Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE)
NYSE:ICE
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Intercontinental Exchange
(NYSE:ICE)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$169.00
â–²(4.34% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/06/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial fundamentals (high margins, rising net income, and robust free cash flow) and a supportive earnings outlook highlighted by record performance and accelerating Black Knight synergies. Offsetting factors include a relatively high P/E with a modest dividend yield and a mixed/neutral technical picture with the stock near key moving averages.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
ICE's multi-year ability to convert earnings into cash (FCF ~$4.29B and ~92% of net income) underpins durable shareholder returns, funds strategic capex (AI/data centers) without heavy external financing, and provides a buffer for cyclical revenue swings.
Negative Factors
High Absolute Debt Load
Although leverage ratios improved, an absolute debt stock near $20.3B raises interest and refinancing exposure. In a rising-rate or slower-growth environment this debt level can constrain strategic M&A, higher capex or elevated buybacks, reducing maneuverability over months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
ICE's multi-year ability to convert earnings into cash (FCF ~$4.29B and ~92% of net income) underpins durable shareholder returns, funds strategic capex (AI/data centers) without heavy external financing, and provides a buffer for cyclical revenue swings.
Read all positive factors
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$91.98B
Dividend Yield1.19%
Average Volume (3M)3.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.0
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth8.96%
EPS Growth30.16%
CountryUS
Employees12,842
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.71
Shares Outstanding567,896,500
10 Day Avg. Volume2,908,727
30 Day Avg. Volume3,426,860
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.34
Price to Book (P/B)3.20
Price to Sales (P/S)7.32
P/FCF Ratio21.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.82
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.25
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.74
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$196.82Price Target Upside21.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)7.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.77B
Intercontinental Exchange Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates regulated exchanges, clearing houses, and listings venues for commodity, financial, fixed income, and equity markets in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European U...
How the Company Makes Money
ICE generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged for trading and clearing services on its exchanges. The key revenue streams include market data sales, where it monetizes information and analytics provided to market participants, a...
Intercontinental Exchange Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Categorizes revenue streams, revealing the diversity and stability of income sources, and indicating potential areas for expansion or vulnerability.
Categorizes revenue streams, revealing the diversity and stability of income sources, and indicating potential areas for expansion or vulnerability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyIntercontinental Exchange Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple record metrics across revenues, earnings, trading volumes, index AUM and recurring revenue streams, highlighted successful integration of Black Knight with accelerating synergies, strong free cash flow and shareholder returns, and continued investment in AI and infrastructure. Management acknowledged manageable headwinds in mortgage recurring revenues from lower minimums, some client attrition related to M&A, modest expense growth (including a one‑time stock‑based compensation charge), and pockets of softer fixed income retail/treasury activity. On balance the positive operational and financial momentum, recurring revenue durability, and strategic investments materially outweigh the disclosed challenges.Positive Updates
Record Full-Year Financial Performance
Adjusted EPS of $6.95, up 14% YoY; full-year net revenues of $9.9B, up 6% YoY; adjusted operating income of $6.0B, up 9% YoY; adjusted free cash flow of $4.2B.
Negative Updates
Mortgage Recurring Revenue Headwinds from Lower Minimums
Some customer renewals came in at lower minimums (not fully eliminated), creating recurring revenue headwinds in 2025 and into 2026 despite offset from higher per‑transaction pricing and synergies.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Full-Year Financial Performance
Adjusted EPS of $6.95, up 14% YoY; full-year net revenues of $9.9B, up 6% YoY; adjusted operating income of $6.0B, up 9% YoY; adjusted free cash flow of $4.2B.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ICE guided 2026 with adjusted operating expenses projected to grow 4–5% (or $4.075B–$4.14B), which includes roughly $25M of accelerated stock‑based compensation (implying lower incremental stock expense in 2027–28); excluding that and FX items, expense growth is expected to be 3–4%. Currency-driven depreciation in the euro and pound is expected to add about $15–20M (largely revenue‑offset). Capital spending is guided to $740M–$790M, including ≈$250M of real‑estate investment to build data‑center capacity and offices, plus AI infrastructure (GPUs, storage, network). By segment, Exchange recurring revenues are expected to grow in the mid‑single‑digit range; Fixed Income & Data Services recurring revenues are expected to grow mid‑single digits, trending toward the high end, underpinned by another year of high‑single‑digit growth in Data & Network Technology; Mortgage Technology revenues are guided to low‑ to mid‑single‑digit growth (high end assumes industry originations grow in the low‑teens, low end assumes flat to modest growth) with continued recurring revenue growth and revenue synergies nearly doubled from $55M (YE‑2024) to ≈$100M (YE‑2025). Separately, annualized expense synergies from the 2023 Black Knight acquisition exited 2025 at ≈$230M and are now expected to reach $275M by 2028.Intercontinental Exchange Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12.64B | 11.76B | 9.90B | 9.64B | 9.17B |
| Gross Profit | 7.82B | 6.52B | 5.66B | 5.20B | 5.02B |
| EBITDA | 6.64B | 6.08B | 4.92B | 3.46B | 7.13B |
| Net Income | 3.30B | 2.75B | 2.37B | 1.45B | 4.06B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 136.89B | 139.43B | 136.08B | 194.34B | 193.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.62B | 1.37B | 2.11B | 7.95B | 607.00M |
| Total Debt | 20.28B | 20.70B | 22.91B | 18.38B | 14.17B |
| Total Liabilities | 107.90B | 111.71B | 110.30B | 171.58B | 170.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 28.91B | 27.65B | 25.72B | 22.71B | 22.71B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.29B | 4.20B | 3.05B | 3.07B | 2.67B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.66B | 4.61B | 3.54B | 3.55B | 3.12B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.25B | -921.00M | -8.80B | 677.00M | -786.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.33B | 79.00M | -64.34B | -1.84B | 62.03B |
Intercontinental Exchange Technical Analysis
Positive
161.97
Price Trends
160.88
Positive
161.00
Positive
165.55
Negative
Market Momentum
1.00
Negative
52.26
Neutral
82.82
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ICE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 161.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 159.44, above the 50-day MA of 160.88, and below the 200-day MA of 165.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.82 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ICE.
Intercontinental Exchange Risk Analysis
Intercontinental Exchange disclosed 3 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Intercontinental Exchange reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements Q3, 2024
2.
Contractual Obligations and Commercial Commitments Q3, 2024
Intercontinental Exchange Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $107.20B | 24.28 | 14.48% | 3.92% | 5.84% | 8.51% | |
80 Outperform | $30.86B | 23.89 | 22.99% | 1.06% | 16.74% | 26.74% | |
72 Outperform | $91.98B | 28.00 | 11.60% | 1.19% | 8.96% | 30.16% | |
71 Outperform | $77.70B | 37.25 | 62.81% | 0.73% | 8.77% | 13.62% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $126.79B | 35.63 | 13.62% | 0.73% | 9.04% | 21.35% | |
65 Neutral | $47.87B | 26.70 | 15.03% | 1.07% | 16.41% | 68.03% |
* Financial Sector Average
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange
161.97
7.87
5.11%
CBOE
Cboe Global Markets
294.82
82.10
38.60%
CME
CME Group
298.93
47.03
18.67%
SPGI
S&P Global
424.32
-37.17
-8.05%
MCO
Moody's
438.22
13.15
3.09%
NDAQ
Nasdaq
84.21
13.54
19.16%
Intercontinental Exchange Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Intercontinental Exchange Completes $1.25 Billion Notes Offering
Positive
Nov 17, 2025
On November 17, 2025, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. completed a public offering of $1.25 billion in senior notes, with the proceeds intended to repay existing debt maturing in December 2025. This strategic financial move is expected to strengthe...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.