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UGI Corp (UGI)
NYSE:UGI
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UGI
(NYSE:UGI)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$41.00
â–²(7.08% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/06/26
UGI scores in the mid-60s primarily due to improving profitability and operations but with leverage and only moderate cash-to-debt coverage still constraining financial strength. Valuation is supportive (mid-teens P/E and ~4% yield), while technicals are mixed with weaker near-term price trend but longer-term support and only modest momentum.
Positive Factors
Improved Profitability & Margins
UGI’s margins have meaningfully recovered to mid-teens at the EBIT level and positive net margins, reflecting durable operational improvement across segments. Higher margin durability supports sustained cash generation and provides buffer against cyclical commodity swings over months.
Solid Cash Generation
UGI produces positive operating and free cash flow at scale, enabling capital investment, dividends and debt reduction. Sustainable multi-hundred-million FCF levels provide financial flexibility to fund regulated investments and deleveraging over the medium term.
Regulated Utility Base & Infrastructure
UGI’s regulated utility footprint and new infrastructure (Carlisle LNG) underpin stable, ratable cash flows and long-term demand access. Rate-case filings to fund system upgrades further embed cost recovery mechanisms, strengthening durable revenue visibility.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Balance-sheet leverage is elevated for a regulated-energy profile, limiting financial flexibility if rates or funding costs rise. Sustained leverage near current levels constrains investment optionality and increases sensitivity to interest-rate or cash-flow shocks over months.
Inconsistent Cash Conversion
Although FCF is positive, conversion to cash is only moderate and has varied materially year-to-year. Inconsistent free-cash-flow history and FCF well below net income reduce confidence that current cash generation trends will persist without continued operational stability.
LPG Volume Declines & Divestiture Earnings Loss
Structural declines in certain LPG end uses and recent divestitures have trimmed international LPG earnings. Loss of scale and lower volumes make recovery harder, pressuring segment earnings and requiring sustained margin management to offset lost contribution over the medium term.
UGI (UGI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.18B
Dividend Yield3.92%
Average Volume (3M)2.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.1
Beta (1Y)0.19
Revenue Growth1.10%
EPS Growth140.04%
CountryUS
Employees9,750
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.26
Shares Outstanding214,636,340
10 Day Avg. Volume1,529,902
30 Day Avg. Volume2,204,604
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)1.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.98
P/FCF Ratio18.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.80
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.10
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.14
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$44.50Price Target Upside16.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
UGI Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionUGI Corporation distributes, stores, transports, and markets energy products and related services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: AmeriGas Propane, UGI International, Midstream & Marketing, and UGI Utilities. It distributes propane to approximately 1.4 million residential, commercial/industrial, motor fuel, agricultural, and wholesale customers through 1,600 propane distribution location. The company also distributes liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) to residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, wholesale and automobile fuel customers; and provides logistics, storage, and other services to third-party LPG distributors. In addition, it engages in the retail sale of natural gas, liquid fuels, and electricity to approximately 12,600 residential, commercial, and industrial customers at 42,400 locations. Further, the company distributes natural gas to approximately 672,000 customers in eastern and central Pennsylvania counties through its distribution system of approximately 12,400 miles of gas mains; and supplies electricity to approximately 62,500 customers in northeastern Pennsylvania through 2,600 miles of lines and 14 substations. Additionally, it operates electric generation facilities, which include coal-fired, landfill gas-fueled, solar-powered, and natural gas-fueled facilities; a natural gas liquefaction, storage, and vaporization facility; propane storage and propane-air mixing stations; and rail transshipment terminals. It also manages natural gas pipeline and storage contracts; develops, owns, and operates pipelines, gathering infrastructure, and gas storage facilities. UGI Corporation was incorporated in 1991 and is based in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyUGI generates revenue primarily through the sale of natural gas and propane to its customers. The company's key revenue streams include residential, commercial, and industrial gas distribution services, which are billed based on consumption. Additionally, UGI earns income from propane sales through its extensive distribution network, which serves both domestic and commercial markets. The company also benefits from storage and transportation fees associated with its midstream operations. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions in the energy sector enhance UGI's market presence and contribute to its earnings, allowing for growth in both traditional and renewable energy markets.
UGI Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall, the call conveyed a constructive operational and strategic progress story: consolidated EBIT grew 5%, utilities and UGI International delivered meaningful gains, safety and operational metrics at AmeriGas improved substantially, liquidity and balance-sheet actions (including ~$215M divestiture proceeds) strengthened the financial position, and new infrastructure (Carlisle LNG) came online. Offsetting this were an ~8% decline in adjusted EPS driven by lost tax credits, higher interest expense and divestiture earnings loss, rising operating expenses across segments, a modest midstream earnings drag (~$5M) from pipeline rate timing, and localized delivery challenges during extreme weather. On balance, the positives—underpinned by operational improvement, margin management and balance-sheet progress—outweigh the headwinds, though several near-term impacts on EPS and costs remain.Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Total Reportable Segment EBIT Growth
UGI reported total reportable segments EBIT of $441 million, up $21 million or 5% year-over-year, driven by higher gas base rates in Pennsylvania, colder weather and increased unit margins at UGI International.
Utilities Strong Performance and Volume Growth
Utilities EBIT was $157 million, up $16 million (~11%) year-over-year. Core market volumes increased ~16% (driven by temperatures ~21% colder than prior year) and the company added over 3,500 residential, commercial and industrial heating customers.
Safety and Operational Improvements at AmeriGas
AmeriGas showed material operational progress: a 45% reduction in recordable incidents and 60% fewer lost time injuries year-over-year, reduced zero-fill rates and average miles driven, lower customer service call volumes, highest Net Promoter Score since 2023, and an A-minus BBB ranking. Moody's upgraded AmeriGas' outlook to positive, reflecting operational and financial improvements.
UGI International Margin Management and EBIT Increase
UGI International reported EBIT of $124 million, up $14 million (~13%) year-over-year. Total margin increased by $20 million due to effective margin management and favorable foreign currency translation, helping offset volume declines and the effect of divestitures.
Portfolio Rationalization and Cash Proceeds
Portfolio rationalization substantially complete: agreements to divest LPG operations in seven European countries (representing ~5% of UGI International's prior-year EBIT) are expected to generate approximately $215 million in cash proceeds to strengthen the balance sheet and focus on higher-return markets.
Carlisle LNG Facility Operational and Capital Deployment
UGI deployed $225 million of capital during the quarter (73% directed to regulated utilities ~ $164.3 million) and brought the new Carlisle LNG storage and vaporization facility online, supporting integrated natural gas demand in the region under a long-term contract.
Liquidity and Credit Progress
Available liquidity was $1.6 billion, up $100 million versus prior year (≈ +6.7%). Moody's upgraded AmeriGas Partners' outlook to positive while affirming the B1 corporate family rating. Management remains focused on reducing leverage toward a sub-4.5x target through debt reduction and EBIT growth.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EPS Decline
Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.26 for the quarter versus $1.37 prior year, a decline of approximately 8.0%. Management attributed the decline to the absence of prior-year investment tax credits, higher interest expense, and lost earnings from divestitures (Hawaii, Italy, Austria).
Increased Operating and Administrative Expenses
Operating and administrative expenses rose across domestic segments: utilities O&A increased by $9 million, Midstream & Marketing O&A rose by $6 million, and AmeriGas O&A increased by $8 million largely due to personnel-related costs, maintenance and customer-facing investments (retention and advertising).
Midstream & Marketing Pressure from Pipeline Rate Increases
Midstream & Marketing EBIT declined to $88 million from $95 million (down $7 million, ~-7.4%). The business faced higher pipeline transportation rates that are expected to be recovered over time; the near-term impact was quantified in the ~$5 million range.
AmeriGas Earnings Pressure and Delivery Challenges
AmeriGas reported EBIT of $72 million, down $2 million (~-2.7%). While retail LPG volume was up 1 million gallons overall, EBIT was pressured by lower fee income, higher O&A spend to improve customer experience, and delivery stress in markets affected by extreme road/ weather conditions.
Reduced Retail LPG Volumes and Divestiture Impacts
UGI International and AmeriGas experienced lower retail LPG volumes due to reduced crop-drying demand, structural conservation trends, and the divestiture of businesses (e.g., Italy, Austria, Hawaii). These divestitures also removed earnings that weighed on EPS in the quarter.
Potential Affordability/Rate Case Considerations
UGI filed gas base rate cases requesting distribution increases of approximately $99 million (UGI Utilities) and $27 million (Mountaineer Gas). While intended to support >$500 million of infrastructure and technology investments, rate requests may raise affordability concerns for customers despite management's emphasis on OpEx reductions to mitigate bill impacts.
Company Guidance
Management's guidance stressed continued execution and measurable improvement: Q1 total reportable segment EBIT was $441 million (up 5% / +$21M, in line with expectations) with adjusted diluted EPS of $1.26 (vs. $1.37 prior year); segment detail included Utilities EBIT $157M (up $16M) with core market volumes +16% on ~21% colder temperatures and total margin +$28M, Midstream & Marketing EBIT $88M (vs. $95M) with ~18% colder temps and a ~$5M pipeline rate timing headwind expected to be recovered starting this fiscal year, UGI International EBIT $124M (up $14M; total margin +$20M) and AmeriGas EBIT $72M (down $2M) with retail LPG volumes +1 million gallons and total margin +$2M; company deployed $225M of capital (73% to regulated utilities), ended the quarter with $1.6B available liquidity (up $100M YoY), substantially completed LPG portfolio rationalization (divestitures in seven countries representing ~5% of prior-year UGI Intl EBIT) for ~ $215M cash proceeds, filed rate cases requesting ~$99M (UGI Utilities) and ~$27M (Mountaineer) to support >$500M of system and technology upgrades, targets sub‑4.5x leverage, expects to contribute $3M to customer assistance over three years, and set AmeriGas performance goals of ~60% improvement this winter and 100% by next—management said results are broadly in line with expectations and anticipates further recovery and growth (including potential PA demand wins) this fiscal year.UGI Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Earnings and margins have recovered meaningfully (TTM net margin ~8%, EBIT margin ~14%) and operating/free cash flow are positive, but the balance sheet remains meaningfully levered (debt-to-equity ~1.35 TTM) with only moderate debt coverage (OCF-to-debt ~0.42) and historical cash-flow inconsistency.Income Statement
UGI’s profitability profile has improved meaningfully versus the prior two annual periods, moving from a large loss in 2023 to solid positive earnings in 2024 and 2025 (Annual), and remaining profitable in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Margins are currently healthy (TTM net margin ~8% and EBIT margin ~14%), but revenue growth is volatile: a sharp rebound in TTM revenue growth (~71%) contrasts with low growth in the latest annual period (~1%) and prior-year declines. Overall, earnings momentum is constructive, but the top-line trajectory and prior earnings volatility keep the score below the top tier.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is moderately levered for a regulated utility profile. Debt-to-equity remains elevated (roughly ~1.35 in TTM and ~1.58 in the latest annual period), which reduces flexibility if rates or funding costs move against the company. Offsetting this, equity is sizable (~$5.0B TTM) and returns have recovered from negative in 2023 to low-to-mid teens more recently (TTM ROE ~12% and latest annual ~14%), signaling improved profitability. Net: improving returns, but leverage remains a key constraint.63
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is positive, with TTM operating cash flow of ~$1.13B and free cash flow of ~$503M, and a very strong reported TTM free-cash-flow growth rate. However, cash conversion is only moderate: free cash flow is under half of net income in TTM (~45%) and operating cash flow covers a relatively small portion of debt (TTM ~0.42), indicating leverage still weighs on coverage. Free cash flow has also been inconsistent historically (including negative free cash flow in 2022), which limits confidence in durability.58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.34B | 7.29B | 7.21B | 8.93B | 10.11B | 7.45B |
| Gross Profit | 3.60B | 3.63B | 3.68B | 1.99B | 4.13B | 4.83B |
| EBITDA | 1.61B | 1.67B | 1.28B | -926.00M | 2.23B | 2.80B |
| Net Income | 600.00M | 678.00M | 269.00M | -1.50B | 1.07B | 1.47B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.81B | 15.46B | 15.10B | 15.40B | 17.57B | 16.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 251.00M | 355.00M | 213.00M | 241.00M | 405.00M | 855.00M |
| Total Debt | 6.77B | 7.56B | 7.14B | 7.25B | 7.00B | 6.82B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.80B | 10.68B | 10.74B | 11.01B | 11.50B | 11.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.00B | 4.78B | 4.34B | 4.39B | 6.07B | 5.52B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 282.00M | 390.00M | 386.00M | 133.00M | -88.00M | 791.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.13B | 1.23B | 1.18B | 1.11B | 716.00M | 1.48B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -612.00M | -699.00M | -792.00M | -1.08B | -1.01B | -1.11B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -507.00M | -406.00M | -506.00M | -168.00M | -51.00M | 166.00M |
UGI Technical Analysis
Positive
38.29
Price Trends
38.22
Positive
36.18
Positive
35.33
Positive
Market Momentum
0.01
Positive
48.98
Neutral
58.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UGI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.29 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.95, above the 50-day MA of 38.22, and above the 200-day MA of 35.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UGI.
UGI Risk Analysis
UGI disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UGI reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
UGI Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $6.25B | 13.50 | 5.42% | 3.07% | -23.15% | 157.45% | |
71 Outperform | $5.04B | 19.22 | 8.51% | 3.45% | 15.06% | 12.27% | |
66 Neutral | $5.32B | 16.30 | 13.66% | 4.01% | 13.94% | 13.93% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $8.18B | 14.06 | 12.52% | 3.92% | 1.10% | 140.04% | |
64 Neutral | $3.09B | 23.14 | 9.13% | 2.15% | 17.15% | 15.00% | |
64 Neutral | $5.27B | 19.35 | 8.46% | 3.82% | -4.50% | 2.49% |
* Utilities Sector Average
UGI
UGI
38.29
6.39
20.02%
CPK
Chesapeake Utilities
134.39
12.53
10.28%
SR
Spire
90.54
17.71
24.32%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
53.25
7.51
16.43%
SWX
Southwest Gas
87.60
12.84
17.17%
OGS
ONE Gas
85.52
13.34
18.48%
UGI Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
UGI Posts Lower Q1 EPS but Strong Segment EBIT
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
UGI Corporation reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on February 4, 2026, posting GAAP diluted EPS of $1.34 and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.26, both down from the prior year, while reportable segments EBIT rose 5% to $441 million. The quarter was marked by strong performance in its natural gas utilities, buoyed by colder weather and a prior Pennsylvania gas base rate case, and by operational improvements in its global LPG businesses that helped offset the impact of ongoing LPG divestitures; since fiscal 2025, the company has agreed to sell LPG operations in seven European countries for about $215 million in cash proceeds, is seeking significant gas distribution rate increases in Pennsylvania and West Virginia to fund infrastructure upgrades, and is benefiting from a Moody’s outlook upgrade for AmeriGas, underscoring management’s push for operational excellence, balance sheet support and long-term value creation for shareholders and customers.
The most recent analyst rating on (UGI) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UGI stock, see the UGI Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
UGI Shareholders Reaffirm Board And Governance Stability
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
At its January 30, 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, UGI Corporation’s investors re-elected all ten director nominees to the Board, signaling continued support for the company’s existing leadership and strategic direction. Shareholders also approved the company’s executive compensation program in an advisory vote and overwhelmingly ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as UGI’s independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal year 2026, reinforcing stability in the company’s governance, oversight, and financial reporting framework.
The most recent analyst rating on (UGI) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UGI stock, see the UGI Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
UGI Reports Strong Fiscal Year 2025 Results
Positive
Nov 21, 2025
On November 20, 2025, UGI Corporation reported strong financial results for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2025, with a GAAP net income of $678 million and adjusted net income of $728 million, significantly higher than the previous year. The company also issued guidance for fiscal year 2026, projecting an adjusted EPS range of $2.90 to $3.15, with an expected 5-7% growth in reportable segments EBIT. UGI strengthened its balance sheet, generated $530 million of free cash flow, and returned value to shareholders through dividends. The company highlighted improvements at AmeriGas and solid performance from its Utilities segment as key drivers of its success.
The most recent analyst rating on (UGI) stock is a Hold with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UGI stock, see the UGI Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
UGI Subsidiary Amends Credit Agreement with PNC Bank
Neutral
Nov 14, 2025
On November 10, 2025, AmeriGas Propane, L.P., a subsidiary of UGI Corporation, amended its Revolving Credit and Security Agreement with PNC Bank and other lenders. The amendment revises the Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio to exclude certain dividends and distributions, impacting financial obligations and potentially influencing the company’s financial strategy through fiscal years 2026 and 2027.
The most recent analyst rating on (UGI) stock is a Hold with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UGI stock, see the UGI Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.