Nisource (NI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $18.77B
• Dividend Yield: 2.79%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.12M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.38
• Revenue Growth: 13.08%
• EPS Growth: 17.47%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,687
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Regulated Gas
• EPS (TTM): 0.98
• Shares Outstanding: 470,702,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,453,490
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,118,146
• PEG Ratio: 1.48
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -27.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.78
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.73
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.30
• 1Y Price Target: $43.22
• Price Target Upside: 7.46% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $44.00 ▲(9.40%Upside)

NiSource's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, which are somewhat offset by moderate technical analysis signals and valuation concerns. The company shows robust revenue growth and profitability, supported by strategic initiatives and legislative successes. Nevertheless, cash flow challenges and regulatory uncertainties require attention.

Positive Factors

Earnings Growth

NI remains a key differentiator in the group with its above-average EPS and rate base growth in favorable regulatory jurisdictions with solid regulatory execution.

Guidance and Outlook

The company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and 2025-2029 outlook including 6-8% annual adjusted EPS growth and 8-10% rate base growth.

Strategic Opportunities

Management continues to highlight $2.2B of upside opportunities, which do not yet even include data center-related opportunities.

Negative Factors

Capital Expenditure Impact

The more CIAC used, the less EPS-accretive the hyperscaler becomes and the greater the NOL reduction.

Load Growth Uncertainty

NIPSCO GenCo's regulatory filing and potential disclosures of counterparties behind the ~2,600MW of anticipated load growth are expected catalysts.

Regulatory Challenges

Management noted that the company is in 'active settlement negotiations' in front of scheduled hearings in the case.

Nisource Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NiSource Inc., an energy holding company, operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility company in the United States. It operates through two segments, Gas Distribution Operations and Electric Operations. The company distributes natural gas to approximately 853,000 customers in northern Indiana, as well as approximately 2.4 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, and Maryland. It operates approximately 54,600 miles of distribution main pipelines, as well as associated individual customer service lines; and 1,000 miles of transmission main pipelines. The company generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to approximately 483,000 customers in 20 counties in the northern part of Indiana, as well as engages in wholesale electric and transmission transactions. It owns and operates coal-fired electric generating stations with a capacity of 722 megawatts (MW) in Wheatfield and 455 MW in Michigan City; combined cycle gas turbine with a capacity of 563 MW in West Terre Haute; natural gas generating units with a capacity of 155 MW in Wheatfield; hydro generating plants with a capacity of 9 MW in Carroll County and 7 MW in White County; and wind generating units with a capacity of 102 MW and 302 MW in White County, Indiana. The company was formerly known as NIPSCO Industries, Inc. and changed its name to NiSource Inc. in April 1999. NiSource Inc. was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Merrillville, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

NiSource generates revenue primarily through its regulated utility operations. The company makes money by charging customers for the natural gas and electricity services it provides. This includes fixed charges for connection and service availability, as well as variable charges based on the volume of energy consumed. Additionally, NiSource benefits from regulatory frameworks that allow it to recover costs and earn a reasonable return on its investments in infrastructure, maintenance, and service improvements. The company's revenue streams are also influenced by weather conditions, energy prices, and regulatory decisions. Partnerships with local governments and investments in renewable energy and infrastructure modernization further contribute to NiSource's earnings by enhancing operational efficiency and customer satisfaction.

Nisource Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nisource exhibits strong revenue growth and profitability, supported by efficient operations with high EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, the balance sheet shows moderate leverage, and there are cash flow challenges with negative free cash flow, indicating the need for effective cash management.

Income Statement

The company's income statement shows a strong performance with a healthy gross profit margin of 52.54% and net profit margin of 14.67% for TTM. The revenue growth of 8.75% from the previous year is positive, indicating a solid revenue trajectory. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 27.57% and 46.21% respectively, reflecting efficiency in operations and a strong operational cash flow position.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.67, which is manageable but shows reliance on debt. The return on equity stands at 9.78%, indicating decent profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio is 26.86%, suggesting a balanced mix of equity and liabilities, though there is room for improvement in reducing leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis highlights challenges with negative free cash flow. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.38 indicates strong cash generation relative to profits. The negative free cash flow growth rate of 20.88% raises concerns about cash availability for future investments and debt servicing.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.93B	5.46B	5.51B	5.85B	4.90B	4.68B
Gross Profit	3.12B	2.81B	2.49B	2.25B	2.05B	1.99B
EBITDA	2.74B	2.56B	2.21B	2.14B	1.80B	1.07B
Net Income	870.20M	760.40M	714.30M	804.10M	584.90M	-14.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	33.11B	31.79B	31.08B	26.74B	24.16B	22.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	259.40M	156.60M	2.25B	40.80M	84.20M	116.50M
Total Debt	14.89B	13.96B	14.13B	11.66B	9.80B	9.75B
Total Liabilities	22.16B	21.12B	20.94B	18.83B	16.88B	16.20B
Stockholders Equity	8.90B	8.68B	8.27B	7.58B	6.95B	5.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-681.50M	-861.50M	-710.70M	-793.70M	-620.10M	-654.10M
Operating Cash Flow	2.07B	1.78B	1.94B	1.41B	1.22B	1.10B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.74B	-3.11B	-3.57B	-2.57B	-2.20B	-879.10M
Financing Cash Flow	1.87B	-651.00M	3.84B	1.14B	956.30M	-247.70M

Nisource Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 40.22
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.79, above the 50-day MA of 39.44, and above the 200-day MA of 37.59, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.76 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NI.

Nisource Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UGI	76 Outperform	$7.69B	14.76	10.84%	4.17%	-4.30%	―
NJR	76 Outperform	$4.64B	11.10	17.83%	3.89%	20.30%	63.69%
ATO	72 Outperform	$24.59B	21.67	9.18%	2.25%	10.60%	8.55%
SR	72 Outperform	$4.48B	18.61	7.30%	4.13%	-7.10%	2.54%
NI	71 Outperform	$18.77B	21.48	10.34%	2.79%	13.08%	17.47%
SWX	68 Neutral	$5.54B	24.68	6.49%	3.22%	-10.78%	16.27%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$16.46B	16.85	4.47%	3.80%	4.76%	6.06%

Nisource Corporate Events

NiSource Completes $1.65 Billion Notes Offering

On June 23, 2025, NiSource Inc. entered into a Terms Agreement with several lead underwriters for the offering and sale of $900 million of 5.350% Notes due 2035 and an additional $750 million of 5.850% Notes due 2055. The sale, which closed on June 27, 2025, aims to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, including financing capital expenditures, working capital, and repaying existing debt, thereby impacting the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (NI) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nisource stock, see the NI Stock Forecast page.

NiSource Stockholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

At the Annual Meeting held on May 12, 2025, NiSource stockholders voted on several key proposals. All nominated directors were elected, and the advisory approval of executive compensation was passed. The appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 was ratified. However, a stockholder proposal to improve special shareholder meetings was not approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (NI) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nisource stock, see the NI Stock Forecast page.