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Nisource Inc (NI)
NYSE:NI

Nisource (NI) AI Stock Analysis

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NI

Nisource

(NYSE:NI)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$44.00
▲(10.08%Upside)
NiSource's overall score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, which are the most significant factors. Technical analysis and valuation are neutral, indicating a balanced outlook. Attention to cash flow management and regulatory challenges are key areas to monitor for future performance.
Positive Factors
Earnings Potential
NI reported strong Q1 results and continues to boast an attractive opportunity set beyond the already solid base.
Growth Prospects
NI continues to make good progress in commercial negotiations with potential customers for data center buildout in Northern Indiana.
Regulatory Support
Regulatory/policy treatment is viewed as supportive, with potential approval of the IN Genco & SB 103 seen as incremental positive data points on the business-friendly nature of the company’s largest jurisdictions.
Negative Factors
CapEx and EPS Relationship
Every $1B of CIAC used would reduce EPS accretion by $0.03 or 0.8% to EPS under a $5B capex scenario.
EPS Impact
The more CIAC used, the less EPS-accretive the hyperscaler becomes and the greater the NOL reduction.
Settlement Uncertainty
Management noted that the company is in 'active settlement negotiations' in front of scheduled hearings in the case.

Nisource (NI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Nisource Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNiSource Inc. (NI) is a prominent energy holding company headquartered in Merrillville, Indiana. The company is primarily engaged in the regulated utility sector, providing natural gas and electricity services to millions of customers across seven U.S. states. NiSource's core services include the distribution and transmission of natural gas, as well as electricity generation, transmission, and distribution. Through its subsidiaries, NiSource aims to deliver reliable, safe, and environmentally sustainable energy solutions to residential, commercial, and industrial consumers.
How the Company Makes MoneyNiSource generates revenue primarily through its regulated utility operations. The company makes money by charging customers for the natural gas and electricity services it provides. This includes fixed charges for connection and service availability, as well as variable charges based on the volume of energy consumed. Additionally, NiSource benefits from regulatory frameworks that allow it to recover costs and earn a reasonable return on its investments in infrastructure, maintenance, and service improvements. The company's revenue streams are also influenced by weather conditions, energy prices, and regulatory decisions. Partnerships with local governments and investments in renewable energy and infrastructure modernization further contribute to NiSource's earnings by enhancing operational efficiency and customer satisfaction.

Nisource Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 1.55%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call depicted a strong financial performance and operational efficiency improvements, supported by favorable legislative outcomes. However, ongoing regulatory challenges, potential tariff impacts, and strategic assessments on coal plant retirements presented areas of concern.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
NiSource reported first quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.98, a 15% increase from $0.85 in the same quarter last year. The company reaffirmed 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.85 to $1.89 and annual 2025 to 2029 guidance for adjusted EPS growth of 6% to 8%.
Successful Legislative Developments
The passing of Ohio Senate Bill 103, which modernizes natural gas rate making, minimizes regulatory lag, and maximizes the value of investments.
Capital Expenditure Progress
NiSource launched Dunns Bridge II, making it one of the largest solar generation facilities in the country. The company has installed 2,100 megawatts of renewable nameplate capacity, with most assets negotiated at prices 50% lower than today's market.
Operational Efficiency Gains
AI-driven initiatives across operations have led to a 60,000-hour productivity improvement, with extended programs showing consistent productivity gains averaging 16.5%.
Negative Updates
Regulatory Challenges
Settlement discussions and regulatory approvals for the NIPSCO Genco initiative remain ongoing, creating uncertainty around its impact and implementation timeline.
Potential Impact of Federal Tariffs
While largely insulated, there is an ongoing assessment of the impact of potential tariff changes on future procurement and capital investments.
Coal Plant Retirement Considerations
The potential extension of coal plant operations is under assessment in light of federal executive orders, which could affect long-term procurement strategies.
Company Guidance
During the NiSource First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided specific financial guidance and reaffirmed several key metrics. NiSource reported a first quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.98, a 15% increase from the previous year's $0.85. The company reaffirmed its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.85 to $1.89 and maintained its long-term annual guidance from 2025 to 2029, projecting 6% to 8% adjusted EPS growth, an 8% to 10% rate base increase, and a 14% to 16% FFO-to-debt ratio. The call emphasized NiSource's stable regulatory environment, disciplined capital allocation, and ongoing efforts to leverage AI for operational improvements. Additionally, the company highlighted its strategic initiatives, including legislative actions in Ohio aimed at modernizing natural gas rate-making and efforts to support data center development in Northern Indiana.

Nisource Financial Statement Overview

Summary
NiSource shows strong revenue growth and profitability with high EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating efficient operations. The balance sheet is stable but could benefit from reduced leverage. Cash flow challenges, particularly negative free cash flow, suggest the need for effective cash management strategies. Overall, the financial health is solid but requires attention to cash flow improvements.
Income Statement
78
Positive
The company's income statement shows a strong performance with a healthy gross profit margin of 52.54% and net profit margin of 14.67% for TTM. The revenue growth of 8.75% from the previous year is positive, indicating a solid revenue trajectory. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 27.57% and 46.21% respectively, reflecting efficiency in operations and a strong operational cash flow position.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.67, which is manageable but shows reliance on debt. The return on equity stands at 9.78%, indicating decent profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio is 26.86%, suggesting a balanced mix of equity and liabilities, though there is room for improvement in reducing leverage.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Cash flow analysis highlights challenges with negative free cash flow. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.38 indicates strong cash generation relative to profits. The negative free cash flow growth rate of 20.88% raises concerns about cash availability for future investments and debt servicing.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.93B5.46B5.51B5.85B4.90B4.68B
Gross Profit3.12B2.81B2.49B2.25B2.05B1.99B
EBITDA2.74B2.56B2.21B2.14B1.80B1.07B
Net Income870.20M760.40M714.30M804.10M584.90M-14.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets33.11B31.79B31.08B26.74B24.16B22.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments259.40M156.60M2.25B40.80M84.20M116.50M
Total Debt14.89B13.96B14.13B11.66B9.80B9.75B
Total Liabilities22.16B21.12B20.94B18.83B16.88B16.20B
Stockholders Equity8.90B8.68B8.27B7.58B6.95B5.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-681.50M-861.50M-710.70M-793.70M-620.10M-654.10M
Operating Cash Flow2.07B1.78B1.94B1.41B1.22B1.10B
Investing Cash Flow-3.74B-3.11B-3.57B-2.57B-2.20B-879.10M
Financing Cash Flow1.87B-651.00M3.84B1.14B956.30M-247.70M

Nisource Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price39.97
Price Trends
50DMA
39.25
Positive
100DMA
39.09
Positive
200DMA
37.17
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.21
Negative
RSI
55.25
Neutral
STOCH
44.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.58, above the 50-day MA of 39.25, and above the 200-day MA of 37.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NI.

Nisource Risk Analysis

Nisource disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nisource reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nisource Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
ATATO
76
Outperform
$24.26B21.329.18%2.27%10.60%8.55%
UGUGI
76
Outperform
$7.66B14.7110.84%4.16%-4.30%
NINI
74
Outperform
$18.70B21.4110.34%2.83%13.08%17.47%
SRSR
72
Outperform
$4.30B18.007.30%4.26%-7.10%2.54%
NJNJR
71
Outperform
$4.48B10.8317.83%4.00%20.30%63.69%
SWSWX
68
Neutral
$5.31B23.666.49%3.33%-10.78%16.27%
67
Neutral
$16.42B16.954.63%3.58%4.77%6.10%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NI
Nisource
39.97
12.03
43.06%
ATO
Atmos Energy
152.49
38.54
33.82%
SR
Spire
72.89
14.75
25.37%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
44.68
3.55
8.63%
SWX
Southwest Gas
74.15
6.12
9.00%
UGI
UGI
36.13
14.36
65.96%

Nisource Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
NiSource Completes $1.65 Billion Notes Offering
Neutral
Jun 27, 2025

On June 23, 2025, NiSource Inc. entered into a Terms Agreement with several lead underwriters for the offering and sale of $900 million of 5.350% Notes due 2035 and an additional $750 million of 5.850% Notes due 2055. The sale, which closed on June 27, 2025, aims to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, including financing capital expenditures, working capital, and repaying existing debt, thereby impacting the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (NI) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nisource stock, see the NI Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder Meetings
NiSource Stockholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 13, 2025

At the Annual Meeting held on May 12, 2025, NiSource stockholders voted on several key proposals. All nominated directors were elected, and the advisory approval of executive compensation was passed. The appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 was ratified. However, a stockholder proposal to improve special shareholder meetings was not approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (NI) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nisource stock, see the NI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: May 30, 2025