CME Group (CME)
NASDAQ:CME
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CME Group
(NASDAQ:CME)
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Rating:85Outperform
Price Target:
$372.00
▲(25.97% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
CME scores highly on financial performance driven by exceptional margins, strong cash generation, and low leverage. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation is the main constraint due to a higher P/E despite a solid dividend yield. The latest earnings call reinforces the outlook with record activity and continued growth, tempered by higher planned spending and regulatory execution risks.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, high free cash flow conversion provides durable internal funding for dividends, buybacks and strategic reinvestment. That cash engine underpins balance-sheet flexibility, funds product launches and securites-clearing rollout, and reduces reliance on external financing over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Regulatory & legal uncertainty
Legal ambiguity around event/prediction markets and differing state-level rules could constrain product rollout, limit monetization, or trigger compliance costs. This structural regulatory risk can delay scale and reduce expected revenue diversification over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, high free cash flow conversion provides durable internal funding for dividends, buybacks and strategic reinvestment. That cash engine underpins balance-sheet flexibility, funds product launches and securites-clearing rollout, and reduces reliance on external financing over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
CME Group (CME) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$105.90B
Dividend Yield3.92%
Average Volume (3M)2.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.3
Beta (1Y)0.07
Revenue Growth5.84%
EPS Growth8.51%
CountryUS
Employees3,760
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.77
Shares Outstanding358,622,340
10 Day Avg. Volume2,050,104
30 Day Avg. Volume2,202,956
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.58
Price to Book (P/B)3.42
Price to Sales (P/S)15.06
P/FCF Ratio23.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue16.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.75
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.40
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$304.80Price Target Upside3.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)12.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.07B
CME Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, agri...
How the Company Makes Money
CME Group generates revenue through several key streams, primarily focusing on transaction fees and market data services. The company charges fees for trades executed on its platforms, which are driven by trading volumes across its diverse product...
CME Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Contract Volume
Measures the total number of contracts traded, indicating market activity levels and the company's ability to attract traders.
Measures the total number of contracts traded, indicating market activity levels and the company's ability to attract traders.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCME Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strongly positive operational and financial picture — record volumes across multiple asset classes, double-digit growth in crypto activity, record market data revenue, continued revenue and adjusted earnings growth, and active capital returns. Management also outlined strategic investments (securities clearing, 24/7 crypto trading, event contracts) with clear near-term costs and guidance for higher operating spend. Key risks were primarily execution and regulatory: SEC approvals required for some cross-margining/treasury initiatives, legal uncertainty around certain prediction/sports contracts, cloud migration costs, and margin actions in volatile markets. On balance, the highlights (multiple record metrics, solid revenue/earnings growth, product expansion and capital returns) materially outweigh the contained lowlights and execution/regulatory risks.Positive Updates
Record Volume and Broad-Based Growth
Average daily volume (ADV) in 2025 increased 6% to 28.1 million contracts, marking the fifth consecutive year of record volume with all-time records in interest rate, energy, metals, agricultural, and crypto complexes. International ADV averaged 8.4 million contracts per day, up 8% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Regulatory and Legal Uncertainty Around Prediction Markets
Prediction/event markets and sports-related contracts face legal and regulatory ambiguity. Management emphasized reliance on CFTC oversight but acknowledged the potential for state-level disputes and indicated they will avoid protracted litigation if legal risk becomes material.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Volume and Broad-Based Growth
Average daily volume (ADV) in 2025 increased 6% to 28.1 million contracts, marking the fifth consecutive year of record volume with all-time records in interest rate, energy, metals, agricultural, and crypto complexes. International ADV averaged 8.4 million contracts per day, up 8% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026 management guided adjusted operating expenses (excluding license fees) of about $1.695 billion, capital expenditures near $85 million, and an adjusted effective tax rate of 23.5%–24.5%; they said the combination of the January market‑data rack‑rate change, April 1 transaction fee changes and incentive revisions would boost total revenue by roughly 1%–1.5% on similar 2025 activity. Management expects to reinvest behind 24/7 crypto trading, CME Securities Clearing and event contracts, will use remaining Austria proceeds ($1.3 billion of ~$4.6 billion cash) for share repurchases (repurchased $256 million in Q4 and $276 million YTD in 2026), and framed the guidance against 2025 results of $6.5 billion revenue (+6% YoY), $4.1 billion adjusted net income, 69.4% adjusted operating margin (up 110 bps), and 9% adjusted EPS growth.CME Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.52B | 6.13B | 5.58B | 5.02B | 4.69B |
| Gross Profit | 5.61B | 5.28B | 4.75B | 4.27B | 3.85B |
| EBITDA | 5.72B | 5.04B | 4.67B | 4.02B | 3.93B |
| Net Income | 4.04B | 3.53B | 3.23B | 2.69B | 2.64B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 198.55B | 137.45B | 129.71B | 174.18B | 196.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.55B | 3.01B | 3.02B | 2.82B | 2.95B |
| Total Debt | 3.76B | 3.43B | 3.43B | 3.44B | 3.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 169.82B | 110.96B | 102.97B | 147.30B | 169.38B |
| Stockholders Equity | 28.73B | 26.49B | 26.74B | 26.88B | 27.40B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.19B | 3.60B | 3.38B | 2.97B | 2.28B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.28B | 3.69B | 3.45B | 3.06B | 2.40B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.50B | -82.60M | 20.90M | -489.80M | 58.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 56.51B | 5.08B | -48.34B | -25.38B | 69.91B |
CME Group Technical Analysis
Negative
295.30
Price Trends
301.90
Negative
284.89
Positive
273.90
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.61
Positive
43.12
Neutral
31.87
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CME, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 295.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 303.56, below the 50-day MA of 301.90, and above the 200-day MA of 273.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CME.
CME Group Risk Analysis
CME Group disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CME Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CME Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $105.90B | 24.28 | 14.48% | 3.92% | 5.84% | 8.51% | |
80 Outperform | $30.98B | 23.89 | 22.99% | 1.06% | 16.74% | 26.74% | |
78 Outperform | $28.66B | 28.21 | 13.10% | 0.45% | 22.17% | 40.13% | |
72 Outperform | $90.97B | 28.00 | 11.60% | 1.19% | 8.96% | 30.16% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $47.27B | 26.70 | 15.03% | 1.07% | 16.41% | 68.03% | |
65 Neutral | $44.33B | 46.67 | 9.44% | ― | 47.86% | 96.46% |
* Financial Sector Average
CME
CME Group
295.30
41.33
16.27%
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81.20
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CME Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
CME Group Announces Updated Client Pricing and Disclosure
Neutral
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2026, CME Group Inc. notified its clients of pricing changes via Special Executive Report 9676 and made the notice available on its website, signaling an adjustment to the cost structure associated with its services. The company als...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.