Nisource Inc (NI)
NYSE:NI
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Nisource
(NYSE:NI)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$48.00
â–²(5.63% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/12/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial fundamentals—stable profitability and improving revenue trends, but persistent negative free cash flow and elevated/rising leverage. Offsetting this, technicals are constructive and the earnings call was broadly positive with reaffirmed growth guidance and improving credit metrics, though valuation remains relatively high for the utility profile and near-term execution/regulatory approvals are meaningful risks.
Positive Factors
Large capital plan & data center pipeline
NiSource’s $28B five‑year plan, including nearly $7B targeted at data center infrastructure and a 1–3 GW active pipeline, meaningfully expands regulated rate base and secures long‑duration load. If executed, this provides durable EPS and rate‑base growth that supports long‑term earnings and utility scale.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative free cash flow
Consistent negative free cash flow means operating cash doesn't cover required capex, forcing reliance on external financing. Over 2–6 months this restricts flexibility, can increase dilution or leverage via planned ATM equity and debt, and raises vulnerability to higher financing costs during large project builds.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large capital plan & data center pipeline
NiSource’s $28B five‑year plan, including nearly $7B targeted at data center infrastructure and a 1–3 GW active pipeline, meaningfully expands regulated rate base and secures long‑duration load. If executed, this provides durable EPS and rate‑base growth that supports long‑term earnings and utility scale.
Read all positive factors
Nisource (NI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$21.74B
Dividend Yield2.69%
Average Volume (3M)3.89M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.2
Beta (1Y)0.34
Revenue Growth19.62%
EPS Growth12.87%
CountryUS
Employees7,687
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.51
Shares Outstanding478,533,170
10 Day Avg. Volume3,115,126
30 Day Avg. Volume3,891,781
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.05
Price to Book (P/B)2.09
Price to Sales (P/S)2.97
P/FCF Ratio-47.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.74
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.83
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.62
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$48.33Price Target Upside6.36% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)2.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.63B
Nisource Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NiSource Inc., an energy holding company, operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility company in the United States. It operates through two segments, Gas Distribution Operations and Electric Operations. The company distributes natural...
How the Company Makes Money
NiSource generates revenue primarily through the provision of utility services, including the distribution of natural gas and electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company operates under a regulated framework, which...
Nisource Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Revenues by Segment
Breaks down revenue from various segments, indicating where the company is generating the most sales and potential growth opportunities.
Breaks down revenue from various segments, indicating where the company is generating the most sales and potential growth opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNisource Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple clear operational and financial strengths — stronger-than-expected 2025 results (adjusted EPS up vs. prior year), a solid balance-sheet metric (FFO to debt of 16.1%), a large and advancing capital plan including a transformative Amazon/Genco opportunity, sizable data center and economic-development pipelines, and continued regulatory progress in key jurisdictions. Key risks highlighted were dependence on pending regulatory approvals (IURC decision for the Amazon special contract), construction and financing execution risk for Genco, weather-driven timing effects and regulatory passbacks, rising operating and interest expenses, and ongoing regulatory uncertainty (federal orders and evolving EPA/MISO rules). On balance, the positive operational execution and financial outperformance, the scale of the pipeline (data centers, Amazon/Genco), and improved credit metrics outweigh the execution and regulatory risks called out on the call.Positive Updates
Amazon (Genco) Agreement and Customer Value Return
Executed agreement with Amazon expected to return approximately $1.0 billion to NIPSCO customers (estimated $7–$9 per customer per month upon full ramp). Genco represents $6–$7 billion of capital through 2032 and is expected to begin contributing 1–2¢ to consolidated EPS in 2026.
Negative Updates
Dependence on Pending Regulatory Approval (IURC) for Amazon Special Contract
Amazon special contract for the Genco project is pending before the IURC with a decision expected in H1 2026. The timing and outcome are material to ramp timing, capital allocation and near-term earnings visibility.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Amazon (Genco) Agreement and Customer Value Return
Executed agreement with Amazon expected to return approximately $1.0 billion to NIPSCO customers (estimated $7–$9 per customer per month upon full ramp). Genco represents $6–$7 billion of capital through 2032 and is expected to begin contributing 1–2¢ to consolidated EPS in 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
NiSource reaffirmed 2026 consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02–$2.07 (about 8% YoY vs. 2025’s $1.90), with base business guidance of $2.01–$2.05 (6%–8% growth) and Genco expected to add $0.01–$0.02 in 2026; management targets an 8%–9% EPS CAGR and a 9%–11% consolidated rate-base CAGR through 2033. The company plans roughly $28 billion of investment over the next five years (including $21 billion of base utility CapEx, the Amazon/Genco project of $6–7 billion through 2032 with most in the five‑year window, and about $2 billion of upside CapEx), aims to keep O&M flat, target average annual bill increases below 5%, and assumes modest customer growth of <1%. Financial priorities include maintaining FFO-to-debt of 14%–16% (2025 actual 16.1%, +150 bps), funding via operating cash flow, long‑term debt and $300M–$500M/year ATM equity, retaining Genco financing flexibility (minority equity/project debt), and delivering a ~7.1% dividend increase for 2026 with a 55%–65% payout ratio; the data‑center pipeline includes 1–3 GW in active negotiations and up to 3 GW of additional opportunities.Nisource Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.64B | 5.46B | 5.51B | 5.85B | 4.90B |
| Gross Profit | 3.89B | 2.81B | 2.48B | 2.25B | 2.05B |
| EBITDA | 3.00B | 2.57B | 2.22B | 2.15B | 1.80B |
| Net Income | 929.50M | 760.40M | 714.30M | 804.10M | 584.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 36.55B | 31.79B | 31.08B | 26.74B | 24.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 135.70M | 156.60M | 2.25B | 40.80M | 84.20M |
| Total Debt | 16.24B | 13.96B | 14.13B | 11.53B | 9.99B |
| Total Liabilities | 24.89B | 21.12B | 20.94B | 18.83B | 16.88B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.45B | 8.68B | 8.27B | 7.58B | 6.95B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -420.00M | -861.50M | -710.70M | -793.70M | -620.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.36B | 1.78B | 1.94B | 1.41B | 1.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.29B | -3.21B | -3.57B | -2.57B | -2.20B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.87B | -651.00M | 3.84B | 1.14B | 956.30M |
Nisource Technical Analysis
Neutral
45.44
Price Trends
45.39
Positive
43.71
Positive
42.33
Positive
Market Momentum
0.03
Positive
44.69
Neutral
28.28
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 45.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.57, above the 50-day MA of 45.39, and above the 200-day MA of 42.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NI.
Nisource Risk Analysis
Nisource disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nisource reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nisource Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $6.26B | 21.17 | 11.62% | 3.07% | -23.15% | 157.45% | |
67 Neutral | $21.74B | 21.25 | 10.23% | 2.69% | 19.62% | 12.87% | |
67 Neutral | $30.31B | 16.92 | 9.20% | 2.15% | 12.91% | 9.86% | |
67 Neutral | $5.38B | 12.84 | 8.27% | 3.82% | -4.50% | 2.49% | |
66 Neutral | $5.51B | 9.48 | 13.39% | 4.01% | 13.94% | 13.93% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $7.86B | 6.77 | 12.21% | 3.92% | 1.10% | 140.04% |
* Utilities Sector Average
NI
Nisource
45.97
7.12
18.33%
ATO
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183.19
34.05
22.83%
SR
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90.68
15.56
20.71%
NJR
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54.59
7.13
15.02%
SWX
Southwest Gas
86.71
16.02
22.66%
UGI
UGI
36.67
5.14
16.30%
Nisource Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
NiSource Expands Credit Facility by $650 Million
Neutral
Dec 11, 2025
On December 11, 2025, NiSource Inc. entered into a Seventh Amended and Restated Revolving Credit Agreement, increasing its credit facility by $650 million to $2.5 billion and extending the termination date to December 11, 2030. The agreement also ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.