ONE Gas (OGS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.38B
• Dividend Yield: 3.65%
• Average Volume (3M): 507.10K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.24
• Revenue Growth: 7.73%
• EPS Growth: 2.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,900
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 77
• Industry: Regulated Gas
• EPS (TTM): 1.98
• Shares Outstanding: 59,930,626
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 398,326
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 507,097
• PEG Ratio: 1.93
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.31
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -27.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.73
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.10
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.97
• 1Y Price Target: $75.40
• Price Target Upside: 3.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $81.00 ▲(11.07%Upside)

ONE Gas shows strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, which are significant strengths. While technical analysis and valuation indicate a stable but fairly valued stock, corporate events add strategic growth potential. However, high leverage and negative free cash flow pose risks that could impact future stability.

Positive Factors

Economic Growth

The company benefits from economic growth across their service territories, with residential growth being a strong avenue for margin expansion.

Financial Strategy

With strategic financial planning, OGS has addressed long-term capital needs, mitigating risks and ensuring strategic flexibility.

Negative Factors

Interest Expenses

Higher interest expense is expected due to maturing lower-cost debt, which impacts short-term earnings estimates.

Investor Sentiment

Despite the positive outlook, OGS has had little traction with investors and is currently a Consensus Hold on the sell-side.

ONE Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ONE Gas, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a regulated natural gas distribution utility company in the United States. The company operates through three divisions: Oklahoma Natural Gas, Kansas Gas Service, and Texas Gas Service. It provides natural gas distribution services to 2.2 million customers in three states. It serves residential, commercial, and transportation customers. As of December 31, 2021, it operated approximately 41,600 miles of distribution mains; and 2,400 miles of transmission pipelines, as well as had 51.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas storage capacity. ONE Gas, Inc. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

How the Company Makes Money

ONE Gas makes money through its regulated natural gas distribution services. The company's primary revenue stream comes from the sale and delivery of natural gas to its residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation customers. As a regulated utility, ONE Gas's rates and services are subject to approval by state regulatory commissions, which ensures the company can recover its costs and earn a reasonable return on its investments. Additionally, the company may engage in infrastructure development and maintenance projects, which can also be factored into its rate base, contributing to its revenue. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as customer growth, rate adjustments, regulatory approvals, and operational efficiencies. Significant partnerships with state regulatory bodies and local communities also play a role in sustaining and enhancing its revenue streams.

ONE Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ONE Gas demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability and a stable balance sheet. The company is on a positive growth trajectory, with increasing revenues and profitability margins. However, the high leverage and negative free cash flow highlight potential risks that need to be addressed to ensure long-term financial stability.

Income Statement

ONE Gas shows a solid financial performance with a consistent increase in gross profit margin and net profit margin over the years. The TTM data indicates a gross profit margin of 48.67% and a net profit margin of 10.75%, both of which are strong indicators of profitability. The revenue growth rate from the previous annual report to TTM is 8.48%, suggesting a positive growth trajectory. However, the EBIT margin has slightly decreased from 19.14% to 19.18% in the TTM, indicating stable operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.01 in the TTM, which is manageable but indicates a moderate level of leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is 7.63%, showing a reasonable return on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio stands at 38.24%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. However, the company's high debt levels could pose a risk if not managed effectively.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with free cash flow, which is negative in the TTM at -$161.64 million, although it has improved from the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.21, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio suggests that capital expenditures are significantly impacting cash reserves, which could be a concern if this trend continues.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.08B	2.37B	2.58B	1.81B	1.53B
Gross Profit	775.11M	729.08M	646.65M	583.91M	561.71M
EBITDA	703.17M	666.90M	574.25M	514.28M	493.33M
Net Income	222.85M	231.23M	221.74M	206.43M	196.41M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.43B	7.77B	7.78B	8.40B	6.03B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	57.99M	18.84M	9.68M	8.85M	7.99M
Total Debt	3.33B	3.07B	3.23B	4.18B	2.00B
Total Liabilities	5.32B	5.01B	5.19B	6.05B	3.80B
Stockholders Equity	3.10B	2.77B	2.58B	2.35B	2.23B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-334.75M	272.90M	961.36M	-2.03B	-106.84M
Operating Cash Flow	368.41M	939.53M	1.57B	-1.54B	364.50M
Investing Cash Flow	-707.50M	-669.64M	-614.11M	-501.08M	-470.37M
Financing Cash Flow	378.23M	-248.63M	-947.46M	2.04B	96.01M

ONE Gas Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 72.93
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OGS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 72.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.03, below the 50-day MA of 73.41, and above the 200-day MA of 72.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OGS.

ONE Gas Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CPK	76 Outperform	$2.83B	22.46	9.04%	2.14%	20.41%	13.64%
NJR	76 Outperform	$4.61B	11.12	17.83%	3.92%	20.30%	63.69%
SR	72 Outperform	$4.53B	18.89	7.30%	4.05%	-7.10%	2.54%
NWN	71 Outperform	$1.65B	16.43	7.36%	4.79%	3.88%	11.80%
OGS	71 Outperform	$4.38B	17.64	8.08%	3.65%	7.73%	2.36%
SWX	68 Neutral	$5.64B	25.13	6.49%	3.16%	-10.78%	16.27%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$16.87B	17.02	4.48%	3.26%	4.72%	5.95%

ONE Gas Corporate Events

ONE Gas to Release Q2 2025 Financial Results

On July 2, 2025, ONE Gas announced it will release its second quarter 2025 financial results on August 5, 2025, after market close. The company will host a conference call the following day, August 6, 2025, to discuss the results, which will be accessible via their website. This announcement is part of ONE Gas’s ongoing efforts to maintain transparency with stakeholders and provide timely updates on its financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

ONE Gas Announces Senior Leadership Transition

On July 1, 2025, ONE Gas announced the retirement of Joseph L. McCormick, its senior vice president, general counsel, and assistant secretary, effective October 1, 2025. Regina L. Gregory will succeed him, initially serving as a senior advisor from July 16, 2025, before assuming McCormick’s roles upon his retirement. McCormick has been a pivotal figure in the company for over 20 years, significantly influencing its legal and strategic direction. Gregory, with extensive experience in legal and corporate leadership, is expected to maintain the company’s high standards and contribute strategically to its future.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

ONE Gas to Participate in European Investment Forums

ONE Gas announced on June 9, 2025, that it will participate in the American Gas Association and Jefferies Europe Mini-Forum on June 16-17, 2025, in London and Zurich. The company’s executives, including the CEO and CFO, will engage with the investment community, potentially enhancing the company’s visibility and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

ONE Gas to Present at Mizuho Mid-Cap Conference

On June 3, 2025, ONE Gas announced its participation in the Mizuho Mid-Cap Utilities Conference in New York City on June 5, 2025. The company’s executives, including the CEO and CFO, will engage with the investment community, highlighting ONE Gas’s strategic positioning and possibly impacting investor perceptions and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

ONE Gas Announces Key Decisions at Shareholder Meeting

ONE Gas held its annual shareholder meeting on May 22, 2025, where several key decisions were made. The election of directors resulted in the appointment of nine individuals to serve one-year terms, and the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, was ratified. Additionally, the advisory vote on executive compensation was approved by a majority of the shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

ONE Gas Enters Forward Sale Agreement with JPMorgan

On May 8, 2025, ONE Gas, Inc. entered into a forward sale agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank for 2,500,000 shares of its common stock, with settlement expected by December 31, 2026. Additionally, the company signed an underwriting agreement with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC for a public offering of the same number of shares, with an option for an additional 375,000 shares, marking a strategic move to enhance its financial flexibility and market presence.

The most recent analyst rating on (OGS) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONE Gas stock, see the OGS Stock Forecast page.

ONE Gas Announces Public Offering of Common Stock

On May 8, 2025, ONE Gas, Inc. announced its plan to conduct a public offering of 2,500,000 shares of its common stock. The company intends to enter into a forward sale agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank and grant an option to purchase an additional 375,000 shares. This move is expected to provide financial flexibility for general corporate purposes, including debt repayment and investments, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

ONE Gas Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results

On May 5, 2025, ONE Gas announced its first quarter financial results, reporting a net income of $119.4 million, an increase from the previous year. The company expects to achieve the upper half of its 2025 financial guidance and declared a quarterly dividend of 67 cents per share, payable on June 3, 2025. Despite colder weather, the impact on income was mitigated by regulatory mechanisms. The company also highlighted ongoing regulatory activities, including rate increase requests in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, and plans for significant capital investments in system integrity and expansion projects.