Nisource (NI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $19.69B
• Dividend Yield: 2.61%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.26M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.36
• Revenue Growth: 16.98%
• EPS Growth: 12.45%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,687
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Regulated Gas
• EPS (TTM): 0.22
• Shares Outstanding: 470,855,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,530,597
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,257,211
• PEG Ratio: 8.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.06
• P/FCF Ratio: -19.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.86
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.96
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.95
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.50
• 1Y Price Target: $44.29
• Price Target Upside: 4.53% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $48.00 ▲(13.29% Upside)

NiSource's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, including strategic initiatives and regulatory successes. Technical indicators show bullish momentum, though valuation concerns and cash flow challenges present risks.

Positive Factors

Growth and Expansion

NiSource reaffirmed 8%-10% annual rate base growth driving EPS growth of 6%-8% driven by the $19.4bn capex plan for the 2025-2029 period.

Management and Leadership

NiSource has transformed to a leading premium under a strong management team, with above-average 6-8% EPS growth profile, strong balance sheet, and strong regulatory and financial execution.

Market Confidence

Analyst maintains an overweight rating with a price target of $44, indicating confidence in the company's future performance.

Negative Factors

Cost Management

Every $1B of CIAC used would reduce EPS accretion by $0.03 or 0.8% to EPS under a $5B capex scenario.

EPS Challenges

The slight miss in 2Q25 EPS estimate is mostly due to higher storm costs than expected.

Financial Impact

The more CIAC used, the less EPS-accretive the hyperscaler becomes and the greater the NOL reduction.

Nisource Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NiSource Inc. (NI) is a prominent energy holding company headquartered in Merrillville, Indiana. The company is primarily engaged in the regulated utility sector, providing natural gas and electricity services to millions of customers across seven U.S. states. NiSource's core services include the distribution and transmission of natural gas, as well as electricity generation, transmission, and distribution. Through its subsidiaries, NiSource aims to deliver reliable, safe, and environmentally sustainable energy solutions to residential, commercial, and industrial consumers.

How the Company Makes Money

NiSource generates revenue primarily through its regulated utility operations. The company makes money by charging customers for the natural gas and electricity services it provides. This includes fixed charges for connection and service availability, as well as variable charges based on the volume of energy consumed. Additionally, NiSource benefits from regulatory frameworks that allow it to recover costs and earn a reasonable return on its investments in infrastructure, maintenance, and service improvements. The company's revenue streams are also influenced by weather conditions, energy prices, and regulatory decisions. Partnerships with local governments and investments in renewable energy and infrastructure modernization further contribute to NiSource's earnings by enhancing operational efficiency and customer satisfaction.

Nisource Financial Statement Overview

Summary

NiSource demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability, with high EBIT and EBITDA margins indicating efficient operations. However, the balance sheet shows moderate leverage, and cash flow challenges are evident with negative free cash flow, necessitating improved cash management.

Income Statement

The company's income statement shows a strong performance with a healthy gross profit margin of 52.54% and net profit margin of 14.67% for TTM. The revenue growth of 8.75% from the previous year is positive, indicating a solid revenue trajectory. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 27.57% and 46.21% respectively, reflecting efficiency in operations and a strong operational cash flow position.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.67, which is manageable but shows reliance on debt. The return on equity stands at 9.78%, indicating decent profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio is 26.86%, suggesting a balanced mix of equity and liabilities, though there is room for improvement in reducing leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis highlights challenges with negative free cash flow. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.38 indicates strong cash generation relative to profits. The negative free cash flow growth rate of 20.88% raises concerns about cash availability for future investments and debt servicing.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.13B	5.46B	5.51B	5.85B	4.90B	4.68B
Gross Profit	3.34B	2.81B	2.49B	2.25B	2.05B	1.99B
EBITDA	2.52B	2.56B	2.21B	2.14B	1.80B	1.07B
Net Income	886.60M	760.40M	714.30M	804.10M	584.90M	-14.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	0.00	31.79B	31.08B	26.74B	24.16B	22.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	156.60M	2.25B	40.80M	84.20M	116.50M
Total Debt	15.76B	13.96B	14.13B	11.66B	9.80B	9.75B
Total Liabilities	5.80B	21.12B	20.94B	18.83B	16.88B	16.20B
Stockholders Equity	8.88B	8.68B	8.27B	7.58B	6.95B	5.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-494.80M	-861.50M	-710.70M	-793.70M	-620.10M	-654.10M
Operating Cash Flow	1.57B	1.78B	1.94B	1.41B	1.22B	1.10B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.94B	-3.21B	-3.57B	-2.57B	-2.20B	-879.10M
Financing Cash Flow	1.49B	-651.00M	3.84B	1.14B	956.30M	-247.70M

Nisource Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 42.37
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.39, above the 50-day MA of 40.12, and above the 200-day MA of 37.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NI.

Nisource Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NJR	77 Outperform	$4.68B	11.40	18.03%	3.81%	20.30%	63.69%
SR	75 Outperform	$4.42B	16.18	8.37%	4.11%	-7.10%	2.54%
UGI	75 Outperform	$7.76B	19.06	10.84%	4.23%	-4.30%	―
NI	74 Outperform	$19.69B	22.23	10.56%	2.61%	16.98%	12.45%
ATO	72 Outperform	$24.94B	21.68	9.05%	2.10%	10.60%	8.55%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$17.68B	17.88	6.85%	3.50%	6.34%	4.32%
SWX	65 Neutral	$5.63B	29.13	5.41%	3.15%	-10.07%	5.98%

Nisource Corporate Events

NiSource Completes $1.65 Billion Notes Offering

On June 23, 2025, NiSource Inc. entered into a Terms Agreement with several lead underwriters for the offering and sale of $900 million of 5.350% Notes due 2035 and an additional $750 million of 5.850% Notes due 2055. The sale, which closed on June 27, 2025, aims to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, including financing capital expenditures, working capital, and repaying existing debt, thereby impacting the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (NI) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nisource stock, see the NI Stock Forecast page.

NiSource Stockholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

At the Annual Meeting held on May 12, 2025, NiSource stockholders voted on several key proposals. All nominated directors were elected, and the advisory approval of executive compensation was passed. The appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 was ratified. However, a stockholder proposal to improve special shareholder meetings was not approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (NI) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nisource stock, see the NI Stock Forecast page.