MSCI (MSCI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $40.32B
• Dividend Yield: 1.24%
• Average Volume (3M): 705.26K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 35.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: 9.02%
• EPS Growth: 3.45%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,184
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges
• EPS (TTM): 4.66
• Shares Outstanding: 73,474,045
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 768,263
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 705,258
• PEG Ratio: 3.48
• Price to Book (P/B): -16.68
• Price to Sales (P/S): 14.12
• P/FCF Ratio: 28.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 15.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.43
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 24.87
• 1Y Price Target: $683.00
• Price Target Upside: 22.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 19.45
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.45B

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $608.00 ▲(9.18% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 01/29/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 01/29/26

The score is driven by strong profitability and cash generation plus a clearly positive technical uptrend. Offsetting these strengths are elevated balance-sheet risk (negative equity and higher debt) and a premium valuation, with earnings-call guidance pointing to near-term free-cash-flow headwinds despite solid underlying growth.

Positive Factors

Recurring subscription revenue & high retention

A large, growing recurring subscription base with very high index retention (~96%) and a >$3.3B run rate supports predictable revenue and margin durability. High renewal rates and expanding run-rate reduce revenue volatility and underpin cash generation over the next several quarters.

High margins and strong cash conversion

Consistently high gross and net margins combined with free cash flow that closely tracks earnings indicate durable operating leverage and cash-generation capacity. This strengthens ability to fund growth, buybacks, and product investment despite periodic expense lumpiness.

Product leadership & asset-based fee (ABF) growth

Rapid ABF expansion and record ETF inflows show structural demand for MSCI indexes and data. Coupled with analytics, PCS growth and AI-driven product innovation, this diversifies revenue sources and supports durable top-line expansion across market cycles.

Negative Factors

Negative shareholders' equity and rising debt

Persistently negative equity and materially higher debt reduce the firm's financial cushion and increase leverage-related risk. This limits flexibility for capital allocation and increases sensitivity to interest or operational shocks over the next several quarters.

Near-term free cash flow pressure

Material and identifiable 2026 cash outlays (higher taxes, incremental interest and CapEx) will compress free cash flow despite solid revenue growth. That reduces headroom for buybacks, debt paydown or discretionary investment in the upcoming 2–6 month planning horizon.

Regional/product retention softness

Weaker demand and pockets of cancellations in Sustainability, Real Assets and parts of EMEA threaten recurring revenue growth and could raise sales and retention costs. This may reduce operating leverage and slow net subscription growth in coming quarters.

MSCI Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MSCI Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides investment decision support tools for the clients to manage their investment processes worldwide. It operates through four segments: Index, Analytics, ESG and Climate, and All Other Private Assets. The Index segment provides indexes for use in various areas of the investment process, including indexed product creation, such as ETFs, mutual funds, annuities, futures, options, structured products, over-the-counter derivatives; performance benchmarking; portfolio construction and rebalancing; and asset allocation, as well as licenses GICS and GICS Direct. The Analytics segment offers risk management, performance attribution and portfolio management content, application, and service that provides an integrated view of risk and return, and an analysis of market, credit, liquidity, and counterparty risk across asset classes; managed services, including consolidation of client portfolio data from various sources, review and reconciliation of input data and results, and customized reporting; and HedgePlatform to measure, evaluate, and monitor the risk of hedge fund investments. The ESG and Climate segment provides products and services that help institutional investors understand how ESG factors impact the long-term risk and return of their portfolio and individual security-level investments; and data, ratings, research, and tools to help investors navigate increasing regulation. The All Other Private Assets segment includes real estate market and transaction data, benchmarks, return-analytics, climate assessments and market insights for funds, investors, and managers; business intelligence to real estate owners, managers, developers, and brokers; and offers investment decision support tools for private capital. It serves asset owners and managers, financial intermediaries, wealth managers, real estate professionals, and corporates. MSCI Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

MSCI generates revenue primarily through its subscription-based model, which consists of fees charged for access to its data, analytics, and indices. Key revenue streams include the sale of index licenses, analytics services, and ESG research and ratings. The company also earns revenue from custom solutions and consulting services tailored to specific client needs. Partnerships with financial institutions, investment managers, and other entities enhance MSCI's product offerings, while the increasing demand for ESG integration and risk management tools contributes to its earnings growth. Ongoing investments in technology and data capabilities further strengthen its competitive position in the market.

MSCI Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance is strong (high margins, steady revenue growth, and solid cash generation), but the balance sheet is a material risk with persistently negative equity and higher debt, reducing financial flexibility.

Income Statement

MSCI shows very strong profitability with consistently high gross margins (~82%) and a robust net margin (about 35%–45% historically; ~40% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)). Revenue has grown steadily from 2020–2024, and is still positive in TTM, supporting durable earnings power. The main watch-out is some margin compression versus 2023 (lower net and operating margins), suggesting incremental growth is coming with slightly less operating leverage.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet quality is the clear weak spot: stockholders’ equity is negative across all periods (and worsened to about -$2.65B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), which distorts leverage metrics and signals a thin equity cushion. Total debt has also risen meaningfully (to ~$6.41B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), increasing financial risk despite the company’s strong earnings profile. While this structure can be manageable for a high-margin, cash-generative business, it leaves less flexibility if operating conditions weaken.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a major strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow have grown over time, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow up strongly and remaining close to net income (free cash flow roughly matches reported earnings). Cash conversion has improved versus prior years, and operating cash flow now slightly exceeds net income in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), supporting the quality of earnings. The key risk is that higher debt levels can increase the call on cash over time.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.13B	2.86B	2.53B	2.25B	2.04B
Gross Profit	2.58B	2.34B	2.08B	1.84B	1.68B
EBITDA	1.93B	1.75B	1.71B	1.36B	1.15B
Net Income	1.20B	1.11B	1.15B	870.57M	725.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.70B	5.45B	5.52B	5.00B	5.51B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	515.33M	405.85M	457.81M	993.20M	1.42B
Total Debt	6.31B	4.66B	4.63B	4.64B	4.33B
Total Liabilities	8.36B	6.39B	6.26B	6.01B	5.67B
Stockholders Equity	-2.65B	-940.00M	-739.76M	-1.01B	-163.47M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.55B	1.47B	1.15B	1.02B	883.27M
Operating Cash Flow	1.59B	1.50B	1.24B	1.10B	936.07M
Investing Cash Flow	-130.06M	-144.25M	-819.38M	-79.33M	-1.04B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.36B	-1.40B	-953.93M	-1.43B	229.50M

MSCI Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 556.87
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MSCI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 556.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 556.87, below the 50-day MA of 569.05, and below the 200-day MA of 560.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -9.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.96 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MSCI.

MSCI Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MSCI	76 Outperform	$40.32B	34.98	―	1.24%	9.02%	3.45%
FDS	72 Outperform	$7.48B	12.82	28.83%	1.49%	5.88%	12.18%
MCO	71 Outperform	$80.24B	33.11	64.55%	0.73%	8.77%	13.62%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
SPGI	67 Neutral	$124.98B	28.54	13.91%	0.73%	9.04%	21.35%
NDAQ	65 Neutral	$46.11B	26.25	15.28%	1.07%	16.41%	68.03%
MORN	63 Neutral	$6.45B	18.38	26.35%	0.84%	7.76%	15.92%

MSCI Corporate Events

MSCI, BlackRock extend long-term equity index licensing pact

On January 27, 2026, MSCI Inc. and BlackRock Fund Advisors amended their existing master index license agreement for exchange-traded funds, extending its term to March 31, 2035, with automatic three-year renewals thereafter unless terminated in advance. Under the revised deal, MSCI will continue licensing selected MSCI equity indexes as the basis for BlackRock-managed ETFs, while the licensee will keep paying periodic fees tied to each fund’s assets under management and expense ratio; starting January 1, 2026, and further from January 1, 2027, fee schedules will be adjusted for certain funds in a way that varies with expense ratios and AUM, aiming to support long-term growth through a price–volume tradeoff without materially altering the overall fee structure. Separately, MSCI noted that on February 5, 2025, BlackRock reported to the SEC that as of December 31, 2024 it exercised investment discretion over 5,400,012 MSCI shares, representing 7.3% of the company’s outstanding common stock as of December 31, 2025, underscoring the depth of the commercial and investment relationship between the two firms.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSCI) stock is a Buy with a $671.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MSCI stock, see the MSCI Stock Forecast page.