Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $88.13B
• Dividend Yield: 1.19%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.57
• Revenue Growth: 8.96%
• EPS Growth: 30.16%
• Country: US
• Employees: 12,842
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges
• EPS (TTM): 1.71
• Shares Outstanding: 567,896,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,935,051
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,215,767
• PEG Ratio: 1.34
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.32
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.22
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.49
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.72
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.12
• 1Y Price Target: $197.25
• Price Target Upside: 28.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.64
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $10.61B

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $169.00 ▲(9.67% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/06/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial fundamentals (high margins, rising net income, and robust free cash flow) and a supportive earnings outlook highlighted by record performance and accelerating Black Knight synergies. Offsetting factors include a relatively high P/E with a modest dividend yield and a mixed/neutral technical picture with the stock near key moving averages.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow Strength

ICE's multi-year ability to convert earnings into cash (FCF ~$4.29B and ~92% of net income) underpins durable shareholder returns, funds strategic capex (AI/data centers) without heavy external financing, and provides a buffer for cyclical revenue swings.

High Margins & Profitability

Strong gross and net margins reflect scalable exchange and data businesses with high operating leverage. Persistent margin advantage supports reinvestment, funds synergies and capital returns, and makes earnings resilient to moderate volume or mix shifts over the medium term.

Diversified Recurring Revenue & Synergies

ICE's mix of exchanges, clearing, market data and integrated Mortgage Technology (Black Knight) increases revenue durability. Realized and expanding Black Knight synergies lower cost base and accelerate recurring revenue scale, reducing reliance on any single market cycle.

Negative Factors

High Absolute Debt Load

Although leverage ratios improved, an absolute debt stock near $20.3B raises interest and refinancing exposure. In a rising-rate or slower-growth environment this debt level can constrain strategic M&A, higher capex or elevated buybacks, reducing maneuverability over months.

Near-term Growth Deceleration

A recent revenue decline and guidance for only mid-single-digit recurring growth imply a pause in top-line momentum. Slower revenue expansion limits operating leverage benefits, makes margin improvement harder, and raises execution burden to convert synergies into higher sustainable growth.

Client Attrition & Execution Risk

Reported client attrition and ongoing platform migrations create durable execution risk: lost or delayed renewals and migration friction can depress recurring revenues and slow realization of cross‑sell synergies, keeping mortgage tech growth vulnerable for multiple quarters.

Intercontinental Exchange Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates regulated exchanges, clearing houses, and listings venues for commodity, financial, fixed income, and equity markets in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Singapore, Israel, and Canada. It operates through three segments: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. The company operates marketplaces for listing, trading, and clearing an array of derivatives contracts and financial securities, such as commodities, interest rates, foreign exchange, and equities, as well as corporate and exchange-traded funds; trading venues, including 13 regulated exchanges and 6 clearing houses; and offers futures and options products for energy, agricultural and metals, financial, cash equities and equity, over-the-counter, and other markets, as well as listings and data and connectivity services. It also provides fixed income data and analytic, fixed income execution, CDS clearing, and other multi-asset class data and network services. In addition, the company offers proprietary and comprehensive mortgage origination platform, which serves residential mortgage loans; closing solutions that provides customers connectivity to the mortgage supply chain and facilitates the secure exchange of information; data and analytics services; and Data as a Service for lenders to access data and origination information. Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

ICE generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged for trading and clearing services on its exchanges. The key revenue streams include market data sales, where it monetizes information and analytics provided to market participants, and listing fees from companies that list their securities on its exchanges, particularly the NYSE. Additionally, ICE earns revenue from its clearinghouse operations, which facilitate the settlement of trades and manage counterparty risk. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships, including collaborations with other financial institutions to enhance its trading and data services, contributing significantly to its overall earnings.

Intercontinental Exchange Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and cash generation: 2025 gross margin ~76% and net margin ~26%, with net income rising to ~$3.32B and free cash flow at ~$4.29B (~92% of net income). Balance sheet leverage is improving (debt-to-equity ~0.70; ROE ~11.4%), but the absolute debt load (~$20.3B) and a near-term growth pause (2025 revenue and FCF slightly down) temper the score.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded over the cycle (2020–2025), but the latest year shows a modest decline (-2.4% in 2025), signaling a near-term growth pause. Profitability is a clear strength: 2025 delivered strong gross margin (~76%) and solid bottom-line margin (~26%), with net income rising from $2.75B (2024) to $3.32B (2025). Margins have been somewhat volatile across years (notably very high in 2021), which is a watch item, but overall earnings power remains strong for the industry.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for a mature exchange/data business: debt-to-equity improved to ~0.70 in 2025 from ~0.89 in 2023, and equity has grown over time. Returns on shareholder capital have also improved (ROE ~11.4% in 2025 vs. ~9.0% in 2023). The main constraint is the absolute debt load (~$20.3B in 2025), which reduces flexibility if growth slows or funding costs rise.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a standout. Operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently strong and trending up over the multi-year period, with 2025 free cash flow at ~$4.29B. Free cash flow closely tracks reported earnings (free cash flow is ~92% of net income in 2025), supporting earnings quality. The key weakness is that 2025 free cash flow growth was slightly negative (-2.7%), pointing to a near-term plateau after a strong 2024.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.64B	11.76B	9.90B	9.64B	9.17B
Gross Profit	7.82B	6.52B	5.66B	5.20B	5.02B
EBITDA	6.64B	6.08B	4.92B	3.46B	7.13B
Net Income	3.30B	2.75B	2.37B	1.45B	4.06B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	136.89B	139.43B	136.08B	194.34B	193.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.62B	1.37B	2.11B	7.95B	607.00M
Total Debt	20.28B	20.70B	22.91B	18.38B	14.17B
Total Liabilities	107.90B	111.71B	110.30B	171.58B	170.75B
Stockholders Equity	28.91B	27.65B	25.72B	22.71B	22.71B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.29B	4.20B	3.05B	3.07B	2.67B
Operating Cash Flow	4.66B	4.61B	3.54B	3.55B	3.12B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.25B	-921.00M	-8.80B	677.00M	-786.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-6.33B	79.00M	-64.34B	-1.84B	62.03B

Intercontinental Exchange Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 154.10
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ICE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 154.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 164.31, below the 50-day MA of 164.43, and below the 200-day MA of 168.58, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ICE.

Intercontinental Exchange Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CME	77 Outperform	$109.10B	27.11	14.63%	3.92%	5.84%	8.51%
CBOE	75 Outperform	$29.86B	27.39	23.25%	1.06%	16.74%	26.74%
ICE	72 Outperform	$88.13B	26.92	11.72%	1.19%	8.96%	30.16%
MCO	71 Outperform	$80.42B	32.98	64.55%	0.73%	8.77%	13.62%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
SPGI	67 Neutral	$125.31B	28.62	13.91%	0.73%	9.04%	21.35%
NDAQ	65 Neutral	$46.69B	26.58	15.28%	1.07%	16.41%	68.03%

Intercontinental Exchange Corporate Events

Intercontinental Exchange Completes $1.25 Billion Notes Offering

On November 17, 2025, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. completed a public offering of $1.25 billion in senior notes, with the proceeds intended to repay existing debt maturing in December 2025. This strategic financial move is expected to strengthen ICE’s financial positioning by managing its debt obligations effectively.

The most recent analyst rating on (ICE) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intercontinental Exchange stock, see the ICE Stock Forecast page.