MSCI Inc (MSCI)
NYSE:MSCI
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MSCI
(NYSE:MSCI)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$606.00
â–²(12.96% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:01/29/26
The score is driven by strong profitability and cash generation plus a clearly positive technical uptrend. Offsetting these strengths are elevated balance-sheet risk (negative equity and higher debt) and a premium valuation, with earnings-call guidance pointing to near-term free-cash-flow headwinds despite solid underlying growth.
Positive Factors
Recurring subscription revenue
MSCI’s high and growing recurring subscription run rate (> $2.4B, total run rate > $3.3B) supports multi-year revenue visibility and predictable cash flows. Durable contract structures and strong net new subscription sales reduce revenue volatility and underpin long-term customer stickiness and planning.
Negative Factors
Weak balance-sheet equity
Persistent negative shareholders’ equity and materially elevated debt (≈$6.4B) reduce financial flexibility and increase solvency risk under stress. A thin equity cushion limits absorptive capacity for shocks, constrains capital policy choices, and raises the stakes for consistent cash generation over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring subscription revenue
MSCI’s high and growing recurring subscription run rate (> $2.4B, total run rate > $3.3B) supports multi-year revenue visibility and predictable cash flows. Durable contract structures and strong net new subscription sales reduce revenue volatility and underpin long-term customer stickiness and planning.
Read all positive factors
MSCI (MSCI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$39.23B
Dividend Yield1.24%
Average Volume (3M)509.95K
Price to Earnings (P/E)36.8
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth9.02%
EPS Growth3.45%
CountryUS
Employees6,184
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.66
Shares Outstanding73,120,210
10 Day Avg. Volume399,319
30 Day Avg. Volume509,955
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.48
Price to Book (P/B)-16.68
Price to Sales (P/S)14.12
P/FCF Ratio28.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.50
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.60
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$678.75Price Target Upside26.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)19.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.45B
MSCI Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MSCI Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides investment decision support tools for the clients to manage their investment processes worldwide. It operates through four segments: Index, Analytics, ESG and Climate, and All Other Private Asset...
How the Company Makes Money
MSCI primarily makes money by selling subscriptions and licenses for financial indexes, data, analytics, and related services, with revenues largely recurring in nature.
Key revenue streams include:
1) Index revenue: MSCI licenses its indexes for...
MSCI Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Shows profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving earnings and where there might be inefficiencies or opportunities for improvement.
Shows profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving earnings and where there might be inefficiencies or opportunities for improvement.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMSCI Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a decidedly positive operational and financial momentum: strong organic revenue, EBITDA and EPS growth; record index inflows and ABF expansion; notable wins across client segments (especially Index, Analytics and PCS); and substantial share repurchases. Offsetting items include near-term free cash flow pressure from ~$100M higher cash taxes, a ~$90M step-up in cash interest, elevated CapEx for a new London office and some product/region-specific softness (notably Sustainability in the Americas and pockets of lower retention in EMEA and Real Assets). Management emphasized AI-driven efficiency and product innovation as material upside drivers. On balance, the strength and breadth of growth indicators and strategic initiatives materially outweigh the described near-term financial and regional headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Q4 and Full-Year Financial Growth
Organic revenue growth of >10% in Q4; adjusted EBITDA growth of >13% in Q4; adjusted EPS growth ~12% in Q4 and ~14% for the full year, continuing 11 consecutive years of double-digit adjusted EPS growth.
Negative Updates
Sustainability & Climate Demand Softness
New subscription sales in Sustainability and Climate were lower than last year with particular softness in the Americas; S&C retention showed pressure and the product line experienced volatile regional dynamics.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q4 and Full-Year Financial Growth
Organic revenue growth of >10% in Q4; adjusted EBITDA growth of >13% in Q4; adjusted EPS growth ~12% in Q4 and ~14% for the full year, continuing 11 consecutive years of double-digit adjusted EPS growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
MSCI's 2026 guidance highlights an increased near‑term tax and cash‑flow headwind — a Q1 tax rate of 18–20% and roughly $100 million of higher cash taxes in 2026 (including about $30M of 2025→2026 timing deferrals and roughly $50M of one‑time 2025 benefits) — plus a ~ $90M step‑up in cash interest from 2026 debt servicing and higher CapEx (including ~ $25M of London occupancy CapEx and additional software capitalization). Ending cash was > $515M at year‑end 2025 and the revolver was reduced by $125M to $175M (with modest future draws/repayments expected); free cash flow guidance reflects these items despite expected strong double‑digit collection growth and stable working capital. MSCI also disclosed an aggregate ETF fee‑floor reduction impact of ~0.1 basis points (≈0.05 bps on Jan 1 this year and ≈0.05 bps on Jan 1 next year) and reiterated firm‑wide long‑term targets of low double‑digit revenue growth (ex‑ABF), adjusted EBITDA expense growth of high single‑digit to low double‑digit, adjusted EBITDA growth of low‑to‑mid teens, with ABF expected to be an outsized double‑digit grower through cycles, while discontinuing product‑line specific long‑term targets.MSCI Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.13B | 2.86B | 2.53B | 2.25B | 2.04B |
| Gross Profit | 2.58B | 2.34B | 2.08B | 1.84B | 1.68B |
| EBITDA | 1.93B | 1.75B | 1.71B | 1.36B | 1.15B |
| Net Income | 1.20B | 1.11B | 1.15B | 870.57M | 725.98M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.70B | 5.45B | 5.52B | 5.00B | 5.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 515.33M | 405.85M | 457.81M | 993.20M | 1.42B |
| Total Debt | 6.31B | 4.66B | 4.63B | 4.64B | 4.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.36B | 6.39B | 6.26B | 6.01B | 5.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | -2.65B | -940.00M | -739.76M | -1.01B | -163.47M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.55B | 1.47B | 1.15B | 1.02B | 883.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.59B | 1.50B | 1.24B | 1.10B | 936.07M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -130.06M | -144.25M | -819.38M | -79.33M | -1.04B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.36B | -1.40B | -953.93M | -1.43B | 229.50M |
MSCI Technical Analysis
Negative
536.48
Price Trends
552.06
Negative
559.91
Negative
559.88
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.88
Negative
44.28
Neutral
53.65
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MSCI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 536.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 544.41, below the 50-day MA of 552.06, and below the 200-day MA of 559.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MSCI.
MSCI Risk Analysis
MSCI disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MSCI reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MSCI Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $7.71B | 15.04 | 27.22% | 1.49% | 5.88% | 12.18% | |
76 Outperform | $39.23B | 36.82 | -74.96% | 1.24% | 9.02% | 3.45% | |
71 Outperform | $75.78B | 37.25 | 62.81% | 0.73% | 8.77% | 13.62% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $124.13B | 35.63 | 13.62% | 0.73% | 9.04% | 21.35% | |
65 Neutral | $47.27B | 26.70 | 15.03% | 1.07% | 16.41% | 68.03% | |
61 Neutral | $6.65B | 24.33 | 25.12% | 0.84% | 7.76% | 15.92% |
* Financial Sector Average
MSCI
MSCI
536.48
-7.43
-1.37%
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MORN
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167.97
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NDAQ
Nasdaq
83.16
11.25
15.65%
MSCI Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
MSCI Announces Upcoming Change in Chief Accounting Leadership
Neutral
Mar 31, 2026
MSCI Inc. said that on March 27, 2026, C. Jack Read notified the company of his intention to resign as Global Controller and Chief Accounting Officer to pursue another opportunity, while remaining in his current role and as principal accounting of...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
MSCI, BlackRock extend long-term equity index licensing pact
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
On January 27, 2026, MSCI Inc. and BlackRock Fund Advisors amended their existing master index license agreement for exchange-traded funds, extending its term to March 31, 2035, with automatic three-year renewals thereafter unless terminated in ad...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.