Atmos Energy Corp. (ATO)
NYSE:ATO
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Atmos Energy
(NYSE:ATO)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$201.00
â–²(5.98% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/30/26
The score is driven primarily by solid profitability and constructive earnings-call guidance/liquidity positioning. The main constraint is financial flexibility: free cash flow remains deeply negative due to heavy capex, increasing reliance on external funding. Technicals are moderately supportive and valuation is reasonable, providing secondary support.
Positive Factors
Regulated business model
Atmos operates a rate‑regulated distribution and midstream business where allowed returns are set by regulators and commodity costs are largely passed through. This creates predictable cash flows and the ability to grow earnings via rate base expansion from sustained capex programs.
Negative Factors
Consistently negative free cash flow
Sustained negative FCF reflects heavy, ongoing capital intensity to modernize and expand networks. That structural cash consumption necessitates continual external funding, raising reliance on capital markets and exposing the company to higher financing costs or constrained flexibility if conditions tighten.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated business model
Atmos operates a rate‑regulated distribution and midstream business where allowed returns are set by regulators and commodity costs are largely passed through. This creates predictable cash flows and the ability to grow earnings via rate base expansion from sustained capex programs.
Read all positive factors
Atmos Energy (ATO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$31.38B
Dividend Yield2.15%
Average Volume (3M)1.10M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.9
Beta (1Y)0.14
Revenue Growth12.91%
EPS Growth9.86%
CountryUS
Employees5,260
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.44
Shares Outstanding165,438,950
10 Day Avg. Volume673,380
30 Day Avg. Volume1,103,450
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.18
Price to Book (P/B)2.00
Price to Sales (P/S)5.77
P/FCF Ratio-17.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.31
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.91
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$188.17Price Target Upside-0.79% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)8.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.34B
Atmos Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Atmos Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the regulated natural gas distribution, and pipeline and storage businesses in the United States. It operates through two segments, Distribution, and Pipeline and Storage. The Di...
How the Company Makes Money
Atmos Energy makes money primarily through regulated utility rates and regulated pipeline tariffs. (1) Regulated natural gas distribution: The company earns revenue by delivering natural gas to customers in its service territories. Customer bills ...
Atmos Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: year-over-year EPS growth (+9.4%), strong customer additions, major pipeline and storage capacity upgrades, robust liquidity and financing execution, and on-track guidance/capex program. Offsetting items include rising O&M costs (+$23M), some short-term volume impacts from maintenance (~2 Bcf at APT), timing uncertainty around the deferral benefits from Texas House Bill 4384, and localized regulatory uncertainty (Mississippi). Overall, the positives (growth, project progress, liquidity, guidance) outweigh the manageable operational and regulatory headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Earnings and EPS Growth
Reported fiscal Q1 net income of $403 million, or $2.44 per diluted share, representing a 9.4% increase in diluted EPS versus the prior year quarter.
Negative Updates
Higher O&M Costs
Consolidated operating & maintenance expense increased by $23 million in the quarter, including a $12 million increase in compliance and safety-related spending (more leak survey work and maintenance timing) and approximately $5 million of higher employee-related costs (increased headcount, overtime and standby).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Earnings and EPS Growth
Reported fiscal Q1 net income of $403 million, or $2.44 per diluted share, representing a 9.4% increase in diluted EPS versus the prior year quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed rebased fiscal 2026 guidance of $8.15–$8.35 EPS and a rebased annual dividend of $4.00 (targeting dividend growth in line with EPS growth of 6–8% annually); the company said it is on track to achieve that guidance and its $4.2 billion FY26 capital plan. In Q1 Atmos reported net income of $403 million, or $2.44 diluted EPS (up 9.4% YoY), with Q1 capex of $1.0 billion (over 85% on safety/reliability) and a $35 million ($0.16) benefit from Texas HB 4384 ($20M Distribution, $15M APT). Other notable metrics: implemented $123 million of annualized distribution OI increases, five filings seeking ~$81 million more and an additional planned filing for ~ $400 million annualized; APT through-system revenue net of Rider REV rose ≈$7M while volumes declined ~2 Bcf and spreads averaged $3.99 vs $1.56 LY; completed >$1B of long-term financing (including $600M debt in Oct‑2025), settled $472M in equity forwards, equity capitalization 60%, and $4.6B available liquidity (including ≈$1.1B net forward sale proceeds to cover FY26/FY27 equity needs).Atmos Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.87B | 4.70B | 4.17B | 4.28B | 4.20B | 3.41B |
| Gross Profit | 2.54B | 2.46B | 2.41B | 2.06B | 1.81B | 1.70B |
| EBITDA | 2.43B | 2.38B | 2.10B | 1.74B | 1.49B | 1.38B |
| Net Income | 1.25B | 1.20B | 1.04B | 885.32M | 774.40M | 665.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 29.80B | 28.91B | 25.19B | 22.52B | 22.19B | 19.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 371.51M | 203.80M | 307.34M | 15.40M | 51.55M | 116.72M |
| Total Debt | 9.63B | 9.30B | 8.13B | 7.12B | 8.37B | 7.56B |
| Total Liabilities | 15.52B | 15.35B | 13.04B | 11.65B | 12.77B | 11.70B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.28B | 13.56B | 12.16B | 10.87B | 9.42B | 7.91B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.63B | -1.51B | -1.20B | 653.77M | -1.47B | -3.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.08B | 2.05B | 1.73B | 3.46B | 977.58M | -1.08B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.71B | -3.56B | -2.92B | -2.80B | -2.43B | -1.96B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.41B | 1.41B | 1.48B | -696.77M | 1.39B | 3.14B |
Atmos Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
189.66
Price Trends
180.37
Positive
174.66
Positive
168.76
Positive
Market Momentum
1.92
Negative
66.82
Neutral
86.86
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ATO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 189.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 185.30, above the 50-day MA of 180.37, and above the 200-day MA of 168.76, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.92 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.86 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ATO.
Atmos Energy Risk Analysis
Atmos Energy disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Atmos Energy reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Atmos Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $5.63B | 17.59 | 8.13% | 3.45% | 15.06% | 12.27% | |
70 Outperform | $6.57B | 21.17 | 11.62% | 3.07% | -23.15% | 157.45% | |
69 Neutral | $31.38B | 16.92 | 9.20% | 2.15% | 12.91% | 9.86% | |
67 Neutral | $23.02B | 21.25 | 10.23% | 2.69% | 19.62% | 12.87% | |
66 Neutral | $5.76B | 9.48 | 13.39% | 4.01% | 13.94% | 13.93% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $8.11B | 6.77 | 12.21% | 3.92% | 1.10% | 140.04% |
* Utilities Sector Average
ATO
Atmos Energy
189.66
43.62
29.87%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
57.08
11.30
24.69%
NI
Nisource
48.10
11.11
30.04%
SWX
Southwest Gas
90.92
23.57
35.00%
UGI
UGI
37.79
8.08
27.20%
OGS
ONE Gas
89.83
18.24
25.47%
Atmos Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Atmos Energy Extends Revolving Credit Facilities, Boosting Liquidity
Positive
Mar 30, 2026
On March 28, 2024, Atmos Energy Corporation entered into a three-year revolving credit agreement with Crédit Agricole and a syndicate of lenders, providing a $1.5 billion senior unsecured revolving credit facility. Under an extension feature ...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Atmos Energy Shareholders Approve Charter and Governance Changes
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
At its February 4, 2026 annual meeting, Atmos Energy shareholders approved a series of amendments to the company’s charters in Texas and Virginia, including increasing authorized common shares to 400 million, adopting plurality voting in con...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.