Nasdaq (NDAQ)
NASDAQ:NDAQ
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Nasdaq
(NASDAQ:NDAQ)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$95.00
â–²(16.59% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/13/26
Overall score reflects strong underlying business performance and a constructive earnings-call outlook (revenue/ARR growth, margin strength, cash generation and deleveraging), offset by very weak technicals (deeply oversold, below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a valuation that remains somewhat premium for the near-term headwinds outlined in 2026 guidance.
Positive Factors
Recurring revenue / ARR growth
Consistent ARR growth to ~$3.1B indicates a durable shift toward subscription and contract-based revenues, which increases revenue predictability and reduces reliance on volatile trading fees. Over 2–6 months this supports stable top-line and easier long-term planning and cross-sell execution.
Negative Factors
Rising operating expense guidance
Management-guided opex growth implies ongoing investment that can compress incremental margins if revenue growth slows. Over the next several quarters, rising fixed costs raise the bar for required revenue growth to preserve operating leverage and free cash flow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring revenue / ARR growth
Consistent ARR growth to ~$3.1B indicates a durable shift toward subscription and contract-based revenues, which increases revenue predictability and reduces reliance on volatile trading fees. Over 2–6 months this supports stable top-line and easier long-term planning and cross-sell execution.
Read all positive factors
Nasdaq (NDAQ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$46.32B
Dividend Yield1.07%
Average Volume (3M)3.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.7
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth16.41%
EPS Growth68.03%
CountryUS
Employees9,377
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.96
Shares Outstanding568,443,850
10 Day Avg. Volume2,784,869
30 Day Avg. Volume3,740,290
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)4.53
Price to Sales (P/S)6.75
P/FCF Ratio27.87
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.79
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$110.00Price Target Upside35.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)3.92
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.71B
Nasdaq Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nasdaq, Inc. operates as a technology company that serves capital markets and other industries worldwide. The Market Technology segment includes anti financial crime technology business, which offers Nasdaq Trade Surveillance, a SaaS solution for ...
How the Company Makes Money
Nasdaq primarily makes money through a mix of recurring subscription-based revenue and transaction-linked fees tied to capital markets activity. A major revenue stream is Market Services, where Nasdaq earns transaction revenues from trading activi...
Nasdaq Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Annual Recurring Revenue
Measures the predictable and stable revenue generated from ongoing subscriptions or contracts, highlighting the company's financial stability and potential for sustainable growth.
Measures the predictable and stable revenue generated from ongoing subscriptions or contracts, highlighting the company's financial stability and potential for sustainable growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNasdaq Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum across Nasdaq: record annual revenue, double-digit growth in key metrics (net revenue +12%, ARR +10%), robust index and market services performance, solid free cash flow and deleveraging, and clear product innovation (AI tools, tokenization filing, 23x5 plans). At the same time, management flagged a set of manageable but material near-term headwinds — rising operating expenses (with 2026 guidance), variability from professional services and enterprise implementations, expected quarterly revenue timing impacts (options capture and listed fee amortization), and regulatory/technical uncertainty around tokenization. Overall, the positives (broad-based revenue growth, margin expansion, cash generation, rating upgrades, strategic product launches and client wins) materially outweigh the outlined challenges, which are described and quantified and appear manageable within the company’s stated plan.Positive Updates
Record Annual Revenue and Solutions Mix
Net revenue for fiscal 2025 was $5.2 billion, up 12% year-over-year; Solutions revenue reached $4.0 billion, up 11% and representing 76% of total net revenue, marking the first year Nasdaq surpassed $5B in revenue and $4B in solutions.
Negative Updates
Rising Operating Expenses and Guidance
Operating expense for 2025 increased 7% to $2.331 billion (Q4 expense up 8% to $609 million). 2026 non-GAAP operating expense guidance is $2.455B–$2.535B (implying ~7% organic growth at midpoint), with FX expected to add nearly $20 million and a $25 million net decline from a divestiture and small acquisition.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual Revenue and Solutions Mix
Net revenue for fiscal 2025 was $5.2 billion, up 12% year-over-year; Solutions revenue reached $4.0 billion, up 11% and representing 76% of total net revenue, marking the first year Nasdaq surpassed $5B in revenue and $4B in solutions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Nasdaq's guidance for 2026 highlighted non‑GAAP operating expenses of $2.455–$2.535 billion (roughly a 7% organic increase at the midpoint), a non‑GAAP tax rate of 22.5%–24.5%, and an expected ~ $9 million y/y headwind per quarter from prior‑year delistings, proposed listing‑standards changes and amortization of prior initial listing fees; management also warned of a sequential revenue impact in 1Q26 from a contracted derivatives trading rate reset (with the rate expected to rise once a revenue threshold is crossed, likely early in Q2). The company noted it has already delivered over $160 million of cost reductions, finished 2025 with gross leverage of 2.9x (beating the prior 3.0x target), generated ~$2.2 billion of free cash flow with 109% conversion, paid $1.05 per share ($601 million) in dividends in 2025 (Q4 $0.27 / $153 million; ~31% payout ratio), repurchased 7.2 million shares for $616 million in 2025 (3.2 million / $286 million in Q4), paid down $826 million of debt (including $100 million in Q4), and reiterated a focus on organic growth and selective bolt‑ons while targeting >$100 million of cross‑sell run‑rate revenue by 2027.Nasdaq Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 8.22B | 7.40B | 6.06B | 6.23B | 5.89B |
| Gross Profit | 3.94B | 2.99B | 2.55B | 2.34B | 2.23B |
| EBITDA | 3.13B | 2.46B | 2.00B | 1.85B | 1.93B |
| Net Income | 1.79B | 1.12B | 1.06B | 1.13B | 1.19B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 31.05B | 30.39B | 32.29B | 20.87B | 20.11B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 842.00M | 776.00M | 641.00M | 683.00M | 601.00M |
| Total Debt | 9.93B | 9.87B | 10.87B | 5.85B | 6.22B |
| Total Liabilities | 18.82B | 19.20B | 21.47B | 14.70B | 13.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.23B | 11.19B | 10.82B | 6.15B | 6.39B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.99B | 1.73B | 1.54B | 1.55B | 920.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.25B | 1.94B | 1.70B | 1.71B | 1.08B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.10B | -953.00M | -5.99B | 49.00M | -2.65B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.95B | -2.56B | 4.22B | 1.04B | 1.42B |
Nasdaq Technical Analysis
Negative
81.48
Price Trends
87.88
Negative
89.91
Negative
90.05
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.96
Positive
35.23
Neutral
10.16
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NDAQ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 81.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.97, below the 50-day MA of 87.88, and below the 200-day MA of 90.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.96 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.16 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NDAQ.
Nasdaq Risk Analysis
Nasdaq disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nasdaq reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nasdaq Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $105.36B | 24.28 | 14.48% | 3.92% | 5.84% | 8.51% | |
80 Outperform | $28.57B | 23.89 | 22.99% | 1.06% | 16.74% | 26.74% | |
76 Outperform | $38.46B | 36.82 | -74.96% | 1.24% | 9.02% | 3.45% | |
72 Outperform | $86.70B | 28.00 | 11.60% | 1.19% | 8.96% | 30.16% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $121.38B | 35.63 | 13.62% | 0.73% | 9.04% | 21.35% | |
65 Neutral | $46.32B | 26.70 | 15.03% | 1.07% | 16.41% | 68.03% |
* Financial Sector Average
NDAQ
Nasdaq
81.48
6.53
8.72%
CBOE
Cboe Global Markets
273.00
49.21
21.99%
CME
CME Group
293.78
38.27
14.98%
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange
152.67
-17.83
-10.46%
SPGI
S&P Global
406.24
-97.87
-19.41%
MSCI
MSCI
523.40
-34.57
-6.20%
Nasdaq Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Nasdaq Reports Strong Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
On January 29, 2026, Nasdaq reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, with net revenue reaching $5.25 billion, up 13% year over year, and Solutions revenue surpassing $4.0 billion, up 12%. Fourth-quarter net reve...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Nasdaq Implements Governance Updates and Officer Exculpation Amendments
Positive
Jan 16, 2026
At its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on June 11, 2025, Nasdaq, Inc. obtained shareholder approval for a charter amendment to its Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation to provide for limited officer exculpation, which subsequ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Nasdaq Increases Cap on Tender Offers for Notes
Neutral
Dec 15, 2025
On December 15, 2025, Nasdaq, Inc. announced the early results of its tender offers to purchase certain outstanding notes, increasing the cap for its 5.350% Senior Notes due 2028 to $83,011,000 and for its 3.950% Senior Notes due 2052 to $16,989,0...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.