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UGI Corp (UGI)
NYSE:UGI

UGI (UGI) AI Stock Analysis

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UGI

UGI

(NYSE:UGI)

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Outperform 70 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$42.00
â–²(14.13% Upside)
UGI's overall stock score reflects a balanced view of its financial performance, technical indicators, valuation, and earnings call insights. The most significant factor is the positive earnings call, highlighting strong financial results and strategic growth plans. Technical analysis also supports a bullish outlook, while valuation remains reasonable. Financial performance shows mixed results, with improved profitability but challenges in revenue growth and cash flow generation.
Positive Factors
Record Adjusted Earnings
Achieving record adjusted EPS indicates strong operational performance and effective cost management, supporting long-term profitability.
Free Cash Flow Generation
Strong free cash flow generation enhances UGI's ability to reinvest in growth opportunities and return value to shareholders, bolstering financial stability.
Utility Customer Growth
Customer base expansion in utilities strengthens UGI's market position and revenue potential, supporting sustainable growth.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can constrain financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting UGI's ability to fund future investments.
Decline in UGI International EBIT
Decreased EBIT in UGI International signals challenges in international operations, which may affect overall profitability and growth.
Challenges in Free Cash Flow
Challenges in generating free cash flow could limit UGI's capacity to invest in growth initiatives and manage debt, impacting long-term financial health.

UGI (UGI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

UGI Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionUGI Corporation distributes, stores, transports, and markets energy products and related services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: AmeriGas Propane, UGI International, Midstream & Marketing, and UGI Utilities. It distributes propane to approximately 1.4 million residential, commercial/industrial, motor fuel, agricultural, and wholesale customers through 1,600 propane distribution location. The company also distributes liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) to residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, wholesale and automobile fuel customers; and provides logistics, storage, and other services to third-party LPG distributors. In addition, it engages in the retail sale of natural gas, liquid fuels, and electricity to approximately 12,600 residential, commercial, and industrial customers at 42,400 locations. Further, the company distributes natural gas to approximately 672,000 customers in eastern and central Pennsylvania counties through its distribution system of approximately 12,400 miles of gas mains; and supplies electricity to approximately 62,500 customers in northeastern Pennsylvania through 2,600 miles of lines and 14 substations. Additionally, it operates electric generation facilities, which include coal-fired, landfill gas-fueled, solar-powered, and natural gas-fueled facilities; a natural gas liquefaction, storage, and vaporization facility; propane storage and propane-air mixing stations; and rail transshipment terminals. It also manages natural gas pipeline and storage contracts; develops, owns, and operates pipelines, gathering infrastructure, and gas storage facilities. UGI Corporation was incorporated in 1991 and is based in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyUGI generates revenue primarily through the sale of natural gas and propane to its customers. The company's key revenue streams include residential, commercial, and industrial gas distribution services, which are billed based on consumption. Additionally, UGI earns income from propane sales through its extensive distribution network, which serves both domestic and commercial markets. The company also benefits from storage and transportation fees associated with its midstream operations. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions in the energy sector enhance UGI's market presence and contribute to its earnings, allowing for growth in both traditional and renewable energy markets.

UGI Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 20, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call was largely positive, with significant achievements in adjusted EPS, free cash flow generation, and operational improvements at AmeriGas. Despite some challenges in UGI International and Midstream & Marketing, the company demonstrated strong financial performance and strategic growth plans.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Adjusted Earnings Per Share
UGI delivered record adjusted earnings per share of $3.32, surpassing the revised guidance range of $3 to $3.15.
Significant Free Cash Flow Generation
Approximately $530 million of free cash flow was generated, inclusive of cash from asset sales of selected LPG territories.
AmeriGas EBIT Growth
AmeriGas achieved a 17% EBIT growth due to operational improvements and tax benefits.
Utility Customer Growth
The utility segment added over 11,500 residential heating and commercial customers, increasing the customer base to roughly 967,000.
Successful Portfolio Optimization
UGI achieved approximately $150 million from LPG divestitures, excluding the divestiture of the Austrian business.
Operational Improvements at AmeriGas
Achieved a 30% reduction in recordable incidents and improved routing and delivery processes, resulting in approximately 10% savings in fuel costs.
Strategic Vision and EPS Growth Expectations
Raised long-term EPS growth expectations with a target of 5% to 7% compound annual growth rate.
Negative Updates
Decline in UGI International EBIT
UGI International reported a $9 million decrease in EBIT due to higher income tax expense and lower margin contribution.
Decreased Midstream & Marketing EBIT
EBIT was down $20 million due to lower margin and reduced income from equity method investments.
Higher Operating and Administrative Expenses in Utilities
Utilities experienced increased operating and administrative expenses, impacting overall EBIT growth.
Company Guidance
During the UGI Corporation Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided robust guidance for fiscal 2026. UGI reported record adjusted earnings per share of $3.32 for fiscal 2025, exceeding their revised guidance range of $3 to $3.15, driven by strong performance across various segments, particularly AmeriGas and the utility segment. They generated approximately $530 million in free cash flow and returned value to shareholders through $320 million in dividends. Looking ahead, UGI has set a fiscal 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance range of $2.85 to $3.15, with an expected reportable segment EBIT growth of 5% to 7% year-over-year. They plan to invest $4.5 billion to $4.9 billion over the next few years, focusing on strategic growth opportunities and infrastructure modernization. Additionally, UGI aims to maintain a leverage ratio at or below 3.75x for UGI Corporation and 4.0x for AmeriGas, ensuring financial flexibility for future investments.

UGI Financial Statement Overview

Summary
UGI's financial statements present a mixed picture. The income statement shows improved profitability despite declining revenue growth. The balance sheet reflects high leverage but improving returns on equity. The cash flow statement indicates challenges in free cash flow generation. Overall, UGI faces a challenging environment with some positive signs of profitability improvement.
Income Statement
UGI's income statement shows mixed results. The company has experienced a decline in revenue growth, with a negative growth rate in recent years. However, the net profit margin has improved from 3.73% in 2024 to 9.30% in 2025, indicating better profitability. The EBIT margin remained stable around 15%, but the gross profit margin was not provided for 2025. Overall, the income statement reflects a challenging revenue environment but improved profitability.
Balance Sheet
UGI's balance sheet indicates a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.64 in 2024, which suggests significant leverage. The return on equity improved from a negative value in 2023 to 6.19% in 2024, showing a recovery in profitability. The equity ratio was not provided, limiting the analysis. The balance sheet reflects high leverage but improving returns on equity.
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement shows a decline in free cash flow growth by -11.96% in 2025, indicating challenges in generating free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was not provided for 2025, but the free cash flow to net income ratio was 0.33 in 2024, suggesting moderate cash conversion. Overall, the cash flow statement highlights challenges in free cash flow generation.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue7.33B7.29B7.21B8.92B10.12B7.46B
Gross Profit3.09B3.07B3.22B3.22B2.44B2.80B
EBITDA1.40B1.67B1.33B-886.00M2.23B2.78B
Net Income418.00M678.00M269.00M-1.50B1.07B1.47B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets15.36B15.46B15.10B15.40B17.57B16.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments350.00M355.00M213.00M241.00M405.00M855.00M
Total Debt6.95B7.56B7.14B7.25B7.00B6.82B
Total Liabilities10.48B10.68B10.74B11.01B11.50B11.19B
Stockholders Equity4.87B4.78B4.34B4.39B6.07B5.52B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow443.00M390.00M386.00M133.00M-88.00M791.00M
Operating Cash Flow1.29B1.23B1.18B1.11B716.00M1.48B
Investing Cash Flow-740.00M-699.00M-792.00M-1.08B-1.01B-1.11B
Financing Cash Flow-403.00M-406.00M-506.00M-168.00M-51.00M166.00M

UGI Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price36.80
Price Trends
50DMA
36.35
Positive
100DMA
34.70
Positive
200DMA
34.28
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.21
Positive
RSI
42.57
Neutral
STOCH
34.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UGI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 36.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.87, above the 50-day MA of 36.35, and above the 200-day MA of 34.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for UGI.

UGI Risk Analysis

UGI disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UGI reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

UGI Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$5.85B12.625.42%3.07%-23.15%157.45%
70
Outperform
$8.02B12.0614.87%3.92%1.10%140.04%
69
Neutral
$4.84B18.758.20%3.82%-4.50%2.49%
68
Neutral
$4.60B17.898.51%3.45%15.06%12.27%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
64
Neutral
$2.88B21.559.13%2.15%17.15%15.00%
64
Neutral
$4.62B13.7614.62%4.01%13.94%13.93%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
UGI
UGI
37.32
10.02
36.68%
CPK
Chesapeake Utilities
121.76
7.72
6.77%
SR
Spire
81.98
19.02
30.21%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
45.81
2.34
5.38%
SWX
Southwest Gas
80.98
14.25
21.35%
OGS
ONE Gas
76.74
11.17
17.04%

UGI Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
UGI Reports Strong Fiscal Year 2025 Results
Positive
Nov 21, 2025

On November 20, 2025, UGI Corporation reported strong financial results for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2025, with a GAAP net income of $678 million and adjusted net income of $728 million, significantly higher than the previous year. The company also issued guidance for fiscal year 2026, projecting an adjusted EPS range of $2.90 to $3.15, with an expected 5-7% growth in reportable segments EBIT. UGI strengthened its balance sheet, generated $530 million of free cash flow, and returned value to shareholders through dividends. The company highlighted improvements at AmeriGas and solid performance from its Utilities segment as key drivers of its success.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGI) stock is a Hold with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UGI stock, see the UGI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
UGI Subsidiary Amends Credit Agreement with PNC Bank
Neutral
Nov 14, 2025

On November 10, 2025, AmeriGas Propane, L.P., a subsidiary of UGI Corporation, amended its Revolving Credit and Security Agreement with PNC Bank and other lenders. The amendment revises the Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio to exclude certain dividends and distributions, impacting financial obligations and potentially influencing the company’s financial strategy through fiscal years 2026 and 2027.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGI) stock is a Hold with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UGI stock, see the UGI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
UGI Amends Receivables Agreement with PNC Bank
Neutral
Oct 22, 2025

On October 17, 2025, UGIES and its subsidiary ESFC amended their Receivables Purchase Agreement with PNC Bank, extending the termination date to October 16, 2026, and adjusting the settlement date to the 21st of each month. This amendment impacts UGIES’s financial operations by securing trade receivables and maintaining financial flexibility, which is crucial for its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGI) stock is a Hold with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UGI stock, see the UGI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 09, 2025