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Cboe Global Markets Inc (CBOE)
BATS:CBOE

Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) AI Stock Analysis

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CBOE

Cboe Global Markets

(BATS:CBOE)

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Outperform 75 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$311.00
▲(6.77% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:01/27/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial performance (profitability and balance sheet strength) and a constructive earnings outlook with raised growth guidance. These positives are moderated by weakening free cash flow growth, technically overbought conditions, and a relatively expensive valuation with a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
Cboe’s low leverage and strong ROE reflect a conservative capital structure that preserves financial flexibility. Over the medium term this supports investment in product development, selective M&A, and resilience through market cycles, enabling steady capital returns and risk management.
Record revenue and margins
Record revenue and EPS, coupled with a TTM gross margin of ~69.5% and net margin ~21.3%, indicate durable demand and operating leverage across core franchises. Strong margins support reinvestment in tech and data products and provide a buffer against cyclical trading volumes.
Data Vantage growth
High single-digit to low-double-digit growth in Data Vantage driven mainly by new sales signals durable, recurring revenue expansion. This diversifies the fee mix away from transaction sensitivity and enhances long-term margin stability from higher-value data/licensing products.
Negative Factors
Weakening cash flow growth
A sharp 66% decline in FCF growth and modest OCF-to-net-income conversion reduce capacity to fund capex, buybacks, or acquisitions from operations. If cash conversion remains impaired, the company may face tougher choices on capital allocation or increased reliance on balance-sheet measures.
Futures segment weakness
A 22% drop in futures net revenue highlights structural sensitivity to volume declines in a key derivatives product. Persistent futures weakness would increase revenue cyclicality, reduce diversification benefits from derivatives, and pressure long-term top-line stability.
Strategic realignment execution risk
Divestitures and wind-downs aim to focus the core business but are expected to reduce net revenue (~3%) and require execution of sales and wind-down plans. These moves concentrate operations, risk integration or disposal setbacks, and could temporarily disrupt revenue and client relationships.

Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Cboe Global Markets Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCboe Global Markets, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an options exchange worldwide. It operates through five segments: Options, North American Equities, Futures, Europe and Asia Pacific, and Global FX. The Options segment trades in listed market indices. The North American Equities segment trades in listed U.S. and Canadian equities. This segment also offers exchange-traded products (ETP) transaction and ETP listing services. The Futures segment trades in futures. The Europe and Asia Pacific segment offers pan-European listed equities and derivatives transaction services, ETPs, exchange-traded commodities, and international depository receipts, as well as ETP listings and clearing services. The Global FX segment provides institutional foreign exchange (FX) trading and non-deliverable forward FX transactions services. The company has strategic relationships with S&P Dow Jones Indices, LLC; FTSE International Limited; Frank Russell Company; MSCI Inc.; and DJI Opco, LLC. The company was formerly known as CBOE Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Cboe Global Markets, Inc. in October 2017. Cboe Global Markets, Inc. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyCboe Global Markets generates revenue primarily through transaction fees, which are charged for trades executed on its exchanges. These fees are collected from market participants, including retail and institutional investors, as well as market makers. Additionally, CBOE earns revenue from the listing and trading of exchange-traded products (ETPs) and through market data services, which provide valuable trading information to clients. The company also engages in licensing agreements for its proprietary indexes, such as the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which contributes to its revenue stream. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and technology firms further enhance CBOE's product offerings and market reach, ultimately supporting its earnings growth.

Cboe Global Markets Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 06, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive message: Cboe reported record revenue, earnings, and margins with broad-based strength across derivatives, cash/spot, FX and solid DataVantage momentum driven by new sales and product innovation. The company also has a strong balance sheet and returned meaningful capital to shareholders while repositioning leadership and refocusing on core businesses. Notable negatives include the FedEx wind-down, active divestitures (Canada, Australia) that create outcome uncertainty, a 2026 revenue growth target that moderates vs 2025, and rising competition/structural issues in the multi-list options space. Overall, the positive operational and financial performance and clear strategic focus outweigh the outlined challenges.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record quarterly and annual financials
Q4 net revenue of $671 million, up 28% year-over-year; Q4 adjusted diluted EPS of $3.06, up 46% YoY (both records). Full-year net revenue of $2.4 billion, up 17% YoY, and full-year adjusted diluted EPS of $10.67, up 24% YoY.
Strong profitability and margin expansion
Adjusted operating EBITDA of $465 million in Q4, up 40% YoY; adjusted operating EBITDA margin expanded 6.1 percentage points to 69.2%. Adjusted operating expenses were disciplined at $221 million (up 8% YoY).
Derivatives franchise outperformance
Derivatives net revenue increased 38% YoY in Q4. Multi-list options net transaction and clearing fees rose 41%; index options net transaction and clearing fees rose 40%. Proprietary SPX options ADV increased 39% to a record 4.3 million contracts, and SPX zero DTE ADV rose 66% YoY with zero DTE comprising over 61% of SPX volumes (up from 51% a year ago).
Robust VIX and small-cap activity
VIX futures and options volume rose 15% in the quarter; VIX options averaged a record 862,000 contracts/day in 2025. Russell 2000 index options volume jumped 20% in Q4 to the highest level in nearly ten years.
Cash & spot markets strength
Cash and spot net revenue grew 27% YoY in Q4. Europe & APAC segment net revenue increased 24% YoY (Europe net transaction and clearing fees +33%). North American equities net revenue rose 17% with net and clearing fees up 18%. Global FX net revenue was up 22% YoY in Q4.
DataVantage durable growth and product expansion
DataVantage net revenue increased 9% YoY in Q4 and 10% for the full year; roughly 90% of Q4 growth came from new unit/new sales (not pricing). New product rollouts include dedicated cores, time stamping, one-minute open-close data, and an options-like dataset with noted demand in APAC.
Capital returns and strong balance sheet
Returned $76 million in Q4 via a $0.72/share dividend; total dividends in 2025 were $284 million and total capital returned (dividends + repurchases) was $350 million. Adjusted cash position of $2.2 billion and leverage ratio of 0.9x provide flexibility for investment or opportunistic buybacks.
Strategic refocus and leadership enhancement
Company is reallocating resources to core businesses and emerging opportunities, initiated sales processes for Cboe Australia and Cboe Canada, ceased some non-core operations, and announced senior hires (Heidi Fisher and Scott Johnston) to strengthen core business leadership.
Product innovation and market expansion
Plans to launch event/prediction market products (targeting a Q2 launch for binary-style securities-based contracts), extended global trading hours momentum (GTH volume +34% YoY in the quarter), and continued broker onboarding (including Robinhood and APAC brokers) driving international flows.
Negative Updates
FedEx (Cboe Europe derivatives exchange) wind-down
Management decided to close FedEx in January 2026 after determining it was unlikely to meet targeted revenue and profitability metrics in Europe. The financial impact is expected to be largely realized in 2026 (included in guidance) and represents a failed initiative in that market.
Guidance indicates revenue deceleration
Full-year 2026 guidance targets mid-single-digit total organic net revenue growth and mid-to-high single-digit DataVantage organic growth—a notable moderation vs 2025's 17% full-year net revenue growth and may indicate slowing top-line momentum next year.
Ongoing divestitures and associated uncertainty
Active sales processes for Cboe Canada and Cboe Australia create timing and outcome uncertainty. Management previously indicated strategic realignment could imply ~3% net revenue headwind; some of those impacts remain to be realized or clarified.
Competitive and structural pressure in multi-list options
Multi-list options space has expanded (approaching ~20 exchanges) increasing competition; industry discussions around ORF/form and fee alignment could change cost/revenue dynamics and potentially compress per-contract capture.
DataVantage growth lags other businesses
While DataVantage is growing, Q4 revenue grew 9% YoY—behind the much stronger growth rates in derivatives and cash/spot segments—raising questions about near-term acceleration despite product launches and international momentum.
Expense and transition headwinds
Adjusted operating expenses increased 8% YoY (driven by higher compensation due to incentive accruals). 2026 expense guidance anticipates 3.3%–5.1% growth and includes modest inflation, leadership transition costs, FedEx wind-down effects, and investments in new initiatives.
Company Guidance
For 2026 Cboe guided DataVantage organic net revenue growth of mid‑ to high‑single digits and total organic net revenue growth of mid‑single digits, set adjusted operating expenses at $864 million to $879 million (implying ~3.3%–5.1% growth), forecast CapEx of $73 million–$83 million, depreciation & amortization of $56 million–$60 million, and an adjusted effective tax rate of 27.5%–29.5% (midpoint ~80 bps below 2025); they expect net interest income to be a $3 million–$4 million positive contributor, contemplate a small 2026 revenue contribution from new prediction/event contracts, have a roughly 3% net‑revenue headwind contemplated from strategic realignment actions (with Canada and Australia still included in the guide and FedEx wind‑down impacts largely realized in 2026), and enter the year with $2.2 billion of adjusted cash and a 0.9x leverage ratio while retaining flexibility for opportunistic buybacks and dividends.

Cboe Global Markets Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Overall financials are solid: strong income statement (85) with healthy margins and profitability, a robust balance sheet (78) with low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.32) and strong ROE (21.5%). The main drag is cash flow quality (70), including a sharp decline in free cash flow growth (-66% TTM) and only moderate operating cash flow to net income (0.32).
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Cboe Global Markets has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) increase of 1.9% and consistent profitability. The gross profit margin has improved significantly to 69.5% in the TTM, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin is healthy at 21.3%, showing effective conversion of revenue into profit. However, the EBIT margin has slightly decreased compared to previous years, suggesting potential cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's balance sheet is robust with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.32, indicating prudent financial leverage. The return on equity is strong at 21.5%, reflecting efficient use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 53.9%, showcasing a solid capital structure. However, the slight increase in total debt over the years could pose a risk if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cboe's cash flow performance shows mixed results. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is moderate at 0.32, indicating room for improvement in cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 89.2%, suggesting good cash conversion. However, the free cash flow growth rate has declined significantly by 66% in the TTM, which could impact future liquidity.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.71B4.09B3.77B3.96B3.49B
Gross Profit2.31B2.07B1.92B1.74B1.48B
EBITDA1.64B1.27B1.27B659.70M971.50M
Net Income1.10B764.90M761.40M235.00M529.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.31B7.79B7.49B7.00B6.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.25B1.03B600.70M524.40M379.00M
Total Debt1.68B1.60B1.61B1.87B1.43B
Total Liabilities4.17B3.51B3.50B3.53B3.21B
Stockholders Equity5.14B4.28B3.98B3.47B3.60B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00963.70M748.00M808.80M545.80M
Operating Cash Flow0.001.02B793.00M868.60M596.80M
Investing Cash Flow0.00-141.80M-55.10M-835.10M-352.70M
Financing Cash Flow0.00-495.00M-656.10M81.70M-200.30M

Cboe Global Markets Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price291.27
Price Trends
50DMA
265.61
Positive
100DMA
256.43
Positive
200DMA
245.10
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
6.67
Negative
RSI
71.34
Negative
STOCH
93.90
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CBOE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 291.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 275.62, above the 50-day MA of 265.61, and above the 200-day MA of 245.10, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.34 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.90 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CBOE.

Cboe Global Markets Risk Analysis

Cboe Global Markets disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cboe Global Markets reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Cboe Global Markets Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$115.04B28.1414.63%3.92%5.84%8.51%
76
Outperform
$40.32B34.981.24%9.02%3.45%
75
Outperform
$30.66B28.1223.25%1.06%16.74%26.74%
72
Outperform
$88.23B26.9511.72%1.19%8.96%30.16%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
67
Neutral
$124.98B28.5413.91%0.73%9.04%21.35%
65
Neutral
$46.11B26.2515.28%1.07%16.41%68.03%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CBOE
Cboe Global Markets
291.27
88.34
43.53%
CME
CME Group
307.36
64.01
26.30%
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange
160.33
-8.92
-5.27%
SPGI
S&P Global
423.61
-101.47
-19.32%
MSCI
MSCI
556.87
-14.86
-2.60%
NDAQ
Nasdaq
83.99
4.93
6.24%

Cboe Global Markets Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Cboe Global Markets Announces Major Leadership Reshuffle
Positive
Jan 26, 2026

On January 26, 2026, Cboe Global Markets announced a sweeping leadership reshuffle that will see long-serving Chief Operating Officer Chris Isaacson retire from his role effective March 6, 2026, after which he will remain with the company as an advisor and consultant through the end of 2026 under a retirement and consulting agreement governing his compensation and equity treatment. Scott Johnston, a veteran operations executive with more than four decades of experience at firms including Akuna Capital, Hudson River Trading, Citadel, Tower Research Capital, CME Group and UBS, will join Cboe on February 17, 2026 and is expected to assume the role of Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer on March 7, 2026, with a pay package comprising a $550,000 base salary, annual incentives, a long-term equity grant and sign-on awards. Alongside the COO succession, Cboe named Heidi Fischer as Executive Vice President, Global Head of Equities and Spot Markets to oversee its global cash equities and spot businesses, promoted Alex Dalley to lead European Equities (subject to regulatory approval), expanded Jon Weinberg’s remit to head global FX and off-exchange trading, and introduced a regional office leadership model across Kansas City, New York, London and Amsterdam—moves that collectively tighten the firm’s operational focus, deepen specialist leadership in key asset classes and support its globalization strategy at a time of intensifying competition in exchange and off-exchange market infrastructure.

The most recent analyst rating on (CBOE) stock is a Buy with a $304.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cboe Global Markets stock, see the CBOE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 27, 2026