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S&P Global (SPGI)
NYSE:SPGI
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S&P Global
(NYSE:SPGI)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$482.00
▲(15.45% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/11/26
The score is driven by strong financial performance and a solid, upbeat 2026 outlook from the earnings call (growth, margin expansion, and buybacks), but is held back by very weak technical momentum and a premium valuation with a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High-margin diversified franchise
S&P Global's structurally high adjusted operating margin (47.3% in FY2025) reflects a scalable mix of data, ratings and index licensing. Persistent margin advantages support recurring cash generation, fund reinvestment and buybacks, and provide resilience through capital-markets cycles.
Recurring subscription and licensing revenue
With Market Intelligence ~85% subscription-based and steady mid-single-digit growth, S&P Global benefits from predictable, sticky revenue streams. High recurring revenue improves cash flow visibility, underpins long-term margin stability and reduces earnings volatility from one-off transactions.
Productivity, AI and private-markets momentum
Enterprise Data Office automation processing >50% of workflows, plus rapid With Intelligence integration, creates durable operating leverage. Structural productivity gains and AI-enabled product enhancements can sustainably lower costs, accelerate cross-sell and expand private-markets revenue.
Negative Factors
Cyclicality from issuance and volume-driven products
A material portion of S&P Global's revenue is linked to issuance and volume-sensitive MI products. Structural dependence on capital-markets activity means multi-quarter swings in billed issuance and transaction volumes can meaningfully pressure Ratings and volume-linked data revenue, reducing predictability.
Rising leverage after recent debt issuance
The $1B senior notes offering, together with a noted uptick in leverage in 2025 versus 2024, increases interest and refinancing obligations. Higher net debt modestly reduces financial flexibility for opportunistic M&A, buybacks or absorbing cyclical revenue shocks over the medium term.
Softening free cash flow and cash-conversion clarity
Although historically cash generation tracked earnings, 2025 showed a decline in free cash flow and limited cash-conversion data. Weaker FCF momentum constrains discretionary capital allocation and raises the risk that buybacks/dividends or strategic investments are less sustainable if the trend persists.
S&P Global (SPGI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$125.31B
Dividend Yield0.73%
Average Volume (3M)2.93M
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.6
Beta (1Y)0.79
Revenue Growth9.04%
EPS Growth21.35%
CountryUS
Employees42,350
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.30
Shares Outstanding298,800,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,326,252
30 Day Avg. Volume2,934,215
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.91
Price to Book (P/B)5.10
Price to Sales (P/S)10.39
P/FCF Ratio29.19
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue9.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.89
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.05
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$543.44Price Target Upside30.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
S&P Global Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionS&P Global Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics, and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. It operates in six divisions: S&P Global Ratings, S&P Dow Jones Indices, S&P Global Commodity Insights, S&P Global Market Intelligence, S&P Global Mobility, and S&P Global Engineering Solutions. The S&P Global Ratings division operates as an independent provider of credit ratings, research, and analytics, offering investors and other market participants information, ratings, and benchmarks. The S&P Dow Jones Indices division is an index provider that maintains various valuation and index benchmarks for investment advisors, wealth managers, and institutional investors. The S&P Global Commodity Insights division offers data and insights for global energy and commodity markets and enable its customers to make decisions. The S&P Global Market Intelligence division delivers data and technology solutions for customers to provide insights for making decisions. It offers data and services that bring end-to-end workflow solutions, including capital formation, data and distribution, ESG and sustainability, leveraged loans, private markets, sector coverage, supply chain, and issuer solutions, as well as credit, risk, and regulatory solutions. The S&P Global Mobility division provides insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling its customers to anticipate change and make decisions. The S&P Global Engineering Solutions division offers engineering expertise and solutions in industries, such as aerospace and defense, energy, architecture, construction, and transportation. Its solutions empower business and technical leaders to transform workflows and make decisions. S&P Global Inc. was founded in 1860 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyS&P Global generates revenue through several key streams. The Ratings segment earns fees from issuers of debt securities and other financial instruments for credit ratings and related services. Market Intelligence derives revenue from subscriptions to its data and analytics platforms, which cater to financial professionals and institutions seeking insights and risk assessment tools. Platts generates revenue from providing price assessments and market intelligence for energy and commodities, often through subscriptions and data services. The S&P Dow Jones Indices segment earns licensing fees from investment products tied to its indices, as well as revenue from data products. Significant partnerships with financial institutions and corporations enhance S&P Global's offerings and expand its market reach, contributing to its overall earnings.
S&P Global Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Recurring Revenue as a Percent of Revenue
Indicates the stability and predictability of income, showcasing the strength of subscription-based or repeat business models.
Indicates the stability and predictability of income, showcasing the strength of subscription-based or repeat business models.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyS&P Global Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive tone: S&P Global reported strong full-year results (revenue growth, margin expansion, 14% EPS growth), meaningful strategic progress (AI product launches, private markets growth, rapid With Intelligence integration), solid subscription momentum, and constructive 2026 guidance (6%–8% organic growth, margin expansion, 9%–10% EPS growth). The company also acknowledged several material near-term headwinds — sanctions, volume-driven revenue volatility (particularly bank loans and MI volume products), Energy Transition softness, integration-related expenses, and macro/geopolitical uncertainty that could weigh on issuance-sensitive businesses. Overall, executives framed these as manageable, with productivity initiatives and AI-enabled efficiencies expected to drive long-term margin and revenue benefits.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
Reported revenue grew 9% for FY2025 with organic constant-currency revenue up 8%; adjusted diluted EPS grew 14% year-over-year and finished the year at the high end of guidance.
Margin Expansion and Expense Discipline
Adjusted operating margin expanded 60 basis points year-over-year to 47.3% (130 bps ex-OSTTRA), demonstrating continued margin expansion alongside strategic reinvestments.
Capital Return to Shareholders
Returned 113% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders, announced 53rd consecutive dividend increase and repurchased more than $5 billion in stock in 2025; plan to execute roughly $1 billion more buybacks in early 2026.
Private Markets Momentum
Private Markets revenue grew 16% year-over-year, driven primarily by Ratings and Market Intelligence, with new product launches (private equity benchmarks/indices) and acquisitions/partnerships (With Intelligence, Cambridge Associates/Mercer).
Ratings and Indices Strong Performance
Ratings revenue increased 12% (10% organic) with transaction revenue +12% and non-transaction +11%; Ratings operating margin expanded 210 bps to 61.8%. S&P Dow Jones Indices revenue grew 14%, ETD revenue +20%, and Indices margin expanded 90 bps to 68.8%.
Subscription Business Momentum (Market Intelligence & Energy)
Market Intelligence subscription revenue (≈85% of MI) grew ~7% in the quarter (organic cc growth ~5–7%); Energy subscription offerings and benchmarks showed demand with Energy revenue up 6% in the quarter and Price Assessments +8%.
Productivity & Enterprise Data Office Progress
EDO automation processed over half of all data workflows, eliminated >10% of applications, and targets >20% run-rate expense reduction by end of 2027; early productivity gains already realized.
Rapid Integration of With Intelligence
Acquisition closed at end of November; linked >75% of fund manager/investor datasets in <1 month, enabled SSO via Capital IQ Pro in January, held 20 regional training sessions and generated >200 new sales leads/cross-sell opportunities within first 60 days; realized cost synergies and accelerated close (sub-6 weeks).
AI Advancement and Product Innovation
Broad AI rollout across divisions (new AI products and features, platform-agnostic GenAI collaborations with major tech partners); early paid add-ons (e.g., automated data ingestion for iLEVEL) showing strong initial adoption (~20% opt-in within 6 months).
Forward Guidance
2026 guidance calls for organic constant-currency revenue growth of 6%–8%, adjusted operating margin expansion of 50–75 bps (ex-OSTTRA), and adjusted diluted EPS of $19.40–$19.65 (9%–10% growth).
Negative Updates
Market-Driven Headwinds and Issuance Volatility
Billed Issuance in 2025 was a record (up 11%, >$4.3T), creating a tough 2026 compare; base-case expects billed issuance up low- to mid-single digits and management warns of quarter-to-quarter volatility with potential negative billed issuance in Q4 2026 if market conditions deteriorate.
Sanctions and Energy Headwinds
Sanctions in H2 2025 created a $3 million headwind to Q4 revenue in Energy; guidance assumes ~60 bps of headwind to Energy revenue in 2026 from sanctions and noted softer consulting/events (Advisory and transactional services -5% in the quarter).
Energy Transition & Sustainability Softness
Energy Transition and Sustainability revenue decreased 3% in the quarter to $101 million due to customers slowing spending on consulting and one-time transactions in certain geographies.
Volume-Driven Product Volatility in Market Intelligence
Volume-driven and one-time MI revenues were flattish in Q4 with notable slowdown in some primary market/book-building and bank loan-related products; ClearPar and loan-trade-driven products were lower, contributing to MI margin impact.
Bank Loan Issuance Weakness and Mix Shift
Billed Issuance mix shifted toward investment grade (investment-grade issuance growth outpaced bank loans); Ratings saw a low double-digit decline in billed issuance from bank loans, producing a gap between 28% billed issuance growth and 12% transaction revenue growth in the quarter.
Upfront Integration Costs and Near-Term Expense Pressure
Accelerated With Intelligence close led to higher-than-expected expenses in Q4 (some short-term margin headwinds); adjusted expenses in several divisions rose due to compensation and strategic investments (e.g., With Intelligence, AI infrastructure).
Higher-Than-Expected Tax Rate
Full-year tax rate came in above internal expectations and near the high end of guidance; management noted EPS would have been roughly $0.08 higher if tax rate had been at midpoint.
Upstream Energy Stabilization Timeline
Upstream Data & Insights showed only slight revenue increases and management expects multiple quarters to stabilize and reposition parts of Upstream due to lower oil prices and market uncertainty.
Dependence on Macro and Geopolitical Factors
Management emphasized that guidance and market-driven businesses (Ratings, volume-driven MI products, Indices ETDs) remain sensitive to macroeconomic, geoeconomic and geopolitical risks; downside scenarios could materially impact billed issuance and revenues.
Mobility Spin Uncertainty Affects GAAP Guidance
Timing of the planned Mobility spin remains uncertain; S&P Global will fully consolidate Mobility in 2026 guidance until separation is complete, delaying GAAP guidance clarity and requiring future recast reporting post-spin.
Company Guidance
S&P Global guided 2026 organic constant‑currency revenue growth of 6–8% (reported ~60bps higher), adjusted operating‑margin expansion of 50–75bps excluding OSTTRA (10–35bps including OSTTRA), and adjusted diluted EPS of $19.40–$19.65 (up ~9–10% y/y). By division they expect Market Intelligence +5.5–7% (subscription revenue expected toward the top half; subscription ≈85% of MI), Ratings +4–7% (assumes Billed Issuance up low‑ to mid‑single digits; recall 2025 Billed Issuance was +11% and >$4.3T), Energy +5.5–7% (about a 60bps headwind from sanctions), Mobility +7.5–9%, and Indices +10–12% (assumes market appreciation 5–7% Jan–Dec and low‑single‑digit ETD growth). Management also noted key assumptions and actions: two U.S. Fed cuts expected in H2, 2026 guidance includes Mobility until the spin is complete, a targeted ~$1B buyback in Q1 (after >$5B repurchased in 2025), ongoing strategic investments in private markets/AI/energy, and productivity goals tied to the enterprise data office (aiming for >20% run‑rate expense reduction by end‑2027, with >50% of data workflows automated and >10% of applications eliminated).S&P Global Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong overall fundamentals supported by high, scalable profitability and material multi-year revenue growth. Balance sheet leverage is currently moderate but has ticked up recently, and cash-flow momentum softened in 2025 with some cash-conversion data limitations, creating modest quality-of-trend uncertainty.Income Statement
SPGI shows strong, scalable profitability with consistently high operating and net margins across 2020–2025. Revenue has grown materially over the period (from ~$7.4B in 2020 to ~$15.3B in 2025), though the latest year’s growth rate decelerated versus prior years. Profitability remains a clear strength, but the trajectory is not perfectly smooth—2022 had notably higher operating profitability than 2023–2024, and the 2025 gross margin appears unusually high versus history (potentially mix/accounting-driven), which adds some quality-of-trend uncertainty.86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable in recent years, with debt-to-equity in a moderate range in 2022–2025 (~0.32–0.43) and equity remaining sizable relative to total assets. Returns on equity improved from 2022–2025, indicating better earnings power on the capital base. The main weakness is historical balance-sheet volatility (very high leverage in 2020–2021) and a recent uptick in leverage in 2025 versus 2024, which is worth monitoring even though absolute levels remain reasonable for the business.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is solid: operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently positive and generally track reported earnings well in most years (free cash flow close to net income in 2020–2024). However, free cash flow declined in 2025 (negative growth), and key cash-conversion ratios for 2025 are shown as 0.0 in the provided data, limiting confidence in the latest-year cash-flow quality assessment. Overall, cash flow remains a strength, but recent momentum is softer and 2025 data quality is a constraint.74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 15.34B | 14.21B | 12.50B | 11.18B | 8.30B |
| Gross Profit | 10.77B | 9.82B | 8.36B | 7.43B | 6.12B |
| EBITDA | 7.69B | 6.78B | 5.15B | 6.02B | 4.46B |
| Net Income | 4.47B | 3.85B | 2.63B | 3.25B | 3.02B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 61.20B | 60.22B | 60.59B | 61.78B | 15.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.80B | 1.69B | 1.32B | 1.30B | 6.51B |
| Total Debt | 14.20B | 11.93B | 12.00B | 11.65B | 4.70B |
| Total Liabilities | 25.05B | 22.71B | 22.49B | 22.04B | 9.49B |
| Stockholders Equity | 31.23B | 33.16B | 34.20B | 36.48B | 2.03B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.46B | 5.57B | 3.57B | 2.51B | 3.56B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.65B | 5.69B | 3.71B | 2.60B | 3.60B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -704.00M | -255.00M | 562.00M | 3.63B | -120.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.93B | -5.00B | -4.28B | -11.33B | -1.01B |
S&P Global Technical Analysis
Negative
417.48
Price Trends
499.03
Negative
493.64
Negative
509.84
Negative
Market Momentum
-30.00
Positive
30.64
Neutral
46.93
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SPGI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 417.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 461.96, below the 50-day MA of 499.03, and below the 200-day MA of 509.84, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -30.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SPGI.
S&P Global Risk Analysis
S&P Global disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. S&P Global reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
S&P Global Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $109.10B | 27.11 | 14.63% | 3.92% | 5.84% | 8.51% | |
76 Outperform | $40.06B | 34.75 | ― | 1.24% | 9.02% | 3.45% | |
72 Outperform | $88.13B | 26.92 | 11.72% | 1.19% | 8.96% | 30.16% | |
71 Outperform | $80.42B | 32.98 | 64.55% | 0.73% | 8.77% | 13.62% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $125.31B | 28.62 | 13.91% | 0.73% | 9.04% | 21.35% | |
65 Neutral | $46.69B | 26.58 | 15.28% | 1.07% | 16.41% | 68.03% |
* Financial Sector Average
SPGI
S&P Global
417.48
-111.83
-21.13%
CME
CME Group
308.09
64.97
26.72%
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange
154.01
-12.52
-7.52%
MCO
Moody's
447.82
-49.34
-9.92%
MSCI
MSCI
544.11
-21.81
-3.85%
NDAQ
Nasdaq
81.87
2.90
3.67%
S&P Global Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
S&P Global Announces Q4 2025 Results and 2026 Outlook
Neutral
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, S&P Global Inc. reported its results of operations and financial condition for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The company also released guidance for 2026, offering investors and other market participants updated insight into its expected financial and operational trajectory for the coming year.
The disclosure was made via an earnings release furnished with a Form 8-K, with S&P Global specifying that this information is not deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The company further clarified that the release will only be incorporated into other securities filings if explicitly referenced, signaling a standard regulatory approach to managing liability and use of the disclosed data.
The most recent analyst rating on (SPGI) stock is a Buy with a $627.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on S&P Global stock, see the SPGI Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board Changes
S&P Global Appoints Hubert Joly as New Director
Neutral
Dec 16, 2025
On December 10, 2025, S&P Global‘s Board of Directors appointed Hubert Joly as a Director, effective January 2, 2026, expanding the Board from ten to eleven members. Mr. Joly will join the Compensation and Leadership Development Committee and Audit Committee, receiving standard compensation for non-employee Directors and participating in the company’s deferred stock and compensation plans, indicating a strategic move to strengthen governance and leadership.
The most recent analyst rating on (SPGI) stock is a Buy with a $640.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on S&P Global stock, see the SPGI Stock Forecast page.
Private Placements and Financing
S&P Global Announces Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
Dec 4, 2025
S&P Global has announced a Senior Notes Offering, which is a significant financial maneuver for the company. This move is expected to impact the company’s financial operations and could have implications for its stakeholders, although specific details on the impact were not provided.
The most recent analyst rating on (SPGI) stock is a Buy with a $546.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on S&P Global stock, see the SPGI Stock Forecast page.
Private Placements and Financing
S&P Global Announces $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
Dec 1, 2025
On December 1, 2025, S&P Global Inc. announced the pricing of a private offering of $1 billion in senior notes, with $600 million due in 2031 and $400 million due in 2035. These notes, guaranteed by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC, are intended to fund general corporate purposes, including potential acquisitions and debt refinancing, and are expected to close on December 4, 2025, subject to customary conditions.
The most recent analyst rating on (SPGI) stock is a Buy with a $657.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on S&P Global stock, see the SPGI Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and Strategy
S&P Global Hosts Investor Day for Strategic Insights
Neutral
Nov 13, 2025
On November 13, 2025, S&P Global announced details about its investor day, which was scheduled to take place on the same day. This event is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s strategic direction and operational plans, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.
The most recent analyst rating on (SPGI) stock is a Buy with a $587.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on S&P Global stock, see the SPGI Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.