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UGI Corp (UGI)
NYSE:UGI

UGI (UGI) AI Stock Analysis

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UG

UGI

(NYSE:UGI)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$40.00
▲(10.31%Upside)
UGI's strong financial performance, particularly in profitability and cash flow, coupled with bullish technical indicators, are key drivers of its stock score. Moderate valuation metrics and positive earnings call sentiment further contribute, while high debt levels and challenges in certain segments present caution.
Positive Factors
Demand and Market Position
Cold weather has significantly increased propane demand, which is beneficial for UGI Corp, particularly for its AmeriGas operations.
Earnings
UGI announced F1Q25 adjusted EPS that beat Street and MSUSA estimates.
Growth Potential
Management is focused on new projects and acquisitions, indicating confidence in the company's future growth.
Negative Factors
Financial Strategy
Incoming CEO Bob Flexon emphasized that AmeriGas is now tasked with managing its own balance sheets, as the parent company will not send additional capital toward the LPG subsidiaries.
Operational Challenges
Operational constraints at AmeriGas and Midstream have somewhat limited the ability to fully capitalize on the increased demand from colder weather.
Regulatory and Market Risks
Challenges include operational fixes at AmeriGas still being a work-in-progress, a difficult comp year for Midstream & Marketing, potential regulatory lag at UGI Utilities, and impacts at UGI International related to damages at its LPG supply terminal in France.

UGI (UGI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

UGI Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionUGI Corporation is a diversified energy services holding company engaged primarily in the transportation, distribution, storage, and marketing of energy products and related services. Operating through various subsidiaries, UGI provides natural gas, propane, butane, and electricity to customers in the United States and internationally. The company has a significant presence in both the regulated and unregulated energy markets, offering services that cater to residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale customers.
How the Company Makes MoneyUGI Corporation makes money through several key revenue streams. In the regulated energy segment, UGI generates income by distributing and transporting natural gas and electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. This segment typically ensures stable and predictable revenue due to regulated pricing structures. In the unregulated segment, UGI earns revenue by selling propane and butane through its subsidiaries like AmeriGas and UGI International, which operate in the U.S. and various European countries. The company benefits from its extensive supply chain network, allowing it to efficiently market and deliver energy products. Additionally, UGI engages in energy marketing and trading activities, which contribute to its earnings by capitalizing on market opportunities and price fluctuations. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions also play a vital role, enabling UGI to expand its market reach and enhance its service offerings.

UGI Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 8.01%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
UGI Corporation reported strong financial performance with record-breaking EPS and increased guidance, driven by robust cash flow and operational improvements. However, challenges with AmeriGas and declines in LPG volumes at UGI International tempered the overall positive sentiment.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Adjusted Diluted EPS
UGI reported a 12% year-over-year increase in adjusted diluted EPS for the fiscal second quarter, marking the highest adjusted diluted EPS for the second quarter and year-to-date period in the company's history.
Increased Fiscal 2025 Guidance
UGI increased its fiscal 2025 adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance range to $3 to $3.15, driven by strong financial performance in the first half of the fiscal year.
Expansion of LNG Infrastructure
UGI completed the expansion project to double the liquefaction capacity at its Manning facility, enhancing its ability to fulfill additional peaking contracts.
Significant Free Cash Flow Improvement
Year-to-date free cash flow reached approximately $490 million, up 55% year-over-year, reflecting strong cash generation across UGI's business segments.
Strong Balance Sheet
UGI reported $1.9 billion in available liquidity and a reduction in the leverage ratio from 4 times to 3.8 times, showcasing a strengthened financial position.
Negative Updates
Challenges with AmeriGas
Despite improvements, AmeriGas continued to face customer attrition and experienced a $0.06 decline in adjusted diluted EPS due to higher income tax expenses.
UGI International LPG Volume Decline
UGI International saw a 4% decline in LPG volumes, impacted by structural conservation and the absence of certain customers converting from natural gas to LPG.
Higher Operating and Administrative Expenses at Utility Segment
The Utility segment experienced a $6 million increase in operating and administrative expenses, reflecting higher investments in system maintenance and increased uncollectible account expenses.
Company Guidance
During UGI Corporation's fiscal 2025 second quarter earnings call, the company reported a 12% year-over-year increase in adjusted diluted EPS, marking the highest for the second quarter in its history. UGI's strong performance was largely driven by favorable weather conditions, which enhanced earnings across all business segments. This prompted an increase in the fiscal 2025 adjusted diluted EPS guidance range to $3 to $3.15. The company highlighted available liquidity of $1.9 billion and a leverage ratio of 3.8 times. UGI also mentioned a $160 million capital investment in natural gas businesses and an expansion project at the Manning facility to double its LNG liquefaction capacity. Additionally, the company achieved a 55% year-over-year increase in free cash flow, amounting to approximately $490 million.

UGI Financial Statement Overview

Summary
UGI's financial performance reflects a well-managed utility company with strengths in cash flow generation and profitability despite revenue fluctuations. The balance sheet is solid but carries a moderate level of debt, which requires careful monitoring. Overall, UGI is in a stable financial position, but attention is needed on revenue growth and managing leverage.
Income Statement
72
Positive
UGI's income statement shows a volatile revenue trajectory. Recent TTM data indicates a decline in revenue compared to the previous year, with a Gross Profit Margin of 61.99% and Net Profit Margin of 7.72%. While EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid at 13.31% and 21.11%, respectively, the company has faced challenges in maintaining consistent profitability due to fluctuations in revenue and expenses.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
UGI maintains a stable financial structure with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 1.49, indicating moderate leverage. The Return on Equity stands at a healthy 12.01%, reflecting good profitability on shareholders' investment. The Equity Ratio is 29.71%, suggesting a balanced approach towards equity financing. However, the high total debt relative to equity may pose future risks if not managed effectively.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
UGI demonstrates strong cash flow management with a significant Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 2.23, indicating robust cash conversion. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.07, showing effective capital expenditure management. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate shows a substantial increase, highlighting improved cash generation capabilities.
Breakdown
TTMSep 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021Sep 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
7.12B7.21B8.93B10.11B7.45B6.56B
Gross Profit
3.49B3.68B1.99B4.13B4.83B3.41B
EBIT
948.00M770.00M-1.44B1.67B2.35B982.00M
EBITDA
1.79B1.33B-886.00M2.19B2.94B1.58B
Net Income Common Stockholders
550.00M269.00M-1.50B1.07B1.47B532.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
240.00M213.00M241.00M405.00M855.00M336.00M
Total Assets
15.41B15.10B15.40B17.57B16.72B13.98B
Total Debt
7.26B7.14B7.25B7.00B6.82B6.38B
Net Debt
7.02B6.93B7.01B6.59B5.96B6.04B
Total Liabilities
10.82B10.74B11.01B11.50B11.19B9.85B
Stockholders Equity
4.58B4.34B4.39B6.07B5.52B4.13B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
376.00M386.00M133.00M-88.00M791.00M447.00M
Operating Cash Flow
1.23B1.18B1.11B716.00M1.48B1.10B
Investing Cash Flow
-859.00M-792.00M-1.08B-1.01B-1.11B-649.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-414.00M-506.00M-168.00M-51.00M166.00M-635.00M

UGI Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price36.26
Price Trends
50DMA
33.68
Positive
100DMA
32.63
Positive
200DMA
28.79
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.70
Positive
RSI
55.27
Neutral
STOCH
66.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UGI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.45, above the 50-day MA of 33.68, and above the 200-day MA of 28.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UGI.

UGI Risk Analysis

UGI disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UGI reported the most risks in the “Production” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

UGI Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
UGUGI
76
Outperform
$7.82B15.0310.84%4.14%-4.30%
SRSR
73
Outperform
$4.41B18.427.30%4.13%-7.10%2.54%
NJNJR
71
Outperform
$4.60B11.1017.83%3.86%20.30%63.69%
CPCPK
67
Neutral
$2.84B22.569.04%2.10%20.41%13.64%
OGOGS
66
Neutral
$4.51B18.198.08%3.53%7.73%2.36%
SWSWX
66
Neutral
$5.15B22.976.49%3.46%-10.78%16.27%
64
Neutral
$8.59B10.294.70%4.38%4.14%-13.05%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
UGI
UGI
35.46
12.26
52.84%
CPK
Chesapeake Utilities
119.86
12.01
11.14%
SR
Spire
73.31
15.43
26.66%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
44.77
2.44
5.76%
SWX
Southwest Gas
71.97
-1.86
-2.52%
OGS
ONE Gas
73.49
14.26
24.08%

UGI Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
UGI Subsidiaries Issue $550M in Senior Notes
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

On May 30, 2025, AmeriGas Partners and AmeriGas Finance Corp., subsidiaries of UGI Corporation, issued $550 million in senior unsecured notes due 2030, with an interest rate of 9.500%. The proceeds from this issuance were used to repurchase and redeem all outstanding 5.875% Senior Notes due 2026, effectively releasing the issuers from their obligations under the previous indenture.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGI) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UGI stock, see the UGI Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
UGI Subsidiaries Announce Tender Offer Results
Neutral
May 28, 2025

On May 28, 2025, UGI Corporation’s subsidiaries, AmeriGas Partners, L.P. and AmeriGas Finance Corp., announced the expiration and results of their tender offer for the 5.875% Senior Notes due 2026. The tender offer, which expired on May 27, 2025, saw approximately 83.3% of the notes tendered, amounting to $553,275,000. The settlement for the tendered notes is expected on May 30, 2025, with a total consideration of $1,010 for each $1,000 principal amount of notes tendered. This move reflects UGI’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its liquidity and debt profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGI) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UGI stock, see the UGI Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
UGI’s Subsidiary Enters New Credit Agreement
Positive
May 21, 2025

On May 16, 2025, Mountaineer Gas Company, a subsidiary of UGI Corporation, entered into a new Credit Agreement with The Huntington National Bank and other lenders, refinancing its 2019 Credit Agreement. The new agreement provides a revolving credit facility of $150 million, with the option to increase it to $250 million, and includes various financial covenants and conditions. This strategic financial move is aimed at refinancing existing debt, supporting working capital, and facilitating general corporate purposes, potentially strengthening Mountaineer’s financial position and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGI) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UGI stock, see the UGI Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
UGI Announces $550M Senior Unsecured Notes Offering
Positive
May 21, 2025

On May 21, 2025, UGI Corporation announced that its subsidiaries, AmeriGas Partners and AmeriGas Finance Corp., priced a $550 million offering of 9.500% senior unsecured notes due in 2030. The proceeds from this offering will be used to redeem or repurchase the Issuers’ 5.875% Senior Notes due 2026. This strategic financial move is expected to impact the company’s debt structure and potentially improve its financial flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGI) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UGI stock, see the UGI Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
UGI Subsidiaries Launch $550M Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
May 20, 2025

On May 20, 2025, AmeriGas Partners, L.P. and AmeriGas Finance Corp., subsidiaries of UGI Corporation, initiated a private offering of $550 million in senior notes due 2030. Concurrently, they announced a cash tender offer to purchase their outstanding 5.875% Senior Notes due 2026. The transactions aim to refinance existing debt, with the tender offer and redemption conditioned on successful debt financing. The proceeds from the new notes, along with other liquidity sources, will be used to redeem or repurchase the 2026 notes and cover related expenses.

The most recent analyst rating on (UGI) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UGI stock, see the UGI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
UGI Reports 12% Increase in Quarterly EPS
Positive
May 8, 2025

On May 7, 2025, UGI Corporation announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2025, reporting a 12% increase in adjusted diluted EPS year-over-year. The company highlighted strong operational execution and increased fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $3.00 – $3.15 per share. UGI’s strategic focus on natural gas businesses and infrastructure investments in regulated utilities is driving growth, while efforts at AmeriGas aim to enhance service quality and customer retention. Internationally, disciplined cash flow management supports corporate priorities, positioning UGI to create incremental value for stakeholders.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.