ONE Gas (OGS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.43B
• Dividend Yield: 3.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 728.03K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.26
• Revenue Growth: 7.73%
• EPS Growth: 2.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,900
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Regulated Gas
• EPS (TTM): 1.98
• Shares Outstanding: 59,930,626
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 619,962
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 728,031
• PEG Ratio: -3.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.27
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -11.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.37
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.43
• 1Y Price Target: $76.83
• Price Target Upside: 5.83% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $78.00 ▲(7.44%Upside)

ONE Gas exhibits strong profitability and a stable financial position, but faces challenges with cash flow and high leverage. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum with the stock trading below key moving averages. Valuation is fair with an attractive dividend yield. Recent corporate events enhance financial flexibility, and positive earnings call sentiment contributes to a stable outlook.

Positive Factors

Economic Growth

The company benefits from economic growth across their service territories, with residential growth being a strong avenue for margin expansion.

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts

OGS has been upgraded to Buy due to its defensive characteristics and potential upside from Federal Reserve rate cuts and economic slowdown.

Natural Gas Affordability

OGS is capitalizing on the affordability of natural gas, which is significantly cheaper than electricity, driving customer affordability and investment planning.

Negative Factors

Interest Expenses

Higher interest expense is expected due to maturing lower-cost debt, which impacts short-term earnings estimates.

Investor Traction

Despite the positive outlook, OGS has had little traction with investors and is currently a Consensus Hold on the sell-side.

Valuation

Shares already trading near fair value estimate, leading to a hold recommendation.

ONE Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ONE Gas, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a regulated natural gas distribution utility company in the United States. The company operates through three divisions: Oklahoma Natural Gas, Kansas Gas Service, and Texas Gas Service. It provides natural gas distribution services to 2.2 million customers in three states. It serves residential, commercial, and transportation customers. As of December 31, 2021, it operated approximately 41,600 miles of distribution mains; and 2,400 miles of transmission pipelines, as well as had 51.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas storage capacity. ONE Gas, Inc. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

How the Company Makes Money

ONE Gas makes money primarily through the distribution and sale of natural gas to its customers. As a regulated utility, the company earns revenue by charging customers for the natural gas they consume, as well as for the transportation and delivery of gas through its pipelines. The rates charged are subject to regulatory approval, which ensures that they are fair and sufficient to cover the company's costs while allowing for a reasonable return on investment. Additionally, ONE Gas may engage in infrastructure projects or partnerships that help expand or enhance its service capabilities, thereby contributing to its revenue growth. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as natural gas prices, customer demand, regulatory changes, and operational efficiency.

ONE Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ONE Gas demonstrates strong profitability and operational efficiency with solid margins. However, challenges with cash flow and high leverage pose potential risks. The balance sheet shows moderate stability, but there's room for improvement in reducing debt levels.

Income Statement

ONE Gas shows solid profit margins with a TTM gross profit margin of 48.67% and a net profit margin of 10.75%. Revenue has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decrease in annual revenue growth, but TTM figures indicate a positive trend with a revenue increase. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong, indicating efficient operations and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.01, signaling significant leverage. However, the equity ratio of 38.24% shows a reasonable level of financial stability. The return on equity is respectable at 7.63%, reflecting moderate effectiveness in using equity to generate profits.

Cash Flow

ONE Gas faces challenges in cash flow, with negative free cash flow in the TTM period. The free cash flow growth rate is improving compared to previous periods but remains a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 2.21, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.26B	2.08B	2.37B	2.58B	1.81B	1.53B
	Gross Profit
1.10B	775.11M	729.08M	646.65M	583.91M	561.71M
	EBIT
433.68M	399.04M	377.59M	349.96M	310.26M	303.52M
	EBITDA
666.01M	703.17M	666.90M	574.25M	514.28M	493.33M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
242.95M	222.85M	231.23M	221.74M	206.43M	196.41M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
18.84M	57.99M	18.84M	9.68M	8.85M	7.99M
	Total Assets
7.98B	8.43B	7.77B	7.78B	8.40B	6.03B
	Total Debt
3.07B	3.33B	3.07B	3.23B	4.18B	2.00B
	Net Debt
3.03B	3.27B	3.03B	3.22B	4.17B	1.99B
	Total Liabilities
5.01B	5.32B	5.01B	5.19B	6.05B	3.80B
	Stockholders Equity
2.77B	3.10B	2.77B	2.58B	2.35B	2.23B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-161.64M	-334.75M	272.90M	961.36M	-2.03B	-106.84M
	Operating Cash Flow
537.61M	368.41M	939.53M	1.57B	-1.54B	364.50M
	Investing Cash Flow
-709.36M	-707.50M	-669.64M	-614.11M	-501.08M	-470.37M
	Financing Cash Flow
178.47M	378.23M	-248.63M	-947.46M	2.04B	96.01M

ONE Gas Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 72.60
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OGS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 72.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 74.31, below the 50-day MA of 75.23, and above the 200-day MA of 72.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OGS.

ONE Gas Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SR	73 Outperform	$4.32B	18.07	7.30%	4.34%	-7.10%	2.54%
NJR	71 Outperform	$4.50B	10.82	17.83%	4.03%	20.30%	63.69%
NWN	71 Outperform	$1.62B	15.77	7.36%	4.93%	3.88%	11.80%
SWX	69 Neutral	$5.22B	22.96	6.49%	3.42%	-10.78%	16.27%
CPK	67 Neutral	$2.79B	22.10	9.04%	2.14%	20.41%	13.64%
OGS	65 Neutral	$4.43B	17.54	8.08%	3.69%	7.73%	2.36%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$8.62B	10.39	4.24%	4.63%	4.07%	-13.04%

ONE Gas Corporate Events

ONE Gas to Participate in European Investment Forums

ONE Gas announced on June 9, 2025, that it will participate in the American Gas Association and Jefferies Europe Mini-Forum on June 16-17, 2025, in London and Zurich. The company’s executives, including the CEO and CFO, will engage with the investment community, potentially enhancing the company’s visibility and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

ONE Gas to Present at Mizuho Mid-Cap Conference

On June 3, 2025, ONE Gas announced its participation in the Mizuho Mid-Cap Utilities Conference in New York City on June 5, 2025. The company’s executives, including the CEO and CFO, will engage with the investment community, highlighting ONE Gas’s strategic positioning and possibly impacting investor perceptions and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

ONE Gas Announces Key Decisions at Shareholder Meeting

ONE Gas held its annual shareholder meeting on May 22, 2025, where several key decisions were made. The election of directors resulted in the appointment of nine individuals to serve one-year terms, and the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, was ratified. Additionally, the advisory vote on executive compensation was approved by a majority of the shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

ONE Gas Enters Forward Sale Agreement with JPMorgan

On May 8, 2025, ONE Gas, Inc. entered into a forward sale agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank for 2,500,000 shares of its common stock, with settlement expected by December 31, 2026. Additionally, the company signed an underwriting agreement with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC for a public offering of the same number of shares, with an option for an additional 375,000 shares, marking a strategic move to enhance its financial flexibility and market presence.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

ONE Gas Announces Public Offering of Common Stock

On May 8, 2025, ONE Gas, Inc. announced its plan to conduct a public offering of 2,500,000 shares of its common stock. The company intends to enter into a forward sale agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank and grant an option to purchase an additional 375,000 shares. This move is expected to provide financial flexibility for general corporate purposes, including debt repayment and investments, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

ONE Gas Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results

On May 5, 2025, ONE Gas announced its first quarter financial results, reporting a net income of $119.4 million, an increase from the previous year. The company expects to achieve the upper half of its 2025 financial guidance and declared a quarterly dividend of 67 cents per share, payable on June 3, 2025. Despite colder weather, the impact on income was mitigated by regulatory mechanisms. The company also highlighted ongoing regulatory activities, including rate increase requests in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, and plans for significant capital investments in system integrity and expansion projects.

ONE Gas to Attend AGA Financial Forum

On April 17, 2025, ONE Gas announced its participation in the American Gas Association Financial Forum scheduled for May 18-20, 2025, in Marco Island, Florida. Key executives will engage with the investment community, and the materials from the conference will be available on the company’s website. This participation underscores ONE Gas’s commitment to maintaining transparency and engagement with investors, potentially enhancing its market presence and stakeholder relations.

ONE Gas to Announce Q1 2025 Financial Results

On April 8, 2025, ONE Gas announced it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 5, 2025, after market close, followed by a conference call on May 6, 2025. The call will be accessible via the company’s website, providing stakeholders an opportunity to engage with the executive management team regarding the company’s performance and future outlook.