ONE Gas (OGS)
NYSE:OGS
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ONE Gas
(NYSE:OGS)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$91.00
â–²(2.29% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/13/26
The score is driven primarily by steady underlying financial performance but tempered by pressured free cash flow, alongside weak technical momentum. Offsetting these risks, OGS screens attractively valued (low P/E with a solid dividend yield) and the latest earnings call reinforced guidance and operational resilience.
Positive Factors
Profitability & Margin Stability
ONE Gas operates a regulated distribution business whose margins have improved to historically resilient levels (TTM gross ~68%, net ~11.8%). Stable allowed returns and predictable cost pass‑throughs underpin durable earnings quality and support cashflow reliability through rate cycles.
Negative Factors
Negative Free Cash Flow
Capital spending has outpaced operating cash generation for multiple years, producing recurring negative FCF. That structural gap increases reliance on debt and equity programs (ATMs/forward sales) to fund growth and may pressure discretionary flexibility despite maintained dividend policy.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability & Margin Stability
ONE Gas operates a regulated distribution business whose margins have improved to historically resilient levels (TTM gross ~68%, net ~11.8%). Stable allowed returns and predictable cost pass‑throughs underpin durable earnings quality and support cashflow reliability through rate cycles.
Read all positive factors
ONE Gas (OGS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.22B
Dividend Yield3.45%
Average Volume (3M)381.14K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.5
Beta (1Y)0.16
Revenue Growth2.81%
EPS Growth7.01%
CountryUS
Employees3,900
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.45
Shares Outstanding62,762,530
10 Day Avg. Volume311,086
30 Day Avg. Volume381,141
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.47
Price to Book (P/B)1.35
Price to Sales (P/S)1.91
P/FCF Ratio-36.20
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.64
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.68
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.42
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.90
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$90.00Price Target Upside1.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)4.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.51B
ONE Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ONE Gas, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a regulated natural gas distribution utility company in the United States. The company operates through three divisions: Oklahoma Natural Gas, Kansas Gas Service, and Texas Gas Service. It...
How the Company Makes Money
ONE Gas makes money primarily through regulated utility operations. Its core revenue stream is the sale and delivery of natural gas to end-use customers on its distribution networks. In practice, customer bills typically include (1) a regulated “d...
ONE Gas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized resilient financial and operational performance despite an extraordinarily warm winter. Key positives include adjusted EPS growth (6% YoY), higher revenues from new rates (~$27M), meaningful storage-driven savings (~$98M), cost-of-capital improvements, strong safety recognition, ongoing large-load opportunities, and productivity gains from automation. Headwinds were primarily weather-related volume and cash-flow timing impacts, an 8.6% increase in O&M driven by workforce costs and line-locating, and a modest decline in other income. Management affirmed full-year guidance and described specific actions (capacity release, project timing flexibility, in-sourcing safety functions) to mitigate the weather impacts, suggesting challenges are manageable and largely timing-related.Positive Updates
Adjusted EPS and Net Income Growth
Adjusted net income for Q1 was $133.4 million (vs. $120.1 million a year ago, ~11.1% increase) and adjusted diluted EPS was $2.11 (up 6% year-over-year). Company affirmed 2026 guidance of adjusted net income $306M–$314M and adjusted EPS $4.83–$4.95.
Negative Updates
Extremely Warm Winter Reducing Volumes and Cash Flow
Q1 weather was ~25% warmer than the prior-year quarter (Texas and Oklahoma warmest since 1895; Kansas second warmest), reducing gas monetization from storage, depressing volumes and cash flows in the quarter and creating a storage-related cash flow timing effect that management expects to normalize later in the year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EPS and Net Income Growth
Adjusted net income for Q1 was $133.4 million (vs. $120.1 million a year ago, ~11.1% increase) and adjusted diluted EPS was $2.11 (up 6% year-over-year). Company affirmed 2026 guidance of adjusted net income $306M–$314M and adjusted EPS $4.83–$4.95.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ONE Gas affirmed 2026 guidance of adjusted net income $306–$314 million and adjusted diluted EPS $4.83–$4.95 (guidance did not assume any Fed rate cuts), supported by strong Q1 results of $133.4 million adjusted net income or $2.11 per diluted share (vs. $120.1M/$1.99 a year ago), roughly $27 million of Q1 revenue from new rates, depreciation & amortization down 6% y/y, interest expense down 9% y/y (about $3 million lower ex‑KGSS‑I), and Q1 O&M up ~8.6% y/y but expected to grow at a 3–4% CAGR over the company’s 5‑year plan; liquidity and capital metrics include $170 million of Q1 capital completed, an adjusted CFO‑to‑debt ratio of 19.1% for 2025, a $0.68 quarterly dividend, ~237,000 ATM forward shares sold (≈269,000 remaining) and potential net proceeds of ~$41.5 million if settled, while operational and growth metrics cited a 20% increase in storage capacity since Uri that saved ~$98 million vs. spot, storage‑related cash flows expected to normalize, >6,300 new meters installed through April, six late‑stage large‑load projects that could support ~3 GW and up to 1 Bcf/d (including a signed 20 MMcf/d transport), the 43‑mile/24‑inch Western Farmers pipeline targeted in‑service 2028 and a 1.6‑mile/12‑inch El Paso line due early Q3, line‑locating activity +8.5% with damages down 2%, and operational efficiency gains from AI exceeding 12,000 annualized labor hours saved.ONE Gas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.32B | 2.43B | 2.08B | 2.37B | 2.58B | 1.81B |
| Gross Profit | 1.58B | 1.43B | 775.11M | 729.08M | 646.65M | 583.91M |
| EBITDA | 785.18M | 781.52M | 703.17M | 666.90M | 574.25M | 514.28M |
| Net Income | 273.48M | 264.22M | 222.85M | 231.23M | 221.74M | 206.43M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.83B | 9.33B | 8.43B | 7.77B | 7.78B | 8.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 22.99M | 33.73M | 57.99M | 18.84M | 9.68M | 8.85M |
| Total Debt | 3.38B | 3.39B | 3.33B | 3.05B | 3.26B | 4.18B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.30B | 5.89B | 5.32B | 5.01B | 5.19B | 6.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.53B | 3.44B | 3.10B | 2.77B | 2.58B | 2.35B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -219.47M | -128.39M | -334.75M | 272.90M | 961.36M | -2.03B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 477.69M | 578.83M | 368.41M | 939.53M | 1.57B | -1.54B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -701.58M | -715.32M | -707.50M | -669.64M | -614.11M | -501.08M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 218.70M | 91.68M | 378.23M | -248.63M | -947.46M | 2.04B |
ONE Gas Technical Analysis
Negative
88.96
Price Trends
86.17
Negative
83.19
Negative
80.04
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.08
Positive
39.23
Neutral
13.45
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OGS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 88.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.52, above the 50-day MA of 86.17, and above the 200-day MA of 80.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.45 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OGS.
ONE Gas Risk Analysis
ONE Gas disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ONE Gas reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ONE Gas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $5.82B | 6.33 | 13.74% | 4.01% | 8.52% | -18.44% | |
66 Neutral | $6.44B | 11.37 | 11.86% | 3.07% | -48.15% | 105.44% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $5.22B | 10.53 | 8.20% | 3.45% | 2.81% | 7.01% | |
62 Neutral | $5.10B | 4.73 | 10.45% | 3.82% | 4.53% | 40.51% | |
62 Neutral | $7.41B | 3.76 | 12.77% | 3.92% | 0.52% | 20.56% | |
52 Neutral | $2.09B | 5.58 | 8.27% | 4.18% | 5.90% | 16.54% |
* Utilities Sector Average
OGS
ONE Gas
82.80
10.47
14.47%
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86.71
15.39
21.58%
NJR
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13.13
29.66%
NWN
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49.92
10.68
27.22%
SWX
Southwest Gas
89.66
22.63
33.76%
UGI
UGI
35.11
0.95
2.78%
ONE Gas Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
ONE Gas Highlights Strategy at AGA Financial Forum
Positive
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, ONE Gas announced it would participate in the American Gas Association Financial Forum taking place May 17–19, 2026, in Scottsdale, Arizona. Chief executive Robert S. McAnnally, president and chief operating officer Curtis D...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
ONE Gas Affirms 2026 Outlook and Declares Dividend
Positive
May 4, 2026
ONE Gas reported first-quarter 2026 net income of $128.7 million, or $2.04 per diluted share, up from $119.4 million a year earlier, with adjusted net income rising to $133.4 million despite a winter that was more than 20% warmer than normal. Oper...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
ONE Gas Schedules First-Quarter 2026 Earnings Release
Neutral
Apr 7, 2026
On April 7, 2026, ONE Gas, Inc. announced it will release its first-quarter 2026 financial results after the market close on Monday, May 4, 2026. The company’s executive management team will discuss the results on a conference call and live ...
Business Operations and Strategy
ONE Gas Plans Investor Conference Participation and Meetings
Neutral
Feb 24, 2026
On February 24, 2026, ONE Gas announced it would participate in three investor conferences in late February and early March, including the UBS Midwest Utilities Conference in Chicago on February 25, 2026. The company will also attend the Morgan St...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
ONE Gas Launches $225 Million At-The-Market Equity Program
Neutral
Feb 24, 2026
On February 23, 2026, ONE Gas, Inc. entered into an equity distribution agreement with a syndicate of major securities firms to offer and sell up to $225 million of its common stock from time to time. The shares may be sold through ordinary broker...
Shareholder Meetings
ONE Gas Sets 2026 Virtual-Only Annual Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
Feb 20, 2026
On Feb. 20, 2026, ONE Gas announced that its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders will be conducted exclusively as a virtual event on Thursday, May 21, 2026, at 10 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time, with an accompanying audio webcast available through the...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
ONE Gas Posts Strong Q4 Results, Raises 2026 Outlook
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
On February 18, 2026, ONE Gas reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income of $86.3 million, or $1.42 per diluted share, up from $77.0 million a year earlier, with adjusted EPS rising to $1.48. Full-year 2025 net income increased to $264.2 million, or ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
ONE Gas Announces Leadership Transition to Support Growth
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
On February 18, 2026, ONE Gas announced that senior vice president and chief operating officer Curtis L. Dinan will be promoted to president and chief operating officer effective March 1, 2026. Current president and chief executive officer Robert ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.