ONE Gas (OGS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.65B
• Dividend Yield: 3.46%
• Average Volume (3M): 381.14K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.13
• Revenue Growth: 15.06%
• EPS Growth: 12.27%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,900
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Regulated Gas
• EPS (TTM): 0.44
• Shares Outstanding: 59,999,043
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 311,086
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 381,141
• PEG Ratio: -3.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.27
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.89
• P/FCF Ratio: -11.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.63
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.68
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.95
• 1Y Price Target: $87.33
• Price Target Upside: 12.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $85.00 ▲(9.63% Upside)

ONE Gas's overall stock score reflects a solid financial performance with strong revenue growth and operational efficiency. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, but the company's valuation is fair, supported by a reasonable P/E ratio and dividend yield. Positive earnings call highlights and strategic corporate events further bolster the company's growth prospects, despite challenges with rising costs and rate case delays.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth from new rates and customer expansion highlights the company's ability to enhance its market presence and drive long-term financial performance.

Infrastructure Investment

The new pipeline project positions ONE Gas as a key infrastructure provider, supporting regional economic growth and enhancing energy reliability, which strengthens its market position.

Liquidity Enhancement

Increased credit facility enhances financial flexibility and supports strategic investments, ensuring the company can capitalize on growth opportunities and maintain operational stability.

Negative Factors

Rising Operating Costs

Rising operating costs, driven by higher labor expenses, could pressure margins and impact profitability, challenging the company's ability to maintain cost efficiency.

Rate Case Delays

Delays in rate case decisions can hinder revenue growth and cash flow, affecting financial planning and potentially limiting investment in infrastructure and services.

High Debt Levels

High debt levels can strain financial resources and limit flexibility, posing risks to long-term stability if not managed effectively, especially in a rising interest rate environment.

ONE Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ONE Gas, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a regulated natural gas distribution utility company in the United States. The company operates through three divisions: Oklahoma Natural Gas, Kansas Gas Service, and Texas Gas Service. It provides natural gas distribution services to 2.2 million customers in three states. It serves residential, commercial, and transportation customers. As of December 31, 2021, it operated approximately 41,600 miles of distribution mains; and 2,400 miles of transmission pipelines, as well as had 51.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas storage capacity. ONE Gas, Inc. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

How the Company Makes Money

ONE Gas generates revenue primarily through the sale and distribution of natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company's revenue model is based on the regulated utility framework, where it earns income through the delivery of natural gas and associated services, which are subject to oversight by state regulatory commissions. Key revenue streams include monthly customer charges, usage-based fees, and additional services such as new service installations. Furthermore, OGS benefits from significant partnerships with producers and suppliers of natural gas, as well as strategic collaborations for infrastructure projects. Factors contributing to its earnings include overall demand for natural gas, regulatory decisions affecting pricing, and investments in technology to improve operational efficiency and customer service.

ONE Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ONE Gas demonstrates solid revenue growth and operational efficiency, with strong gross margins. However, profitability could be improved, and high debt levels pose potential risks. Cash flow management needs attention, as negative free cash flow could impact future investments and financial flexibility.

Income Statement

ONE Gas shows a stable revenue growth trajectory with a recent TTM revenue growth rate of 1.66%. The gross profit margin has improved significantly to 59.02% in TTM, indicating better cost management. However, the net profit margin remains relatively stable at around 10.76%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting efficient operations.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is slightly over 1, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity is modest at 8.06%, showing stable returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is reasonable, suggesting a solid asset base. However, the high debt levels could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is positive, but free cash flow is negative, indicating potential liquidity challenges. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, reflecting a decline in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, suggesting that earnings are not fully translating into cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.37B	2.08B	2.37B	2.58B	1.81B	1.53B
Gross Profit	986.87M	775.11M	729.08M	646.65M	583.91M	561.71M
EBITDA	761.01M	703.17M	666.90M	574.25M	514.28M	495.38M
Net Income	254.94M	222.85M	231.23M	221.74M	206.43M	196.41M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.50B	8.43B	7.77B	7.78B	8.40B	6.03B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	11.61M	57.99M	18.84M	9.68M	8.85M	7.99M
Total Debt	3.40B	3.33B	3.05B	3.23B	4.18B	2.00B
Total Liabilities	5.32B	5.32B	5.01B	5.19B	6.05B	3.80B
Stockholders Equity	3.18B	3.10B	2.77B	2.58B	2.35B	2.23B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-116.80M	-334.75M	272.90M	961.36M	-2.03B	-109.65M
Operating Cash Flow	598.45M	368.41M	939.53M	1.57B	-1.54B	364.50M
Investing Cash Flow	-729.12M	-707.50M	-669.64M	-614.11M	-501.08M	-470.37M
Financing Cash Flow	122.70M	378.23M	-248.63M	-947.46M	2.04B	96.01M

ONE Gas Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 77.53
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OGS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 77.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 79.65, below the 50-day MA of 80.45, and above the 200-day MA of 75.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.87 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OGS.

ONE Gas Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SWX	74 Outperform	$5.82B	12.57	5.42%	3.08%	-23.15%	157.45%
NWN	73 Outperform	$1.93B	18.51	7.20%	4.22%	11.27%	20.04%
UGI	70 Outperform	$8.18B	12.32	14.87%	3.94%	1.10%	140.04%
SR	69 Neutral	$4.87B	18.89	8.20%	3.85%	-4.50%	2.49%
OGS	69 Neutral	$4.65B	18.07	8.51%	3.46%	15.06%	12.27%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
NJR	64 Neutral	$4.67B	13.91	14.62%	3.99%	13.94%	13.93%

ONE Gas Corporate Events

ONE Gas expands commercial paper program to boost liquidity

On December 17, 2025, ONE Gas increased the size of its unsecured commercial paper program, raising the maximum aggregate principal amount of notes outstanding at any time from $1.35 billion to $1.50 billion, while leaving all other terms and conditions of the program unchanged. The move expands the company’s short-term financing capacity, potentially enhancing its liquidity and financial flexibility, although the commercial paper notes will continue to be offered only in transactions exempt from registration under U.S. securities laws and do not constitute a public offering.

ONE Gas launches major Oklahoma natural gas pipeline project

On December 18, 2025, ONE Gas, Inc. announced a joint infrastructure initiative to build a 43-mile, large-diameter natural gas pipeline in southeast Oklahoma to support economic growth and enhance energy reliability in the region. The $150–$160 million project, of which ONE Gas will invest about $120 million, will connect the Bennington Natural Gas Hub to Western Farmers Electric Cooperative’s Hugo Plant near Fort Towson, enabling delivery of more than 100 billion cubic feet of natural gas annually to fuel 400 megawatts of natural gas-fired generation by 2029 as the first phase of WFEC’s long-term resource plan; the pipeline, to be installed and operated by Oklahoma Natural Gas, is expected to be completed by the third quarter of 2028, positioning ONE Gas as a key energy infrastructure provider for the plant and surrounding communities.

ONE Gas to Attend Investor Conferences in December

On December 2, 2025, ONE Gas announced its participation in several investor conferences in New York City, scheduled for December 8-10, 2025. Key executives, including the CEO, CFO, and COO, will engage with the investment community, with conference materials available on the company’s website.

ONE Gas Raises 2026 Financial Guidance and EPS Growth

On December 1, 2025, ONE Gas announced its 2026 financial guidance, raising its long-term diluted earnings per share growth rate to 5% to 7%. The company expects 2026 net income between $294 million and $302 million, with capital investments primarily focused on system integrity and replacement projects. Over the next five years, capital investments are projected to be $800 million to $900 million annually, supporting a 7% to 9% average rate base growth per year through 2030. The announcement reflects ONE Gas’s strategy to leverage customer growth opportunities while maintaining commitments to safety and affordability, positioning the company for sustainable growth.

ONE Gas Announces Board Chair Retirement

On November 18, 2025, ONE Gas announced the retirement of John W. Gibson as chair of the board, effective May 21, 2026, after the company’s Annual Meeting of Shareholders. Gibson, who has served since the company’s inception in 2014, will be succeeded by Deborah A. P. Hersman. Hersman, a seasoned leader with a background in safety and governance, joined the board in 2023 and her election is expected to enhance the board’s strategic focus and diversity. This leadership transition follows a comprehensive succession planning process, aligning with ONE Gas’s commitment to operational excellence and sustainable growth.

ONE Gas Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

On November 3, 2025, ONE Gas announced its third-quarter financial results, highlighting a net income increase to $26.5 million from $19.3 million in the same quarter of 2024, and narrowed its 2025 financial guidance. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.67 per share, payable on December 1, 2025. The results reflect disciplined strategy execution and operational efficiency, with increased operating income driven by new rates and customer growth, despite higher expenses in depreciation, taxes, and employee costs. Regulatory activities in 2025 included rate cases and infrastructure program filings in Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma, with new rates expected to take effect in 2026.

ONE Gas Secures $1.5 Billion Credit Facility

On October 30, 2025, ONE Gas, Inc. entered into a third amended and restated credit agreement with Bank of America and other lenders, establishing a $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility. This agreement, which can be increased by up to $750 million, will support the company’s working capital, capital expenditures, and other corporate purposes, potentially enhancing its operational flexibility and market positioning.

ONE Gas Announces Q3 2025 Financial Results Release

On September 30, 2025, ONE Gas announced it will release its third quarter 2025 financial results on November 3, 2025, followed by a conference call on November 4, 2025. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial health and future outlook, impacting its market positioning and investor relations.