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Nisource (NI)
NYSE:NI
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Nisource
(NYSE:NI)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$48.00
â–²(1.48% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/12/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial fundamentals—stable profitability and improving revenue trends, but persistent negative free cash flow and elevated/rising leverage. Offsetting this, technicals are constructive and the earnings call was broadly positive with reaffirmed growth guidance and improving credit metrics, though valuation remains relatively high for the utility profile and near-term execution/regulatory approvals are meaningful risks.
Positive Factors
Large capital plan & data center pipeline
NiSource’s $28B five‑year plan, including nearly $7B targeted at data center infrastructure and a 1–3 GW active pipeline, meaningfully expands regulated rate base and secures long‑duration load. If executed, this provides durable EPS and rate‑base growth that supports long‑term earnings and utility scale.
Re‑accelerating revenue with stable margins
Revenue re‑acceleration alongside steady net margins (~13–14%) reflects regulated rate recovery and improved demand/contract contributions. This consistency supports predictable cash flows and dividend capacity over the medium term, providing a reliable earnings base despite heavy capital investment.
Improving credit metrics and liquidity
FFO-to-debt at 16.1% (above the 14%–16% target) indicates stronger internal cash generation versus obligations, improving credit profile. Along with expanded credit capacity, this enhances financing flexibility to support the large capex program and reduces near‑term refinancing pressure.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative free cash flow
Consistent negative free cash flow means operating cash doesn't cover required capex, forcing reliance on external financing. Over 2–6 months this restricts flexibility, can increase dilution or leverage via planned ATM equity and debt, and raises vulnerability to higher financing costs during large project builds.
Rising leverage
Elevated debt-to-equity and meaningful debt growth in 2025 reduce financial headroom. Higher leverage increases interest expense sensitivity and limits capacity to absorb regulatory passbacks or cost overruns, constraining optionality on additional growth or shareholder returns without further funding.
Regulatory and execution dependence for Genco
The Genco project and Amazon contract drive multi‑billion capex and projected earnings but hinge on IURC approval. Regulatory delay, adverse terms, or construction/financing setbacks would materially affect timing of rate‑base additions, expected customer returns and financing plans, increasing execution risk.
Nisource (NI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.63B
Dividend Yield2.69%
Average Volume (3M)4.45M
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.2
Beta (1Y)0.32
Revenue Growth19.62%
EPS Growth12.87%
CountryUS
Employees7,687
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.51
Shares Outstanding478,533,170
10 Day Avg. Volume3,697,560
30 Day Avg. Volume4,446,044
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.05
Price to Book (P/B)2.09
Price to Sales (P/S)2.97
P/FCF Ratio-47.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.71
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.83
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.83
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$47.49Price Target Upside0.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)2.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.63B
Nisource Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNiSource Inc., an energy holding company, operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility company in the United States. It operates through two segments, Gas Distribution Operations and Electric Operations. The company distributes natural gas to approximately 853,000 customers in northern Indiana, as well as approximately 2.4 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, and Maryland. It operates approximately 54,600 miles of distribution main pipelines, as well as associated individual customer service lines; and 1,000 miles of transmission main pipelines. The company generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to approximately 483,000 customers in 20 counties in the northern part of Indiana, as well as engages in wholesale electric and transmission transactions. It owns and operates coal-fired electric generating stations with a capacity of 722 megawatts (MW) in Wheatfield and 455 MW in Michigan City; combined cycle gas turbine with a capacity of 563 MW in West Terre Haute; natural gas generating units with a capacity of 155 MW in Wheatfield; hydro generating plants with a capacity of 9 MW in Carroll County and 7 MW in White County; and wind generating units with a capacity of 102 MW and 302 MW in White County, Indiana. The company was formerly known as NIPSCO Industries, Inc. and changed its name to NiSource Inc. in April 1999. NiSource Inc. was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Merrillville, Indiana.
How the Company Makes MoneyNiSource generates revenue primarily through the provision of utility services, including the distribution of natural gas and electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company operates under a regulated framework, which allows it to earn a return on investment by adjusting rates based on approved capital expenditures and operating costs. Key revenue streams include customer utility bills, which consist of charges for energy consumption, delivery fees, and other service-related charges. Additionally, NiSource may engage in infrastructure projects that enhance its service capabilities, leading to potential revenue growth. The company is also involved in partnerships focused on renewable energy initiatives, which can contribute to long-term revenue diversification and sustainability goals.
Nisource Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Revenues by Segment
Breaks down revenue from various segments, indicating where the company is generating the most sales and potential growth opportunities.
Breaks down revenue from various segments, indicating where the company is generating the most sales and potential growth opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNisource Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple clear operational and financial strengths — stronger-than-expected 2025 results (adjusted EPS up vs. prior year), a solid balance-sheet metric (FFO to debt of 16.1%), a large and advancing capital plan including a transformative Amazon/Genco opportunity, sizable data center and economic-development pipelines, and continued regulatory progress in key jurisdictions. Key risks highlighted were dependence on pending regulatory approvals (IURC decision for the Amazon special contract), construction and financing execution risk for Genco, weather-driven timing effects and regulatory passbacks, rising operating and interest expenses, and ongoing regulatory uncertainty (federal orders and evolving EPA/MISO rules). On balance, the positive operational execution and financial outperformance, the scale of the pipeline (data centers, Amazon/Genco), and improved credit metrics outweigh the execution and regulatory risks called out on the call.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Amazon (Genco) Agreement and Customer Value Return
Executed agreement with Amazon expected to return approximately $1.0 billion to NIPSCO customers (estimated $7–$9 per customer per month upon full ramp). Genco represents $6–$7 billion of capital through 2032 and is expected to begin contributing 1–2¢ to consolidated EPS in 2026.
Strong Earnings Performance
Reported full-year 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.90 versus $1.70 in 2024 (an increase of ~11.8% based on reported figures). Fourth-quarter adjusted EPS was $0.51 versus $0.49 a year ago (up ~4.1%).
Reaffirmed 2026 Guidance
Reaffirmed consolidated adjusted EPS guidance for 2026 of $2.02–$2.07 (company cites ~8% year‑over‑year growth versus 2025). Genco expected to add incremental 1–2¢ as it ramps.
Balance Sheet and Cash-Flow Metrics
FFO to debt finished 2025 at 16.1%, up ~150 basis points and above the company's 14%–16% target range, driven by strong internally generated cash flow and favorable weather receipts.
Material Capital Investment Plan
Targeting approximately $28 billion of investment over the next five years (Shawn highlighted $21 billion base utility investment; Amazon/Genco accounts for the majority of the remainder). Company retains ~$2 billion of identified upside capital opportunities.
Operational and Safety Execution
Maintained ISO 55001 and API 1173 certifications; installed over 545,000 smart meters; surveyed more than 41,000 miles of pipeline with advanced mobile leak detection—both metrics exceeded stated targets. Limited customer outages during a severe winter storm by leveraging storage assets that serve ~75% of load at below-market prices.
Data Center and Economic Development Pipeline
Robust data center pipeline with ~1–3 GW in active strategic negotiations and up to an additional ~3 GW of developing opportunities; about two dozen active data center projects and >40 data center inquiries in Virginia. Indiana economic development supported >140 active projects in 2025.
Shareholder Returns
Board approved a 7.1% dividend increase for 2026 versus 2025 and reiterated a target dividend payout ratio of 55%–65%.
Regulatory Wins and Protections
Secured Pennsylvania rate case approval (incremental revenue of ~$55 million and a 10% ROE noted in commentary). Ohio enacted supportive utility legislation expected to reduce regulatory lag and improve rate-making mechanics.
Negative Updates
Dependence on Pending Regulatory Approval (IURC) for Amazon Special Contract
Amazon special contract for the Genco project is pending before the IURC with a decision expected in H1 2026. The timing and outcome are material to ramp timing, capital allocation and near-term earnings visibility.
Construction and Financing Risk for Genco
Company noted that Genco outcomes are sensitive to construction timelines and financing costs; slower construction or higher financing costs could reduce the earnings contribution versus plan—guidance contains a range to reflect these risks.
Weather Volatility and Regulatory Timing Effects
Significant weather effects impacted Q4 and were noted as contributing roughly 70 basis points to FFO-to-debt dynamics for the year. Some timing-related impacts are expected to be passed back to customers in 2026 via regulatory mechanisms, creating short-term volatility.
Rising Operating and Interest Expense
Management acknowledged increases in operating and interest expenses that partially offset financial performance despite overall outperformance for the year.
Regulatory and Policy Uncertainty
Ongoing federal and regional developments (e.g., EPA reliability rules, MISO accreditation changes, and federal orders requiring continued operation of Shaker coal plant) introduce regulatory uncertainty, potential compliance costs, and planning complexity.
Modest Customer Growth and Conservative Forecasting
Management is assuming modest customer growth of under 1% across customer classes in the plan horizon, limiting organic rate-base growth absent economic development or large load additions that are not yet incorporated into base forecasts (e.g., Ohio upside not yet included).
Timing and Disclosure of Genco Financials
Genco is expected to be reported as a distinct segment as it becomes more material, but detailed segment disclosure timing and scope were not finalized—some investors may face near-term modeling uncertainty.
Company Guidance
NiSource reaffirmed 2026 consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02–$2.07 (about 8% YoY vs. 2025’s $1.90), with base business guidance of $2.01–$2.05 (6%–8% growth) and Genco expected to add $0.01–$0.02 in 2026; management targets an 8%–9% EPS CAGR and a 9%–11% consolidated rate-base CAGR through 2033. The company plans roughly $28 billion of investment over the next five years (including $21 billion of base utility CapEx, the Amazon/Genco project of $6–7 billion through 2032 with most in the five‑year window, and about $2 billion of upside CapEx), aims to keep O&M flat, target average annual bill increases below 5%, and assumes modest customer growth of <1%. Financial priorities include maintaining FFO-to-debt of 14%–16% (2025 actual 16.1%, +150 bps), funding via operating cash flow, long‑term debt and $300M–$500M/year ATM equity, retaining Genco financing flexibility (minority equity/project debt), and delivering a ~7.1% dividend increase for 2026 with a 55%–65% payout ratio; the data‑center pipeline includes 1–3 GW in active negotiations and up to 3 GW of additional opportunities.Nisource Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income statement trends are improving (re-accelerating revenue and steady net margins), but the overall profile is constrained by persistently negative free cash flow and rising leverage—suggesting ongoing reliance on external financing despite improved operating cash flow.Income Statement
Revenue has re-accelerated, rising ~5% in 2025 after being roughly flat-to-down in 2023–2024, and profitability has remained steady with net margins consistently around ~13–14% since 2021 (following a small loss in 2020). Gross profit margin has improved sharply in 2025 versus prior years, supporting earnings momentum. Offsetting this, operating profitability looks uneven across years (including an apparent inconsistency in 2025 operating margin data versus operating profit), which reduces confidence in the quality/consistency of the margin picture.76
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is leveraged, with debt-to-equity generally in the ~1.4–1.7x range and total debt increasing meaningfully in 2025 versus 2024. Equity has grown over time and returns on equity have been stable in the high-single to ~10% range in recent years, indicating reasonable profitability for a regulated utility profile. The key weakness is the steadily high leverage level (and rising debt in the latest year), which can limit financial flexibility.64
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow improved in 2025 versus 2024, but free cash flow has been consistently negative every year shown (including a still-negative 2025 result), indicating ongoing cash needs after capital spending. Cash generation relative to earnings is mixed: operating cash flow covers only a modest portion of net income in most years, and free cash flow is negative relative to net income throughout the period. The combination of negative free cash flow and rising debt points to continued reliance on external funding.46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.64B | 5.46B | 5.51B | 5.85B | 4.90B |
| Gross Profit | 3.89B | 2.81B | 2.48B | 2.25B | 2.05B |
| EBITDA | 3.00B | 2.57B | 2.22B | 2.15B | 1.80B |
| Net Income | 929.50M | 760.40M | 714.30M | 804.10M | 584.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 36.55B | 31.79B | 31.08B | 26.74B | 24.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 135.70M | 156.60M | 2.25B | 40.80M | 84.20M |
| Total Debt | 16.24B | 13.96B | 14.13B | 11.53B | 9.99B |
| Total Liabilities | 24.89B | 21.12B | 20.94B | 18.83B | 16.88B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.45B | 8.68B | 8.27B | 7.58B | 6.95B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -420.00M | -861.50M | -710.70M | -793.70M | -620.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.36B | 1.78B | 1.94B | 1.41B | 1.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.29B | -3.21B | -3.57B | -2.57B | -2.20B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.87B | -651.00M | 3.84B | 1.14B | 956.30M |
Nisource Technical Analysis
Positive
47.30
Price Trends
43.46
Positive
42.99
Positive
41.54
Positive
Market Momentum
0.96
Negative
72.03
Negative
86.72
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 47.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.32, above the 50-day MA of 43.46, and above the 200-day MA of 41.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.03 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.72 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NI.
Nisource Risk Analysis
Nisource disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nisource reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nisource Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $6.37B | 14.50 | 4.76% | 3.07% | -23.15% | 157.45% | |
67 Neutral | $22.63B | 24.21 | 10.22% | 2.69% | 19.62% | 12.87% | |
67 Neutral | $30.90B | 24.31 | 9.23% | 2.15% | 12.91% | 9.86% | |
66 Neutral | $5.47B | 16.78 | 13.66% | 4.01% | 13.94% | 13.93% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $8.03B | 13.80 | 12.52% | 3.92% | 1.10% | 140.04% | |
64 Neutral | $5.41B | 19.89 | 8.46% | 3.82% | -4.50% | 2.49% |
* Utilities Sector Average
NI
Nisource
47.30
7.18
17.89%
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186.79
36.50
24.29%
SR
Spire
91.61
16.75
22.38%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
54.24
7.01
14.83%
SWX
Southwest Gas
88.17
14.72
20.04%
UGI
UGI
37.41
4.83
14.84%
Nisource Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
NiSource Expands Credit Facility by $650 Million
Neutral
Dec 11, 2025
On December 11, 2025, NiSource Inc. entered into a Seventh Amended and Restated Revolving Credit Agreement, increasing its credit facility by $650 million to $2.5 billion and extending the termination date to December 11, 2030. The agreement also raised the amount available for standby letters of credit and adjusted certain financial thresholds, while eliminating provisions related to environmental, social, and governance targets, potentially impacting NiSource’s financial flexibility and strategic initiatives.
The most recent analyst rating on (NI) stock is a Hold with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nisource stock, see the NI Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.