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Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE)
NYSE:ICE
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Intercontinental Exchange
(NYSE:ICE)
Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:―
Positive Factors
Financial Expectations
Intercontinental Exchange Inc. has seen upward revisions in its adjusted earnings per share estimates, which suggests improved financial expectations.
Stock Performance
The analyst's recommendation includes a target price increase to $192, indicating confidence in the stock's future performance.
Technological Advancements
ICE's ability and commitment to digitize the mortgage industry and penetrate the $14b TAM.
Negative Factors
Investment Analysis
Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decisions, indicating potential limitations in the analysis.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$102.36B
Dividend Yield1.07%
Average Volume (3M)2.66M
Price to Earnings (P/E)37.0
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth13.25%
EPS Growth10.82%
CountryUS
Employees12,842
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength73
IndustryFinancial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.72
Shares Outstanding573,626,300
10 Day Avg. Volume2,248,912
30 Day Avg. Volume2,657,212
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.62
Price to Book (P/B)2.53
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio18.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.72
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.63
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.14
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$193.27Price Target Upside8.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
Intercontinental Exchange Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionIntercontinental Exchange, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates regulated exchanges, clearing houses, and listings venues for commodity, financial, fixed income, and equity markets in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Singapore, Israel, and Canada. It operates through three segments: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. The company operates marketplaces for listing, trading, and clearing an array of derivatives contracts and financial securities, such as commodities, interest rates, foreign exchange, and equities, as well as corporate and exchange-traded funds; trading venues, including 13 regulated exchanges and 6 clearing houses; and offers futures and options products for energy, agricultural and metals, financial, cash equities and equity, over-the-counter, and other markets, as well as listings and data and connectivity services. It also provides fixed income data and analytic, fixed income execution, CDS clearing, and other multi-asset class data and network services. In addition, the company offers proprietary and comprehensive mortgage origination platform, which serves residential mortgage loans; closing solutions that provides customers connectivity to the mortgage supply chain and facilitates the secure exchange of information; data and analytics services; and Data as a Service for lenders to access data and origination information. Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
How the Company Makes MoneyIntercontinental Exchange primarily makes money through transaction and clearing fees, data services, and listings. The company's revenue model hinges on fees collected from trading and clearing activities on its various exchanges, such as futures, options, and financial instruments. ICE also generates significant income from selling market data and analytics, which are crucial for traders and financial institutions. Additionally, ICE earns revenue from listing fees for companies that choose to list their stocks on the New York Stock Exchange. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions have bolstered ICE's capabilities and expanded its service offerings, further contributing to its revenue streams.
Intercontinental Exchange Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business units, providing insight into which areas are performing well and contributing most to overall growth.
Breaks down revenue across different business units, providing insight into which areas are performing well and contributing most to overall growth.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataIntercontinental Exchange Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 6.52%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted record performance across various segments, including energy and interest rate markets, and strong shareholder returns, despite challenges related to operating expenses and potential impacts in the mortgage segment.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record First Quarter Results
First quarter earnings per share of $1.72 were up 16% year-over-year, with net revenue increasing 8% to a record $2.5 billion. Adjusted operating income increased by 11% to reach a record $1.5 billion.
Strong Segment Performance
Exchange segment net revenues totaled a record $1.4 billion, up 12% year-over-year. Fixed Income and Data Services segment revenues totaled a record $596 million. Mortgage Technology results showed revenues of $510 million, with recurring revenues up year-over-year.
Significant Capital Return to Shareholders
The company returned $519 million of capital to shareholders during the quarter, including $241 million of share repurchases.
Record Energy Revenues
Record energy revenues, which grew 23% year-over-year, marked the eighth consecutive quarter of record performance in this segment.
Strong Growth in Interest Rate and Equity Markets
Interest rate business grew 18%, cash equities and options revenues grew 21%, and energy ADV was up 39%.
Negative Updates
Increased Operating Expenses
Second quarter operating expenses are expected to increase to $980 million to $990 million due to a weaker dollar and other factors.
Potential Impact from Flagstar and Rocket Cooper
The company acknowledged potential risks related to Rocket's business strategy and Flagstar's contribution, although no immediate impact on 2025 guidance.
Uncertain Mortgage Market Environment
Concerns regarding the consumer and delays in bank implementations could impact the mortgage segment, despite maintaining guidance.
Company Guidance
During the ICE First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company reported record-breaking results, with earnings per share reaching $1.72, a 16% increase year-over-year. Net revenue rose by 8% to $2.5 billion, and adjusted operating income increased by 11% to $1.5 billion. ICE's Exchange segment achieved a record $1.4 billion in net revenues, driven by a 16% growth in transaction revenues, including an 18% increase in interest rate business and a 23% rise in energy revenues. The Fixed Income and Data Services segment also performed well, with revenues totaling $596 million, while the Mortgage Technology segment reported $510 million in revenues. Looking ahead to the second quarter, ICE expects adjusted operating expenses to range between $980 million and $990 million and non-operating expenses between $175 million and $180 million.Intercontinental Exchange Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Intercontinental Exchange displays a strong financial position with impressive revenue growth, high profitability margins, and efficient cash flow management. While the balance sheet is solid, there is potential for enhancing equity proportions. The company is well-positioned in the financial industry, with a stable outlook and consistent financial performance.Income Statement
Intercontinental Exchange has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 23.3% increase from 2023 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The company maintains robust profitability metrics, including a gross profit margin of 63.9% and a net profit margin of 23.1% for TTM. Additionally, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid at 37.2% and 47.4% respectively. This consistent growth and high profitability indicate a strong financial performance.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a stable equity position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.74 for TTM, which suggests moderate leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is strong at 9.95%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 19.6%, indicating a solid capital structure, though there is room for improvement in equity proportions.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Intercontinental Exchange exhibits steady cash flow with a free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.42, indicating efficient cash conversion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.64, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities. While the free cash flow observed a decline of 5.8% from 2023 to TTM, the overall cash flow management remains robust.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 12.05B | 11.76B | 9.90B | 9.64B | 9.17B | 8.24B | Gross Profit |
| 6.98B | 6.52B | 5.66B | 5.20B | 5.02B | 4.30B | EBIT |
| 4.48B | 4.31B | 3.69B | 2.52B | 6.22B | 3.03B | EBITDA |
| 6.13B | 5.95B | 4.90B | 4.80B | 5.82B | 3.87B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 2.78B | 2.75B | 2.37B | 1.45B | 4.06B | 2.09B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 3.17B | 1.37B | 2.11B | 1.80B | 607.00M | 583.00M | Total Assets |
| 142.87B | 139.43B | 136.08B | 194.34B | 193.50B | 126.20B | Total Debt |
| 20.62B | 20.70B | 22.91B | 18.38B | 14.17B | 16.86B | Net Debt |
| 19.84B | 19.86B | 22.01B | 16.58B | 13.56B | 16.27B | Total Liabilities |
| 114.83B | 111.71B | 110.30B | 171.58B | 170.75B | 106.57B | Stockholders Equity |
| 27.97B | 27.72B | 25.72B | 22.71B | 22.71B | 19.50B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 3.96B | 4.20B | 3.05B | 3.07B | 2.67B | 2.47B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 4.57B | 4.61B | 3.54B | 3.55B | 3.12B | 2.88B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -3.33B | -921.00M | -8.80B | 677.00M | -786.00M | -9.83B | Financing Cash Flow |
| 7.88B | 79.00M | -64.34B | -1.84B | 62.03B | 6.74B |
Intercontinental Exchange Technical Analysis
Positive
178.44
Price Trends
169.66
Positive
168.45
Positive
162.41
Positive
Market Momentum
1.72
Positive
59.22
Neutral
53.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ICE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 178.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 177.12, above the 50-day MA of 169.66, and above the 200-day MA of 162.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ICE.
Intercontinental Exchange Risk Analysis
Intercontinental Exchange disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Intercontinental Exchange reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
The merger will not be completed unless important conditions are satisfied or waived, including approval of the merger agreement by Black Knight’s stockholders. Q2, 2022
2.
After the completion of the merger, we will be more leveraged than we currently are, and the financing arrangements that we will enter into will contain restrictions and limitations that could, under certain circumstances, impact our ability to operate our business. Q2, 2022
3.
We may be unable to successfully integrate Black Knight’s business and realize the anticipated benefits of the merger, and we will incur significant costs in connection with the merger and the integration of Black Knight. Q2, 2022
Intercontinental Exchange Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $49.14B | 38.81 | 11.43% | 1.26% | 25.89% | 16.37% | |
79 Outperform | $102.36B | 36.95 | 10.27% | 1.07% | 13.25% | 10.82% | |
79 Outperform | $97.12B | 27.09 | 13.40% | 1.85% | 11.72% | 13.31% | |
78 Outperform | $23.65B | 29.60 | 18.93% | 1.11% | 15.76% | 1.97% | |
74 Outperform | $153.81B | 39.37 | 11.68% | 0.77% | 12.98% | 42.72% | |
71 Outperform | $207.74B | 15.19 | 13.88% | 2.86% | 6.53% | 55.54% | |
64 Neutral | $12.77B | 9.71 | 7.85% | 78.05% | 12.07% | -7.97% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange
178.44
43.76
32.49%
CBOE
Cboe Global Markets
225.81
57.53
34.19%
CME
CME Group
269.50
81.39
43.27%
SPGI
S&P Global
501.49
71.31
16.58%
MS
Morgan Stanley
129.49
35.45
37.70%
NDAQ
Nasdaq
85.59
27.70
47.85%
Intercontinental Exchange Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Intercontinental Exchange Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 21, 2025
The Annual Meeting of Stockholders of Intercontinental Exchange was held on May 16, 2025, where stockholders voted on several key issues. Ten directors were elected to serve one-year terms, an advisory resolution on executive compensation was approved, amendments to the Certificate of Incorporation for regulatory compliance were adopted, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.
The most recent analyst rating on (ICE) stock is a Buy with a $171.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intercontinental Exchange stock, see the ICE Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.