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Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE)
NYSE:ICE
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) AI Stock Analysis

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ICE

Intercontinental Exchange

(NYSE:ICE)

Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
$213.00
â–²(13.29% Upside)
Intercontinental Exchange scores highly due to its strong financial performance, including robust revenue and profit growth, and effective cash flow management. Technical indicators are positive but caution is advised due to overbought signals. Valuation is relatively high, suggesting the market expects continued growth. The company’s recent earnings call was very positive with record results, but noted challenges in the mortgage segment and rising expenses.
Positive Factors
Earnings Projection
Intercontinental Exchange Inc. has seen upward revisions in its adjusted earnings per share estimates, which suggests improved financial expectations.
Industry Position
ICE's ability and commitment to digitize the mortgage industry and penetrate the $14b TAM.
Stock Price Target
The analyst's recommendation includes a target price increase to $192, indicating confidence in the stock's future performance.
Negative Factors

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Intercontinental Exchange Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionIntercontinental Exchange (ICE) is a leading global operator of exchanges and clearing houses, and provider of data and listings services. Established in 2000 and headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, ICE operates a network of exchanges and clearing houses for financial and commodity markets, including the New York Stock Exchange. ICE's core services include trading and clearing a wide range of asset classes, providing market data, and offering technology solutions that facilitate financial and commodity trading globally.
How the Company Makes MoneyIntercontinental Exchange primarily makes money through transaction and clearing fees, data services, and listings. The company's revenue model hinges on fees collected from trading and clearing activities on its various exchanges, such as futures, options, and financial instruments. ICE also generates significant income from selling market data and analytics, which are crucial for traders and financial institutions. Additionally, ICE earns revenue from listing fees for companies that choose to list their stocks on the New York Stock Exchange. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions have bolstered ICE's capabilities and expanded its service offerings, further contributing to its revenue streams.

Intercontinental Exchange Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business units, providing insight into which areas are performing well and contributing most to overall growth.
Chart InsightsIntercontinental Exchange's Exchange segment has shown robust growth, reaching record revenues driven by significant increases in transaction, interest rate, and energy revenues. The Fixed Income and Data Services segment also performed well, aligning with the company's strong earnings report. However, the Mortgage Technology segment, despite recent revenue recovery, faces potential challenges due to uncertainties in the mortgage market and strategic risks from partners like Rocket and Flagstar. Investors should watch for impacts on future performance, particularly in the mortgage sector, amid rising operating expenses.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Intercontinental Exchange Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 1.23%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted record financial results, strong performance across all segments, and successful capital return strategies. However, challenges such as the roll-off of inactive loans, M&A-related attrition, and expected increases in operating expenses were noted.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Second Quarter Results
Second quarter adjusted earnings per share were a record $1.81, up 19% year-over-year. Net revenue increased by 9% to a record $2.5 billion.
Exchange Segment Growth
Second quarter net revenues for the Exchange segment reached a record $1.4 billion, up 12% year-over-year. Record transaction revenues of over $1 billion were up 15%, driven by a 20% increase in our interest rate business and 25% growth in energy revenues.
Fixed Income and Data Services Performance
Second quarter revenues totaled a record $597 million, with significant growth in the muni business (28%) and CDS clearing revenue (25%).
Successful Capital Return Strategy
ICE returned $532 million of capital to shareholders during the quarter, including $255 million of share repurchases.
Strong Mortgage Technology Results
Second quarter revenues for the Mortgage Technology segment totaled $531 million, up 5% year-over-year, driven by double-digit revenue growth in transaction revenues.
Negative Updates
Inactive Loans Impact on Recurring Revenue
The recurring revenues in the Mortgage Technology segment are expected to be influenced by the roll-off of inactive loans, which will impact the third quarter.
M&A-Related Attrition
Attrition primarily driven by Mr. Cooper's acquisition of Flagstar is expected to impact the Mortgage Technology segment.
Higher Operating Expenses Expected
Third quarter adjusted operating expenses are expected to increase, driven by higher customer acquisition costs at the NYSE and higher technology spend related to data center build-out.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, ICE achieved record financial results, with adjusted earnings per share reaching $1.81, reflecting a 19% increase year-over-year. Net revenue rose by 9% to $2.5 billion, driven by all three operating segments, while adjusted operating expenses were kept towards the lower end of the guidance at $983 million. The company returned $532 million to shareholders, including $255 million in share repurchases, and reduced leverage to 3x EBITDA. The Exchange segment saw net revenues of $1.4 billion, with a 12% increase year-over-year. The Fixed Income and Data Services segment reported a record $597 million in revenues, with transaction revenues at $114 million. Meanwhile, the Mortgage Technology segment's revenues totaled $531 million, marking a 5% increase year-over-year. Looking ahead, ICE expects third quarter adjusted operating expenses to range between $995 million and $1.005 billion, with adjusted non-operating expenses between $170 million and $175 million.

Intercontinental Exchange Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Intercontinental Exchange displays a strong financial position with impressive revenue growth, high profitability margins, and efficient cash flow management. The balance sheet is solid, though there is room for improvement in equity proportions.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Intercontinental Exchange has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 23.3% increase from 2023 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The company maintains robust profitability metrics, including a gross profit margin of 63.9% and a net profit margin of 23.1% for TTM. Additionally, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid at 37.2% and 47.4% respectively. This consistent growth and high profitability indicate a strong financial performance.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's balance sheet shows a stable equity position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.74 for TTM, which suggests moderate leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is strong at 9.95%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 19.6%, indicating a solid capital structure, though there is room for improvement in equity proportions.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Intercontinental Exchange exhibits steady cash flow with a free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.42, indicating efficient cash conversion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.64, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities. While the free cash flow observed a decline of 5.8% from 2023 to TTM, the overall cash flow management remains robust.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue12.55B11.76B9.90B9.64B9.17B8.24B
Gross Profit7.55B6.52B5.66B5.20B5.02B4.30B
EBITDA6.40B6.08B4.92B3.46B7.13B3.87B
Net Income3.00B2.75B2.37B1.45B4.06B2.09B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets144.18B139.43B136.08B194.34B193.50B126.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.25B1.37B2.11B1.80B607.00M583.00M
Total Debt19.67B20.70B22.91B18.38B14.17B16.86B
Total Liabilities115.65B111.71B110.30B171.58B170.75B106.57B
Stockholders Equity28.44B27.65B25.72B22.71B22.71B19.50B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.38B4.20B3.05B3.07B2.67B2.47B
Operating Cash Flow4.88B4.61B3.54B3.55B3.12B2.88B
Investing Cash Flow-2.08B-921.00M-8.80B677.00M-786.00M-9.83B
Financing Cash Flow3.32B79.00M-64.34B-1.84B62.03B6.74B

Intercontinental Exchange Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price188.02
Price Trends
50DMA
181.29
Positive
100DMA
174.90
Positive
200DMA
166.59
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.99
Negative
RSI
65.38
Neutral
STOCH
82.06
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ICE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 188.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 183.54, above the 50-day MA of 181.29, and above the 200-day MA of 166.59, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.06 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ICE.

Intercontinental Exchange Risk Analysis

Intercontinental Exchange disclosed 3 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Intercontinental Exchange reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements Q3, 2024
2.
Contractual Obligations and Commercial Commitments Q3, 2024

Intercontinental Exchange Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$171.89B43.2711.76%0.67%10.72%23.30%
81
Outperform
$107.27B35.9710.89%0.99%11.44%29.10%
80
Outperform
$101.39B27.2313.62%3.77%11.15%13.98%
79
Outperform
$92.84B43.9855.18%0.70%11.47%16.14%
79
Outperform
$26.02B29.1720.64%1.01%18.99%17.97%
78
Outperform
$55.28B37.0213.28%1.03%23.55%49.91%
67
Neutral
$17.02B11.609.79%3.95%10.61%2.06%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange
188.02
35.97
23.66%
CBOE
Cboe Global Markets
249.50
47.71
23.64%
CME
CME Group
280.95
84.65
43.12%
SPGI
S&P Global
559.13
75.45
15.60%
MCO
Moody's
514.06
57.68
12.64%
NDAQ
Nasdaq
96.45
29.27
43.57%

Intercontinental Exchange Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Intercontinental Exchange Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 21, 2025

The Annual Meeting of Stockholders of Intercontinental Exchange was held on May 16, 2025, where stockholders voted on several key issues. Ten directors were elected to serve one-year terms, an advisory resolution on executive compensation was approved, amendments to the Certificate of Incorporation for regulatory compliance were adopted, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (ICE) stock is a Buy with a $171.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intercontinental Exchange stock, see the ICE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 02, 2025