UGI (UGI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.48B
• Dividend Yield: 4.28%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.70M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.36
• Revenue Growth: -0.52%
• EPS Growth: -39.42%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,750
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 76
• Industry: Regulated Gas
• EPS (TTM): -0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 214,924,210
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,703,992
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,695,272
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.93
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.97
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.18
• 1Y Price Target: $42.50
• Price Target Upside: 21.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $39.00 ▲(11.40% Upside)

UGI's overall score reflects strong financial performance and strategic initiatives, supported by positive corporate events. While technical analysis shows mixed signals, the company's valuation and earnings call insights provide a balanced view of its prospects. The high debt level remains a risk, but is mitigated by robust cash flow and strategic financial management.

Positive Factors

Earnings Potential

AmeriGas' deleveraging and operational improvements support a re-rating, with expectations of significant EBITDA growth from FY25 to FY26.

Market Expansion

The investment tax credit for renewable natural gas projects is a notable positive driver for UGI Corp.

Operational Improvement

There is confidence in AmeriGas' ability to reshape customer service infrastructure, which is expected to enhance call effectiveness, lower attrition, and improve overall customer satisfaction.

Negative Factors

Operational Constraints

Operational constraints at AmeriGas and Midstream have somewhat limited the ability to fully capitalize on the increased demand from colder weather.

Turnaround Skepticism

There is skepticism regarding AmeriGas' turnaround after years of decline, although management remains optimistic.

UGI Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

UGI Corporation distributes, stores, transports, and markets energy products and related services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: AmeriGas Propane, UGI International, Midstream & Marketing, and UGI Utilities. It distributes propane to approximately 1.4 million residential, commercial/industrial, motor fuel, agricultural, and wholesale customers through 1,600 propane distribution location. The company also distributes liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) to residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, wholesale and automobile fuel customers; and provides logistics, storage, and other services to third-party LPG distributors. In addition, it engages in the retail sale of natural gas, liquid fuels, and electricity to approximately 12,600 residential, commercial, and industrial customers at 42,400 locations. Further, the company distributes natural gas to approximately 672,000 customers in eastern and central Pennsylvania counties through its distribution system of approximately 12,400 miles of gas mains; and supplies electricity to approximately 62,500 customers in northeastern Pennsylvania through 2,600 miles of lines and 14 substations. Additionally, it operates electric generation facilities, which include coal-fired, landfill gas-fueled, solar-powered, and natural gas-fueled facilities; a natural gas liquefaction, storage, and vaporization facility; propane storage and propane-air mixing stations; and rail transshipment terminals. It also manages natural gas pipeline and storage contracts; develops, owns, and operates pipelines, gathering infrastructure, and gas storage facilities. UGI Corporation was incorporated in 1991 and is based in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

UGI generates revenue primarily through the sale of natural gas and propane to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company operates on a regulated utility model for its UGI Utilities segment, where it earns revenue based on the volume of gas sold and the distribution services provided. In addition, AmeriGas Partners generates income through the distribution of propane, with revenues driven by retail sales and rental income from propane tanks and cylinders. The company also benefits from long-term contracts and partnerships with suppliers and customers, enabling stable cash flows. Seasonal demand variations, especially in winter months, significantly influence revenue, along with regulatory frameworks that impact pricing structures.

UGI Financial Statement Overview

Summary

UGI demonstrates strong profitability improvements with growing margins and efficient cash flow management despite challenges in revenue growth. The high debt levels are a notable risk but are counterbalanced by solid returns on equity and improving cash flows, suggesting a resilient financial position in the regulated gas industry.

Income Statement

UGI's TTM revenue of $7.32 billion shows a modest growth of 1.5% from the previous annual revenue of $7.21 billion. The gross profit margin is strong at 48.9%, while the net profit margin improved significantly to 7.28% from 3.73%, indicating better cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 13.2% and 23.6% respectively, reflecting solid operational performance. However, revenue has declined from $10.11 billion in 2022, indicating potential market challenges.

Balance Sheet

UGI maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.40, which is typical for the industry but poses a risk if earnings falter. The return on equity is a robust 10.6%, up from 6.19%, showing efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 31.8%, indicating a balanced capital structure but slightly lower than the previous year, which might affect long-term stability.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow increased by 45.3% to $561 million, demonstrating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.61, suggesting solid earnings quality. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.05 indicates that the company is generating sufficient cash to cover its earnings. These metrics reflect a positive cash flow trend that supports future investments or debt reduction.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.32B	7.21B	8.93B	10.11B	7.45B	6.56B
Gross Profit	3.58B	3.68B	1.99B	4.13B	4.83B	3.41B
EBITDA	1.57B	1.33B	-886.00M	2.19B	2.94B	1.58B
Net Income	533.00M	269.00M	-1.50B	1.07B	1.47B	532.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.75B	15.10B	15.40B	17.57B	16.72B	13.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	426.00M	213.00M	241.00M	405.00M	855.00M	336.00M
Total Debt	7.03B	7.14B	7.25B	7.00B	6.82B	6.38B
Total Liabilities	10.72B	10.74B	11.01B	11.50B	11.19B	9.85B
Stockholders Equity	5.01B	4.34B	4.39B	6.07B	5.52B	4.13B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	561.00M	386.00M	133.00M	-88.00M	791.00M	447.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.39B	1.18B	1.11B	716.00M	1.48B	1.10B
Investing Cash Flow	-806.00M	-792.00M	-1.08B	-1.01B	-1.11B	-649.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-453.00M	-506.00M	-168.00M	-51.00M	166.00M	-635.00M

UGI Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 35.01
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UGI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 35.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.46, below the 50-day MA of 35.77, and above the 200-day MA of 32.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UGI.

UGI Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NJR	77 Outperform	$4.69B	11.56	18.03%	3.85%	21.88%	71.35%
UGI	74 Outperform	$7.48B	18.51	8.75%	4.28%	-0.52%	-39.42%
SR	71 Outperform	$4.52B	16.55	8.37%	4.06%	-6.65%	11.47%
CPK	71 Outperform	$2.92B	22.19	9.25%	2.10%	19.02%	20.13%
OGS	68 Neutral	$4.52B	17.99	8.24%	3.49%	13.43%	6.49%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$17.66B	18.13	5.33%	3.62%	7.33%	12.21%
SWX	65 Neutral	$5.58B	28.55	5.41%	3.17%	-10.07%	5.98%

UGI Corporate Events

UGI Corporation Amends Credit Agreement for New Loan

On August 6, 2025, UGI Corporation amended its Credit Agreement to establish a new $300 million senior secured revolving loan facility. This facility, which matures on August 5, 2026, is intended to finance cash considerations related to the conversion of the 2028 Notes and offers flexible borrowing options with interest rates tied to the company’s net leverage ratio. The loans are secured by the company’s equity in its Material Subsidiaries, with certain exceptions.

UGI Reports Q3 2025 Earnings and Asset Sales

UGI Corporation reported its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2025, showing a decrease in both GAAP and adjusted diluted earnings per share compared to the previous year. The company executed a strategic portfolio optimization initiative, generating $150 million from asset sales in its Global LPG businesses. Despite the quarterly earnings dip, UGI expects to meet the top end of its fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS guidance, highlighting the strength of its asset portfolio and operational improvements at AmeriGas.

UGI Secures $275 Million in Senior Notes Agreement

On July 18, 2025, UGI Utilities, Inc. entered into a Note Purchase Agreement for the private placement of $275 million in Senior Notes, with Series A and Series B maturing in 2030 and 2035, respectively. The proceeds from these notes will be used to refinance existing debt and for general corporate purposes. The agreement includes customary covenants and events of default, ensuring the company’s financial stability and operational compliance. This strategic financial move is expected to enhance UGI Utilities’ market position by securing long-term funding and maintaining its competitive edge in the utilities sector.

UGI Subsidiaries Issue $550M in Senior Notes

On May 30, 2025, AmeriGas Partners and AmeriGas Finance Corp., subsidiaries of UGI Corporation, issued $550 million in senior unsecured notes due 2030, with an interest rate of 9.500%. The proceeds from this issuance were used to repurchase and redeem all outstanding 5.875% Senior Notes due 2026, effectively releasing the issuers from their obligations under the previous indenture.

UGI Subsidiaries Announce Tender Offer Results

On May 28, 2025, UGI Corporation’s subsidiaries, AmeriGas Partners, L.P. and AmeriGas Finance Corp., announced the expiration and results of their tender offer for the 5.875% Senior Notes due 2026. The tender offer, which expired on May 27, 2025, saw approximately 83.3% of the notes tendered, amounting to $553,275,000. The settlement for the tendered notes is expected on May 30, 2025, with a total consideration of $1,010 for each $1,000 principal amount of notes tendered. This move reflects UGI’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its liquidity and debt profile.