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ONE Gas (OGS)
NYSE:OGS
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ONE Gas (OGS) AI Stock Analysis

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OGS

ONE Gas

(NYSE:OGS)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$81.00
â–²(6.22% Upside)
ONE Gas's overall stock score reflects strong earnings call results and reasonable valuation, offset by challenges in cash flow and mixed technical indicators. The company's strategic positioning and regulatory progress are positive, but operational efficiency and cash flow management need improvement.
Positive Factors
Economic Growth
The company benefits from economic growth across their service territories, with residential growth being a strong avenue for margin expansion.
Operational Strategy
The proven management team is confident in executing their strategy despite no major regulatory catalysts expected in the near future.
Negative Factors
Interest Expenses
Higher interest expense is expected due to maturing lower-cost debt, which impacts short-term earnings estimates.
Investor Sentiment
Despite the positive outlook, OGS has had little traction with investors and is currently a Consensus Hold on the sell-side.

ONE Gas (OGS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

ONE Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionONE Gas, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a regulated natural gas distribution utility company in the United States. The company operates through three divisions: Oklahoma Natural Gas, Kansas Gas Service, and Texas Gas Service. It provides natural gas distribution services to 2.2 million customers in three states. It serves residential, commercial, and transportation customers. As of December 31, 2021, it operated approximately 41,600 miles of distribution mains; and 2,400 miles of transmission pipelines, as well as had 51.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas storage capacity. ONE Gas, Inc. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
How the Company Makes MoneyONE Gas generates revenue primarily through the distribution of natural gas to its customers. The company charges customers based on their natural gas consumption, which is measured through meters installed at their premises. Additionally, ONE Gas earns revenue from transportation services for moving natural gas through its pipeline network. The company also benefits from regulatory mechanisms that allow it to recover costs associated with infrastructure investments and maintenance. Significant partnerships with natural gas suppliers and local governments further enhance its ability to serve customers efficiently and secure favorable pricing, contributing to its overall profitability.

ONE Gas Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 3.29%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial and operational performance, with increased guidance and significant regulatory progress. Despite challenges such as increased operating expenses and weather-related impacts, the overall tone was optimistic due to robust growth and strategic positioning.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Financial Guidance
ONE Gas raised its full year 2025 net income guidance to between $261 million and $267 million, and earnings per diluted share between $4.32 and $4.42, reflecting robust growth and the positive impact of Texas House Bill 4384.
Improved Second Quarter Performance
Net income for the second quarter was $32 million or $0.53 per diluted share, an increase from $27.2 million or $0.48 in the same period last year. Revenues increased by approximately $21.1 million from new rates and $1.5 million from customer growth.
Regulatory Progress and Rate Approvals
Significant regulatory approvals, including a $41.1 million revenue increase from the Oklahoma Corporation Commission and various rate increases in Texas and Kansas, support continued growth and system investments.
Strategic Capital and Equity Positioning
Completed equity raises met 2025 equity needs and partially covered 2026 requirements, with forward sale agreements representing roughly 40% of the 5-year equity need.
Operational Resilience and Growth
Despite severe weather conditions, ONE Gas completed $190 million in capital projects and installed nearly 11,400 new meters, maintaining strong growth momentum.
Negative Updates
Increased Operating and Maintenance Expenses
Operating and maintenance expenses increased by 7.5% year-over-year in the second quarter, due to higher labor-related expenses and the timing of other expenses.
Weather-Related Challenges
Unusually wet conditions and severe flooding affected service territories, although no material service outages were reported.
Company Guidance
During the ONE Gas second quarter earnings call for fiscal year 2025, the company announced an increase in their full-year financial guidance, projecting net income between $261 million and $267 million, and earnings per diluted share between $4.32 and $4.42. This update, a 2.5% increase above the initial guidance midpoints, is attributed to strong performance in the first half of the year and the positive impact of Texas House Bill 4384, which supports system investment recovery. The second quarter net income was reported at $32 million or $0.53 per diluted share, a rise from the previous year's $27.2 million or $0.48 per share. Revenues saw an increase of $21.1 million due to new rates and $1.5 million from customer growth, despite a 7.5% rise in operating and maintenance expenses. Capital expenditures for 2025 are projected at approximately $750 million, with completed equity raises securing over $226 million in proceeds under forward agreements to support the capital plan. Additionally, the company is progressing on key regulatory matters, including a $41.1 million revenue increase approved by the Oklahoma Corporation Commission and a proposed $41.1 million rate increase in Texas, aimed at consolidating service areas into a single jurisdiction. The company continues to focus on maintaining system safety and reliability amid substantial growth, as evidenced by the installation of nearly 11,400 new meters in the first half of the year, reflecting a more than 9% year-over-year increase in new customer additions.

ONE Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary
ONE Gas demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability and a stable balance sheet. The company is on a positive growth trajectory, with increasing revenues and profitability margins. However, the high leverage and negative free cash flow highlight potential risks that need to be addressed to ensure long-term financial stability.
Income Statement
75
Positive
ONE Gas shows a solid financial performance with a consistent increase in gross profit margin and net profit margin over the years. The TTM data indicates a gross profit margin of 48.67% and a net profit margin of 10.75%, both of which are strong indicators of profitability. The revenue growth rate from the previous annual report to TTM is 8.48%, suggesting a positive growth trajectory. However, the EBIT margin has slightly decreased from 19.14% to 19.18% in the TTM, indicating stable operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.01 in the TTM, which is manageable but indicates a moderate level of leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is 7.63%, showing a reasonable return on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio stands at 38.24%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. However, the company's high debt levels could pose a risk if not managed effectively.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with free cash flow, which is negative in the TTM at -$161.64 million, although it has improved from the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.21, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio suggests that capital expenditures are significantly impacting cash reserves, which could be a concern if this trend continues.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.33B2.08B2.37B2.58B1.81B1.53B
Gross Profit1.25B775.11M729.08M646.65M583.91M561.71M
EBITDA750.89M703.17M666.90M574.25M514.28M493.33M
Net Income247.74M222.85M231.23M221.74M206.43M196.41M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets8.36B8.43B7.77B7.78B8.40B6.03B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments42.72M57.99M18.84M9.68M8.85M7.99M
Total Debt872.41M3.33B3.07B3.23B4.18B2.00B
Total Liabilities2.80B5.32B5.01B5.19B6.05B3.80B
Stockholders Equity3.18B3.10B2.77B2.58B2.35B2.23B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-137.81M-334.75M272.90M961.36M-2.03B-106.84M
Operating Cash Flow566.29M368.41M939.53M1.57B-1.54B364.50M
Investing Cash Flow-714.23M-707.50M-669.64M-614.11M-501.08M-470.37M
Financing Cash Flow158.19M378.23M-248.63M-947.46M2.04B96.01M

ONE Gas Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price76.26
Price Trends
50DMA
73.32
Positive
100DMA
74.31
Positive
200DMA
72.70
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.72
Negative
RSI
64.99
Neutral
STOCH
94.85
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OGS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 76.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.96, above the 50-day MA of 73.32, and above the 200-day MA of 72.70, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.85 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OGS.

ONE Gas Risk Analysis

ONE Gas disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ONE Gas reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

ONE Gas Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$4.77B11.6018.03%3.78%21.88%71.35%
74
Outperform
$2.94B22.269.25%2.09%19.02%20.13%
71
Outperform
$1.67B16.137.36%4.75%8.40%17.90%
68
Neutral
$4.55B18.108.24%3.48%13.43%6.49%
65
Neutral
$5.74B29.695.41%3.12%-10.07%5.98%
65
Neutral
$4.53B16.608.37%4.01%-6.65%11.47%
62
Neutral
HK$30.30B9.315.05%4.61%-3.25%1.36%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
OGS
ONE Gas
76.26
11.18
17.18%
CPK
Chesapeake Utilities
124.81
12.64
11.27%
SR
Spire
77.52
15.56
25.11%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
47.49
3.83
8.77%
NWN
Northwest Gas
40.83
4.03
10.95%
SWX
Southwest Gas
79.47
10.00
14.39%

ONE Gas Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
ONE Gas Secures $250 Million Term Loan Facility
Neutral
Aug 11, 2025

On August 11, 2025, ONE Gas, Inc. entered into a credit agreement with Bank of America, N.A. and other lenders for a $250 million unsecured term loan facility. The loan will be used for working capital, capital expenditures, acquisitions, mergers, and other corporate purposes, maturing in September 2026. This agreement includes various financial covenants and conditions, with potential impacts on the company’s financial operations and relationships with lenders, who have previously provided financial services to the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
ONE Gas Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Aug 5, 2025

On August 5, 2025, ONE Gas announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, reporting a net income of $32.0 million, up from $27.2 million in the same quarter of 2024. The company also increased its 2025 financial guidance, reflecting strong operational performance and effective cost management. Additionally, ONE Gas declared a quarterly dividend and highlighted regulatory activities, including rate cases and infrastructure program filings in Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma, which are expected to impact future revenues and service rates.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
ONE Gas Announces Quarterly Dividend Declaration
Neutral
Aug 4, 2025

On August 4, 2025, ONE Gas, Inc. announced that its board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of 67 cents per share of common stock, payable on September 3, 2025, to shareholders of record as of August 18, 2025. The company expects this dividend rate to continue through 2025, with an annual growth of 1% to 2% projected through 2029, and aims for a dividend payout ratio of approximately 55% to 65% of net income, subject to board approval.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
ONE Gas to Release Q2 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Jul 2, 2025

On July 2, 2025, ONE Gas announced it will release its second quarter 2025 financial results on August 5, 2025, after market close. The company will host a conference call the following day, August 6, 2025, to discuss the results, which will be accessible via their website. This announcement is part of ONE Gas’s ongoing efforts to maintain transparency with stakeholders and provide timely updates on its financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
ONE Gas Announces Senior Leadership Transition
Neutral
Jul 1, 2025

On July 1, 2025, ONE Gas announced the retirement of Joseph L. McCormick, its senior vice president, general counsel, and assistant secretary, effective October 1, 2025. Regina L. Gregory will succeed him, initially serving as a senior advisor from July 16, 2025, before assuming McCormick’s roles upon his retirement. McCormick has been a pivotal figure in the company for over 20 years, significantly influencing its legal and strategic direction. Gregory, with extensive experience in legal and corporate leadership, is expected to maintain the company’s high standards and contribute strategically to its future.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
ONE Gas to Participate in European Investment Forums
Neutral
Jun 9, 2025

ONE Gas announced on June 9, 2025, that it will participate in the American Gas Association and Jefferies Europe Mini-Forum on June 16-17, 2025, in London and Zurich. The company’s executives, including the CEO and CFO, will engage with the investment community, potentially enhancing the company’s visibility and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
ONE Gas to Present at Mizuho Mid-Cap Conference
Neutral
Jun 3, 2025

On June 3, 2025, ONE Gas announced its participation in the Mizuho Mid-Cap Utilities Conference in New York City on June 5, 2025. The company’s executives, including the CEO and CFO, will engage with the investment community, highlighting ONE Gas’s strategic positioning and possibly impacting investor perceptions and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
ONE Gas Announces Key Decisions at Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
May 28, 2025

ONE Gas held its annual shareholder meeting on May 22, 2025, where several key decisions were made. The election of directors resulted in the appointment of nine individuals to serve one-year terms, and the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, was ratified. Additionally, the advisory vote on executive compensation was approved by a majority of the shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
ONE Gas Enters Forward Sale Agreement with JPMorgan
Positive
May 12, 2025

On May 8, 2025, ONE Gas, Inc. entered into a forward sale agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank for 2,500,000 shares of its common stock, with settlement expected by December 31, 2026. Additionally, the company signed an underwriting agreement with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC for a public offering of the same number of shares, with an option for an additional 375,000 shares, marking a strategic move to enhance its financial flexibility and market presence.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 07, 2025