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MSCI
(NYSE:MSCI)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$612.00
▲(11.11% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/22/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying business profitability and cash generation, reinforced by a largely positive earnings-call outlook in core franchises and improved free-cash-flow guidance. Offsetting these strengths are meaningful balance-sheet risk (negative equity and rising debt), a weak technical setup with the stock trading below key moving averages, and a premium valuation that limits upside without sustained growth and margin execution.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
MSCI's high and consistent free cash flow (≈$1.6B TTM) and near‑one‑to‑one cash conversion provide durable internal funding for buybacks, M&A, and product investment. Reliable FCF reduces dependency on external financing and supports capital returns and strategic flexibility over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Negative Shareholders' Equity
Persistent negative equity and a rising debt load materially increase financial risk and limit balance‑sheet flexibility. Higher leverage raises interest exposure, constrains optionality for large investments, and magnifies downside in a revenue slowdown over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
MSCI's high and consistent free cash flow (≈$1.6B TTM) and near‑one‑to‑one cash conversion provide durable internal funding for buybacks, M&A, and product investment. Reliable FCF reduces dependency on external financing and supports capital returns and strategic flexibility over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
MSCI Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Shows profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving earnings and where there might be inefficiencies or opportunities for improvement.
Shows profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving earnings and where there might be inefficiencies or opportunities for improvement.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMSCI (MSCI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$41.60B
Dividend Yield1.35%
Average Volume (3M)765.03K
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.5
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth11.62%
EPS Growth21.00%
CountryUS
Employees6,268
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)18.18
Shares Outstanding72,700,000
10 Day Avg. Volume904,768
30 Day Avg. Volume765,030
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.48
Price to Book (P/B)-16.68
Price to Sales (P/S)14.12
P/FCF Ratio28.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$699.50Price Target Upside27.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)19.71
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.51B
MSCI Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MSCI Inc., alongside its subsidiaries, offers sophisticated tools and services to support global investment decision-making and process management for its clients. The company is structured into four key segments: Index, Analytics, ESG and Climate...
How the Company Makes Money
MSCI primarily makes money by licensing data, indexes, and analytics on a recurring subscription basis to financial institutions. A major revenue stream is its Index segment: MSCI licenses its equity and other indexes to asset managers and product...
MSCI Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong momentum across MSCI's index, ABF, hedge fund/trader, and private assets franchises with double-digit organic growth, record AUM and substantial new-product and AI-driven pipeline. Challenges were highlighted primarily in the sustainability reporting segment, some fee compression from mix shift, and near-term expense and margin headwinds driven by acquisitions and comp accruals. Overall, the positive growth drivers, record AUM, accelerating run rates, and sizable new-product traction materially outweigh the cited challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line and Profitability Growth
Organic revenue growth of over 12% in Q2; adjusted EPS grew nearly 19%; adjusted EBITDA grew 14%, demonstrating profitable, high-quality growth.
Negative Updates
Sustainability Segment Weakness and Cancellations
Sustainability faces persisting market challenges with notable cancels—particularly in the Americas—as clients 'rightsize' sustainability spend; Q2 new recurring sales: nearly $6 million in sustainability and over $3 million in climate, but management expects recurring net new sales for combined sustainability & climate reporting to be roughly zero to slightly negative over the next two quarters.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line and Profitability Growth
Organic revenue growth of over 12% in Q2; adjusted EPS grew nearly 19%; adjusted EBITDA grew 14%, demonstrating profitable, high-quality growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On guidance, management said they are moving toward the high end of prior expense guidance ranges driven by recent acquisitions (notably First Street), higher D&A and higher interest expense from increased revolver balances, and elevated performance stock‑based comp and bonus accruals tied to AUM/product growth; First Street is expected to add about $10 million of subscription run rate to the Sustainability & Climate segment upon close in Q3, while recurring net new sales for the combined sustainability and climate reporting segment are expected to be roughly zero to slightly negative over the next two quarters. They also noted flexibility to “flex” investments up or expenses down, reiterated their commitment to profitability and capital returns (including $147 million of share repurchases at an average price of about $558/share in the quarter), and said free cash flow guidance was raised on stronger collections despite higher cash taxes and comp.MSCI Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.33B | 3.13B | 2.86B | 2.53B | 2.25B | 2.04B |
| Gross Profit | 2.77B | 2.58B | 2.34B | 2.08B | 1.84B | 1.68B |
| EBITDA | 2.05B | 1.93B | 1.75B | 1.71B | 1.36B | 1.15B |
| Net Income | 1.36B | 1.20B | 1.11B | 1.15B | 870.57M | 725.98M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.60B | 5.70B | 5.45B | 5.52B | 5.00B | 5.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 356.40M | 515.33M | 405.85M | 457.81M | 993.20M | 1.42B |
| Total Debt | 6.52B | 6.34B | 4.66B | 4.63B | 4.64B | 4.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.29B | 8.36B | 6.39B | 6.26B | 6.01B | 5.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | -2.69B | -2.65B | -940.00M | -739.76M | -1.01B | -163.47M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.60B | 1.55B | 1.47B | 1.15B | 1.02B | 883.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.63B | 1.59B | 1.50B | 1.24B | 1.10B | 936.07M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -194.60M | -130.06M | -144.25M | -819.38M | -79.33M | -1.04B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.59B | -1.36B | -1.40B | -953.93M | -1.43B | 229.50M |
MSCI Technical Analysis
Negative
550.79
Price Trends
595.09
Negative
579.20
Negative
570.25
Positive
Market Momentum
-6.58
Positive
44.54
Neutral
58.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MSCI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 550.79 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 591.00, below the 50-day MA of 595.09, and below the 200-day MA of 570.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -6.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MSCI.
MSCI Risk Analysis
MSCI disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MSCI reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MSCI Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $121.44B | 25.07 | 14.80% | 0.86% | 9.67% | 26.18% | |
79 Outperform | $7.22B | 18.15 | 35.29% | 1.13% | 9.33% | 12.16% | |
78 Outperform | $82.86B | 30.26 | 79.69% | 0.84% | 11.67% | 33.94% | |
77 Outperform | $52.65B | 27.14 | 16.31% | 1.22% | 7.35% | 31.93% | |
75 Outperform | $9.36B | 17.24 | 26.58% | 1.75% | 6.62% | 8.75% | |
68 Neutral | $41.60B | 31.48 | -54.14% | 1.40% | 11.62% | 21.00% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
MSCI
MSCI
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5.68%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.