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Nisource
(NYSE:NI)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$46.00
â–²(0.41% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
NI scores moderately due to strong underlying regulated-utility profitability and supportive long-term guidance/data-center growth catalysts, but the overall rating is held back by persistently negative free cash flow and elevated leverage (implying ongoing external funding needs). Weak technical momentum further pressures the near-term setup, while valuation is only average for the risk/financing profile.
Positive Factors
Regulated profitability
NiSource's above-average regulated margins reflect durable, rate‑based earnings where state commissions permit recovery of prudently incurred costs plus a return on invested capital. That structural regulatory model supports steady cash flow generation and earnings resilience across multi-year capital cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Debt has risen materially over recent years, leaving leverage elevated for the sector. Higher indebtedness limits financial flexibility, increases interest obligations and forces ongoing access to capital markets or equity issuance to fund the heavy five‑year capex plan, amplifying financing risk if rates or credit conditions tighten.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated profitability
NiSource's above-average regulated margins reflect durable, rate‑based earnings where state commissions permit recovery of prudently incurred costs plus a return on invested capital. That structural regulatory model supports steady cash flow generation and earnings resilience across multi-year capital cycles.
Read all positive factors
Nisource Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Revenues by Segment
Breaks down revenue from various segments, indicating where the company is generating the most sales and potential growth opportunities.
Breaks down revenue from various segments, indicating where the company is generating the most sales and potential growth opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNisource (NI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$20.04B
Dividend Yield2.81%
Average Volume (3M)4.69M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.1
Beta (1Y)0.27
Revenue Growth12.25%
EPS Growth0.39%
CountryUS
Employees7,703
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.90
Shares Outstanding479,560,100
10 Day Avg. Volume4,947,760
30 Day Avg. Volume4,688,366
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.05
Price to Book (P/B)2.09
Price to Sales (P/S)2.97
P/FCF Ratio-47.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$50.38Price Target Upside9.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)2.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.06B
Nisource Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NiSource Inc., an energy holding company, operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Columbia Operations and NIPSCO Operations. The company provides natural gas to residentia...
How the Company Makes Money
NiSource makes money primarily through regulated utility operations. Its core revenue streams come from (1) natural gas distribution: charging customers for the delivery of natural gas through its local distribution systems, and (2) electric utili...
Nisource Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced notable long-term growth and regulatory wins—particularly around the GenCo/data center strategy, $1.4 billion of customer bill relief, a robust 9 GW pipeline, and reaffirmed multi-year financial targets—against near-term pressures including a significant Q2 EPS decline (≈27%), elevated O&M from storm and labor-related costs, and a recent Indiana regulatory order introducing recovery uncertainty. Management conveyed confidence in execution, multiple recovery pathways, and meaningful second-half tailwinds, resulting in more positives than negatives but with material short-term risks.Positive Updates
Year-to-Date EPS Improvement
Consolidated year-to-date adjusted EPS was $1.22, up $0.03 versus the prior year (≈+2.5%), reflecting revenue from new rates and recovery mechanisms implemented at NIPSCO Electric and Columbia Gas operations.
Negative Updates
Quarterly EPS Decline
Q2 consolidated adjusted EPS was $0.16 versus $0.22 in Q2 last year, a decline of $0.06 (≈-27.3%), driven by higher O&M and typical seasonal 'shoulder' quarter dynamics.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Year-to-Date EPS Improvement
Consolidated year-to-date adjusted EPS was $1.22, up $0.03 versus the prior year (≈+2.5%), reflecting revenue from new rates and recovery mechanisms implemented at NIPSCO Electric and Columbia Gas operations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
NiSource reaffirmed 2026 consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02–$2.07 per share (Q2 adjusted EPS $0.16 vs. $0.22 a year ago; YTD adjusted EPS $1.22, up $0.03 YOY) and said earnings will be more weighted to the second half, while reiterating annual base-plan adjusted EPS growth of 6%–8% through 2030 and a consolidated adjusted EPS CAGR of 9%–10% from 2026–2033; rate base growth targets remain 8%–10% (base plan) through 2030 and 9%–11% consolidated from 2026–2033. The five-year capital outlook is $21 billion of base business investment, $2 billion of upside and $7.6 billion of GenCo capex, with a pipeline of roughly 9 GW of data-center opportunities (4 GW signed, ~3 GW in active strategic negotiations, ~2 GW line‑of‑sight and potential to expand), an Amazon amendment adding 400 MW already in near‑ and long‑term guidance, GenCo savings of ~$1.4 billion to customers (≈up to $124/year per average residential NIPSCO customer) starting as early as Q4, line of sight to >$40 million of cost optimizations, and a financing plan targeting FFO/debt of 14%–16% with annual equity issuance of ~$400–$600 million.Nisource Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.88B | 6.64B | 5.46B | 5.51B | 5.85B | 4.90B |
| Gross Profit | 3.49B | 3.35B | 2.81B | 2.48B | 2.25B | 2.05B |
| EBITDA | 3.20B | 3.05B | 2.57B | 2.22B | 2.15B | 1.80B |
| Net Income | 905.10M | 929.50M | 760.40M | 714.30M | 804.10M | 584.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 37.54B | 36.55B | 31.79B | 31.08B | 26.74B | 24.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 70.00M | 135.70M | 156.60M | 2.25B | 40.80M | 84.20M |
| Total Debt | 17.57B | 16.24B | 13.96B | 14.13B | 11.53B | 9.99B |
| Total Liabilities | 25.64B | 24.89B | 21.12B | 20.94B | 18.83B | 16.88B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.57B | 9.45B | 8.68B | 8.27B | 7.58B | 6.95B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.09B | -420.00M | -861.50M | -710.70M | -793.70M | -620.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.30B | 2.36B | 1.78B | 1.94B | 1.41B | 1.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.93B | -4.29B | -3.21B | -3.57B | -2.57B | -2.20B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.36B | 1.87B | -651.00M | 3.84B | 1.14B | 956.30M |
Nisource Technical Analysis
Negative
45.81
Price Trends
45.85
Negative
46.29
Negative
44.63
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.07
Positive
29.91
Positive
10.62
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 45.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.63, below the 50-day MA of 45.85, and above the 200-day MA of 44.63, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.91 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.62 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NI.
Nisource Risk Analysis
Nisource disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nisource reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nisource Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $28.38B | 19.93 | 9.67% | 2.16% | 6.45% | 15.84% | |
69 Neutral | $5.45B | 14.76 | 14.42% | 3.16% | 7.08% | -11.82% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $6.56B | 12.75 | 12.89% | 2.69% | -63.47% | 166.76% | |
62 Neutral | $7.29B | 11.27 | 13.15% | 4.07% | -0.50% | 60.66% | |
58 Neutral | $20.04B | 22.11 | 9.58% | 2.53% | 12.25% | 0.39% | |
55 Neutral | $4.79B | 9.17 | 21.42% | 3.95% | 4.12% | 93.82% |
* Utilities Sector Average
NI
Nisource
42.01
0.75
1.83%
ATO
Atmos Energy
169.21
6.20
3.80%
SR
Spire
82.45
8.67
11.75%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
54.74
8.96
19.56%
SWX
Southwest Gas
91.51
14.13
18.26%
UGI
UGI
35.16
1.36
4.01%
Nisource Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
NiSource Issues New Senior Notes to Fund Growth
Positive
May 18, 2026
On May 11, 2026, NiSource Inc. entered into a terms agreement with a syndicate of underwriters to issue $500 million of 4.750% senior notes due 2031 and $750 million of 5.300% senior notes due 2036, under an existing shelf registration. The transa...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
NiSource Shareholders Approve Directors, Compensation and Auditor
Positive
May 12, 2026
At NiSource Inc.’s annual meeting held on May 11, 2026, shareholders elected all nominated directors, including Peter A. Altabef, Sondra L. Barbour, and Lloyd M. Yates, with strong majorities despite some variation in opposition and abstenti...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.