ONE Gas (OGS)
NYSE:OGS
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ONE Gas
(NYSE:OGS)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$95.00
â–²(11.83% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/20/26
The score is driven by strong technical trend and a positive earnings-call outlook (higher 2026 guidance and reiterated long-term growth), supported by a reasonable valuation with a ~3.1% yield. The main limiter is financial performance, where recurring negative free cash flow in the last two years weakens cash-quality despite improved leverage in 2025.
Positive Factors
Regulated utility with steady customer growth
ONE Gas operates in a regulated framework with predictable rate-based returns and consistent customer additions (~23k residential customers/year). Low bill CAGR (~2%) preserves affordability, supporting durable demand, stable revenue growth and predictable cash flows over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Weak free cash flow and volatile cash generation
Recent negative free cash flow despite accounting profits indicates earnings are not fully converting to cash. Persistent negative FCF increases reliance on external financing for capex and dividends, tightening liquidity cushions and raising execution and refinancing risk if adverse conditions persist.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated utility with steady customer growth
ONE Gas operates in a regulated framework with predictable rate-based returns and consistent customer additions (~23k residential customers/year). Low bill CAGR (~2%) preserves affordability, supporting durable demand, stable revenue growth and predictable cash flows over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
ONE Gas (OGS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.33B
Dividend Yield3.45%
Average Volume (3M)381.14K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.6
Beta (1Y)0.14
Revenue Growth15.06%
EPS Growth12.27%
CountryUS
Employees3,900
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.48
Shares Outstanding62,692,574
10 Day Avg. Volume311,086
30 Day Avg. Volume381,141
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.47
Price to Book (P/B)1.35
Price to Sales (P/S)1.91
P/FCF Ratio-36.20
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.65
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.61
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.21
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$87.00Price Target Upside2.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)4.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.61B
ONE Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ONE Gas, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a regulated natural gas distribution utility company in the United States. The company operates through three divisions: Oklahoma Natural Gas, Kansas Gas Service, and Texas Gas Service. It...
How the Company Makes Money
ONE Gas generates revenue primarily through the sale and distribution of natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company's revenue model is based on the regulated utility framework, where it earns income through the d...
ONE Gas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational resilience (notably during Winter Storm Fern), solid full-year and quarterly financial performance with double-digit improvements in adjusted and GAAP metrics, clear growth projects and continued customer additions, and affirmed credit ratings. The company also introduced non-GAAP adjustments to reflect regulatory accounting impacts from Texas House Bill 4384, which increased the persistent delta between regulatory and GAAP results and introduces some complexity and timing differences for cash recoveries. O&M was slightly above guidance due to earlier execution of projects, and some legislative/regulatory changes (Kansas GSRS) remain uncertain. Overall, positive operational and financial momentum outweighs the manageable accounting and timing challenges described.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
2025 GAAP net income of $264 million ($4.37 per diluted share) versus $223 million ($3.91) in 2024, an increase of ~18% in net income and ~11.8% in EPS. 2025 adjusted net income was $271 million ($4.48) versus $225 million ($3.94) in 2024, up ~20.4% in adjusted net income and ~13.7% in adjusted EPS.
Negative Updates
Increased O&M Expense
Full-year O&M expense rose approximately 5% versus 2024, slightly above the company's long-term 4% CAGR guidance. Management attributes part of the increase to executing some projects earlier than planned.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
2025 GAAP net income of $264 million ($4.37 per diluted share) versus $223 million ($3.91) in 2024, an increase of ~18% in net income and ~11.8% in EPS. 2025 adjusted net income was $271 million ($4.48) versus $225 million ($3.94) in 2024, up ~20.4% in adjusted net income and ~13.7% in adjusted EPS.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ONE Gas said it will provide 2026 guidance on its new adjusted basis, expecting adjusted net income of $306 million to $314 million and adjusted EPS of $4.83 to $4.95 (using adjusted 2025 actuals of $271 million and $4.48 per share; GAAP 2025 net income was $264 million or $4.37), and reiterated long‑term adjusted net income growth of 7%–9% and adjusted EPS growth of 5%–7% (implying a 2030 adjusted EPS midpoint of roughly $6); the company noted the expanding Texas accounting delta (≈$2M/ $0.03 in 2024, ≈$7M/ $0.11 in 2025, and an anticipated ≈$12M/ $0.18—or ~4% of consolidated EPS—in 2026) and said it will report adjusted figures going forward, while also citing 2025 capex of $760 million (including $170 million for growth and a ~$120 million pipeline), full‑year O&M up ~5% (versus a 4% CAGR target and a long‑term 3%–4% O&M CAGR outlook), roughly 23,000 new residential customers per year, cumulative residential bill CAGR just under 2%, storage >60 Bcf (up ~20%), peak delivery >3 Bcf on the winter storm peak day, S&P A‑/Moody’s A3 ratings affirmed, and an assumption of no further Fed rate cuts in 2026.ONE Gas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.43B | 2.08B | 2.37B | 2.58B | 1.81B |
| Gross Profit | 1.43B | 775.11M | 729.08M | 646.65M | 583.91M |
| EBITDA | 781.52M | 703.17M | 666.90M | 574.25M | 514.28M |
| Net Income | 264.22M | 222.85M | 231.23M | 221.74M | 206.43M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.33B | 8.43B | 7.77B | 7.78B | 8.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 33.73M | 57.99M | 18.84M | 9.68M | 8.85M |
| Total Debt | 3.39B | 3.33B | 3.05B | 3.26B | 4.18B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.89B | 5.32B | 5.01B | 5.19B | 6.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.44B | 3.10B | 2.77B | 2.58B | 2.35B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -128.39M | -334.75M | 272.90M | 961.36M | -2.03B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 578.83M | 368.41M | 939.53M | 1.57B | -1.54B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -715.32M | -707.50M | -669.64M | -614.11M | -501.08M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 91.68M | 378.23M | -248.63M | -947.46M | 2.04B |
ONE Gas Technical Analysis
Neutral
84.95
Price Trends
83.46
Positive
81.08
Positive
77.79
Positive
Market Momentum
0.31
Positive
48.17
Neutral
36.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OGS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 84.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 86.32, above the 50-day MA of 83.46, and above the 200-day MA of 77.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OGS.
ONE Gas Risk Analysis
ONE Gas disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ONE Gas reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ONE Gas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $5.33B | 17.59 | 8.13% | 3.45% | 15.06% | 12.27% | |
70 Outperform | $6.27B | 21.17 | 11.62% | 3.07% | -23.15% | 157.45% | |
68 Neutral | $2.20B | 16.85 | 7.78% | 4.18% | 11.27% | 20.04% | |
67 Neutral | $5.36B | 12.84 | 8.27% | 3.82% | -4.50% | 2.49% | |
66 Neutral | $5.51B | 9.48 | 13.39% | 4.01% | 13.94% | 13.93% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $7.87B | 6.77 | 12.21% | 3.92% | 1.10% | 140.04% |
* Utilities Sector Average
OGS
ONE Gas
84.95
11.89
16.27%
SR
Spire
90.68
15.51
20.63%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
54.59
7.43
15.75%
NWN
Northwest Gas
52.83
11.98
29.31%
SWX
Southwest Gas
86.71
17.15
24.66%
UGI
UGI
36.67
4.94
15.56%
ONE Gas Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
ONE Gas Posts Strong Q4 Results, Raises 2026 Outlook
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
On February 18, 2026, ONE Gas reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income of $86.3 million, or $1.42 per diluted share, up from $77.0 million a year earlier, with adjusted EPS rising to $1.48. Full-year 2025 net income increased to $264.2 million, or ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
ONE Gas Announces Leadership Transition to Support Growth
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
On February 18, 2026, ONE Gas announced that senior vice president and chief operating officer Curtis L. Dinan will be promoted to president and chief operating officer effective March 1, 2026. Current president and chief executive officer Robert ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
ONE Gas Sets 2025 Results Release, 2026 Earnings Calendar
Neutral
Jan 22, 2026
On January 22, 2026, ONE Gas announced it will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results after the market closes on February 18, 2026, followed by a conference call and live webcast with executive management on February 19, 2...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
ONE Gas Announces Modest Dividend Increase and Outlook
Positive
Jan 20, 2026
On January 20, 2026, ONE Gas’ board of directors increased the company’s first-quarter 2026 dividend by one cent to 68 cents per share, equivalent to an annualized dividend of $2.72 per share, payable on March 6, 2026 to shareholders o...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
ONE Gas Executes Forward Equity Agreements to Raise Capital
Positive
Dec 29, 2025
ONE Gas, Inc., a U.S. regulated natural gas utility, has entered into a series of forward sale agreements to issue a total of 2,633,700 shares of common stock by December 29, 2025. Under these agreements with Bank of America, N.A. and JPMorgan Cha...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
ONE Gas expands commercial paper program to boost liquidity
Positive
Dec 19, 2025
On December 17, 2025, ONE Gas increased the size of its unsecured commercial paper program, raising the maximum aggregate principal amount of notes outstanding at any time from $1.35 billion to $1.50 billion, while leaving all other terms and cond...
Business Operations and Strategy
ONE Gas launches major Oklahoma natural gas pipeline project
Positive
Dec 18, 2025
On December 18, 2025, ONE Gas, Inc. announced a joint infrastructure initiative to build a 43-mile, large-diameter natural gas pipeline in southeast Oklahoma to support economic growth and enhance energy reliability in the region. The $150–$...
Business Operations and Strategy
ONE Gas to Attend Investor Conferences in December
Neutral
Dec 2, 2025
On December 2, 2025, ONE Gas announced its participation in several investor conferences in New York City, scheduled for December 8-10, 2025. Key executives, including the CEO, CFO, and COO, will engage with the investment community, with conferen...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
ONE Gas Raises 2026 Financial Guidance and EPS Growth
Positive
Dec 1, 2025
On December 1, 2025, ONE Gas announced its 2026 financial guidance, raising its long-term diluted earnings per share growth rate to 5% to 7%. The company expects 2026 net income between $294 million and $302 million, with capital investments prima...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.