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Intercontinental Exchange
(NYSE:ICE)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$144.00
â–¼(-6.71% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (durable margins and robust free cash flow) and a very positive earnings call with record results and controlled expense guidance. Valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and modest yield. The main offset is softer technical momentum, with the stock below key moving averages and a negative MACD.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Consistently large absolute free cash flow (TTM ~ $4.6B) provides durable funding for buybacks, dividends, M&A and technology investment. FCF tracking ~91% of net income demonstrates high earnings quality and sustained internal capital generation across market cycles.
Negative Factors
Large Absolute Debt Balance
Although leverage metrics look manageable (debt-to-equity ~0.70), the sizable absolute debt burden reduces financial flexibility. In a rising-rate or tighter credit environment refinancing risk and interest expense sensitivity could constrain strategic optionality over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Consistently large absolute free cash flow (TTM ~ $4.6B) provides durable funding for buybacks, dividends, M&A and technology investment. FCF tracking ~91% of net income demonstrates high earnings quality and sustained internal capital generation across market cycles.
Read all positive factors
Intercontinental Exchange Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Categorizes revenue streams, revealing the diversity and stability of income sources, and indicating potential areas for expansion or vulnerability.
Categorizes revenue streams, revealing the diversity and stability of income sources, and indicating potential areas for expansion or vulnerability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyIntercontinental Exchange (ICE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$75.21B
Dividend Yield1.19%
Average Volume (3M)4.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.3
Beta (1Y)0.56
Revenue Growth14.25%
EPS Growth42.14%
CountryUS
Employees12,842
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.90
Shares Outstanding565,512,500
10 Day Avg. Volume4,821,517
30 Day Avg. Volume4,172,700
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.34
Price to Book (P/B)3.20
Price to Sales (P/S)7.32
P/FCF Ratio21.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.60
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$192.54Price Target Upside24.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)8.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.01B
Intercontinental Exchange Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) manages a global network of regulated financial venues, encompassing exchanges, clearing houses, and listing platforms. These operations serve diverse markets, including commodities, financial instruments, fix...
How the Company Makes Money
ICE primarily makes money by charging fees tied to trading activity, clearing and collateral management, and subscription-based data and technology services.
1) Exchange transaction revenues: ICE earns fees when market participants trade futures ...
Intercontinental Exchange Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive: broad, record-breaking financial and operational results across Exchange, FIDS, and Mortgage Technology drove high revenue, EPS and free cash flow growth. Management emphasized structural and secular drivers (risk management demand, data & AI, mortgage digitization), executed buybacks, and advanced several product and infrastructure initiatives. Headwinds are largely cyclical, timing-related (mortgage origination below normal, data-center comp timing) or strategic/adoption risks (tokenization), and management communicated plans and prudence to mitigate them.Positive Updates
Record Quarter — Company-wide
ICE delivered its strongest quarter in company history: adjusted EPS $2.35 (+37% YoY), net revenue $3.0B (+18% YoY), and adjusted operating income $1.9B (+26% YoY).
Negative Updates
Mortgage Market Remains Below Normalized Potential
Management acknowledged the broader mortgage origination market remains well below long-run normalized levels; some recurring revenue improvement benefited from roughly $4M of one-time items and certain subscription renewals remain a headwind to be managed.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarter — Company-wide
ICE delivered its strongest quarter in company history: adjusted EPS $2.35 (+37% YoY), net revenue $3.0B (+18% YoY), and adjusted operating income $1.9B (+26% YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's formal guidance was fairly narrow: Q1 adjusted operating expenses were $1.035 billion (in line with the midpoint of the updated range) and Q2 adjusted operating expenses are expected to be roughly flat at $1.030–$1.040 billion; Q1 Mortgage Technology recurring revenue was $401 million (including about $4 million of one‑time items) and Q2 recurring revenues are expected to remain around current levels; and for Fixed Income & Data Services they reiterated full‑year recurring revenue targets toward the higher end of a "mid‑single‑digit" growth range — all while underscoring confidence in 2026 given Q1 results (adjusted EPS $2.35, +37% YoY; net revenue $3.0 billion, +18%; adjusted operating income $1.9 billion, +26%; adjusted free cash flow $1.2 billion).Intercontinental Exchange Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.07B | 12.64B | 11.76B | 9.90B | 9.64B | 9.17B |
| Gross Profit | 9.02B | 7.82B | 6.52B | 5.66B | 5.20B | 5.02B |
| EBITDA | 6.63B | 6.64B | 6.08B | 4.92B | 3.46B | 7.13B |
| Net Income | 3.92B | 3.30B | 2.75B | 2.37B | 1.45B | 4.06B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 179.18B | 136.89B | 139.43B | 136.08B | 194.34B | 193.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.38B | 3.62B | 1.37B | 2.11B | 7.95B | 607.00M |
| Total Debt | 20.98B | 20.28B | 20.70B | 22.91B | 18.38B | 14.17B |
| Total Liabilities | 149.62B | 107.90B | 111.71B | 110.30B | 171.58B | 170.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 29.56B | 28.91B | 27.65B | 25.72B | 22.71B | 22.71B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.56B | 4.29B | 4.20B | 3.05B | 3.07B | 2.67B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.02B | 4.66B | 4.61B | 3.54B | 3.55B | 3.12B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.52B | -4.25B | -921.00M | -8.80B | 677.00M | -786.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 32.30B | -6.33B | 79.00M | -64.34B | -1.84B | 62.03B |
Intercontinental Exchange Technical Analysis
Negative
154.36
Price Trends
145.25
Negative
152.18
Negative
155.97
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.61
Negative
45.00
Neutral
43.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ICE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 154.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 133.93, above the 50-day MA of 145.25, and below the 200-day MA of 155.97, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ICE.
Intercontinental Exchange Risk Analysis
Intercontinental Exchange disclosed 3 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Intercontinental Exchange reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements Q3, 2024
2.
Contractual Obligations and Commercial Commitments Q3, 2024
Intercontinental Exchange Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $85.73B | 20.05 | 15.25% | 3.92% | 7.54% | 18.50% | |
77 Outperform | $75.21B | 19.27 | 13.57% | 1.19% | 14.25% | 42.14% | |
77 Outperform | $130.21B | 27.82 | 14.80% | 0.73% | 8.54% | 24.07% | |
76 Outperform | $85.69B | 35.04 | 66.74% | 0.73% | 8.95% | 20.40% | |
71 Outperform | $26.06B | 21.21 | 24.63% | 1.06% | 10.61% | 53.46% | |
71 Outperform | $47.88B | 25.20 | 15.91% | 1.07% | 5.79% | 50.79% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange
132.99
-47.81
-26.44%
CBOE
Cboe Global Markets
248.99
20.02
8.74%
CME
CME Group
236.60
-29.74
-11.17%
SPGI
S&P Global
439.89
-56.88
-11.45%
MCO
Moody's
490.51
-10.36
-2.07%
NDAQ
Nasdaq
84.66
-4.29
-4.82%
Intercontinental Exchange Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Intercontinental Exchange Shareholders Reaffirm Board and Governance
Positive
May 19, 2026
At its May 15, 2026 annual meeting, Intercontinental Exchange stockholders elected eleven directors, including Chair and CEO Jeffrey C. Sprecher, to one-year terms expiring at the 2027 annual meeting, reaffirming the company’s existing board...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.