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Intercontinental Exchange
(NYSE:ICE)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$172.00
â–²(17.98% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (durable margins and cash generation) and a favorable earnings call (record results, raised guidance, and stepped-up capital returns), partially offset by leverage/integration risk from the MarketAxess deal and only moderately supportive technicals with limited indicator coverage.
Positive Factors
Recurring revenue growth
ICE's growing recurring revenue base (market data, analytics, subscriptions) increases revenue visibility and lowers sensitivity to daily trading volumes. Durable subscription cash flows support long-term margin stability, recurring FCF, and predictable reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Negative Factors
Elevated absolute debt and leverage
A large absolute debt load constrains financial flexibility and raises interest expense sensitivity to higher rates. Temporary pro forma leverage near 3.4x limits room for opportunistic spending and increases reliance on execution of deleveraging plans within 18–24 months to restore balance-sheet optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring revenue growth
ICE's growing recurring revenue base (market data, analytics, subscriptions) increases revenue visibility and lowers sensitivity to daily trading volumes. Durable subscription cash flows support long-term margin stability, recurring FCF, and predictable reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Read all positive factors
Intercontinental Exchange Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Categorizes revenue streams, revealing the diversity and stability of income sources, and indicating potential areas for expansion or vulnerability.
Categorizes revenue streams, revealing the diversity and stability of income sources, and indicating potential areas for expansion or vulnerability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyIntercontinental Exchange (ICE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$85.60B
Dividend Yield1.31%
Average Volume (3M)4.35M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.4
Beta (1Y)0.56
Revenue Growth12.60%
EPS Growth35.84%
CountryUS
Employees12,844
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.11
Shares Outstanding561,394,500
10 Day Avg. Volume3,267,339
30 Day Avg. Volume4,351,972
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.34
Price to Book (P/B)3.20
Price to Sales (P/S)7.32
P/FCF Ratio21.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$185.62Price Target Upside27.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)8.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.96B
Intercontinental Exchange Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) manages a global network of regulated financial venues, encompassing exchanges, clearing houses, and listing platforms. These operations serve diverse markets, including commodities, financial instruments, fix...
How the Company Makes Money
ICE primarily makes money by charging fees tied to trading activity, clearing and collateral management, and subscription-based data and technology services.
1) Exchange transaction revenues: ICE earns fees when market participants trade futures ...
Intercontinental Exchange Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive view: record recurring and total revenues, a record second-quarter EPS, raised FIDS guidance, strong Exchange and mortgage momentum, meaningful capital returns, and a strategically justified acquisition of MarketAxess with targeted synergies. Near-term headwinds include higher operating and capital spending (intentional investments), temporary leverage increase to finance the acquisition, one-time items and timing-related variability, and regulatory/integration risk tied to MarketAxess and new product initiatives. Overall, management presented confidence in long-term compounding growth despite manageable near-term costs and execution risks.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Financial Performance
Second quarter net revenues of $2.7 billion (up 5% year-over-year), adjusted operating income of $1.6 billion, and adjusted EPS of $1.90 (a second-quarter record and the second best quarter in company history).
Negative Updates
Higher Operating Expenses Driven by Investments
Adjusted operating expenses of $1.038 billion in Q2 with full-year adjusted operating expense guidance increased to $4.190–$4.230 billion; near-term expense growth driven by performance-related compensation, accelerated data center/GPU investments and product development (capacity-building costs).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Financial Performance
Second quarter net revenues of $2.7 billion (up 5% year-over-year), adjusted operating income of $1.6 billion, and adjusted EPS of $1.90 (a second-quarter record and the second best quarter in company history).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company updated several forward-looking financial and transaction metrics: Q3 adjusted operating expenses are guided to $1.063B–$1.073B and full‑year adjusted operating expenses to $4.190B–$4.230B; full‑year CapEx is now expected to be ~ $850M (Q2 CapEx was $262M); Fixed Income & Data Services recurring revenue growth was raised to 7%–8% for 2026 and Exchange recurring revenues are now expected to grow high single digits for the year, while mortgage recurring revenues should remain around current levels in Q3. On capital allocation and balance sheet, baseline share repurchases are being increased from $350M to $400M per quarter with Board authorization up to $4B; the company repurchased $651M in Q2 and returned $945M in the quarter ($1.8B in H1); leverage ended Q2 at 2.8x, gross leverage is expected to peak near ~3.4x pro forma EBITDA from the MarketAxess deal and be pushed back to ≤3.0x within 18–24 months. On the MarketAxess transaction, ICE is acquiring the company for $167/share (EV $5.7B, a 33% premium), implying ~10.6x EV/adjusted EBITDA fully synergized, expects the deal to close in H1 2027, to be immediately accretive to adjusted EPS in year one, and to realize ~ $100M of annualized expense synergies (1/3 in year 1, 2/3 in year 2, full run‑rate by year 3), financed with bonds, a term loan and commercial paper.Intercontinental Exchange Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.42B | 12.64B | 11.76B | 9.90B | 9.64B | 9.17B |
| Gross Profit | 9.86B | 7.82B | 6.52B | 5.66B | 5.20B | 5.02B |
| EBITDA | 6.98B | 6.64B | 6.08B | 4.92B | 3.46B | 7.13B |
| Net Income | 4.03B | 3.30B | 2.75B | 2.37B | 1.45B | 4.06B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 174.25B | 136.89B | 139.43B | 136.08B | 194.34B | 193.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.95B | 3.62B | 1.37B | 2.11B | 7.95B | 607.00M |
| Total Debt | 20.53B | 20.28B | 20.70B | 22.91B | 18.38B | 14.17B |
| Total Liabilities | 144.59B | 107.90B | 111.71B | 110.30B | 171.58B | 170.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 29.55B | 28.91B | 27.65B | 25.72B | 22.71B | 22.71B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.85B | 4.29B | 4.20B | 3.05B | 3.07B | 2.67B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.51B | 4.66B | 4.61B | 3.54B | 3.55B | 3.12B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.44B | -4.25B | -921.00M | -8.80B | 677.00M | -786.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 25.72B | -6.33B | 79.00M | -64.34B | -1.84B | 62.03B |
Intercontinental Exchange Technical Analysis
Positive
145.79
Price Trends
140.07
Positive
148.98
Positive
153.87
Negative
Market Momentum
1.51
Negative
63.10
Neutral
87.61
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ICE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 145.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 142.58, above the 50-day MA of 140.07, and below the 200-day MA of 153.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.61 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ICE.
Intercontinental Exchange Risk Analysis
Intercontinental Exchange disclosed 3 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Intercontinental Exchange reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements Q3, 2024
2.
Contractual Obligations and Commercial Commitments Q3, 2024
Intercontinental Exchange Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $32.47B | 24.10 | 25.75% | 1.01% | 11.68% | 50.39% | |
79 Outperform | $96.29B | 22.60 | 15.53% | 4.41% | 5.10% | 14.78% | |
79 Outperform | $121.44B | 25.07 | 14.80% | 0.86% | 9.67% | 26.18% | |
77 Outperform | $52.65B | 27.14 | 16.31% | 1.22% | 7.35% | 31.93% | |
76 Outperform | $85.60B | 21.45 | 13.81% | 1.37% | 12.60% | 35.84% | |
68 Neutral | $41.60B | 31.48 | -54.14% | 1.40% | 11.62% | 21.00% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange
152.48
-33.59
-18.05%
CBOE
Cboe Global Markets
310.23
61.96
24.96%
CME
CME Group
267.79
-8.56
-3.10%
SPGI
S&P Global
411.93
-116.18
-22.00%
MSCI
MSCI
572.24
8.08
1.43%
NDAQ
Nasdaq
94.19
-1.51
-1.58%
Intercontinental Exchange Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
ICE to Acquire MarketAxess in Strategic Bond Deal
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 29, 2026, ICE agreed to acquire MarketAxess Holdings for $167 per share in cash, a 33% premium to the prior-day close, valuing the electronic fixed income trading specialist at about $6.0 billion in equity and $5.7 billion in enterprise va...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Intercontinental Exchange Shareholders Reaffirm Board and Governance
Positive
May 19, 2026
At its May 15, 2026 annual meeting, Intercontinental Exchange stockholders elected eleven directors, including Chair and CEO Jeffrey C. Sprecher, to one-year terms expiring at the 2027 annual meeting, reaffirming the company’s existing board...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.