participants worldwide.

How the Company Makes Money

CME Group primarily generates revenue through transaction fees, which are charged to market participants for executing trades on its exchanges. The company earns income from various sources, including exchange fees, clearing fees, and market data services. Key revenue streams include trading volume across different asset classes, with higher volumes leading to increased transaction fees. Additionally, CME Group provides clearing services that offer risk management and settlement solutions, further contributing to its revenue. The company also benefits from partnerships and collaborations with financial institutions, proprietary trading firms, and other market participants, which help drive trading activity and enhance its service offerings. Overall, CME Group's business model is heavily reliant on the volume of trading activities and the associated fees collected from its users.

CME Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CME Group exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue and profit growth, strong profitability margins, and effective cash flow management. The balance sheet is robust, with low leverage, though the low Equity Ratio suggests some reliance on liabilities. Overall, CME's financials indicate a well-managed business with robust operational efficiency and growth potential.

Income Statement

CME Group demonstrates robust financial performance with consistent revenue growth and strong profitability margins. The TTM Gross Profit Margin is high at approximately 86.5%, and the Net Profit Margin is impressive at 57.0%. Revenue growth from the previous year is notable at 12.2%, indicating a positive trajectory. Additionally, both EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 64.9% and 76.3% respectively, reflecting efficient operational management.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is solid with a moderate Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.13, showcasing low leverage. The Equity Ratio stands at 17.1%, indicating a reasonable proportion of equity in the asset base. Return on Equity (ROE) is strong at 13.2%, demonstrating effective use of equity to generate profits. The company's financial position is stable, but the relatively low Equity Ratio highlights some reliance on liabilities.

Cash Flow

CME Group's cash flow position is healthy, with a Free Cash Flow Growth Rate of 6.8% over the previous year. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.09, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. Moreover, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.07, reflecting effective cash management. The company maintains strong liquidity and demonstrates efficient cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.44B	6.13B	5.58B	5.02B	4.69B	4.88B
Gross Profit	5.58B	5.28B	4.75B	4.27B	3.85B	4.03B
EBITDA	5.35B	5.04B	4.67B	4.02B	3.93B	3.35B
Net Income	3.76B	3.53B	3.23B	2.69B	2.64B	2.11B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	179.91B	137.45B	129.71B	174.18B	196.78B	124.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.10B	3.01B	3.02B	2.82B	2.95B	1.73B
Total Debt	3.42B	3.43B	3.88B	3.44B	3.45B	3.44B
Total Liabilities	152.17B	110.96B	102.97B	147.44B	169.56B	98.31B
Stockholders Equity	27.74B	26.49B	26.74B	26.74B	27.22B	26.32B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.11B	3.60B	3.38B	2.97B	2.28B	2.52B
Operating Cash Flow	4.20B	3.69B	3.45B	3.06B	2.40B	2.72B
Investing Cash Flow	-88.80M	-82.60M	20.90M	-489.80M	58.40M	-175.50M
Financing Cash Flow	52.57B	5.08B	-48.34B	-25.38B	69.91B	-2.46B

CME Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 274.70
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CME, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 274.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 278.48, below the 50-day MA of 275.61, and above the 200-day MA of 253.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.39 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CME.

CME Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ICE	81 Outperform	$104.60B	35.08	10.89%	1.02%	11.44%	29.10%
CBOE	79 Outperform	$25.99B	29.13	20.64%	1.03%	18.99%	17.97%
MCO	79 Outperform	$93.52B	44.31	55.18%	0.70%	11.47%	16.14%
NDAQ	78 Outperform	$55.16B	36.94	13.28%	1.04%	23.55%	49.91%
CME	77 Outperform	$99.00B	26.59	13.62%	3.86%	11.15%	13.98%
SPGI	77 Outperform	$170.68B	42.97	11.76%	0.66%	10.72%	23.30%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$17.51B	11.65	10.43%	3.82%	9.93%	1.68%

CME Group Corporate Events

CME Group Wins Class Action Lawsuit Verdict

On July 25, 2025, a jury ruled in favor of CME Group Inc. and the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. in a class action lawsuit. The plaintiffs, Class B shareholders and members, alleged breaches of contract and good faith, but the verdict supported the defendants, potentially reinforcing their legal standing and shareholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CME) stock is a Sell with a $191.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CME Group stock, see the CME Stock Forecast page.