ONE Gas (OGS)
NYSE:OGS
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ONE Gas
(NYSE:OGS)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$88.00
â–¼(-1.08% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/28/26
The score is driven primarily by steady profitability and improved leverage, but it is held back by negative recent free cash flow and soft revenue. Valuation is a clear positive (low P/E and solid dividend yield), while technicals show weak near-term momentum. Earnings call tone was constructive with reaffirmed guidance and Q1 growth despite weather-related headwinds.
Positive Factors
Regulated business model and rate recovery
Operating as a state-regulated natural gas distributor provides predictable, durable cash flows because revenues and returns are set through regulatory proceedings and cost-recovery mechanisms. This structural rate-base model supports steady earnings, capital recovery and dividend consistency over multi-year horizons.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow in recent years
Sustained negative free cash flow implies the company is investing ahead of internally generated cash, increasing reliance on external financing for capex and dividends. Over 2–6 months this raises refinancing and liquidity considerations, and limits unlevered flexibility for opportunistic investments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated business model and rate recovery
Operating as a state-regulated natural gas distributor provides predictable, durable cash flows because revenues and returns are set through regulatory proceedings and cost-recovery mechanisms. This structural rate-base model supports steady earnings, capital recovery and dividend consistency over multi-year horizons.
Read all positive factors
ONE Gas (OGS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.78B
Dividend Yield3.45%
Average Volume (3M)381.14K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.5
Beta (1Y)0.15
Revenue Growth2.81%
EPS Growth7.01%
CountryUS
Employees3,900
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.45
Shares Outstanding62,762,530
10 Day Avg. Volume311,086
30 Day Avg. Volume381,141
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.47
Price to Book (P/B)1.35
Price to Sales (P/S)1.91
P/FCF Ratio-36.20
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.72
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.54
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.49
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$89.00Price Target Upside0.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)4.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.51B
ONE Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ONE Gas, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, functions as a regulated natural gas utility across the United States. Its operations are structured into three distinct divisions: Oklahoma Natural Gas, Kansas Gas Service, and Texas Gas Service...
How the Company Makes Money
ONE Gas makes money primarily through regulated utility operations. Its core revenue stream is the sale and delivery of natural gas to end-use customers on its distribution networks. In practice, customer bills typically include (1) a regulated “d...
ONE Gas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized resilient financial and operational performance despite an extraordinarily warm winter. Key positives include adjusted EPS growth (6% YoY), higher revenues from new rates (~$27M), meaningful storage-driven savings (~$98M), cost-of-capital improvements, strong safety recognition, ongoing large-load opportunities, and productivity gains from automation. Headwinds were primarily weather-related volume and cash-flow timing impacts, an 8.6% increase in O&M driven by workforce costs and line-locating, and a modest decline in other income. Management affirmed full-year guidance and described specific actions (capacity release, project timing flexibility, in-sourcing safety functions) to mitigate the weather impacts, suggesting challenges are manageable and largely timing-related.Positive Updates
Adjusted EPS and Net Income Growth
Adjusted net income for Q1 was $133.4 million (vs. $120.1 million a year ago, ~11.1% increase) and adjusted diluted EPS was $2.11 (up 6% year-over-year). Company affirmed 2026 guidance of adjusted net income $306M–$314M and adjusted EPS $4.83–$4.95.
Negative Updates
Extremely Warm Winter Reducing Volumes and Cash Flow
Q1 weather was ~25% warmer than the prior-year quarter (Texas and Oklahoma warmest since 1895; Kansas second warmest), reducing gas monetization from storage, depressing volumes and cash flows in the quarter and creating a storage-related cash flow timing effect that management expects to normalize later in the year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EPS and Net Income Growth
Adjusted net income for Q1 was $133.4 million (vs. $120.1 million a year ago, ~11.1% increase) and adjusted diluted EPS was $2.11 (up 6% year-over-year). Company affirmed 2026 guidance of adjusted net income $306M–$314M and adjusted EPS $4.83–$4.95.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ONE Gas affirmed 2026 guidance of adjusted net income $306–$314 million and adjusted diluted EPS $4.83–$4.95 (guidance did not assume any Fed rate cuts), supported by strong Q1 results of $133.4 million adjusted net income or $2.11 per diluted share (vs. $120.1M/$1.99 a year ago), roughly $27 million of Q1 revenue from new rates, depreciation & amortization down 6% y/y, interest expense down 9% y/y (about $3 million lower ex‑KGSS‑I), and Q1 O&M up ~8.6% y/y but expected to grow at a 3–4% CAGR over the company’s 5‑year plan; liquidity and capital metrics include $170 million of Q1 capital completed, an adjusted CFO‑to‑debt ratio of 19.1% for 2025, a $0.68 quarterly dividend, ~237,000 ATM forward shares sold (≈269,000 remaining) and potential net proceeds of ~$41.5 million if settled, while operational and growth metrics cited a 20% increase in storage capacity since Uri that saved ~$98 million vs. spot, storage‑related cash flows expected to normalize, >6,300 new meters installed through April, six late‑stage large‑load projects that could support ~3 GW and up to 1 Bcf/d (including a signed 20 MMcf/d transport), the 43‑mile/24‑inch Western Farmers pipeline targeted in‑service 2028 and a 1.6‑mile/12‑inch El Paso line due early Q3, line‑locating activity +8.5% with damages down 2%, and operational efficiency gains from AI exceeding 12,000 annualized labor hours saved.ONE Gas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.32B | 2.43B | 2.08B | 2.37B | 2.58B | 1.81B |
| Gross Profit | 1.58B | 1.43B | 775.11M | 729.08M | 646.65M | 583.91M |
| EBITDA | 785.18M | 781.52M | 703.17M | 666.90M | 574.25M | 514.28M |
| Net Income | 273.48M | 264.22M | 222.85M | 231.23M | 221.74M | 206.43M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.83B | 9.33B | 8.43B | 7.77B | 7.78B | 8.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 22.99M | 33.73M | 57.99M | 18.84M | 9.68M | 8.85M |
| Total Debt | 3.38B | 3.39B | 3.33B | 3.05B | 3.26B | 4.18B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.30B | 5.89B | 5.32B | 5.01B | 5.19B | 6.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.53B | 3.44B | 3.10B | 2.77B | 2.58B | 2.35B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -219.47M | -128.39M | -334.75M | 272.90M | 961.36M | -2.03B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 477.69M | 578.83M | 368.41M | 939.53M | 1.57B | -1.54B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -701.58M | -715.32M | -707.50M | -669.64M | -614.11M | -501.08M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 218.70M | 91.68M | 378.23M | -248.63M | -947.46M | 2.04B |
ONE Gas Technical Analysis
Negative
88.96
Price Trends
84.25
Negative
83.60
Negative
80.49
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.29
Positive
35.19
Neutral
15.24
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OGS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 88.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 79.88, above the 50-day MA of 84.25, and above the 200-day MA of 80.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.24 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OGS.
ONE Gas Risk Analysis
ONE Gas disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ONE Gas reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ONE Gas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $4.78B | 17.50 | 8.20% | 3.45% | 2.81% | 7.01% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $5.50B | 16.09 | 13.74% | 4.01% | 8.52% | -18.44% | |
65 Neutral | $7.45B | 11.65 | 12.77% | 3.92% | 0.52% | 20.56% | |
62 Neutral | $4.60B | 12.82 | 10.45% | 3.82% | 4.53% | 40.51% | |
58 Neutral | $6.43B | 13.85 | 11.86% | 3.07% | -48.15% | 105.44% | |
57 Neutral | $2.07B | 16.39 | 8.27% | 4.18% | 5.90% | 16.54% |
* Utilities Sector Average
OGS
ONE Gas
76.09
4.58
6.40%
SR
Spire
77.84
7.41
10.51%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
54.48
11.28
26.10%
NWN
Northwest Gas
49.28
10.68
27.68%
SWX
Southwest Gas
88.02
17.54
24.89%
UGI
UGI
34.77
-0.34
-0.97%
ONE Gas Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
ONE Gas Shareholders Reelect Board, Support Governance Measures
Positive
May 27, 2026
At its annual meeting of shareholders held on May 21, 2026, ONE Gas shareholders elected eight directors, including President and CEO Robert S. McAnnally, to one-year terms expiring at the 2027 annual meeting, reflecting broad investor support for...
Business Operations and Strategy
ONE Gas Highlights Strategy at Bank of America Conference
Positive
May 26, 2026
On May 26, 2026, ONE Gas, Inc. announced it would participate in the Bank of America Power, Utilities and Cleantech Conference scheduled for May 27, 2026, in New York City, underscoring its engagement with the broader utilities and energy transiti...
Business Operations and Strategy
ONE Gas Highlights Strategy at AGA Financial Forum
Positive
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, ONE Gas announced it would participate in the American Gas Association Financial Forum taking place May 17–19, 2026, in Scottsdale, Arizona. Chief executive Robert S. McAnnally, president and chief operating officer Curtis D...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
ONE Gas Affirms 2026 Outlook and Declares Dividend
Positive
May 4, 2026
ONE Gas reported first-quarter 2026 net income of $128.7 million, or $2.04 per diluted share, up from $119.4 million a year earlier, with adjusted net income rising to $133.4 million despite a winter that was more than 20% warmer than normal. Oper...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
ONE Gas Schedules First-Quarter 2026 Earnings Release
Neutral
Apr 7, 2026
On April 7, 2026, ONE Gas, Inc. announced it will release its first-quarter 2026 financial results after the market close on Monday, May 4, 2026. The company’s executive management team will discuss the results on a conference call and live ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.